August 2009 News

NFL Preseason Week Three Review: Part Two

Published: August 31, 2009

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Ravens 17, Panthers 13

Joe Flacco showed a little of the game he had last year with a 247 yard, one touchdown performance, but it was Ray Rice’s eight catches for 67 yards that stood out. Unfortunately, so did his 10 carries for 32 yards which weren’t all that scintillating. Willis McGahee keeps hanging around and had a touchdown to go with his six carries for 16 yards. Jalen Parmele looked outstanding with his four carries for 68 yards but it’s hard to know where he’ll fit in here.

The two players who stood out to me for the Panthers were rookie running back Mike Goodson and Muhsin Muhammad. Goodson has had an outstanding preseason and if second year running back Jonathan Stewert can’t stay healthy, Goodson will get a shot and produce. Muhammad is a guy who is often overlooked because of his age, but there’s nobody else worth looking at in this wide receiver corps not named Steve Smith. Muhammad plays well and looks good for his age, continuing to defy his critics.

 

Jets 27, Giants 25 

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez looked much more comfortable against a solid Giants defense than he did against the Ravens. It’s not a shock—this is how he developed at USC last season. The play everyone has been talking about took place when Sanchez saw the Giants blitzing, scrambled out of the pocket and connected with Chansi Stuckey on a 31 yard pass—all while three defenders were breathing down his neck. Stuckey turned it into a TD and Sanchez took a step forward in his development.

Meanwhile, Thomas Jones is looking rough out there, especially next to Leon Washington. I thought Jones had another season left in him. That may not be the case and Shonn Greene—when he returns and is healthy—might steal his job by the end of 2009.

On the other side of the field, the Giants really could use some wide receiver help, with just about every player thrown to dropping at least one pass. Steve Smith dropped an easy touchdown. Mario Manningham dropped several. On the plus side, David Carr found rookie Hakeem Nicks for a pair of touchdowns and you can’t imagine seeing Nicks with the second stringers again this preseason. Eli Manning could use the help, after all.

 

49ers 20, Cowboys 13

The story of the weekend was injured wide receiver Roy Williams, who sat out with a shoulder injury which I believe happened when he leapt to catch a ball and ran into the low-hanging video board. Regardless, quarterback Tony Romo played well overall but struggled a bit, adding an interception to his 11/17, 125-yard effort. He could use more reps to get his timing down with his top wide receiver, so the Cowboys could use Williams back sooner than later. The only other note was Tashard Choice stood out with the backups, compiling 55 yards on eight carries.

The 49ers continue to improve overall, though Shaun Hill has a ways to go before he’s really solid at the quarterback spot. Rookie Nate Davis is someone I still say could be the future of the franchise and he looked very good, completing 10/15 for 132 yards. Davis also has some way to go before being ready for prime time, but could be an interesting developing player.

We’ve been talking about Glen Coffee at running back, but don’t forget fellow rookie Kory Sheets. Sheets looked solid with 11 carries for 42 yards a pair of touchdowns. The Niners will run a ton with Gore and likely Coffee. If Sheets continues to play hard, he’ll find a way to get a few carries in there and I think produce. If someone gets hurt, Sheets will get those carries.

 

Falcons 27, Chargers 24

Both teams looked ready for the season and the Chargers especially look like the far-and-away favorites to win the AFC West. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw for a nice 185 yards and led scoring drives on two of his three possessions.  Rookie Gartrell Johnson put together a nice 77 total yards and journeyman Michael Bennett—of all people—had over 100 total yards, including three catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. 

LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates watched from the sidelines but that didn’t hurt this offense one bit.

On the other side of the field, second year quarterback Matt Ryan is still looking like he just picked up from where he left off last season. His 14/20, 140-yard effort included a 12-yard touchdown toss to Brian Finneran.

Running back Michael Turner also looked rock solid with 47 yards on 12 carries. The only downside was running back Jerious Norwood’s knee injury, though that is believed to be day-to-day and not serious, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

 

Seahawks 14, Chiefs 10

It just goes from bad to even more bad with the Chiefs. Sure, they lost the game, but the bigger loss might be quarterback Matt Cassel. Cassel was lost almost right away, dragged down by Defensive Tackle Brandon Mebane from behind.

Profootballtalk.com and Yahoo Sports both report Cassel has a MCL injury and might miss Week One. Of course, the Chiefs aren’t forthcoming with the injury information but that’s not shocking—it’s another ‘New England satellite franchise’ so what do we expect? They’re like Starbucks—they are everywhere.

Matt Hasselbeck looked good for the Seahawks, completing 19/25 for 216 yards and two touchdowns, one to second year tight end John Carlson (5-68-1) and one to new addition TJ Houshmandzadeh (5-60-1).

