Fearless Game-by-Game Predictions for the 2009 Oakland Raiders Season

This morning I was beaned in the head by an empty coffee mug cup that Psycho Bob threw at my friend Bob, the retired foot doctor, at the Almaden Roasting Company. Still stunned by the blow, I looked at the Raider’s season schedule on the table. Suddenly, in a flash, it was very clear to me, the results of all of the 2009 regular season Oakland Raiders games.

Included below are the predicted outcomes for all sixteen upcoming Oakland Raiders games. It’s interesting to note that the Raiders’ schedule includes six games against 2008 playoff teams and, as pointed out by my friend Bug, four very winnable games against the Chiefs and Broncos. Not having a clear take on the Richard Seymour situation complicates this projection, but here goes.

Begin Slideshow

Steelers Offensive Line Remains Unsettled After Season Opener

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G Trai Essex was beaten by DT Jason Jones. C Hartwig and T Colon stood side by side while Essex looked on as Roethlisberger was being pursued by the defense and sacked by Jones.

TE Heath Miller misses DT Tony Brown. He and T Max Starks looked confused over which man to block, so Starks touches no one: sack on Roethlisberger by Brown.

These are only two examples of what happened in the first half of the Steelers-Titans game last Thursday night.

Although the offensive line started to settle down in the second half, it was for the passing game not the run.

The run was stuffed, not just by the Titans defense, but also by offensive coordinator Bruce Arians himself.

Choice: let’s pass.

In the passing game, Roethlisberger completed 33 out of 43 attempts for 363 passing yards, yielding one touchdown and two interceptions.

While the running game with Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, and Roethlisberger produced 23 attempts for 36 total yards and zero touchdowns.

60 percent of the offense used the pass, while the running game yielded 1.8 yards per carry.

There is nothing wrong with the passing game early in the season; the weather is still pretty good.

What happens in October and November when it rains, or December when it snows?

We all know what happens to a passing game in that kind of weather.

I realize that it’s the first game of the season, but the offensive line played poorly with the running game.

I realize there were some changes, Max Starks moved left, and Trai Essex is the place of Darnell Stapleton, but the offensive line played poorly.

I realize Roethlisberger scrambled out of the pocket quite a bit in the first half, but the offensive line played poorly.

This is the second year this line is playing together, and there is a total of 28 years of line experience in Essex, Starks, Hartwig, Colon, and Kemoeatu.

What seems to be the problem?

Deion Sanders, NFL Access (after the Steelers-Titans game):

“Taking a page from Jaime Dukes, our resident offensive genius, the (Steeler) offensive line does not have great feet. When defenses start to move them in the front, they can’t maneuver, they can’t dance like the big fellow said, with opposing defenders.

“Because at times, Big Ben has all day back there in the pocket to throw, then there are other times when he’s blitzing and they’re not picking up the blitz because of their footwork.”

Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: “Tunch Ilkin will tell you it’s all in the hands and footwork….”

If footwork could be an issue, then we can ascertain there is an issue with fundamentals. If there is issue with fundamentals, the finger should point to the coach, and that would be offensive line coach Larry Zierlein.

When Mike Tomlin was hired to replace Bill Cowher as Head Coach, he retained some of Cowher’s coaches and had to replace those who left.

Tomlin needed a special teams coach to replace Kevin Spencer, who went to Arizona with Ken Whisenhunt. He hired Bob Ligashesky as coordinator, with Amos Jones as assistant.

Ligashesky and Jones collectively have proven their quality by building and developing a top notch special teams unit whose accomplishment in 2008 ranked 1st in kickoff coverage and 4th in punt coverage from 14th and 16th in 2007.

Defensive backs coach Ray Horton replaced former Steeler defensive back and coach Darren Perry. Horton, a former Cincinnati Bengal, coached by Dick Le Beau back in the ’80s, is partially responsible for coaching the No. 1 defense in the passing game.

Tomlin hired Randy Fichter as receivers coach and Kirby Wilson as running backs coach (replacing legend Dick Hoak). Finally, he replaced Russ Grimm (who accepted the line coach job with Ken Whisenhunt) with Larry Zierlein.

The state of the offensive line is in the hands of Larry Zierlein.

Zierlein has been offensive line coach three years and yet the first game of the regular season, three years later, we see no improvement in the offensive line.

Is Jamie Dukes right? Is Tunch Ilkin right? Is it bad footwork? Is it technique?

Isn’t that the responsibility of the coach and his staff to teach fundamentals, technique? Isn’t that the purpose of training camp to learn fundamentals, technique?

What do we know about Zierlein, other than him sending offensive email just weeks after taking the coordinator job?

Zierlein is a journeyman coach, with 13 jobs at the high school, college and pro level since 1970. He even tried his hand as an arena football coach in the 1980s.

At the University of Cincinnati, Zierlein was the offensive line coordinator (1997-2000).

Cincinnati had gone 47 years without a bowl appearance.

Then in 1997 with an 8-4 record, the Bearcats played in the inaugural Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, Idaho.

That was followed by 2-9 and 3-8 record in ’98 and ‘99.

In his final year, things improved, as the Bearcat rushing attack helped pave the way for a 7-5 record and bowl berth.

Tomlin was added to the staff as the defensive backs coach in 1999-2000 (Here’s a connection).

