Top 10 Reasons the Philadelphia Eagles Will Not Make the Playoffs

 

In my last article, I analyzed 31 NFL experts and their playoff predictions. Twenty-eight of the 31 experts predict the Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs. Ninety percent of the sample of experts thinks that the Eagles will build off their NFC Championship run and additions during the offseason to make another playoff run.

I must be missing something, because I see a very difficult road for the Eagles to make the playoffs.

Before I get into my reasoning for them not making it, I will look at some positives. The Eagles have the positive fact going for them that since the NFL went to 32 teams; half of the NFC Wild Card teams have come from the East. The Eagles home schedule is very manageable, with them facing the Chiefs, Saints, Bucs, 49ers, and the Broncos.

They definitely have the potential to go 6-2 at home (assuming they go 2-1 at home in division and 4-1 out of division) and have three games in a row at home including a bye. The Eagles have added some dynamic players on offense. I see 10 reasons that trump the positives above on why the Eagles will not return to the playoffs.

10. Road Schedule – I know it is tough to predict how teams will be from year to year, but the road games they face look to be really challenging. Luckily they get the Cowboys on the road in January, when Dallas usually has fallen apart for the year. The rest of the road games are all tricky.

They play in Carolina, Oakland (long trips are always risky), San Diego, Chicago and Atlanta. Three stretches of two road games in a row, no bye breaking up any of the road games. Combined, the Eagles have an eight game stretch of games at Washington, vs New York, vs Dallas, at San Diego, at Chicago, vs Washington at Atlanta and at New York.

That is a brutal physical stretch with five division games, one west coast trip and a trip to Atlanta which I’m sure will be fun for reasons listed later.

 

9. Sports Karma – Sports Karma is a bitch, and so far the Eagles have not received the wrath of negative karma since their horrible crime (well maybe they have, but I’m not going there). In fact they had some really positive karma working for them. The Eagles finished 9-6-1 last year, and needed a series of strange events to even make the playoffs.

The Cowboys had to choke against the Ravens. The Bucs had to blow a lead against the Chargers and then screw up a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Raiders at home, and Chicago lost to Houston in the last week of the season.

Then the Eagles got incredibly shaky Minnesota, and faced a talented yet distracted Giants team. The Eagles made a great run, and had a lot working for them in terms of karma.

The one has to come back and haunt them. There is no way the Eagles escape free and clear from the worst game in NFL history last year. That Cincinnati tie was horrendous on so many levels, and to think that the same Eagles team made the NFC Championship only makes the likelihood of a crash much more likely.

The Bengals suffered the wrath by being the Bengals; they’ve done their time for 20 years. The Eagles will not catch the same positive breaks they caught last year.

8. History – Since 2002, only one out of six NFC No. 6 seeds have returned to the playoffs the next year. In the last four years, only 28 percent of teams that missed the playoffs the previous year and then make the playoffs the next year return in year three.

The last four NFC Champion runner-ups have failed to make the playoffs the following year. The turnover rate of playoff teams in the last 10 years has been 53 percent. The last six years the turnover rate of playoff teams in the NFC has been 61 percent.

7. Michael Vick – He’s a backup who will be put into certain formations. His impact will range from little to a few bursts here or there. He might still make an impact running the ball but a big question has to be asked about his speed given his time away from football.

In 2006, he did throw 20 TD’s, but also only completed 53 percent of his passes, and also gave the finger to the Atlanta fans after a game. Bet that won’t go over well in Philly.

Game eight of Philly’s really difficult stretch is at Atlanta, and if any group of fans will backlash over Vick’s return to the NFL, it’s the Falcons fans. At that crucial point in the season, Vick becomes a distraction.

How much Vick plays at quarterback depends a lot on No. 6.

6. Jason Peters – Good luck with all that. Peters came out of college as an undrafted tight end, and with the Bills he showed a lot of athleticism. I’m not sure any other left tackle has a punt block and fumble recovery touchdown on his resume.

He developed into a successful left tackle, and during the 2006 season he played really well. He wasn’t as good in 2007, but he was solid and made the Pro Bowl.

Then the fun began, as Peters held out for a new contract before the 2008 season, and the Bills wouldn’t give in. He finally showed up in time to play for week two, and he came in out of shape. He never really got in shape either, and he was terrible last year.

He tied for the most sacks allowed by a left tackle with 11.5, the Bills offensive line played better the games he wasn’t in there, and yet he still made the Pro Bowl. Please take a moment to remember the JP Losman fumble against the Jets and the left tackle who failed to even lay a hand on the corner that sacked Losman.

That’s pro bowl stuff. He never got in shape last year and has had multiple injuries the last few years and it becomes difficult to believe he will ever get back to his 2006 condition. Why should he? He got his payday from the Eagles by playing mediocre football last year.

I have to wonder if McNabb can take 11 blindside sacks and numerous hits and pressures without an injury.

