Tom Brady or 19-0—Which Would You Choose?

An interesting hypothetical situation has created a lot of discussion lately on Patriots.com and sports talk radio shows around New England.

If you could choose one of the following, which would it be?:

1. Patriots beat the Giants in Super Bowl XLII and finish 19-0, then Tom Brady retires after the game?

Or…

2. The 2007 season ended just as it did and Brady stays with the team for another eight to 10 years?

It’s a very interesting hypothetical to think about. In this article, I will discuss each side of the coin, then let you know my opinion on the topic.

 

Patriots End ’07 19-0, but Brady Retires Following the Game

19-0…the sound of that is pretty. 19-0…that is an honor.

If the Patriots had finished 19-0 in 2007, it would’ve given them their fourth Super Bowl of the decade, easily making them the team of the decade. 

Fans would have been able to look back many years from now, when Tom Brady and Randy Moss are sporting grey hair, and realize the 2007 Patriots were the greatest team of all time. Current young fans would be able to tell their grandchildren, “I got to watch the 2007 Patriots.”

That would be special.

 

The Giants Win Super Bowl XLII and Brady Remains a Patriot for Another 8-10 Years

If Tom Brady had retired after the game, the possibility of New England being competitive year in and year out would be significantly lower.

There’s no question Brady is a huge reason why the Patriots are in the playoffs and competing for a championship each and every season.

We saw even when Matt Cassel—who played outstanding last season—was at the helm, the team clearly wasn’t the same.

With Tom Brady around for another eight to ten years, the Patriots would clearly have an opportunity to compete for a championship and make the playoffs every season.  Who knows? We could see more Super Bowls with Brady throwing the rock.

 

My Take

This is where everyone stops reading, right? I’ll give you my opinion anyways.

I’m in favor of everything playing out the way it did, and Brady remaining a Patriot.

As a Patriots fan, it hurt and it still hurts to think about Super Bowl XLII. Sure, I’d love to see the Patriots go 19-0. That would be amazing, and to say I witnessed that would be really special.

However, I’d rather see Tom Brady at quarterback and the Patriots with a chance to win every single season. I don’t want to see those 5-11, 1-15 frustrating years again. I know eventually they’ll be back, but over the next decade, I want to see the Patriots compete.

That’s my take, let’s hear yours.

Discuss…

Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers’ 2009 Schedule, Pt. 2

In our first article in this series, we explored the first “quarter” of the upcoming football season. The concept, as explained there, is that John Fox likes to look at the season in terms of quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one.

This series takes that concept and runs with it, looking at each group of four games from a July perspective. Sure it’s a long-range, somewhat homer-istic speculation, but what else are you going to do in July?

Should you take any of this to Vegas and run with it? Well, if you believe everyone will stay healthy and no one will disappoint. This is all guesswork, and should be taken as such.

In the first four games, the Panthers project to a 2-2 record. There’s a decent shot at 3-1 or 1-3, but it’s more likely to see them break even.

This column is the second in this series, so today we’re going to cover the games five through eight.

 

Games Five through Eight

The second quarter of the 2009 season is a lot nicer to the Panthers than the first was. The Panthers’ combined record against this group is 33-25, and 17-9 in the venues in which these games take place.

The bad news is that John Fox is just 15-14 in October, and 13-14 in November (by far his worst month). Traditionally, this is not the time of year that the Panthers play their best football.

That’s not to say all is lost, the Panthers October and November records are marred by a few winless streaks brought on by injuries. If Carolina stays healthy, or develops depth to cover injuries, then they’ll be in pretty good shape.

In 2008 they went 6-2 during this time, and given the opponents this quarter, that’s a good sign.

Hopefully, at this point of the season the Panthers will be established as one of the better running teams in the league, and their defense will be working well under Meeks’ system.

You can expect rookie Everett Brown and Julius Peppers to be putting up good numbers by now, and if the interior of the line stays healthy the Panther defense may be starting to get a little respect.

The numbers may not reflect that, given the offensive machines the Panthers played in the first quarter of the season, but signs will be there that the Panthers don’t lay down for anyone.

That’s going to be critical during this slate of games. Let’s take a look.

 

Week Six, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)

Tampa Bay looked like a contender to win the division at this time in 2008. They were only 3-2, but in this same week last year they put a 27-3 shellacking on the Panthers in Raymond James stadium that carried them to a 9-3 record before their late season collapse. Times have changed.

The Bucs have opted for a total rebuild in 2009, entering the season without such storied names as Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Carter, Phillip Buchanon, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jovan Haye, Ike Hillard, and of course, John Gruden.

They did add an excellent tight end in Kellin Winslow, a pretty good running back in Derrick Ward, and a possible quarterback of the future in rookie Josh Freeman.

But they start the year with games at the Bills, Redskins, and Eagles, and play two decent road teams in Dallas and the New York Giants. It’s a distinct possibility that they’re 0-5 when the Panthers come to town.

If that’s the case, watch out for a trap here.

The Panthers seemingly have the Bucs’ number when Jake Delhomme is the QB, going 8-2 against them with only one loss at Raymond James stadium. Unfortunately, that loss came last year, so the spell may have been broken.

In recent years Tampa Bay has had a young and aggressive defense that has consistently ranked among the tops in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has left for Tennessee though, and they return only six starters from the 2008 unit.

On the line, chronic disappointment Gaines Adams will be joined by Chris Hovan, Ryan Sims, and a player to be named later.

Behind them there’s a giant hole where Derrick Brooks used to be. The Linebackers have talent, but will miss Brooks’ leadership.

The secondary is once again the strength of the defense. Ronde Barber returns, and although he’s old he can still be effective and brings a veteran presence to the field. Aquib Talib is a great cornerback, and Tanard Jackson is a hard hitting free safety.

They may move strong safety Jermaine Phillips to linebacker, but even if they do third year man Sabby Piscatelli is more than capable of filling his shoes.

So while there are unknowns on the defense, there’s still some good talent. But whether that talent can play at a high level in a new system is a different question entirely.

On offense, expect to see Josh Freeman by this point. If the Bucs are 0-5 or 1-4, the season will be viewed as a rebuilding year anyway, and it will be time to see what the future franchise quarterback can do.

He’ll be passing the ball to Winslow and receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. There are questions about his accuracy, but you can expect the offensive coordinator to make things easy on the rookie, and give him a lot of throws underneath until his mechanics can be improved.

What will make his life a lot easier is the running game. Even before adding Ward, Tampa Bay already had two talented backs in Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.

Their problems back there have been Williams’ knees, and if he can stay healthy the addition of Ward will make their offense a lot better than most people expect.

The offensive line is young and talented, and should make Freeman look good and the running game go. What’s worse for Panther fans, the oldest starter is center Jeff Faine, and he’s just 28.

If the line stays healthy and Tampa Bay gets good play out of the quarterback position, the offense could surprise a lot of people. But for now, expectations are low.

After all, the Bucs are missing a ton of starters, they’re young, have a new coach, a good free agent running back, and will probably start a rookie under center. How can they be expected to win? Only an Atlanta fan can know for sure…

So don’t be hasty about writing them off. This is a division game, and the Panthers are the team that started the Bucs’ big slide in 2008. There’s a big revenge factor here, and if the Bucs are already having a bad year this game is going to be their own personal Super Bowl.

This is a winnable game, and the Panthers will probably be favored, but they better bring their best efforts or they’ll be in for a nasty surprise.

