Top Five Reason McJayGate Got So Bad

March was Crazy for Bronco fans. The drama surronding the franchise was tiring and upsetting. Who is to blame in this situation? Cutler or McDaniels? Answer: Both and then some. This is a list that proves that the Jay Cutler vs. Josh McDaniels saga, dubbed McJayGate, wasn’t just their fault. Many other people caused this situation, and not all are from within the organization. So without anymore wait, let’s get started.

Is Joe Flacco “The Answer”?

The main question surrounding the Baltimore Ravens from this past season has been whether or not Joe Flacco is the answer in Baltimore.

The Ravens finished the season 11-5, and Joe Flacco put up impressive numbers (2,971 yrds 14 TDs, 12 Ints , 11 fumbles, 2 lost) despite having a mediocre receiving corp. This wasn’t enough for the critics, as some still believe that Joe Flacco is a bust.

They say that his success is because of that stifling defense, when it is the other way around. The defense’s success is caused by the performance of this Quarterback. Take a look at the Raven’s past seasons, and Quarterbacks, statistically.

In 2004, Kyle Boller was given the reigns for the full season. The Ravens have been pretty much a run first team up to this point, which takes the pressure off the QB. They had a one-two punch at running back, with Jamal Lewis putting up over 1,000 yards and Chester Taylor with over 700.

The Defense was as good as they could have been with such an inconsistent Quarterback, ranking sixth in the league in total defense. In 2004, the defense was constantly bailing out Boller. If the guy wasn’t throwing interceptions, he was fumbling it; totaling 18 turnovers by his lonesome.

Boller was very fickle. In five games he would have 200+ yards, in four he would have under 100. You didn’t know which guy was going to show up day to day.

In 2005, Boller had suffered an injury. He returned in week 10, and showed some promise, as he outplayed Favre on Monday Night Football. He wouldn’t get the chance the next season as the Ravens brought in veteran Steve McNair.

McNair proved that the Ravens were ready for the big time, all they needed was a quarterback to not lose the game for them.

Steve McNair put up stellar numbers (3,050 yrds, 16 TDs, 12 Ints and lost only one Fumble that year). The Ravens went 13-3 due to the consistent play of Steve McNair, and the Ravens defense was able to get there rest when they needed it.

Baltimore had the number one total defense that year.

The next season McNair’s age started getting to him, and he was injured a majority of the season. This led to Boller stepping back in, where he again showed that he wasn’t the guy in Baltimore.

McNair retired that off-season.

In the offseason, the Ravens got a call from one of their scouts, who took a trip to Delaware because he has been hearing about this kid with a cannon for an arm. A few months later, the Ravens were calling his name in the draft, and at the open of the 2008 season he was their starter.

The Raven’s will always have a good defense, no one predicts that falling off anytime soon. The running games steps up with big boy McClain, McGahee and rookie Ray Rice.

Joe Flacco had a great season for a rookie, and he has a strong arm. As long as the Coaches continue to work on his mechanics, he will become a better quarterback.

I say that because the kid is still raw.

He put up numbers close to that of Steve McNair’s 2006 season, and the Ravens were the number two defense in the league. Diet Pepsi got it right when they chose him as the rookie of the year.

Joe Flacco is the answer. BELIEVE IT!

Part I. Myth and Facts About Al Davis’ Draft History: Wide Receivers

Al Davis rarely drafts skill positions in the first round of drafts. The exception to that rule have been defensive backs who Davis has always put premium value on.

Because of his history the many mocks with the Oakland Raiders taking Crabtree, Maclin or Darius Heyward-Bey show how little attention Al Davis’ detractors have really paid to how he does things, and the “crazy” rules that he is accused of following in his draft room are based on their imagination. 

Myth: All Al Davis cares about is 40 times.

Reality: Al Davis like a number of other “SUCCESSFUL” GMs and teams does follow certain speed, height and weight criteria for certain positions. Wide receiver has traditionally been one those positions, that Davis has placed a premium value on “explosive speed”…. not just great top end speed but the ability to reach it in a blink of eye.

However, the reality is that Al Davis has traditionally shied away from high profile wide receiver in the draft. The last high profile wide receiver he drafted was Tim Brown.

