Fantasy Football Profile: LaDainian Tomlinson

LaDainian Tomlinson did not live up to his top two (along with AP) draft status last year. 

He “only” had 1,110 rushing yards and 11 TDs. Though, he did add 426 receiving yards with a TD to give him 1,536 total yards and 12 total TDs.

Despite the good numbers, it’s not what fantasy owners came to expect from LT. However, it’s still considered very good fantasy production, especially considering he was hobbled by injury last year.

With Tomlinson recently turning 30, coupled with Darren Sproles’ playoff run, many question LT’s fantasy value. While he will likely never return to his 2002-2007 level, there is no reason to think he can’t match or exceed last year’s production. Since he is being taken in the mid-to-late first round in fantasy drafts, he should be an excellent value in 2009.

LT has some great matchups this year. 

He faces Oakland in both Week One and Week Nine, Kansas City in Week Seven and Week 12, Denver in Week Six and Week 11, Cleveland in Week 13, and Cincinnati in Week 15. He does have some tough games on his schedule though (Baltimore in Week Two, Pittsburgh in Week Four, NYG in Week Nine, and Philly in Week 10), but they do not fall in his fantasy playoff schedule. 

He faces Dallas, Cincinnati, and Tennessee through Week 14-16. Tennessee could be a tough matchup in the fantasy football championship, but they won’t be the same without Albert Haynesworth.

I can see LT going somewhere between the fourth and 10th pick in the fantasy draft. Personally I would take him with the fifth pick.  I expect him to put up 1,700 total yards and 10-plus TDs next year.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com.

Marques Colston: 2009 Projection

A seventh round draft pick out of Hofstra in 2006, Marques Colston burst onto the scene in his rookie year, picking up 1,038 yards receiving as well as eight TDs. He followed that up in 2007 by catching 98 passes for 1,202 yards and 11 TDs, entrenching himself among the league’s best receivers.

His 2008 season, however, was partially derailed by injury. After playing in the team’s opener, he was sidelined for the next five games after tearing ligament in his thumb that had to be corrected via surgery. He came back in Week 7, starting the game, but didn’t register a catch.

He wasn’t shutout the rest of the season, picking up 100 yards receiving games in three of the final nine games, as well as a 99-yard contest. If there were any concerns that he hadn’t returned to form, he scored four TDs over the season’s final three weeks.

He enters 2009 as the top receiver for the team with the best QB in the league, though he is coming off surgery on his knee this offseason. It was considered a minor procedure involving “some microfracture techniques.” It certainly is worth noting, though thus far this season he hasn’t shown any ill effects.

Mike Triplett of The New Orleans Times-Picayune has noted how Colston may be the main target in the red zone, recently describing the red zone drills in practice by saying:

“Brees repeatedly fired the ball in Colston’s direction. He caught one easy touchdown pass, using his size to shield the closest defensive back (who was obstructed from my view). On the next play, Brees scrambled away from pressure and threw high toward Colston in the back of the end zone over corner back Jabari Greer. Colston leapt for it and wasn’t able to reel it in—but that’s a catch he’ll make once he gets back in his rhythm. The important thing is that he’s a target Brees trusts and looks for in those situations.”

Considering the way he ended 2008 and his ability to score TDs in the past, this is very promising for fantasy owners. It certainly would not be surprising to see him once again score double-digit TDs, making him a potential No. 1 WR in all formats and certainly a great No. 2.

As for what I would project him doing this season, I’d put him at:

Receiving: 78 catches, 1,180 yards, 10 TD

The catches aren’t necessarily going to put him at the top of the league’s leader board, but the yards and TDs place him among the best. There were only 10 receivers last season who had over 1,100 yards and only seven who managed double-digit TDs.

There’s no doubt he’s a risk, especially with the knee surgery he’s coming off, but it doesn’t seem like it’s effecting him. If it’s last season’s production that concerns you, just listen to Drew Brees, who is quoted on CBS as saying “I think he’s a guy who’s somewhat of a get-in-a-rhythm kind of guy and can be very successful.”

He went on to say that, “Unfortunately  last year, he had a great preseason and then that first game (he got injured). And then he’s out five or six weeks. It takes a little while to get back in the swing of things, because everybody else around you on the team and the teams that you’re playing, they’re in a rhythm.”

His ADP is currently 25.76, and he’s about the 10th receiver off the board, according to Mock Draft Central. That may be a little early, given the inherent risk, but not too far off.