With Edgerrin James not yet playing, Julius Jones took the lion’s share of the carries and carried the rock fifteen times for 57 yards. The Seahawks say they will keep using him as the primary back, Edge or not, so until I see different, James’ impact is still an unknown quantity. 

 

Bears 27 Broncos 17

In the Battle of Egos, former Bronco and current Bears quarterback Jay Cutler seems to have one over on his old team. Cutler put together a nice little 15/21, 144-yard performance with a touchdown to Matt Forte to cap it off. Cutler pumped his fist in celebration after that touchdown so, call me crazy, I think he wanted this one bad. Matt Forte looked good in limited action. While his yards per carry was low (2.33 after nine carries for 21 yards), he scored twice, once on the ground and once in the air. He totaled four catches for 11 yards so it could be that Cutler will utilize him more in the pass game than anticipated.

If that’s the case, his fantasy stock might actually manage to rise past Maurice Jones-Drew and challenge Adrian Peterson. Hard to imagine he’ll have 60 catches again, but 40? Not far-fetched. 

Kyle Orton (12/16, 96 yards) didn’t look bad—he just didn’t look like Cutler. But he found Eddie Royal (5/44) often enough. Peyton Hillis continues to look good on the ground, where he carried the ball seven times for 27 yards and a touchdown as well as in the pass game, where he caught a pair of balls for 21 yards.

Rookie Kenny McKinley (3/76) also looked good but his biggest problem (as I talked about with Frank Schwab of the Colorado Springs Gazette last on Wednesday’s Thundering Blurb show) is inconsistency. McKinley still has some work to do, but could emerge in a year or so as a real player, especially if Brandon Marshall stays petulant and ends up leaving Denver.


Browns-Titans: Looking Back

Published: August 31, 2009

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Browns fans have something they haven’t had in a long time—hope.

In the dress rehearsal game before next week’s scrubfest, the Browns came out and took it to the Titans, beating them 23-17 in a game where the starters played well into the third quarter.

If there is anything the fan base can complain about this week, it was the Titans’ ability to throw the ball against Cleveland virtually at will. I was surprised we didn’t see more long passes from Kerry Collins and Vince Young; the receivers certainly were open.

But that can be chalked up to preseason game planning and other minor things that differentiate this past week’s game from a regular season game.

In other words, had this been Week One, the Titans probably would’ve put more points on the board.

What will be intriguing to watch going into Week One is how the coaching staff addresses the inability of the defense to stop the passing game. After the Packers game, head coach Eric Mangini really went after the team for the sloppiness and lack of production.

We’ve seen the results of that effort the last two weeks as the Browns have come out looking much tighter on the field, actually scored some touchdowns, and generally “look” better.

There still were some stupid penalties Saturday night, none more ticky-tack than the unsportsmanlike conduct on Derek Anderson for not standing exactly where the rule book prescribed, but overall the play has improved.

Speaking of the phantom rule book penalty, do you think that penalty is called during the playoffs or the Super Bowl?

I don’t think so. The ref who called that should get a good talking to this week about knowing when to pull that flag.

You can quote the rule book all you want, but when you call a penalty like that, it better be because the violation was egregious and deliberate, not because Anderson happened to be standing a few feet from where he’s supposed to be.

If I were on that field, my next play would’ve resulted in an accidental takedown of the ref. Whoops!

The defense did do a great job of stopping the run, though, and that was very encouraging. Holes were closed and runs around the end were routinely cut off and stuffed.

Putting on my Captain Obvious hat, I’ll simply say the Browns need to keep doing this when opposing teams call running plays. It helps keep the opposing team from scoring more.

On the quarterback front, Brady Quinn didn’t do anything to hurt his chances of being named the starting quarterback. His 11-15 for 128 yards was a very good performance and included a touchdown pass to Braylon Edwards.

You read that correctly, Edwards caught a touchdown pass. But before anyone gets too excited, that’s the first touchdown pass Edwards has caught since the Bush Administration, and while encouraging, it needs to happen a few more times before we all can relax when the ball is thrown in his direction.

Speaking of pass distribution, I can’t help but wonder if Edwards is hoping Anderson is named the starter. While Quinn hooked up with Edwards for six last week, Quinn has been avoiding Edwards for the most part, with most of his passes going to Mike Furrey, Joshua Cribbs, or one of the rookies.

I don’t know if it’s coincidence due to Quinn’s check down pattern, or if it’s deliberate because Edwards hasn’t been able to hold onto the ball lately. Either way, Edwards isn’t the type of teammate to keep quiet about this sort of thing once the regular season starts.

Anderson didn’t score a touchdown on Saturday, but he didn’t throw an interception, which is saying something. It means, for once, Anderson wasn’t trying to force the ball into places it shouldn’t be going. That’s progress, but it’s too early to know if Anderson is going to be consistent about this sort of thing.

Then there’s James Davis. All Davis did on Saturday is look like one of the biggest steals in the draft, catching balls and hitting holes against Tennessee’s first team like he’s done it before.

