Eli Manning Needs Plaxico Burress: Fact or Fiction?

Much has been made of Eli Manning‘s alleged need of Plaxico Burress or a wide receiver with similar size and skill set. After all, the combination had become one of the best in the NFL when they began hooking up on touchdown passes in 2005.

And it’s a well known fact that when Eli misses, he misses high…so it’s not a reach to assume he needs a tall wide receiver to succeed.

However, if you actually break down the statistics in 2008 and compare Manning’s numbers with Burress to his numbers without him, they’re not that much different. In fact, an argument could be made that Peyton’s younger brother preformed better without his star wide receiver.

**The following statistical analysis was done with ESPN’s official stats and brucey.net’s QB Rating calculator.**

With Plaxico Burress (Weeks 1-3 and 6-11):

164/279 (58.78%) for 1,812 yards with 13 TD’s and seven INT’s (83.20 QB Rating)

Yards per attempt – 6.49
TD% – 4.66
INT% – 2.50

Without Plaxico Burress (Weeks 5 and 12-17):

125/200 (62.5%) for 1,426 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s (90.95 QB Rating)

Yards per attempt – 7.13
TD% – 4.00
INT% – 1.50

Including the playoff loss to Philadelphia:

140/229 (61.1%) for 1,595 yards and eight TD’s and five INT’s (84.59 QB Rating)

Yards per attempt – 6.97
TD% – 3.49
INT% – 2.18

It’s important to note that Manning only played one half in week 17 against the Minnesota Vikings. Had he played the full game, here are his projected stats without Burress and the playoff loss included:

151/248 (60.9%) for 1,714 and eight TD’s and five INT’s (83.97 QB Rating)

Yards per attempt – 6.91
TD% – 3.23

INT% – 2.01

 

So what do all of these stats really tell us? Basically, that Manning can succeed without Burress and arguably does better. However, you should also note that his TD percentage was much higher when Burress was playing, but that his INT percentage was also higher…perhaps a sign of him forcing the ball to Plax?

Bottom line? Eli and the Giants don’t need Burress to succeed. What they do need is another productive end-zone threat…something I believe Ramses Barden will become almost immediately.

That’s that, Giants fans. It’s time to take your fingers off the panic button.

San Francisco 49ers: 2009 Success Hinges on Improved Play from Secondary

Before Niner fans start predicting their team to make the playoffs, they might want to take a moment to question whether or not their team has a pass defense capable of getting them there.

Before delving into the play of last year’s secondary, it’s important to note how this year’s offseason has unfolded.

So far, the 49ers have made some significant additions. However, up until recently, each and every one of them were on the offensive side of the ball.

The 49ers brought in free agent offensive tackle and former Pittsburgh Steeler Marvel Smith to fill their hole at right tackle in an attempt to shore up the offensive line.

Smith’s signing wasn’t the only change. In an attempt to improve the blocking for running back Frank Gore, San Francisco decided to bring back fullback Moran Norris. Norris spent 2006 and 2007 with the 49ers, years that saw Frank Gore put up his best two seasons running the football.

San Francisco didn’t stop adding to the offense after they beefed up the running game. Instead, they added to their receiving corps by signing former Tennessee Titan wide receiver Brandon Jones to be their deep threat in the passing game.  

But prior to the recent signing of veteran cornerback Dré Bly, the 49ers had made only one significant defensive signing, re-signing veteran ILB Takeo Spikes.

Clearly, the 49ers’ plan in free agency was to shore up the offense, but the defense still needed some help. San Francisco had the opportunity to address that side of the ball through the NFL Draft.

However, in this year’s draft, the 49ers didn’t take a defensive player until the fifth round. Granted, at pick No. 146, ILB Scott Mckillip was just the 49ers third selection of the draft. He would also be the only defensive player taken by San Francisco until the seventh and final round.

By primarily focusing on offense during free agency and the draft, San Francisco has put together a unit that should be able to put up plenty of points this season, regardless of who wins the starting quarterback spot.

Drafting Texas Tech standout receiver Michael Crabtree with their first-round pick will do wonders in the passing game, and along with veteran Isaac Bruce, youngsters Josh Morgan and Jason Hill, and new-comer Brandon Jones, the receiving corps should be quite productive.

Despite the drastically revamped offense behind a new coordinator Jimmy Raye, the 49ers have done little to nothing to improve their 23rd ranked defense from last season.

In particular, the 49ers pass defense was ranked 20th in the NFL last season, giving up an average of 219 yard per game through the air. The 49ers were tied amongst six other teams at 21st in the league for interceptions.

San Francisco defenders picked off opposing quarterbacks just 12 times and the defense could have been ranked anywhere from 21st to 26th in the category.

When it comes to the minuscule total of interceptions, you first have to look at the 49ers’ apparent “shut-down” corner, Nate Clements. The 80 million dollar man had just two interceptions for the season, being beat out by veteran corner Walt Harris (three) and veteran linebacker Takeo Spikes. You heard that correctly, Takeo Spikes had more interceptions than Nate Clements.

Not only that, but the 49ers finished a second season in a row without an interception from their starting free safety Mark Roman, who finally lost his starting position this offseason.

However, Roman’s replacement Dashon Goldson has played in just 19 games in his two years at the NFL level, made only 36 tackles, knocked down just three passes, and has yet to record an interception.

