The 2009 Green Bay Packers: A Weak Three Review

As week three of the 2009 NFL season draws quickly to it’s climax, the Green Bay Packers can easily be classified as one of it’s surprise teams.

Through their sloppy, ineffective, play the Packers are starting to showcase three glaring weaknesses that could make or break their 2009 season just three games in.  Surprise!

Maybe I should have specified what kind of surprise it was going to be.  Unless your name happens to be Antwan Odom, it’s not a good one.

Let’s take a look at the three weaknesses and the importance for the Packers to overcome them this week against the St. Louis Rams and for the 2009 season in general.

You may want to strap in for this one as it’s most probably going to be a bumpy ride. As a Packers fan, your conductor isn’t in a particularly good mood. Justifiably so, it seems.

All aboard?  All right.

 

Weakness Number One: Mr. Allen Wade Barbre, Offensive “Tackle.”

Though spelling his name Barbre, Allen Wade pronounces it “Bar-ber.”

I’m assuming Allen Wade is spending too much of his time correcting people who pronounce his name “Bar-bray” to devote much thought to playing offensive tackle for the Green Bay Packers.

The obvious solution to this is to bite the bullet and switch the last two letters of his name around.  This should take the pressure off and allow Allen Wade some time to study his playbook.

Either that or he could maybe just go cut hair somewhere and quit totally screwing up my favorite football team; he could do that.

Barbre’s play has been nothing short of awful at the right offensive tackle position for the Packers in 2009, and it’s negative effects on the team have been far reaching and pervasive.

Barbre’s inability to block someone, anyone, man-to-man is extremely disruptive to the Packers offense.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is running for his life this season, having already been sacked 10 times in two games.  When he’s had an extra second to actually throw the ball, Rodgers has been fairly accurate with a 56.7% completion rate for 445 yards.  The fact that he has yet to throw an interception this year is a credit to Rodgers’ toughness and increasingly mature play, as it’s extremely hard to make good decisions with your eyes crossed and your ears ringing all afternoon.

The fact that Rodgers’ has only thrown two touchdowns in 2009 is due primarily to him deciding to keep his team in games instead of risking everything on one play. I believe this to be a sound strategy and it relaxes me a bit as a fan to know that the Packers have someone as smart and talented as him manning the QB position.

What doesn’t relax me one bit is my growing certainty that Rodgers won’t be staying healthy enough to man anything for 16 games this year. 

The play of his offensive line, especially Barbre, will lead to an eventual Rodgers injury.  Even if it doesn’t, and Rodgers grits his teeth and plays through numerous smaller aches and pains (which is probably already the case), the Packers need to understand their star quarterback will be much more safe and effective with help.

Speaking of help, Allen Wade Barbre springs to mind there as well.  He needs a lot, and so far this season he’s gotten it. I know, I know; it makes me sad too.

In two games this season the Packers have thrown guards, tight-ends, and fullbacks over to Barbre’s side to help stem the bleeding. This plan seriously blew up in the Packers faces this past Sunday.

These are tight-ends and fullbacks that are also needed elsewhere. Maybe to help out someone else, like Chad Clifton with his assignment on Cincinnati defensive end Antwan Odom?

Oh wait, don’t worry about Clifton, he’s been hurt. Hurt trying to stop Odom one-on-one, which is a total coincidence.  Don’t worry at all Allen, we’ll just put guard Daryn Colledge in there against Odom and keep sending all the help we can to the right side. Yep, yep, things should work out just fine.

Well, they didn’t. Odom ended up dropping five sacks, all by his lonesome, on the Packers and poor Aaron Rodgers (2 on Clifton, 3 on Colledge).  Odom must have wished he could have stayed out there for an extra quarter or two this past Sunday; who doesn’t like going to Hawaii for free?

Fullbacks and tight-ends are also useful catching passes.  Having them available to do this instead of tied up doing someone else’s job would benefit Rodgers as well.

Running back Ryan Grant might also appreciate some help doing his job. With backup Brandon Jackson still limited by an ankle injury, Grant is the only RB currently on the Packers roster (DeShawn Who? What? Where?). Grant could certainly use the services of his fullbacks to open holes for him and maybe a right tackle who can actually block, or something. I mean, we’re wishing here right?  Might as well go for broke.

Barbre has also had a negative impact on the defense, leaving them out on the field far too long with his drive-killing play. 

The play of Barbre and the rest of the Packers offensive line will be, in my opinion, the entire game against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, September 27, 2009.  This is a game the Packers are certainly capable of winning; but in regards to their season it’s really a case of how they win.

If they even do. The play of Barbre against veteran Rams defensive end Leonard Little will tell a huge tale for the Packers in the game and 2009 in general. Little is an aging veteran with some memorable games already in his career, who’d always take one more.  Leonard’s veteran savvy and scary intensity will most likely give Barbre fits and Packers fans will probably hear his cries of “Help! Help!” all the way in Wisconsin; about midway through the first quarter most likely.

Will this be the case, over-matched early and often?  If it is, then it leaves Colledge against Rams second-year end Chris Long one-on-one, all day.

Long has shown some promise for the Rams with four sacks and 16 pressures last year, and is looking for one big game to finally prove himself worthy of his high draft status.  Something tells me he’s watching tape of the Packers like wolves watch sheep right now, and Colledge better prepare himself for a “Long” afternoon.  I really hope he’s up to it.

The Packers may actually manage to run up the middle against the Rams defensive tackles and if the fullbacks are at all available to block, Ryan Grant might find some daylight.

This could take pressure off Rodgers, giving him time to throw effectively.  Again, this will all come down to the play of his tackles.

Even if Long and Little end up running all over the Green Bay backfield Sunday afternoon though, the Packers could still win.

Rodgers manages a game well, even under pressure. 

The Green Bay defense has a habit of generating take-aways and points; at least, Charles Woodson does. 

Unfortunately for the Rams, they’re weak at numerous positions and are just a beatable team by anyone’s standards.

Which doesn’t mean they won’t win against the Packers; it just makes it unlikely.  My point is that the Packers don’t just have to beat the Rams; they have to beat them first and foremost with the play of their offensive tackles. The Packers tackles have to stand up (literally; they fall down a lot) and prove they can offer their QB some protection for somewhere between 85 and 100 percent of the time they’re out on the field. I’m not asking for miracles here, but the current 30 to 35 percent ratio is just not cutting it for me. 

Because, ladies and gentlemen, as of right now there’s no help in sight for the 2009 Packers offensive line.

We’ve already mentioned the fullbacks and tight-ends, they’re better off doing the jobs they were actually signed for and there’s no real need to mention them here anyway because it’s not the type of help I’m talking about at this point.

No, the Packers need either a miracle where everyone on the line suddenly realizes they’ve been reading the playbook upside down and backwards the whole time and quickly get’s their (expletive) together or they need an upgrade in personnel.

Either/Or is just as likely to happen for the Rams game this coming Sunday, so dwell on that for as long as it takes you, then we can move on to the Packers next glaring weakness.