I’d say, draft him with confidence in 2009. What does everyone else think? How good will Colston be? Is he a player you’re targeting?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Five Training Camp Battles to Watch

NFL training camps began opening last Saturday, meaning the start of the 2009 season has finally arrived. This time of year is extremely important for fantasy owners because with drafts just around the corner, now is the time to get a handle on the various roles players around the league will assume entering the season.

Several positional battles will get underway in the coming weeks that will have major implications in your fantasy leagues. With that in mind, here are five training camp battles that owners should keep a close eye on over the next few weeks. The NFP will be providing training camp breakdowns in our 2009 Fantasy Draft Guide.

 

The Hot Spot: Baltimore

The Battle: Running Back

The Contenders: Ray Rice, Le’Ron McClain, Willis McGahee

What to expect: Entering camp, it looks like second-year back Ray Rice will be the primary ball carrier in Baltimore this year.

Rice added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and is ready to bounce back from an injury-plagued 2008 campaign that saw him gain only 454 yards on 107 carries (4.2 YPC). He gives the Ravens their best chance to break a big play via the ground game.

However, don’t get caught sleeping on bruising fullback Le’Ron McClain. While “Big Boy” will likely see a somewhat reduced role in the Ravens’ rushing attack with both Rice and McGahee healthy, he’s still going to be featured in short-yardage and goal-line situations.

McClain may not rack up the big-time yards, but he could serve as a nice flex option due to his goal-line opportunities. The Ravens definitely have a role for him.

The wild card in the group is McGahee. The key to his role in Baltimore this season will be how he looks during training camp. One of the main reasons head coach John Harbaugh has Rice working with the first unit right now is to push McGahee and see how he responds.

Remember, McGahee’s cap number this season is $3.12 million and he still has four years left on his contract, with cap numbers ranging from $6.1 million to $9 million. That’s a big investment.

Fantasy Projections: As of now, owners should rank the Baltimore backfield Rice, McClain, McGahee. If McGahee doesn’t have an impressive camp, he may not be worthy of a draft pick.

 

The Hot Spot: Tampa Bay

The Battle: Quarterback

The Contenders: Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Josh Freeman

What to expect: We projected Leftwich as the Week 1 starter in May, and it looks like that prediction is going to hold true. Michael Lombardi discussed this situation in his Sunday Post column, noting that he has heard “Leftwich has a great command and the locker room is in love with him.”

This is great news for Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, and Derrick Ward, all of whom get high rankings in the 2009 edition of our draft guide. Leftwich has the most experience, and his skill set is best suited to find success in this offense.

However, don’t be surprised if rookie Josh Freeman takes over the job at some point this season. Lombardi mentioned that the Tampa organization is “excited about Freeman,” meaning a good training camp and steady progress with the playbook throughout the year could lead to playing time.

The odd man out appears to be McCown. While he certainly still has an opportunity to impress the coaching staff with a strong preseason, it looks like he’s going to need a Leftwich stumble in order to crack the starting lineup.

Fantasy Projections: Leftwich is on the border of being an NFP sleeper this year, so owners should look for him as a QB2 on draft day if he eventually wins the job. McCown and Freeman aren’t draft worthy in our opinion.

 

The Hot Spot: New York (Jets)

The Battle: Running Back

The Contenders: Thomas Jones, Leon Washington, Shonn Greene

What to expect: First things first: Expect Leon Washington to be Leon Washington. He’s a dynamic dual-threat back that New York is going to use no matter what because he brings a change of pace to the offense. Washington’s role will be to make something happen in both phases of the offense with between 12 and 18 touches per game.

The real battle in New York will be between Jones and rookie Shonn Greene. Both are physical between-the-tackles bruisers who can lower their shoulders to pick up extra yards. As we’ve mentioned before, we aren’t too high on Jones this season. He’s upset with his contract and turns 31 in August.

Meanwhile, Greene signed his rookie contract months ago, and reports out of New York indicate that new head coach Rex Ryan is very happy with his progress to date. Remember, there’s a reason the Jets traded up to the beginning of the third round on Day Two of the draft to snag Greene. The kid can play.

Fantasy Projections: The running back we’ll learn the most about during training camp is Jones. If he’s content, in shape and focused, he should have a productive year. But don’t get caught overpaying for him based on last season’s numbers.