Brown had everything Davis likes, he was a 6 foot-plus 200 pound speedster who ran the 40 in the mid 4.3s. He had added value as a great kick returner.

In fact, I would argue he was a better kick returner then wide receiver at Notre Dame because of the rather pass deficient offense he played in for four years. Al Davis also liked his pedigree as a Heisman winner on a National Championship team. In big moments, Tim Brown made big plays. 

Crabtree and Maclin are nice college wide receivers but neither has anything that Davis doesn’t think he cannot find in a wide receiver in later rounds. Davis prefers to go off the grid for wide receivers.

My hunch is that he believes high profile wide receivers are often high profile for all the wrong reasons. For example, big stats in a pin ball machine offense that has no relationship to what the prospect will be expected to adapt to as a professional.

In the first two rounds of the draft (unless Darius Heyward-Bey drops to them at #40) the Raiders will draft linemen and defensive backs. A wide receiver will likely not be a concern until the third or fourth round of the draft.

It should also be noted that the Raiders are already flush with Davis’ type of wide receiving prospects; Johnny Lee Higgens (Round 3 in 07), Jonathan Holland (Round 7 in 07), Chaz Schilens (Round 7 in 08), and Arman Shields (Round 4 in 08). If the Raiders draft a wide receiver, or two, look for names like Johnny Knox and Dudley Guice to be called in rounds 4 and 7.  

Longer NFL Season Means More Running Back-by-Committee Headaches

NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has expressed that he would like to see the league eliminate two of its preseseason games, and extend the regular season to 17 or 18 games. Although these are only preliminary discussions, there is a possibility that we could see two more regular season games in the not so distant future.

It seems that the  NFL owners are on board with this idea because two more regular season games would mean more dollars in their pockets in a time when the sports economy is, as Joe Namath would say, “Strug-gel- ing.”

With two more regular season games we get a longer fantasy season, and we get to bid farewell to some meaningless preseason football. Any true football fan has to be excited about the possibility.

More real football in the same amount of time. Instead of two weeks of watching practice squadders go at it while coaches hold their collective breath in hopes that some catastrophic injury doesn’t occur, we will have two more weeks of regular season play.

There are a lot of positive things that could come from an extended regular season for fantasy football leagues.

In fact, I believe that I could talk until I was blue in the face, but I would never convince most fantasy owners that this is a bad idea in any way. If you are reading this article, you probably fall under the category of “if this means more fantasy football then it can’t be bad.”

You’re the type that is excited by the fact that the yearly fantasy draft will have to be pushed up a couple of weeks, prematurely ending the dog days of summer. Talking fantasy football over the grill at your Fourth of July party won’t be overly fantasy geeky anymore.

And you’ve already calculated, that at his 2007 pace, Tom Brady would have had 56.25 passing TDs!

Other than merely bringing us more of our beloved football, extending the regular season by a couple weeks will mean some good things for our fantasy leagues that we might have not thought about.

For instance, two more regular season games will help separate the contenders from the pretenders in the standings. Maybe it won’t make a substantial difference, but any time a season is lengthened the really good teams will come out in the wash.

Look at it as a chance to catch that team that has used smoke and mirrors to pass you in the standings.

I know that it doesn’t completely numb the pain, but a longer regular season makes the words “out 3-4 weeks” sound just a little bit less terrible. More games would give owners a better chance to bounce back from the injury bug.

After all, nothing is more frustrating than drafting the perfect team and missing the playoffs by a game because of an injury to a key component. If you’ve ever owned Brian Westbrook you know exactly what I am talking about.

Without question, there are some great things that could come from an 18 week NFL regular season for fantasy footballers. But if we break it down a little further, one can find some drawbacks as well.

So what negative could come of this?

Three simple words. Running back-by-committee.

I’m not sure if one is supposed to hyphenate those words, but it is rather symbolic to do so. Three words locked together to do the job that one word should probably be doing. I mean, we need to get some kind of ruling on this.

Do we abbreviate the term? This would also be symbolic. RBC…It has a ring to it. It sounds just like what it happens to be. A terrible disease that has spread throughout fantasy football.