Jamal Lewis continues to look slow and Jerome Harrison still is unavailable.

The offensive line showed a lot more strength this week, as both quarterbacks showed they had ample time to throw the ball and adjust to the defense. There still were problems, but once again, it’s preseason and the team showed improvement.

Mangini sounded happier after the game, but I’m sure he’ll be looking at the film and working to find out what happened to his defensive secondary on the passing plays this week.

As for the quarterback competition, I’m sure Mangini still thinks the aura mystery means something to somebody (It doesn’t), so expect a lot more non-answers from him on that point.

The biggest worry coming out of the Titans game is that we still haven’t seen Shaun Rogers or Harrison. Mangini also (mistakenly) believes the huge aura of mystery surrounding their status and possible injury/non-injury is a good thing.

Instead, all the opposing teams have seen is Davis take control of the running game and get a really good look at what this defense looks like without Rogers.

Ironically, showcasing Davis is doing the exact opposite of what Mangini wants since now the Vikings will prepare for him in Week One.

The defense can only be better with Rogers in the game, there’s plenty of tape on Rogers, so I still fail to understand how Mangini thinks being tightlipped about the situation gives him a competitive advantage.

The calendar now is turning to September, and the clock is ticking louder on the regular season. So far, the fans should be happy with what they see as it is much improved over last year.

One more week of preseason to go, and we’ll see if the Browns are as good as they looked against the Titans, or as bad as they looked against the Packers.


Matt Cassel Injury Update: Will Miss Time with MCL Sprain

Published: August 31, 2009

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A couple weeks back I told you to be wary of Matt Cassel this year as you prepare for your fantasy football drafts. That he’s in a new city with only one true playmaker on the outside (Dwayne Bowe) and no longer has the dynamic duo of Randy Moss and Wes Welker to make things easy on him were a few of the reasons.

And now there is another reason: He’s injured.

According to ESPN.com this morning, Matt Cassel has a sprained MCL and will miss two to four weeks. This means he will most likely be out for Kansas City’s opener on Sept. 13 against Baltimore, and could miss more time after that. Tyler Thigpen will start in Cassel’s place.

So, since signing a six-year, $63 million deal (with $28 million guaranteed), Cassel has failed to dominate the incumbents Thigpen, and Brody Croyle, so much so that new coach Todd Haley was saying as recently as a few weeks ago that the starting job was in question.

And now, though through no fault of his own, Cassel is injured and will miss valuable time building continuity with his new offensive teammates early in the season.

Not exactly the most auspicious of beginnings for the guy the Chiefs are obviously hoping to build around for the next half decade.

Follow the links to StubHub for great deals on Kansas City Chiefs tickets and all 2009 NFL tickets.

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Jay Cutler Shows Pat Bowlen and Josh Mcdonkey What Time It Is

Published: August 31, 2009

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The stage was set, Horse fans from all over the state of Colorado came to boo their once beloved QB Jay Cutler. Fans dressed up in baby costumes with pacifiers in their mouths, there was people with signs, and the stadium was rocking. This was the chance for pay back.

However, Horse fans, Jay Cutler isn’t the one to be mad at. It’s Josh McDonkey for running Cutler out of town with trying to trade Cutler for Cassel.

In fact by the end of the season, those hate signs for Jay Cutler will turn into Fire Josh McDonkey signs.

Before the game, I predicted the first half score to be 21-3.

I was only off four points as Jay Cutler lead the Chicago Bears to an 17-3 halftime lead.

Cutler was on point as he went 15/21 for 144 yards and 1 touchdown pass.

Cutler was able top pick apart the Horses defense, they could not stop him as on Cutler final drive of the night he went 98 yards.

Cutler was unfazed by the Horse fan noise as, Cutler has said public that he feels the Horse fans on scale of noise is only a six out of 10. Plus you throw in that fact that he owns that stadium even if he is on the visiting team.

The Chicago Bears have found themselves a franchise QB, Jay Cutler will end his career in Chicago, and that franchise will be able to build around Cutler. The trade of a couple draft picks will never amount to the skill level of Jay Cutler.

It was on first hand display in front of Denver owner Pat Bowen as he had to sit and watch Jay Cutler out play Kyle Orton.

Will Kyle Orton end his career in Denver? Who knows? Is Kyle Orton someone you call a franchise QB? once again who knows?

Kyle Orton for the third straight week didn’t impress, he had his chance to show Horse fans why things would be ok, across the field was the same Chicago Bears team who didn’t want him, however, once again Kyle Orton failed.

Where is the heart? Kyle Orton had to come out the game with a chipped finger nail? Tony Romo played last season with a broken hand, and you mean to tell me not only did Kyle Orton come out the game with five mins left in the second half but had to go to the locker room?

What ever happened to just whipping the blood off and putting some tape around the finger.

