There is no question that Darren McFadden is a talented back and home run hitter. Some fans have even claimed he should be on the field every offensive play receiving an obscene number of touches and be the focal point of the offense.
I’ve actually argued otherwise claiming that Michael Bush is the more complete back.
But here I am going to propose something else.
Why not play Darren McFadden on special teams.
With Justin Fargas returning from an injured hamstring keeping the three running backs happy is going to become much harder. If you really believe McFadden should receive as many touches as possible then him on kick return or punt return makes a lot of sense considering he along with Felix Jones were a special team juggernaut at Arkansas.
Many fans seem to have a man crush on McFadden and take offense if you say he is injury prone and isn’t durable enough to be a starting running back in the NFL. If McFadden truly is durable then there is no harm in putting him in on special teams.
This week we may see McFadden on punt return. Hiram Eugene who fair caught punts for an injured Johnnie Lee Higgins is injured and out for Sunday’s matchup. Higgins is probable for the game with an injured shoulder. Tom Cable recently said if neither Higgins or Eugene can go McFadden will return punts with orders to fair catch everything.
Come on Cable. That’s like buying a brand new sports car keeping it in the garage and babying the throttle whenever you drive it. Who does that? Well I guess some people do that, but your brand new sports care is now a year old, time to drive it like it was meant to be driven.
Why not put McFadden back there with orders to do what he does best, rather than fair catching everything?
Or even better if Higgins is good to go why not put McFadden on kick return?
The Raiders have been missing a certain spark this season and I think that spark is in the return game. Big returns not only set the offense with better field position but they can be huge momentum changers especially at home bringing the crowd into the game.
But don’t get me wrong special teams is not the only way to unleash Darren McFadden on unsuspecting defenses put him out at slot, put him in motion and run him in the wild-cat.
Yes the wild-cat that is my next proposal for unleashing Darren McFadden.
He not only played special teams in college but he ran the wild-cat(or wild-hog) like no other.
Last week the Dolphins ran about a dozen plays out of the formation and averaged over nine yards per play. Granted they were playing the Colts who aren’t known for defense but still over nine yards per play is very impressive.
The Raiders in the wild-cat can be very dangerous considering both McFadden and Michael Bush are capable of throwing the football. Likely better than JaMarcus did week two.
It may not necessarily be a bad thing to take the ball out of the hands of struggling QB JaMarcus Russells and into the hands of some of our best playmakers Michael Bush and Darren McFadden.
The Raiders need every advantage they can get and this would take teams by surprise and keep defenses off balance. Likely the only team in the division who would be prepared for the wild-cat is San Diego. And this weekend we will get a look at how they fair against the “gimmicky” offense as they sqaure off against the Dolphins.
Come on coach Cable its time to stop babying your star runner and unleash him on an unsuspecting opponent, preferably the Denver Broncos this Sunday.
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Healthcare is not just a concern in Washington.
For every senator looking to debate a particular issue or sort through the din of misinformation, there is an NFL general manager, head coach and trainer hoping to answer the simple question.
Can my guy play or not?
There is not a football team that doesn’t face that most basic of questions on a regular basis and the Chargers have already fielded their share on the young season with possibly one injury looming larger than the others.
That would be Jamal Williams, who has been lost for the season with an elbow injury.
There are other maladies facing the Chargers, certainly. Center Nick Hardwick has had ankle surgery and is expected to be out at least until the team visits Denver on Nov. 22.
LaDainian Tomlinson has been nursing a sore ankle since the season opener in Oakland and has yet to practice. LT has said he won’t play until he’s 100 percent, not willing to repeat the mistake of last year.
Lesser hurts and/or illness have also affected the roster, including key starters Stephen Cooper, Eric Weddle, and Kris Dielman.
But the loss of Williams is a tremendous blow. As big as losing Shawne Merriman last year with the possibility of creating an even greater drag on the team’s ability to slow down the opposition.
Not only is he lost for the year, which eliminates any patchwork or Band-Aid fix to bridge the gap to mid-November as they can do with Hardwick. But Williams is the axis of the Chargers defensive line around which the other pieces operate.
No Williams at anchor, no pressure on the edge, as teams will quickly learn that the place to attack the Chargers is up the middle.
That worked last week for the Ravens and coming to town are the Dolphins, whose Wildcat formation needs no introduction. The Chargers couldn’t stop it a year ago and the Colts did little to slow them down last week as Miami controlled the ball for 45 minutes.
A lack of explosiveness, though, could only produce 23 Miami points against the Colts so the Chargers may be able to turn to their offense to carry the load come Sunday.
But finding someone to slow down Ronnie Brown, the focal point of Miami Wildcat, or any featured NFL running back, will be paramount.
As Turner has pointed out, there is nothing gimmicky about their offense and that was apparent Monday against the Colts as Brown routinely found the soft spot of the Indianapolis defensive front or changed pace with an inside handoff to Ricky Williams.
And where did they direct most of those runs? Right up the middle, and right where Jamal Williams was not last Sunday, will not be again this Sunday or any Sunday for the rest of the season.
A three-time Pro Bowler and a two-time All Pro, Williams did not miss a game last year while starting 15. He also registered 46 tackles, which led Chargers linemen.
At 33, Williams may not get to the quarterback as often as he once did, but his ability to handle a double-team and hold the point of attack at the line of scrimmage has allowed leading tacklers Cooper and Weddle to fill the gaps on run support.
Last week, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice combined to rush for 115 yards as the Ravens picked on Ogemdi Nwagbuo, a former practice squad player who has logged his first six NFL tackles in two games this season, but also a rotation of Luis Castillo, Jacques Cesaire and rookies Vaughn Martin and Andre Coleman.