 

Weakness Number Two: Injured Safeties Leave No Roster Room

Something weird is going on here. The Packers have made a few roster moves in the last 24 hours and while they’re necessary now, looking back a few weeks they don’t seem to add up.

Let’s take a look at the hard facts right now and leave the weirdness alone until weakness number three.

The first fact is that the Packers have suffered injuries to both starting safeties, Nick Collins and Atari Bigby. Bigby is officially listed as out, while Collins was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice and is a question mark for Sunday against the Rams.

Third-year pro Aaron Rouse is also limited by injury and the fact that Green Bay released him on Wednesday. The latter will probably have a huge impact on his play for the Packers on Sunday against St. Loo.

Replacing Rouse on the 53 man roster is fourth-year safety Matt Giordano, a free agent who has spent his most notable time with the Colts, gathering four starts in something like two years in Indy.

Giordano is currently listed as Collins’ backup and will probably get the nod Sunday if Nick is unable to go.  Relative unknown Derrick Martin, a recent acquisition from Baltimore, will most likely start in place of Bigby. 

The Packers other option at safety is fourth-year man Jarrett Bush. I’m using the term “option” fairly loosely here, with Bush’s only real advantage to Rouse (and the only reason I see to keep him on the roster instead of Rouse) being his ability to avoid injury. This has to do with Jarrett’s instinctive talent of taking several plays off every game, effectively conserving his energy and maintaining his health. A quick penalty is always good for a breather as well. What is it with people who have that last name? 

Aside from Giordano and Rouse, the Packers also made another move with an addition to the scout team by welcoming back undrafted rookie offensive tackle Dane Randolph.  This wasn’t a complete shock as fifth round draft pick Jamon Meredith, another OT, was recently signed from the practice squad by the Buffalo Bills.

With the shuffling at the safety position and the injury to Clifton, the Packers seem certain to head into St. Louis featuring the same offensive line that finished the Bengals game. Barring a trade, their roster has no obvious room for adjustment in the form of offensive tackles and any new additions wouldn’t be ready to help against the Rams anyway.

Which brings us to our third, and last, glaring weakness of the Packers in 2009. It’s a big one.

 

Weakness Number Three: Lack of focus.

This seems to be the term that defines the 2009 Green Bay Packers on the field.

From the linebackers, to the special teams, to the offensive line the Packers can’t seem to get their players to focus. Sloppy, disorganized play has ruled the day for the Pack in 2009 and blame is starting to show up. As Packers fans, we need a place to put it.

Does it belong with the players? Some of it, sure. Certain individuals need to start playing professional football instead of Pop Warner; there’s no doubt about it.

Let me ask you something though; why is someone like, say, Allen Barbre even on the field for the Packers? His terrible play is mostly his own fault, but why is it being allowed to disrupt the entire team on Sunday?

Lack of focus, that’s why. If, by lack of focus, you mean poor coaching and suspicious management and talent evaluation, that’s it right there.

Packers general manager Ted Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy waltzed into this season with a huge hole in their team’s offensive tackle position and this decision has bit them and their team squarely on the behinds so far.

I have to admit, I’ve been a definite Thompson booster in the past and have attributed numerous of his puzzling decisions to the fact that he’s a savvy football operator and competent GM.

I’m starting to fear that so many of his decisions seemed puzzling because they were, in short, bad.

Recently things have gotten, as I mentioned earlier, weird.

Thompson and his staff had an obvious lack of focus regarding the Packers offensive line entering the 2009 season and it’s showing. 

The inability to re-sign veteran tackle Mark Tauscher led to the promotion of third year man Allen Barbre (previously mentioned) into the starting right OT position for the Packers. How could this terrible decision be allowed to happen? Lack of focus? I guess.

The trade of fourth-year tackle Tony Moll to Baltimore for safety Derrick Martin is also a suspicious move. Nothing at all against Martin, who’s played reasonably well for the Packers and is currently needed as a starter, but something isn’t right here.

The Packers traded away the only real depth they had at the OT position with Moll.  The guy they kept, Breno Giacomini, is so highly valued by the team that he hasn’t even dressed for the first two games and will probably not see the field at all against the Rams either, in favor of the terrible Barbre.

I’m not saying Moll is better than Giacomini or Barbre, but as Packers fans we’ll never get to know that. The failure of Thompson to provide his team with options at an important position seems like a lack of focus to me.

The release of veteran free agent safety Anthony Smith before the season started is another troubling move by Thompson. Smith had a fine preseason for the Packers and his release precipitated the Moll trade.

By signing Giordano and releasing Rouse the Packers have shown an extreme lack of focus. The team spent over a day after he worked out for them discussing the possibility of adding Giordano, with the biggest obstacle apparently being who would be released to make room on the roster.

With the eventual casualty being Rouse, it makes one wonder why Smith was ever cut in the first place. If Rouse was so very much on the bubble anyway, releasing him at the end of camp and keeping Smith and Moll on the roster would seem to have been a healthier, more focused, choice for the Packers.

As it stands, the Packer’s only reasonable chance to solve their roster woes seems to be a trade.  From what I can see, the team needs a new starting right tackle and he probably won’t come cheap.

If he’s even entertaining the idea, Thompson will have to give up not only draft picks but active roster players in order to upgrade the OT position this season for the Pack.  Other GMs will be able to smell his desperation and any trade the Packers manage to make will end up sending more overall value the other way than the team will get in return. Such is usually the case with glaring weaknesses and quick fixes regarding the same.

What Thompson will most likely do is eventually release Barbre and either scan the waiver wire or sign a veteran/rookie free agent to take his spot on the roster.  Then Ted will close his eyes, cross his fingers, and hope for the best.

Someone else on the Packer’s staff who seems to be holding to this philosophy is head coach Mike McCarthy. Again, I have been a McCarthy booster in the past and I hope my happiness over him not being Mike Sherman has not blinded me to his short-comings. 

If a team is troubled by a lack of focus on the important aspects of their careers, such as football and the proper playing of, there should always be someone there to offer sage advice and counsel.

Why not make that guy the head coach?  Seems like it would work, right?

Unfortunately for some NFL teams, head coaches are busy individuals who sometimes fail to recognize when their team is lacking direction and focus.

The team is practicing poorly? They got their butts whipped last Sunday? Well, they’re a bunch of grown men, I’m sure they can figure it out for themselves. I gotta go, we’re installing a new jacuzzi tub back at the house!

Situations like that are awful for NFL teams, their players, and their fans. Is McCarthy toeing the “neglectful coach” line? Time will tell, I suppose.

The St. Louis Rams will also tell. Their defense and the ability, or lack thereof, by five Packers to keep it out of the backfield will show Packers fans a lot about their hopes for this season.

The Packers seem to be balancing on a thin edge right now between emerging contender and team in turmoil.  How it will eventually turn out is anyone’s guess, but someone needs to start righting the ship. 

Addressing the offensive line issue seems as good a place as any to start.  This would most likely mean making roster room and the Packers may need to stop focusing so intensely on special teams. Seriously, three fullbacks?  Three?

