Green Bay Packers’ 2009 Draft-Day Trade Possibilities

When viewing the 2009 Packers needs and draft assets the first thing we look at is history and try to guess what Ted Thompson is thinking. 

The Packers have a rising young offense with a potential holes at the OT spot and TE depth required. The Defense changed styles, but clearly need size and depth on the DL, someone to bring pressure on the QB and a possible replacement for the CB spot. 

Only four true needs and a couple of wants.

Their draft assets pre-Apr. 25 are:

Pick No. 9  — 1350 pts

Pick No. 41 – 500 pts

Pick No. 73  — 225 pts

Pick No. 83 – 175 pts

Pick No. 108 —  78 pts

As you can see the four picks in the fifth, sixth, and seventh rounds do not have a great significance “points” wise, but are often use to try to balance the “points” system that is kind of used by teams in evaluating draft choices.

With a value of over 1000 points teams should get enough value from a player or players to change the face of games even seasons. Is there a player or players that change the face of the team that much with the No. 9 pick.

For Packers’ team needs in 2009, likely the only player that meets the value criteria is BJ Raji the BC nose tackle, but at present they may have to move up to get him. Do they have “value” to move up to get that player? 

Yes, but it is totally out of line with Thompson’s historical reaction in the draft.

My hypothesis is that the No. 9 pick is traded down to get two players to plug in. To get the right value, and let the other team “save face” for giving up too much for one player, the most likely trade is a two-for-two or more.

To get a trade done, both sides have to want it. If we assume for this moment, Packer want to trade down to get increased value at two or more spots rather than shooting for one impact player, they must find a trade partner with enough goods and needs to make a trade possible.

Without factoring in 2010 or further draft year choices, and only brushing on active roster players, the list of potential trade partners for the No. 9 pick is fairly short.

Philadelphia has picks 21, 28 and several more selections. N England has picks 23, 34 and many more selections.  NY Jets have 17, 52, 76, 111, and 114 which would be of interest.

NY Giants have 29, 45, 60 and roster players, who may have a lot of interest. Miami has picks 25, 44, 56 and 87. If a very major trade down is in the cards, one of these five teams is the group that has the most likely to have an attractive package for a “major trade.”

To entice a trade with one of these teams, there has to be a player on the board at the time of the selection that is deemed by the team to be the “target” for their team. 

Philadelphia may believe they are only a WR of impact proportion, or an OT that is a fixture away from a championship. They might trade up to grab Crabtree the WR, or they may have OT Oher or Smith ranked way higher than No. 9.

Packers looking to gain picks 21, 28 and give up a fourth or fifth rounder to balance could make great sense for both teams. I give this option about 15 percent.

New England may believe one CB or one rush DE is critical to success and have Jenkins or Arakpo or anther player as their target. Picks 23 and 34 are a near straight value trade for the No. 9 pick. This could make good sense to New England, who have an abundance of picks.

I give this option approaching 10 percent.

The Jets may see QB Sanchez as a franchise QB and have a great urgency to get ahead of say San Fransisco who may be targeting that player. Picks 17 and 52 are not far from value, and the “small change” on the side are something both teams could see as beneficial.

Again I see about 10 percent.

The NY Giants no doubt see a WR as critical to getting to the super bowl.  Crabtree could easily be the stimulus to get a trade done up to No. 9. While picks 29 and 45 do not add to the required value, they have a roster stacked with D linemen. (Barry Cofield pictured above.)

Certainly one of two or three of their DL could be seen as the extra “value” to make this happen. The teams already have a history, so this choice I rank highest at 15 – 20 percent. Each can fulfill the “need” on the other roster with the least pain to their own.

The Miami Dolphins are the last team with four picks in the first three rounds that “value” to the No. 9 may be a consideration. Sanchez could be the driver, and picks 25 and 44 are only a bit short, about a fifth rounder.

This is possible, but I have no inkling how high the Tuna may rank Sanchez.  Five – 10 percent.

Overall, I would project a “major trade” of the No. 9 pick for two picks or players rests in the vicinity of 50 – 60 percent. Those are the “major trade”  two for one type trades the No. 9 pick might bring.  

Teams only a few spots lower may look to trade up just a few positions to get ahead of another team for a specific player they feel may go. QB Sanchez, WR Crabtree, OL Oher and Smith, DL / LB Arakpo or Brown or CB Jenkins could trigger teams only a few spots lower to try to jump up.

Only five of the teams picking between 11 and 20 have “additional value” that would really allow them to make a move up. 

Buffalo with picks 11, 42, and 75 clearly have the extra value to do an up and down trade, but with the players on the board it seems unlikely that the OL or CB value would entice them to trade up. 

Also, historically not a franchise that makes many draft day moves. Denver with picks 12, 48, and 79 also have plenty of value with only 150 points required for the three spots move up.

With WR, and an entire defense in need, they are more likely to be trying to trade down, the wild card being Cutler but any trade involving him would already have netted the QB or an even higher draft choice. 