The Bearcats made three straight bowl appearances in 2000, 2001 and 2002—the first two in the Motor City Bowl in Detroit and the third in the New Orleans Bowl without Zierlein.

Here is another interesting tidbit:

Zierlein’s first coaching job in the NFL was not until 2001 with Butch Davis and the Cleveland Browns.

In charge of the offensive line until 2004, Zierlein worked from 2001-2003 with offensive coordinator Bruce Arians (another connection).

Here’s how his offenses fared during that time:

	Points Scored/Game	Rushing Yards/Game	Passing Yards/Game	Sacks Allowed
2001(7-9)	17.8 (25th)	84.4 (31st)	175.1 (28th)	51   (4th)
2002(9-7)	21.5 (19th)	100.9 (23rd)	213.3 (18th)	35 (19th)
2003(5-11)	15.9 (29th)	104.4 (20th)	177.1 (25th)	40 (13th)
2004(4-12)	17.25 (27th)	103.6 (23rd)	176.5 (25th)	41 (11th)

In 2006, as the Buffalo Bills assistant offensive line coach, the Bills finished 7-9, with the 23rd-ranked scoring offense.

The Bills’ line surrendered 47 sacks (T-7th most), and the passing game and rushing game were ranked 28th and 27th respectively, in terms of yards per game.

Because of the Steelers porous offensive line, Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked 97 times since Zierlein was hired.

The reality is, Larry Zierlein has never coached an offensive line that paved the way for a successful NFL offense.

It seems that not all of Zierlein’s record is tarnished.

As a college coach, Zierlein was successful with the now defunct Southwestern Conference, coaching the offensive line at University of Houston from 1978-1986.

His teams won two conference titles in his first two years on campus, finishing 1978 ranked No. 10 and 1979 No. 5, and one more in 1984. 

Then Zierlein spent one year coaching the Washington Commandos, then, two fruitless seasons in New Orleans coaching the Tulane Green Wave, followed by a two-year stint in the World League of American Football.

It should be noted that the two years that he was coaching the NY/NJ Knights of the WLAF, were the first two of the league’s existence.

At Tulane in 1995-1996, he and Head Coach Buddy Teevens were dismissed following the ’96 season.

Tommy Bowden took over the Tulane job in 1997, and immediately turned the program around, winning seven games with many of Teeven’s and Zierlein’s players, followed by a 12-0 season in 1998.

Although I have painted a bleak picture of Larry Zierlein, I cannot place full blame on his shoulders.

Zierlein is not out in the trenches playing this game.

As I stated before, there is a combined 28 years of offensive line experience playing this season, so why it that the performance is so is emaciated?

The line is getting beaten. They seem confused about their assignments. They are not finishing blocks. They are allowing the defense to roam free at Roethlisberger.

It doesn’t help when Roethlisberger prefers to fan out of the pocket and hold onto the ball much too long to make a play.

That puts stress on the line to secure the pocket. The longer he holds, the more the linemen will be caught for holding penalties or getting beaten on blocks.

Did you notice the chaos that ensues when Roethlisberger scrambles?

It’s like little kids running around in circles chasing each other and not catching a darn thing.

Its one thing to get beaten, but it’s another thing when the linesmen are having mental mistakes and getting beaten.

We got a preview of this during the pre-season.

In the four pre-season games, the Steelers amassed 30 penalties for 234 yards which averages to 7.8 penalties per game.

7.8 penalties in a game during the regular season would equate to losses.

The line is self-inflicting, and the bleeding needs to stop.

When Zierlein became line coach in 2007, several of the linemen were quoted to say he was not the boss.

It seems that G Alan Faneca was looked to for coaching and direction by the younger players.

Max Starks said. “Larry (Zierlein) even looked to him (Faneca).

“It was one of those things where Coach Zierlein came in and he was more like a moderator and kind of an intermediary guy. Alan was the one that kind of guided everybody.”

But in terms of actual coaching as it relates to terminology and technique, Faneca, Starks said, was “kind of adamant about still doing things the way he’d been doing them.“

The younger linemen listened to Zierlein’s lingo but used Faneca’s terminology and what was lost in the translations at times was clarity regarding who should be blocked and how.

Faneca was the leader of the offensive line and before he left, the Steelers were third in the league in rushing, and they gave up fewer sacks (47) than they did in 2006 (49)

Now, Faneca is gone, and it’s Larry’s offensive line now.

According to Starks, the line speaks a universal language, one of being “unified” and “simplified” in the approach up front.

Continuity and time is the key. Well that was a couple of years ago. What about now?

Where is the continuity? They have had a couple of years and a Super Bowl under their belt.

This should be a Super Bowl-caliber offensive line, not a newly-created one.

There was one good thing that I witnessed during the Steelers-Titans game: the line did pass-protect during the second half.

If the line can provide pass protection for a quarterback who prefers to run out of the pocket and hold onto the ball long enough to make a play, they should be sound blockers to create running lanes for the running backs.   

I must add that the line is not solely responsible to establishing the running game.

It is also important to have a tight end who can block and a fullback to lead.

That was sorely missed after TE Mark Bruener and FB Dan Kreider were released. They were not replaced.

The Steelers drafted TE David Johnson who seems to be more an H-Back, a tight end/fullback tweener.

CBS Sportsline reported Johnson has taken advantage of TE Sean McHugh’s injury in the battle for the third tight end spot.