As far as their lack of focus on everything else, this isn’t a problem that will be fixed by talking. Someone has to pull the reigns tight on the Packers and not allow them to make the mistakes they’re becoming known for. Things such as penalties and sloppy play.

Who is going to take control of the Packers in 2009?  Aside from Aaron Rodgers and Charles Woodson, who’ve already stated their cases on the field, the obvious candidate would be head coach Mike McCarthy.

If he can’t get it done, then I would suggest fresh eyes for the 2010 campaign. I’d prefer to not hear anymore talk about poor practices and a lack of focus from the Packers coaching staff. What I’d like is to see improved play on the field.

With two games in the next six weeks against Jared Allen and the Minnesota Vikings have the Packers Javon Walkered themselves with their inattention to talent and depth at the offensive tackle position?  This is a scary possibility.

Will Rams legend Deacon Jones, whose jersey is being retired by the team Sunday, knock Allen Barbre down in the parking lot before the game a few times just for kicks?  As far as I understand, the Deacon could always spot a duck.

Will the Packers select an offensive tackle with their first pick in the 2010 entry draft?  Almost certainly.

Turmoil or triumph? Failure or focus? Victims or victors? 2009 Green Bay Packers tell me!  What path will you choose?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Kenny Phillips’s Knee Injury “Career-Threatening”?: A Giant Question Mark

Three days ago, the Giants had a rising star on the back end of their defense.

As of this afternoon, they have a potentially season-defining problem.

The team placed second-year safety Kenny Phillips on injured reserve about five hours ago, ending his season and knocking the Giants off their early pole position in the NFC.

According to Newsday‘s Tom Rock, the knee soreness that bothered Phillips throughout the preseason was diagnosed as patellofemoral arthritis, a potentially career-threatening chronic condition that cannot be corrected or alleviated by surgery.

Dr. Craig Levitz, a noted orthopedist (who, it should be noted, has not examined Phillips or seen his MRI results), offered some very ominous information about the condition in Rock’s article.

“Arthritis only goes in one direction,” Levitz explained. “It only gets worse, it never gets better.”

In a less physically taxing sport like baseball (the Yankees’ Hideki Matsui reportedly suffers from the same condition), it is possible to continue playing with frequent cortisone shots as well as injections designed to drain fluid from the knee.

In the NFL, such measures are totally out of the question.

With Phillips out, the already thin Giants’ secondary is practically translucent. Neither Aaron Ross nor Kevin Dockery are likely to play in Sunday’s game against Tampa Bay, and Tom Coughlin will be probably be forced to elevate more than one player from the practice squad to the active roster.

The Giants have already started looking for replacements, claiming fourth-year safety Aaron Rouse from Green Bay off waivers.

But with the season already under way, finding a player of Phillips’s caliber will be impossible. In just his second year in the league, Phillips had the look of a Pro Bowler: that rare combination of a sure tackler, a devastating hitter, and a smart, aggressive coverage man with phenomenal range.

It is difficult to tell what kind of effect this will have on Jerry Reese’s long-term plans for his team. But Reese must be ruefully coming to the conclusion that his team, just 72 hours removed from Super Bowl aspirations, might have a higher draft pick than he’d hoped.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

The Picks: NFL Week Three

Last week’s picks: 7-9

(Upset of the Week: 0-1, Game of the Week: 1-1)

Overall: 19-13

I’m still trying to figure out what format I’m going to make my picks in.

*new features this week are “Lock of the Week” and five locks to be top ten fantasy players (QB,RB,WR).

 

Detroit vs. Washington

Matthew Stafford is finally going to find his connections with Calvin Johnson in this game. They’ve been okay together but Johnson is going to really tear up an average Washington secondary. Lions get their first win since 2007 in this one.

Detroit 27, Washington 23 (Upset of the Week)

 

St. Louis vs. Green Bay

St. Louis is awful. Green Bay is coming off of a bad game and get a perfect matchup, playing in St. Louis. The Packers seem like they’d be great playing in a dome with speed all over the field like they have. Jennings and Rodgers are going to hook up a lot and the Packers defense will force a lot of turnovers.

Green Bay 35, St. Louis 16

 

Minnesota vs. San Francisco

Brett Favre, after leading the league in interceptions a year ago, has yet to throw a pick. He’s going to make up for lost time in this game. The Vikings will be forced to throw as the Niners limit Peterson and Favre will show that he is basically the same guy from last year. San Francisco’s defense and whole team is legit.

San Francisco 19, Minnesota 17

 

New England vs. Atlanta

Tom Brady has disappointed most people so far. He has not looked good at all through two games. It’s easy to name ten quarterbacks who have played better without even thinking. Matt Ryan will show Brady up again,just like the rook Sanchez did a week ago, as the Falcons go into Foxburough and further threaten the Patriots season.

Atlanta 31, New England 27

 

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans

Chris Johnson is an animal. He played bad in week one, but does any running back play well against the Pittsburgh defense. He is the fastest back in the league and can break long runs better than anybody (yes, even better than Peterson). The Jets won’t be able to contain him like the Steelers did and Tennessee will get a much needed win on the road.

Tennessee 20, New York 16

 

Philadelphia vs. Kansas City

Kansas City is very, very bad again this year. Their defense is non existent. No matter who is behind center or running the ball for Philadelphia this week, they will beat the Chiefs. There is no way their defense plays as poorly as it did last week.

Philadelphia 37, Kansas City 18

 

Tampa Bay vs. New York Giants

The G-Men couldn’t have picked a better game to establish their running game in. Jacobs and Bradshaw have both been underwhelming this season and if they don’t run all over Tampa’s horrible run D, then Giants fans have cause for a lot of concern. Eli Manning is improved, but not good enough to carry a team by himself. However, Giants fans shouldn’t be worried; Jacobs and Bradshaw will both have field days.

Giants 34, Buccaneers 10

 

Baltimore vs. Cleveland

Baltimore is the most complete team in the league right now. Joe Flacco is looking like a Pro Bowler, Willis McGahee looks five years younger, and Todd Heap is suddenly one of the best tight ends in the league again. Factor in that Ray Rice hasn’t taken off yet and that the defense has yet to hit their stride and that is a very, very scary team. Expect those two things to happen this week against a Browns team that is in disarray.

Baltimore 31, Cleveland 0 (Lock of the Week)

 

Houston vs. Jacksonville

Jacksonville is not as bad as people think. They’ve faced two of the best passing teams in the league and have a weak secondary and have lost by an average of eight points. That isn’t as bad as people have been making them seem this past week.

However, they are playing another one of the best pass defenses this week, so the Jaguars will playing from behind once again. Schaub puts up another great game in this one after a dismal showing in week one. The Texans are going to score a lot of points this year..

Houston 35, Jacksonville 26

 

Buffalo vs. New Orleans

Drew Brees may not have broken the yards record last season, but things are looking good for him this year. Even with health problems at running back the Saints have averaged 46.5 points per game.

