Oakland Raiders: No Pain, No Gain

One of the articles I posted showed Oakland ranking above the Broncos in three categories. Notice, however, that the ranks are very close.

My intuition tells me that the Sunday, Sept. 27 game is going to be challenging.

We can meet the challenge if we do not take anything for granted.

Also, according to my analysis, we should NOT have loss the game with San Diego.

I was shocked during the game with San Diego. While I listened to the game in my car, I noticed we had a touchdown. By the time I got in my house and settled down to continue watching the game, the decision was reversed.

I am not going to argue why or why not that happened. Rather, I am making a strong appeal to the team that they play so well, so powerfully, that even the inconsistencies in the decisions of a referee will not neutralize the expected outcome of the game.

In other words, play hard, and win the game. There is a song, “No pain, no gain.” So, from that song we learn that sometimes we have to muster up both the spirit and will to succeed.

The spirit in which we do our job often transcends what is predicted by the numbers.

We work so hard until it hurts, but overall we gain that for which we aim.

Too many times in history, the spirit of the people overcame the odds for victory.

For example, there was a man named Gideon. He was confronted with a tough situation. He needed to use an element of surprise, and he needed men to demonstrate the right behaviors to execute his strategic plan.

As the story goes, those men would be cautious at all times. I repeat, the men would be cautious at all times. They would never take anything for granted.

To be in a state of alert may be painful, but it is worth it so that your opponents have no opportunity to overtake you.

A question is posed: In a tough situation, what do you need?

One answer would be that we need Oakland Raiders who are steadfast and unmovable in their readiness to play. The men of integrity who demonstrate that steadfast and unmovable behavior are the ones who must be given opportunity to play.

Now as I think ahead, I realize that there are going to be some challenges before us.

Other writers have cited the difficulty we had winning the earlier games. I conjecture that much more skill and energy will be needed to win the game between the Broncos and a couple of other teams in the schedule.

For example, here is a list and rank in the win category of some of our future opponents:

Rank         Wins

1              424   Dallas Cowboys

2              406   Oakland

3              378   New England

4              363   Titans

5              349   Buffalo

6              333   NY Jets

Each of the teams in this list were started in 1960.

We can learn from the story about Gideon. These are the questions which are important to consider:

What to do?

How many?

What type of men?

A battle, in the historical story, that had a high probability of loss or failure, was won because of

an element of surprise

powerful synergy

extreme attentiveness in executing the plan.

Somehow, this lesson must translate to the football field. The spirit of the Oakland Raiders, the determination, the perseverance, all must be so potent that the opponent is surprised and confused.

The Oakland Raiders and the Raider Nation must be so attentive to every detail, that the collective force of our commitment and determination to win will gush through the plays on the field, and carry us to victory.

The strain of the plan for total and unequivocal commitment to excellence in the execution of the plan to win may cause some pain.

Without that level of commitment to excellence, we would forfeit the gain that we so earnestly desire.

Finally, Betty Wright’s song says:

In order to get something
You got to give something
In order to be something
You got to go through something

Click here to hear: No pain, No Gain 

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These Week 3 Free Agents May Still Be Available

Did you miss the first wave of free agent players to pick up and are now scrambling? I may not have the answer, but let’s take a look at some players that could possibly start for you as well as some depth players.

QB Byron Leftwich, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers defense is horrible: sixth worst defending the pass, 282 yards per game; tied for fourth worst defending the run, 168 yards per game; and finally, second worst in scoring, allowing 33.5 points per game. That means Leftwich has to keep up with opponents.

He is averaging about 46 pass attempts per game for 286 yards and two touchdowns per game. View him as a backup right now with spot starter potential. As long as the Bucs don’t give up on the season and decide to go with Josh Freeman.

 

RB Justin Forsett, Seattle Seahawks: Just keep an eye on Forsett if you’re in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Why, you ask? In Week 2 he had six receptions for 67 yards that included eight targets. That was much more productive than his rushing numbers of 5-35-0, despite the above-average 7.0 yards-per-carry average, thus the PPR reference.