Carolina leads this series 10-7

 

Week Seven, the Buffalo Bills

2008 Record: 7-9
2008 Offensive Rank: 25th (22nd in passing, 14th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 14th (13th in Passing, 22nd against the run)

Buffalo started the 2008 season on fire, going 5-1, but it got ugly after that as they went 2-8 the rest of the way en route to a 7-9 finish. The Bills became the fifth team in the last 31 years to start 5-1 and not make the playoffs.

Drastic measures have been taken, as the Bills went out and signed Terrell Owens in the offseason. TO is usually good for one productive season before he starts to destroy team chemistry, and since this is probably Dick Jauron’s last year if Buffalo doesn’t win, it’s probably a risk worth taking.

If Owens behaves and the line questions work themselves out, this could be one of the more improved offenses in the league this year. In addition to Owens, the Bills signed running back Dominick Rhodes, and drafted a pass catching tight end in Shawn Nelson.

Put those newcomers together with Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch and you have a multidimensional attack that has fans in Buffalo excited this year.

A lot of that depends on line play though. The Bills let Jason Peter go in Free Agency, and are hoping that Langston Walker can make a smooth transition to left tackle like Jordan Gross did for the Panthers in 2008.

They also have a talented newcomer at center in former Panther Geoff Hangartner, and brought in some good depth via the draft.

Basically, if the line comes together like it has potential to, and if T.O. keeps his mouth shut and plays ball, then the Bills offense should have some real teeth.

On the other side of the ball, there are still a lot of question marks. Last year the Bills were 28th in total sacks, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback or it will be another long year.

To address that, they drafted Aaron Maybin to line up across from a hopefully healthy Aarom Schobel, who missed 11 games in 2008. Their interior of the line is set, but after that they have big issues.

At linebacker, they’re set at the weak side with Kawika Mitchell, but Paul Posluszny has been a disappointment in the middle and the strong side still isn’t set.

Their secondary, however, is solid on the edges with cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and veteran Terrence McGee, and they have a very good strong safety and leader in Donte Whitner.

Whitner teamed with Ko Simpson as the NFL’ first ever rookie safety tandem in 2006, but Simpson has since lost his starting job and they’re still not set at the Free Safety position.

The Bills open the season at New England (and Tom Brady will be back), then they get a potential breather in Tampa Bay before playing the Saints. Then it’s off to the Dolphins, home against the Browns (who swept them in 2008), and on the road at the Jets before they roll into Charlotte.

After looking at that slate of games though, “roll into Charlotte” may be the wrong expression. The Bills will probably be limping into town with a hint of desperation in their play.

Don’t expect them to shut down the run, and if a visiting team can’t shut down the run they could be in for a long day. Unless the Bills’ offense is excellent, this looks like a probable win.

The Bills have a lifetime record of 3-1 versus the Panthers

 

Week Three, at the Arizona Cardinals

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 4th (second in passing, 32nd in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 19th (22nd in Passing, 16th against the run)

Payback time.

For any Panther fan, that’s about all that needs to be said here, but let’s look at the Cards anyway.

The Cardinals of 2009 will look a lot like the team that finished 2008, but only on the surface. Both offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are now in Kansas City, and they also had to replace running back Edgerrin James and defensive end Antonio Smith.

The biggest problem they face this year though, is history. In this decade, the Super Bowl runner-up has made the playoffs just once, and that was because they were in the worst division in football. Well, given that the Cardinals also play there they may still have some hope.

But Arizona has two big question marks. The first is their defense; will it play at the level it maintained in the 2008 playoffs? The second is their quarterback, Kurt Warner.

No one will dispute that he’s a good quarterback when he has time. But Warner will be 38 when the season starts. He also just signed a 2-year contract, so he’s not playing for a payday. And even though he spent 2008 in good shape, he has an injury history.

If he stays healthy, he should put up MVP-like numbers.  At receiver the Cardinals return Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the all-world Larry Fitzgerald, who may be the best player at his position in the NFL.

Arizona didn’t have much of a running game in 2008, and brought in help this year in the form of first round pick Beanie Wells.

The only question marks for the Arizona offense are on the line. They allowed 28 sacks in 2008. The linemen are all coming back, so there may be some bonus for continuity there, but none of them are particularly good and they can’t run-block.

Still, any fair appraisal of the Cardinal offense will end with the question of just how you stop them. They were great in 2008, and they’re going to be great in 2009.

If Arizona’s defense plays like they did in the playoffs, this team bucks history and gets back to the big game. But that’s a huge if, particularly with Smith’s departure.

Arizona has no pass rush. They’re going to try and address that this year by alternating between a 4-3 and 3-4 alignment, and increasing the pressure from the outside.

Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell should both work well at the end positions regardless of the alignment, but inside there could be a problem, as their nose tackle is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years.

In the 3-4, Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry will line up in the outside linebacker spots.

That’s not ideal, as Okeafor got just 4.5 sacks in 2008 and will be 33 this season. Bertrand Berry led the team with five sacks last season. But he turns 34 in August, and he’s missed 23 games the past four years.

At inside linebacker the Cardinals have one of the best in the league in Karlos Dansby, and they also have a great secondary anchored by cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the newly acquired Bryant McFadden.

So it looks pretty good on the surface. But again the problem of no pressure persists. Even the best corners in the league can’t keep a receiver blanketed for the entire play–give any quarterback enough time and he’ll find an open man.

And given that the Cardinals are mediocre against the run, that almost writes the script on how to beat them. Run the ball, eat up clock, and make Warner and Fitzgerald try and beat you from the bench.

The Panthers are just the sort of team that can pull a plan like that off. And there are a couple of guarantees for this game. First, the Panthers won’t run it down the field in the first drive and then rely on Jake and Jake alone the rest of the game.

Second, there will be someone on Larry Fitzgerald at all times. Count on it.

And count on one of the best efforts from a Panthers team in years. This is a great candidate for a victory on the road.

Carolina leads the series 6-3

 

Week Five, at the New Orleans Saints

2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: First (1st in passing, 28th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)

After Arizona, this is going to feel like an “out of the frying pan, into the fire” game for the Carolina defense. And for the second straight week, the offense will be having fun out there.

The 2008 edition of the New Orleans Saints was marked by an ability to seemingly move the ball at will. But as effective as they were on offense, they were bad on defense. To address this, they added two critical pieces to their team.

The first is attitude. The Saints brought in defensive coordinator Greg Williams to add toughness, but as he showed in Jacksonville there’s only so much you can do when you don’t have strong personnel.

Williams’ scheme is fast, attacking, and oriented towards forcing turnovers. The secondary is required to blitz, cover, and tackle. Without talent though, there’s not a lot that can be done.

So the Saints went out and signed Jabari Greer from Buffalo to play at one cornerback position and at the other will probably go with Tracy Porter, who looked good in the 10 games he played last year.

Roman Harper will likely line up at strong safety while the second critical piece of their defensive rebuild will take the free safety spot, former Ohio State star Malcolm Jenkins.

Jenkins is just a rookie, but he should immediately become the most talented player in the New Orleans secondary.

The linebackers boast the presence of Jonathan Vilma, but they also return Scott Fujita and Scott Schanle. Both topped 100 tackles a year ago, but when the tackles are coming five yards off the line of scrimmage that’s not a lot to brag about.

On the line, Sedrick Ellis had a decent rookie year, but had to deal with nagging injury issues. He could use some help inside but didn’t really get much. The Saints signed Rod Colman from Atlanta, but he’s 33 and not known for his ability to stuff the run.