Buffalo’s defense isn’t a significant upgrade from Phily’s and the Saints are going to force turnovers just like in weeks one and two. Fred Jackson can only do so much for Buffalo.

New Orleans 44, Buffalo 28

 

Seattle vs. Chicago

Matt Hasselback, in all likelihood, will not play in this game. As we saw last week and last year, the Seahawks are not a team that can win with Seneca Wallace. He isn’t a good enough quarterback to win games without any support from the running game (Justin Forsett really needs to be starting, he is their best back).

This is a perfect bounce back game for Matt Forte, facing a team that Frank Gore totally demolished. This one will be closer than many think, but Chicago will still pull it out.

Chicago 24, Seattle 20

 

San Diego vs. Miami

The Chargers are one of the best teams in football, but they really need a healthy Tomlinson to win in the playoffs this year. Sproles is one of the best in the league once he is in the open field, but is bad between the tackles. That’s right, he is bad.

Rivers can beat most teams through the air anyway, especially now with his much improved Vincent Jackson playing like an All Pro. The Dolphins pass defense is not good so Rivers could very well put up similar stats to the Ravens game, where he tallied over 400 yards.

San Diego 30, Miami 17

 

Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is a dangerous team this year. Both sides of the ball have a lot of talent, but so does Pittsburgh. Palmer still hasn’t gotten on track which is scary because the Bengals should be 2-0. Palmer is not likely to get back on track in this game, although Cutler did against this defense. Having Polamalu on the sidelines really hurts the Steelers secondary. The Bengals bring back memories of 2005 in this upset.

Cincinnati 17, Pittsburgh 13

 

Oakland vs. Denver

These two teams were supposed to be horrible this season, yet they enter this game a combined 3-1. Denver is suddenly a great defensive team with Elvis Dumervil leading the way. Oakland has been good despite Jamarcus Russell’s accuracy problem.

Russell sure isn’t going to be a whole lot better against tough Broncos defense and neither is anybody else for Oakland.  Kyle Orton isn’t exactly John Elway for Denver, but at least he gets the job done. The Broncos will continue to roll and remain undefeated after beating Oakland in the Black Hole.

Denver 22, Oakland 10

 

Arizona vs. Indianapolis (Game of the Week)

Kurt Warner looked like last year’s Kurt after playing bad in week one. Peyton Manning has another solid game for Indy. This will be a very entertaining quarterback dual and a high scoring game.

Another interesting subplot is the two rookies Chris Wells and Donald Brown competing. Brown has been the better back so far, Wells has to want to show Brown up. This game is going to be shootout and in the shootout, always take the better quarterback.

Indianapolis 34, Arizona 28

 

Dallas vs. Carolina

All three Monday Night games so far have come down to the final drive and this one might too. These are two very even teams. The Panthers are desperate for a win to avoid an 0-3 start, while Dallas has a lot of pressure not to start 0-2 at their new stadium. Remember, in high pressure situations, Tony Romo can implode.

This is certainly a possibility against Carolina. Marion Barber will not be healthy, further increasing a chance that the Panthers could steal this one. One more week of picking the Cats, then I’m done picking them against good teams, but the circumstances point to a Carolina victory this Monday.

Carolina 27, Dallas 21

 

Five locks to be top 10 fantasy players this week

Quarterbacks

1.Drew Brees

2. Matt Schaub

3. Aaron Rodgers

4. Philip Rivers

5. Peyton Manning

Running backs

1. Brandon Jacobs

2. Michael Turner

3. Matt Forte

4. Fred Jackson

5. Maurice Jones-Drew

Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson

2. Greg Jennings

3. Andre Johnson

4. Reggie Wayne

5. Roddy White

 

Game of the Week: Indianapolis over Arizona

Upset of the Week: Detroit over Washington

Lock of the Week: Baltimore over Cleveland

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Packers-Rams: Six Things To Look For in This Weekend’s Matchup

The St. Louis Rams host the Green Bay Packers Sunday in their home opener. The Rams are winless through two weeks, losing 28-0 to Seattle, and 9-7 to Washington. The Packers are 1-1 following a 21-15 win over Chicago, and a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati.

There may be more Packers fans at the Edward Jones Dome than Rams fans with thousands of Packers faithful traveling to see their team.

Couple that with disappointed Rams season ticket holders selling their seats, and the dome once again becomes “Lambeau South.” That’s how it was referred to two years ago when Green Bay came to town and left with a lopsided victory.

If the Rams expect to stay close and have a chance to win at the end, they must do these three things:

 

Establish Steven Jackson early: The Rams finally got Jackson going last week in the loss to the Redskins. Jackson had 17 carries for 104 yards, and an additional four receptions for another 15 yards. He needs more touches this week, probably 20 by halftime, to soften the Packers secondary and open it up for Marc Bulger.

 

Hold onto the ball, Donnie Avery: Avery was the victim of a couple key drops last week, and is not looking like an NFL No. 1 receiver, as the Rams hoped he would be. The first receiver taken in the 2008 draft also had a fumble inside the Washington red zone that cost his team some points.

If Avery has better ball control against Washington, the Rams win. They need him to secure the ball Sunday against the Packers.

 

Cover the tight ends: The Packers have two very good tight ends in Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley. St. Louis has had trouble covering tight ends through the first two weeks of the season. Seattle’s John Carlson caught six balls for 95 yards and two scores in week one, while Chris Cooley had six catches for 83 yards last week.

If the Rams safeties and linebackers can take Lee and Finley away from Aaron Rodgers, things should be easier on the St. Louis defense.

Those are the three things the Rams must do.

They must avoid the following three things:

 

Giving Aaron Rodgers time in the pocket: Rodgers has a strong, accurate arm, and will pick apart most secondaries when given enough time. The Packers have allowed an NFL-high 10 sacks through two games, and starting tackle Chad Clifton is out with an ankle injury. The Rams got their first, and only, sack of the year last week.

They must take advantage of a weak Packers line and force Rodgers to throw under duress.

 

Picking up dumb penalties: In week one, it was four personal fouls, including two from Richie Incognito. The Rams were also penalized for having 12 men on the field, which negated a touchdown on a returned blocked field goal. Last week, there was a needless holding penalty on Avery on a long Jackson run.

The Packers have picked up a lot of penalties through the first two weeks. This game might come down to whichever team commits the fewest penalties wins.

 

Turnovers: The Packers have six interceptions in two games this year. Last season they lead the NFL in defensive touchdowns. Last week Charles Woodson, who had two picks off Carson Palmer, returned an interception 37 yards for a score to give Green Bay a 21-14 second-quarter lead.

Bulger is completing just 50 percent of his passes (32 of 64), but he has yet to turn the ball over. Against a ball-hawking, aggressive defense like Green Bay’s, he has to get rid of the ball quickly, and not force anything. If he can’t do that, the Packers could turn this one into a laugher quickly.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFC North Fantasy Preview: Week Three

This, and more Fantasy Football articles like it, can be found on Tab’s new home for fantasy football analysis: Top Fantasy Football.