Edgerrin James supposedly will eventually see an opportunity to supplant starter Julius Jones.

However, Forsett is the one with the numbers, and though we know this could quickly change, if you have the roster depth, stash him for a couple of weeks and see how this pans out. As stated, PPR leagues only.

 

WR Davone Bess, Miami Dolphins: What I find interesting about Bess: 10 targets and 10 receptions! He catches whatever comes his way, and even though for the season he is only 10-86-0, in larger leagues he may be worth a flier to see how he does over the next few weeks. He is not great value right now—just an efficient player.

However, in the end, if you can fill your roster with bye week or injury fill-ins (if you don’t have quality depth) like Bess, you are better off than the owner who has inconsistent players for depth. Only look at him in deep leagues.

 

WR Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars: Sims-Walker is nothing fancy right now but has a season total of 6-106-1 that includes 10 total targets. However, I like him because starter Troy Williamson (torn labrum) is gone for the year and the team let wide receiver Nate Hughes go (team signed him to the practice squad).

In other words, they are short on receivers, and Sims-Walker is going to see several targets. He’s fragile, so there’s always concern regarding his health, but there are worse choices. He was an early sleeper by many analysts so don’t forget that.

 

For other players and detailed breakdowns, check out KFFL.com’s own waiver wire and other articles. Regardless of what you use, it’s up to you to make sure the player’s listed conform and are good fits with your league’s scoring rules.

Don’t forget, I’m a “Tweeter” and post what’s happening in a breaking or timely manner. I also point you to solid links outside the KFFL world that can help you win your leagues. Follow me at http://twitter.com/wdelpilar.

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Cincinnati Bengals Week 3 Preview: The Annual Pittsburgh Steeler Invasion

Dick LeBeau and his pack of wild attack dogs float down the Ohio River in a weather-beaten, black frigate this weekend looking to pillage and plunder the first football team it comes across.   The fair citizens of Cincinnati are alerted to hide away their children and precious metals because this angry, gruff bunch are worse than pirates; they’re Steelers.

 

In order for the Bengals to stand up against such villainy and protect their dwelling, they must adhere to the annual mantra of aggressive play and withstand Pittsburgh’s best shot to the face.  But more importantly this season, they must be completely prepared for the multiple angles of their attack.

 

Like the Bengals, this is a new breed of Steeler.  In the past few seasons, Pittsburgh moved away from the smashmouth running style we’ve been victimized by so often. This is partly because of multiple injuries to running backs last season and the maturation of Ben Roethlisberger.  They now run an offense that shows multiple formations and little dependency on one style of play.  Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians has kept enough core players to allow him to vastly expand their playbook over the years, and as a result, they are now essentially a pass-first team.

 

When Big Ben was younger and more wily, it seemed that keeping him inside the pocket produced better results than flushing him out and allowing him to improvise.  For whatever reason, the guy made more plays on the run or while being sacked than he did dropping back and throwing in rhythm.

 

But Roethlisberger has blossomed into a savvy, well-rounded QB, who still struggles at times with his accuracy, but excels in the ambiguous “intangibles” category.  No longer can opponents keep him in the pocket and wait for him to make a bad throw.  He’s still as strong and swashbuckling as ever, and blitzing him remains a risk in allowing the big play.

 

With Pittsburgh’s ground game struggling after the first two games, Arians runs wide receiver bubble screens (the trendiest play-call currently in the NFL), intermediate slants to Hines Ward, and dump-offs to Heath Miller in order to set up the deep crossing route or seam route to Santonio Holmes.

 

Pittsburgh somehow manages to lull defenses to sleep with the pass, rather than with the traditional pounding of the run.  Be that as it may, the Steelers have had a 100-yard rusher in each of the past seven wins at Paul Brown Stadium, and sometimes tradition has a way of hanging around.

 

Therefore, the defensive priority for the Bengals should be to stop the run first, then keep all passing plays in front of them and make tackles on short routes, and finally, like always, bring Ben down once they get their hands on him.