Coleman has since been released and re-added to the practice squad, but the Chargers have signed veteran Alfonso Boone, who is in his ninth NFL season. Boone appeared in 15 games for the Chiefs last season but also worked under Rivera in Chicago.
With Travis Johnson out Sunday with a groin strain, the depth chart remains thin so the addition of Boone could prove critical for the Chargers to establish some consistency and allow Rivera to utilize his defensive strength, which are the linebackers.
A year ago, Merriman was advised to have knee surgery. He ignored the opinions of four different doctors, played a few series in the opener and had the procedure anyway.
The defense spent half a season looking for an identity and it cost coordinator Ted Cottrell his job.
Rivera should be able to adjust more quickly with the loss of Williams but that doesn’t mean the Chargers defense will be any more effective.
He will have to identify one large body to occupy the middle or rotate a nose-tackle-by-committee to slow down the run.
Otherwise, the Wildcat on Sunday will just be another installment of a season-long, running-game nightmare the Chargers will have to solve.
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I recently put together a regression model to determine the factors that most drive the number of points a football team scores in any given game. It’s a work in progress, but the factors I looked at were:
- Yards per attempt (Y/A)
- Interception Percentage
- Yards/Rush
- Average Y/A yielded by opponent
- Average points yielded by opponent
Of the variables above, Y/A was, by the far, the strongest—followed by interception percentage. The other three were pretty close in importance.
You’ll notice that a quarterback has a direct impact on two of the five. With that in mind, I decided to create a quarterback rating system that looks primarily at the factors of Y/A and interception percentage.
Further, because a quarterback’s performance is obviously affected by their opponent, I added an element that accounts for the quality of the opponent’s defense
The formula for the rating, which I’m going to call the Opposition Adjusted Quarterback Rating (OA Quarterback Rating) until I can think of a cooler or funnier name.
The formula was basically:
- Y/A minus the opponent’s average Y/A yielded PLUS
- Int percentage minus the opponent’s average Int percentage yielded
A few notes. Because the season is only two weeks old, the “Opposition Stats”—the stats that were used for Y/A and Int percentage yielded—were from all of 2008 and the first two weeks of 2009. So, there is a margin of error there.
Also, when calculating the “Opposition Stats”, the metrics from the game against the current quarterback was not counted. (i.e., if Jay Cutler is playing the Raiders, the “Opposition Stats” are from all of the games in 2008 and 2009 except for the one being played against the Raiders).
By the way, this is all a work in progress. As I get more information I will layer it in.
Below are the OA Quarterback Ratings for 2009 through Week Two. See the 2008 rankings here.
OA Quarterback Ratings: Through Week Two 2009
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My goal is to get into more robust analysis than what you’re about to read. But, just to get myself started, I started looking at some data to see if there is any way to predict a team’s offensive output (in terms of points).
Before I get to that, I want to give a little background. I’m of the ever shrinking school of thought that a quarterback should not be judged by his win-loss record. Working backwards, I decided that quarterbacks have much more control over their team’s offensive output than they do over the actual game results. That’s why my first article/analysis/”journey into loser-dome” is trying to find the stats that can predict offensive output.
I started off by looking at a couple of basic stats:
- Yards per attempt
- Interception %
- Average points given up by opponent (with the game being analyzed backed out)
I’ll dig into more stats as I get more time, but I wanted to get moving on this.
The first thing I did was look at the correlation of each of these individual statistics with the team’s scoring output. The numbers used were the averages for the 2008 season.
The 3 graphs to the right show the correlation between each of the 3 variables above and team scoring. If there is a correlation, we’ll see a linear pattern, with the data points arranging themselves diagonally from bottom left to top right (or, if it is a negative correlation, from top left to bottom right).
The results were a little surprising to me. Basically, the correlation of team score and the 
quarterback’s yards per attempt is significantly stronger than the other two. Interception % ahad almost no predictive value and average defense only offered a little more.
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Applying “Model” to Game Level Yards Per Attempt
Let’s take this a step further and apply the formula from the correlation of average yards per attempt and team score (Table 1-a) and apply it to individual games in 2008. The formula was y = 3.9572x – 5.7059 (x is yards per attempt, y is team score)
The resulting graph has an R squared of 0.2746. This means that 27.46 percent of the variance can be accounted for by this one variable. While that’s not great, when you consider all of the factors that go into a 60 minute football game, being able to explain one-quarter of the variance team output with one metric is pretty surprising.
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Do We Even Have to Look At The Score?
We know that there is some predictive value to comparing a quarterback’s yards per attempt to the team’s scoring. So, what if we look at how frequently the quarterback with the higher yards per attempt wins individual games.
Teams with a favorable yards per attempt won at a 71% clip (150-61). Only the Seahawks (2-6), Rams (0-3), Chiefs (1-3), Raiders (2-4), Lions (0-1), Bengals (1-2) and Packers (5-6) had losing records in games where they had better yards per attempt. Only the Titans (5-2) had a winning record when they had an inferior yards per attempt.
All of this says to me that a player who has a better yards per attempt statistic has a better chance of leading his team to victory.
What does this all mean? Not sure.
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One Last Thing
Below is a listing of quarterbacks and their yards per attempt.
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There are many story lines out there to follow for this Sunday’s clash between the New York Jets and Tennessee Titans to feast off of, the obvious being New York coming off the ecstasy of walloping the New England Patriots 16-9 last weekend to improve the Badfellas (Jets) to 2-0 on the year.
Meanwhile, the Titans were just two or three plays away from being 2-0 and not 0-2. Tennessee’s two losses to Pittsburgh and Houston were by a combined six points, making it quite clear that Tennessee has to win this weekend against the feisty Jets, if it wants to get its season back on track.