Now what?

In the NFC North, two teams were thought of as sure-fire winners entering last week, and two were thought to be dead in the water. While the Vikings and Lions lived up to their end of the bargain in their game against each other, the Packers disappointed against the Bengals while the Bears showed more fight than many pundits thought they would in their post-Urlacher 2009 home debut.

So now we have to ask, where do we go from here?

The Vikings are off to a predictable 2-0 start, and have been every bit the dominant team they appeared to be capable of being on paper. The Bears and Packers are both 1-1, which is disappointing for the Packers and somewhat comforting for the Bears. The Lions are 0-2…go figure!

There are, however, a lot of fantasy studs in this division still. Some studs have shown up as advertised (Adrian Peterson), but Chicago’s Matt Forte and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson have left something to be desired through a couple games. Will this week be their coming out parties?

Let’s look at the matchups for Week Three.

Washington @ Detroit – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

Where’s Harry Caray when you need someone to exclaim “It might be…it could be…”? Is this the week the Lions get back on the horse and put a number on the W side of the ledger? Based on this week’s media clips, it sounds like Hall of Fame Redskins quarterback Sonny Jurgenson would believe so.

Former players aren’t the only people showing a lot of doubt in the nation’s capital these days, but the Lions could be equally satisfying tonic to the Redskins’ woes as Washington could be for the Lions.  Remember, they haven’t won in 19 games.

Either way, this could be a fantastic week for fantasy owners.

Prediction: Detroit 31 – Washington 20

Green Light: Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, Clinton Portis

Yellow Light: Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettitgrew, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, WAS DEF

Red Light: Jason Campbell

Sleeper: Antwaan Randle-El

San Francisco @ Minnesota – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

Who would have thought a month ago that this would be a battle of undefeated teams? While the Vikings figured to be 2-0 to start the year, Mike Singletary’s 49ers are playing inspired football in a division begging someone to win it this year. Could this be the Niners’ year?

While the Detroit-Washington game could have some fantasy studs, this game presents issues for fantasy owners. Last week, Frank Gore blew up against Seattle for over 200 yards, but Minnesota has what has been advertised as an elite run defense.

The stats after two games, though, would indicate otherwise; Minnesota ranks 15th in the NFL so far, allowing 104 yards per game on the ground.

Meanwhile, Peterson was described by Brett Favre this week as being a more complete football player than Walter Payton. How better could Favre motivate a Niners’ defense that ranks third in the NFL so far in run defense (53 tards per game)?

This game could be a defensive battle that’s a lot of fun to watch for fans, but not so much for fantasy owners.

Prediction: Minnesota 16 – San Francisco 13

Green Light: MIN DEF, Peterson

Yellow Light:SF DEF, Gore, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe

Red Light: Shaun Hill

Sleeper: Favre

OK, I know saying Favre is a sleeper is like saying midnight’s the best time to get a sun tan, but he might be called upon to earn his salary this week because of San Francisco’s solid run defense. Odds are just as good that Favre has a passing touchdown this week, if not better, than Peterson getting into the end zone.

Green Bay @ St. Louis – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

If you own anyone on the Packers’ offense, you LOVE this week’s opponent. The Rams are one of the worst teams in football. There’s little reason to believe the Packers shouldn’t be able to run and throw as the please on Sunday; the Rams are allowing 146 yards per game on the ground (25th in the NFL) and 258 yards per game passing (also 25th in the NFL).

What’s worse for the Rams is that they’ve given up these astronomical numbers against Seattle and Washington, both of whom aren’t anywhere close to as offensively explosive as the Packers.

The only bright spot for the Rams this week might be Steven Jackson. If Cedric Benson can put 141 yards on the Packers defense, Jackson could be set for a really nice fantasy week. He stands to get plenty of carries if the Rams have a clue and try to keep the Packers offense on the sidelines.

Prediction: Green Bay 50 – St. Louis 17

Green Light: Steven Jackson, GB DEF, Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Ryan Grant

Yellow Light: Donald Driver, Donald Lee

Red Light: Everyone on St. Louis except Jackson

Sleeper: Kenneth Darby

Chicago @ Seattle – Sunday, 4:15 PM EST

On paper, this is the week Forte owners have been waiting for all year. The Seahawks defense is more banged up than the Bears, and their quarterback is debating whether or not he should play with a fractured rib.

This week should be a big win for Chicago, and fantasy owners of Bears players. If you’ve jumped on the Johnny Knox Bandwagon, good luck, though. This should be the week the Bears re-establish their ground game.

Prediction: Chicago 34 – Seattle 9

SOLID GOLD LOCK: CHI DEF

Green Light: Forte, Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen,

Yellow Light: Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, TJ Houshmandzadeh

Red Light: SEA DEF, SEA OFF

Sleeper: Deion Branch

Source: Top Fantasy Football

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NFL Week Two Performance Rankings

In our articles, we often refer to our “Relative Performance Measure” or (RPM) which is the statistic we use to make up our performance rankings.  Unfortunately, it is impossible to explain our RPM fully in each article, but we do get questions from readers such as “What is your RPM?” and “Why is it significant?”

Since it is early in the season, and there are only two games to go on with our RPM, we thought we’d take the time here to explain what they are, and why they are significant.

What are the PossessionPoints.com RPM numbers?

This may take some time to explain, so be patient and stay with us. You won’t be sorry.

The basic PossessionPoints.com stat is an offensive measure. It is a blended stat (which means it is generated by a mathematical formula from other stats and game information). As the name implies, “time of possession of a scoring drive” and “points scored on a drive” are key components. The quarter in which the points are scored also come into play.

As an offensive measure, we have key cutoffs at 60 and 100 (From analyzing numbers, we determined that 60 and 100 were significant levels where winning percentages changed.) This is where our color codes come in.

We turn an offense “yellow” at 60 and “green” at 100. From the time that we have been keeping this stat from the 2006 season, we have noticed that a team that gets to the “green” level of offensive performance, wins better than 75 percent of the time.

The defense of a team is measured by how many PossessionPoints it allows the opponent’s offense to total. The same key cutoffs apply, but this time we start a defense “green” and turn it “yellow” at 60 and “red” at 100. A team, that keeps its opponent below 60 (Green), wins better than 80 percent of the time.

We have talked about offense and defense but haven’t mentioned RPM yet. To get a “team” measure in a game, we simply subtract their defensive PossessionPoints performance from their offensive performance. This net number can be positive or negative and has its own significance.

You’ll note the 40-point yellow range in the offensive and defensive numbers. That range has significance here also. We color the net “green” at positive 40 and “red” at negative 40. Here a green net equates to better than 90 percent winning. This net number is a single game “Performance Measure.”

Our season “Relative Performance Measure” is the average that a team has performed in all of the games they have played.

Why is the RPM significant?

This is an interesting question because different people find significance in different numbers so we will look at a couple of things. As you know, 12 teams make the playoffs each year. Based on end-of-regular-season RPM’s,  eight of the top 12 RPM teams in 2006 and 2008 made the playoffs, and 10 of the top 12 in 2007 made the playoffs.