Kyle Orton looked soft, while Jay Cutler looked great, Cutler was hitting passes left and right and you can really see how he makes other players around him better, Greg Olson, Matt Forte, Devin Hester, all of these players become better with playing with Cutler.

The look on Josh McDonkey face while Jay Cutler was ripping apart his defense while Kyle Orton was in the locker room for his finger was priceless.

Pat Bowlen must be second guessing himself.

It’s not the system, it’s the players in the system.

Kyle Orton is not the answer.

Jay Cutler just took a dump on the whole state of Colorado.


Packers Continue to Look Impressive Through Pre-Season

Published: August 31, 2009

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Last season was a disappointment for many Packer fans, finishing 6-10 with seven losses by four points or less.

Although it’s pre-season, the Pack have looked more than impressive behind their sophomore-starting quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers looks to continue to rise in stock through the pre-season by going 27 of 38 with six touchdowns and no interceptions. Rodgers appears to be poised to be a top-5 quarterback once again.

A huge improvement inside Lambeau Field is the defense.

Dom Capers has been able to form his 3-4 scheme around the deep defensive line of Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett, Aaron Kampmann, Cullen Jenkins, and newly-acquired B.J. Raji.

The combined speed and strength in the linebacker core has proved to be a difficult challenge for first-team offenses, with 12 first-team take aways on the Packers’ score sheet

Additionally, the Packers also holster a very dangerous pass-defense. The well-meshed group of Charles Woodson, Al Harris, Atari Bigby, and Nick Collins round out the potentially deadly defense.

The Pack have bullied their way through their first three games, and with the Tennessee Titans dropping their last two games in lack-luster performances, it appears Green Bay will go undefeated through pre-season.

Many will say, “It’s only pre-season.”

True, but the Packers are looking mighty good and are riding a freight-train of momentum. The NFC North Division had better be on their toes this season.


Denver Broncos Have Scary Moments During Haunted Dress Rehearsal

Published: August 31, 2009

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The Broncos came out to the third game of the preseason, unarguably the most significant, as it is the precursor to the regular season, the dress rehearsal if you will.

Denver came out to the game, in the team and fan aspects alike, as it was “Jay Day” as reported by Lindsay Jones of The Denver Post reported, the day in which disgruntled Broncos fans gathered in a Golden bar (that is ironically a Chicago themed one) to destroy Jay Cutler jerseys. Denver was represented well in the stands as fans booed and gave some Mile High Thunder during almost all of Cutler’s drives.

On the field, the Broncos showed up strong early, as they forced the Bears into two straight three-and-outs, before holding Chicago to only a field goal on their only decent drive of the first quarter.

Denver too was held to three three-and-outs in their first four drives and the offense was ineffective to say the least early. On the second punt of the second quarter, Devin Hester and the Bears made the Broncos’ special teams unit look silly, as he took the punt down to the Denver three yard line.

Chicago punched it in from there, took the lead 10-3, and never looked back. The Bears won 27-17 when all was said and done.

Likely the best drive of the night for the Bears, and worst for the Broncos offense, came with five minutes left in the first half and Chicago backed up to their own two yard line. Cutler directed an amazing drive, in which he passed for 86 of the 98 yards, including the touchdown that led to the score.

And while the Bears looked decently effective on offense, the Broncos stumbled down the field, and had many scares on the injury front.

Starting guard Chris Kuper, current No. 1 receiver Eddie Royal, Correll Buckhalter, and Peyton Hillis all sustained injuries that were disclosed so cryptically from the Broncos, that it’s hard to say how hurt any really are.

The scariest of the night was Kyle Orton’s lacerated pointer finger on his throwing hand, one that was cut eerily on a rushing defensive lineman’s hand. Denver did at least disclose that the finger was not broken or dislocated, although it was still worrisome to see the starting QB taken out of the game before McDaniels wanted him out.

In all, Orton still had an adequate night, as he went 12-for-16 for 96 yards. But Cutler outshined him in the game, as he passed 15-for-21 with 144 yards and a touchdown. Tom Brandstater, who was called on to play the entire second half, also played well going 8-for-12 with 110 yards.

For the Broncos, Buckhalter looked strong, rushing nine times for 37 yards, and Royal was speedy as usual grabbing five passes for 44 yards. Hillis backed up well at running back, and had seven carries for 24 yards and a touchdown. Also, rookie Eddie McKinley might have earned a spot in Denver’s deep receiving corps with a four catch, 75 yard outing.

In all, Denver played a fierce opponent to Chicago, which is a good sign for the Broncos overall. The Bears look to be playing for a playoff spot, and will be one of the better teams in the NFC North this year. And the biggest question surrounding this game is whether or not all the players that were hurt are injured, or just dinged up.

If any, let alone all will miss a significant amount of time, it will damage the Broncos plans for the current year.