 

5. Injuries – The season hasn’t even started and the Eagles already have wrath of injuries. Their offense line has been decimated this preseason. Shawn Andrews is hurt, Todd Herramens is injured, Stacey Andrews is as healthy as a 300+ pounder with knee surgery can be, and Peters has been hurt already. Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley was lost for the season.

Going into the game versus Carolina, the Eagles have 14 players on the injured list. The Panthers have two. A team that is lacking health in September rarely gets healthy in December, especially with an eight-game stretch like the Eagles have this year. Especially since the offense line is really stricken and they have to protect their two stars.

4. McNabb and Westbrook – Football players are not like wine. They rarely get better with age. The Eagles are a mostly young team, except that McNabb and Westbrook have the most mileage on them. Contrary to common belief, Westbrook has played most of the games the last few years, just missing four games in the last three years.

Westbrook was banged up a lot last year, and his productivity was hurt, and he’s already hurting before week one. The Eagles were at least smart to draft a backup. McNabb played very well last year, but of course has had many injuries and is a year older and has to deal with Jason Peters allowing free blitzes on way too many occasions.

McNabb will be 33 by the end of the season, which isn’t old, and can definitely succeed if he can stand up for all 16 games, but that offensive line has to scare him.

3. Jim Johnson – It was a terrible situation in the offseason for the Eagles. Johnson’s cancer came back, and he put up a strong fight, even coming back to practices to give his best effort to coach during minicamp. He had to leave the team as the cancer got worse and ultimately took his life at the age of 68.

What effect that Johnson being gone on the players is unknown, but for sure he is gone, and this is a big hole in the Eagles organization. He was the mind behind an always aggressive defense and will be very difficult to replace.

2. Brian Dawkins – Jim Johnson was the mind of the Eagles defense, Brian Dawkins was the heart. At 35, and with a big contract offer on the table from the Broncos, letting him go might have made sense in terms of long-term dealings.

However, with McNabb at the helm, the Eagles need to be more short term, and Dawkins was the leader of that defense.

He was the energy, he was the energy that brought the crazy Eagles fans off their feet. Victor Harris may be quicker than Dawkins, but Dawkins was Philadelphia, and that’s something Harris needs about six years to do.

1. The experts – When five of the 16 ESPN experts have the Eagles going to the Super Bowl, and countless other experts across the country have the same, one has to wonder what the track records of the experts is, and last year the hot team was the Cowboys. They didn’t make the playoffs.

In the NFC especially, the further off the radar a team is, the better shot they have to make the Super Bowl. The Cardinals, Giants, Bears, Panthers, Seahawks are perfect examples of that this decade.

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John Manoogian’s NFL Pick ’em: Week One

Much like Regina Falange or Art Vandelay, John Manoogian is my jack-of-all-trades alter ego. Here’s his backstory and why you should trust him as an NFL prognosticator.

A frustrated high school football coach from Huntsville, Missouri, John R. Manoogian was fired after a successful eight-year tenure at George Washington High after he kicked one of the opposing players as he was running down the sideline.

“There were two blatant holds on the line. I was just evening the play out,” Manoogian recalls.

After interview requests with ESPN, CBS, NBC, FOX, Yahoo Sports, The Alaska Free Press and Puerto Rico Futbol Caliente were denied, Manoogian approached me for a regular spot on Bleacher Report.

I calmly explained to him that he could create his own user and publish his analysis directly, but he refused. “Don’t trust computers. Never have. In accordance with The Manoogian philosophy which states: ‘Always be aggressive, play the whole 60 minutes and never trust computers.”

After several ideas for articles were discarded for being too specific and/or wacky (“Calculating how many times Philip Rivers lick his fingers during the third quarter and how often does this correlate to victory in October night games”), I’ve given him a weekly picks column to get his feet wet.

This first week will be purely win/lose, while future weeks will also include spread lines.

Take it away, John!

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2009 Miami Dolphins Preview

I’m waking up in less than seven hours to go downtown and tailgate for the Miami Dolphins’ season opener in Atlanta, so I don’t quite have much time to do an in-depth preview of this year’s team. Of course, this will probably still have much more depth than any of you would prefer!

Here’s my assessment, position by position, of the 2009 Miami Dolphins:

Quarterback

Chad Pennington is no Manning or Brady, and we know that. His lack of arm strength does show at times, and if you were down big late in a game, he wouldn’t be your first choice to lead a comeback.

That being said, Pennington is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL and does as good a job as anyone protecting the football. He might not get you out of a big hole late into a game, but he’s unlikely to cause one of those huge deficits in the first place.

Quarterbacks far less talented than Pennington have gone on to playoff success, and there’s no reason he can’t do the same if the team around him does its part. He’s not the long-term answer and he’s not an elite passer, but he’s someone fans should be confident in each and every game, because he’s always going to protect the ball and give the team a chance.

Backup Chad Henne had his ups and downs in the preseason, but I like what I’ve seen of his development overall. He’s the future of the franchise (possibly as soon as 2010 with Pennington’s expiring contract) and I’m confident in his ability to be the No. 2 guy in 2009 if he were forced into action.