According to Tomlin, “David is taking advantage of his extra snaps, and he’ll get more snaps this week.” “To this point, he has represented himself well and really has our attention.”

It had become especially important since McHugh is out for the season on injured-reserve with a knee injury.

Steelers also drafted RB Frank Summers, who could see playing time as a fullback.

And finally, the Steelers may be looking for depth at tight end, working out free-agent Bear Pascoe this past Friday.

Scout.com has confirmed this through a league source.

Pascoe was believed in league circles to be the best blocking tight end available for the 2009 draft.

The former Fresno State University Bulldog was selected by the San Francisco 49ers in the sixth-round.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Keys to Dallas Cowboys’ Season

After a disappointing end to a 2008 season that began with Super Bowl aspirations, the Dallas Cowboys did a lot to change the culture of their locker room.

 

The “addition-by-subtraction” strategy that led the team to part ways with major contributors such as Terrell Owens, Tank Johnson, Zach Thomas, Anthony Henry, and Chris Canty led to one of the quietest training camps in recent memory.

 

The 2009 season has started with much lower expectations for this bunch.

 

Considering the recent late-season nose dives and lose of so much talent, many “experts” regard the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles to be prohibitive favorites in the NFC and leave the Cowboys and Washington Redskins as afterthoughts in the division.

 

Many analysts shy away from the Cowboys because they just are not sure what to expect.

 

Here are five questions that will determine how far Dallas can go this season.

 

 

1. Offensive Line depth

The Cowboys’ starting offensive line is one of the best in the league. However, they are also older, and the drop off between the starters and the second unit is significant.

The starting line is an average of 31 years old and not a single starter is under the age of 30.

The best player on the second unit is probably journeyman Montrae Holland. Doug Free is a former fourth-round draft pick that was inactive for the first 13 weeks of last season.

The Cowboys had so much faith in Cory Procter last year that they signed Holland to take over for Procter following the injury to Kyle Kosier. Recently signed Duke Preston is a former fourth-round pick that both Buffalo and Green Bay have already given up on. Pat McQuistan is a former seventh-round draft pick.

Recently, injuries to Kyle Kosier and Marc Colombo have spelled disaster for the high-powered Dallas attack, and it appears that this year presents the same scenario.

For this offense and Romo to avoid another late season stall, the offensive line has to stay intact.

 

2. Cornerback rotation

Probably the biggest position battle at this training camp was between Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins for the starting cornerback spot that belonged to Anthony Henry.

Scandrick, a former fifth round pick, seems to have outplayed former first round pick Mike Jenkins, but the coaching staff has decided to rotate the two young corners instead of picking one over the other.

Rotations are a tricky situation. In football, it seems that defining roles for players usually works better than leaving a situation in limbo, which appears to be what the coaching staff has done in this case.

Dallas needs better secondary play. Whether Jenkins or Scandrick is on the field, the coverage has to improve. Adding a veteran safety in Greg Sensabaugh will help. The coaching staff must be sure to put these two young corners in a position to succeed.

The result of this experiment will go a long way in determining how effective Dallas’ defense will be this season.

 

3. Focus

The biggest hurdle this team has faced since the departure of Bill Parcells is its ability to stay focused.

When their playoff chances were on the line last season, the got manhandled by Philadelphia 44-6.

They have shown a lack of ability to handle physical football teams. Brandon Jacobs pounded Dallas relentlessly in Week nine. Pittsburgh hung around and eventually wore down the Cowboys. Baltimore manhandled Dallas in the last game ever in Texas Stadium. Even the lowly St. Louis Rams pushed the Cowboys around as Steven Jackson ran for 160 yards.

The idea behind much of the offseason roster purge appeared to be getting rid of distractions. As mentioned earlier in the article, the team gave up a lot of production in hopes of ridding itself of the negativity and divisiveness that may be the cause of the mental gaffs this team has faced.

With the talent on this roster, getting over the mental hurdles is the number one factor that will determine whether this team ever matches its achievements with its talent.

 

4. Sticking with the run

Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett seemed to abandon the run at critical times during the 2008 season.

The most obvious time was in the Week four loss to the Washington Redskins where Marion Barber finished with eight rushing attempts.

The injuries to Felix Jones and Marion Barber helped hamper the rushing attack, but Tashard Choice has shown himself to be a solid all-around back.

Running the ball will depend on some of the other issues mentioned in this column.

The health of the offensive line will help whoever is running the ball, as will the returns of Jones and Barber. Running the ball will also take some of the pressure off of the shoulders of Tony Romo and the questions at wide receiver. Finally, a strong running game will only come from a team that is physical and mentally strong.

This team has to decide it will run the ball at will. They have the skill and size to do it.

 

5. Spreading the ball around.

Finally, Romo has to get back to distributing the ball.

One of the justifications for getting rid of T.O. was that he required touches to stay in the game. If he was not involved in the game early, then he faltered in big situations later.

Not having him will allow Romo to fully take control of the offense. He can hit Witten without wondering what Owens will say about it. Roy Williams has shown himself to be a quality receiver, and much quieter than Owens.

Crayton, Austin, and Hurd need to step up to fill the void in production left by Owens, but this offense is loaded with weapons.