Denver knows it is in the midst of rebuilding and retooling for a new regime, but it can still steal away some games, and will have a solid year even with all the controversy that has surrounded them in this offseason.


Things To Look for Before the Season Begins: Part Four

Published: August 31, 2009

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This will be a four-part series of things to look for in the final weeks of the 2009 Steelers’ preseason. This series will look at remaining position battles, injury updates and prognoses, play calling and coaching, and will preview the season prior to the Sept. 10 opener against the Tennessee Titans.

The Steelers have played two preseason games thus far, winning at home in the Super Bowl rematch against the Cardinals and dropping the game at FexEx Field against the Redskins last Saturday. While the road for the seventh Super Bowl title is well under way, the Steelers have several questions that need answers soon. Some of those answers are:

The active roster (my picks after the third preseason game)

 

Offense

QB Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon

RB Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Mewelde Moore, Isaac Redman*

WR Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Limas Sweed, Mike Wallace*, Shaun McDonald^

TE Heath Miller, Matt Spaeth, Sean McHugh (FB)

OT Max Starks, Willie Colon, Tony Hills

OG Chris Kemoeatu, Trai Essex, Darnell Stapleton, Kraig Urbik*

C Justin Hartwig, A.Q. Shipley*

 

Defense

DE Aaron Smith, Brett Keisel, Evander “Ziggy” Hood*, Nick Eason, Travis Kirschke

DT Casey Hampton, Chris Hoke

OLB James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, Bruce Davis, Patrick Bailey, Andre Frazier

ILB James Farrior, Lawrence Timmons, Keyaron Fox, Donovan Woods

CB Ivan “Ike” Taylor, William Gay, Deshea Townsend, Keenan Lewis*, Anthony Madison

S Troy Polamalu, Ryan Clark, Tyrone Carter, Keiwan Ratliff^

 

Special Teams

Long Snapper Greg Warren

Kicker Jeff Reed

Punter Daniel Sepulveda

Return Specialist Stefan Logan*

 

Practice Squad

RB Frank “the Tank” Summers*

WR Martin Nance

TE David Johnson*

OL Jeremy Parquet

OL Jason Capizzi

LB Arnold Harrison

CB Joe Burnett*

S Ryan Mundy

 

* denotes rookie

^ denotes free agent pickup

 

I hope I did not miss anyone important. Less than two weeks until the season opens. Best wishes to everyone, especially the Steelers.


Who Will Win the Washington Redskins’ Third-String RB Position?

Published: August 31, 2009

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The roster is beginning to take shape, but some strong performances last Friday against the Patriots left the running back position hotly contested.

With Rock Cartwright out, Devin Thomas impressed at kick returner. Should the ‘Skins decide they feel comfortable with Thomas, Cartwright’s position on the roster could be in doubt.

Cartwright is solely a special teamer. He doesn’t contribute on offense, and isn’t much of a threat to score when returning kicks. He is a consistent return man, but if the Redskins can find another player who can contribute in multiple areas, Cartwright could be gone.

The ‘Skins also need to sort out the running back position. Both Marcus Mason and Anthony Alridge played very well against New England while Ladell Betts remains the No. 2.

Dominique Dorsey is also in the mix as the ‘Skins have used him as both a running back and punt returner, but the strong performance of Alridge hurts his chances.

Alridge rushed for 49 yards on nine carries while Mason saw plenty of time en route to 30 yards and a TD on eight carries. Mason also caught two passes for 23 yards, but suffered some badly bruised ribs late, which could hurt his chances.

Betts didn’t get a carry and caught the ball once for 12 yards. He saw limited action after straining his back in the Steelers game.

The running back situation is incredibly murky. Nothing has been suggested as to whether Betts is fighting for the number two RB job, but there has been strong play behind him.

Betts is a back in the mold of Clinton Portis, meaning he isn’t much of a change-of-pace back. However, the team has stuck with him despite little production and a big contract.

Mason might have the best resume as a running back among the other three, but he also runs like Portis. He doesn’t play special teams well, which is a must for third-string backs and his injured ribs might not allow him to play this week for a final showing.

Alridge is a prototypical third down back. He catches well out of the backfield, is shifty with great speed, and would be a much needed home run threat for the offense. He had a fumbling problem early in training camp, and missed time with a toe injury, but he looked like he hadn’t missed a beat Friday night.

Dorsey and Alridge both can return punts, giving them extra value, but Alridge was more impressive on the ground against New England. Dorsey carried the ball five times for 22 yards, marking the second straight week of solid production.

I am uncertain how the ‘Skins will play this out. Cartwright might get cut as he can’t contribute on the ground even though he’s listed as a running back. This will open things up for the third-string RB.

Betts will most likely be locked in as the number two, and I think Alridge might play his way onto the roster. He’s explosive and that’s something the Redskins badly need. However, the ‘Skins like to keep keep things status quo so they could very well stick with Cartwright and Betts.