At the ends, the Saints have two chronic underachievers in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both of them will miss the first four games in 2009 for violating in the League’s drug policy.

On offense the Saints return Drew Brees, who’s possibly the best .500 NFL quarterback in history.

In ways he personifies the Saints.  No one gets better stats, but his lifetime record as a starter is just 55-51.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will return in the backfield, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey will be healthy, and the line will be good again. There’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score as much as they did in 2009. This is the best offense in the NFL.

But last year the best offense in the NFL did nothing more than break even. The Saints were terrible on the road in 2008, and couldn’t win the close games.

Look for the Saints to stumble out of the gate again, largely due to a complete inability to pressure the opposing quarterback.

They probably won’t get hit by injuries again like they did in 2008, but regardless of the reason, missed games are missed games. Losing both ends for the first four games hurts, particularly for a coach who’s not known for fast starts.

By this time though, they’ll be turning their season around. They’ll be fresh off a home game against Atlanta, a team they’ve owned in recent years, and they’ll be at home and fired up.

But at the same time, Jake Delhomme has an 8-2 record against the Saints, and is undefeated in the Superdome.

New Orleans won’t stop Carolina, and Carolina probably won’t stop the Saints. Between these two teams there’s never a guarantee, and the winner of this one will probably be whoever wins the turnovers battle.

Carolina leads the series 16-12

 

Conclusion

After the first four games, this quarter almost looks like a breather. There are at least two very winnable games here in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and even though they’re playing on the road the Panthers have won a lot in both Arizona and New Orleans.

Don’t be surprised at a 3-1 quarter here. If the injuries have been manageable and the defense has responded to Meeks’ system, don’t be surprised at 4-0 either.

As in 2008, when the Panthers can run at will they’re probable winners. And none of these four teams has what it takes to shut them down.

Barring a total collapse, the Panthers will be at least 4-4 at the end of this quarter. There’s a very good chance at 5-3, and 6-2 isn’t out of the question. That’s good news heading into the third quarter.

The Panthers have not been great in November under John Fox, but this year they’ll get three of four games at home and all four look like good candidates for W’s.

More on that next week though, when we explore the third quarter of 2009.

Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers’ 2009 Schedule, Pt. 2

In our first article in this series, we explored the first “quarter” of the upcoming football season. The concept, as explained there, is that John Fox likes to look at the season in terms of quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one.

This series takes that concept and runs with it, looking at each group of four games from a July perspective. Sure it’s a long-range, somewhat homer-istic speculation, but what else are you going to do in July?

Should you take any of this to Vegas and run with it? Well, if you believe everyone will stay healthy and no one will disappoint. This is all guesswork, and should be taken as such.

In the first four games, the Panthers project to a 2-2 record. There’s a decent shot at 3-1 or 1-3, but it’s more likely to see them break even.

This column is the second in this series, so today we’re going to cover the games five through eight.

 

Games Five through Eight

The second quarter of the 2009 season is a lot nicer to the Panthers than the first was. The Panthers’ combined record against this group is 33-25, and 17-9 in the venues in which these games take place.

The bad news is that John Fox is just 15-14 in October, and 13-14 in November (by far his worst month). Traditionally, this is not the time of year that the Panthers play their best football.

That’s not to say all is lost, the Panthers October and November records are marred by a few winless streaks brought on by injuries. If Carolina stays healthy, or develops depth to cover injuries, then they’ll be in pretty good shape.

In 2008 they went 6-2 during this time, and given the opponents this quarter, that’s a good sign.

Hopefully, at this point of the season the Panthers will be established as one of the better running teams in the league, and their defense will be working well under Meeks’ system.

You can expect rookie Everett Brown and Julius Peppers to be putting up good numbers by now, and if the interior of the line stays healthy the Panther defense may be starting to get a little respect.

The numbers may not reflect that, given the offensive machines the Panthers played in the first quarter of the season, but signs will be there that the Panthers don’t lay down for anyone.

That’s going to be critical during this slate of games. Let’s take a look.

 

Week Six, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)

Tampa Bay looked like a contender to win the division at this time in 2008. They were only 3-2, but in this same week last year they put a 27-3 shellacking on the Panthers in Raymond James stadium that carried them to a 9-3 record before their late season collapse. Times have changed.

The Bucs have opted for a total rebuild in 2009, entering the season without such storied names as Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Carter, Phillip Buchanon, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jovan Haye, Ike Hillard, and of course, John Gruden.

They did add an excellent tight end in Kellin Winslow, a pretty good running back in Derrick Ward, and a possible quarterback of the future in rookie Josh Freeman.

But they start the year with games at the Bills, Redskins, and Eagles, and play two decent road teams in Dallas and the New York Giants. It’s a distinct possibility that they’re 0-5 when the Panthers come to town.

If that’s the case, watch out for a trap here.

The Panthers seemingly have the Bucs’ number when Jake Delhomme is the QB, going 8-2 against them with only one loss at Raymond James stadium. Unfortunately, that loss came last year, so the spell may have been broken.

In recent years Tampa Bay has had a young and aggressive defense that has consistently ranked among the tops in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has left for Tennessee though, and they return only six starters from the 2008 unit.

On the line, chronic disappointment Gaines Adams will be joined by Chris Hovan, Ryan Sims, and a player to be named later.

Behind them there’s a giant hole where Derrick Brooks used to be. The Linebackers have talent, but will miss Brooks’ leadership.

The secondary is once again the strength of the defense. Ronde Barber returns, and although he’s old he can still be effective and brings a veteran presence to the field. Aquib Talib is a great cornerback, and Tanard Jackson is a hard hitting free safety.

They may move strong safety Jermaine Phillips to linebacker, but even if they do third year man Sabby Piscatelli is more than capable of filling his shoes.

So while there are unknowns on the defense, there’s still some good talent. But whether that talent can play at a high level in a new system is a different question entirely.

On offense, expect to see Josh Freeman by this point. If the Bucs are 0-5 or 1-4, the season will be viewed as a rebuilding year anyway, and it will be time to see what the future franchise quarterback can do.

He’ll be passing the ball to Winslow and receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. There are questions about his accuracy, but you can expect the offensive coordinator to make things easy on the rookie, and give him a lot of throws underneath until his mechanics can be improved.

What will make his life a lot easier is the running game. Even before adding Ward, Tampa Bay already had two talented backs in Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.

Their problems back there have been Williams’ knees, and if he can stay healthy the addition of Ward will make their offense a lot better than most people expect.

The offensive line is young and talented, and should make Freeman look good and the running game go. What’s worse for Panther fans, the oldest starter is center Jeff Faine, and he’s just 28.

If the line stays healthy and Tampa Bay gets good play out of the quarterback position, the offense could surprise a lot of people. But for now, expectations are low.

After all, the Bucs are missing a ton of starters, they’re young, have a new coach, a good free agent running back, and will probably start a rookie under center. How can they be expected to win? Only an Atlanta fan can know for sure…

So don’t be hasty about writing them off. This is a division game, and the Panthers are the team that started the Bucs’ big slide in 2008. There’s a big revenge factor here, and if the Bucs are already having a bad year this game is going to be their own personal Super Bowl.

This is a winnable game, and the Panthers will probably be favored, but they better bring their best efforts or they’ll be in for a nasty surprise.