Yet, there are other story lines that are worth following, one of which has to do with the two coaches. Both Rex Ryan and Jeff Fisher hail from Buddy Ryan’s famed 46 defense. Fisher used to play under the elder Ryan, when he was a safety for the Chicago Bears in 1985, the year the Bears went 15-1 en route to Super Bowl XX triumph.
Rex, was there as well, much younger, just out of college, watching his father create one of the most ferocious monsters in NFL history; a monster that has spawned off menacing clones in Baltimore, Tennessee, and, now, New York.
Therefore, one would have to expect that neither team should be very surprised in what they see from the opposing defenses; this could be a total street brawl. Just look at last year’s Divisional playoff game between the Titans and Baltimore Ravens as evidence, when Ryan was the defensive coordinator for Baltimore.
The score was 13-10 in favor of Baltimore, and the game was most famous for its violent hits and absolute mayhem, as neither the Titans nor Ravens’ offenses could move the ball.
The score was tied at seven heading into the fourth quarter, with the kickers, Matt Stover for the Ravens and Rod Bironas for the Titans figuring to be the only difference on the evening.
The Titans couldn’t muster much of a ground game against Ryan’s 46 D. Chris Johnson, who had 284 total yards last week against Houston, was held to just 72 yards rushing by the Ravens that day, and, Kerry Collins’ inability to handle the blitz played a big part in the Titans defeat.
It is also worth noting that Fisher’s defense held its own as well. The Titans gave up only nine first downs and 211 yards of offense a good Ravens offense; one would figure that Ryan and his coaching staff used that Titans/Ravens game as a key source for their players to study.
Thus begs the question as to what should people expect this weekend, when Fisher leads his Titans into New Jersey to take on Ryan’s Jets? Lets go inside this match up:
QUARTERBACK: Mark Sanchez has gotten off to a brilliant start to his NFL career. He has withstood the heavy blitz packages of the Patriots and Texans in the first two weeks, leading the Jets to two victories in the early season. Sanchez has thrown for 435 yards and has completed 60 percent of his passes, something that is very unusual for a rookie quarterback. Sanchez has a lot of promise, and like Joe Flacco in Baltimore, should only get better with time.
Kerry Collins on the other hand has been around a long, long time, and is making his return to the Meadowlands, the place he called home for five years, when he played for the Giants from 1999-2003. He is still the starter in Tennessee, if for nothing else, the blatant fact that the Titans still do not trust Vince Young after his hissy fit last September.
Collins is a mixed bag. Sometimes he is very good, and other times he is just awful. Last year he was a godsend for the Titans leading the team to a 13-3 record, but fell victim to Rex Ryan’s blitz happy Ravens defense in the divisional playoff game. How Collins handles the Ryan’s schemes this time around will go a long way in determining a winner here. EDGE: JETS.
RUNNING BACK: Both the Jets and Titans feature a dynamic duo at running back, but the Titans are the team seeing the most success at the position right now.
Chris Johnson ran all over the Texans for 284 total yards, and scored three touchdowns in the effort. It should be interesting to see how the Jets play him. Since the Jets blitz so much, it should create some running room in space for Johnson in the short passing game. Expect Tennessee to roll out both Johnson and LenDale White on bubble screens, and dump-off passes all day long in order to tire the Jets front seven.
As for Gang Green, their running game hasn’t really started yet. Other than a 38 yard touchdown run by Thomas Jones late in game one at Houston, Jones and Leon Washington have been non-existent. Jones and Washington were shut down by the Patriots last week, and it will be key for the second ranked rush defense to stop this dynamic duo. If Washington and Jones find a hole, either is a sure bet to take it to the house, especially Washington.
Last year when the Jets went to Tennessee, Washington had a huge afternoon, rushing for 82 yards on eight carries, including a 66 yard touchdown run to put the game away for the Jets. Washington will be a key to the game if the Jets are to win it. EDGE: TITANS.
WIDE RECEIVER: The Jets may not have the tallest receivers in the NFL, but they certainly have a nice group of fast receivers. Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey and Dustin Keller have provided Mark Sanchez with sure hands, and terrific speed after the catch. Last week as the Jets were driving for the go-ahead touchdown early in the third quarter against New England, Cotchery made the catch on the slant, stutter stepped, and sped past two defenders, and nearly outran everyone for a touchdown. All three receivers have over 100 yards in receiving, and each are a threat to break it open for a touchdown.
As for Tennessee their receiving corps has always been looked down upon as one of the worst in the league, however Rutgers University rookie Kenny Britt is looking to change that. Britt leads the Titans in receiving with six catches for 107 yards. The Bayonne, N.J. native has terrific size (6’3″) and speed to become a legit number one receiver in the NFL. Meanwhile Justin Gage has done a nice job, while Algee Crumpler is splitting time with last year’s standout Bo Scaife at tight end. EDGE: JETS.
DEFENSE: Ah, now for the bread and butter of this game. This game features two doctors from Buddy Ryan’s 46 D University, so people should expect to see a very tight chess match from start to finish.
The Jets have been unbelievable. The fact that a group of players, most of whom never played the complicated 46 defense, have picked the scheme up this quickly speaks volumes about Ryan as a teacher. He has schooled his defensive players from day one in the 46, and has been able to get this group to gel just in time for the regular season, as result, Ryan’s Jets are the number one defense in football yielding only 241 yards per game.
The Jets have only two quarterback sacks, but they put tremendous pressure on Tom Brady and Matt Schaub through the first two weeks, knocking both of them to the ground during passes, and forcing both to throw on the hurry without a clear open receiver.