Mason plays his heart out and runs hard, but since he isn’t a change-of-pace and can’t contribute on special teams, he has to beat out Betts to make the team.

That would be a stretch, but if anyone has earned it it’s Mason. He plays relentlessly and is trying improve his special teams game. He looked good catching out of the backfield.

After the dust settles, it appears that Portis and Betts will occupy two spots while the third RB spot remains an enigma.

Prediction: Alridge because he’s the ideal change-of pace back. Mason and Cartwright will be in the running as well.

The talent at running back is deep so it won’t be an easy decision, but the ‘Skins could really take a big step forward offensively with Alridge providing his speed.


NFL: How Breakout and Breakdown Seasons Affect Future Performance

Published: August 31, 2009

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To say that Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck was a bust last year is an understatement.

Hasselbeck had finished in the top six in quarterback fantasy points three of five years from 2003 to 2007; fantasy owners were expecting another good season, as he was drafted as the No. 9 quarterback in standard leagues.

Injuries and poor performance plagued Hasselbeck. Just one year after throwing for career-highs in yards and touchdowns, he set career-worsts in passer rating (57.8), completion percentage (52.2), interception percentage (4.8), and yards per attempt (5.8).

This year, despite his team’s acquiring former Pro Bowl receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Hasselbeck’s average draft position puts him as the No. 15 quarterback.

Should his regression affect his 2009 performance that much? Or is he the top-10 quarterback we saw in previous years?

Naturally, this question applies to breakthrough performances, too. Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams finished as the No. 1 back in fantasy with 1,515 yards and 18 touchdowns last year.

He increased his yards per carry by 11.5 percent and his rushing touchdown percentage by 137 percent from his 2007 stats.

Drafted on average as the No. 9 running back, the consensus is that Williams will fall back some from his 2008 numbers.

Regression to the mean should obviously kick in for Williams, but it’s unseen as to whether his two good-not-great seasons will have any value in our 2009 ranking for him.

Before any analysis, we must first define a breakout. My criterion for a breakout season is a 15 percent increase in fantasy points per attempt or reception—or quarterback rating—over their highest value in the previous two years, and a breakdown season is one in which there is a 15 percent decrease from the minimum value in the previous two years, while staying on the same team each year.

For instance, there have been 37 running backs since 1980 to have a breakout season after two good-not-great seasons, as was the case for Williams; they saw a 19 percent drop in their fantasy points per carry (FPPC) the year after their breakout, regressing almost 75 percent back to their pre-breakout performance.

Yet there’s a selection bias in that sample. Those 37 running backs’ fantasy points per carry was almost 30 percent higher than average in their breakout season, and we’d expect regression to the mean to kick in regardless of whether they broke out.

So, I compared those 37 backs’ performance in the year after their breakout to a baseline performance: The next-year performance of all running backs with a similar FPPC average.

That is, the next-year performance among all running backs since 1980 with a FPPC within 0.015 points of the FPPC average in the 37 rushers’ breakout season was nearly equal to the breakout-backs’ next-year performance—less than one-tenth of one percent higher.

In other words, the fact that there was a breakout—as well as the fact that those 37 backs had almost league-average production in the two years before the breakout—made no difference in their next-year production.

They would have regressed to the mean just as much if they had performed at their breakout level for three straight seasons.

Let’s see how those numbers compare to other positions.

Quarterbacks

To clarify my criteria, I looked at all quarterbacks with 150 attempts in three straight seasons and found all passers who had a breakout or breakdown season in either their first or third years.

Players who fall under the “in the first year” status include Jim Kelly as a “breakout” (97.6 rating in 1991, followed by two near-80 ratings) and Ken Anderson as a “breakdown” (66.9 passer rating in 1980, followed by two above-90 ratings).

The first table below shows QBs who had a breakout or breakdown season—compared to the two seasons prior—as well as their post-breakout or breakdown passer rating, and the baseline performance (the average next-season rating of all QBs with a passer rating within five points of the breakout- or breakdown-season rating).

What the table means: The 43 passers who broke out had a 74.5 rating two years before their breakout, a 75.4 rating one year prior to the breakout, and a 92.3 rating in their breakout season.

The 43 passers had an 83.8 rating the year after the breakout, while the baseline performance was an 86.8 passer rating.

That means that the 92.3 rating they had in their breakout season had no effect on their next-season rating; they regressed more than normal, since they had had two mundane passer ratings the two years before the breakout.

The same occurs for breakdowns, though the difference isn’t as pronounced; because of the two good seasons prior to their breakdown, broken-down passers tend to bounce back more than a quarterback with similar stats.

Let’s see how these stats compare to the quarterbacks whose breakouts or breakdowns came in the first year of a three-year stretch.