Carolina leads this series 10-7

 

Week Seven, the Buffalo Bills

2008 Record: 7-9
2008 Offensive Rank: 25th (22nd in passing, 14th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 14th (13th in Passing, 22nd against the run)

Buffalo started the 2008 season on fire, going 5-1, but it got ugly after that as they went 2-8 the rest of the way en route to a 7-9 finish. The Bills became the fifth team in the last 31 years to start 5-1 and not make the playoffs.

Drastic measures have been taken, as the Bills went out and signed Terrell Owens in the offseason. TO is usually good for one productive season before he starts to destroy team chemistry, and since this is probably Dick Jauron’s last year if Buffalo doesn’t win, it’s probably a risk worth taking.

If Owens behaves and the line questions work themselves out, this could be one of the more improved offenses in the league this year. In addition to Owens, the Bills signed running back Dominick Rhodes, and drafted a pass catching tight end in Shawn Nelson.

Put those newcomers together with Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch and you have a multidimensional attack that has fans in Buffalo excited this year.

A lot of that depends on line play though. The Bills let Jason Peter go in Free Agency, and are hoping that Langston Walker can make a smooth transition to left tackle like Jordan Gross did for the Panthers in 2008.

They also have a talented newcomer at center in former Panther Geoff Hangartner, and brought in some good depth via the draft.

Basically, if the line comes together like it has potential to, and if T.O. keeps his mouth shut and plays ball, then the Bills offense should have some real teeth.

On the other side of the ball, there are still a lot of question marks. Last year the Bills were 28th in total sacks, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback or it will be another long year.

To address that, they drafted Aaron Maybin to line up across from a hopefully healthy Aarom Schobel, who missed 11 games in 2008. Their interior of the line is set, but after that they have big issues.

At linebacker, they’re set at the weak side with Kawika Mitchell, but Paul Posluszny has been a disappointment in the middle and the strong side still isn’t set.

Their secondary, however, is solid on the edges with cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and veteran Terrence McGee, and they have a very good strong safety and leader in Donte Whitner.

Whitner teamed with Ko Simpson as the NFL’ first ever rookie safety tandem in 2006, but Simpson has since lost his starting job and they’re still not set at the Free Safety position.

The Bills open the season at New England (and Tom Brady will be back), then they get a potential breather in Tampa Bay before playing the Saints. Then it’s off to the Dolphins, home against the Browns (who swept them in 2008), and on the road at the Jets before they roll into Charlotte.

After looking at that slate of games though, “roll into Charlotte” may be the wrong expression. The Bills will probably be limping into town with a hint of desperation in their play.

Don’t expect them to shut down the run, and if a visiting team can’t shut down the run they could be in for a long day. Unless the Bills’ offense is excellent, this looks like a probable win.

The Bills have a lifetime record of 3-1 versus the Panthers

 

Week Three, at the Arizona Cardinals

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 4th (second in passing, 32nd in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 19th (22nd in Passing, 16th against the run)

Payback time.

For any Panther fan, that’s about all that needs to be said here, but let’s look at the Cards anyway.

The Cardinals of 2009 will look a lot like the team that finished 2008, but only on the surface. Both offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are now in Kansas City, and they also had to replace running back Edgerrin James and defensive end Antonio Smith.

The biggest problem they face this year though, is history. In this decade, the Super Bowl runner-up has made the playoffs just once, and that was because they were in the worst division in football. Well, given that the Cardinals also play there they may still have some hope.

But Arizona has two big question marks. The first is their defense; will it play at the level it maintained in the 2008 playoffs? The second is their quarterback, Kurt Warner.

No one will dispute that he’s a good quarterback when he has time. But Warner will be 38 when the season starts. He also just signed a 2-year contract, so he’s not playing for a payday. And even though he spent 2008 in good shape, he has an injury history.

If he stays healthy, he should put up MVP-like numbers.  At receiver the Cardinals return Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the all-world Larry Fitzgerald, who may be the best player at his position in the NFL.

Arizona didn’t have much of a running game in 2008, and brought in help this year in the form of first round pick Beanie Wells.

The only question marks for the Arizona offense are on the line. They allowed 28 sacks in 2008. The linemen are all coming back, so there may be some bonus for continuity there, but none of them are particularly good and they can’t run-block.

Still, any fair appraisal of the Cardinal offense will end with the question of just how you stop them. They were great in 2008, and they’re going to be great in 2009.

If Arizona’s defense plays like they did in the playoffs, this team bucks history and gets back to the big game. But that’s a huge if, particularly with Smith’s departure.

Arizona has no pass rush. They’re going to try and address that this year by alternating between a 4-3 and 3-4 alignment, and increasing the pressure from the outside.

Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell should both work well at the end positions regardless of the alignment, but inside there could be a problem, as their nose tackle is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years.

In the 3-4, Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry will line up in the outside linebacker spots.

That’s not ideal, as Okeafor got just 4.5 sacks in 2008 and will be 33 this season. Bertrand Berry led the team with five sacks last season. But he turns 34 in August, and he’s missed 23 games the past four years.

At inside linebacker the Cardinals have one of the best in the league in Karlos Dansby, and they also have a great secondary anchored by cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the newly acquired Bryant McFadden.

So it looks pretty good on the surface. But again the problem of no pressure persists. Even the best corners in the league can’t keep a receiver blanketed for the entire play–give any quarterback enough time and he’ll find an open man.

And given that the Cardinals are mediocre against the run, that almost writes the script on how to beat them. Run the ball, eat up clock, and make Warner and Fitzgerald try and beat you from the bench.

The Panthers are just the sort of team that can pull a plan like that off. And there are a couple of guarantees for this game. First, the Panthers won’t run it down the field in the first drive and then rely on Jake and Jake alone the rest of the game.

Second, there will be someone on Larry Fitzgerald at all times. Count on it.

And count on one of the best efforts from a Panthers team in years. This is a great candidate for a victory on the road.

Carolina leads the series 6-3

 

Week Five, at the New Orleans Saints

2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: First (1st in passing, 28th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)

After Arizona, this is going to feel like an “out of the frying pan, into the fire” game for the Carolina defense. And for the second straight week, the offense will be having fun out there.

The 2008 edition of the New Orleans Saints was marked by an ability to seemingly move the ball at will. But as effective as they were on offense, they were bad on defense. To address this, they added two critical pieces to their team.

The first is attitude. The Saints brought in defensive coordinator Greg Williams to add toughness, but as he showed in Jacksonville there’s only so much you can do when you don’t have strong personnel.

Williams’ scheme is fast, attacking, and oriented towards forcing turnovers. The secondary is required to blitz, cover, and tackle. Without talent though, there’s not a lot that can be done.

So the Saints went out and signed Jabari Greer from Buffalo to play at one cornerback position and at the other will probably go with Tracy Porter, who looked good in the 10 games he played last year.

Roman Harper will likely line up at strong safety while the second critical piece of their defensive rebuild will take the free safety spot, former Ohio State star Malcolm Jenkins.

Jenkins is just a rookie, but he should immediately become the most talented player in the New Orleans secondary.

The linebackers boast the presence of Jonathan Vilma, but they also return Scott Fujita and Scott Schanle. Both topped 100 tackles a year ago, but when the tackles are coming five yards off the line of scrimmage that’s not a lot to brag about.

On the line, Sedrick Ellis had a decent rookie year, but had to deal with nagging injury issues. He could use some help inside but didn’t really get much. The Saints signed Rod Colman from Atlanta, but he’s 33 and not known for his ability to stuff the run.