Aside from Witten and the receivers, Marion Barber had 52 catches last season. A healthy Felix Jones has proven to be a big play waiting to happen on screen plays this preseason. Backup tight end Martellus Bennett has also proven to be a receiving threat.

Defenses should not be able to match up with that many weapons on the field at the same time.

 

How the Cowboys answer each of these questions will determine whether they end the season in disappointment again, or if they can get over the hump and end Dallas’ playoff drought.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL: Regression to the Mean, Sample Size, and In-Season Projections

What if I told you that Adrian Peterson isn’t as good as his stats say?

My reasoning is the Curse of the Leading Rusher. You’ve never heard of it before, but it’s an obvious trend. Since 1980, the NFL’s leading rusher has seen his rushing yards fall by 489 yards and his YPC by almost half a yard just one season later. Only six of the 31 leading rushers even increased their rushing yards the following season, and nine had less than 1,000 yards.

Convinced? You shouldn’t be. Their decline is nothing more than regression to the mean and a lack of sample size. Let me explain.

Regression to the Mean

Regression to the mean—also known as the law of averages—is the phenomenon that explains why extreme seasons far from the average (such as a passer rating over 100 or below 70) tend to be closer to the mean the following year.

It’s why we see the leading rusher put up worse numbers the next year, why quarterbacks don’t put up 40 touchdowns in back-to-back years, and, yes, why the Curse of 370 is a myth. Of course, regression to the mean also affects those on the bottom end of the spectrum—Brett Favre won’t throw 22 interceptions again, partly from regression and partly because his past numbers have always been better than last year’s.

Which brings us to the next principle: True score theory. True score theory states that a player’s observed performance is a combination of his true talent level and random error (or “luck,” in layman’s terms). Any time we see a player’s production in a certain time frame (one year, three years, or 10 years, for instance), we expect that his actual true talent level is somewhere in between the observed performance and the league average.

Let’s look at an example. I split all quarterbacks since 1980 into four quartiles based on their fantasy points per attempt, such that the top passers went into one group and the worst went into another. I found the average fantasy points per attempt for each quartile, and then compared that number to the group’s collective next-season value.

The graph below shows this with fantasy points per attempt divided by the average to create an “index value” (where 1.00 is average).

As the blue lines indicate, the quartiles regressed 63 percent to the mean as a whole. In comparison, should Drew Brees regress that much this season, he would have a 50-point drop in fantasy points, which would’ve put him at No. 8 among passers last season. (Of course, that’s assuming no one else would regress.)

I know what you’re thinking. That’s one year of data; of course they’ll decline. Yet regression to the mean even occurs for running backs with three straight 1,000-yard seasons: Those 99 backs averaged over 1,340 yards each of their first three years—with a yards-per-carry rate between 4.33 and 4.36 each year—but they had just 1,161 yards with 4.21 YPC in the next year; almost one-third (32) had less than 1,000 yards to boot.

In other words, those 99 rushers regressed about 45 percent to the mean, which may seem large, but my calculations would’ve predicted a 42 percent regression. That said, their regression was 18 percent less than those of the quarterback example above.

The more sample size we have, the less regression to the mean there is and the more certain we are that observed performance is close to a player’s true talent level.

And that brings us to the next topic.

 

Sample Size, Past Performance, and Mid-season Projections

Most fantasy football players create their own set of rankings usually based on hours of research and trends. So, explain to me why their prognostications should change drastically halfway through the season?

It’s not just Average Joes that do this either. ESPN’s Christopher Harris, for example, ranked Peyton Manning as his No. 2 quarterback in the preseason, but after Week Seven he had dropped Manning all the way down to No. 7.

Manning was 13th in fantasy points (with a quarterback rating just over 80) after seven weeks, but in the final 10 weeks of the season, he was the No. 4 quarterback and had a 105.2 rating, highest among qualifiers.

The moral of the story: Half a season is not enough to warrant a major change in your preseason rankings!

Curious, I went about calculating the change in true talent for players who had a considerable difference in production during the first half of the season compared to their preseason projection. I’m only looking at overachievers, but these numbers also hold for first-half disappointments.

I chose one player at each skill position whose 2009 FEIN projection was equal to a low-end starter in fantasy leagues (Matt Ryan, Larry Johnson, and Eddie Royal) and assumed they were to exceed their preseason projection by 15 percent in the first half (yet with no difference in projected attempts or catches).

Then, based on their projected first-half attempts, I calculated the amount of regression for each player: With 250 first-half pass attempts, for instance, Ryan would be expected to regress about two-thirds back to his preseason forecast in terms of yards per attempt. (I regress to their preseason projection as a shortcut to calculating a whole new set of projections.)

The results indicate that, with 15 percent higher production than expected in the first half of the season, Ryan would only perform 5.4 fantasy points above his preseason projection in the second half, compared to 2.7 for Johnson—including receiving numbers—and 3.4 for Royal.

To further justify the results, the full-season difference between Ryan’s preseason and mid-season projections would not have moved him up a spot in last year’s rankings. (The 10.8-point difference—5.4 doubled—would have increased his 2008 fantasy points from 196 to 206.8, but he would have ranked No. 13 among passers either way.) For Johnson, his outburst would have moved him up just one spot, from 29 to 28, and Royal would have moved two spots to No. 17.