That won’t happen again. Washington is a flex RB with upside, and Greene is the sleeper. Target him in the mid-to-later rounds. He’ll give you the most value.

The Hot Spot: New York (Giants)

The Battle: Wide Receiver

The Contenders: Domenik Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, Ramses Barden

What to expect: With a solid running game, a reliable quarterback, and one of the best offensive lines in football, the wide receiver battle in New York is going to be a good one this summer.

Word on the street is that second-year wideout Mario Manningham has been looking very impressive of late. He could be a dark horse to land a spot in the starting lineup come Week One.

If Manningham fails to win one of the top two spots, it will be because Smith and Hixon put on a better show in August. Smith caught 57 passes for 574 yards last year while Hixon hauled in 43 for 596 yards.

The Giants desperately need a receiving threat in the red zone now that Plaxico Burress is gone, and Hixon has the potential to develop into that kind of player.

Owners should also expect to see some playing time for rookies Nicks and Barden. Both are big, physical receivers who will contend for their share of red zone targets as well.

The problem here is that it may take some time for both guys to develop into capable NFL wide receivers. Those of you who have been reading our fantasy articles this summer know how we feel about rookie wide receivers.

Fantasy Projections: As far as the rookies go, Nicks is worth a late-round pick, but you should let Barden fall to waivers. He is a bit more raw in terms of route-running than Nicks.

As of the moment, no New York wide receiver is worth an early draft pick, but look for Hixon to possibly emerge as the No. 1 WR in the Big Apple. Manningham is currently the sleeper of the group.

 

The Hot Spot: Denver

The Battle: Running Back

The Contenders: Knowshon Moreno, Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Ryan Torain

What to expect: The Broncos used their first overall draft pick (No. 12) on Moreno for a reason. The key to his success will lie in his ability to pass protect.

If he can prove to be an adequate blocker, the Broncos can keep him on the field for all three downs, increasing his fantasy value. Moreno is the type of back who can make plays in both phases of the offense, so he has some good value heading into 2009.

Look for Buckhalter and Jordan to be role players on the Denver offense. Jordan’s size and strength make him an ideal candidate to handle the short-yardage and goal-line workload.

Buckhalter served as a decent complement to Brian Westbrook in Philadelphia over the past few years, so he will likely be used to spell Moreno to keep his legs fresh throughout the season. Remember, Buckhalter has had three major knee surgeries in his eight-year career.

Speaking of knee surgery, Ryan Torain is coming off a rookie campaign that saw him blow out his left knee in Week 10 against the Browns. The possibility exists that he could start the season on the PUP list, so owners are advised to keep him off of your draft boards.

Fantasy Projections: Moreno will be the top dawg in Denver this season and is likely to be drafted some time before the end of round four. If he can get the job done in pass protection, his value will increase.

Jordan should only be considered in the later rounds since he will have an opportunity to score some touchdowns, but don’t count on him for big yardage. Let Buckhalter fall to waivers unless something happens to Moreno. He won’t get enough touches.

Daily Haze: Michael Vick Is Back

Look, I am all about second chances. Most people deserve them. But does Michael Vick deserve a chance to play in the NFL?

He tortured and killed dogs for sport. He provided the money, the dogs, and the setting. He then lied about the whole thing to the commissioner’s face before getting busted by the Feds.

And I still think he deserves a second chance.

Vick is going to get that chance according to Commissioner Roger Goodell yesterday. He will be suspended from live game action the first five weeks of the regular season. He can participate in practices and play in the last two preseason games if a team chooses to sign him.

Not a bad deal for Vick, to be honest.

I really hope Vick turns this experience into something positive for the children who are fans of his and the NFL. I hope I see his face on TV doing pro-animal advertisements. I hope he never messes up again, so that these lessons that can be learned will not be lost.

Here are today’s great reads:

• Wow. That is the first thing that came to mind when I found this handy ideal bye week running back breakdown for fantasy owners. [FFToolbox]
• The Madden Curse continues to plague those players who grace the cover of the latest version. This year’s target: Larry Fitzgerald. [Roto Professor]
• Fantasy owners who want to win this season need to forget about the love they have for their favorite player or team on draft day. [FanHouse]
• Many in the past have utilized the QB-WR from the same team approach with mixed results, but the RB-WR from the same team combo may be the most beneficial. [Football Jabber]

Got a pressing fantasy football question and need an answer now? Or just want to chat about all the recent developments in the sports’ world?