At the ends, the Saints have two chronic underachievers in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both of them will miss the first four games in 2009 for violating in the League’s drug policy.

On offense the Saints return Drew Brees, who’s possibly the best .500 NFL quarterback in history.

In ways he personifies the Saints.  No one gets better stats, but his lifetime record as a starter is just 55-51.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will return in the backfield, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey will be healthy, and the line will be good again. There’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score as much as they did in 2009. This is the best offense in the NFL.

But last year the best offense in the NFL did nothing more than break even. The Saints were terrible on the road in 2008, and couldn’t win the close games.

Look for the Saints to stumble out of the gate again, largely due to a complete inability to pressure the opposing quarterback.

They probably won’t get hit by injuries again like they did in 2008, but regardless of the reason, missed games are missed games. Losing both ends for the first four games hurts, particularly for a coach who’s not known for fast starts.

By this time though, they’ll be turning their season around. They’ll be fresh off a home game against Atlanta, a team they’ve owned in recent years, and they’ll be at home and fired up.

But at the same time, Jake Delhomme has an 8-2 record against the Saints, and is undefeated in the Superdome.

New Orleans won’t stop Carolina, and Carolina probably won’t stop the Saints. Between these two teams there’s never a guarantee, and the winner of this one will probably be whoever wins the turnovers battle.

Carolina leads the series 16-12

 

Conclusion

After the first four games, this quarter almost looks like a breather. There are at least two very winnable games here in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and even though they’re playing on the road the Panthers have won a lot in both Arizona and New Orleans.

Don’t be surprised at a 3-1 quarter here. If the injuries have been manageable and the defense has responded to Meeks’ system, don’t be surprised at 4-0 either.

As in 2008, when the Panthers can run at will they’re probable winners. And none of these four teams has what it takes to shut them down.

Barring a total collapse, the Panthers will be at least 4-4 at the end of this quarter. There’s a very good chance at 5-3, and 6-2 isn’t out of the question. That’s good news heading into the third quarter.

The Panthers have not been great in November under John Fox, but this year they’ll get three of four games at home and all four look like good candidates for W’s.

More on that next week though, when we explore the third quarter of 2009.

The New York Giants’ Biggest Defensive Addition? Osi Umenyiora

A lot has been made of the New York Giants offseason acquisitions, especially those made along the defensive line. And why not? After all, the additions of Rocky Bernard and Chris Canty, in particular, give the Giants the best defensive line in the NFL—at least on paper.

But when the season actually begins and these players actually start to produce, it may not be Bernard, Canty, or even linebacker Michael Boley that have the biggest impact for Big Blue.

In fact, the key to their potential defensive success will actually come from someone who was already on the roster, but a player that has been somewhat overlooked because of a very good draft and solid free agency period.

Osi Umenyiora is a lot like a fantastic cleanup hitter in baseball. He’s going to give the player in front of him, in this case, Justin Tuck, a lot of protection, and then he’ll produce big numbers all on his own.

This isn’t a knock on Mathias Kiwanuka, who is a fantastic defensive end in his own right, but he’s no Umenyiora. And while he did a good job filling in for Chief Osi last season…

Read more: Giants 101

NY Giants-Philadelphia Eagles: By the Numbers in 2009

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Since the Eagles knocked the Giants out of the 2008 playoffs, Philadelphia fans are talking about a special run at the Super Bowl. Eagles fans believe that the Birds are a much better team than the GMen, especially now that McNabb finally has some explosive weapons.

The head to head/position by position 2009 preview lies below, by the numbers.

QB: edge—Even

Eagles—A healthy McNabb with a new $5 million dollar bonus can be dangerous, but has choked down the stretch and is thirty-three years old this November. His arm was sore in mini camp and he was wearing a protective sleeve.

Giants—The former Super Bowl MVP lost two major weapons, but has another year of experience. His accuracy can be questioned, but his consistancy can’t be! He also has some new, young talent around him.

 

RB: edge—Giants

Eagles—Brian Westbrook has basically been injured his entire career. It’s amazing the productivity he has been able to put out so far. Last month (June), B-West had ankle surgery and will mostly likely miss Training Camp. 

Why did he wait so long to have the surgery? Will he be ready? The rookie RB LeSean McCoy from Pitt will be exciting if and when he gets on the field.

Giants—Jacobs is a true beast who runs around you, through you and over you. No. 44 Bradshaw is already proven, and can be a very special player with break-away speed.             

O-line: edge—Giants

Giants—This could be the best o-line in football. This group blocked for two 1000-yard rushers in 2008. This feat has only been done four times in the league history. O’Hara & Snee are recent Pro bowlers. 

There’s no reason why they would be slowing down. The entire group is under 31. 

Eagles—This unit has a bit of uncertainty after losing both starting tackles—tough guy Jon Runyon (eight years) and Tra Thomas (ten years).

Jason Peters is a great pro bowl addition; however, he is not the best tackle in football claimed (as by another B/R journalist) and Shawn Andrews the Pro Bowl guard is taking medication to fight depression! 

He states that he has been fighting this problem on his desire to play or retire. Center Jackson and RG Stacy Andrews are good not but elite players.

 

WR: edge—Eagles

Eagles—Curtis and last year’s sensational rookie DeSean Jackson are great slot receivers with plenty of speed and upside. Rumor has it that Curtis might become expendable if Maclin is the real deal. Tight End Brent Celek is a good passing tight end, but struggles when blocking. 

Avant doesn’t scare anyone, but the jury is out—Maclin could be the “weapon” McNabb has been asking for!

Giants—Steve Smith is the most reliable receiver on the Giants, and he has made some great catches to earn Eli’s trust and favorite target status.

But he can’t do it alone. Hixon made some nice strides but he’s not a No. 1 receiver. He can stretch the field, but needs to be more consistent.

Moss, Manningham and Nicks…not healthy, not reliable and not known. It will be interesting. If TE Kevin Boss or Ramses Barden, the 6’6 second-round draft pick, can take over for the Giants in the red-zone for a jump ball, Big Blue might draw this position competition to even.

 

D-line: edge—Giants

Giants—can you say oh my god! This d-line will most likely will lead the NFL or come in the top 3 in sacks. This unit was already real good, but with the addition of No. 99 Chris Canty (Cowboys) and Rocky Benard (Seahawks), the men in the trenches look really scary. 

Justin Tuck is one of the NFL’s most dominant players, and big Fred Robbins in the middle will be joined by Canty & Benard. Ball carriers, beware! Speed rusher DE Dave Tollefson is great off the bench and now with DE Kiwanuka wearing #94 and Pro Bowler Osi Umenyora back, this line is the most complete in football.

Eagles—This unit is a bit undersized and it shows throughout the season as their star DE #58 Trent Cole usually disappears round game 9.   #98 Patterson & #97 Bunkley are solid in the middle but there overall production is somewhat below average. 

In 2008 they had 2.5 sacks between them.  In 2008 Robbins and Cofield had 8.8 between them. The other Eagle defensive linemen have not made any real contributions.

 

Line backers: Eagles

Giants—Pro-bowl linebacker Antonio Pierce had somewhat of a down year for one of the smartest middle linebackers in the game, partly because Kawika Mitchell moved on. During the 2008, No. 57 Chase Blackburn became the weak side linebacker and was also named a 1st alternate to the NFC Pro Bowl team. He was by far the Giants’ biggest surprise of the year.  