At what point should you adjust your estimate of a player’s true talent? Well, if they overachieved by 15 percent for the first 16 weeks, Ryan’s updated projection would be 16.3 points higher over a full season than his preseason projection (which wouldn’t have moved him up a spot last year), Johnson’s forecast would be 8.4 points higher than expected (a two-spot jump), and Royal’s 9.3-point disparity would have moved him from No. 19 to No. 15.

As a general rule, it takes 21 games for a quarterbacks’ fantasy points to regress 50 percent to their previous projection, as well as 29 to 30 games for a running back and 13 to 14 games for a wide receiver. (The values for quarterbacks and running backs were found assuming there wasn’t a newly calculated projection after 16 games.)

In other words, only for wide receivers should you weigh current-season production more than their preseason projection at any point in the season. That doesn’t mean you should disregard current performance, only that it shouldn’t have as much weight as it usually does when you make trades or waiver-wire pickups.

Remember: If you have a player like Peyton Manning, for whom we have years of stats, then in no way, shape, or form should your opinion of him change after half a season, much less 20 games. Sample size is not your friend, and neither is regression to the mean.

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This article can be seen at FeinSports.com and FFWritersWithHair.com.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Bears-Packers: Offensive and Defensive Match-ups

Sunday Night Football, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis.
The line: Packers by 3 ½. Over/under: 46 ½.
This is the 178th meeting in the NFL’s primordial rivalry. They started throwing punches in this series in the 1920s and it has seen everything from William “The Refrigerator” Perry to Brett Favre beating the Bears in a driving ice storm on Halloween Night at Soldier Field when Chicago retired the jersey numbers of Gale Sayers and Dick Butkus. Coach Mike Ditka’s teams dominated the 1980s in this series much like Favre’s teams dominated former coach Dave Wannstedt’s Bears. It’s gone the Bears’ way more in recent years, with six wins in the last eight games. Chicago leads the series 91-80-6.
Here’s how this one shakes down.

Begin Slideshow

Whitaker’s 2009 NFL Season Predictions

AFC

AFC East
1. New England Patriots – 12-4
The offense is great, and the defense will have more trouble than it wants because Richard Seymour and Mike Vrabel are now out west.

2. New York Jets – 10-6
Basically the 2009 Jets, are the 2008 Ravens, just in different colors.

3. Miami Dolphins – 9-7
They over-achieved last year, and this year Tom Brady is healthy.

4. Buffalo Bills – 3-13
The Bills got TO!  The Bills got TO!  Ya so?  Nice rhyme don’t cha think?

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – 10-6
The Champs are trying to break their own record of six Super Bowls, they might just do it, just not this year.

2. Baltimore Ravens – 10-6
This may be my favorite team in the NFL (outside of the Niners of course), cuz they play my kind of football, smash mouth football, problem for the Ravens is the Steelers are still a better football team.

3. Cincinnati Bengals – 5-11
This team has talent, it’s just that talent is mostly too young (or in rookie Andre Smith’s case too lazy and fat).

4. Cleveland Browns – 2-14
Man-genius is town, and by December he’ll have a mighty big frown, another nice rhyme if I do say so myself.

AFC South
1. Houston Texans – 11-5
This is the year the Texans break out, the main/key reason No. 8 (Matt Schaub) stays healthy.

2. Tennessee Titans – 10-6
Yeah Albert Haynesworth is gone, but Tony Brown and Jason Jones didn’t go anywhere.

3. Indianapolis Colts – 10-6
They still got Peyton Manning, and they still have absolutely no talent in the teeth of their defense.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – 7-9
One of my favorite NFL Bruins (just might be my favorite, Jarrad Page, Dave Ball, being possible others) finally gets to prove midgets can run the ball at the world’s highest level of football, too bad his team plays in the football world’s best division.

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers – 13-3
As long as the faces of the Charger O and D stay healthy (LT and Lights Out), the ceiling will remain sky high for San Diego in ’09.

2. Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Raider Nation can single-handedly thank Josh McDaniels for taking the role of laughing stock of the AFC West.

3. Denver Broncos – 5-11
So in their Head Coaches’ mind Kyle Orton (and Matt Cassel) is a better spread quarterback then Jay Cutler, or did I miss something here?

4. Kansas Chiefs – 2-14
The Chiefs best skill player will be double covered just about every sunday (minus those times he’s trying to be locked up by corners like Nnamdi Asomugha), well that’s surely disturbing, and who’s replacing Tony Gonzelez, oh Sean Ryan, yeah um, how many top five picks in a row is KC shooting for, anybody think they can extend this run till the 2015 NFL draft?

1 Chargers
2 Pats
3 Texans
4 Steelers
5 Titans
6 Jets

AFC Title Game
Steelers 20, Jets 14

Divisional
Jets @ Chargers – Jets 19, Chargers 17
Steelers @ Pats – Steelers 24, Pats 20

Wild Card
Jets @ Texans – Jets 24, Texans 20
Titans @ Steelers – Steelers 21, Titans 9

NFC

NFC East
1. New York Giants – 13-3
I still don’t care Plaxico Burress isn’t playing for them, when you have a possible history making defense you don’t need Plax, especially since they have mind as well have a Cadilac Escalade as their starting RB and Eli Manning is now actually a half way decent quarterback.

2. Washington Redskins 11-5
Jason Campbell doesb’t have to be the answer (at least this year), all they need to do is do what the Giants do, run the ball and play defense.