Perhaps the most frustrating aspect of NFL coaches deploying RBC’s it that it makes so much football sense to do so. Keep your stud running back fresh and healthy for a grinding season. I get it. It makes perfect sense for any NFL franchise with enough talent or specialists to get away with it.

As much sense as it makes, RBC is spreading. And it is slowly killing fantasy football as we know it.

There used to be a time when you drafted a runningback and had a very good idea of exactly what you were getting into. Each NFL team seemed to have one fantasy relavent workhorse running back. You might have an explosive third down back or goal line specialist here and there, but the running back landscape was pretty much transparent.

These days, it seems like more of a crap shoot. Will Darren McFadden take the full load away from Justin Fargas? What would  Adrian Peterson be like carrying an Emmitt Smith-like load? 12 different NFL teams used some kind of committee approach in the NFL last season.

And if the season gets any longer, I can assure you that more teams will adopt this practice. Besides, this is the copycat league. After all, who didn’t run the “Wildcat” formation at some point last year.

I came down with a couple of cases of RBC last year myself. I took McFadden and Fargas and ended up trading both of them. That paid off.

On the other hand, I rode the Deangelo Williams roller coaster for a few weeks before becoming ill, trading him away, and becoming even more ill when he tore up the NFL over the last half of the season. Then and there I vowed to never get exposed to RBC again.  

So how is fantasy football forever changed with a longer NFL schedule? For the last 20 years I witnessed running back laced first rounds in every fantasy draft in which I’ve been involved. That was until last year.

Last year I witnessed seasoned fantasy owners changing their drafting guidelines and going with a wide receivers or quarterbacks in the first couple of rounds.

It seems as if now there are a handful of stud fantasy running backs that get drafted in the top of the first round, and then there are a bunch of time sharing run of the mill backs. RBC had infected our otherwise predictable draft.

This isn’t your dad’s fantasy league anymore. RBC has pretty much equalized all of the big three positions in fantasy football drafts. With more leagues going to point-per-reception formats, wide receivers are becoming more prevalent in the first round.

Quarterbacks are gaining value simply due to the fact that runningbacks are losing value in timeshare situations.

I myself am torn on the issue. I would love more meaningful games in a season’s time, but on the other hand, I completely despise RBC’s as they relate to my fantasy team and drafting strategy.

Either way, as fantasy owners it is out of our hands. We will have to wait and see what the league does and adjust accordingly. Many of us have prayed that RBC’s will simply go away.

We hope that it is a fad that comes and goes like the run-and-shoot offense. But if the league decides to have more regular season games RBC will become a way of life. And much like the dinosaur, the dodo bird, and hair bands, the stud fantasy running back will be extinct.

The Eagles 2009 Draft Blueprint is Still Being Designed

We’re four weeks away from the 10 year anniversary of Andy Reid’s very first draft pick.  The selection of quarterback Donovan McNabb with the No. 2 overall pick is one that set a foundation for the franchise that still exists to this day.

Regardless of the jeers the Eagles received for overlooking gunja connoisseur Ricky Williams, picking McNabb was by far the right choice.

Whether you like it or not, McNabb continues to be the face of the Philadelphia’s beloved football team.  While he has yet to achieve the ultimate goal, he’s still the most successful signal caller this team has had since Norm Van Brocklin.

As a gift for the 10 year anniversary, the Eagles have received an abundance of draft picks to continue their quest for the Vince Lombardi trophy. 

Currently they have 12 draft picks, but to predict how the Eagles will pick players with those picks is just scratching the surface.  Mock drafts never take into consideration trade possibilities.

Don’t be surprised if you hear as many announcements about the Eagles making trades as you hear who they’ve selected.  There’s still a chance that more veterans will be shipped to another team. 

Be prepared for at least one guy you think is a great fit will be overlooked.  Four weeks from now, the Eagles front office will be highly active. Stay tuned…

NFC North: Three Reasons Why Each Team Has a Chance in 2009

The NFL is always changing.  Look at the Arizona Cardinals.  They were perennially one of the worst teams in the league only to make it to the Super Bowl in 2008. One year a team can be the worst, the next year they are the best.  Is it the Lions year in 2009?  I don’t think so, but here are three reasons to hope for each team in 2009.