 

No. 53 Kehl is developing into a nice player who contributed last year in a big way after bring drafted from BYU. No. 55 Danny Clark lacks big play ability but is as solid as it comes. Michael Boley…the big off season transaction is already hurt and out for ten weeks with Hip surgery.                                                                                                                                                                                       

Eagles—No. 55 Stewart Bradley is a pure stud—leaps and bounds better than most middle linebackers. He will become a multi-time Pro Bowler, and can run sideline to sideline with the best of them. 

No. 57 Chris Gocong, the starting strong side linebacker, is probably the most improved player on the defense, but No. 56 Akeem Jordan is young and raw. No. 96 Omar Gaither lost his starting job mid way through the season. Some say it was because he did not want to sign the Eagles extension.

Still this group is strong and can play fast and furious.             

 

Defensive Backs: edge—Even

Giants—the most improved unit on the team.  The light bulb has gone on for No. 23 Corey Webster, for he has played two years of great football. His coverage skills dramatically improved, and his ball skills have been exceptional as Webster has made some really big INTs! 

Aaron Ross, the Giants No. 1 draft pick in 2007, also became a great cover corner, and even better, a superb open field tackler. Ross has great speed and is used frequently on the safety blitz.   

The safeties are under a bit of construction, but the ’08 first-round draft pick, No. 21 Kenny Phillips from Miami, is ready to have a breakout season. He showed some great flashes last year, and look out for some MONSTER hits! Phillips is 6”2, with a 210 lb frame.

Eagles—The face of the franchise and seven-time pro bowler, Brian “The Wolverine” Dawkins, was disrespectfully shown the door, and so he left for Denver. No. 27 Quintin Mikell and No. 39 Quintin Demps take over as the safety duo.  

Mikell made the Pro Bowl as an alternate last year, and has come a long way under the guidance of Brian Dawkins. There’s no way to know what Demps brings to the table; however, he did get beat for the game-winning touchdown in the past NFC Championship game vs. Arizona.

Asante Samuel was quite a disappointment in his first year with gang green, as he only had 4 interceptions and 40 tackles. 

Their best cover corner, the hard hitting No. 24 Sheldon Brown, is back, but there are problems in the City of Brotherly Love (see Lito Sheppard) as the always-cheap Eagles won’t restructure his contract.

Brown, who has never missed a game in his tenure, has been the most consistent player on the defensive unit and deserves to get paid for his hard work and dedication, especially since they just paid No. 21 Joselio Hanson, the nickel back.  

As a footnote, first-round draft pick and two-time Pro Bowler Sheppard was basically run out of town because he asked for more money.

 

Special Team:  Giants

Giants—This is an easy one; Jeff Feagles is amazing even at 43. That’s 22 years in the NFL, and there is no better weapon! Lawrence Tynes kicked the Giants to a Super Bowl in the coldest game in history.

No. 87 Dominick Hixon & No. 44 Ahmad Bradshaw are extremely dangerous each averaging 25 yards a return.

Eagles—Sav Rocca is average. Akers is older and lost some leg after tearing that hamstring a few years back. Plus, he just can’t get it done in the playoffs. No. 10 DeSean Jackson is very special, but I feel that at 175lbs. he won’t last long. As far as No. 39 Quintin Demps, the jury is still out.

Who’s Going to The NFL Playoffs? Representatives From Each Conference

So during this long part of the offseason in between OTA’s and training camp we fans sit down and become incredibly optimistic about our own teams as we read reports predicting our Super Bowl bound destiny’s.

Well here I’m going to predict the NFL Playoffs for you (without individuals scores) and explain why each team got in, and then predict how the playoffs went.

 

AFC: (In order of seed)

1. AFC East: Patriots

The Patriots are back and better than ever! Tom Brady is back from surgery and has been rehabing his knee long enough that it should not be bothering him. Reports coming back from all specialists say that Brady is far ahead of schedule in his recovery and it looks like his knee is moving very naturally.

The offense has the potential to be even more lethal than in 2007 with the addition of Joey Galloway. With Randy Moss and Joey Galloway stretching the field with their speed and athleticism Wes Welker will have the ability to tear up the rest of the field at the slot position.

I mean, how many people can you double cover? I also like the addition of Fred Taylor and Shawn Springs to the team. Two experienced players who know football incredibly well.

 

2. AFC North: Steelers

The Steelers have only gotten better this offseason. They are returning with 10 of their 11 starters on defense, and Big Ben is only getting better after every season.

 

3. AFC West: Chargers

I think that the Chargers finally realized what they have in Darren Sproles, a back who can do it all while still giving LT plenty of rest and time to shine. Phillip Rivers is establishing himself as one of the best in the game and Antonio Gates looks to contribute even more after making a full recovery.

Also, the addition of a healthy Shawn Merriman will bring the defense up a notch.

 

AFC South: Colts

No matter who his head coach, offensive coordinator or the offensive line coach is, Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. The offense will continue along fine without Marvin Harrison and Manning will make it happen in Indianapolis.

 

Wild Card : Ravens

Unfortunately they will not win their division but the Ravens look to be one of the best teams in the conference. Joe Flacco has another year under his belt.

The defense however won’t quite be the same without Rex Ryan leading, but it should still be a top 5 defense purely because of the talent on that side of the ball.

 

Wild Card: Texans

This is the only team I’m not 100% will make the post season. I really like the Texans, and I want them to win. The team has made a concentrated effort to focus on red zone efficiency (by far their weakest point last season). Andre ‘the giant’ Johnson still can’t be double covered and Steve Slaton looks to be poised for a big sophmore season.

 

Wild Card Weekend:

Chargers > Texans

Ravens > Colts

 

Divisional Round:

Patriots > Ravens

Steelers > Chargers

AFC Championship:

Patriots > Steelers

 

AFC Rep. In Super Bowl: New England Patriots

NFC: (In order of seeding)

NFC East: Eagles

Now I could go on for hours about why the Eagle’s are making the playoffs (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/206020-why-the-eagles-will-go-to-the-superbowl ) but here is the basic gist of why they are going to be the No. 1 seed in the conference. McNabb is happy with his contract.

The Eagles got a dependable backup in LeSean McCoy where they don’t have to change the system for a change up back (i.e. Buckhalter).

The offensive line is new and improved with the additions of Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews and the return of Shawn Andrews. The Receiving Corps is looking great with DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis and Jeremy Maclin stretching the field.

Eagles fans check out my blog at http://www.igglesfanatics.blogspot.com

 

NFC South: Panthers

The Panthers have recently settled their major offseason concern when Julius Peppers signed his franchise tender. Now one of the best Defensive Linemen in football is returning to a defense built around him.

The offense looks great as always with Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad leading the receiving corps, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams running down the field and the clock, and Jake Delhomme playing efficiently (forget the playoff game last year guys, it won’t happen again)

 

NFC North: Bears

Jay Cutler plays a huge role in this decision. It was either between the Bears and the Vikings: essentially Cutler vs. Favre. I really like Cutler in this battle. I think that Jay Cutler+Devin Hester+Matt Forte = great offense.

Cutler may not have Brandon Marshall like he did in Denver, but he still does have weapons. I think that the Bears are ready to take back the division.

Side Note: That being said, if Jay Cutler is a flop, I unofficially pick the Vikings.

 

NFC West: Seahawks

I know, why aren’t the Cardinals, the NFC rep in the super bowl, making the playoffs. It’s simple, because I believe in the Seahawks more than the Cardinals. Matt Hasselback is back, with a new weapon in T.J. Houshmanzadah.