Rookie third-stringer Pat White presents some intriguing new options on offense, but he doesn’t look ready to run an NFL offense full-time. I don’t expect much him in 2009, and we all better pray both Chads don’t go down.

Grade: B-

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Running Back

The Dolphins’ deepest position on offense, Miami has nothing to worry about here as long as the offensive line does their part. I believe Ronnie Brown is poised for a breakout season after the Dolphins eased him back into things in 2008 while he recovered from a torn ACL the year before. Ronnie has a terrific blend of size, speed and strength and can be dominant if he gets help up front.

A lot of people think Ricky Williams has lost a step, but the guy’s much faster than people think and he still has some thump in him as well. He’s a quality backup that rivals any other team’s No. 2 back and is easily capable of carrying the load if he has to.

Patrick Cobbs isn’t feature-back material, but he’s the kind of football player teams love to have because of his work ethic and versatility. He’s a good special teams player, a good receiver out of the backfield and runs hard.

Fullback Lousaka Polite isn’t a big name and was kind of a journeyman before landing in Miami last season. However, he did a good job blocking for the tailbacks in 2008 and also proved quite useful as a ball-carrier in short-yardage situations.

Grade: A

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Wide Receiver

I’m a bigger fan of Ted Ginn’s than most, and I’m happy with his progression to date. Wide receivers always take a few years to develop, and after a solid sophomore campaign in 2008, I think Ginn could be in for his first 1,000-yard season in 2009. He has all the speed and athleticism you could ask for, and his hands and route-running is getting better all the time.

Beyond Ginn, there are a few “solid” guys but nobody really special or with a very high ceiling. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess are both good possession men, but will never be more than slot receivers and probably wouldn’t have roles nearly this big on a team with a better receiving corps.

Rooke Brian Hartline looks promising, but I don’t expect much from him as a rookie and he probably won’t be more than the fourth receiver. Meanwhile, fellow first-year Patrick Turner has been unimpressive so far, and I’m already concerned he might be what Ernest Wilford was in Miami, rather than what Wilford was supposed to be.

Grade: C

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Tight End

After a few seasons backing up Jason Witten in Dallas, Anthony Fasano got his chance to be the leading man in Miami and didn’t disappoint. Fasano isn’t an elite tight end on the level of an Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, but he’s certainly the notch below them. He does everything well and is just a reliable and solid all-around tight end.

The Dolphin are lacking a veteran presence beyond Fasano after David Martin was placed on injured reserve, but I’m not too worried. Joey Haynos stepping into Martin’s role in 2009 is one of the things I’m most excited about seeing this season, and I think he has the talent to thrive.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

The line had their struggles in the preseason, and when it didn’t get better as time went on, it started to become a bit of a concern for me. Jake Long and Jake Grove in particular seemed to have their problems, but both are very talented players that should get things straightened out.

A big key for the Dolphins on the offensive line is right guard Donald Thomas. He was a monster at times during the 2009 preseason, and the team really struggled to fill the right guard spot all of 2008 when Thomas was lost in the season opener. If he can perform nearly as well as most seem to think he can, he’ll be a huge asset up front.

The Dolphins’ line isn’t quite “there yet,” but it is solid and I do expect they’ll get better as they play together more and the season progresses. I think there’s enough young talent in the unit to eventually be one of the best lines in all of football.

Grade: B

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Defensive Line

I’ve consistently said that defensive end is possibly the Dolphins’ deepest position, and I certainly still believe it. Kendall Langford was extremely impressive as a rookie, while Randy Starks and Phillip Merling both came along quite nicely as well. Tony McDaniel and Lionel Dotson both look like solid backup material and could be worthy of spots in the line rotation before season’s end.

Nose tackle is a bit of a long-term concern because of Jason Ferguson’s age, but that’s not an issue in 2009 because the guy can still clog up the middle as well as most. He’s a good anchor when he’s in there, and Paul Soliai is a quality backup nose tackle to have despite his disappointments thus far.

Grade: A-

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Linebacker

Outsiders seem to think Jason Taylor is washed up and over-the-hill because of an injury-plagued 2008 in Washington, but everything we’ve seen since his return to Miami has been positive. The guy’s leadership cannot be overstated, but that’s secondary to his play on the field, which is still excellent. Not only is Taylor still a quality pass-rusher, but he’s also better against the run that people give him credit for.

Joey Porter should continue to thrive as a pass-rusher in Miami, especially now playing opposite Taylor. One thing he must get better at is his run defense, which was nothing short of horrendous in 2008. Matt Roth, whose strange preseason absence has been well-documented, was Miami’s best run-stopping outside linebacker, so it’s time for Porter to step up.

The Dolphins are pretty solid up the middle with Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele, though both miss a few too many tackles for my liking and I’d prefer to see them clamp down on that sort of thing. The defensive line is doing its job in occupying the blockers—now it’s time for Crowder and Ayodele to do their part.

Depth across the linebacker positions is solid, and at times, quite intriguing. Charlie Anderson has already established himself as a good situational rusher, while CFL import Cameron Wake could be a real sleeper prospect for the Dolphins. Reggie Torbor, while overpaid, is a solid third inside linebacker, while Erik Walden and Quentin Moses are both decent, young backups outside.