Chicago Bears

1) They still have the core of dominant defense if they can get back into form.

2) Kyle Orton and Matt Forte provided enough of an offensive spark to go with their defense.

3) Devin Hester is still always one play away from changing the course of a game.

Green Bay Packers

1) The switch to a 3-4 defense will suit their play-makers on defense.

2) Aaron Rodgers has another year of experience under his belt and still has the most talented group of wide receivers in the NFC north.

3) No one is talking about Brett Favre anymore.

Minnesota Vikings

1) Retained almost all of the players from the 2008 Division Championship Team.

2) Tarvaris Jackson has another year of experience, and they have a better backup if he does not work out again.

3) Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league.

Detroit Lions

1) Matt Millen is gone.

2) Culpepper to Johnson is almost as exciting as Culpepper to Moss was.

3) They got new uniforms (there really aren’t three reasons why the Lions have a chance).

So, who will it be?

Evaluating the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2008 and Assessing 2009: Tight End

Ever since the rise in popularity of the West-Coast Offense in the ’80s and ’90s, everyone has heard the notion of how important the tight end position is.

Interestingly, since Chad Lewis retired after the 2004 season, the Eagles haven’t really had one.

One of the most curious decisions of Andy Reid’s career had to be the franchising of L.J. Smith. Smith was coming off of a terrible 2007 season, and 2008 was really no better.

In 12 starts, he had no games with more than 49 receiving yards and six games with less than 20 yards.  Four times he had one reception or less. Smith averaged a paltry 8.1 yards per reception.

Last year, Smith earned an average of the top five tight end salaries in the league.  Even if the $4.5 million was spread over the past two seasons, he was still not worth it.  Combine his ’07 and ’08 totals, and they wouldn’t be that impressive over one season.

The past two years, Smith has 59 receptions, 534 yards and 4 touchdowns. In 2008, six tight ends had more than 59 receptions, 14 tight ends had more than 534 yards, and nine caught more than four touchdowns passes.

Add in the postseason, and it is even more maddening. The Eagles played three playoff games, and Smith caught just three passes for 17 yards.

The lack of production as a receiver would be forgivable if he was a good blocker.  Well, he isn’t. Smith is 6’3″ and 258 pounds with a thick lower body. Despite his physical makeup, he is completely unable to hold up in the running game.

In the third quarter of the Eagles’ 10-3 Week 16 loss to the Redskins, Smith completely missed a block on a screen pass that would have sprung Brian Westbrook for a game-tying touchdown. 

Needless to say, the tight end position is improved solely by the fact that L.J. Smith will never line up there again. But aside from his defection to Baltimore, there is another reason to be optimistic.

If you look at Brent Celek’s numbers, there isn’t much to be impressed about. He had 27 receptions for 318 yards and one touchdown. Look a little further and you will see the truth.

Celek was clearly the backup tight end in 2008, but he became the starter in week 17 against the Cowboys. It is easy to overlook his three catches for 30 yards and a touchdown in that 44-6 win over Dallas, but it was a sign of things to come.

Over those final four games, including three in the postseason, Celek caught an impressive 22 passes for 181 yards and four touchdowns, three in goal line situations.

At 6’4″, 255 pounds, Celek has similar dimensions to Smith, but lacks the lower body strength. Celek is not a blocker either, but he has reliable hands, and has some ability after the catch.

If Celek enters 2009 as the starter, it will be an upgrade. He may lack the athleticism and upside of Smith, but he has the consistency that Smith could never achieve. 

While Celek will likely help improve the red-zone offense, the team needs to find a big blocking tight end to do the same for the running game.

There really are no tight ends of note left on the free agent market, so they will likely need to address this in the draft.  Among the top tier of tight end prospects, only Brandon Pettigrew is a good blocker.

Shawn Nelson of Southern Miss is an athlete along the lines of L.J. Smith, but at 6’5″, 240 pounds, lacks bulk and strength at the point of attack. Scouts noted that his blocking ability was better than expected at the Senior Bowl, and he displayed a surprising willingness to do the dirty work in the trenches.