The defense looks strong this year. The reason that the Seahawks floundered last year is really because of injuries. The Seahawks ended the season last year with 19 (I think) players on IR. That can’t happen twice.

 

Wild Card: Giants

The Giants are playing in a tough division, and that is the sole reason why they won’t win it. Their defense looks as strong as ever, with Osi Umenyiora returning. The Giant’s running game should return as strong as ever, with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw busting through the O Line.

The only problem I foresee is the loss of Plax and the go-to-guy for Eli Manning. I don’t think that Hakeem Nicks is going to develop THAT quickly. The receiving corps looks great, but when Manning is in trouble I am going to question what he does with the ball.

 

Wild Card: Saints

The Saints also are playing in a tough division. Drew Brees looks to establish himself as an elite QB along with the likes of Brady, Manning, and Rivers. I think that Reggie Bush is poised for a breakout season, as long as he can stay healthy.

Pierre Thomas will chip in quite a bit, as I see them trying to use Bush in the passing game a lot. I doubt Brees will come close to setting any records this year, but an explosive offense and a solid defense should get them into the playoffs.

 

Wild Card Weekend:

Saints > Bears

Giants > Seahawks

 

Divisional Round:

Eagles > Saints

Giants > Panthers

 

Championship

Eagles > Giants

 

NFC Rep during Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles

And the winner is…

The Eagles!

This will be a revenge game for the Eagles, having lost to the Patriots in 2004. The Eagles defense will slow down the Patriots offense like it did in 2007 (remember, the Eagle’s came very close to winning that game).

The Patriots will fight back though and it will be a close game. I predict that the score will be 24-21 and that it will be decided by a last second David Akers FG.

Mojo Rising: Maurice Jones-Drew’s Fantasy Value

Since the decision for Maurice Jones-Drew to become the featured back in Jacksonville was made, MJD’s fantasy value has taken a huge boost.

Behind Fred Taylor in the depth Chart MJD has been a No. 2 or No.3 option on most fantasy rosters.

Now that he is the featured back in Jacksonville. He has moved to a solid first round pick. MJD is projected to go any were from No. 2 overall to No. 5 in most fantasy drafts this year.

Last season Maurice Jones-Drew totaled 1,389 yards and 14 touchdowns. MJD had 824 rushing yards with 12 touchdowns. He also had 62 receptions for 565 yards and 2 touchdowns.

MJD managed to put up those numbers not only behind Fred Taylor on the depth chart. Also the Jaguars offensive line was decimated with injuries.

Last season, both starting guards, Vince Manuwai and Maurice Williams, were injured in week one and missed the rest of the ’08 season.

Center Brad Meester also missed six games during the season as well.

During the offseason the Jags were dedicated to improving their O-Line. They signed free agent Tra Thomas. Their first two drafts picks were OT Eugene Monroe, and OT Eben Britton.

Jones-Drew has never had less than 1,100 total yards and 9 touchdowns in a season.

The biggest question for MJD this season is can he carry the load of the rushing game in Jacksonville.

Let’s take a look at all of the games from last year that he had 15-plus carries:

The first time was Week Three at Indianapolis. Last year, the Colts ranked 24th against the rush on defense. In that game, Jones-Drew had 19 carries for 107 yards and one touchdown.

Week Six was against the Denver Broncos. The Broncos’ defense was ranked 27th against the rush last year. Jones-Drew carried the ball 22 times and had 125 yards and two touchdowns.

Week 11 was against the Tennessee Titans. Jones-Drew had 17 carries for 66 yards and two touchdowns. The Titans were ranked sixth against the rush last year.

Week 16 was against the Colts in Jacksonville. Jones-Drew had 20 carries for 90 yards but also failed to score a touchdown.

Jones-Drew also failed to score against the Ravens in Week 17 last season. He did have 23 carries and 78 yards against the defense that ranked third against the run.

Even though there are still questions with MJD, he has a lot of upside. He is a small, fast, powerful, elusive, versatile back. Much like the Eagles “Mr. everything” Brian Westbrook. However, MJD is much more durable and has only missed one game in three years with Jacksonville.

He has carried the ball an average of 176 times in his three seasons in Jacksonville.

Last season was the most with 197 attempts. He did have an all time low rushing average with only 4.2 yards per carry.

In his rookie season MJD’s average carry was 5.7 yards with 166 rushing attempts. In ’07 his average was 4.6 yards with 167 attempts.

With his new role as the featured back he should see at least 300 carries. Don’t expect the high averages in ’06 and ’07. With the upgraded line he should average around 4.2-4.5 yards a carry. He should reach around 1,300 rushing yards this season.

Jones-Drew is also a vital part in the Jaguars passing attack. Last season he caught a career high 62 receptions, and 565 yards. In ’06 he had 46 receptions for 436 yards. In ’07 MJD had 40 receptions for 407 yards.

In the ’09 season don’t look for him to repeat the 62 receptions. He still should post around 45-50 receptions, and around an additional 400 yards.

Also I project MJD to score 15-20 total touchdowns in ’09.

Some of MJD’s favorable match ups against the run are.

Week One and 15 against the Colts (ranked 24th)

Week Two against the Cardinals (ranked 16th)

Week Three and 13 against the Texans (ranked 23rd)

Week Five against the Seahawks (ranked 18th)

Week Six against the Rams (ranked 29th)

Week Nine against the Chiefs (ranked 30th)

Week 11 against the Bills (ranked 22nd)

MJD will also face the titans, Jets, and Dolphins. Those three teams were ranked in the top 10 against the run in ’08.

Jones-Drew’s fantasy playoff schedule includes.

Week 14 Dolphins (ranked 10)

Week 15 Colts (ranked 24th)

Week 16 New England (ranked 15th)

Maurice Jones-Drew should have a very productive ’09 season. He should warrant consideration as the No. 2 overall after Adrian Peterson is taken in all drafts this year.

Matt Forte and Michael Turner will also be in the mix as the top backs taken after Adrian Peterson in most drafts this season.

Top 10 QBs Under the Age of 30

This list is based on almost strictly production and future potential, as well as ability. In other words, I don’t put much weight behind this winner/loser stuff, and I put a high value on fourth-quarter performance. This is simply ‘Who is the better pure QB’, as well as to a slightly lesser extent who I believe will succeed more in the future.

 

10. Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens—I definitely think Flacco gets far too much credit for the Ravens playoff run, as he did nothing but babysit essentially, but I’ve already beaten the topic of ‘winner/loser’ to a pulp.

Flacco has all the physical tools you want in a QB, and seems to have the desire to get better. If the Ravens get him a WR (Marshall?), Flacco could be one of the top QBs in the league for the next decade.

 

9. Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans—While this guy cannot stay healthy, when he is actually on the field he is very effective. Last year in 11 games, Schaub threw 15 TDs, 10 INTs, 3,043 yds and had a 66 percent completion percentage.

If he can stay healthy, he has plenty of weapons at his disposal like Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels and enough ability to make use of these weapons.

 

8. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons—The only reason he is so low is because he is a rookie. Ryan came in and took the league by storm in his first year, shutting up many of his critics, myself included.

I can only imagine with another year in the same offense, and being surrounded by weaponry such as Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White, Jerious Norwood (the most underused player in the NFL this side of Leon Washington), and Mike Turner. The sky is the limit for Matt Ryan.