There were 26 passers who posted a passer rating that was 15 percent greater than either of their next two seasons’ ratings. One season later, their collective ratings were six points higher than the baseline rating we expected.

The 10 percent increase in passer rating from year three to year four is astonishing. The baseline performance is almost equal to the 26 quarterbacks’ weighted rating in those three years (weighting each season as half as significant as the next returns a 79.4 rating).

Instead, it rises to 84.8, but that rise isn’t all credited to their breakout in the first year. The two years prior to that “breakout,” the 26 quarterbacks had ratings above or just below 90.

That suggests that the passers were slightly lucky when their ratings were in the 90s for three years, unlucky the next two years, and finally regressed back to their true talent level of 84. (Indeed, the following year, their passer rating held steady at 83.7.)

As for the 47 passers in the other group, their breakdown in the first year was a factor in their year-four passer rating.

They had a weighted passer rating average of 83.9 in the first three seasons, which would have risen to 86.2 had they put up a rating of 84 in the first year.

That’s a difference of 2.3 points—also the discrepancy between the baseline performance and their year-four passer rating.

On the other hand, there’s no effect if I look at quarterbacks with a breakout or breakdown season in the first season of a four-year stretch (despite the small sample size).

There were only seven quarterbacks who fit the breakout requirement; they had a decline in passer rating each year after their 100.1 rating.

The 27 passers who had a first-year breakdown produced a year-five rating that was just fractions below their expected performance.

The more attempts they racked up (in years two through four), the more we were certain that their true talent level was in the mid-80’s.

 

Conclusion

Quarterbacks whose breakout or breakdown occurs in the final year of a three-year stretch regress more to the mean compared to a baseline expectation.

The difference is equal to about two points of quarterback rating, with a larger regression for breakouts than breakdown performances.

The 26 quarterbacks whose breakout came in year one had their rating drop 15 points, stay in the high 70’s, then regress back to the low-to-mid 80’s.

Their up-and-down performance leads to a valuable notice: We always expect that a player’s true talent level is equal to his sample performance plus a regression to the mean.

Quarterbacks who have a breakdown season in the first year of a three-year stretch have a more dramatic decline after the third season than their baseline, owing to the breakdown performance; if those passers had a passer rating of 84 instead of 67.8 in the first season, we would expect their fourth-year production to be equal to that of the baseline.

2009 cases: Matt Hasselbeck, third-year breakdown.

 

Running Backs

Let’s see how the quarterback data compare to running backs. Only running backs that had 100 carries in three straight seasons are included. Fantasy points per attempt are prorated to 250 attempts in the tables below.

While it seems surprising that breakout rushers performed to their expectation the next year, the 37 backs had such a large increase in fantasy points per 250 attempts (FP/250) in their breakout season (29 percent) that their weighted FP/250 is 174, enough to suggest that the remaining 13-point decrease is from regression to the mean.

Running backs that broke down performed eight percent better than their baseline expectations the year after their breakdown, jumping from 135 to 150 FP/250. Although their FP/250 fell two straight years, their weighted FP/250 (154) predicted otherwise.

Now, what about backs whose breakout or breakdown came in the first year?

The first year of the three-year stretch affected both groups of running backs, though it wasn’t as profound for the breakdown group.

The 52 breakout backs had a five-point increase from the third to the fourth year, while the baseline suggested a five-point drop was in store.

Again, the weighted average (157) predicted their next-season performance better than the breakout itself.

Running backs whose breakdown occurred in the first year of a three-year stretch had a 13 percent drop in production from the third to the fourth years.

That, however, isn’t such a large decrease, since the baseline was an 11 percent drop. That said, the three-point difference in FP/250 is hardly significant.

When we look at four-year stretches with a first-year breakdown, the final-year FP/250 is equal to the baseline performance, at 163 FP/250.

The 16 backs that apply had 133 in their down year, followed by three years of FP/250’s in the 170’s, and then 163 a season later, as shown below.

 

Conclusion

A breakout or breakdown in the final year of a three-year stretch has no extra effect on a running back’s future production, compared to a baseline expectation.

Breakout backs performed to their baseline, and breakdown backs had 11 more FP/250 than expected.

When the breakout occurs in the first year, however, there’s a 10-point difference that is clearly influenced by the first-year 199 FP/250 rate. There’s no evidence that a breakdown in the first year has any effect on the year-four FP/250.

2009 cases: DeAngelo Williams (third-year breakout); LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber, Joseph Addai, and Fred Taylor (third-year breakdown); Maurice Jones-Drew, Barber, Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker (first-year breakout); Williams, Ronnie Brown, and Chester Taylor (first-year breakdown).

Wide Receivers

How do the receivers stack up? I looked at wide receivers and tight ends with 30 receptions in three straight seasons, and the results aren’t shocking.

Here are the data for breakouts and breakdowns in year one. Fantasy points per catch is prorated to 70 receptions (FP/70).