3. Philadelphia Eagles – 10-6
So the Eagles, still can’t convert on third and short, and their defense is probably the most overrated in the NFL, um that’s gonna be a problem when you play the three other teams from the NFC West twice a year.

4. Dallas Cowboys – 7-9
Yes TO’s departure will lower Wade Phillips and more importantly Tony Romo’s blood pressure, but it’s also gonna make their passing offense 10 plus touchdowns worse, oh wait they have Roy E. Williams a guy who has less touchdowns in his career than TO has over the last three years.

NFC Central
1. Minnesota Vikings – 10-6
This is a ridiculously talented team, who supposedly had one position with supposedly no talent, that position of course being at quarterback, now they have Brett Favre, so…the Vikes will do what they do run the ball more then they throw it, and when they’re in a third and five the soon to be 40-yeard-old QB will earn his $12 million a year contract.

2. Green Bay Packers – 10-6
Funny thing about this team people say they didn’t have a defense last year, yeah you wouldn’t have a D either if your best shut down corner played with a lacerated spleen after missing most of the first half of the year, and your starting middle linebacker wasn’t so lucky missing the rest of the season with a torn ACL, now they get both guys back, along with BJ Raji and Dom Capers, yeah Bear and Viking fans I’m scared too.

3. Chicago Bears – 9-7
After more than a half a decade Chi-Town finally has another franchise QB, sad thing is he has no wide reciever to throw a pass too, or a defense legit enough to be called the Monsters of the Midway.

4. Detroit Lions – 4-12
The goal for the Lions this year—win a game, it I’ll be a long wait since they’re first six games have them on the road against the Saints, Bears, and Packers, and hosting the likes of the Vikes, the team from the nations capital, and the reigning Super Bowl Champs.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints – 11-5
Enter Gregg Williams and Darren Sharper, the Saints better hope the legal system doesn’t have Will Smith and Charles Grant go out the exit doors for those four weeks everyone’s talkin’ bout, or it won’t matter how many points Drew Brees and company can put up.

2. Carolina Panthers – 8-8
The dumbest playoff quarterback in NFL history is a year older and the Panthers’ best run stopping D-Lineman is out for the year, division to New Orleans by default, but hey Panther fans you should have done what you were supposed to and drafted Joe Flacco.

Oh but you need a running back as good as J-Stew to back up the most underrated player in the NFL, rite I mean seriously draft a guy who should only be getting 7-10 carries a game, yeah that makes sense my fault, I’m trippin’.

3. Atlanta Falcons – 7-9
Yes this offense is gonna ball and ball even harder then they did last year, but who’s gonna stop the other team from scoring?  T

he sad truth is GM Rich McKay and company cut too many players on D in the offseason (ie Michael Boley and Keith Brooking [I don’t care how old the man is he can still tackle like a mo-fo]), and 80 tackle (from ’08, Brooking had 102 last year for those keeping score at home) Mike Peterson (who’s switching LB positions, by the way) and a rookie safety (who is already hurt) is not gonna cut it.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 3-13
The media calls it a youth movement, the Bucs call it a culture change, I call it lack of NFL talent.

NFC West
1. San Francisco 49ers – 10-6
If this team was in the NFC East, or even the NFC North, they wouldn’t make the playoffs, but since they play in the NFC West they just so happen to now be the best team.

2. Seattle Seahawks – 8-8
They have no O-line (and a 33 year old quarterback who always seems like he’s injured to try to protect), and no secondary, 8-8 sounds about rite.

3. Arizona Cardinals – 7-9
This team overachieved and got ridiculously lucky last year in the playoffs, too bad this year they aren’t even the 2nd best team in their division to even have a chance to get that lucky again in next January’s playoffs.

4. St. Louis Rams – 1-15
Steve Spagnuolo reminds me of Jimmy Johnson, in the sense that he is a very talented coach, who has inherited a horrible, horrible football team in his first season as a NFL Head Coach.

1 Giants
2 Saints
3 Vikes
4 Niners
5 DC
6 Philly

NFC Title Game
Vikes @ Giants – Giants 14, Vikes 6

Divisional
D.C. @ Giants – Giants 27, D.C. 12
Vikes @ Saints – Vikes 27, Saints 24

Wild-Card
Eagles @ Vikings – Vikes 20, Eagles 16
D.C. @ Niners – D.C. 17, Niners 10

Super Bowl XLIV
Giants 20, Steelers 7
Super Bowl 44 MVP – Justin Tuck

NFL MVP – Drew Brees
Defensive Player Of The Year – Mario Williams
Rookie Of The Year – Aaron Curry
Coach Of The Year – Norv Turner

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Miami Dolphins Vs. Atlanta Falcons: Sleeper Game Of The Week?

[Channing Crowder tossing Vick down-Gotta love that one!]

Anyway, is it just me or does this game have the potential to be one of the better games to watch this weekend, even for you non Dolphins or Falcons fans? Two solid teams who were the comeback stories of 2008 after both had horrible 2007 seasons.

The Falcons’ main problem is their ability to stop the run, so for the Dolphins Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams it becomes even more important. They will also break out some wildcat plays most likely because of this, which is always exciting. I don’t think there will be new ones, I think those will be saved. They’ll probably figure the base plays should be good enough.

The Falcons offense should be stronger this year and it will be interesting to see how Ryan does in his first game of the season. Will he start slow under pressure from Joey Porter and Jason Taylor?