Another popular scenario for improving at tight end is the possibility of trading for Kansas City Chiefs star, Tony Gonzalez. 

At 33-years-old, Gonzalez doesn’t seem to fit what the Eagles like to do. They would likely have to part with at least a third round pick.  Despite the fact that it doesn’t seem like an “Eagles move,” it would be an exciting one.

Gonzalez has shown no signs of slowing down, going over 90 catches and over 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons. In 2008, he posted 10 touchdown receptions for the first time since 2003.

Despite his advanced age, Gonzalez remains one of the best athletes and most productive players at the position. His height and receiving ability would instantly upgrade the offense as would his desire to win.

No matter what the Eagles ultimately decide to do, they need to add some depth to the position. If Celek is going to be the starter, they need a better backup than Matt Schobel. If they add Gonzalez, they still need a blocker.

Tight end is still one of the most uncertain positions on the roster, but one thing that is certain is this: There is nowhere to go but up.

Next up: Offensive line.

Updated Jacksonville Jaguars Draft Need Assessment

The Jaguars are coming off of a rather disappointing 5-11 season, and are thusly the recipients of the eighth overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.

Lots of criticism has been levied at the Jaguars for their questionable use of their first round picks in the last several drafts. These picks have included Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, and Byron Leftwich, none of whom remain in Jacksonville today.

The Jaguars have a big decision to make regarding most effective use of the eighth pick. One the one hand, they can trade down and attempt to accumulate picks in the later rounds of the draft.

On the other hand, the Jaguars can draft the best available player with the eighth pick and then trade that player if he doesn’t fit their needs or keep him if he does.

Ideally, the Jaguars would love to acquire a legitimate left tackle with the pick, but chances are there won’t be one available who is worthy of the 8th overall selection and the money expected accordingly.

Some candidates are:

Michael Oher:

This boy is big, and he played exceedingly well at Ol’ Miss, but he’s also not in my opinion worthy of the eighth overall selection. This may be something that could happen if the Jags traded down.

Andre Smith:

Smith was great in college, and was expected to be the highest rated offensive lineman coming into this draft. But his epic fail at the combine and equally mediocre pro day has all but killed his draft stock. If the Jaguars take Smith it will be a real reach.

Percy Harvin:

Harvin is a game changer, the kind of player that consistently has the ability to score on every play. One concern, though, is Harvin’s upright running style and lack of durability. He also may not be worth the money that an eighth pick will undoubtedly demand.

Matthew Stafford:

If the Lions and the 49ers both pass up on Stafford, which they are expected to do, he will most likely fall to the Jaguars spot.

Stafford is a very, very intelligent quarterback with great NFL caliber skills, and the Jaguars made the mistake of passing on Ben Roethlisberger in 2003 because they didn’t feel that they needed a quarterback at the time. If Stafford falls to the Jags, they may very well draft him.

Mark Sanchez:

The second best quarterback in the draft figures to be available at the eighth spot, and he’s another intelligent quarterback with definite NFL caliber skills. The Jaguars aren’t as interested in Sanchez as they are in Stafford, though, so he may not be selected if he’s available for the Jags.

The most important thing for the Jaguars to do is to not, under any circumstances, waste the eighth pick. This is an opportunity for the team to bring aboard a difference maker, and they are certainly in need of one.

The AFC East: A Pre-Draft Mock Season

The offseason has been one of much drama, many changes, and minimal boredom. All things considered, there are still a lot of loose ends to be tied and plenty of unanswered questions. Heck, the draft has not even happened yet! Still, I could not resist. Before draft day, I am going to attempt a crack at a mock season for each NFL division, giving my thoughts and analysis on each team and how they will fare during 2009 regular season play. I intend to do a similar mock season immediately following the draft, and another after the preseason as well.

Without further adieu, I will start with what has become one of the most interesting divisions in all of football: The AFC East.

First Impressions:

It is incredibly hard to come to any concrete conclusions at this stage in the game for any team, but perhaps more than any other, the AFC East is filled with terribly vexing questions.