In 2006 and 2007, five of the seven teams with the lowest RPMs to make the playoffs lost their first game, and in 2008 six out of seven lost their first game.  In 2008, three of the top four were in the Conference championship games, and in 2006 and 2007 it was two out of four.

Another way to look at significance is to look at a team that this season is defying the PossessionPoints stat, and is 2-0 despite a very red -66 RPM. That team is the Colts.

In 2006, the Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. They finished the regular season with an RPM of 17 which was tenth in the league. They owe it all to their offense who was first with an average 134 PossessionPoints per game. Their defense was dead last with an average of 116 PossessionPoints allowed. But they won it all.

However, if you remember, their defense came alive in the playoffs and performed to an average of just 53 PossessionPoints allowed in the Playoffs. So, there was no surprise that this new-found defensive strength coupled with their famed offense, proved to make the Colts unstoppable that year in the Playoffs.

In 2007, the Colts as a team did better in the regular season with an RPM of 29, but their offensive performance fell a little to 124 while their defense improved to 94. They went 13-3 and got a first-round playoff bye. They met the 11-5 Chargers who had the No. 2 defense that year and an RPM not far behind the Colts at 23. The Chargers’ prevailed 28-24, and the Colts were one and done in the Playoffs.

In 2008, the Colts were again 12-4 like 2006, but this time they were one of the few teams to ever make the playoffs with a negative RPM. Last season, they had a -6 RPM and had to travel to San Diego to play the Chargers in the first-round game.

The Chargers’ regular season RPM was 29. It was by no means a mismatch, but the Chargers did prevail 23-17, and the Colts were once again one and done.

We find significance in winning football games, but can a team win without following the PossessionPoints formula? Sure, it seems the Colts are trying harder than ever to prove it in 2009, but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely the Colts will take a deep breath, realize they are fortunate to be 2-0 and make fixes that will result in them performing better by our measure.

On to the Week Two Rankings:

As the season goes on and there are more weeks of data, we would stack our stat-generated “performance rankings” against any opinion-based “power rankings.” Early in the season with only two games done, many position changes for the teams are still ahead of us.

Does it surprise anyone that the Jets are on the top of the performance rankings after two weeks? The probability is that their numbers cannot stay this strong. An RPM of 100 is way more than the Patriots’ 2007 RPM of 83.

That RPM was off the charts for a full season. By comparison, last year the Steelers after the Super Bowl had the top RPM, but it was only 37. So, we have to believe the Jets will come back to the pack a bit, and the question we have to ask is that as they get reeled back in will they continue to win?

Behind the Jets are the Saints, while the Jets have been defense led (allowing only 23 PossessionPoints per game) the Saints as you probably have guessed have been offense led posting an average of 163 PossessionPoints per week.

It’s a long season, but those two teams are off to a great start.  We could talk a lot more about the chart below, but we spent a great deal of space trying to answer some questions we have gotten in the past.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

AFC North Fantasy Preview: Week Three

This, and more Fantasy Football articles like it, can be found on Tab’s new home for fantasy football analysis: Top Fantasy Football.

Another week, another set of mixed reviews from the AFC North.

The defending champions went into Chicago and lost to a wounded Bears team, while the Bengals got over their dramatic loss to the Broncos and pulled off a huge win at Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Ravens, specifically Ray Lewis, reminded everyone that their core is their defense, while the Browns were…the Browns.

In my predictions last week, I’ll admit right out of the gate that I was wrong on Chad Ochocinco. I thought Green Bay’s secondary would hold him and his mouth at bay last week, but he found a way to make his promised Lambeau Leap. Moving forward though, I don’t see any reason to bet against Charles Woodson and Al Harris.

As we look forward now to Week Three, there are some more intriguing matchups. The division is keeping the action in-house this week, and there could be some big-time fantasy points found in this division.

Cleveland @ Baltimore – Sunday, 1:00 PM EST

Talk about a bad week for the Cleveland media to start asking questions about Brady Quinn’s job security! Not only are the Browns 0-2, but now they travel to Baltimore to face perhaps the hottest team in the NFL.

There is no question that this game would mean more to Cleveland if the Browns can win than to the Ravens if they lose. With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how much Cleveland coach Eric Mangini throws to the wind in trying to get a huge upset this week.

The follow-up question to that is whether or not the best Mangini has to offer is good enough to beat a Ravens team that’s rolling on all cylinders right now. While they did allow San Diego’s Philip Rivers to throw for a career high in yardage last week—and Darren Sproles had a nice game catching the ball and returning kicks—they did their job and kept the Chargers out of the end zone.

If the Ravens can contain the electric Chargers’ offense, what can the Browns’ struggling group do? And can the Browns stop a suddenly confident offense, with both Ray Rice and Willis McGahee becoming impact fantasy players? I wish Cleveland good luck, but wouldn’t bet my house on them this week.

Prediction: Baltimore 34 – Cleveland 13

SOLID GOLD LOCK: BAL DEF

Green Light: Joe Flacco

Yellow Light: Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Todd Heap, Joshua Cribbs

Red Light: CLE DEF, Quinn, Jamal Lewis

Sleepers: Derrick Mason, Braylon Edwards

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati – Sunday, 4:15 PM EST

This is an intriguing matchup that, six or seven days ago, I wouldn’t have thought of as much as I do now. With Troy Polamalu out still for the Steelers, and the Bengals’ ability to throw the ball on the Packers’ good secondary, this could be a fascinating game from both a competitive and fantasy point of view.

Ochocinco and Laveranues Coles could be solid players against Pittsburgh’s secondary that allowed Chicago rookie Johnny Knox to become a trendy fantasy add this week. I wouldn’t put a ton of faith in Cedric Benson to repeat his 141-yard performance from a week ago against the Steelers’ front, though.

On the other side, the Steelers continue to struggle moving the ball on the ground, which opens more opportunities for Ben Roethlisberger to make plays. If the Steelers struggle on the ground early, they might abandon the run again and let Roethlisberger win another game for them in the air.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 27 – Cincinnati 24

Green Light: Ochocinco, Coles, Carson Palmer, Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller

Yellow Light: Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall, Hines Ward, Benson

Red Light: CIN DEF

Source: Top Fantasy Football

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Expert NFL Sports Betting Picks: Week Three Preview

The first two weeks are officially in the books and have started to tell us a few things about the teams that we cheer for. With that being said, it’s only the third week and we have 14 games left for each team.

What will happen toward the end of the season is still a mystery, as we’ve seen some pretty crazy things already. So what should we expect out of the Free NFL Picks in the third week of the season?

 

Tennessee vs. New York Jets (New York -2.5). This should be another tough game for the Titans. Even though they’re obviously a pretty good team, they have started out 0-2 on the year. The Jets’ defense appears as if they are for real under the tutelage of Rex Ryan.

Mark Sanchez has also been great through two games, even managing to beat the Patriots already.