Breakouts and breakdowns for receivers aren’t much different from quarterbacks and running backs, and the disparity between actual and expected performance is much greater for wideouts.

The 89 breakout receivers were 13 points worse than their expectation, which was also nearly equal to their weighted average FP/70 of 149.

Those 89 receivers had a 17.5 percent drop in production from their breakout season to the next, compared to their expected drop of 9.6 percent.

The breakdown group reminds us that a weighted average of past performance is always more accurate for future forecasts than one year alone. Their 117 FP/70 in their low year was expected to be followed up by 125 FP/70, but their three-year weighted average of 133 FP/70 was right on the dot.

There’s an interesting contradiction when we look at first-year breakouts and breakdowns. One table gives one conclusion, but the other says otherwise. The first table shows data for three-year stretches…

And the next table shows data for four-year stretches.

Both tables tend to agree on first-year breakouts; each suggests a three- or seven-point difference in FP/70 between actual and the baseline performance.

But it’s the breakdowns that are fascinating. One table—the three-year stretch—says that receivers with a first-year breakdown perform five points worse than the baseline.

The other, though—looking at four-year stretches—says that the same receivers produce four points better than expected.

We’re arguing semantics, however. Both tables are most likely correct, considering the samples they use: If a receiver has three good seasons after a bad year, the down year (which is four years ago) is outnumbered by the good years and has so little weight in determining the player’s true talent level.

Chances are his true talent lies closer to the three stellar years as opposed to the poor season.

 

Conclusion

Third-year breakouts and breakdowns for receivers have much less weight compared to other positions in their future production.

As always, a weighted average of past production is better at predicted next year’s stats than on season (the breakout or breakdown) alone.

Wideouts with first-year breakouts perform about three points better than expected. Those with first-year breakdowns, though, tend to play better or worse than expected, based on which group you’re looking at.

With just two seasons of data after a breakdown, receivers perform five points worse than the baseline, but they are four points better than expected with three years of stats after their breakdown.

2009 cases: Derrick Mason, Deion Branch, Steve Smith (NYG), Mark Clayton (third-year breakout); T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ochocinco, Plaxico Burress, Dallas Clark, Chris Cooley, Heath Miller, Desmond Clark (third-year breakdown); Santana Moss, Josh Reed, Clayton, De. Clark, Owen Daniels (first-year breakout); Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Kellen Winslow (first-year breakdown, three-year stretch); Ike Hilliard (first-year breakdown, four-year stretch).


When the Last Lion Leaves: Tedy Bruschi to Announce His NFL Retirement

Published: August 31, 2009

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It’s one of those funny old things, growing up a sports fan.

When you’re a kid, athletes just don’t seem real.

They pop in and out of your lives, flickering across the screen; four-inch-tall Adonises, larger than life.

Theirs is a world where you just play—where the lights don’t go out and mom is never calling you home.

They play and play, and when it’s all said and done, they go to Disney World.

You stand in your backyard and count down from five. You pretend to be them. You catch imaginary interceptions from imaginary quarterbacks to win imaginary Super Bowls.

You don’t think about the other side. The sheer dedication. The losses, off the field and on. The time away from their family. The brutal side of the game, of life.

Your team never loses; it just runs out of time. There’s no end to consider, no after.

You don’t think about those things—things like strokes. You don’t even know what that word means.

Yet for many in New England just growing up with that Patriot dynasty, their first real winning team, Tedy Bruschi became a very hard lesson.

I can’t imagine the thoughts that went through his mind after suffering a stroke, a young man at the height of his athletic life. 

Just a week after playing with his kids on the turf before the Super Bowl, Tedy Bruschi was suddenly playing chicken with his own mortality, asking the questions that I can only imagine kept him up many nights.

Why did this happen? What do I do next? Did football cause this? Can I still play? What about my family?

Maybe his years in football caused him to have a stroke. Maybe not. I don’t know that. But I know that when news broke of his stroke, everyone in New England suddenly realized how worthless a trophy can seem.

Now, new news is breaking. Tedy Bruschi, his ability no longer of equal measure with his desire, is surplus to requirements. Tedy Bruschi is retiring.

It’s a funny old thing, growing up a sports fan; watching your Sunday heroes grow into real people with real problems, with ACLs that tear and bones that break and careers that end.

Call it a favor. Call it New England being nice and giving Tedy the dignity of choosing his own way to leave.

Call it what you want, but even the cynic in me has to give the guy credit for walking out the door instead of finding his name on a cut list.

Where his life goes from here is impossible to say. Maybe he’ll “unretire.” Maybe he’ll take a well-deserved break.

Who knows? We only know where his life has been, where it has led him: to here, to now, to a place where football no longer needs him.

I’d call it a damn shame, but that’s not the truth.

The truth is Tedy Bruschi no longer needs football.

It was lucky to have him, and there’s no shame in that.


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