Goldson has had a history of injury problems, which adds to the problem of depth in the secondary. If Goldson can’t stay healthy, Roman may have to become the starter again or San Francisco may be stuck with playing a rookie at the free safety position.

Now, at 6′ 2″ and 200 pounds, the 24-year-old Goldson has the physical tools to be the playmaker the 49ers need him to be, but to bank on him staying healthy and to be able to produce against top-flight NFL receivers for a full season is asking a lot of such a young player.

But, if Goldson can perform adequately, his presence will help improve the play of his safety partner, Michael Lewis.

After signing with the 49ers in 2007, Lewis has not been able to be the run-stuffing and hard-hitting strong safety that the 49ers organization had envisioned.

Part of the reason Lewis has not been able to shine is the fact he has had to compensate for Roman’s poor coverage ability. Nevertheless, each member of last season’s secondary was burned time and time again by opposing receivers.

However, the signing of long time veteran and Pro Bowl cornerback Dré Bly will be a boost to the secondary.

But Bly’s signing was made only after the news of Walt Harris’ potentially season-ending ACL injury.

Therefore, prior to Harris sustaining the injury to his right ACL, the 49ers were essentially returning the same exact defensive roster from last season.

And as mentioned previously, that defense did not exactly scare many opposing quarterbacks.

In order for this 49ers secondary to limit the effectiveness of NFC West receivers such as Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch, Nate Burlson, and Donnie Avery, they will not only have to step up their game but also hope for an improved pass rush.

Hopefully defensive coordinator Greg Manusky can get creative while working under head coach Mike Singletary and figure out a way to create a more effective pass rush.

Last season, San Francisco sacked the quarterback just 30 times, few of which came during key situations.

If the 2009 49ers secondary wants to slow down the plethora of playmaking receivers inside the NFC West, they’re going to need more than just an improved pass rush; they’re going to have to step their game up to a whole new level.

Perhaps Bly and Goldson can be the answer to the improved secondary the 49ers so desperately need, but neither one should give Niners fans much confidence.

The simple fact is that the 49ers need a pass rush that enables the secondary a chance to make plays. Then the secondary needs to step up and actually make those plays.

If the 49ers defense can’t manage at least one of those two things, it may be another losing season yet again.

William Clay Ford Sr: The Right Owner For The Detroit Lions

William Clay Ford Sr. has been vilified in the media, being labeled the “Second Worst NFL Owner” recently by SI.com and before that the “Second Worst Owner in Sports”, behind being the current Oklahoma City Thunder owner that relocated the team from Seattle.

Ford Sr.  became the sole owner of the Detroit Lions in 1964, when he purchased the team for $4.5 million dollars. The team is now worth $917 million. 

The Lions have been second-rate throughout Ford’s ownership, with the team winning only one playoff game.  The biggest disgrace was former general manager Matt Millen’s eight-year stint in Detroit with a pathetic 31-97 overall record.

While it has been dismal during the Ford era and the Lions are one of the worst franchises in all of sports, would you consider taking Ford over these potential owners in 2009?

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers were the top franchise during the 1980’s, led by superstars Joe Montana and Jerry Rice. They fell short of a ten win season once in the decade while collecting four Super Bowl Championships. 

Those days are long gone since a scandal hit in 2000, forcing new ownership.  Their dismal play and the lack of a new stadium have raised many doubts in the new owner. 

The 49ers have not been able to reach an agreement on a new stadium and may be heading south to Santa Clara County.   Since the takeover, the 49ers barely eclipsed the Lions with a higher winning percentage by .006.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals feeble record is worse than Detroit’s winning percentage under Ford. 

The owner is adamant about not hiring a general manager and has an undermanned scouting department, possibly the reason so many misfits with criminal records end up in the Ohio city.  

Their top receiver, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, departed, leaving Chad OchoCinco to attempt to cry his way out of town. These developments, along with their criminal convictions, make this not a team to be proud of. The hooligans that don the orange and black were arrested ten times in 14 months back in 2007. 

Washington Redskins

Daniel Snyder has thrown absurd amounts of money at every talented free agent with a pulse.  With his monetary backing, the team is still four games under .500. 

Maybe Snyder is confused and thought this was a high-stakes fantasy football league.  While he will definitely splash the cash, the team hasn’t produced results, resulting in sub-par season after sub-par season in a strong NFC East.

Oakland Raiders

“The Worst Owner in the NFL” is the Raiders aging owner, Al Davis. 

Davis has driven a once proud organization into the ground. Finding a new head coach for him is a lengthy process with several candidates declining the opportunity. 

He continues to shock everyone with his outrageous first-round draft selections: including a kicker, punter, and the perennial selection of the fastest 40-yard dash time including this year’s choice in Darrius Heyward-Bey.

Looking at these other NFL owners, would Detroit be better off without Ford Sr.?  Is he as terrible as he’s made out to be?

Ford Sr. has kept the Lions in Detroit during his ownership of the team, while seven NFL teams since 1964 have changed their address. 

He moved the team to downtown Detroit to revitalize the city, placing a state-of-the-art stadium adjacent to Comerica Park, while the Pistons remain in an upscale suburban neighborhood. 

Ford’s winning percentage leaves room for improvement, yet his worst flaw is loyalty.  He kept Millen around for several years too long, even giving him a large contract extension in the process. 

That loyalty will come in handy as the world continues to witness Detroit’s financial meltdown, Ford will keep the team entrenched where it belongs. 