Chris Johnson went off last week against Houston and made a lot of fantasy owners happy. Will he be able to keep it up?

Jacksonville vs. Houston (Houston -3.5). If Houston plays like it did against the Titans, the Jags really don’t have a chance in this game. However, that’s the reason they play the games out. Houston probably won’t hit on all cylinders in the passing game like they did last week.

The Jaguars had a nice contribution from Mike Sims-Walker last weekend and they hope he continues to grow into his role. It will be interesting to see if Matt Schaub can continue the blistering pace that he started last week.

Cleveland vs. Baltimore (Baltimore -13). According to the oddsmakers, this is the biggest mismatch of the week. However, just when you start to count out an underdog, that’s when they start to surprise you. Therefore, the large spread should increase betting on the Cleveland side this week.

If Baltimore keeps playing the way they have been, they will definitely win the game, but will they cover the huge spread?

New York Giants vs. Tamba Bay (New York -6.5). Eli Manning is definitely learning how to spread the ball around without Plaxico Burress by his side. On the other side of the ball, Byron Leftwich is proving that he is still a capable player in his own right. The Bucs also have a good two-headed running attack with Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams. Can the Bucs stop the vaunted ground game of the Giants though?

Washington vs. Detroit (Washington -6). Last week, the Redskins scared a lot of people by playing an extremely close game with the St. Louis Rams. They failed to cover then and many wonder whether they can do it this weekend. Their offense is anemic, and they really don’t have a quarterback. If Detroit plays like they did in the first half against the Vikings, they can surprise the Redskins.

Green Bay vs. St. Louis (Green Bay -6.5). As mentioned with the Redskins preview, the Rams battled hard with them last week. If Jackson can get it going on the ground again, this could be a closer game than people think.

After a promising start against the Bears, the Packers’ defense took a step back against the Bengals. Can they go back in the right direction against the lowly Rams’ offense?

San Francisco vs. Minnesota (Minnesota -6.5). Although the Vikings sputtered in the first half against the Lions, they came on strong in the second half and put them away. If the Vikings can put it all together for a full game, they will handily whip the Niners.

However, the Niners have quietly jumped out to a 2-0 record of their own. This should be a pretty good game.

Atlanta vs. New England (New England -4.5). The Patriots sputtered against the Jets last week and looked like a pretty mediocre team. They only put up nine points which is pretty much unthinkable for the Patriots of old.

On the other side, the Falcons have beat down the Dolphins and Panthers in their first two weeks. Tony G. is still doing damage to opposing defenses and they look like a legitimate offense. Expect a pretty close game in this one.

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (Pittsburgh -4). The Bengals looked like a much improved team last week as they beat the Green Bay Packers. Carson Palmer looked better and Chad Ochocinco put up another good game. If they can keep improving, they will be a team to be reckoned with and might surprise the Steelers.

The Steelers are coming off of a tough loss at the hands of Chicago and are looking to bounce back.

Denver vs. Oakland (Denver -1.5). This is one of the closest spreads of the week, and for good reason. The Raiders are much improved over last season and the Broncos aren’t really as good as their 2-0 record indicates. Will the McD era in Denver keep rolling along with another win? Or will the Raiders win back-to-back games for the first time this season?

Indianapolis vs. Arizona (Arizona -2.5). Arizona shut up a lot of the naysayers last week when they trounced the Jaguars. Many people believed that they were a fluke last year, but Kurt Warner put an end to all of that talk with an amazing performance.

This one should be interesting because it pits two of the best quarterbacks that have been in the league for a long time against each other. Look for a shootout in this one.

Carolina vs. Dallas (Dallas -9). Carolina has started out terribly in the first two games. They got blown out against Philly and then lost to the Falcons last week. While both of those teams are good, it’s not a good sign that Carolina didn’t even look competitive. Can Delhomme turn it around and stop turning the ball over?

Dallas, on the other hand, is coming off of one of the most disappointing losses in quite some time at the hands of the Giants. If Romo can stop throwing interceptions, this could be a special team.

Chicago vs. Seattle (Chicago -1.5). The Bears look to continue on their promising win last week against the Steelers. Can they keep it going or will they be shut down by Seattle?

The Seahawks might have to go with Seneca Wallace at quarterback. This isn’t exactly an encouraging sign if you’re a Seahawks fan. The Bears hope to get Matt Forte rolling on the ground again after two sub-par games.

New Orleans vs. Buffalo (New Orleans -6). Drew Brees has been completely out of this world the first two weeks of the season. He has tied an NFL record with nine touchdown passes over the first two weeks of a season. They also get Pierre Thomas back at full strength this week, which should help the ground game.

T.O. found the end zone last week and the Bills looked a lot better. Can they keep the passing attack going against New Orleans?

Miami vs. San Diego (San Diego -5.5). This should be a pretty evenly matched game. The Dolphins controlled the clock against the Colts and still somehow managed to lose. They can run the ball and their defense is not bad.

On the other side, the Chargers look to rebound after a loss to the Ravens. Will Phillip Rivers be able to bounce back?

Check out all of Vernon Croy’s Expert NFL Sports Betting Picks for Week Three of the 2009 NFL season.

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Having a Good Quarterback Is the Key to Winning

For the first time in a long time, I had the chance to watch football this past weekend, uninterrupted and without the thought of papers, exams and other work I had to get done looming over my head.

I noticed something that I have overlooked for years, and don’t really know why I have done so.  I became aware of just how important the position of quarterback is in the game of football, no matter the level. 

Two games stuck out to me from this past weekend as evidence of this.  The first was the Florida vs. Tennessee game on Saturday afternoon, and the other the Indianapolis vs. Miami game on Monday night. 

I know both of these games had to do with my favorite teams, but it is purely coincidental and you will see what I mean as I begin my case.

Now, whether or not Urban Meyer really did hold his offense back because Tennessee would not open up and throw the ball and really challenge the Gators for the win is up for debate, but he is right.  Tennessee could not open up the offense with Jonathon Crompton.

Crompton has never shown that he has a big-time, Division I arm that could lead the Vols to the promised land, and Lane Kiffin and Tennessee had to play accordingly and try to jam the ball down Brandon Spikes’s and the Florida defense’s throats with Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown. 

That strategy almost worked, too, but as the old saying goes, “Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  “Almost” still means “came up short,” and it took the worst game of Tim Tebow’s college career for the Vols to get as close as almost.

Crompton was doing a great job not throwing the ball, except for the play-action passes and short third downs and when Florida could not just pin their ears back and go after him.  Kiffin wanted Crompton to just move the chains and he was doing just that.  However, Kiffin could not stray away from the game and go for the kill because it would give Superman a chance to turn his day around, and give Meyer a chance to show off how explosive his offense is or could be, and then almost becomes not even close.

So, to summarize, I believe Tennessee could not make the final push to defeat the Gators because the threat of Tebow doing what Tebow does in most games kept Kiffin from opening up the offense and going for the win.

Now, onto the NFL and the Monday night game.  In order for the Dolphins to win, they needed to keep the ball on the ground and control the clock.  I have often said that their best offense is their defense, and vice versa.