In the secondary, Darrelle Revis had his way with Andre Johnson and Randy Moss, holding both receivers to just four catches respectively. It should be interesting to see how he does against a rookie in Britt, this will be a challenge for the rookie to go up against the best corner back in football.
As for Tennessee, they are usually one of the best D’s in the league, but not this year. The Titans are 26th in total defense, and 32nd in the league in pass defense. Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger ripped the Titans secondary to shreds in the first two weeks, which is a big reason why Tennessee is 0-2. Oddly enough the Titans are second in rushing defense, surrendering 49 yards per game; however, when opponents see red in the secondary, why run? EDGE JETS.
COACHING: If Rex Ryan is a master motivator for his players with his boastful trash talking, and exuberant confidence, Jeff Fisher is one better. Nobody knows how to play the “us against the world” card better than Fisher. He always finds a way to get the most out of his team in crucial situations, and that should not change here. Fisher knows that this is a great opportunity for the Titans to walk into a loud building and turn the lights out. Can Ryan match emotions with Fisher? We shall see. EDGE TITANS.
UNIFORMS: Yes, I have uniforms as a category; the only reason for this is because this game is tapped as an AFL 50th Anniversary game. The Jets will wear their throwback N.Y. Titans uniforms, a navy helmet, and jersey with gold pants and numbers. The uniform looks like a poor man’s version of the Pittsburgh Steelers uni’s, but keep in mind the Jets are 3-1 in those uniforms since bringing them into vogue in 2007.
The Titans will be wearing one of the many versions of the Houston/ Tennessee Oilers uniforms. They will be wearing a sky blue helmet with a white oil rig on each side of the helmet, along with a white jersey with sky blue lettering. This is slightly different from the typical Oilers uniforms that fans have grown used to seeing in years past. Those uniforms had a white helmet with a red and blue oil rig decal, with bright, sky blue jerseys, and red piping. EDGE: EVEN, GOTTA LOVE THROWBACK JERSEYS!!
INTANGIBLES: Can Jet fans rev it up like they did against New England for the second straight week? Can the Jets continue to play with reckless abandon week in and week out? That is the question as we tick down to kickoff.
If Jet fans are as loud as they were last week, then for sure it could be enough to carry the team. However, there is a difference from the Patriots and Titans. There is a blood flowing hatred for New England among Jet fans, that same hatred does not exist for Tennessee. The fans will be there, but they won’t be as loud from start to finish, unless the Jets are winning the game.
The Titans badly need this game. They are 0-2, and could easily be 2-0, if it weren’t for a couple of late field goals that killed them. Expect to see a motivated Tennessee team waltz into Giants Stadium, knowing that they can get their season back on track if they shut up the Jets fans and end talk about how good Rex Ryan’s Big Bad Jets have been this year. EDGE: TITANS.
PREDICTION: This figures to be a dog fight from start to finish. Expect Sanchez and company to face their first difficult afternoon against a desperate football team. Remember desperate teams are always dangerous. If the Jets win this game, they have got to jump off to a big 10 or 14 point lead in the first quarter. If Jets allow Tennessee to hang around heading into the fourth quarter, it will give the Titans a ton of confidence, maybe enough confidence that it carries Tennessee to victory. TITANS 24, JETS 21.
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I’ve been watching Lions games for about 19 years now, and I have witnessed many painful sights. From Barry Sanders breaking defenders’ ankles to Paul Edinger kicking the game-winning field goal that destroyed any hopes of a playoff berth in 1999 and made me cry like a baby.
Over the years, you eventually develop a system to deal with the worst franchise in sports—or at least, I have.
So, to all the diehard Lions fans in Detroit and elsewhere, let me give you some sound advice to limit your outrage toward the team’s possible inept performance on any Sunday afternoon.
1. Don’t pay much attention to any talking heads who believe that the Lions have a chance to upset a superior opponent.
2. Before the game begins, expect the worst from the Lions. If the Lions have a 10-point lead and are actually playing well, don’t be optimistic—be cynical. Think to yourself “They’re going to blow this lead.”
3. You can still root for the Lions. You can yell and exclaim all the obscenities you want, but don’t get off your lazy-boy and act out a first down signal or throw a pillow at your television set when something goes wrong. Stay centered, grasshopper.
When something does go wrong, and you know it’s inevitable; it won’t surprise you in the least.
4. If the Lions are getting blown out by 20 points or more, change the channel and try to find another game to watch. Periodically, check in on the game just in case something crazy happens, like a comeback.
5. If a miracle happens, and they do end up winning the game, it will be so much sweeter. If the Lions end up losing, find a 4:00 game and enjoy. You’ll forget all about the loss until the highlights are shown on NFL Network.
If you follow my five steps, you’ll limit the possibility of heart attack or high blood pressure. I don’t know if that’s true, but it sounds logical, right?
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This week, I tried a new theme out by agreeing to do a Q+A with Rams Examiner Tim Klutsarits. We both asked each other questions about the opposing teams to get a grasp on the matchup that will take place on Sunday in St. Louis. Up first are Tim’s questions on the Packers followed by my questions on the Rams.
Tim Klutsarits: I think there are a lot of Rams fans who were shocked by what happened to the Packers against the Bengals. What happened?
Mark Strotman: The Bengals seem poised to have a resurgent year. Minus Carson Palmer’s mistakes, they looked very good on offense and their defense looks much improved. The combination of Leon Hall covering other team’s number one receiver and Antwan Odom getting to the quarterback at will is a darn good one. The Packers are ready to get back on track and simply had a bump in the road that was going to happen at some point this season.