What kind of effect will Terrell Owens have on the Bills? What will become of Marshawn Lynch? How will Tom Brady play after coming off a season-ending injury? Will Julius Peppers join the Patriots, and if so, what implications does it have for their pass-rushing? In the absence of Brett Favre, Laveranues Coles, and Eric Mangini, what strategy will the Jets employ to manage yet another rebuilding season? And how will the 2007 disaster gone 2008 division champs and innovators of the chic “Wildcat” offense continue to expand and expound upon new offensive strategies?

Buffalo Bills

The Bills have traditionally been a curious bunch: Four consecutive Super Bowls and no ring to show for it. I mean, who would expect the Bills to give in to convention?

This club is a crew that turned heads at the beginning of last season, boasting a 5-1 record, only to turn it right back around and finish at the bottom of the division, 7-9. Following that fiasco, breakout RB Marshawn Lynch is caught sporting a piece, and out of the blue, the man who is arguably the greatest drama queen in the NFL, (save for maybe Jay Cutler) is announced as the newest addition to the roster.

All that said, I do think the Bills will have the talent to improve their 7-9 record from last season, but to do so, they will have to overcome the burden of a tough schedule.

Internal Analysis:

Terrell Owens. Much of the talk surrounding the Bills this offseason has to do with this Wide Receiver with an attitude who has been known to be a “poison” in the locker room.

Call me crazy, but something about TO in Buffalo does not bother me. It just seems to fit. First off, the tandem of Terrell Owens and Lee Evans is tantalizing, and when the pass game is supplemented by a Pro-Bowl runner like Marshawn Lynch, things can light up. Trent Edwards has had his bleak moments at quarterback, but I attribute it more to the lack of protection he is given against the pass-rush than his incompetence at the position. The offensive playmakers seem to be in place.

However, there are certainly areas lacking on the roster. Defensive shortfalls, such as the complete meltdown against the Jets in week 15 coupled with the aforementioned insufficiencies on the Offensive Line will inevitably mar and contradict the productive efforts of the offense.

Plus, Marshawn Lynch’s looming suspension has yet to be resolved. Depending on how much time Lynch will spend on the sideline, the Bills could end up looking like a one-dimensional offense like the pass-heavy Arizona Cardinals boasted against the Minnesota Vikings in week 15, when they were stomped 35-14.

External (Opponent) Analysis:

The AFC East was unique last year in that of the four teams, three had better records on the road than at home. Buffalo fit this description, which could pose a problem, as their away schedule appears to be tougher than the home schedule. The breakdown is as follows:

Home – Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, New England, New York Jets, and Miami

Away – Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Carolina, Kansas City, New England, New York Jets, and Miami

Looking at the division games, I would venture to say the Bills really only have a fighting chance against the Jets, though they could possibly split games with the Dolphins. As I will elaborate on later, the Patriots seem like the team that will soar to the top of the division this season, and the Bills will succumb to that heat.

The Bills will play against what could have been the strongest division in the NFL last season in the NFC South. The two games that they will play on the road are against the two teams that made the playoffs last season. Neither game will come easy, that is certain, but the Bills may be able to pull one win out of those two.

The home games are against New Orleans and Tampa Bay, who both fell to the bottom of the division last season, barely missing the playoffs. I have Buffalo taking the Buccaneers, who are going through radical changes after the firing of Gruden, releasing a large portion of their receiving core, and giving their quarterback up to the free agency. With New Orleans, it may come down to a battle of who can score the most points the fastest, as both teams will have highly productive offenses, but lack defensive stability. If it comes down to who can pack the largest offensive punch, however, I chose New Orleans.

The remaining home games are against a rising Houston club, a stable Indianapolis, and the ailing Cleveland browns. I pick the the Bills to go 1-2. Who do you think I chose Buffalo to beat?

Conversely, the remaining away games are a different story against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Kansas City, to which I can only speculate the Bills will win at least one, but not all three.