In 2008, Ford made a very unpopular choice in keeping Martin Mayhew as the team’s general manager.  That move has given fans hope again, with Mayhew’s shrewd trade tactics and free agent moves. 

Ford could have saved himself $20-$30 million dollars by demanding the team select linebacker Aaron Curry number one overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, yet he went with the quarterback he hopes will resurrect the franchise. 

He spends money, maybe it’s not as flashy as Redskins owner Snyder, yet he isn’t accused of withholding funds to improve the team. 

Detroit currently has $7.4 million dollars left on the cap, while Tampa Bay and Kansas City have over $30 million available. 

Ford Sr. may not be the best owner in the NFL, but he’s exactly what Detroit needs during these dire times. 

The Philadelphia Eagles’ Search for McNabb’s No. 1 Wide Receiver

The Eagles front office has been criticized for not being aggressive in acquiring a top tier receiver when that is really the farthest thing from the truth.

When drafting, wide receiver is one of the most difficult positions to grade.

The biggest draft bust at the wide receiver position was easily Freddie Mitchell, followed closely by Todd Pinkston. Neither of these receivers failed to contribute during their tenure in Philadelphia. However, neither blossomed into the potential game changer Eagle fans were demanding.

The Obvious Attempt: WR Terrell Owens

Some moves that the Eagles have made that are quickly forgotten, include the legendary acquisition of T.O.. Terrell Owens may have been the best receiver in the league at that time and the front office obviously made moves for him. 

The Forgotten Attempt: WR Randy Moss

Prior to signing his new contract with New England the Eagles again made a strong move to get the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Eagles outbid the Patriots for the services of Moss, but after a NFL record setting season, the future Hall of Famer elected to re-sign with the Patriots.

The Unknown Attempt: WR Anquan Boldin

In the most emotional debate for a wide receiver in Eagle history, Eagles fans were on fire, demanding the front office make a move for the Arizona Cardinal’s disgruntled receiver Anquan Boldin. Blogs everywhere were blasting the front office for failing to make a move for this superstar.

After the dust finally settled, the truth was revealed that the Eagle’s front office was one of only two teams to make viable offers for Boldin’s services.

The 2009 draft was loaded with receivers.  Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Darius Heyward Bey, Percy Harvin, and Hakeem Nicks are just a few of the good looking prospects from this year’s class of receivers. 

With the young talent available in the draft, the value of 30 year old Anquan Boldin was less than in previous years.

The Current Roster: Curtis, Jackson, and Maclin

In the last three years, the Eagles have acquired some good looking talent in Kevin Curtis, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin.

2006 fourth round pick Jason Avant and rookie free agent acquired from Minnesota, Hank Baskett, also play great roles for this Eagle team and figure to make big plays in 2009.

Reggie Brown is coming off an incredibly disappointing season and has been forgotten as the second year player who posted 816 yards and eight touchdowns. 

Through the draft, the Eagles have picked wide receivers that narrowly missed having the skill set to do what all Eagles fans expect of Curtis, Jackson, and Maclin.

For a more detailed look at the current wide receiver picture reference this link: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/176604-wide-receiver-depth-and-competition.

The “Busts”: Brown, Pinkston, and Mitchell

Brown, Pinkston, and Mitchell may not generate the same kind of excitement, but nonetheless, these guys were not that far off from being the real deal.

In Pinkston’s third season he posted a career best 798 yards and seven touchdowns. He seemed like he might be emerging as a wide receiver.

One might argue that in 2001, we drafted Mitchell before Reggie Wayne (1st Round), Chad OchoCinco (2nd Round), and Steve Smith (3rd Round). This is a valid argument.

The other side of the coin is prior to Reggie Wayne (Pick 30), the Bears took WR David Terrell (Pick Eight), Seattle took WR Koren Robinson (Pick Nine), Redskins took WR Rod Gardner (Pick 15), Jets took WR Santana Moss (Pick 16), and of course the Eagles took WR Freddie Mitchell (Pick 25). How hard is it to assess receiving talent? Real hard.

The list of receivers drafted before Todd Pinkston include: Peter Warrick to Cincinnati (fourth Overall), Plaxico Burress to Pittsburgh (eighth Overall), Travis Taylor to Baltimore (10th Overall), Sylvester Morris to Kansas City (21st Overall), R. Jay Soward to Jacksonville (29th Overall), and Dennis Northcutt to Cleveland (32nd Overall). 

The list of receivers drafted before Reggie Brown include: Braylon Edwards to Cleveland (third Overall), Troy Williamson to Minnesota (seventh Overall), Mike Williams, to Detroit (10th Overall), Matt Jones to Jacksonville (21st Overall), Mark Clayton to Baltimore (22nd Overall), and Roddy White to Atlanta (27th Overall).

Considering the aforementioned list of draft picks, It looks like the Eagles have drafted receivers pretty well.

A Final Word on Philadelphia’s No. 1 Receiver:

The fans are not the only ones looking for a big receiving threat. The front office has done everything they could to put the best team on the field year after year. This staff and veteran group of players have a few more years to bring home the hardware.

So as reported in Dan Pharzych article (Click Here to Read the Article), the Eagles have a new look at receiver depth and at least three receivers that could contend for the No. 1 receiver role in Curtis, Jackson, and, at some point, Jeremy Maclin.