Chicago with picks 18, 48, and 84, despite the fact they are in the division have such a tremendous hole at WR and at DB and at OT…ouch, not likely they trade up, they need more picks, not less, they too should be trading down.

One position down to SF is unlikely unless SF were totally convinced Tampa, Denver was about to make the trade to move and grab Sanchez. This also assumes Sanchez is their pick. Less than five percent.

Washington at 13, New Orleans at 14 and San Diego at 16 likely do not have the other values to make a trade viable for the Packers. Picks 17 and 20 were traded from the original holders and discussed earlier.

Houston, with picks 15, 46 and 77, plus a GM that does make moves are clearly in the mix, and one of the DE / LB that bring QB pressure could be the enticement to get them to the top of their division.

So if Texas native Arakpo or Brown are on the board Houston could clearly want to get in front of SF, Buf, Denv, Wash, NO, or even the Packers themselves who could all be looking at their pick.

Fifteen, 77 and fourth rounder, or 15, 46, and them getting back one of the Packers’ third rounders gets a 10 – 15 percent chance.

Tampa Bay holds picks 19, 50, and 81. Clearly rebuilding and clearly in need of a franchise QB, Sanchez still on the board makes the No. 19 and 50 picks a very real possibility. This I give 10 – 15 percent, as they clearly see a need to get in front of SF if Sanchez is on the board.

Think of the Houston and Tampa Bay as minor trade options, but that brings seven teams into the mix as at least significantly possible. It is my opinion that there is at least a 60 – 70 percent chance the Packers trade down from No. 9 to one of the seven named teams.

It is my feeling that Thompson and the Packer management are looking at two DL, one LB with pass rush skills and an OL in the first three rounds. They have four picks there already, so I expect they are trying to tweak things to get their greatest perceived value into those four spots.

While it may or may not fall into the categories I listed above I am about 95 percent certain we will see moves other than simply taking the four picks they currently have in those positions on draft weekend. 

Thompson has shown a significant leaning to second rounders. 

If he cannot move the No. 9 pick to acquire a second pick in the second round, I could easily see roster players (Poppinga, Chillar and Wells come to mind) used in conjunction with lower round picks the two thirds, fourth, and fifth, and two sixth rounders to ensure at least four picks in the top 64. 

With a roster that it is unlikely more than four or five draft picks can even crack, I can see movement to have less picks, but higher quality. This is the year they finally have enough depth and balance to not simply “build for the future,”  but begin to have the win-now mentality.

Is Scott Pioli Overrated?

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In the NFL, hope plays an important role. The top 10 teams hope to win the Super Bowl and the bottom 10 teams hope to make the playoffs.

It’s no surprise that Kansas City fans and media were feeling pretty good about their 2-14 team after turning the hopeless duo of Carl Peterson and Herman Edwards into Scott Pioli and Todd Haley.

Why? Because it’s Scott Pioli, the mastermind behind three Super Bowl teams, a great  eye for talent in draft and free agency with consecutive “Executive Of The Year Awards” from 2003-2004 to boot.

So let’s take a look at what his impact on the Chiefs has been so far and what KC fans should expect from his drafts.

• The Chiefs have switched to a 3-4 defense:

This is an odd decision when you consider that a lot of personnel doesn’t the 3-4. Why are the talents of the best three technique prospect since Warren Sapp being wasted at nose tackle or five technique? Tamba Hali at outside linebacker? Yuck.

How badly will Brandon Flowers get burned playing press man coverage? Sometimes we get too excited about the potential deceptiveness of a 3-4 pass rush and forget that 4-3 teams like the Colts and Bengals have made their pass rush unique and deceptive too.

 

• Traded 34th pick for Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel:

I’ve never been a fan of Cassel. I feel like he’s a spread system QB that wasn’t needed since they already had one of those in Tyler Thigpen. Maybe I’m wrong, but let us see what he can do without Welker and Moss.

Not much needs to be said about Vrabel. He’s a bad contract that couldn’t get many sacks in the linebacker friendly defense of the Patriots.

• Signed guys like Bobby Engram and Mike Goff while pissing off Brian Waters:

These are stop gap guys, but at least they can start. On the other hand, Brian Waters is an all-pro and might be the best left guard in the NFL.

 

Now look at some Patriot Drafts:

2005

1/32 – Logan Mankins, Guard
3/84 – Ellis Hobbs, Cornerback
3/100 – Nick Kaczur, Right Tackle
4/133 – James Sanders, Safety
5/170 – Ryan Calridge, Outside Linebacker
7/230 – Matt Cassel, Quarterback
7/255 – Andy Stokes, Tight End

Most analysts will agree that getting three starters out of a draft class is considered good, with anything more being great. Keep that in mind as you look at these classes. Logan Mankins has worked out great.

Ellis Hobbs, Nick Kaczur and James Sanders are solid contributors even though each could be upgraded this year. Matt Cassel is an incredible pick when you consider that they turned the 230th pick into the 34th. I just wonder why it had to be Pioli’s 34th?