Head over to The Hazean’s fantasy football forums for all that and more. Also remember to check out The Hazean’s fantasy rankings and mock draft database.

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Pittsburgh Steelers: The Future Is Now

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The future is now. Friday, July 31, the Pittsburgh Steelers reported to training camp to prepare for the 2009-10 season.

Already there is a distraction before camp begins, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger deals with charges of sexual assault on a female Harrah’s employee.

But with the distraction, comes focus and coach Mike Tomlin will see to it that the team is focused for the challenges ahead.

“There will be a new 53 man roster. A lot of the faces will be the same. But nothing stays the same in this game,” says Coach Tomlin.

As the Steelers prepare for the challenges, which lie before them, here are a few objectives Steelers fans should watch for, over the course of camp and the preseason.

 

Anchor the Offensive Line

Considered the weak link last season, five offensive linesmen who started in Super Bowl XLIII will return for 2009-10 season.

Roethlisberger was sacked a team high 49 times and the team’s rushing attack ranked 23rd in the NFL, the second lowest since the Steelers joined the AFC in 1970.

Many sports critics believed the line’s demise started with the release of OG Alan Faneca.

If that is the case, someone should explain 2005, 2006, and 2007 when Roethlisberger was sacked 47, 46, and 47 times respectively with Faneca in the lineup.

No, the lynch pin was not the loss of Faneca, but two missing components that supported the Steeler smash-mouth running game, a starting fullback, and a blocking TE.

These two key components supported the running game and protected the quarterback in the passing game.  In the past, it was FB Dan Kreider and TE Mark Bruener.  

Before his release in 2007, Krieder played six seasons using his bruising-style to pave the way for RB Jerome Bettis in the running game.  

Drafted in 1995, TE Mark Bruener, became one of the league’s best blocking tight ends and was elected honorary offensive linesmen by his teammates, before being released in 2003.

Another member of that support group was Matt Cushing TE/FB who played backup to both and was released in 2005.

It was the combination of these three who helped the offensive line establish the running game.

I am not saying that these men need to come back. What I am saying is the Steelers need to consider these prototypes for the sole purpose of anchoring the running game, supporting the offensive line, and protecting the quarterback in the passing game. .

In 2007, Arians gave the starting nod for FB to Carey Davis who has never played in an NFL game, over Kreider because of his ability as a ball carrier and pass catcher.

Davis was supposed to give the offense more flexibility. However, he has contributed little to either the running or passing games, and his blocking was clearly inferior to Kreider’s.

A solution for FB, start TE/FB Sean McHugh instead of Davis. McHugh became a major contributor as a blocker for Parker and Roethlisberger.

A four year letter man at Penn State from 2000-2003, McHugh started at fullback his junior and senior seasons.

As a Detroit Lion in 2006, McHugh played tight end and fullback replacing both TE/FB Casey Simmons and FB Cory Schlesinger.

If Davis is suppose to give the offense more flexibility with his ball-handling and pass catching, let him be the depth at fullback, and in some situations replace McHugh on passing downs.

McHugh along with TE Heath Miller should be able to support the line and the running game (although I am not really sold on Miller as a blocker, but he is better than Matt Spaeth).

 

Re-establish the Running Game

OC Bruce Arians has been criticized for disbanding the run to promote more of the passing game. But is that really true?

Looking at the 2008 season statistically, there were 46 more attempts passing than rushing and three more passing touchdowns. So did he really disband the running game?

Arians had to work with what was given to him. The running game suffered because of the lack of cohesiveness on the line.

With Kendell Simmons lost for the season and Marvel Smith with the back spasm issues, the Steelers had to rebuild the line.

In 2008, the Steelers’ running game recorded 460 rushing attempts/1,690 yards, 16 TDs and averaged 3.7 yards per carry. This average is the lowest since 2003, when they averaged 3.3 yards per carry.

Averaging just under 106 yards per game, the running game ranked 23rd in the NFL last season.

With an experienced line, and possibly the addition of McHugh at FB, the Steelers would be poised for a more productive running attack.

After suffering injuries to shoulder and knee last year, is RB Willie Parker in the downside of his career?

In 2006, Parker rushed for 1,494 yards—13 TDs (4.4 yd/carry); 2007, 1,316 yds—two TDs (4.1); 2008, 791 yds—five TDs (3.8) as a starter.

