10 Reasons Why The Redskins Are Going To The Super Bowl

Well, it must be deep in the offseason, because I am positive that this is the year that the Washington Redskins (ya, you heard right) go to the Super Bowl. Crazy talk you say? Maybe. But here’s a list of undeniable reasons why the Redskins will be polishing a Lombardi Trophy this February.

1.) The Redskins were already ranked the fourth best defense in the league, but now they got the best available D lineman (Haynesworth), the best available corner (Deangelo Hall), and the best defensive rookie in the draft (Orakpo). This defense that was already good just got younger AND better.

2.) The Redskins are going into the season with the same offensive strategy as they did last year. The last time that happened (10 years ago) the Redskins went to a Division Championship.

3.) Jason Campbell will have the same offensive scheme as he did last year. This has only happened once in Campbell’s entire football career, the last time it happened, his team (Auburn) had an undefeated season.

4.) The Redskins actually have a punter, Hunter Smith from the Colts, who can punt more than 10 yards.

5.) Chris Cooley is a beast… what more can I say?

6.) The Redskins drafted the two top WR’s in the 2008 draft. Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly are both coming into their second year (usually considered a breakout year for rookie WR’s) fully healthy, unlike last year. This will allow Jason to throw deep more, and open up guys like Moss and Cooley.

7.) Clinton Portis has never had a season with less than 1,200 yards (save the season he was hurt) and can be considered the most consistent back in the league.

8.) Jim Zorn is coming into his second year as coach. His first year was spent mainly learning his team and instilling his offense, which took the league by storm midway through the year. This year he can focus soley on developing his team in his West Coast system.

9.) The Redskins have the second easiest schedule in the league, playing many teams in rebuilding stages such as the Lions, Rams, and Chiefs.

10.) Dan Snyder, the Redskins owner, did NOT spend millions of dollars for Brett Favre! Hip Hip! Hooray!

There are many other reasons why the Redskins will go to the Super Bowl. But there is simply not enough time to explain them all. Just remember though, this year IS the year!

Oakland Raiders Training Camp: Media Notes For Day One

As we move into Day Two of Raiders training camp, the intensity is as hot as the turf. Head coach Tom Cable has declared two-a-day practices for the first four days of camp, one in mid-afternoon when the heat simmers off the grass.

“[The players] need to be in the heat and the sun,” Cable told the media after Wednesday’s endeavors. “I think it hardens you.”

In response to interrogations by media personnel about how this sort of intensity is settling in to more veteran players like Zach Miller, who is perhaps more accustomed to the feel of Kiffin’s practices, Miller responded, “I think [Cable] brings the right attitude, kind of an old school feel where we’re going to out-work other teams and we’re going to make sure that we grind it out.”

Today will be the first time the whole team will practice together since contracts were signed in June. With JaMarcus Russell still the No. 1 pick for starting QB and Darrius Heyward-Bay inking a contract this morning, the offense is solidifying itself and all that needs to be done now is for the guys to learn how to work together.

This shouldn’t be terribly difficult considering the amount of veterans on the team. In addition, this is Russell’s second year and with his offseason moves of motivating the offense into extra training sessions he is clearly amplifying his voice, not just as a signal caller, but as a team leader.

After the four days are up, the team will suit up in pads and prepare for their Aug. 8 performance at the Coliseum in front of Raider Nation. The spectacle will include Silver and Black jerseys colliding with each other, but at the same time, feeling each other out and learning how to work as a team.

Certainly four days of roughing it will accomplish that.

“They need to go through the struggles of camp and the hard work and the ups-and-downs that come with it and help work each other through it,” Cable said.

Should the Dallas Cowboys Sign Michael Vick?

[Richard spends five minutes laughing, regains composure, sighs and returns to the keyboard]

 

Uh, no.

 

Absolutely, 100 percent not.

 

To paraphrase a popular 1960s song (whose title I forget, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t the Rolling Stones), “No no no no no no no no no no no!”

 

If I were speaking Mandarin Chinese, I’d say: Bù!