 

Johnny Cochran’s Rooney Rule a Ruination

In 2003, The Rooney Rule was instituted by the NFL in response to a report commissioned by the late Johnny Cochran (famed O.J. attorney) and Cyrus Mehri.

The report, published in 2002, lambasted the dearth of black head coaches in the NFL.

One of the more ridiculous statements that it made was “…that black coaches averaged 1.1 more wins per season than white coaches and led their teams to the playoffs 67 percent of the time, compared with 39 percent of the time for White coaches”.

Do they dance better, too?

How absurd, to suggest that simply because a coach is black, he has a better chance of taking his team to the playoffs. Cochran and Mehri were able to make their statement appear credible simply because there were only two black coaches, as opposed to 30 white coaches.

And an average between two individuals is going to give a higher average than an average among 30. It is a simple case of basic math.

Cochrans’s report was spurious, of course. And his obfuscation is typical of a self-serving trial lawyer: The truth is not the truth, but what you can make the truth appear to be.

What a horrible propagation of a racial stereotype, as if somehow a coach’s race contributes to better coaching.

Still Cochran did what Cochran did best—he threatened the NFL with a lawsuit. But on what grounds?

Perhaps this a good point to remind the reader that lawsuits can’t be filed simply because one feels like it. You can’t have an “I think my boss is a jerk because he eats all the jelly donuts at our meetings” lawsuit. There must be some sort of legal standing to sue, i.e. a law has been violated.

While Cochran was yelling discrimination, I ask, discrimination of what? Based on the numbers Cochran cites at the time, with approximately 35 percent of the NFL’s payroll being black, (and of those, do I really need to point out that the majority, as players, are making some of the highest salaries, not just in the NFL, but of ALL employed adults, black, white, male or female), where is the discrimination?

Cochran was doing what Cochran did best: grandstanding and threatening. and doing it for his own expediency. For the love of Johnnie Cochran, and his insatiable need to promote himself.

It certainly wasn’t out of a love of football.

“One bad year and you’re out. There seems to be a lack of patience as far as black coaches are concerned,” Cyrus Mehri added, inferring that black head coaches only get one season to prove themselves .

Say what? The two black head coaches in 2002 were Tony Dungy of the Colts (who had already had a four-year run as head coach for Tampa Bay) and Herman Edwards of the Jets, who was beginning his first year as a head coach, but who continued in that position for another four seasons.

To whom is Cochran referring? Even Art Shell had a four year run with the Raiders—from 1990-1994. Where are the one-hit wonders?

It’s not what the truth is, but what you can make the truth appear to be.

Still, he made enough of a noise that the NFL listened, and instituted what is now known as “The Rooney Rule”. This rule requires that when interviewing for a new head coach, NFL owners must interview at least one minority, or face a fine for not doing so.

Yesterday, out of the owner’s meeting in Fort Lauderdale, came the announcement from Commissioner Goodell that the NFL owners are thinking of extending the Rooney Rule to the position of General Manager.

Hey, while you’re at it, can you extend it to the cheerleaders? I have a nephew who would be just great.

That is how absurd this rule is.

I don’t care what race my coaches, football players, general managers, owners, scorekeeper, or ball boys are. I buy my tickets, and go to the games, to see my team win. To join the camaraderie of tens of thousands of fans for an afternoon of boisterousness. To drink beer and play armchair quarterback.

When I saw Mike Tomlin on the sidelines during the last Superbowl, I didn’t think, “Wow there’s a black head coach, good thing we have the Rooney Rule”. I thought, “Why the hell did Minnesota let that guy go?”

Maybe it’s just me, but when I think of the millions upon millions of dollars that the owners funnel into their teams, I have to believe they want to win, too. And I don’t think they need a rule to encourage them to hire the right personnel, who will help them do just that.

Troy Smith Over Michael Vick: Former Buckeye the Better Choice Under Center

Everyone keeps wondering what’s going to happen to Michael Vick. Where will he go, will he get reinstated, will he be any good?

 

But no one has stopped to think about other talent in the league.

 

In order to get Michael Vick, you have to go through leaps and bounds. The decision will be controversial for the host city, and if it is a losing program, they will certainly lose some fans.

 

What if they can make a sacrifice and not have all these questions? Wouldn’t that be a lot more simple?

 

There’s a quarterback in Baltimore with exceptional talent and great ability to win wherever he goes, and his name is Troy Smith.

 

As of this season, the Ravens haven’t been using the “Suggs Package” a whole lot. They didn’t use it when it could have won them a playoff game and put them in the Super Bowl.

 

Baltimore is not using their talented former Heisman Trophy player the way they should, and he could be a starter in the National Football League.

 

Smith proved that when he beat Pittsburgh his rookie year. There have only been two games that he’s come in that they haven’t won. One Smith started against Seattle when they were crushed, and they gave Miami their only win of the season because they didn’t put Smith in earlier.

 

With Vick you have a great player, but there are so many issues in getting him. Vick has been the quarterback who hasn’t proven that he can just drop back and throw and relies on scrambling and throwing outside of the pocket.

 

That method has worked, but now defensive players are way to fast to do that.

 

Smith won the Heisman with his arm and the fact that he gets it done. If you surround him with the right amount of talent he will be a great offensive weapon.

 

I do think Baltimore would give Smith up if a team gives them something they need. They have been consistently bringing new backup quarterbacks for competition, but Smith has been beating them out.