Grade: B

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Cornerback

Will Allen is a better corner than most around the league give him credit for and is a viable No. 1 option. He should continue to play at a high level for the Dolphins and is an excellent veteran under which the Dolphins’ rookies can learn.

Speaking of those rookies, Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have big shoes to fill in trying to replace departed free agent Andre’ Goodman. Smith has been outstanding in camp and Davis is a great prospect as well, but they’re playing probably the most difficult position in the entire game to play as a rookie and are going to make their share of mistakes.

Beyond that, Nathan Jones is a solid dime back, but not much more, while first-round bust Jason Allen is really nothing more than a special-teamer and probably never will be. The Dolphins inexperience and lack of depth could be problematic, especially if injuries were to occur.

Grade: C+

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Safety

There are things to like about each of Miami’s starting safeties. The problem is, it’s the same thing. Both Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell are terrific tacklers that play the run very well. They’re both your ideal, “eight man, in-the-box” safety.

The problem is, both can be shaky in pass coverage, and its somewhat curious the team gave Gibril Wilson such a big contract and moved him to free safety given his style of play. I worry this unit could be exploited because of the players’ common weaknesses. A strong pass-rush will help, but these guys are going to get beat at times and give up their share of big plays.

There is decent depth here, as Tyrone Culver proved to be a quality backup in 2008 and rookie Chris Clemons has some upside as well. Clemons won’t be asked to do much more than special teams as a rookie.

Grade: C

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Special Teams

The Dolphins don’t have an elite kicker or an elite punter. Both Dan Carpenter and Brandon Fields are just solid. Hopefully, Carpenter continues to progress after a strong rookie season, though some struggles in camp have be a little worried. I’d also like to see a little more from Fields, who had a leg capable of booming them, but is a little inconsistent.

As for John Denney…well, he’s a long snapper. How do you rate long snappers. He’s been fine for Miami, outside of a few bad snaps against the New York Jets in the regular season finale in 2008. But I’m sure he’ll be fine. He’s not going to make or break the season.

Grade: B-

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Conclusion and prediction

This sort of thing is a thin wire on which to balance for me. If I predict the Dolphins to do too well, I’m biased and a homer. If I predict them to do to poorly, I’m a traitor and an idiot in the eyes of Dolphins fans everywhere.

Of course, I can only give my honest opinion, and that is I think the Dolphins will probably hover around .500 this season and likely miss out on a wild card spot.

I know, I know. The Dolphins won the AFC East last season and are now in their second year of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano era, so they should be even better. Unfortunately, things are a little more complicated than that.

Yes, the Dolphins improved from 2007 to 2008, in part, because of the arrival of Bill Parcells. But such a drastic improvement was not just the result of one man’s presence. It was a lot of a luck, and that includes the season-ending injury to Tom Brady, great fortunate when it came to the Dolphins’ own health, and a seriously easy schedule down the stretch.

Let’s face it: The Dolphins beat a lot of bad team in 2008, and a lot of the time they barely beat them. Then, when they got the playoffs, they were completely handled by the Baltimore Ravens and a rookie quarterback.

The way I see it, with such a difficult schedule in 2009, the Dolphins could be much better than they were in 2008, and come away with a worse record. I think .500 is about right for a team that’s on the rise, but is still missing some pieces and probably can’t count on being as lucky again as they were last season.

Final prediction: 8-8 (Sorry guys. I hope I’m wrong!)

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins website, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on twitter here.

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Tennessee Titans in Search of Killer Instinct

So much for peaking early.

After Thursday night’s 13-10 overtime loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Tennessee Titans found themselves in relatively unfamiliar territory.  

0-1.  

In times like this, the old Nietzsche axiom-cum-cliché rings true.

“That which does not kill me, makes me stronger.”

Basically, this is a good thing.  But more on that later.  First things first: the negatives.

For one thing, the Titans further perpetuated their reputation as not being able to finish and seal the deal.  Just like last year’s early playoff exit at the hand of the Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee owned the game, statistically speaking.  

Consider the uncanny comparisons:

A.  They pretty much moved the ball at will against a vaunted defense.

B.  They effectively shut down the running game of a smash-mouth offense.

Just one small thing, however.  The final score, which was eerily the same.  

“The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t beat the Tennessee Titans,” Titans receiver (and former Steeler) Nate Washington told the Associated Press after the game.  “The Tennessee Titans beat the Tennessee Titans.”

A cleverly articulated summation of a knock-down, drag-out game, yes.  

But one that the Titans and their fans are growing weary of hearing.  

It is becoming blindingly obvious that Tennessee desperately needs to learn to go for the jugular in tight games and not merely rely on their opponent to make mistakes.

Being the better team doesn’t translate into victory if, well, they don’t play like the better team when it counts the most.  That includes not letting an unknown, lightly regarded wideout from the University of Mississippi (Mike Wallace) make the game-winning catch.  