 

If I were speaking Russian: Нет!

 

And if I were speaking Hebrew: !לא

 

Yes, I know Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is into trying to take decrepit players and remodel and redesign them in his own image and turn them into perennial Pro Bowlers and Mr. Big D in hopes of someday inducting them into the Ring of Honor, but I hope he passes on Michael Vick.

 

Somewhere there’s an NFL team that will take a gamble and sign Vick to the veterans’ minimum and give him a chance to recreate his left-chinstrap-buckle-dangling, throw-the-ball-100-yards while dancing around defenders. New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who acquired troubled receiver Randy Moss a few years ago, has praised Vick’s athleticism.

 

I just hope the team Vick ends up with isn’t the Cowboys.

 

And I’m pretty certain it won’t be the Cleveland Browns.* Would the famed Dawg Pound really accept Vick and forgive him?

 

A friend who works as a reporter in Texas says Jerry Jones isn’t interested in Vick. I hope that’s the case; perhaps after getting burned on Adam “Please Don’t Call Me Pac-Man” Jones, Jerry Jones is employing the “once bitten, twice shy” approach.

 

Not to say Vick will try to fight bodyguards or get into more trouble with police, but Dallas’ locker room chemistry was one of the reasons for its problems last year. I don’t see how Vick will help things out.

 

I could be wrong. That does happen, occasionally.

 

We recall the last time Jones brought a disgraced quarterback to the Cowboys was Ryan Leaf. Granted, Leaf didn’t pull any “Don’t [EXPLETIVE]-ing talk to me! Knock it off! All right?!” embarrassments while with the Cowboys, but he wasn’t able to take up the mantle that had been cast on the ground since the release and retirement of Troy Aikman. Granted, part of that was an injured wrist that never seemed to heal.

 

Still, considering Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee (who’s supposed to be really good) and another free agent are in training camp, why would Dallas need another quarterback?

 

I know, I know: Kitna’s there for veteran insurance and is in the twilight of his not-great-but-not-bad career while McGee no doubt is learning the game in case Romo ends up becoming one of those not-quite stellar quarterbacks.

 

So far, the Cowboys seem pretty impressed with McGee, a quarterback largely overlooked by other teams because he went to Texas A&M, a school that traditionally runs the ball.**

 

IF the Cowboys should choose to risk their nose being wide open (as they say in casinos to describe a sucker who gambles away a fortune) by signing Vick, it would make more sense for the Cowboys to sign Vick as a Kordell “Slash” Stewart” wide receiver…you know, someone who’s fast, can catch passes, and who’s a threat to also throw.

 

Here’s why: Vick has always come across to me as someone whose NFL success stems more from being a great runner with a rocket arm than a great pure quarterback. He’s also six feet tall, short for a quarterback. I can think of four stature-challenged men who’ve had successful NFL careers: Doug Flutie (5’9”), Fran Tarkenton (5’10”), and both Joe Theismann and Drew Brees (6’0”).

 

But as I’ve watched Vick, I’ve never been very impressed with his ability to read defenses; I seem to remember in the NFC championship game [YEAR] against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Eagles thwarted Vick by laying off blitzes and making him throw the ball instead of trying to make something happen on the go.

 

My understanding is Vick could be playing in the NFL by October. As long as he keeps a low profile and doesn’t shoot himself in the proverbial foot, and as long as he can still run and throw and make things happen, someone will take a chance on him.

 

* Truth be told, I have lots of admiration for the Cleveland Browns. Their fans will show up and cheer for the team regardless of the weather and how good or poorly the team’s playing. If there’s one team I’d love to see win a Super Bowl, it’s Cleveland.

 

** I’ll never forget watching the ESPN movie The Junction Boys, about when legendary Alabama head coach Paul “Bear” Bryant took over the reins at Texas A&M early in his career.A quarterback tried to get out of practice with a sore arm, only to be told that since the Aggies would throw the ball maybe “twice in a decade”, having a sore arm wasn’t a sufficient excuse. Granted, according to Junction Boy and future Alabama head coach Gene Stallings, the movie had some fiction in it, but I found the line to be funny all the same.