What I mean by that is, when their defense is on the field, they are doing their job when they force a punt and give the offense the ball with good field position.  That gives the offense a better chance at scoring.  The Dolphins offense is their best defense when they are picking up first downs and moving the ball downfield and keeping the clock ticking down.

This plan was working to perfection for the Dolphins, and they were closer than “almost.”  They were outplaying Indianapolis and were holding onto the lead and to the ball.  Tony Sparano’s crew could not have been happier.  Except for one little problem—the Colts have Peyton Manning.

Manning was on the field for just under 15 minutes of the game, not even a full quarter!  However, when the final whistle blew, Manning was standing on top, as he has so many times before, with the Colts winning 27-23.

I know people have said all you need to do is give Manning a chance and the ball, and he will be able to score, but Monday night he proved it by picking apart Miami and proving (to me anyway) that he is the best quarterback in the game. 

Since Monday, I have been trying to think of quarterbacks that could do what Manning did: completely outthink and outperform a team that outplayed them the way the Dolphins did Monday night to the Colts.

I have come up with only one besides Manning—the Dolphins’ previous star QB, Dan Marino.  I just could not think of any other quarterbacks that were that accurate going deep downfield, and had a weak enough running game where that is a style of football they have to play.

I do not doubt Joe Montana’s or Tom Brady’s abilities to drive their team downfield late in games, but neither are the quick-strike type, and never have tey played that style of offense.  As for Brett Favre, he makes way too many stupid plays, and you could not afford any of those in that type of situation.

Now, the Dolphins still had time Monday to drive the ball downfield and they did not need to hurry too much.  They did need to hurry more than they did, and could not afford to call the two running plays they did to start the drive. 

Also, at the end of the day, Chad Pennington is not physically gifted like Peyton Manning is.  He manages games, he is great with a good running game, and he usually just has to pick up first downs and not turn the ball over.  If you need to strike quickly, Chad is not your guy, and showed that Monday night.

That being said, he was a Ted Ginn, Jr. big catch away from pulling that victory away from the Colts, and that is the most you could ask for out of Pennington.  If Manning was the quarterback on the Dolphins in that situation, then you could be upset if he does not find a way to get the ball into the end zone.  He is the caliber of quarterback that figures out how to do that and could go do that, and there are only a few of those ever to play in the NFL.

Have we learned anything new?  No.  Quarterback is the single most important position in sports, and I just helped prove an already proven point.  If you don’t think its important, then why did the Vikings just give Favre $25 million for the next two years?

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Week Two Roundup: Helter Skelter in the AFC South

 

“Why not us?”  

It’s becoming an all-too-familiar rallying cry for mediocre teams struggling to get over the hump.

Illusions of grandeur?  Perhaps, but these days any given season could be any given team’s year.  

The NFL is a sport that is rife with parity, thanks in no small part to its strict salary cap and revenue sharing.  It is arguably what makes it America’s most popular sport.  

Historically, no division in football better encapsulates this than the rugged NFC East.  And rightfully so, given that no team in that division has had a losing record since 2006.

Yet this year, the AFC South is poised to steal some of their thunder, with all four teams having a legitimate shot at making a serious playoff run.  

Some have a better chance than others, but no team in the division is a guaranteed two wins for its opponents.  The gap is closing, and the line between pretenders and contenders is becoming increasingly blurred.  

Here’s a brief dossier on all four teams; what needs to go right, what could go wrong, and the reality in between.

Indianapolis Colts

With Peyton Manning at the helm, ten or more wins are almost a given every year.  As long as he has at least one stud receiver, they will remain perennial Super Bowl contenders.   

It seems like almost every year that there are serious question marks regarding his supporting cast, yet he continues to keep his team playing at a high level.  In years past, the defense was suspect.  In other years, it was the injury bug catching up to older players.  

Nowadays, it’s his somewhat diminished receiving corps.  Anthony Gonzalez went down recently, leaving Reggie Wayne as the only proven threat.  But the inspired play of second year man Pierre Garçon has put their minds somewhat at ease.

In order to avoid a ho-hum (by Indy’s standards, anyway) 11-5 campaign and a second round playoff exit, they will need at least one other player to step up and make himself a superstar.  

Role players are important, but the Peyton and Reggie Show won’t cut it in the long run.

Tennessee Titans

An 0-2 start has many on the verge of panic in Nashville.  While the record doesn’t necessarily spell out the end of their season by any means, 0-3 just might.  

No team in the modern era has ever recovered from that to win a Super Bowl.  

The talent is there.  So is the play calling.  It’s their old nemesis; execution.  This is a team in desperate need of a win.  True, they can probably put together a run during their relatively easy second half schedule, but in this division, that might not be enough.  

As of late, Kerry Collins has been playing like he has on a Raiders uniform.  The Titans need him to channel his 2008 self ASAP.  Otherwise, Tennessee could be last year’s New England Patriots; 11-5 and sitting on their couch in January.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Losing handily to an inspired Arizona Cardinals squad bears no shame.  Neither does hanging tough with Indianapolis in their opener.  This team could best be described as “Tennessee Jr.” right now.  

Both are capable of playing better, and both have had their historically hard-nosed defenses shredded in recent weeks.  

The Jags also rid themselves of over-the-hill veterans and malcontents this past off season, and on paper, they’re poised for a decent season.  Granted, quarterback David Gerrard isn’t necessarily anybody’s definition of “the answer.”  But with their smash mouth style of play, he doesn’t have to be a gunslinger.  

Under coach Jack Del Rio, consistency hasn’t been this team’s strong suit.  Against the newly confident Houston Texans on Sunday, he would be wise to sell the game as a must-win for his players.  

Otherwise, they’ll find themselves awash in a sea of “shoulda, woulda, coulda’s.”  

Houston Texans

Getting blown out by an unproven Jets team is one thing. 

“Same old Texans,” was undoubtedly on the lips of fans everywhere.  

But to totally carve the Titans’ vaunted defense, (in Tennessee, no less), is cause for at least some measured optimism.

Suffice it to say that Matt Schaub and Co. are for real.  Every year, this team is a sexy pick for having a break out year.  Yet every year, something inevitably goes awry and they find themselves mired in mediocrity and unrealized potential.  

Yes, spirits are high in Houston, but that “something” this year could be their running game.  Last year’s rookie phenom Steve Slaton is off to a slow start.  The tornado’s not here yet, but the clouds are forming.  

While Schaub has proven that he can deliver on an important stage, it’s doubtful that he can maintain it over the next fourteen games if he doesn’t have run support.  All a team will have to do is blitz like crazy and double wide receiver Andre Johnson.  

But the fact remains that their schedule is moderately friendly and they’re oozing with confidence.  Those two things will be invaluable as they try to make their way to the postseason.

And that’s just the week two take on everything.  One bad play, one bad call or one key injury could literally remake the division.  

With history being rewritten every week, the mercurial AFC South promises to provide a script for the ages.     

 

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