TK: Should that loss give Rams fans hope that they will pull off the upset on Sunday?
MS: It should give your defense a lot of hope that if they get to Aaron Rodgers, it will make things interesting. Cedric Benson reminds me a lot of Steven Jackson so the run game will be key, but Rodgers is due for a breakout game so the Rams will need to score points early and often.
TK: Aaron Rodgers has had a relatively quiet start when you compare what he did last season to this year. Is he struggling because of his offensive line or should we be expecting a breakout game from Rodgers soon?
MS: Rodgers has been good (zero interceptions) but not great (two touchdowns) and a game against one of the weaker NFC teams is what he needs. He has noted the concerns of the offensive line and I believe the Packers will adjust to that this week. Look for short passes and lots of slants to back the defense off. Rodgers will not throw for a ton of yards but his completion percentage will be very high.
TK: The Rams have had problems stopping the run in the past few seasons and it continues this season. How has Ryan Grant looked and what do you expect on Sunday?
MS: Grant has looked alright but certainly not anything spectacular. Some can say it is due to the lack of production on the offensive line, but that extra burst that Grant showed in 2007 is still nowhere to be found. Brandon Jackson will be out once again, so Grant will produce yards because of the touches he gets, but as of now the Packers are still relying heavily on the passing game.
TK: The Rams have also had problems stopping the tight end. Is Donald Lee capable of having a huge game?
MS: Lee might not be the one to look at here, but rather Jermichael Finley. He was touted as a breakout player coming into this season but has not benefitted at all from Rodgers’ lackluster start. If what you say is true, look for Finley to become a vertical threat on your linebackers.
TK: Defensively it looks like the Packers secondary is really beat up. Is this something the Rams can exploit?
MS: Thankfully, Nick Collins will be back in action and recently acquired Derek Martin will get the start for the injured Atari Bigby. The way the Rams will be able to exploit the secondary is through the run game. Bigby was by far our best run support in the secondary and so there will be a big hit there. With Collins back and Woodson playing like an MVP, I wouldn’t expect a big outcome from the passing game. If the Rams are going to win, it will be because Steven Jackson had success on the ground.
TK: What is your prediction for Sunday?
MS: Packers 31, Rams 17
Mark Strotman: Steve Spagnuolo took over as head coach this season. Have you noticed an attitude change on the team and is there a sense of resurgence on the horizon in the city of St. Louis?
Tim Klutsarits: There has definitely been a change in attitude under Steve Spagnuolo although the results have not shown it. He wants to be a tough hard nosed football team that plays smart. They have been hard nosed but lack talent at a lot of positions. There is definitely a plan in place and people do believe that the Rams are going to be better…at some point. No one is believing in any miracles in 2009 but there is hope to be much more competitive this season.
MS: Steven Jackson has been relatively quiet in the first two games. The Packers gave up a ton of yards against the Bengals by running outside the tackles. Do you expect them to try to run the ball or finally get the passing game going?
TK: Steven Jackson is the Rams entire offense and the Packers should expect a heavy dose on Sunday, especially because of what Benson did to the Bengals. The Rams underutilized Jackson in Seattle and it showed with a 28-0 loss. The next week against the Redskins they used Jackson more, he had over 100 yards, and the game was 9-7. The Rams know they have to get Jackson a lot of touches and that will increase as the season goes along.
MS: Speaking of the passing game, where has Donnie Avery been? Is this a matter of the Rams not having a number two to compliment him (so he is doubled) or has he just been unproductive? It seems like he is they key to the Rams’ offense being able to get going.
TK: Avery has been horrible in the first two games. He committed a fumble inside the Redskins 5 yard line on Sunday which was arguably the reason the Rams lost the game. He had two drops in D.C. and committed another costly penalty. In Seattle he had drops as well and had penalties. He in all reality lost his #1 receiver job to Laurent Robinson. The Rams are still high on Avery but they have put him on notice that he better get better….real quick.
MS: Entering the 2009 Draft, the three players I wanted the Packers to look at were Jason Smith, B.J. Raji, and Brian Orakpo. How has Jason Smith looked early as your left tackle of the future?
TK: Jason Smith has been a project thus far. He is getting better and better but has not dominated like you would hope a number two overall pick would do. He has played almost exclusively at right tackle during the regular season and will remain there for 2009. The plan is to move him in 2010 when Alex Barron is done with his contract. Smith will not play on Sunday vs. the Packers due to a knee injury.
MS: Will the Rams be able to stop Aaron Rodgers after giving up 240+ yards to both quarterbacks in the first two games? Rodgers seems to be poised to break out this week and a dome only makes it that much more likely that he will. How do the Rams plan to stop him?
TK: Stopping Rodgers will be a very interesting project this week. The Rams have not been good at getting to the quarterback (only 1 sack this season) but they are not giving up the big play in the secondary. The Rams have been picked apart by the running game and short passes to the tight end. Rodgers may have a big game but his stats will reflect a high completion percentage with low yardage. The Rams number one concern this week has been about getting to the quarterback. We’ll see how it plays out on Sunday.
MS: What are the top three things the Rams need to do in order to upset the Packers this Sunday?
TK: If the Rams get to Aaron Rodgers multiple times, get Steven Jackson close to 150 yards rushing and can protect Marc Bulger then the Rams will pull off the upset. Being 0-2 and with the situation the Rams are in here in St. Louis they can’t afford to lose this one. Going 0-3 and having another “lost season” is not something this organization can afford. Jobs are on the line for the players and the organization desperately needs to sell tickets for the remaining 7 games. This game is a sellout but most are not. If the Rams can win the season becomes interesting again. If not the Rams will fall off the radar completely because the Cardinals will be in the playoffs and the Blues will be starting their season. This is as close to a must win game as the Rams are going to have this season. Be aware Packers fans.