2006

1/21 – Laurence Maroney, Running Back
2/36 – Chad Jackson, Wide Receiver
3/86 – David Thomas, Tight End
4/106 – Garrett Mills, Fullback
4/188 – Stephen Gostkowski, Kicker
5/136 – Ryan O’Callaghan, Tackle
6/191 – Jeremy Mincey, Linebacker
6/205 – Dan Stevenson, Guard
6/206 – LeKevin Smith, Defensive Linemen
7/229 – Willie Andrews, Cornerback

I think we can officially call Laurence Maroney a bust. He’s oft-injured and a ballerina in the backfield. We know Chad Jackson is a bust because he got kicked to the curb last training camp. Stephen Gostkowski, a kicker, is the only solid contributor.

2007

1/24 – Brandon Meriweather, Safety
4/127 – Kareem Brown, Defensive End
5/171 – Clint Oldenburg, Tackle
6/180 – Justin Rogers, Linebacker
6/202 – Mike Richardson, Cornerback
6/208 – Justise Hairston, Running Back
6/209 – Corey Hilliard, Tackle
7/211 – Oscar Lua, LB
7/247 – Mike Elgin, Guard/Center

Brandon Meriweather hasn’t shown up as the Top-15 talent with character problems that he was billed as back in 2007. The four interceptions can give Pat fans hope though. Patriots have gotten nothing other than that though.

They did get Wes Welker and Randy Moss from this draft though.

 

2008

1/10 – Jerod Mayo, Linebacker
2/62 – Terrence Wheatley, Cornerback
3/78 – Shawn Crable, Linebacker
3/94 – Kevin O’Connell, Quarterback
4/129 – Jonathan Wilhite, Cornerback
5/153 – Matthew Slater, Wide Receiver
6/197 – Bo Ruud, Linebacker

Winning the Defensive Rookie of the Year makes Jerod Mayo’s future look promising. He is a little overrated because his skills at shedding blocks are below average. I don’t think we should expect much out of the rest of these picks because they were all reaches. Terrence Wheatley was an especially confounding pick.

All in all, Scott Pioli has made some questionable decisions so far and his recent drafts have proven to be lackluster. Scott Pioli might not be the right guy to turn this team around. But at least Kansas City fans can still hope.

Dallas Police Officer Delays NFL Player While Mother-In-Law Passes Away

In a story sure to make your stomach turn, Houston Texans running back Ryan Moats, along with his wife Tamishia, were pulled over Thursday by officer Robert Powell of the Dallas Police, after rolling through a red light. 

While you’re trying to figure out exactly what’s wrong with that scenario, let me add this.  Powell, after exiting his vehicle immediately, drew his gun (and kept it drawn), even after the Moats’ explained they were rushing to the hospital to be with Tamishia’s mother who was actively dying of breast cancer.

After making sure the path was clear, Moats gingerly rolled through the intersection, before being pulled over by Powell, a three year veteran, in the Baylor Regional Medical Center parking lot. 

Tamishia, who claims Powell pointed his weapon at her almost immediately, was ordered back in the car, but chose to enter the building to be with her dying mother.  Ryan Moats wasn’t so lucky.  He argued with Powell, explaining the situation to the officer while precious minutes elapsed. 

The argument escalated as Moats became more frustrated.  Powell was heard saying, from videotape of the incident:

“Shut your mouth!  You can either settle down and cooperate or I can just take you to jail for running a red light.”  Powell continued, “I can screw you over.  I’d rather not do that. Your attitude will dictate everything that happens.”

The debacle lasted 13 minutes, during which Moats was given a ticket and lecture from Powell, before Moats was able to see his mother-in-law, who unfortunately had died.  All Moats had to say about the incident was, “I think he should lose his job.”

At this time, Officer Powell has been placed on paid administrative leave, pending a formal investigation.  My take is that being a police officer is one of the most life-threatening jobs there is, one that involves quick decisions and a good set of instincts—two things which Officer Robert Powell seems to be sorely lacking. 

How the NFL Can Boost Revenue Without Changing the 16-Game Schedule

The NFL’s annual league meeting brought much discussion regarding the pending labor showdown, rules changes to improve safety, and commissioner Roger Goodell’s desire to expand the regular season to 18 games.

Though the expiring collective bargaining agreement is the league’s most pressing concern, the juxtaposition of passing new rules to improve players’ safety and the desire to extend the season of such a physically demanding sport seems peculiar, if not preposterous. 

Under the proposed plan, the league would shorten its preseason to two games and add two regular season games to the 16-game schedule.  An additional bye week would also be included in the schedule, increasing the regular season to 20 weeks.

Though many have called for a shorter preseason to decrease the number of injuries in meaningless games, it’s far more likely for marquee players to suffer injuries having to play two more “real” games with higher stakes and intensity. 

In reality, many of the league’s top players partake in only a small portion of the preseason, sometimes sitting out entire games or only playing a series or two in each contest. 