 

Everyone has to remember if Smith would not have gotten sick with his tonsil infection he would have been the starter—not Joe Flacco.

 

I have no doubt that the Ravens would be in the same position they were in last season. It wasn’t Flacco who took them to the AFC Championship, but rather the defense.

 

When you look at Vick and Smith, comparing them they have similar traits. Both are 6′, which experts said would be a “knock” on Smith’s ability. It hasn’t been.

 

They are both out of the pocket throwers, both have strong arms, and both have shown that they are winners.

 

But, if you are looking for a starting quarterback, it has to be Smith. He’s young and a big leader for any team he’s with. He’s a great character person, which is rare in the NFL or any professional sport for that matter.

 

The biggest thing he doesn’t carry with him is extra baggage. Unless someone trades their starting quarterback for Smith there’s going to be tons of controversy around selecting him.

 

He was suspended for a game or two his sophomore year for accepting money from a booster, but that’s far from dog fighting.

 

Smith would be a great addition to a team like Minnesota or San Francisco who is struggling at the quarterback position or need competition. In a quarterback competition I’m almost certain that Smith can come out on top because he has everything a coach looks for in a player.

 

10 Questions I’d Ask Jets’ Defensive Coordinator, Mike Pettine

Thanks very much for taking the time to speak with me, Mike.  I really appreciate your time.

1)      So, how are you and your family adjusting to life in New York so far?

 

2)      How have the spring workouts been going on the defensive side?

 

3)      Are the new additions to the Jets’ defense such as Lito Sheppard and Jim Leonhard adjusting well to life in New York and fitting in well with their new teammates?

 

4)      With so much attention and pressure being put on the Jets’ offense with the arrival of Mark Sanchez, does it make your adjustment in moving to New York and taking over the Jets defense a little easier—not in terms of making your job easier, but just in terms of not having to deal with as much scrutiny and media attention as will be placed on the offense in 2009?

 

5)      Needless to say, you obviously had a lot of success as the linebackers’ coach in Baltimore.  Now that you will be overseeing the Jet’s defense, will you bring with you concepts and strategies similar to those you had implemented in Baltimore or does molding a defense have more to do with the unique strengths and weaknesses of the Jets (i.e. The Jets will, of course, have strengths and weaknesses different to those of the Ravens’ defense)?

 

6)      Last year, you defeated the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs.  During that game, the Ravens’ defense held the Dolphins and their Wildcat offense to just nine points and only 52 yards on the ground. Now that you will be facing the Dolphins’ Wildcat defense at least twice this year, was their something you picked up on in your preparation for that playoff game last year and are you confident that your strategy in defending the Wildcat while in Baltimore will be as successful for the Jets?

 

7)      The Jets’ Achilles’ heel all last year was the defensive secondary.  The secondary has been strengthened during the offseason with the acquisitions of Lito Sheppard and Jim Leonhard.  But, is the secondary still one of, if not your primary concern in preparing for the 2009 season?

 

8)      You have worked under Rex Ryan for a while now. This year, both of you will be adjusting to a new city, a new team and new roles within the coaching staff.  Does it make the adjustment a little easier in that both of you are in the same boat and facing this new challenge together?

 

9)      Tom Brady will be back at quarterback for the Patriots this year.  In light of Brady’s re-constructive ACL surgery, will you prepare for the Patriots’ offense differently in knowing that history has shown that quarterbacks recovering from ACL surgery are typically not be as mobile nor as effective with the long ball due to an inability to really step into his longer throw at least during their first season back on the field?

 

10)   The pressure and media attention surrounding any NFL team is massive.  But, do you feel any more weight in the pressure being placed upon you and the team in New York compared to what you experienced in Baltimore?

Mike, once again, thank you very much for your time and I wish you the best of luck with your continued transition and for the 2009 season.

Thanks again.

Hope for the Downtrodden: Upward Mobility and the NFL

When the deluge of NFL prediction columns start rolling in a month or so, look for a common denominator in the teams being picked to win their divisions: Almost all of them will be teams who were at least 8-8 last year.

 

Precious few will be the bottom dregs of the 2008 standings, teams like Kansas City, St. Louis, Cincinnati or, heaven forbid, the Detroit Lions.

 

But chances are at least one team from the bottom of 2008 will be playing playoff football in January 2010.

 

Now it won’t be the Lions. I’m all for making bold predictions, but that’s just stupid.

 

But when you look at the 2009 Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks and Raiders, don’t just assume that because they stunk last year they must also stink this year. We’ve had too many examples in recent history of zeros-to-heroes.

 

It has happened before. It will happen again.

 

The problem is figuring out which team.

 

 

FIRST, SOME HISTORY

 

A franchise has improved its year-over-year win margin by six or more games 52 times in the history of the NFL and AFL*.

 

The breakdown: 31 teams improved by six wins, 11 by seven, five by eight, three by nine and two by 10.

 

Fifty-two really doesn’t sound like a lot, especially when you consider that list includes teams like the 1931 Portsmouth Spartans (later to become the Detroit Lions) and the 1950 New York Yanks (not to be confused with the New York Yankees).

 

But the extreme upward mobility has gone into hyper drive over the past decade. Teams have improved by six or more games 17 times just over the past ten seasons, including three teams last year, the Dolphins, Ravens and Falcons – all with first-time head coaches. Overall, nine of the 17 have been by first-time head coaches.