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Basically every preseason their is a battle for bragging rights between the Giants and Jets. This season the Jets won the game. It is one of the most interesting games of the preseason. Personaly I love when the two teams meet because the players play in it as if it were a regular season game. The Giants and Jets have somewhat even squads. So I decided to make The NFL’s All New York Team.
Begin Slideshow
I dedicate this new and continuing series of NFL predictions to my buddy Anthony. He looked over my “10 Predictions For The NFL Season” and I swear his first question to me was:
“Have you ever watched an NFL game before?”
He’s right. I’m an idiot. But actually, I prefer to be called “idiot savant” because it makes me sound like I’m a French fashion designer!
Anyway, I’ve always wanted to see how good I was at testing theories, predicting who will win, and what the scores might look like.
And don’t worry about my bad predictions from before. I just got off the phone with AT&T. Apparently, they had canceled the wireless Internet service on my crystal ball!
So glad I got that fixed! But before we get started, here’s a disclaimer:
These predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Keith Smooth will not be held liable in the event that you decide to wager your mortgage, child-support payments, IRA, 401K, Social Security, Medicare payments, or the money you were going to use to bail your 14-year-old son out of jail. And please be advised that if you wager and fail to pay, a couple of 300-pound Samoans will show up at your door with a Louisville Slugger and a box of razors.
Let’s get started, shall we?
Washington (-6.5) at Detroit: The Redskins didn’t deserve to win last week’s game against the Rams. That was embarrassing! If you consider yourself a “playoff” caliber team but all you can muster is nine points at home against a team with a rookie quarterback that hasn’t won a game since 2007, then guess what? YOU STINK!
And is Jim Zorn the worst at calling plays in the red zone? He needed a fake field goal to score a touchdown in the first game of the season against the Giants in Week One. Think about that for a second. If you’re calling fake field goals in the second quarter of the first game that’s a sign of desperation. That’s some crap Western Michigan would pull if they were playing at Michigan in September. But in the first week of the NFL season?
Last week, on 4th-and-1, Zorn called some corny halfback pass that Clinton Portis promptly sailed right over Chris Cooley’s head. You can’t get one yard against the St. Louis Rams? Really Jim Zorn? I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Detroit won this game. God, I hate the Redskins!
AND THEY ARE MY FAVORITE TEAM!!
Washington 19, Detroit 17
San Francisco vs. Minnesota (-7): I really don’t know what to expect from either of these teams. They’re both 2-0 but they’ve played four cream puffs, or as Dick Vitale would say “cupcake city baby!” I LOVE the contrasts in coaches. Mike Singletary is steely and intense on the sidelines. Meanwhile, Brad Childress looks about as comfortable as a driver’s ed teacher.
The 49ers are kinda frisky, and I love how they are winning games without Michael Crabtree. What a doofus! He should be playing right now, earning millions and eating at a fancy steakhouse. Instead, he’s stuck on his mama’s couch eating takeout from the Waffle House!
His decision to sit out for a big contract makes him about as dumb as Peter Griffin from Family Guy.
Nope, I take that back. Peter is smarter.
As for the Vikings, they’re in for a tough one. But they’ve got Adrian Peterson, or as I like to call him “Purple Jesus!” As long as his back injury isn’t too bad, I gotta go with them.
Minnesota 23, San Francisco 17
Tennessee vs. New York Jets (-2.5) I LOVE the Jets’ defense! LOVE IT! Kudos to Rex Ryan who, as architect of the league’s most exciting defense, has shown that he has an appetite for destruction—and for pizza, and for ice cream, and for cheeseburgers, and for . . .
And if your name is Darrelle Revis and you totally shut down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss in back-to-back weeks, guess what? You get my vote as the best cornerback in the NFL. However, Tennessee is a desperate team. They are 0-2 after losing a game last week to the Texans that they had no business losing. If they lose this game, their season is over and they will be forced to watch from the sidelines as their rivals seek the fame and the glory.
You know, the same way Jon Gosselin watches Kate!
I fully expect the Titans, last year’s landlord of the division to evict the J.E.T.S. JETS, JETS, JETS from the home of the undefeated!
Tennessee 17, New York Jets 10
New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay: Gotta give Tampa Bay Quarterback Byron Leftwich credit. No other quarterback in the league has perfected the art of throwing a deep ball like Leftwich. And when I say perfected, I mean he releases the ball like he’s a javelin thrower in the Summer Olympics. The big difference is that the javelin thrower is more accurate (zing!).
You know who is accurate? Eli Manning. When the game is on the line there’s only three QBs I would want more than Eli: Big Bro Peyton, Brady, and Roethlisberger. That’s it! Giants fans won’t have to worry about any late game heroics this week.
New York Giants 27, Tampa Bay 17
Jacksonville vs. Houston (-4): In one of my many awful preseason picks, I confidently predicted that the Houston Texans would break out of their shell and assume the title as the best team in the AFC South. After the Jets pimp-slapped them in Week One, the air came out of that balloon faster than you can say “Matt Schaub!”
But how did they respond in Week Two? They went to the home of the Grand Ole Opry and dropped a grand ole 34 points on the defending AFC champs in the wildest game of the week. After watching Kurt Warner light up the Jaguars, let’s just say I’m expecting Houston to take this one.
Poor Jacksonville. What can be said about the Jags that hasn’t already been said about Arena Football, the WNBA, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Washington Nationals, Lindsay Lohan’s career . . .