If the fundamental goal is to protect the players, would a plan calling for a 12.5 percent (two regular season games) increase in players’ exposure to potential injury really be the answer?

Frankly, the NFL is only interested in increasing its revenue despite these rules changes and calls to increase safety. 

Using the veil of safety is motivated solely by the revenue the top stars of the league create—stars such as New England’s Tom Brady who missed the entire 2008 season with a knee injury suffered in Week 1.

Goodell and the league can speak of improving player safety, but a few isolated rule changes will not supersede the increased risk of exposing players to injury and fatigue in an expanded regular season. 

How often do we see players running on fumes—physically or mentally—by the time they enter the postseason?  Now, just add two extra games to that equation.  It would be extremely difficult for teams to maintain a high quality of play deep into the playoffs.

Do we really want players that are barely able to compete in the conference championships and Super Bowl?

Traditionalists will also point to the effect an 18-game schedule would have on the record book—both single-season and career numbers alike. 

We’ve already seen the records from the 1950s through 1970s crushed due to the progression from a 12-game schedule to 14 games in 1961 to the current 16 games in 1978. 

There has to be a point when the league begins pushing the limit to maintain some reverence for the history of the game. 

Colts quarterback Peyton Manning is already rewriting the record book, but an expanded 18-game schedule would provide him with a 50 percent increase in the number of games he can play in a season compared to legendary quarterbacks of the 1950s such as Johnny Unitas playing 12 games a season. 

To put this in perspective, using a stat-happy sport such as baseball, Babe Ruth hit 60 home runs in a 154-game schedule in 1927.

If baseball adopted a 50 percent increase in regular season games, Albert Pujols would have 231 games this season to take aim at the Bambino’s career-high mark.

A current NFL running back playing eight seasons would be able to play 16 more games—one extra season—than all-time rushing leader Emmitt Smith would have had in eight years. 

This could easily be an additional 1,500 rushing yards in a career, a significant boost in climbing the all-time rushing list.

Why even bother keeping statistics anymore?

Though Goodell would never admit it publicly, he is far less concerned in improving player safety and preserving its history than he is in strengthening the moneymaking machine that is the NFL.  All of these discussed topics center around increasing revenue.

So how can the league increase revenue while sincerely maintaining safety and protecting the record book?

A far simpler plan would address nearly all of these concerns while still increasing league revenue. 

The league does need to revise the preseason schedule.  The modern NFL player maintains a high level of conditioning throughout the calendar year, so a four-game preseason is unnecessary. 

Dropping one preseason game would provide enough time for coaches to evaluate unproven talent while limiting the risk of injury to established players. 

While this would leave an unbalanced home-away schedule of three games, teams could schedule an extra scrimmage at their stadiums to recover lost revenue in seasons when they played only one home preseason game.

Though less-appealing to season ticket holders, teams could opt to recover the loss through a prorated increase in the nine remaining home games in the package.

The remaining lost revenue from these 16 preseason games (the total number of league preseason games would decrease from 64 to 48) would be recouped by the proposed changes to the regular season and playoffs.

The elimination of one preseason game would provide an open week in the NFL’s calendar.  Instead of increasing the number of regular season games, a second bye week would be added to each team’s regular season schedule. 

The NFL included two bye weeks in each team’s schedule in 1993, but the response was unfavorable.  However, with the astronomical money involved in the league’s current television contract, the extra week in the regular season would provide more nationally-televised primetime games with lucrative advertising revenue.

Another benefit from an additional bye week would be added flexibility to schedule international or neutral-site games. 

One of the biggest complaints from players regarding playing overseas is the sacrifices that have to be made for traveling and adjusting to the different time zone.  Providing teams with another bye week would ease the strain of playing in these international games. 

The league could easily schedule a few more international games under this plan.

The extra bye week would also provide more recovery time for teams, increasing their chances of remaining healthy for the postseason.

Each team would receive its first bye some time between Week 3 through 9 and the second between Week 10 through 16.  All 32 teams would play in Week 17 and 18 to maintain competitive balance.

The most radical change would be to increase the number of playoff teams in each conference to eight, the four division champions and four wild card teams. 

With the extra bye week in the regular season schedule, the first-round bye for the top two teams in each conference would be eliminated.  No other major professional sport offers byes in the first round of the playoffs, so why should the NFL?

This would create an additional four games in the Wild Card round, improving revenue for these four playoff teams as well as the entire league through added television revenue. 

The top team in each conference would still earn home-field advantage in the playoffs, and the teams would be reseeded for the Divisional round (the best team in the conference would play the worst remaining team). 

For good measure, the league could even address the criticism of the current system by no longer promising a home game to each division winner.  The four teams with the best records in each conference would play home games in the first round of the postseason.

Division winners would only be guaranteed a spot in the postseason, thus creating more incentive for teams having already clinched a weak division to continue competing for one of the top four seeds.

When considering this plan, the league would simply have to examine the lost revenue of 16 total preseason games against the potential revenue gained from an extra week of nationally-televised games, four more playoff games, and the flexibility to schedule more international and neutral-site games. 