In spite of the negatives, there is in fact quite the positive spin on this.

“I believe we’ve got a good team in that locker room,” Jeff Fisher told the media after the game.  “And we’re going to bounce back.”

Here are a few reasons he just might be right.

Third Time’s a Charm

Zero Super Bowl titles notwithstanding, the franchise does have a knack for bouncing back, historically.  It’s a safe bet that back-to-back bitter losses to even more bitter rivals has strengthened their resolve, especially when viewed in light of the lofty expectations.  

Throw in an unproven New York Jets squad with some traditionally underachieving AFC South competition, and the Titans could easily find themselves at 3-1, dripping with confidence and swagger before they face two stout tests in Indianapolis and New England before their bye. 

Silver Linings

To go into a hostile Heinz Field environment and take the defending world champions to the wire all but refutes the “paper tiger” label.  Even with the loss, the Titans proved their mettle in the opener.  True, there is still work to be done in regards to execution and finishing, but it doesn’t get much harder than it did in Pittsburgh.  

While Nate Washington’s quote could easily be dismissed as the misguided ramblings of a sore loser, he does have a point.  This time around, there were no ready-made excuses; no “oh, but (Steelers defensive coordinator) Dick LeBeau used a vanilla defense.”  

Both teams left it all on the field, with the outcome arguably being decided by the luck of a coin toss, given both teams’ success through the air.

Granted, the loss of all pro safety Troy Polamalu was significant, but world champions find a way to adjust, and the Steelers’ defense did, in fact, remain formidable.  

Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad

Much has been made of Tennessee’s tough schedule, with most experts and fans alike predicting a lower finish than last year.  Yet upon further review, the last two thirds of the season are actually quite manageable.  

After their Oct. 25 bye week, there is essentially nobody on the docket that the Titans can’t theoretically handle.  While there is always the “any given Sunday” factor, on the whole, there shouldn’t be too many surprises.  

While some teams pose more of a challenge than others, (Arizona, Indy and Miami come to mind), the AFC playoff race should be fun for Tennessee fans to watch come December.  Especially since the team will be presumably tested and seasoned by that point.

Actually, they just might already be. 

With one game down and 15 to go, there are literally millions of scenarios that could play out, rendering the pontifications of many a sports writers’ diatribes null and moot.  

But at this point and juncture, Jeff Fisher just might be on to something with his trademark Oakley shades.

The future looks bright.

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Philadelphia Eagles’ Top Five Regular Season Concerns

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The Brady Hunch: 49ers @ Cardinals Pregame

The Cardinals and 49ers kickoff the season at University of Phoenix Stadium, which will forevermore in this space be known simply as Cardinals Stadium, ‘The Nest’, or UoP Stadium.

This is a series that has been close and entertaining since their first matchup in 1951 (A Cards win). Example: What long time Cardinals fan can forget ‘The Comeback’ in the Big Red’s inaugural season in the Valley? This was the 6-4 Young/Rice/Craig, etc.. Champion 49ers against the 6-4 underdog Cardinals in a classic at Sun Devil Stadium, the Cards old stomping grounds on ASU’s campus.

Trailing 23-0 late in the 3rd quarter, Cards QB Neil Lomax hooked up with WR Roy ‘Jetstream’ Green on a 35 yard TD pass to narrowed it to 23-7, and ignite the rally. In a fast and furious 4th quarter, following an Al DelGreco FG, Lomax hit Ernie Jones, to close the gap to 23-17. Then, as the November sun was setting in the west, and on the game, Lomax hit Green in the corner of the endzone on a 9 yard TD pass that will forever live in Cardinals lore!

The Cards and 49ers have been a very evenly matched team over the years. If fact, it wasn’t that long ago that the Big Red actually had the series advantage over the Niners. No, REALLY!

But San Francisco dominated the early 90’s through the early 2000’s, winning 5 straight before the teams later joined divisions and now, of course, play twice a year. It took last years series sweep for the cards to close that gap to within 3 games, which now stands at a 19-16 49ers advantage.

This is a big game for both teams (obligatory cliche’)!

The Cards need to get off to a good start if they want to avoid playing catchup later, as they have a rough first half schedule before things ease up a bit.

This is a game they should win. They have been together longer. They have better players at most ‘skill’ positions. They’re at home. They’ll have just dropped their first Conference Title banner since FDR was in office. They’ll have 65,000 extremely enthusiastic fans providing what is fast becoming one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. And they’re just better overall.

But as they say, this is why they play the games.

Begin Slideshow

Packers-Bears Preview: It All Comes Down to the Packers D

For only the third time in NFL history, perhaps the most storied rivalry in the NFL will be on display in Week 1.

Both the Bears and the Packers made a major change in philosophy during the off-season, and our first look at these changes will come in a game that comes with enough standard hype.

The Bears made one of the biggest trades in franchise history in acquiring what fans hope to be their first franchise QB in too long.

The Packers, after an anemic defense was the biggest reason for the lack of a playoff birth, hired 3-4 guru Dom Capers to provide a new look.