Houston 30, Jacksonville 17
Green Bay (-6.5) vs. St. Louis: Is it me, or does 6.5 points seem awfully low? Maybe Vegas is not quite sure what to make of this Packer team. After losing last week at home to the Bengals, I just feel like they’re going to explode in this one. And the Rams are terrible. I can’t even be bothered to come up with a joke about them.
What do the St. Louis Rams and my six month-old niece have in common?
They both crap in their pants on Sunday afternoons (zing)!
Green Bay 30, St. Louis 14
Atlanta vs. New England (-4): This is another head-scratcher. Exactly why are the Pats favored here? Is this because of past accomplishments? The Pats look old and moldy. Tom Brady is still finding his way back. They have no running game. Joey Galloway was a terrible signing. Their defense is suspect.
Now, let’s look at the Dirty Birds. They have elite players at quarterback (Matt Ryan), tight end (Tony Gonzalez), running back (Michael “the burner” Turner), and wide receiver (Roddy White). This is one of the most dynamic offenses in football, and I’m not going to wager on the Pats’ defense.
Sorry Vegas, I’m not taking the bait.
Atlanta 24, New England 20
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia (-9): Sorry Chief fans. Your team will be totally overshadowed by the return of Michael Vick. Gotta give Philly sports reporter Phil Sheridan credit. I think he perfectly nailed the real reason why Andy Reid brought in Michael Vick. It’s a damn good article. You guys can read it here.
Speaking of Vick, this is a totally inappropriate joke I told onstage last month:
“When Michael Vick was asked how it felt to be back, he said it felt good. He said being a quarterback in the NFL is easy. He said it’s like shooting fish in a barrel.”
“What he neglected to mention was that Fish was the name of a pit bull he used to own . . .”
Eagles 24, Kansas City 16
Cleveland vs. Baltimore (-13.5): Cleveland is a basketcase and Baltimore might just be the best team in the NFL. Here are some amazing stats: Baltimore is averaging a staggering 406 yards per game in total offense, and they’re second in the league in scoring behind New Orleans. Joe Flacco has made the leap from a good rookie to an elite quarterback. And Willis McGahee has scored a league-high four touchdowns. In other words, they’re going to score A LOT of points this week.
Since the Browns are too dreadful to even talk about, the only amusing thing I can mention about them is the fact that Eric Mangini, according to Wikipedia, named his three sons after Rodney Harrison, Bill Belichick, and Brett Favre. Boy, I cannot wait for Belichick to have a son so he can name him after Mangini.
TV Anchorwoman in Boston: “And in other news, Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick and his on-again, off-again girlfriend are the proud parents of a new baby boy. He weighs eight pounds, six ounces and his name is Eric Bendict Arnold Mangini!”
Baltimore 40, Cleveland 10
Chicago (-2.5) vs. Seattle: Here’s a sampling of the Chicago fans after Week One: “JAY CUTLER IS AWFUL! TRADE HIM! CUT HIM! WATERBOARD HIM! GET HIM OUTTA HERE!”
And here’s a sampling of the Chicago fans after Week Two: “WHAT A GREAT PICKUP! JAY IS THE MAN! KYLE ORTON AND REX GROSSMAN WISH THEY WERE THIS GOOD!”
Sports fans are crazy, irrational people. I should know. I’m one of them.
Peter King said that the dropoff from Matt Hasselbeck (who will miss this game because of a rib injury) to Seneca Wallace is as severe as the dropoff from Peyton Manning to Jim Sorgi. I personally would’ve said it was as severe as the dropoff from the old Melrose Place to the “new” Melrose Place.
I MEAN FOR GOD’S SAKE! ASHLEE SIMPSON-WENTZ CAN’T ACT HER WAY INTO A PAPER BAG!
Chicago 21, Seattle 17
New Orleans (-6) vs. Buffalo: Why do I get this feeling that this game is going to be a bigger shootout than the gunfight at the O.K. Corral? Both teams can score, but neither team has a good defense.
Even though the Saints’ D leads the league in interceptions, it has more to do with the fact that Detroit and Philadelphia were forced to throw the ball because their defense was shredded early and often by Drew Brees and company. Through two games, Brees has been the the best player in the league, throwing nine TDs, completing 75 percent of his passes, and leading the league with a QB rating of 132.
The Saints might be without the services of Mike Bell (229 yards rushing). The New Orleans Times Picayune reported that Bell didn’t practice on Thursday and is doubtful to play on Sunday.
As for the Bills, I was critical of their attempt to bring back the ’90s by bringing back the No Huddle Offense. If I was Rick Pitino, I would’ve said, “Marv Levy, Jim Kelly, and Thurman Thomas ain’t walking through that door!”
I remember cracking a joke saying that since Buffalo is turning the page back to the ’90s, why don’t they bring back the Goo Goo Dolls while they’re at it! But of course, I’m an idiot. So far, so good. Trent Edwards looks confident, Fred Jackson looks explosive, and Terrell Owens looks insane.
BUT YOU ALREADY KNEW THAT, DIDN’T YOU?
New Orleans 34, Buffalo 30
Miami vs. San Diego (-5.5): Have you ever spent months trying to hook up with a girl? You liked her, she kinda liked you. You spent money taking her out on dates, and to the movies. You would pick her up when she had car trouble. You would spend hours on the phone talking to her. You were always there for her when she needed you. But she didn’t want you as a “boyfriend.” She wanted you as a “friend.” And then, without warning, the next thing you know she’s hooked up with some other guy whom she has known for all of 15 minutes! And now he’s her “boyfriend!”
And when you ask her why she wasted three months of your life if she was going to hook up with the first dolt she met, she just shrugs her shoulders and wants to know if you could still be her “friend.”