On top of that, the owners would not have to fight the union over the contractual issues created by increasing the number of games in the regular season schedule. 

And even though they are not top priorities, it would actually be a fundamental step in protecting the health of players by adding an extra bye to the schedule while also preserving the game’s modern history. 

Will it happen?  Probably not, but it’s something to ponder before making radical changes to the fabric of the National Football League.

A New Blockbuster Deal: Could Cutler Head To Philly?

Much has been discussed about the saga between Josh McDaniels and Jay Cutler in the Mile High City.

The franchise QB has been quoted he wants out of Denver.  He has sold his house, and even talked his parents into selling their home. 

Fresh out of the Bill Belichick system,new head coach McDaniels has been apprehensive (to say the least) in keeping Cutler as his trigger man. 

Writers from across the nation have offered their opinion on the matter, suggesting everything from firing McDaniels to releasing Cutler immediately. 

 

S and G Sports, after some deliberation, have uncovered a new alternative to the ‘Colorado Crisis’. Send Jay Cutler to Philadelphia for Donovan McNabb and a 2009 fourth round pick.

 

For this trade opportunity to take place, Denver owner Pat Bowlen must be convinced the Josh & Jay relationship is far beyond repair. 

As of now, he expects that this will all blow over and everybody will soon hold hands and get along.

Unfortunately, Cutler’s absences from the team workouts have greatly concerned the young HC and his offensive staff. McDaniels, as stated previously, is a disciple of Belichick’s no-nonsense approach and a believer that no player deserves favorable treatment. 

The TEAM FIRST philosophy, so evident in New England’s recent dynasty, has been proven pervasive in the Denver front office by the willingness to trade for players whom McDaniels feels would be better for the whole of the team (e.g. new KC QB Matt Cassel). 

Both parties are currently at a standstill, as evidenced by Cutler’s inability to return McDaniel’s calls and McDaniel’s refusal to appease Cutler’s ego with apologies for trade talks. 

 

In Philadelphia, the notoriously rabid fanbase has still not fully accepted Donovan McNabb, even after 10 years as an Eagle. 

For a Philadelphian, there is one man responsible for four NFC title losses, a Super Bowl loss, and the recent subpar regular season records: Donovan Jamal McNabb. 

It doesn’t appear to matter that No. 5 has thrown for 29,000 yards, 194 touchdowns, been to five Pro Bowls, and has taken a once mediocre organization to five NFC Championships.

Now on the final stretch of his career, the Philadelphia faithful would love to see a new, young trigger man grab the helm of the organization into the next decade. 

Excuse us: A talented young, new quarterback; not some Houston has been.

McNabb has felt somewhat betrayed by the front office and his fans. His HC Andy Reid has not been the solid rock for his QB, shying away from grabbing a go-to WR and subtly looking at future replacements. 

 

With Cutler gone and McNabb instated as the new face of the franchise, McDaniels will have his veteran and the go ahead to thrust into a successful training camp. 

McNabb will be able to start fresh, under an excited young HC with a new system, and an enthusiastic fanbase. 

McNabb will have what he always wanted, a hard working big name WR in Brandon Marshall, and will be reunited with longtime teammate and friend in safety Brian Dawkins, who could  make a strong case to bring McNabb to the Mile High City. 

In addition, McNabb’s constant warring with the defensive-minded NFC East will cease as his opponents shift from the likes of the Giants and the Cowboys to the Raiders and the Chiefs.

 

Jay Cutler’s move to Philadelphia will prove successful for the City of Brotherly Love.  He is a proven gunslinger with a Pro Bowl and several Bronco franchise records under his belt (remember, John Elway was the QB there). At 25 years of age, he has the potential to don the Eagle jersey well into the next decade.

Unlike McNabb’s recent problems with injuries, which has been a source of derision by the fans, Cutler started all 16 games the past season. 

Offloading McNabb and bringing in Cutler will be the solidifying piece to the youth movement that has befallen Philadelphia this offseason (refer to S & G Sports Article: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/139276-spreading-my-wings-a-close-look-at-the-2009-philadelphia-eagles).

This quarterback change will not be a major drop off for Coach Reid as Cutler has blossomed under a similar passing attack at Denver and in college at Vanderbilt, amassing impressive stats on both teams.

His rocket arm and decent mobility will make him a dual youthful threat to take the pressure off RB Brian Westbrook.

 

With this evidence presented, the Cutler—McNabb trade makes sense.

McDaniels wants a veteran quarterback to vault his team to the playoffs, and Reid desires a young gunslinger to take his club to the next level. 

That being said, however, this possible blockbuster deal begs the question: Should high profile stars’ trade demands be catered to?

S and G Sports believes not, as one man does not make a team, but as in the case of Jay Cutler, there are always exceptions to the rule. 

 

NFL’s Next Move: Flag Football

Oh, the joys of football season. Smashmouth football. Bone-crunching hits. Running backs vs. linebackers. Wide receivers vs. safeties. This is what NFL fans love about the game.