Optimistic Record: 8-8

Pessimistic Record: 5-11

My Gut Tells Me: 6-10

New York Jets

The Jets surprised the whole football community last season when they came out of the barrel smoking after a 4-12 regular season record in 2007. In fact, they shocked the world and were heralded by many to be the best team in football after clobbering the previously undefeated Tennessee Titans in week 12 by a score of 34-13. The momentum of the Jets lagged near the end of the season, however, as Brett Favre began to feel the harsh reality of his age catching up with him, and ultimately ended second from the bottom of the division sporting a mediocre 9-7 record, completely missing the playoffs.

As for next year, on the other hand, I do not really know where to start with the Jets. How about…not 9-7? The Jets really have not done anything in the offseason to convince me they are ready to seize the day…I mean, season.

Internal Analysis:

As far as I am concerned, the Jets are one time-tested, Super Bowl class quarterback and one solid receiver from where they were last season. Oh, and did I mention they have a new coach? Even with the cast of players they had last season, they were very hot-cold at times when it came to offensive production. Brett Favre waned back and forth between making big plays and throwing critical interceptions, and leaks in the defensive coverage seemed to drag the success of the team down, particularly at the end of the season.

This leaves the Jets with little more going for them than a fresh start—one which may prove to be ineffective in the long run.

External Analysis:

As the teams sit right now, the Jets’ schedule does not work in their favor. Of their 16 games, 11 are against teams that finished the 2008 season with .500 records or better. Of those 11, six will be played against teams that made the playoffs, and that excludes two games they will play against a New England team that, by some freak cosmic accident, did not make the playoffs in spite of a formidable 11-5 record. Here is the breakdown:

Home – Buffalo, Miami, New England, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Carolina

Away – Buffalo, Miami, New England, Indianapolis, Houston, Oakland, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay

I do not see the Jets pulling any upsets against the teams with winning records last season. In fact, games such as Oakland and Buffalo, I could see swinging south as well.

Oakland seemed to be a team that ultimately just could not get their feet under them, but they have untapped potential that could come into play this season. I could see this team pulling a win over a shifty NYJ.

Optimistic Record: 6-10

Pessimistic Record: 2-14

My Gut Tells Me: 4-12

New England Patriots

Bill Belichick is a prince among men. Well, at least in the coaching community. 

An injury-plagued Patriots team, led by fourth round, no-name college backup quarterback, Matt Cassel somehow found itself robbed of a playoff berth with an 11-5 regular season record. The team’s anchor, Tom Brady hit the turf and never returned after a week one injury that shocked the entire NFL community.

Yet through the unexpected uncertainty of a slow start to 2008, Belichick kept a level head, and consequently guided his team through the adversity to a commendable record.

Internal Analysis:

In 2009, I expect vengeance from a fully healthy Patriots team, joined once again by superstar Tom Brady.

Speaking of players joining the team, lets talk about Julius Peppers for a second. The NFL community was somewhat puzzled when reports announced Matt Cassel was traded to the Chiefs for merely a second round draft pick, and if that wasn’t enough, linebacker Mike Vrabel was going with him. Little did anyone know that the Patriots had it in the plan all along to free up cap space for defensive end, Julius Peppers.

If the trade is successful and Peppers joins the ranks of an already elite defensive unit, look for more aggression from the pass-rush, the linebacking core in particular, as Peppers would most likely be moved to a linebacker position in New England’s new 3-4 setup.

New England has very few changes on the roster, but those that have changed and will change are fundamental to the teams success. Ultimately, I believe those changes are for the better.

External Analysis:

Looking solely at 2008 regular season records, the Patriots have a tough road ahead. Formidable opponents include the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins. Twice.

Yet at the end of the day, the bottom line is that most of the tough opponents faced by the Pats also play against their division rivals. I am normally not one to make rash calls this early in the game, but I bite the bullet as I am calling it right now: the New England Patriots will win the AFC East in 2009. The breakdown:

Home – Miami, Buffalo, New York Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Carolina, and Baltimore

Away – Miami, Buffalo, New York Jets, Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Denver

The ultimate decision maker in this division will come down to which team can most effectively finish games. All teams within the division play tough games this season, and I think the Patriots will have the most efficient and effective tools to do just that.

A proven finisher like Tom Brady coupled with his proven receiving core in Randy Moss and Wes Welker will be solid. My concern is the running game.