The Los Angeles Stars: A Look into the Future

Los Angeles has wanted a football team for a very long time. Well I say we give them one and make them an NFL expansion team. This year would be a great time for them to be starting up.

They could have there expansion draft, get some past their prime players and then dive into the free agency pool.

Let’s just take a look at some of the possibilities that could happen if they would have been allowed to join this year as a team.

 

Quarterback

Target No. 1: Michael Vick

Think of how great this would be for him. New team, new town, new beginning, and he could help get this team rolling right from the get-go.

Plus he might even get himself a fair contract seeing as how he would be one of their best players. I mean come on, let’s not forget after all this is an expansion team.

Target No. 2: Brett Favre

Brett Favre would have already been back and signed a deal if Los Angeles had come knocking. They could tell him that Mike is the starter and all they need him for is to back him up and help them in certain situations.

He wouldn’t have to worry about not being able to finish the season and, like Vick, would probably get at least a decent contract.

Target No. 3: J.P. Losman or Rex Grossman

Both struggled a bit with their old teams and are now looking for new homes and places to get restarted. Both would bring something different to the table and are fairly young, but still have enough experience.

They wouldn’t be called upon right away, and in fact would only have to be No. 3 on the depth chart. They probably wouldn’t even see much of the field unless Vick didn’t work out and Favre got hurt.

Maybe not the best starters, but who wouldn’t want one of these guys for third stringers?

Running Back

Target No. 1: Edgerrin James

Yes he’s old, yes he’s past his prime, yes they can do better and they will. But let’s be honest, with Mike in the backfield with him, how much will he do anyways? Plus with the other running backs on this depth chart he’ll have to share anyways.

He still has some juice in him and would be a great mentor for a new guy coming in from the draft in 2010.

Target No. 2: DeShaun Foster

Had three pretty solid seasons with the Panthers, but never got over 1,000 yards. Well no worries, he won’t be asked to be a 1,000 yard rusher. Eight-hundred yards would be just fine for the role he would play.

He’s starting to get up in running back age (29), but he definitely still has some productive years left.

Target No. 3: Tatum Bell

Career average of five yards per carry. Not to mention last year his average was 5.7. He was at one point a 1,000 yard rusher, but then got sent to the Lions. He still has a couple of 1,000 yard seasons in him and with Foster and James he wouldn’t have to carry the whole load.

Target No. 4: P.J. Daniels

He would simply be added for his size, all the others are fast outside runners. All the other power runners are to far up in age. He wouldn’t see the field that much.

 

Wide Receiver

Target No. 1: Plaxico Burress

Sure he might be suspended from the NFL for a while, but in this case with a new team you definitely have to take a chance on him. He’s by far the best receiver that’s a free agent and he would help Vick and Favre look good in the passing game.

Some will say he’s a troublemaker, but with an expansion team you have to take a chance and hope he can follow the rules. Plus they will have a good amount of money, give him bonuses for being good.  

Target No. 2: D.J. Hackett

He’s big at 6’2″ and he can spread the field. Would be a great compliment to Burress on the other side of the field. He’s still young and this would be a good place for him to get his career going.

Target No. 3: Matt Jones

Want to talk about huge? 6’6″ and he can out jump anyone for a ball. You add him to the mix with Burress and Hackett and this receiver core is already scary.

Yes, maybe another troublemaker, but he went to classes and got out of them just fine. He’s not really a troublemaker, more of a head case anyways, and just has to pass the drug tests.

Target No. 4: Marvin Harrison

Veteran experience and some one there to help guide Jones and Burress. Just what this team needs, he is a champion and a model of how to act on and off the field. He would definitely help this team and be a leader of it.

He could also always step in and play at times if one of the other three were to get into trouble. He only makes this receiving core that much more scary.

 

Tight End

Target No. 1: Owen Daniels

Might get him and might not but at least offer him something. He is a restricted free agent, but this team won’t be shelling out that much money so they can give him a nice offer.