And the league is slowly but surely taking it all away.

Now, I understand the whole concept of them trying to make the game more safe. I understand the concept of making sure guys aren’t getting beheaded. To an extent.

It’s getting to the point where you’re penalizing players for making an effort.

I’m not going to get into every rule that has been changed in the NFL over the years, but the game is drastically different then it was 20 years ago, and the new rule changes released earlier this week further prove the point.

I thought the whole reason these rookie contracts were so big now was because of the physical risks they could endure. If we’re going to make the game softer, then the league needs to start paying them less. Are you aware that, last season, Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons made more than Tom Brady? That’s absurd.

And if you’re going to take out all these “risks” for the players, then we need to pay them less and drop ticket prices.

Every football fan that I know enjoys seeing the big hits. They make you jump out of your seat and desperately wait to see the replay 10 more times.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I don’t like cheap shots, either. There’s no need for that in the game. But they’re taking away more than cheap shots.

Quarterbacks now might as well have a little square sewn onto the front of their jersey representing the only “legal” place you can hit them.

Nobody wants to ever see a stretcher come out onto the field to cart a player off. But it is always going to be a possibility as long as the game is being played. You can’t keep making rules that stop you from giving an effort on the field.

These rules are, in essence, destroying the game as we know it. 

If a defender can not make a second effort to get to a quarterback once he’s knocked down (as per a new rule released this week), then why should a quarterback be allowed to scramble out of the pocket? Or even pump fake, for that matter?

There is one huge reason that there is not a professional flag football league: It wouldn’t get watched. And the more the NFL keeps taking the game away from the players, the that this is exactly what we’re going to be left with.

Evaluating the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2008 and Assessing 2009: Wide Receiver

Despite the unprecedented success of the Eagles over the last decade, one position has always generated intense scorn.

Wide Receiver.

Fans and analysts alike scoffed at the idea that the receiving corps was good enough to win a championship with.  Charles Johnson and Torrance Small.  James Thrash and Todd Pinkston.  Freddie Mitchell.  Greg Lewis.

Each of these names will draw a negative reaction from Eagles fans, and with good reason.  So much ill will has been brought about over the wide receivers that the 2008 group covertly became a solid unit.

There is no top line guy like Terrell Owens or Larry Fitzgerald, but as a whole they are talented and productive. 

Rookie DeSean Jackson surpassed what anyone could have reasonably expected.  He played in all 16 games and led the team with 62 receptions and 912 yards. 

In the postseason, Jackson further elevated his play. 

He became a consistent deep-threat, catching a pass over 30 yards in each of the three games, and averaged 18.8 yards per catch.  He caught the go-ahead touchdown pass in the NFC Championship game.

Jackson showed a lot of promise in ’08, but he needs to get stronger and develop some more consistency to increase his production.  He has the ability to be a true game-breaker.

Kevin Curtis missed the first seven games of the season with a sports hernia.  The team’s leading receiver in 2007, Curtis’ production dropped dramatically.

Initially, upon his return, Curtis didn’t show the explosiveness off the line or the speed to gain consistent separation down the field.  As the season wore on, he started to round into form.

Curtis had just 33 catches for 390 yards in nine games, scoring two touchdowns in the regular season.  Like Jackson, Curtis raised his game in the playoffs.  He averaged 17.6 yards per reception and averaged over 70 yards per game. 

2009 should be a better year for Curtis. He should be going into the season healthy, and won’t have to play catch-up all year.

If not for the stellar play of DeSean Jackson, the big wide receiver story for the Eagles would have been third year player Jason Avant.

Avant became a reliable third down target for Donovan McNabb.  22 of Avant’s 32 receptions went for first downs, and 13 of his catches resulted in third down conversions. 

Avant is only a possession receiver, but his role is very valuable to the offense.  He continues to grow and learn the pro game, but he needs to be more effective in the red zone.

Fourth receiver Hank Baskett has been an exercise in frustration.  He has shown flashes of big play ability and red zone dominance, but hasn’t been able to do so with any regularity. 

Baskett has three career touchdown receptions over 87 yards.  He caught two touchdown passes inside the ten yard line in 2008.  He is 6’4, 220 pounds but hasn’t been a consistent physical presence.

With his elite size and leaping ability, he should be more productive, but he can’t seem to put it all together.  Baskett still has some upside, and deserves a spot on the 2009 roster.

Next comes the part of the receiving corps that draws the most attention.  The fan base was cheering when news was announced that Greg Lewis had been sent to the Patriots.

In 2004, Lewis was supposed to be an emerging player, but that never came to fruition.  Lewis contributed more on special teams than he did to the offense.  In the first half of the NFC Championship game, Lewis dropped a deep ball from McNabb that was right in his hands.

Perhaps the most perplexing Eagles receiver is Reggie Brown.  A former second round draft choice, Reggie Brown was touted as a future No. 1 wideout.  By the end of the season, he was dead last on the depth chart.