 

I wouldn’t expect to see as much linebacker and safety blitzing for fear of giving up the big play that always seems to surface when the Steelers come to Cincinnati.   Instead, they should rush their formidable front four, keep their safeties deep and force punts rather than gamble on turnovers.  If Geathers and Odom can produce half the chaos they created against Green Bay, it will make the other defensive assignments that much more manageable and should limit the shape-shifting Pittsburgh offense to a modest day at the office.

 

The Steelers defense, however, is not all that different.  They still have their merciless wizard LeBeau, masterminding the carnage his band of roughnecks leave behind at stadiums every weekend. 

 

LeBeau continues to fire off his heat-seeking blitzes at every given chance and still has enough beef up front to limit rushing yards.  What he won’t have this time is his bushy-maned psycho of a safety and No. 1 henchman, Troy Polamalu.  Even Polamalu’s backup, Tyrone Carter, is banged up and is questionable to play on Sunday.  Polamalu has tyrannized this city with devastating tackles and pick-sixes since he’s been drafted; he will not be missed.

 

The Bengals would like to run on the Steelers, but wouldn’t everybody?  It’s one thing to run all over a defense that claims it runs a similar scheme to Pittsburgh, and it’s another to do it against the real thing.  If teams could even occasionally run against Dick LeBeau and his goons, they wouldn’t maintain the stigma they’ve earned; they’re the best defense in the league for good reason.  While the offensive line has exceeded expectations up to this point, lining up across from this gruff bunch will be the ultimate test.

 

So that means Cincinnati will have to go to the air, and that puts the onus on the Golden Boy, Carson Palmer.  If the Bengals are to pull out a win, Palmer must play great.  His performance must be better than his average and he simply cannot make brainless mistakes like his two picks last week.

 

Typically, Pittsburgh does not give a quarterback much time, which means hot reads and underneath routes could be what moves the ball downfield.   If the Bengals pass-protection holds up well, or if they find success on shorter gains, then they can try something vertical to Ocho or Henry, but to force it deep would be playing into their hands.

 

It would not be surprising to see a conservative play-calling approach from Bob Bratkowski after all of his failed missions against this team in the past.   I would be prepared to see a lot of throws caught short of the marker in hopes that the receiver makes a play, and attempted screen plays on third-and-longish; better to play it safe than to play it wrong.

 

So, as the Steelers wash ashore and fall out of their vessel, laughing and cursing at all of us, and prepare to shove around the Bengals and their fans once again, they should encounter more resistance than normal from Cincinnati.  This Bengals team has grown up some and is stronger and more willing to fight these days. 

 

But alas, they continue to be their own worst enemy with self-inflicted mistakes, and against a team that feels like a despotic older sibling, that still won’t get it done.

 

Prediction: Steelers 24, Bengals 20

 

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Fantasy Football Fodder: What to Do with Fred Jackson?

The first answer that comes to mind is, “Play him”—this weekend anyway, as he takes on the New Orleans Saints. The Bills are going to need every bit of firepower they can muster to keep up with the high-octane New Orleans Saints.

Fred Jackson has 220 rushing yards (5.1 ypc) and 11 receptions for 108 yards and a TD. Last year Jackson had 571 yards (4.4 ypc) and three TDs and 37 catches for 317 yards, so clearly what he’s done is not a fluke.

The problem comes next week when Marshawn Lynch returns from his suspension. Even though Jackson filled in admirably for Lynch, things are gonna change.

Lynch is too talented of a back to keep on the sidelines. He has averaged 1,075.5 yards and 7.5 TDs on the ground while averaging 4.1 ypc. He has added 65 catches for 484 yards and a TD through the air. If he weren’t such a knucklehead, he probably wouldn’t have to worry about his role in the Bills offense.

In my opinion, Jackson is better suited for the Bills’ no-huddle offense. The time Lynch missed gives Jackson the advantage, especially considering how well he’s played. It make little sense to abandon that style and go with the more deliberate Lynch.