He would be a great starting TE for any team and would only make this team that much better.

Target No. 2: Bubba Franks

Was really good with the Packers in my opinion and he’s comfortable with Favre. It would be a great reunion for them and he’s got great veteran experience. Most of the TEs will probably be young so his veteran leadership will be needed.

Target No. 3: Marcus Pollard

He’s bounced around from team to team, but this would be a nice place to end his career as a backup. He’s a decent blocking and catching TE who is friends with Harrison from his Colts days.

 

Offensive Line

Guard: James Blair, Jason Fabini, Lennie Friedman, Seth McKinney, Terrence Metcalf, Chris Naeole, Grey Ruegamer, Charles Spencer

All eight of them would probably be signed at least at the beginning. They are the only guards available and having four deep on both sides would not hurt any.

Tackle: Jason Whittle, Marc Colombo, Damane Duckett, Wayne Gandy, Kwame Harris, Jonas Jennings, Levi Jones, Patrick McCoy

Four deep at tackle and guard can only be a very good thing for this team. Lots of difference between these guys. There experience ranges all the way from rookie to 16 seasons or something.

Center: Tom Nalen, Brennen Carvalho, Melvin Fowler

Tom would have the veteran experience and he could help develop Brennen who’s only going into his third season.

 

Defensive Line

Defensive End: Vonnie Holliday, Orpheus Roye, James Wyche, Jerome McDougle, Corey Mace, Brian Johnston

Vonnie, Orpheus, and Jerome would all bring veteran experience and two championships between the three of them. Both Jerome and Orpheus have played for the two best defenses and could really help the young guys.

James, Corey, and Brian are all young and needing help. The veteran leadership and push of the other three veterans would help them improve and become better players.

Defensive Tackle: James Reed, Kenny Smith, Ellis Wyms, Kenderick Allen

Wyms and Allen both come from the Vikings and have played together before which helps. James has loads of experience and veteran leadership. This line will probably be a little old, but don’t overlook them they have some great talent.

 

Outside Linebacker

Targets: Derrick Brooks, Willie McGinest, Marcus Washington, Pierre Woods, Rufus Alexander, Junior Seau

Brooks, McGinest, and Washington all at one time were considered the best at what they did. Now past there prime, they won’t be every down linebackers but they will contribute, especially Washington. 

Woods has some great experience from playing with the Patriots and would do fine in a starting role. Alexander is young and wouldn’t be quite ready but with the guidance of the first three he would really come along.

Washington and Woods would most likely be the starters.

 

Middle Linebacker

Targets: Napoleon Harris, Derek Smith, Nate Webster, Matt Wilhelm, Rosevelt Colvin

Harris would probably be the starter of the group, with Webster seeing significant playing time. Smith has veteran experience and Wilhelm has youth and experience.

Defensive Back

Targets: Ty Law, Chris McAlister, Ricky Manning, Patrick Surtain, Tyron Poole, Adam “pacman” Jones

Had to make sure to highlight Pacman. This team would thrive with him at the CB position and being the return man. Him and Ricky would probably be the starters.

Ty Law, McAlister, Surtain, and Poole were all once great and if not forced to play a lot would really help. Especially at the safety position where they could be moved if needed.

Pacman is another one of those troublemakers, but as long as he stays under control(it would be hard I know.) then they are set. There is no other player available near his talent level.

Safety: Will Demps, Lawyer Milloy, Will Allen

A weak position on the team. Lawyer was a beast in his prime, but he’s way past that now. Demps and Allen are decent, but some of the cornerbacks like McAlister or Surtain might need to be moved back here to help out.

Kicker: Matt Stover

He’s old but he can still get it done for them.

Punter: Zac Atterberry

Was a rookie last year and was cut by a team that already had a punter. Nothing special but he gets the job done and he’s young so there’s room to improve and he can stick around a long time.

Return Man: Pacman Jones, Dante Hall

Pacman is one of the best returners in the league when behaving. Hall is the one who had the four TD returns in one season and was a beast for a while. He’ll do for now.