It can’t say much for Brown that he was nothing more than a cheerleader during the most important games of the season.  Reggie Brown has played his best football when McNabb has been out of the lineup and it would be a surprise if he is ever a factor in Philadelphia again.

With Jackson and Curtis, the Eagles have more speed at the position than most teams in the NFL.  Both are capable of making big plays, and they are the most explosive duo under Andy Reid.  The group is not without flaw.

Despite the speed and big play ability, the Eagles lack a physical, go to wide receiver.  In late game situations, and in the red zone, McNabb has no one that can make that big catch for him.

While wide receiver isn’t the problem it has been in the past, they are missing something.  As a unit, they only caught 11 touchdown passes in 2008.  Less than half of the team’s touchdown passes went to wide receivers.

To put this in perspective, four individual players had 11 touchdowns receptions or more.  The Eagles ranked 18th in the league in touchdowns by wide receivers, and only five teams receiving corps’ caught a lower percentage of its team’s touchdowns. 

The perfect fit for this offense would be Anquan Boldin.  He is a big, physical receiver who competes for every ball and catches everything thrown his way.

Boldin led the league in red zone receptions, and was second in the NFL in yards after catch.  Boldin is also known as a very good blocker, which would be a help in the running game.

If the Eagles are unable to land Boldin or Braylon Edwards in a trade, it is unlikely they will use one of their first round picks on a receiver, but Hakeem Nicks out of North Carolina would be a great choice.

Nicks has been compared to Boldin, but with better straight line speed.  He has big, strong hand and can catch the ball away from his body, and hang onto it after taking a big hit. 

Like Boldin, Nicks is very competitive after the catch and can make defenders miss.  Nicks would have a chance to contribute from the start much as Jackson did.

This is the best overall group of receivers in the Reid/McNabb era, and even without any additions, they should be even better next year. 

Jackson, Avant and Baskett are all young and improving, and Curtis should be in better health.  It will be interesting to see if they bolster the position via trade or in the draft, but either way, this should not be an area of weakness.

Next up: Tight Ends.

Hakeem Nicks A Sleeper In NFL Draft

Hakeem Nicks is a 6-foot-1-inch, 212 lb. wide receiver out of the University of North Carolina. He is in the top four best wide receivers in this year’s draft.

A high school All-American, Nicks didn’t disappoint Tar Heel fans during his stay at UNC. He quickly drew scout’s attention in his freshman and sophomore campaigns when he  caught 113 balls for 1,618 yards and nine touchdowns in his first two years on campus.

His best year was his standout junior year, when he caught 68 passes for 1,222 yards and 12 touchdowns, which earned him a spot on the All-ACC First Team. He really opened eyes when he caught eight passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns in the Meineke Car Care Bowl against West Virginia.

Hicks lacks elite stopwatch speed, but so did Anquan Boldin and Chad Johnson. He had an arm span of 33.5 inches and a hand span of 10.5 inches at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Some of his positives include his super hands that can adjust to horribly-thrown passes. He also has good initial quickness off the snap. He could easily pass a sight test. He has great strength and lateral agility to fight through the coverage.

He has good burst out of the breaks to generate separation, especially on slant routes. He has a rare body control for a player built like him. He has great height and leaping ability for the fade route, he knows his way around the field (sidelines and down markers), and can snatch the ball in the air while taking huge hits.

Although Nicks may have questionable deep speed, and might lack the speed to challenge DBs over the top, he capitalizes when defenses spread thin.

I have Hakeem Nicks going to the New York Giants at 29th overall in my new mock draft (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/144514-nfl-mock-draft-stafford-1-overall) because I think Baltimore will pick Darius Hayward-Bey before they pick Nicks. But any team would do well to select him.

A Memo to Brett Favre: Please, Stay Retired

I’ve seen the picture above being used many times. I like this photo because Brett Favre is jogging of the field. Will it actually be the last time he does so?

There have been numerous rumors saying Favre will once again return to the NFL. This time, the Cleveland Browns are the team that are reportedly interested.

I am surprised that they are the team that wants him. Here are a few reasons why.

1. Eric Mangini

The new head coach for the Browns never really got along with Brett Favre. When you put two personalities together, it often didsn’t work out. Apparently, the two have worked out their differences, and now they text on a regular basis.

2. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn

One of them likely won’t be on the team next year. Which one will it be? Cleveland must develop one of these quarterbacks for the future. Why bring in a 40-year-old who wants to stay retired? To me, it doesn’t make sense.

3. Brett Favre will not win another title

Cleveland will have a pathetic season next year. Their running game is average at best. They traded arguably their best offensive target. The defense is pathetic, and there is no offense.

I have always told people that Brett Favre won’t return to play football. I’m starting to regret those words. He already tried his comeback with the Jets. It failed. So why go to a team that is much worse?

It can’t be for money, can it? No.

Favre has always been about stirring up the pot. He loves to be the quiet guy that secretly wants all the publicity. I can honestly say that 99 percent of football fans are sick of Brett Favre talking about retiring and then un-retiring.