Well, that’s exactly how Miami felt Monday night when they held the ball for 75 percent of the game, and Peyton Manning and the Colts calmly took the game right away from them. The reality is that they should’ve won that game. The Dolphins didn’t just control the time of possession, they brought the time of possession home and cooked dinner for it and watched Netflix movies with it.
Four days later and I still don’t know how they lost that damn game! And I agree with color commentator Jon Gruden, who basically said that for all the buzz over the Dolphins and their Wildcat offense, it’s really too gimmicky to work consistently in the NFL (are you listening Andy Reid?).
As far as the Chargers are concerned, something about them feels off. They have an abundance of talent and yet it feels as if something is missing, something intangible. But then again, I’m not surprised. Norv “I Can’t Believe He Is Coaching His Third Team” Turner is the likely culprit.
San Diego 31, Miami 13
Pittsburgh (-4) vs. Cincinnati: The main reason why I’m a little late in writing my NFL picks this week is because I’ve been working on Willie Parker’s obituary. And then his mama and daddy wanted me to help with the funeral arrangements! It’s been more than I could handle!
And Steeler fans, can you explain the look on Jeff Reed’s face after he missed that field goal that should’ve won the game last week against the Bears? Was he crying? If I was Mike Tomlin and I saw my kicker crying I would’ve turned into Jimmy Dugan (Tom Hanks) in A League Of Their Own:
“ARE YOU CRYING? THERE’S NO CRYING? THERE’S NO CRYING IN FOOTBALL!”
Mucho respect goes out to The Nati for beating the Packers in Lambeau last week. Now that the Bengals have a running game and what looks to be a half-decent defense, is Carson Palmer the team’s biggest question mark?
I kinda think he is. This game is HUGE for him. It’s definitely the biggest game he’s played in since that infamous playoff game against the Steelers four years ago. Everybody’s picking Pittsburgh, but I’m thinking upset.
Cincinnati 25, Pittsburgh 24
Denver (-1.5) vs. Oakland: This is my favorite line of the week. This is basically Vegas throwing their hands up and saying, “I have no freaking idea!” I agree. Denver is 2-0 and they lead the league in fewest points allowed, but they won on one of the flukiest plays of all-time in Week One, and last week, they beat a horrid team.
It’s impossible to know if Denver’s really any good based on their first two games. As for Oakland, they aren’t good. JaMarcus Russell is a bigger disaster than the Hindenburg. If I was Darrius Heyward-Bey and I wanted to see someone make an accurate pass, I would go to a hip-hop club and wait for a groupie to hit on me!
Denver 13, Oakland 10
Indianapolis vs. Arizona (-2.5) Vegas is giving these two teams a combined point total of 48, so they’re expecting a shootout. It’s definitely a fun Sunday night matchup featuring two hall-of-fame quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner). I really don’t have too much to say except that NBC is on quite a roll with these exciting night games. So far, they’re 3-for-3. If only their regular programming was half as good. The only nights worth watching NBC are Thursdays and Sundays.
Arizona 31, Indianapolis 28
Carolina vs. Dallas (-8.5) HOW BOUT THEM COWBOYS? I can’t remember the last time a stadium opened to such hoopla. It was like the circus had come to town, which is probably a good analogy, considering Jerry Jones is a modern day P.T. Barnum. And boy does he have a big-top on his hands!
And the thought of some punter nailing that scoreboard makes me giddy with excitement. It’s going to happen, and the fallout from it should be a lot of fun! And Al Michaels could barely control himself Sunday night. If you had your eyes closed as Michaels was describing the new Cowboys Stadium, you would’ve thought that he was talking about Megan Fox!
But a new stadium can’t hide the fact that the Cowboys are stuck with the same Tony Romo. I’m a New York Yankee fan and believe me, there’s a little too much Alex Rodriguez in Tony Romo. He’s great in the first three quarters, but when the pressure is on in the fourth quarter, I would not want Romo as my quarterback.
As far as the Panthers are concerned, their season hinges on this game. If they lose this, they’re down 0-3 and they can forget about the playoffs. John Fox, the clock is ticking on your coaching career. And speaking of the Panthers head coach, I have a morbid fascination with seeing him lose.
And you know why?
Because I want to see what it looks like when vultures pick the meat off a dead Fox!
Cowboys 27, Panthers 21
This was too much fun! See ya next week!
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
Two seasons ago, New England Patriots star Tom Brady and Indianapolis Colts phenom Peyton Manning were in a league of their own.
Peyton Manning was coming off of a Super Bowl victory and Tom Brady was introduced to a new, valuable friend in Randy Moss. Brady and Manning were the cream of the crop. They were 1 and 1A.
Well, it is time for people to give a new man props and that’s Drew Brees. Don’t get me wrong, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are still phenomenal quarterbacks and I’d take them on my team any day, but look at what Drew Brees has done on the New Orleans Saints the past three seasons.
In each of his three seasons with the Saints, Brees has thrown for over 4,000 yards and averaged at least 29 TDs. Last season, Brees came up just 16 yards short of breaking Dan Marino’s single season record for passing yards. Brees finished with a fat 5,069 yards…the second greatest total in NFL History.
So how has Brees followed up his near historic season? He has thrown for nine touchdowns in his first two games and is on pace for 72 this season. To put that in perspective, Tom Brady holds the record with 50 TDs in one season where the Patriots went 16-0.
Drew Brees needs to win and play well in the playoffs. I get that. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have won Super Bowls…I hear ya. But that doesn’t mean the media and public can’t give this man some love for his personal achievements.
Do you think Entourage regrets not having Brees instead of Brady come on the show? I hear Brees is a big hitter on the golf course…
-Tommy T
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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