 

Offensive Scheme

West Coast Offense, with loads of Option plays and maybe some Wildcat to highlight Michael Vick

 

Defensive Scheme

3-4: The linebackers are the best part of the defense in my opinion even though most of it is old. The 3-4 would work the best because that’s what the majority are used to anyways.

 

Projected Record

7-9 which is not too bad for a new team, with all new players. You can’t forget that besides the players they get out of free agency, they also have the expansion draft.

 

2010 draft choice

Having a 7-9 record puts them at the projected 10th spot so we’ll just say that’s where they are.

Round One: Adam Ulatoski, OT, Texas

Round Two: Darrell Stuckey, S, Kansas

Round Three: Will Barker, OT, Virginia

Round Four: Dan Williams, DT, Tennesee

Round Five: Steve Brown, LB, Michigan

Round Six: Austin Spitler, LB, Ohio State

Round Seven: Jake Seitz, C, UAB

 

 

Fantasy Football Profile: Marion Barber III

Marion the Barbarian, MB3, Mr. Barber—whatever you want to call him, the guy is one of the toughest running RBs in the league. 

His stiff arm is a thing of beauty.  His running style can work against him though as he was limited in the second half last year.  He will share the workload this year with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. 

Jones brings the speed element and Choice is another good change of pace back that excelled at the end of last season.  Barber will be used early to establish the run, in short yardage situations, and to close out games. 

That’s when he’s at his best.  Having a stable of good, young RBs is great for an NFL team, but it does hinder their fantasy value.  He is great at catching the ball out of the backfield, which does help. 

Barber is still a good RB1 and a great RB2.  He just won’t go in the top ten like he has in the past couple of years.

Playing in the NFC East makes Barber’s schedule difficult.  However, he does face Denver and Kansas City in Weeks 4 & 5, as well as Oakland in Week 12.  His fantasy playoffs schedule is San Diego, New Orleans, and Washington.  He is fortunate to play the Eagles in Week 17. 

I expect a big year from Barber with 1,200 total yards, 40 receptions, and 12 TDs.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .

Did Wade Say Tougher or Easier?

It sounded to me like the focus was on tougher, but when I heard that the players were not allowed to hit one another, it was at that moment that I began to realize that Wade and Jerry were throwing the usual BS at us.

That is, they were trying to get the fans to calm down, stop listening to everyone else, and listen only to them. Believe that everything is A-OK down in Big D; Jerry Jones and his sock puppet have everything under control.

But it sounds to me like the zoo is still run by the same idiot who needs to be locked away in a cage, with his side show freak head coach, if that isn’t worse. Then I can tell you that the loss of T.O. and other key players have already doomed this team in 09, but daddy Jerry says it’s all right kids, the rides are safe and nothing is going to harm you!

Give me a break, believing that is the same as someone telling you they have desert land they can sell you for very cheap. Don’t believe it ’cause I certainly don’t.

Brett Favre Staying Retired: Why The End of the Saga Is Finished For Good

When Brett Favre retired last winter, he said without a doubt that his football career is over in an interview with ESPN. Frankly, not many were surprised, nor did they care about the headline throughout the sports world of Favre’s retirement again.

The general consensus was that Favre would come back to the NFL just around training camp when he is ready, and find a home that was open to him.

For months, the Brett Favre saga continued, with the Minnesota Vikings looking like they were going to give him a chance to play football once again.

After multiple tests with medical teams, workouts in Mississippi, and examining his past injuries in ’08, Brett Favre fooled many by deciding to stay retired as he had said earlier in the year.

Favre called it “the toughest decision I have made in my life.”

After the news broke, the Minnesota Vikings moved on, while many fans are upset with Favre for dragging out the retirement, and hanging the team out to dry.

Is it a shocker that Favre is staying retired? Did anybody believe he would go by his word and stay retired?

Even with Favre staying retired, it is still felt he is not done playing football, and a comeback in the 2010 season looks likely.