To me, he seemed serious when he said that he was finally hanging up the cleats for good. That was the first time! Then in June 2008, Favre announced that he would be returning to the NFL.

The New York Jets traded a conditional 2009 draft pick for the former MVP winner. He was expected to put them on top of the division. Who really thought that he would bring them a Lombardi trophy, though? I sure didn’t.

In 2008, he threw for 22 touchdowns along with 22 interceptions. Somehow, these awful numbers got him a place on the Pro Bowl roster. He was replaced by Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers. If it had not been for the fan vote, Brett Favre would only be a nine9-time Pro Bowler right now.

The former Southern Mississippi star was the 33rd overall pick in the 1991 draft, selected by the Atlanta Falcons. Favre was not expected to be anything more than a depth player. Little did they know that he would become a three-time MVP.

In his 16 years with the Green Bay Packers, Favre led them to a Super Bowl XXXI win and worked his way into the hearts of fans everywhere. The legend had been born, and there was plenty more of him left in the tank.

The relationship between Favre and the Packers fizzled after the 2007 season. Packers coach Mike McCarthy stated that Green Bay would focus on starting the career of former first-round pick Aaron Rodgers.

Brett was not prepared to be a backup for a team that has been cemented into his life forever. He decided to do the smart thing…retire.

On April 24, 2008, Brett appeared on the “Late Show with David Letterman.” When asked what he’ll be thinking around training camp, Favre went on to say, “I think when training camp gets close, something is bound to happen.”

Those words left hope in the hearts of Favre fans. From that point on, I knew Brett Favre would soon return to where he belongs.

That was for the 2008 season, but now we are talking about the 2009 season. Do you really want to potentially injure your body even more?

Brett has not publicly claimed that he is considering coming back into the NFL, but there are texts that show Eric Mangini has talked to him about it.

I have always had the utmost respect for Favre. When he played the Vikings on Sundays, I was always nervous. He burned us many times. A few times, I even cried when the Packers beat us.

He is a surefire Hall of Famer. He just needs to hang it up for good. He’s a legend to the football world and is arguably among the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

Stay retired, Brett. Stop messing with the legacy. Focus on your wife and kids. Shoot some more “Wrangler Jeans” commercials. No matter what you do, please, stay retired.

NFL’s Top Defensive Draft Prospects in 2009

Earlier this month, I showcased what I believed to be this year’s top five offensive prospects; this time around, we will take a look at the top five NFL defensive prospects who will be making an impact in the NFL next season.

 

1.) Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State: The 21-year-old Everette Brown really raised some heads this season showing his versatility to move between DE, as well as playing the outside linebacker.

At 6’4″, barely tipping the scales at 250, Brown may lack ideal size for an NFL Defensive End, but he makes up for brute strength with his agility and uncanny speed for a player of his frame.

Brown totaled 13 sacks, while forcing three fumbles last season with the Seminoles, and regardless of what defensive scheme he is brought into at the pro level, he should be able to add a boost to any team’s pass rush.

 

2.) Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas: At 6’4″, 260, Orakpo has legitimate NFL size for a defensive end, and has shown improvement every year playing for the Long Horns. In 2008 Orakpo totaled a career high 11 sacks, and 40 tackles.

Although Orakpo may be the first defensive player selected in the 2009 NFL draft, his inability to move to the Outside Linebacker drops him to No. 2 behind Florida States, Everette Brown.

 

3.) Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State: Had Jenkins declared last season, he likely would have been the first defensive back to be selected in the draft, yet after another season at Ohio State, he will still likely be the first CB selected in the 2009 NFL Draft.

Great size for an NFL CB at 6’1″, and great speed (4.3), Jenkins should be able to make a smooth transition into the NFL.

Jenkins INT numbers may not jump out at you, but that is more or less a result of opposing QB’s avoiding his side of the field. A sure tackler, and could be a major asset for any team that favors a CB blitz.

 

4.) BJ Raji, DT, Boston College: BJ Raji is an intriguing prospect to say the least. While many feel that a 3-4 defensive scheme would suit him best, due to his size, there has also been talk lately that many 4-3 defensive teams are looking at him as a major asset.

In his time with the Eagles, Raji saw improvement nearly every season, and after being red-shirted, and given some extra time off the field to work out and get conditioned, he became a major threat in Boston College’s pass rush, totaling for seven sacks.

At 6’1″, and well over 300lbs, Raji is by far the best NT prospect in this years NFL draft, and should be off the board by No. 20.

 

5.) Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest: Curry possess all the tools to be a successful NFL Linebacker. Size, speed, elusiveness, and the ability to move between the outside and middle Linebacker positions.

Totaled over 100 tackles in 2008, and while he didn’t prove to be much of a threat in the pass rush, he was a major asset in stopping the run, and showed a knack for being able to succeed in coverage.

Curry will be fighting it out with Rey Maualuga in terms of which LB is selected first in the 2009 NFL draft, and while Maualuga may have slightly more upside, for my money Curry is the best LB in this years draft class.

 

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