The Dolphins rarely made mistakes last year setting an NFL record. They’ll need to continue that in the rocking Georgia Dome, and try to keep the Atlanta offense off the field. The Dolphins need to have the possession advantage.

All of the “experts” are overlooking this game, but it should be a great one to watch, with two fun teams playing against each other. Possible 2010 Super Bowl preview? [or 2009-you never know.]

I don’t think there is a clear favorite, but of course I have to go with Miami. Though I won’t be too surprised if Atlanta takes it either.

So, take a break from The Beatles albums/game and watch this under-appreciated football game. I actually forgot there was an NFL game on Thursday because of The Beatles. Who would have thought that would happen in 2009? Gotta love it.

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Monday Night Football: Patriots-Bills Preview and Prediction

Editor’s Note: AJ Kaufman’s weekly MNF coverage on MSF is sponsored by Sadler’s Smokehouse, a producer of premium pit smoked meats that are best described by Sadler’s slogan: Legendary since 1948.

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• Learn more about Sadler’s great smokehouse products: Sadler’s Smokehouse Wesbite
  
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And now, on with the preview of this week’s Bills-Patriots matchup on Monday Night Football.

 

 

Monday Night Football Week 1 Preview

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

 

Before we dive into analyzing the details of the first Monday Night Football game of 2009, here are the particulars to get you ready for kickoff:

• Bills-Patriots Date: Monday, September 14th
• Bills-Patriots TV & Kickoff Time: 7:00 ET on ESPN
• Bills-Patriots Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxboro
• Bills-Patriots Announcers: Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden
• Bills-Patriots Point Spread: NE -10.5
• Bills-Patriots Over-Under: 47.5
• StubHub: Patriots-Bills MNF tickets as low as $95
• StubHub: all 2009 New England Patriots tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 Buffalo Bills tickets
• StubHub: all 2009 NFL tickets

Patriots-Bills Analysis

 

Trent Edwards and the Bills offense is the big question mark on the shores of Lake Ontario. Last year, people said that Edwards didn’t have the right personnel around him, but now that they’ve added Terell Owens, does Edwards still have any excuses?

Unfortunately, he probably does, as the new receiver does not solve the Bills’ offensive line issues.

Therefore, Buffalo’s potential season-long question might be—along with the usual questions of T.O. co-existing with his quarterback—will Edwards prosper even with Owens when he still has very little time to throw?

And will Owens “accept” a team that can’t produce consistently on offense?

Oh, and mixed into all this uncertaintly, how will budding star Lee Evans accept being relegated to a secondary role?

To compound that, the team has other self-inflicted hurdles: their offensive coordinator Turk Schoenert was fired during the preseason; Owens’ toe is nicked up; and, 1,000-yard running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended through the end of September.

So, while the Bills may prove decent as the season moves along, a prime-time game versus Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and a Patriot team juiced up after a playoff-less season is not the ideal opener.

Something that could help out the Bills would be the Patriots missing a key ingredient in their impressive aerial assault. Tom Brady may be back, but he could be without his most reliable possession receiver Wes Welker. The 100-catch man is dealing with a knee injury that is threatening his availability for Monday. 

Obviously the loss of Welker would hurt the Patriots, but did I mention that Tom Brady is back?

Despite its dynastic success this decade led by the Belichick-Brady duo, New England is like any other team at this early stage of the season and has unknowns just like the Bills do. For example, though it’s believed that the very recent loss of Richard Seymour is mitigated by the Pats’ great depth on the defensive line, it surely is not a given that a 2011 first round pick was worth losing a five-time Pro Bowler who is not yet 30.

Of course, Tom Brady’s knee is another major issue, especially in his first real test on Monday night. He looked good in the preseason, but generally quarterbacks coming off knee injuries start slowly (see Palmer, Carson; Manning, Peyton).

Laurence Maroney, injured nearly all of 2008, needs to return to his 2006-2007 form in order to be the top back. If he’s not, however, New England has capable backups in veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris, as well as second-year man BenJarvus Green-Ellis (likely as a goal-line back).

Patriots-Bills Prediction

 

The Bills only scored 10 points combined in their two meetings with New England last season (both losses). It might be semi-tight in the first half, but the talent level between the two teams, plus the home atmosphere on opening night with the national TV audience, will give the Pats a fairly comfortable triumph and cover.

**********

* – Terrell Owens photo credit: Football Nation Blogs

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Eagles Star Players Sheldon Brown & Quintin Mikell Hang With The People

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Eagles fans call him “The Hit Man” from the damage he puts on opposing team ball carriers…just ask Saints running back Reggie Bush or Rams running back, Steven Jackson. 

They both know the wrath of Eagles star corner back No. 24 Sheldon Brown. In fact …Sheldon’s tremendous collision with Reggie Bush in 2006 made “Hit of Year” and was captured on the front cover of Sports Illustrated.

And how about his partner in crime No. 27 Quintin Mikell?  Quintin has emerged from the shadows of Brain Dawkins to grab his first all-pro selection and led the team in tackles in 2008. 

Sheldon and Quintin both are going to be heavily relied on this season to step up and be leaders, not just on the defense but with the entire team.  With Jon Runyon, Tre Thomas and Brian Dawkins now gone in Free Agency, Sheldon & Quintin become senior members of this team.