Though I would tend to agree, but what has to be considered is that Favre might be done for good in the National Football League. Of course many will have their doubts, asking what would stop Favre from returning next season?

Yet, it might seem harder than it looks. After all, Brett Favre reaches the age of 40 in early October.

Would any of the franchises who didn’t show interest this offseason (about 31 of them) really sign a 40 year quarterback who hadn’t played for a full season?

I sure wouldn’t, and frankly, I don’t know any team that would make the move.

Brett Favre should get some praise on one hand, for finally realizing that it was time to hang up the cleats. After all, he dealt with the wear and tear of the shoulder at the end of the 2008 season.

Favre went through with a procedure to fix the shoulder, and practiced within his home-town of Mississippi to prepare.

However, at the end of the day, Favre finally learned to say no. He finally realized he wouldn’t be able to play at the same dominant level he once able to at a younger age.

Even staying in shape at 39 years of age, Favre could have suffered an injury during the season. Sure he would play through it, as he is Brett Favre, the comeback kid as many still call him.

But how much would it have affected the Vikings, who are a contending team in the NFC, with or without Favre?

We know that Favre will start off on the right path, yet over a course of 16 game season, the body cannot handle the pressure it would be taking.

It is hard to imagine that Brett Favre will never be in the National Football League again. To many, it shall be difficult to not see him back in 2010.

The reality is though, this might just happen.

No-one will believe Favre is done until it happens, so yes, it will be hard to adjust to.

But the fan must think that the road is near. The era of Brett Favre, the saga that he has brought upon himself in the NFL is coming to a close, one that is happening in 2009.

 

Matt Miselis is a writer for BleacherReport.com. He is also writes a column on the Baltimore Ravens starting in September for new website, FanHuddle.com

 

The Minnesota Vikings Shouldn’t Burn the Brett Favre Bridge Yet

Driving, e-mails to your boss, and quarterback decisions: It’s best to steer clear of all three when angry.

Right now, the Minnesota Vikings have plenty of reasons to be angry.

They’ve been jilted at the altar by The Indecider himself. They’ve got too little quarterback talent on the depth chart and too many purple No. 4 jerseys on backorder. They just spent an entire summer making locker room-wrecking overtures, only to become the crash test dummies for the newest phrase in Brett Favre’s vocabulary: “No more.”

And the fans? If you stick your head out the window in Minneapolis, that sound you’ll hear reverberating through the streets is the cacaphony of slammed doors that the Vikings faithful had propped wide open in welcome.

In a few fleeting ticks of the clock, the local barometer on Favre has swung from blissful to bitter.

Star Tribune blogger Seth Stohs declared, “The second that training camp starts on Friday should be the exact moment that Vikings leadership should delete Favre’s number from their phones.”

Columnist Jim Souhan opined, “Favre should be ashamed of himself for toying with an entire organization.”

And while Favre hinted at the possibility that he’ll consider a midseason return (“If someone calls Nov. 1, who knows?”), Brad Childress proclaimed, “There’s not a chance from my standpoint. I’m going forward with the guys that we have.”

Pump the brakes for a minute, Chilly.

You’re still steamed about the Favre situation, no doubt. After waiting on him all summer, you want to sound firm and decisive to remind everyone who’s in control. And you need to throw a some support behind the guys whose jobs have been hanging in limbo for months.

But before you say anything you can’t take back about what will and won’t happen, step back and take stock of the situation.

You’re about to hold a quarterback competition between a journeyman backup and a project who has bounced between the starting role and the bench three times in the past two seasons.

You’ve got a stacked defense and a talented offense with a great big doughnut hole under center.

You didn’t get any closer to a solution this week. “The guys you have” didn’t get any better.

The difference between the 10-6 squad that got bounced from the opening round of the playoffs at home in January and the one taking the field in training camp this week is Sage Rosenfels, a handful of rookies, and a new special teams coordinator.

So like I said, let’s not rule anything out just yet.

Believe me, I’m as irked about Favre as the next red-blooded Minnesotan. I saw him as a clear upgrade at the position. I thought he gave the Vikings the best chance to win.