I remember noting the aggressive running style of Lawrence Maroney when I watched Super Bowl XVII. Since the Giants rained all over that “indestructable” Patriots team’s parade in that game, I have not been able to make a similar remark. Since his injury in week 2 against the Jets, Moroney has done little to restore confidence in his ability to move the football.

That said, I do believe exceptional defense and stability on offense will be enough to win more tough games than any other team in the division.

On a side note, the game I find most interesting for the Patriots will be against New England’s former offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniel’s Denver Broncos, especially in leu of the controversy surrounding McDaniel’s relationship with Denver’s Pro Bowl quarterback, Jay Cutler.

I have a feeling that, in spite of all the drama surrounding the Broncos’ quarterback position, McDaniels will have more success than most initially anticipate. Regardless of who is starting at quarterback, McDaniel’s is one who is known to defy odds in that respect. If you need proof, just look at former no-namers Tom Brady and Matt Cassel.

Whoever starts should have a good chance to challenge Belichick’s Patriots.

But I digress.

Optimistic Record: 13-3

Pessimistic Record: 9-7

My Gut Tells Me: 11-5

Miami Dolphins

In 2007, the Miami Dolphins were on track to becoming the worst football team ever know to “grace” the National Football League before defeating the Baltimore Ravens in week 15, reserving the “title of shame” for the Detroit Lions in 2008.

Since the 2007 disaster, the Dolphins turned heads in 2008, hiring head coach Tony Sparanos, who responded to crisis by reinventing the term “offense” and leading the team to a commendable 11-5 record and their first division title in over a decade. I expect no less from the Dolphins in 2009.

Internal Analysis:

Chad Pennington restored confidence in his productivity this season with his uncanny ability to protect, protect, protect the football. Though he may not have a cannon of an arm or the scrambling ability reminiscent of a Michael Vick character, his ability to play smart football helps his ability to move the football.

Miami lacks a breakout receiving core, however, (Though Ted Ginn Jr. shows promise as a younger player). While I have tried to avoid draft speculation, as the spirit of this mock season is created void of draft ramifications, I would look for Miami to acquire a receiver in the draft.

Still, what made Miami a success last season had less to do with the amount of raw talent on the team, but on the innovation on the playcalling end. This is what concerns me going into 2009 for the Dolphins. Innovation is only innovation as long as it is unconventional.

It was clear as the season progressed in 2008 that more and more teams not only became deft at stopping Miami’s “Wildcat” offense, but many chose to integrate it into their playbooks as well. As teams become more familiar with Miami’s strategy, one or both of two things must happen: a) Playcalling must become more innovative, and b) Players must become better at executing conventional playing.

To their credit, I have confidence that Sparanos has the tools to accomplish both relatively effectively.

External Analysis:

Miami could very well have a chance at another division title, but they definitely have more variables that could limit their success than do the Patriots. At any rate, Here’s the breakdown:

Home – Buffalo, New York Jets, New England, Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and Pittsburg

Away – Buffalo, New York Jets, New England, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Atlanta, Carolina, and San Diego

The story is essentially the same as New England, with the pivotal question being, “How effective will Miami’s innovative playcalling be in 2009?” For that unanswered question, I expect a little less stability and/or consistency on a game-to-game basis.

There really is not much more to it than that.

Optimistic Record: 12-4

Pessimistic Record: 8-8

My Gut Tells Me: 10-6

Overview

The AFC East will prove to be a division full of surprises, though I do not expect the division battle to be as intense as last season, at least from a win-loss standpoint. Look for a battle between New England and Miami at the top with the Jets and Buffalo to fall more by the wayside.

Linger Longer: A Look At The NFL’s Top 20 Remaining Free Agents

The free agency pool still has a lot of talented players remaining on it. With a lot of teams hurting for space with the salary cap, these remaining top free agents are still waiting for a city to call home in 2009.

A lot of the big names like Haynesworth, Houshmandzadeh, and Dawkins have found new places to call home. And while their former teams and fanbases will miss them, they’ll leave their mark on their new teams, as will the players on this list of remaining unsigned free agents.

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