The two teams figure to be two-thirds of a three-team race for the NFC North, and this game is huge for both teams, as both teams have tough Week 2 matchups: Chicago plays the reigning champion Pittsburgh Steelers, and Green Bay faces a resurgent Bengals team, whose offense will test the new Green Bay defense.

So in order to see who starts the season in style, lets take a look at the key matchups.

 

Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago secondary

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers put together a phenomenal season in his first as a full-time starter, throwing for 4,000 yards, racking up 32 total touchdowns, and perhaps most importantly, outperforming Brett Favre’s disappointing season in New York.

Last time the Bears visited Lambeau, Rodgers led an attack that handed Chicago their worst loss since Lovie Smith took over the head-coaching duties four seasons ago (37-3).

His top two receivers, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, are one of the better tandems in the game, and proved it last season by totaling a combined 3,000 yards and 14 touchdowns.

They face a battered Chicago secondary, who may have to start a disappointing Nathan Vasher and inexperienced Trumaine Mcbride, with top CB Charles Tillman questionable.

Safeties Daniel Manning and Kevin Payne are solid but not spectacular. Payne is more of a hard-hitting run-stopper, while Manning is better in coverage. This potentially leaves one half of the field vulnerable to the Packers aerial attack, and Rodgers was very good with the deep ball last year.

 

Packers O-line vs. Bears D-line

Historically, the defensive line has been a strong point for the Bears defense, but an absent pass rush led to problems against the passing game last year.

Fortunately for the Bears, management brought in Rod Marinelli as D-line coach, and he should bring improvement in that area.

The Packers line this year will be characterized by its youth and inexperience, starting Daryn Colledge at LG, Jason Spitz at C, Josh Sitton at RG, and Allen Barbre at RT; none of the four are past their fifth year in the league.

LT Chad Clifton brings a familiar veteran presence to the line, as he’s been a solid staple at the position for years.

Marinelli should have the big names on the Bears line playing better this year, as Mark Anderson, Tommie Harris, and Alex Brown haven’t lived up to the hype they earned in earlier seasons.

The Packers zone blocking scheme will need to be at its best to give Rodgers time to throw and RB Ryan Grant holes to run through.

Overall Packers on Offense: Expect Aaron Rodgers to carry the load for the Packers, and expect a heavy dose of the vertical passing game with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver up the sideline and new weapon Jermichael Finley testing the middle of the field.

Ryan Grant could provide a good complement and keep the defense honest providing the line plays well. There will be points scored.

 

Matt Forte vs Packers Front 7

Rookie RB Matt Forte was the key cog in the Bears offense last season, accounting for a higher percentage of his team’s total yards than any other player in the NFL. The addition of Cutler should only help, keeping defenses from stacking the box against him.

The Packers move to the 3-4, which provides for more creativity with the play-calling and blitz packages.

Because of the Packers secondary, where three out of the four starters have represented Green Bay at the Pro Bowl, including FS Nick Collins and former Heisman Trophy winner Charles Woodson last year, the Bears vertical passing game will be all but nonexistent.

Despite the speed of Devin Hester, the Bears don’t have a receiver capable of keeping the Pack from double teaming Hester, as all the Packer’s corners, including nickelback Tramon Williams, excel in man-to-man coverage.

This puts all the more pressure on Forte to be able to move the ball with the short receiving game and running attack, against which the Packers struggled last year.

Forte will need to be able to find holes to run through and keep the chains moving in order for the offense to keep up with the Packers’ attack.

 

Bears’ TEs against Packers’ LBs

The Bears feature perhaps the best TE duo in the league, with both Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark acting as both receiving threats and capable blockers.

Olsen’s size and speed made him a talking point throughout the preseason, as he looks poised for a breakout year.

On paper, the Packers LB’s are deep, with many players who will be able to rotate in and out. However, for this game they may be at a disadvantage.

Aaron Kampman is inexperienced at pass coverage, as he will be a Demarcus Ware or Shawne Merriman LB, used primarily as a pash rusher.

Nick Barnett, a solid starter for a couple years at MLB, may or may not be fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered last season, and ILB Desmond Bishop has shown well as a pass rushing LB, but he hasn’t stood out in coverage.

Clay Matthews is also recovering from injury, and his rotation partner Jeremy Thompson is a converted DE, so he’s in a similar situation as Kampman.

The best the Packers have to combat the Bears’ TE threats is so far disappointing AJ Hawk and Brandon Chillar. Hawk looks to live up to the hype that came with being the fifth overall pick in 2006.

His transition into the inside, along with help from new LB coach Kevin Greene, should better utilize the speed and skills that made him a standout LB at Ohio State. Chillar is historically a cover LB, who played well in pre-season.

The Packers will need to be able to cover the Bears’ TE if they want to win this game. if the Packers can limit their effectiveness, they will be allowed to bring SS Atari Bigby into the box to contain Matt Forte.

Overall, it will come down to the Packers’ LBs covering the Bears’ TEs (and Forte coming out of the backfield). The Packers offense, one of the best in the league last year, will be good again and will put up points.