I’m not saying Lynch won’t get his reps; I just think he takes a back seat to Jackson. Even last year, long before the suspension, Jackson was heavily involved n Buffalo’s offense.

It may be hard to rely on either one after this week, but they both absolutely need to be on fantasy rosters. If I had to choose one to play in Week Four, I would lean towards Fred Jackson, barring injury of course.

Originally published at LestersLegends.com.

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QBER/Week 2: Manning, Schaub Move Up, Romo Tumbles

(QBER is short for Quarterback Efficiency Rating, a more comprehensive and easily understood system that places the emphasis where it belongs—the ability of a quarterback to move the ball, avoid turnovers and score touchdowns in comparison to his peers. A rating of 100.0 is average.)

After sub-par performances in their regular-season openers, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner started to climb the QBER charts in the second week of the season.

Manning shot up from 15th to fourth overall, while Warner moved from 23rd to 11th among quarterbacks who had taken part in a minimum of 37 pass plays this season, or one-half the league average.

 

A few observations after Week Two

While the NFL formula is generous to third-ranked Brett Favre largely because of his .771 completion percentage—is he the new Chad Pennington?—his QBER is a more reasonable sixth overall. Reason: His 4.1 net yards per pass play ranks near the bottom in the league.

The flip side is Marc Bulger, who has averaged more yards per pass play (4.2) than Favre despite a significantly lower pass completion percentage (.500).

Drew Brees is on top for the second week in a row. How good has the veteran been thus far? In simple terms, his 209.2 rating means he’s more than twice as good as the average quarterback.

Matt Schaub was the biggest gainer in Week Two, which saw him move from 26th to fifth on the strength of his net production of 361 yards, four touchdowns and zero turnovers last weekend.

Tony Romo experienced the biggest drop (second to 15th), primarily because of his three turnovers, one of which was returned for a touchdown.

Six quarterbacks have produced above the league average in each of the three prime categories: Brees, Schaub, Warner, Matt Ryan, and the Manning brothers.

Who are ranked Nos. 21 and 22? None other than Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, who have combined for five Super Bowl championships in their careers. Brady has fared well only in the turnover category, the one area in which Roethlisberger has come up short thus far.

Jake Delhomme bounced back after disastrous season-opener if only because he couldn’t have been worse. A repeat performance will give him a positive QBER for the first time this season.

The QBER leaders after Week Two of the season

1. Brees 2.092;
2. Ryan 1.583;
3. Edwards 1.449;
4. P. Manning 1.427;
5. Schaub 1.403;
6. Favre 1.4;
7. Orton 1.32;
8. Flacco 1.291;
9. E. Manning 1.223;
10. Sanchez 1.209;
11. Warner 1.141;
12. Hasselbeck 1.137;
13. Rodgers 1.128;
14. Rivers 1.037;
15. Romo 1.033;
16. Bulger 1.03;
17. Leftwich 1.018;
18. Collins 0.968;
19. Hill 0.917;
20. Garrard 0.912;
21. Brady 0.867;
22. Roethlisberger 0.852;
23. Russell 0.795;
24. Cutler 0.765;
25. Cassel 0.747;
26. Campbell 0.718;
27. Palmer 0.63;
28. Pennington 0.568;
29. Quinn 0.515;
30. Stafford 0.376;
31. Kolb 0.345;
32. Delhomme -0.046.

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Little Brother, Big Brother: Bengals Always Looking Up to Steelers

At 4:15 ET this Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will face off at Paul Brown Stadium in the first of their two regular season matchups.  This rivalry along the Ohio River has been physical, dramatic, emotional, and, well, lopsided.

The 2009 edition of the Bengals-Steelers rivalry made me take a step back and think about what kind of rivalry this really is.

Of course, this rivalry has to do with the fact they have been in the same hard-hitting, cutthroat division (AFC Central, and then the current AFC North) since 1970.  The Steelers owned the ’70s.  The Bengals owned the ’80s.  And the Steelers have owned everything since, including the one playoff matchup in 2006.