 

Moreover, at least one team has improved by six or more wins every year since 1997. In 2004, 2006 and 2008, three teams did it each year.

 

* This only includes consecutive seasons where the team played the same number of games. So the 1924 Chicago Cardinals improved from five wins in 1924 to 11 in 1925, but the fact they went from playing 10 games to 13 skews the result.

 

Also, the 1988 Bengals improved their win total by eight, from four in 1987 to 12 in 1988. The only problem is that the NFL schedule was only 15 games in 1987 as a result of a 24-day players’ strike that reduced the 16-game season to 15.

Week Three was canceled, and Weeks Four through Six were played with replacement players. To me, that makes it incomparable to the rest of the margins of improvement. So any team for which the jump involved 1987 was also excluded.

 

You can find the complete list of 52 here.

 

 

THE FIRST-TIMERS CLUB

 

Pop quiz: What do the following current and former pro football head coaches have in common?

 

Al Davis, Bobby Ross, Chuck Knox, Eric Mangini, Jim L. Mora, Jim Haslett, John Harbaugh, John Fox, Marvin Lewis, Mike Smith, Potsy Clark, Sean Payton, Ted Marchibroda, Tony Sparano, and Vince Lombardi

 

The answer is obvious from the sub-head: Every single one of them improved their team’s record by six or more wins in their first year as a head coach.

 

By number of wins improvement:

 

Six: Potsy Clark (1931 Portsmouth Spartans, later to become the Detroit Lions), Vince Lomardi (1959 Green Bay Packers), Chuck Knox (1973 Los Angeles Rams), John Fox (2002 Carolina Panthers), Marvin Lewis (2003 Cincinnati Bengals), Jim L. Mora (2004 Atlanta Falcons), Eric Mangini (2006 New York Jets), Romeo Crennel (2007 Cleveland Browns), John Harbaugh (2008 Baltimore Ravens)

 

Seven: Bobby Ross (1992 San Diego Chargers), Jim Haslett (2000 New Orleans Saints), Sean Payton (2006 New Orleans Saints), Mike Smith (2008 Atlanta Falcons)

 

Eight: Ted Marchibroda (1975 Baltimore Colts)

 

Nine: Al Davis (1963 Oakland Raiders, still in the AFL)

 

Ten: Tony Sparano (2008 Miami Dolphins)

 

So we may look at Josh McDaniels, or Todd Haley, or Steve Spagnuolo and think to ourselves, “Give him a year or two to figure things out.” But there is a lot of history to suggest a new head coach can have an immediate dramatic impact despite their lack of experience (or maybe because of it).

 

 

BUT CAN THEY WIN IT ALL?

 

Probably not.

 

In the Super Bowl era (1966 on), ten teams have won the Super Bowl having won fewer than 10 games the prior season. But if we’re talking about last year’s crop of fewer-than-seven win squads, the news is bleaker.

 

Only three teams have gone from a below-.500 record to Super Bowl champions in one year: the 1981 San Francisco 49ers in Joe Montana’s first year as a starter, the 2001 New England Patriots in Tom Brady’s first year as a starter, and the 1999 Rams in Kurt Warner’s first year as a starter.

 

As you might expect, those three also accounted for the biggest year-over-year win margins ever by a Super Bowl winner: the Patriots went from 5-11 to 11-5, the 49ers from 6-10 to 13-3, and the Rams from 4-12 to 13-3.

 

So it’s not likely.

 

But it’s not impossible, either.

 

All you need is a future Hall of Fame QB ready to break on the scene.

 

(How you feeling, Browns fans? Think Quinn has it in him?)

 

 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

 

The stats say at least one of the losing teams from last year will make the playoffs. The stats say that at least one of the teams who only won four or five games last year will win 10 or more this year.

 

But who?

 

Let’s run down the below .500 teams from 2008 and assess their chances to make the leap in 2009.

 

(In order of 2008 record)

 

San Francisco: 7-9

 

Their defense should continue the progress made last year, and the offense can only improve with the addition of Michael Crabtree (not to mention the addition-by-subtraction of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator). In a division with no clear power, the chances of San Francisco taking the next step into the post-season are fairly good. But winning the Super Bowl with Shaun Hill or Alex Smith seems like a long-shot.

 

Buffalo: 7-9

 

They brought in Terrell Owens to balance the passing offense with Lee Evans, but the jury remains out on Trent Edwards. Another complicating factor is the division and conference.

If they can’t pass up the Patriots and Dolphins in the AFC East, they’re looking at teams like Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Indianapolis in the Wild Card race.

 

The roster isn’t devoid of talent, but the chances for even making the post-season are slim at this point. And, if they do make the playoff field, I don’t see any way they can fight through the loaded AFC into the Super Bowl.

 

Green Bay: 6-10

 

The Packers have the offense to make the post-season and advance to Miami. The question is how quickly the Green Baydefense can adapt to the 3-4.

They have some good pieces, and addressed a huge need at NT with B.J. Raji in the draft, but there will still be some people in new roles (Aaron Kampan) and others adapting to a different philosophy.

It usually takes at least a year or two to get everybody in place and comfortable with their roles. Right now, the Vikings and Bears seem like better picks in the NFC North.