It’s been reported Parker had a good offseason and feels ready to play.

Even with a healthy Parker, the Steelers are hopeful he will have his speed back.

Speed is fine. Getting him to run the perimeter is fine.

What is missing, however, is that short yardage back, one who can punish defense up the middle, or punch in a touchdown from the red zone—someone who can close a game.

A closer in baseball is a pitcher whose goal is to protect a lead or give his team a chance in the bottom of the ninth, to get some runs to win the game. As a closer, his goal is to keep the opposition from scoring again by putting his team in position to win.

Jerome Bettis role was a closer; one who could shut the door on the opposition by wearing down defenses, eating up clock time, moving the chains, and punching in a touchdown from the one-yard line.  

Bettis was especially crucial late in the fourth quarter. Pound the defense up the middle, shut them down—win the game.

Parker could not prove in these past two years that he is that type of closer.

The 2007 Draft pick Rashard Mendenhall returns to camp after suffering a season–ending shoulder injury during the fourth game of the season, against the Baltimore Ravens.

At training camp, he has to prove he can be productive.

Mendenhall played in all four preseason games last preseason. He carried the ball 54 times for 222 yards (4.1 yd/carry), and one TD.

On the down-side, he fumbled three times in two preseason games, which was attributed to his adjusting to the faster pace of the NFL

Can he prove to be the closer the Steelers so desperately need?

If Mendenhall is put in the position of “the closer,” he must be efficient in short yardage play, especially in the red zone, and most importantly have a very low fumbling percentage.

 

Vulnerable Up the Middle and to the Right

In the Super Bowl, QB Kurt Warner found success in the second half with the short passes, right, left, and up the middle, to all three of his receivers.

The same happened against San Diego and the Colts earlier in the season. 

Late in the season, the secondary had been getting beat on the short pass (right, left, and middle) and with a breakdown in the coverages, the deep ball up the middle caught them by surprise.

In the playoffs against SD, Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles caught deep passes up the middle for 41 and 62 yard TDs.

With McFadden gone to the Arizona Cardinals, it will be up to CB William Gay to step up to the plate.

Gay and McFadden alternated playing time last season, each taking consecutive defensive series. Gay started four games, while McFadden had a broken forearm late in the season.

Gay has successfully defended receivers such as Houshmandzadeh (Cin), Antonio Gates (SD), Wes Welker (NE), and Roy Williams (DAL).

The Steelers drafted CB Joe Burnett and Keenan Lewis for possible depth at this position.

 

Special Teams

During the offseason, the Steelers were busy resigning and retaining key playmakers that made up the 2008 special teams’ unit such as Anthony Madison, Keyaron Fox, Andre Frazier, and Patrick Bailey.

A huge boost for the kicking team will be the return of punter Daniel Sepulveda, who has recovered from a torn ACL, and kicker Jeff Reed returning for his eighth season.

Although the Steelers finished 2008 as the AFC’s No. 1 special teams’ kick return defense, and No. 4 in punt defense, based on yards per return, there is need for much improvement on the return team.

Ranked 29th in the league on kick returns, and No. 31 on punts last year, expectations are high to see an improvement in the return game.

This year’s rookie class provided the Steelers with two return specialists, WR Mike Wallace (kick-off) and CB Joe Burnett (punt returns).

Although Wallace is expected to fill the need for wide receiver, he could also be the long-sought kickoff return that has eluded the Steelers for such a long time.

CB Joe Burnett is the reputation of being a defensive playmaker, an athletic cornerback who intercepted 16 passes and also returned five kicks—three punts and two kickoffs—for touchdowns in four seasons at Central Florida.

Nicknamed Smokin’ Joe, Burnett will get his chance to help improve the kick and punt return units.

Another offseason acquisition as a return specialist is two-year veteran RB Stefan Logan. He is competing for a spot as a returner, and has impressed the organization with agility similar to San Diego Charger RB Darren Sproles.

Who to watch out for this training camp…

LB Lawrence Timmons

RB Rashard Mendenhall

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RB Willie Parker

CB William Gay

CB Joe Burnett

WR Mike Wallace

Training Camp Questions: NFC East

Training Camp Questions: NFC North

Training Camp Questions: NFC South

2009 Training Camp Battles – Defense and Special Teams

Eagles Name McDermott Head Man on Defense

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