Bengals fans hate the Steelers.  They are dirty, they are lucky, Ben Roethlisberger isn’t that good, Hines Ward takes cheap shots…the list is longer than Polamalu’s hair. 

But as a diehard Bengals fan, none of those reasons make sense for me.  My hate for the Steelers can be described more accurately with one word: Jealousy.

Nothing sums this up better than what just happened five minutes ago.  I told my girlfriend on the phone I was writing an article on this topic.  And her response was this (mind you, she thought the Super Bowl was in September):

“Oh, you mean how the Steelers destroy the Bengals every time?”

How does she even know this? 

She didn’t know if her cable at home picked up ESPN.  If I told her Brett Favre was a rookie, she would believe me.  This shows that either a) she looked that up just to pick a fight, or b) I whine about losing to the Steelers so much she can recite it.

But she’s right.  I don’t hate the Pittsburgh Steelers because they know how to win, especially against my Bengals.  I’m simply jealous.

No organization in the NFL is more stable, more organized, and more consistent than the Pittsburgh Steelers.  From Dan Rooney down to the towelboy, everyone seems to know their role in the overall means to success.

Here’s a great contrast between a winning franchise and a losing franchise.  Take the number of coaches since 1969:

Pittsburgh: Chuck Noll.  Bill Cowher.  Mike Tomlin.

Cincinnati: Paul Brown.  Bill Johnson.  Homer Rice.  Forrest Gregg.  Sam Wyche.  Dave Shula.  Bruce Coslet.  Dick LeBeau (sound familiar, Steeltown?).  Marvin Lewis.

Both franchises have been in family ownership since their respective inceptions, but only one has had NO general manager.  Hint: it’s the same team that hasn’t won a Super Bowl.

And these are only a few examples of how these two franchises located on the same river are worlds apart.

Since 2000, the Steelers lead the series 15-4 (I could go further back, but let’s not beat a dead horse).  Since the Bengals “renaissance” in 2005, the Steelers have won seven of nine, including the notorious playoff matchup.  Yet the Bengals keep finding ways to trash talk.  They are known to make things interesting.

Chad Ochocinco is promising a Spanish-themed celebration this Sunday.  In 2005, T.J. Houshmandzadeh rubbed his cleats with the Terrible Towel, claiming the power has shifted in the AFC North to Cincinnati.  Countless jabs, hits, and public comments have been spilled in between.  All actions point to the idea that the Bengals will eventually gain the upper hand.

But when is that day going to come?  No Bengals fan can say with confidence it will be anytime soon. 

And I’m not looking for a flash of dominance.  Any team can do that.  I mean owning the series.  The Steeler organization is stable and knows how to win.  The Bengals organization has current owner Mike Brown’s daughter (Katie Blackburn) in line to take over as owner and probably general manager.

A losing franchise passed from father to daughter doesn’t exactly have “change” attached as added value.

Things just seem normal with the Steelers at the top and the Bengals jumping, straining to reach them.  The Steelers are known as winners, even with a sub-par season here and there.  The Bengals are known for their individual personalities and their collective penchant for losing.

So, again, I am jealous of our big brother.

I am jealous that the Steelers have a general manager.

I am jealous that the Steelers lose Bill Cowher after a championship…and win another one with a 36-year-old coach. 

I am jealous the Steelers have the respect of the papers, the pundits, the talking heads, and everyone that has any grain of knowledge about football.

I am jealous that Steelers fans probably don’t care about this rivalry as much as we do, because I don’t think they have nearly as much to gain from it.  If they beat us, nothing changes.  They throw a few words back at us.  Then, they look to the following week.  

If we beat them, we just won the Super Bowl.  We claim the division is ours.  We stomp, we talk, and plan our trip to the White House for punch and cookies.

That mindset alone sums up the different directions these teams have headed in over the past 20 years.

It seems 2009 might prove to be a turning point for the Bengals.  The Steelers, marred by the absence of Polamalu and a running game, are coming in town at the right time.  The Bengals are coming off an impressive road victory in Green Bay, looking to gain a game on their AFC North rivals.