 

7. Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants—Eli is one of my favorites in the league, and his spot on the list will probably be surprising to some, but Manning played under control football for the first time in his career last season, and I think he succumbs ability-wise to the rest of the guys on the list.

Eli will probably never be “great” statistically and from a “eye test” standpoint, but when the game is on the line there are few QBs in the game more trustworthy than Eli.

 

6. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers—I have a weird way of ranking Ben Roethlisberger. His toughness, his leadership and most of all his ridiculous habit of pulling magic out of his hat in the fourth quarter has me place him in the top five in the NFL.

There is no one I’d rather have with the ball in his hands in the fourth quarter. That being said, Roethlisberger has a lot of flaws, and has only been impressive statistically for one season in the NFL, and since I am rating on mostly ability and production that’s what pits him sixth.

 

5. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers—I debated back and forth for a few minutes between Rodgers and Romo, but being consistent with my theme that Romo is actually one of the more UNDERRATED players in the NFL, I went with Rodgers at this spot.

Rodgers came in last year, after about a decade waiting on Old Man River to move on. He threw for 4,038 yards, 28 TDs and 13 INTs and led the Packers to a top-10 offense. The future is bright in Mr. Rodgers neighborhood.

 

4. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys—As I mentioned above, I think Romo gets hated on to the point where he is actually one of the NFL’s more under-appreciated and underrated players. After all if EVERYONE and their mother says the guy is overrated, does that make him underrated? I call that the ‘Tiki Barber argument’.

Every one on planet earth said Barber was underrated, so if everyone acknowledges that he is underrated, how he is still underrated?

Anyway, back to Romo, the guy has always had the luxury of having Terrell Owens around him and has put up monster numbers, throwing for 62 TDs, and 7,659 yards over the course of the last two seasons.

Along with great production, he has a great feel for the pocket and makes Dallas’ offensive line look a lot better than it is. He has some decision-making deficiencies at times, but perhaps he will get better with that over the course of time.

 

3. Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears—The 2-5 segment of this list was really thought-provoking. I like Cutler’s production, and the fact that he did it in his second year starting as well as him probably having among the most raw talent at the position.

It will be interesting to see how he adjusts this season going from having a guy like Marshall compared to having a guy like Devin Hester (is that night and day or what?) , though I do think the fact that he is a good, accurate QB who gets the ball there in the blink of an eye could make the players around him better.

Also, I think Matt Forte is arguably the biggest benefactor of the trade, since he will have more space to do his thing. The Bears should do their best to build their offense around Jay, get him some reliable pass catching targets to compliment Olsen and their running game.

If they do that, they’ll have their first franchise QB since World War I.

 

2. Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati Bengals—As I said earlier, the 2-5 segment of this was very thought-provoking. I had Palmer at every single spot at one point or another, before I finally settled on the No. 2 spot for him.

He is coming off an injury-plagued campaign, where he struggled and eventually was KO’ed for the season a quarter of the way through it. But the two seasons before that he did throw 54 TD passes and for over 8,000 yards.

It’s hard to argue with a guy with Palmer’s natural ability and total production rebounding and playing like the elite QB he is.

 

1. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers– Even though he throws the ball like he is in a shotput competition at the Olympics, Rivers gets the job done. He gets better each season, and last year led to a 34 TD, 11 INT, 4,000-yard campaign.

He has a nice set of weapons at his disposal. Having stability around him as far as the playbook helps immensely. It seems like everyone understands that except the Washington Redskins. Barring any injury problems, Rivers should and probably will put up big numbers on a consistent basis for the San Diego Chargers.

Ranking the NFL’s Top 10 Rookies in 2009

This is a list of the top ten rookies in the NFL for this year. This list is based on the potential playing time, and the systems in which they are placed into.
Some positions are more favorable for rookies, therefore some of the more sexy position players may not be at the top of the list. Usually defensive players are more effective as rookies, and I took that into account when creating this list.
The NFL usually only has a few rookies each year that burst onto the scene. It is hard to figure out who will shine and who will even get any playing time. It wouldn’t surprise me to look back on this list after the season is over with and laugh at most of them. Anyway, lets take a look at the top 10.

Brett Favre: What Will the Off-Season look like when he is truly gone?

Around the months of March through June, the NFL offseason goes through a hiatus of sorts. It’s a natural occurrence this time of year, and usually forces us football fans to span out and watch baseball, or observe the NBA and NHL drafts.

However, the past two seasons, NFL fans have been spoiled by the Brett Favre saga.

It has kept football fans with a strong grapple on the pulse of the NFL due to Favre’s “comebacks.” Implications of him coming back have changed team’s outlooks on the season and fan’s expectations of teams.

In 2008, the Jets came in with “playoffs or bust” expectations. Ironically enough, the Vikings of 2009 are in a “Super Bowl or bust” mode. With this set as the highest risk for both parties involved (Favre and the Vikings), there is no higher reason why he would want to return again…then again, we’ve all heard this song before.

But fortunately, science has taught us that players can only play so long before they literally will have nothing left in their bodies, and break down. In that sense, unless this surgery that Favre had on his arm makes it permanently immune to pain or exhaustion, 2009 will be his last year in the NFL.

With all joking aside, Favre has been a big influence on how the NFL offseason flows. Without Favre, the offseason is lifeless from draft to camp.

With that said, what will become of the period of time from March until July?

Terrell Owens is one of the more likely candidates to fulfill this role with age and persona. He also has the whole “crying during press conferences” down. However, without an NFL career record that automatically fulfills his role for the Hall of Fame, he won’t be as lucky to sign with many teams if Buffalo doesn’t work out.

Otherwise, the Michael Vick story may produce some steam. But like Owens, Vick comes with baggage and a personality of sorts. He could easily fill the role…if someone signs him first…and THEN he proves he’s still “got it.”

There’s Pacman Jones. Although, like Vick, someone will have to hire him first. But, his personality seems to make the biggest splash. It doesn’t help that his past sends a clear image of what their getting when a team signs him. Heck, Jerry Jones wouldn’t even put up with it in Dallas and he let Owens play there for three seasons.

Favre’s situation has seen imminent moves of late. Favre had surgery last month to help with his pain from his partially torn tendon in his throwing shoulder. The Vikings then recently sent a trainer down to evaluate Favre and his progress.

Favre has also had reports of purchasing hotel accommodations for his family in the Green Bay area the weekend the Vikings play at Lambeau. It’s also been reported the Brett purchased a house in Eden Prarie, Minnesota.

On top of all that, it’s been reported through WCCO, a local Minnesota radio/television station, that the Minnesota Vikings have ordered “Favre No. 4” jerseys.

As such, it’s been assumed and reported through anonymous sources (I personally wonder who these “sources” are) that the Minnesota Vikings and Brett Favre have reached an agreement of terms in contract negotiations, despite Favre’s agent “Bus” Cook denying all rumors.

The rumors have also stretched to the point that it is assumed the Vikings already has Favre under an $8-to-10 million deal for the 2009 season. However, I’m not willing to bite on any of these lines that the media hands out until I see the press conference myself.

The madness is somehow intoxicating and frustrating, but what would we be doing otherwise? Watching a baseball team in interleague play? Watching the Stanley Cup playoffs? (actually wait…scratch that)

For crying out loud, the only other highlights we get from football this time of year are comments from retired players about how our generation has plummeted. For that, I believe the NFL should send Favre a card to express their gratitude for all the attention in their quietest moments of the year.

Then again…NFLPA contract hasn’t been done yet…he could still back out… then again…yeah right…

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