 

Jacksonville: 5-11

 

The Jaguars’ chances really hinge on which David Garrard shows up. If he’s the guy who threw 18 touchdowns to three interceptions in 2007 and earned a fat extension, then Jacksonville should be fine. They beefed up the offensive line in the draft, added Torry Holt and return the makings of a very good defense.

 

But if Garrard is no better than the guy who muddled around the field last year, making dumb mistakes and generally looking confused, then Jacksonville is in a tough spot in a very competitive AFC South.

 

I think they can add three or four wins to the record, but I don’t think that will be enough for the post-season.

 

Oakland: 5-11

 

JaMarcus Russell is entering his third year in the league and his second as a full-time starter. In his last three games of 2008, he completed 49 of 78 pass attempts (62.8 percent) for 626 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. That included a Week 17 win at Tampa Bay that knocked the Buccaneers out of the playoffs.

 

The Raiders also have the best collection of running backs in the league with Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas and Michael Bush (who I think will have a Michael Turner-with-Atlanta-like effect next year with some other franchise).

 

Al Davis takes more crap from football fans that anybody, and much of it is deserved. The way he handled the Lane Kiffin situation was atrocious. Signing Javon Walker to ludicrous money last offseason was even worse.

But when he gave the full-time gig to 2008 interim coach Tom Cable, he made the right choice. He has the ear of that team. And in the NFL, having guys respect you and play hard for you is half the battle.

 

Do I think they’ll win the Super Bowl. No. But in that division, Oakland is a viable threat to win 10 or 11 games.

 

Cincinnati: 4-11-1

 

You look at the Bengals roster and you can certainly see the makings of a double-digit win squad. But you can also see the makings of a double-digit loss squad.

 

They’ve fortified the defense with Tank Johnson, Rey Maualuga and Roy Williams, and that’s great, but the offense still scares me. Carson Palmer has all the skills you want in a QB, but I question whether they’ve built a solid enough line to keep him healthy. Andre Smith was a great get at tackle, but that far from completes the job.

 

You’ve also got consistency questions with top back Cedric Benson and WR Chad Ochocinco. And of course there are always the chemistry issues. Adding Johnson and Williams from Dallas doesn’t solve that.

 

In a division with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, I just don’t see how the Bengals get over the hump into the post-season. Another 8-8 seems like the best-case scenario.

 

Seattle: 4-12

 

Like the Raiders, there’s a lot to like about Seattle. They have a quarterback who knows how to lead a winning football team. They have a coach in Jim Mora who knows how to turn a losing team into a winning one.

They added a great player on offense with TJ Houshmandzadeh, and they added a great player on defense with Aaron Curry. The division will be deeper than it has been over the past few years, but it’s still not the NFC East.

 

The door is open for a major turnaround. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them reach double-digits and reclaim their status as kings of the NFC West.

 

Cleveland: 4-12

 

The best thing Clevelanddid in the offseason is revamp its coaching staff with Eric Mangini, former Raiders defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, and Brian Daboll, the first-time offensive coordinator (formerly the Jets QBs coach and Patriots WR coach).

 

Mangini oversaw a six-win jump in his first season with the Jets, so he knows how to make an immediate impact on a franchise.

 

With that said, the decision to get rid of Kellen Winslow and trade back out of the fifth spot in the NFL Draft signals the building of a program, not an effort at immediate competitiveness. Of course that’s the right way to go about it, but that probably takes them out of a major jump in 2009.

 

8-8 or even 9-7 in the AFC North would be a great step forward, especially if it leads to the entrenchment of Brady Quinn as the quarterback of the future.

 

St. Louis: 2-14

 

I’m on record as liking the 2009 Rams a lot more than most people. I think Marc Bulger is going to be a candidate for second place in the Comeback Player of the Year voting (behind run-away winner Tom Brady). I think Donnie Avery is on the way to being a Pro Bowl receiver.

And I think if I end up with a late pick in the first round of my fantasy draft, I’m taking Steven Jackson because new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is going to give him Brian Westbrook-level touches.

 

And it’s not like the Rams are facing an un-climbable mountain.

 

Just last year, the Dolphins went from 1-15 to 11-5 with a first-time head coach and quarterback supposedly past his prime.

 

The 1942 Steelers. The 1959 Packers. The 1963 Raiders. The 1970 Dolphins. The 1975 Colts. The 1976 Patriots. The 1984 Giants. The 1990 Cowboys. The 1992 Colts. The 1997 Jets. The 1999 Colts. The 2000 Saints. The 2002 Panthers. The 2003 Bengals. The 2006 Saints. The 2008 Dolphins.

 

They all made jumps of at least six games after winning three or fewer games the year before. The ’75 Colts, ’84 Giants, ’99 Colts, ’00 Saints, ’06 Saints, and the ’08 Dolphins all made the playoffs after finishing with just three or fewer wins the previous season.

 

The 2009 Rams?

 

Probably not. 7-9 or 8-8 is more likely. But this is not Mission: Impossible for Steve Spagnuolo and company. It’s just Mission: Unlikely.

 

Kansas City: 2-14

 

Like I said with the Rams, the Chiefs are not automatically eliminated from contention in the AFC West just because of their 2008 record.

With a first-time head coach in Todd Haley and new quarterback in Matt Cassel, plus the addition of veterans Mike Vrabel, Zach Thomas and Bobby Engram, there’s enough new blood to shock the franchise out of the Herman Edwards doldrums.