If the defense can show improvements from last year, the game will be the Packers’ to lose. If they struggle to transition quickly to the 3-4, the Bears’ weapons will take advantage.

Prediction: Packers 31, Bears 20

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In Praise of Bill: Why Belichick Is the NFL’s Best Coach

In 333 BC, a young king came to the ancient city of Gordium and was presented with an ancient puzzle: the Gordian Knot.

It had been prophesied that the man who untied the knot would become king of Asia. Many men had attempted to undo the knot; all met with failure.

The king took a look at the knot, unsheathed his sword and cut the knot neatly in half.

The young man had contemplated and put to use two facts: one, that it was impossible to untie the knot and two, that fact was irrelevant.

When it comes to problem-solving, many of us are depressingly linear in our thoughts: we see a knot and immediately move to untie it. If that should fail, we often continue with the failed strategy, dashing our heads fruitlessly against the problem.

That’s why Bill Belichick is my favorite coach.

I won’t use the tired “genius” trope here…Belichick himself would likely deny any pretensions to brilliance. I will say Belichick is more likely than any other coach in the NFL to employ unconventional thinking, appearances be damned.

I read an article recently by Joe Posnanski on si.com in which the author went to a Kansas City Royals game with noted baseball thinker Bill James.

In it, James advanced the theory that the reason the Royals seem content to lose conventionally was the desire to maintain the appearances of professionalism.

James said, for example, the Royals could exclusively acquire pitchers who threw under 90 miles per hour, effectively cornering the market on such players.

James said such a plan probably wouldn’t work, but said the reason the Royals refused to do this was because their professional veneer (already dimmed by having a low payroll in a small market) would disappear completely.

So the Royals continue on, trying to play with the strong-armed pitchers no one else wants.

What I admire most about Belichick is his ability to removing such obstacles to winning. Entertainment, fashion, and ego (even, as some critics allege, good sportsmanship) are all sacrificed.

Belichick gives mind-numbing press conferences. He dresses like a college freshman who’s late for an 8 a.m. class. He uses defensive schemes with one down lineman. He takes intentional safeties to improve his field position. He plays wide receivers at nickelback.

He’s not angling for a book deal or a gig in the broadcast booth; he is a man, by all appearances, who is completely devoted to winning.

Take the Richard Seymour trade for example. Belichick traded a popular player, a player he seemed to like, a player who’d been with him for three Super Bowl titles and beyond, and traded him for a 2011 first-round pick from Oakland.

2011.

Why? Well, because there will likely be a rookie salary cap in 2011, and the Raiders will likely continue to play poorly. The Pats, in other words, would end up with a reasonably-priced, very high draft pick.

Who makes moves like that? What coach or general manager is honestly considering the state of their franchise two years down the road. We’ve all seen GMs make panic trades to save their jobs. How many are willing to take a two-year delayed payoff?

There’s also the feature that ran in the NFL preview issue of ESPN: the magazine. Belichick, it is revealed, has his assistant coaches do research projects on the specific areas he wishes to learn more about.

One assistant went above and beyond in his project, creating a system for evaluating personnel that was better than the one the Pats were using at the time. The team adopted it.

Simple? Yes, but (as any person in the real world can tell you) demonstrably good ideas often aren’t adopted. Minefields of ego and bureaucracy stand between any good idea and implementation.

The fact that the team was able to objectively judge a new idea and implement it without hassle is heartening and, I believe, creates an atmosphere conducive to winning.

Certainly, I enjoy watching Belichick because I am a Patriots fan, but I also like to think it is because I like to see the game improve as well.

By the way, that young king at Gordium was named Alexander III of Macedon. He became known as Alexander the Great after conquering much of the world by his 30th birthday.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Carolina Panthers-Philadelphia Eagles Game Guide: Eagles Visit the Bank

The Carolina Panthers will kick off the 2009 season on Sunday with a visit from the Philadelphia Eagles, last year’s NFC runner-up.

Both of these teams met a similar fate last year, falling to the Arizona Cardinals amidst their Cinderella-esque run to the Super Bowl. 

The Panthers and Eagles both head into 2009 with high expectations—Philadelphia more because of its reputation and Carolina because of their 12-4 record a year ago.

Success will not come without hard work for either club.  Both have questions about their defense and will be looking to maintain a high powered offense. 

The Eagles have already lost starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley to a season ending knee injury, while the Panthers lost their monster-sized run stuffing defensive tackle in Ma’ake Kemoeatu to an Achilles injury on the first day of training camp.

Coping with and adjusting to these losses are the focal point of the coaching staffs as they look for a way to replace key cogs in their defensive units. 

The Panthers have not been able to do much in the absence of Kemoeatu with Nick Hayden being the only serviceable option for much of the preseason.  Hayden led a core of inexperienced reserve linemen with two career games played.

The Panthers have since traded an undisclosed draft pick for DT Louis Leonard from Cleveland.  The 6’4″, 325-pound Leonard recorded 25 tackles for the Browns a year ago in 16 games.