When his arm isn’t falling off, he’s still a better passer than Jackson or Rosenfels.

When he’s healthy and under control—as was did for the first two-thirds of last season—he’s still a quality quarterback in a league in which quality quarterbacks are awfully hard to find.

Here’s the thing: If that’s true today, it’ll probably be true on Nov. 1, too.

Of course, if the Vikes storm out of the gate 6-1, with T-Jack or Rosenfels looking sharp all the way, this will be a moot point. Nothing would put Favre in the past faster than a fast start.

But what if Minnesota stumbles early? What if they get hammered at home by Green Bay in Week Four? What if the quarterback situation starts messy and gets messier?

What if they’re 4-3 as October winds down? What if they’re 3-4?

At that point, it might be handy to have Favre waiting in the wings.

There are issues of pride, loyalty, and control at play here. There are hurt feelings and bruised egos. None of those things are especially helpful in making sound football decisions.

Brett Favre was a sound football decision on Tuesday. Unless Jackson and Rosenfels make leaps and bounds, he’ll be a sound football decision in two or three months.

If the Vikings need him at that point, Brad Childress needs to pick up the phone.

Unless he deleted the number, that is.

 

Follow Vikings posts and updates on Twitter: MarinoEccher.

Developing Fantasy Football Strategy For The Numerically Challenged

As a fourteen year player in an extremely competitive fantasy football league, I feel like I know a little something about the addiction…ahem, game.

As a two-time champion of this extremely competitive league (in 2001 and 2004, no-one has achieved back-to-back glory…yet), I believe there are plenty of fantasy football nuts who might benefit from my guru wisdom. 

And I have plenty of it.

Unfortunately for myself, I’ve failed to listen to my own good advice from those days when I was a winner.  Now I’ve fallen into poor drafting habits like taking Romo in the third round last year, or not waiting until the last two rounds to get my defense and kicker. 

But maybe there is an old strategy I once used back in 2004 that deserves a little dusting off, a revival of sorts.

My problem is that I like to change things, keep them fresh and different.  But that pursuit doesn’t always pay in the end.  So I’m going to share a little “English-major-made-up” math for you.  By all means I welcome the engineers and math teachers among the Bleacher Report ranks to skewer at will. 

But it did work the only year I used it.

Before I start crunching numbers, let me confess that this method took me a lot of time.  Still, if one wants to win a competitive fantasy football league, then time investment (plus a little luck) is a necessity.

I believe in playing the law of averages.  Even though the NFL surprises us week in and week out, consistency is what wins.  Consistency becomes predictable effectiveness in the law of averages.  No plan is flawless, but playing the averages can generate consistency.

When making line-up decisions week in and week out, most of us follow a mixture of sticking with our studs and playing the match-ups, but I say follow the math.

Here’s how:

Let’s say you have to start 2 RB, 2 WR and a FLEX RB/WR…

First evaluate all of your RB’s based on recent performance versus next match-up.  Then you will do the same with all of your WR’s.

Example: Let’s say that you have Ronnie Brown, Brian Westbrook, Jonathan Stewart, and Jamal Lewis as RB’s and Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Wes Welker, and Mark Clayton as WR’s.

1. Start with Ronnie Brown and average his fantasy points from the previous three weeks, let’s say he got you 14pts in week 1, 27pts week 2, and 20 pts week 3—that is an average of 20.3 points over a three week span.

2. Next look at his opponent, and let’s say it is the Buffalo Bills.  You look back and see that the Bills played St. Louis, New Orleans, and the NY Jets over the past three weeks. 

3. Look up the RB’s of the Rams, the Saints, and the Jets and find out the fantasy points that were given up to them by the Bills rush defense.  A little finagling might be necessary because it will be simple to just take Steven Jackson’s points as enough since he is the lone guy, but for the Saints you might have to average Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas together to give you an idea of the average RB points given up that week, etc.