We may win this one, and we may even win the next one in the Steel City.  But to ever catch up to big brother, the little brother has to do it consistently.

So forgive me, fellow Bengals fans, for not hating the Steelers.  I simply want to be them.

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Fantasy Depth Chart’s Week Three Sits and Starts

Another week of great NFL football leads us into another week of chaotic fantasy football. Lets look back at my predictions last week and on the season. To see the full article (including wide receivers and tight ends) check in at FantasyDC.com

 

Week 1: 11-5, Week 2: 15-8

 

HITs: TEN running backs (Start), Matt Forte (Sit), Steve Slaton (Sit), Julius Jones (Sit—was an obvious Week One wonder), McFadden (Start—the TD saves my prediction but I was off on this one), DEN running backs (not enough touchdowns, but still good yardage games for RBBC), Trent Edwards (Start), Brett Favre (Start—Two touchdowns saved a poor yardage game), Matt Ryan (Start—Has become a must start and won’t appear in any more articles), Dwayne Bowe (Start—Touchdowns define good wide receiver production), Johnny Knox (Start—His speed forced the Bears to start him the whole second half…don’t expect a repeat performance though), Antonio Bryant (Sit—He didn’t even play so this one doesn’t really count), Roy Williams (Sit—From Stud to Dud but you don’t hear the media talking about it), Dustin Keller (Start—Three touchdowns on the season and you could get him in the 12th-14th Round…when will people learn?), Owen Daniels (Start—72 yards and one touchdown is great tight end play)

MISSes: Brandon Jacobs (Start), Matt Schaub (Sit—This one stings…sorry everyone), Kurt Warner (Sit—Wasn’t a huge game, but it was very good), Palmer (Sit—Not a good week for sitting quarterbacks from me), Greg Jennings (Start—That’s a zero point ouch), Antwan Randle El (Start—Four receptions is not enough), Braylon Edwards (Sit—Six receptionss for 94 yards is a great game without scoring a touchdown), Antonio Gates (Sit—Five receptions for 78 yards isn’t good enough for Gates but it is for the average tight end…so he proves me wrong and upsets his owners)

 

RBs

Start:

Felix Jones vs. Carolina Panthers—The Panthers are giving up 168 yards per game thus far this year. With Marion Barber nursing a strained quad, it doesn’t really matter if he plays or not. Big plays are needed from the Dallas running game (to counter a hot/cold Romo) and Jones is going to be the player to provide them this week. Look for them to use a few more screens and short passing plays to get Felix into the open field but also expect an increase in standard looks/carries. Tashard Choice may snipe a couple carries, but Jones looked strong near the goal line against the Giants.

Ray Rice vs. Cleveland Browns—The Browns haven’t provided great weeks of fantasy football production to AP and a RBBC. This week the efficient Ravens will run all over them, keep them from scoring and then run out the clock. Both Rice and McGahee should be used at worst as flex plays, but I side with Rice this week to rebound after a poor Week Two.

Clinton Portis at Detroit Lions—The Lions have played a great first half twice in a row only to fall apart in the second half. I guess 30 minutes of good football is an improvement over last year? Portis was not overly impressive last week against the Rams and hasn’t really been his explosive self this year. But this is the week to have him in your starting lineup and then try to sell high.

 

Sit:

Leon Washington vs. Tennessee Titans—You noticing a trend when running backs play the Titans? This will be the first time a productive running back goes up against this Tennessee defense and it should be fun to watch. Washington is gaining steam as an excellent flex play at worst and a possible No. 2 running back depending on the matchup and roster situation.

This week will really come down to one big play, if Washington makes it, he should see a good stat line. But if the consistent Titans defense finally puts their foot down, Washington could be in for a long day of short receptions and negative yardage runs.