Carolina also signed Ra’Shon “Sunny” Harris, a rookie defensive tackle from Oregon after Pittsburgh cut him.

 

Series History

The Eagles hold a 4-2 series lead against the Panthers, and have displayed dominance since Carolina’s win in the 2003 NFC Championship Game. 

Philadelphia won the last meeting between the two teams, a 27-24 victory on Monday Night Football in the 2006 season.

The last time these two teams met at Bank of America Stadium was during the 2003 regular season, with the Eagles winning 25-16.  The overall series at “The Bank” is tied at one game a piece.

 

What To Watch For

Panthers’ D-Line vs. Eagles’ Running Game – The Panthers will find out what kind of success their rotation of reserve defensive tackles will have against one of the elite running backs in the league, when healthy, in Brian Westbrook.

If the Eagles are able to establish the run early, they could wreak havoc on the Panthers’ secondary throughout the game.  Penetration from the front four will be key for Carolina in this game.

 

Philadelphia LB’s vs. Panthers Running Backs – Omar Gaither will start in place of Bradley, and the Philadelphia linebacking corps could be in for a long afternoon against the outstanding double-headed rushing attack of the Panthers.

The Eagles linebackers will see a lot of “Double Trouble”—the nickname given to the combination of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart—because of their uncanny ability to make the first man miss.

 

Donovan McNabb sans-Vick – McNabb will have two games to play without the shadow of Michael Vick behind him.  Although McNabb insists that he is comfortable with Vick as his back up, you can’t help but wonder what a couple of lackluster games might bring him once Vick is reinstated. 

McNabb may be comfortable, but will Philadelphia’s fans be as patient?

 

Jonathan Stewart Returns – After not seeing the field during the preseason, Stewart practiced towards the end of last week and is ready to go for Sunday’s game.  It will be interesting to see how he reacts to the first few hits of the season, seeing as how he hasn’t taken a lick since January.

Williams will continue to get the bulk of the carries, but the burst that Stewart gives off the bench fuels this Panthers offense.

 

Can Brian Westbrook Stay Healthy? – Brian Westbrook is the most dangerous threat on the Eagles roster, but he has been unable to stay healthy in the last couple of years.  Westbrook was limited in practice during the week, and if he isn’t healthy then LeSean McCoy will have to shoulder the load which will cause a noticeable drop in effectiveness.

 

Offensive Rhythm for Carolina – The Panthers need to establish the rhythm of their offense early so as not to leave their defense in positions where they could be easily exposed.  The running game is the anchor of the unit, so chewing up yards on the ground is a must out of the gates.  Once the running game is established, Jake Delhomme will be able to go to work finding Steve Smith and his other receivers.

 

Injury Report

PHILADELPHIA

OUT- OT Shawn Andrews (back), G Todd Herremans (foot), LB Joe Mays (shoulder)

CAROLINA

QUESTIONABLE- S Chris Harris (knee), CB Sherrod Martin (knee)

 

There is nothing like opening day in the NFL, and the Panthers are lucky to be able to open the season at home.  Carolina was undefeated at home last year in the regular season with an 8-0 record. 

There is a lot of negativity and doubt surrounding the Panthers in Charlotte, and a victory against the Eagles would be the easiest way to erase some of those clouds and boost the morale of the fans. 

Regardless of the outcome, the season is upon us.

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NFL Quick Hits: Sep. 12th

Richard Seymour to Report to Oakland

Despite reports suggesting he wouldn’t be reporting to the Raiders, Seymour will be flying to Oakland to meet with his team and coaches, although he is not expected to suit up in Week One.

Seymour expressed the move of his family being more important than football, and simply was working through specifics of the move, both for himself and his family, rather than trying to avoid an arrival in Oakland.

Seymour was quoted, saying that he would be “the guy wearing No. 92 on top of the quarterback.” Well, we shall see.

 

San Diego DA Not Going After Shawne Merriman

The DA was allegedly going to pursue Merriman for two felony charges in connection with an alleged domestic abuse case involving Tila Tequila.

After fully reviewing the case, the DA came to the conclusion that there was “insufficient evidence” to prove a crime was committed.

Merriman will not be charged, and should not receive any type of discipline from the NFL, either.

 

Maurice Jones-Drew Off Jacksonville’s Injury List

It was just a shin bruise.

Still, when the guy was being drafted in the top-five of almost every fantasy football draft, there’s cause for people to hold their breath.

Jones-Drew appears ready to go and at full health, and should start off with a bang against the Colts with the ball all to himself this year.

 

New England’s Wes Welker Questionable For Monday Night

Go Figure. Bill Belichick leaving a player’s status in doubt? No way.

Despite no concrete explanation about Welker’s apparent knee injury, analysts abound are fully confident that he’ll start and play the entire game on Monday night.

It’s probably not a bad idea to use caution for Week One and sit him, though. That is, if you can afford to.

 

For several other key player injury updates and news, catch the rest of this report at www.theredzonereport.com

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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