4. Now we’ll imagine that you ended up with the Bills giving up 33 pts to Steven Jackson, 24.7 avg to Bush/Thomas, and 16.4 to Thomas Jones/Shonn Greene.  Average the three and you get 24.7 average RB points given up by the Bills over the past three weeks.

5. Now add Ronnie Brown’s average to the average of points given up by the Bills and divide by 2 to get: 22.5 average likely RB fantasy points for this match-up.

6. Repeat the process for the rest of your RB’s and WR’s.

7. Now let’s imagine you get the following results for your players/match-ups:

RB’s
Ronnie Brown—22.5

Brian Westbrook—25.2

Jonathan Stewart—15.7

Jamal Lewis—21

WR’s

Terrell Owens—13.3

Roy Williams—27.1

Wes Welker—23.4

Mark Clayton—18.8

 

Okay, the results are clear that the law of averages suggest you start Ronnie Brown and Brian Westbrook at RB and Roy Williams and Wes Welker at WR, and Jamal Lewis has the highest rating as your flex option.

It takes a little time to crunch the numbers, but you do get a clear picture of the averages at play when finished.

The method is not without drawbacks, the main one being that in fantasy games we know that our gut can have an overpowering influence on any statistical analysis.  But there are some other things to consider… 

1. This strategy has amazing time-suck capabilities.

2. This strategy works only in the here and now.  It’s not to be used to look back to previous seasons.  Therefore, it really only becomes viable beginning with week 4 of the NFL season.

3. The better the statistical tracking of the site you have your league set up on, the easier the strategy is to use.  Not all sites are so deep.

4. You have to remember to skip BYE weeks when looking back.

5. Offensive schemes and teams that “spread the ball around” can skew numbers.

6. Sometimes the law of averages just doesn’t mean squat.

At any rate, I vow to go back to some old tried and tested tactics during our upcoming draft (Wait for a QB Markus!  Even though no one is keeping Tom Brady and he’ll likely be there at your fourth pick, Wait! Wait! Wait!). 

And on to the season, if my team stumbles out of the gate like it has of late, I will break out Winestone’s Law of Fantasy Averages and hopefully get that third title.

***I’m sure there is a spreadsheet formula for this.  I’ve just been too lazy to go there***

Playing Football Under The Radar: Cleveland Browns TE Steve Heiden

Written by Daniel Wolf

Article originally posted on Dawg Scooper: An Unofficial Cleveland Browns News Source

Before Kellen Winslow there was Steve Heiden. Now that Winslow is gone, there is once again Heiden to take over the tight end position.

Even though new coach Eric Mangini brought in another veteran tight end in former Buffalo Bill Robert Royal, the starting tight end position is Heiden’s goal once more.

Heiden, Martin Rucker and Royal will look to battle it out in training camp.

Heiden was drafted in 1999 by the San Diego Chargers in the third round pick, at No. 69. After hardly seeing any playing time for the Chargers, he was then traded to the Browns in 2002.

He then slowly started to work himself into the Browns starting lineup before getting an ankle injury in 2003 that took him out of the last seven games of the season.

The year following, the Browns used their high draft pick on Winslow, and everyone knows that story. Winslow got hurt at the beginning of the 2004 season while trying to recover an onside kick against the Dallas Cowboys.

Then in 2004, with Winslow hurt, Heiden started thirteen games and broke out.

Heiden once again stepped into the starter role in 2005, due to Winslow’s bike accident, and gave the Browns great leadership, blocking ability and solid pass catching skills.

The next few years (2006-’08) saw a decrease in production from Heiden statistically because of Winslow’s pass catching abilities, but Heiden was still brought in to do the blocking and dirty work, which he never complained about.

Heiden has fully recovered from his 2008 injury and it has been reported that he his ready for training camp.

Now that Winslow is gone, the starting tight end job is Heiden’s for the taking. He may not be as dynamic as most other tight ends in the league, because Heiden is more the silent type.

Silent, but deadly.

No matter who becomes the starter Heiden will always be a class act who is the definitive team player, and look for him to once again be the model of consistency for the Browns in 2009.

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