 

But just as the Browns trading Winslow signaled a willingness to take things slow, so does the Chiefs’ decision to trade Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta. If you’re trying to make an immediate move up the standings, you keep Gonzalez. If you’re trying to build for the future, you take the draft pick and cap space and re-allocate your resources.

 

When Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick took over in New Englandin 2001, they didn’t start winning right away. In fact, in year one of the Pioli-Belichick era, the Patriots regressed from 8-8 to 5-11.

 

Now I don’t think the Chiefs are going to regress three games, because that would be impossible. But 5-11 in year one of the second Pioli era sounds about right.

 

Detroit: 0-16

 

I could certainly see the Lions jumping up to four or five wins, but when you’re starting from zero, that leaves a long, long journey to winning football. At this point, Lions fans just want to finish 2009 with some semblance of hope for 2010.

Seahawks’ Kickers Prepare For Round Two

When the Seahawks lost Josh Brown to the Rams last year, it left a rather large hole at the kicker position.

There were precious few replacement options available but they signed veteran Olindo Mare to a two-year deal and drafted Georgia’s Brandon Coutu.

A training camp competition ensued, with both fighting for the starting role.

During the 2008 preseason, there was little to split the pair. Mare impressed with the distance of his kick offs—averaging 69.7 yards and adding seven touchbacks in just 14 attempts.

Coutu trailed in this sector, he didn’t get any touchbacks in his 10 attempts but still averaged a respectable 66.5 yards.

The former Bulldog rookie fared better in field goal attempts. He scored a perfect seven-from-seven with a long of 48 yards. Mare mustered four-from-five with a long of 34.

When the decision had to be made, the veteran got the call, the extra experience and the impressive length of his kick offs sealing the starting gig.

He didn’t waste the opportunity.

It wasn’t until Week Six that Mare missed his first kick. In total, he finished with a solid 89% completion rate, scoring 24-from-27 kicks.

The highlight of the veteran’s season was surely his game-winning kick against the Rams in Week 15 to secure a 23-20 road win.

Mare hit 22 touchbacks (joint second in the NFL) and averaged 66.5 yards on kick offs, with only a 25.6 return average.

None of his kicks were taken back for six points.

Such a stat sheet would usually secure a starting role indefinitely. However, approaching training camp this year the competition has once again been opened up.

Coutu remained on the roster throughout 2008, despite never attempting a kick. It was an indication of just how highly the Seahawks rated the 24-year-old.

They didn’t want to risk losing him through waivers by putting him on the practise squad, whilst Coutu also offered insurance with Mare coming off hip surgery prior to joining the Seahawks.

“Every step of the way, it made sense.”
– GM Tim Ruskell

So what can we expect from Mare vs Coutu—round two?

Probably another very even contest. If so, we’ll have to look for potential factors that will help the team make their decision.

Mare will be 36 on June 6. Age isn’t too much of an issue for a kicker in terms of performance, but in a starting battle it could be a difference maker.

If the two remain evenly matched through camp, eventually Coutu might have the advantage as a younger model with less wear on the tyres.

As one of only two kickers drafted in 2008, Coutu became the first prospect in Georgia history to average over 80% field goal accuracy.

However, despite a career long of 58 yards, he only managed five of 11 over 50 yards in his Bulldogs career.

Mare managed three of four over 50 yards in 2008, but only has a career completion rate of 46.2 from such distance.

His overall career record shows a competent 279 from 347 kicks (80.4%).

The battle will begin in training camp and likely continue into preseason. That’s where we’ll get the first indication of who sits in the driving seat.

Could the team keep two kickers again in 2009? It’s possible.

Mare has another year left on his $3.5m contract. If they can justify keeping an inactive kicker on the roster in an injury ravaged 4-12 season, they may feel obliged to do the same again.

It would certainly be harsh to flat out cut Mare after a fairly productive 2008, whilst pinning your hopes on a relatively untested leg.

At this moment, the veteran has the upper hand but everything could change in what promises to be an interesting training camp battle.

Overtime with Giants Quarterback Eli Manning

What’s it like playing in New York? How are the fans?

 

You’re going into your sixth season with the Giants. Having won the Super Bowl so early in your career, do you feel extra weight on your shoulders to keep up the pace?

 

Do you think you have a playoff caliber team this year?

 

With the loss of Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer, who’s going to be your go-to guy?

 

There is a lot of pressure on the rookie wide receivers. Do you think they will be able to make an immediate impact?

 

Derrick Ward was an excellent fill-in for an often-injured Brandon Jacobs. With the loss of Ward in the off-season, do you think Bradshaw can pick up some of the slack?

 

What are going to be some of the biggest challenges you will face as quarterback in the upcoming season?

 

What areas of the team do you feel need the most improvement?

 

Which team in the NFC East do you hate playing the most?

 

A lot of critics say you lack the passion that your brother Peyton often displays when playing the game. What do you have to say to them?

 

Do you plan on finishing your career in New York?

What is your opinion about Michael Vick and whether or not he should be allowed to play again? How do you feel about the rumors that Brett Favre could be returning to the game?

 

For all those fantasy nuts out there, in the upcoming season how do you think you will fare against Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, or Peyton in terms of points?

 

If you were building a fantasy team, which guys would be your top three picks? Excluding any teammates!

 

What do you like to do when you’re not playing football?

« Previous Page — Next Page »

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010