Like all other Eagles fans…you love defense.  You grew up on Reggie White, Jerome Brown, Wes Hopkins, Eric Allen, Seth Joyner, Andre Waters, Troy Vincent, Jeremiah Trotter and Brian Dawkins. 

Sheldon and Quintin are the new generation of big time Eagles players.  As these two star players share the spotlight…the questions will become more prevalent.  Who are these guys?  What are they about?

Sure you root for them every week, wait for them to make a big play and wear their jersey religiously but according to sports radio 610WIP you now have a chance to actually hang with these two guys for two hours every Monday throughout the 2009 football season.

Over the years player shows have become immensely popular allowing the average guy a chance to get up and personal with some of their favorite players and get a “snap shot” of what it is like to be a professional football player on and off the field. 

Sheldon and Quintin will be making a weekly appearance on Monday nights at Kaminski’s Sports Bar and Grill located in Cherry Hill New Jersey which is centrally located for fans in the Philadelphia region or South Jersey. 

Quintin and Sheldon will be fielding questions from the fans, signing autographs and taking pictures every Monday from 6pm to 8pm.  Jason Myrtetus the 610WIP Assistant Program Director and weekend on-air talent will head up the show as Emcee.

So if you have questions that have been eating you all off season like… “Why didn’t they just give Dawkins the money? Or why didn’t they offer Runyon a contract? or maybe something simple like…

What does it feels like when you slam into something as big as Brandon Jacobs?  For more info log onto Kaminskisbarandgrill.com

 

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NFL Week 1 Preview | Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Matt and Zac Snyder of Bleacher Report and mittensportsreport.com break down this week’s Detroit Lions football match-up.

When the Lions have the ball…

Detroit’s passing attack vs. New Orleans’ defensive backs

Zac says: On one hand, Matthew Stafford used the preseason to show off the physical gifts that made him the first overall pick. On the other hand, he threw a pick in each game. This season will be a learning process for the team’s largest investment. If Stafford can develop a solid connection with Calvin Johnson while not ignoring his other targets, the offense could have some success. That being said, starting a rookie in week one is asking for trouble. Advantage: Saints

Matt says: The Saints pass defense ranked in the bottom third of the league last year, and they’ll be tested this week by Calvin Johnson and the strong arm of rookie Matthew Stafford. The key to this match up will be how much time the offensive line gives Stafford to find the open man down field. The Lion receivers should provide the rookie with plenty of targets. Advantage: Lions

Detroit’s running game vs. New Orleans’ front seven

Zac says: The biggest bright spot during the pre-season was definitely the Lions running game. Kevin Smith has looked lean and fast and has a year of pro experience under his belt. I expect a breakout year behind an offensive line that seems to have found a nasty streak. Maurice Morris provides veteran experience while rookie Aaron Brown has fantastic speed. New Orleans has found success in recent years because of their offense, not their defense. Advantage: Lions

Matt says: Kevin Smith is indeed a dandy at running back for Detroit, and with a rookie quarterback they’ll need him to carry the load. Smith provides a good combination of power and speed and looks to have a great day if the Lion offensive line can give him even the slightest bit of room to run. Advantage: Lions

When the Saints have the ball…

New Orleans’ passing attack vs. Detroit’s defensive backs

Zac says: The Lions defensive backfield may be the weakest part of a weak defense. Anthony Henry, Phillip Buchanon and Louis Delmas are all talent upgrades over a year ago but there is still progress to be made. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is coming off a year that nearly saw him break Dan Marino’s single season passing yardage record.

Advantage: Saints Matt says: The Saints, led by quarterback Drew Brees, had one of the most prolific passing offenses in NFL history a season ago. The Lions, who still employ a patchwork defensive secondary, will quite simply be over matched this weekend in New Orleans. Advantage: Saints

New Orleans’ running game vs. Detroit’s front seven

Zac says: Running back Pierre Thomas appears to be out for week one due to a knee laceration. That will give Reggie Bush the chance to show, as Saints brass believes, that he is capable of being an every down feature back. He’s probably going up against the perfect defense to show just what he can do. The Lions lack depth on the defensive line but will need big production from the guys that play. Unless the front four can hold the line of scrimmage the strong Linebacker corps will be unable to make the kind of plays of which they are capable. Advantage: Saints

Matt says: The Lions finished the 2008 campaign as the NFL’s worst run defense. They’ve added two high quality linebackers in Julian Peterson and Larry Foote, but the defensive line is still a weak point. Speedster Reggie Bush figures to get the bulk of the carries for the Saints this week and the Lions can ill afford to let him find daylight. Advantage: Saints

Bottom line

Zac says: The Lions have a long way to go before they can be expected to compete with good teams on the road. Signs of competency on defense and a strong running game would be a step in the right direction. The Lions only shot at winning may be staying score for score with the Saints in a shootout. I don’t see it happening. New Orleans 34, Detroit 20

Matt says: The Saints are going score points, but the question will be how well the Lions offense can move the ball. Will Stafford be able to avoid those rookie mistakes we saw in the preseason? Will the offensive line be able to keep the pressure off of the rookie? The Lions may be able to hang with the Saints for a while, but I really don’t see them snapping their 17 game losing streak this week. New Orleans 35, Detroit 24

This article is also featured on The Mitten Sports Report

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