Darren Sproles vs. Miami Dolphins—The little guy lit up a very good Baltimore Defense to the tune of 171 receiving yards and one touchdown. The very physical Baltimore defense (4-3) doesn’t matchup well against pass catching running backs and Sproles put on a one man show. However, the Dolphins 3-4 fields some excellent defensive backs used to handling underneath throws and linebackers used to man coverage. Sproles should still see his fair yardage but expect a steep decline and no touchdowns.

Michael Turner at New England Patriots—The Pats have allowed third down running backs to produce against them the last two weeks. But Turner is the stud furthest away from that designation. Even with the loss of Mayo, the Pats will be able to stop the running game Turner brings by maintaining gap control and not overpursuing. However Matt Ryan should make them pay to the tune of a big big day.

 

QBs

Start:

Matt Schaub vs. Jacksonville Jaguars—This isn’t a knee jerk reaction to Schaub’s big week. Its an acknowledgment that the Jaguars are doing little right as a team and doing even worse in pass defense. Schaub looked great given time to throw the ball (something the Jags will provide him with) and even spread it around successfully. He won’t match last week’s numbers but he’ll be worth starting this week.

Ben Roethlisberger at Cincinnati Bengals—Fantasy owners should always be aware of division games. While it is important to looks back on historical production, that can sometimes lead to false conclusions (Slaton having two 100-yard games against the Titans last year).

However, Ben has showed some maturity in the passing game leading to many more passing attempts and better ball control. Interceptions could become a concern if pressure is consistent throughout a game but the Steelers offensive line may actually be showing signs of not being horrible and simply being bad (I’m a Steelers fan so I can say that). If the offensive line can give Ben the time, he’s shown he can make defenses pay.

Aaron Rodgers at St. Louis Rams—The Packers offense that looked so great in the preseason has not fully arrived here in the regular season. That all changes this weekend against the battered Rams. Rodgers is a must start for any team this week (unless you have Drew Brees).

 

Sit:

Kerry Collins at New York Jets—This is more for those out there that might view Collins Week Two performance as anything more than an aberration. Collins faces a very tough New York Jets defense that is punishing everyone they play. Collins should be used only in the worst of situations.

Matt Cassel at Philadelphia Eagles—The Eagles defense had a tough matchups last weekend against Drew Brees, this week they will take it out on a team much lower on the totem pole. I look for Cassel to be harassed and sacked often on Sunday. Keep him on your bench.

Byron Leftwhich vs. New York Giants—Leftwhich shouldn’t be starting anyways, but the high number of touchdowns and yards coming from him might lure owners into a false sense of productivity. The Giants should be balanced this week allowing a decent running game from Tampa Bay whiling making sure Leftwhich eats grass.

 

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San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings: Week Three Preview

Here the Vikings sit at an undefeated 2-0.  Minnesota has started the season in the best possible way record-wise, but the team still has a long way to go.

Their first two wins have come against what looks to be two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.

Week Three seems to be a little more difficult, as football legend Mike Singletary brings his physical 49ers team to face off against the Minnesota Vikings.

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Shaun Hill has done everything the team has asked of him, keeping turnovers to a minimum and completing passes to keep the drives alive.

Through two weeks, Hill has 353 yards passing, one touchdown, and zero interceptions.

Frank Gore has also proved to be rather impressive thus far, rushing for 237 yards and three touchdowns.

San Francisco has proved to be one of the surprise teams early on this season, as they’ve beat the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.

What’s even more impressive is the way they are winning games.  It’s not through a high-flying offense, but rather a stifling defense that ranks seventh overall at this point.

The 49ers secondary is a strong, veteran group that will likely not fall for the play action.  They play a tough zone and make it hard for opposing quarterbacks to get the ball off to the receivers.

The hard-hitting 49ers will have some stiff competition themselves, as they go up against the No. 1 rusher in the NFL, Adrian Peterson.

Peterson managed 180 yards rushing in Week One and added another 92 in Week Two. The problem here lies in the 49ers rushing defense that has only given up 106 yards rushing total.

Also, the last time Peterson faced the 49ers, he was held to just three yards on 14 carries.  But the 49ers forgot that Minnesota has two backs capable of having 1,000 yard seasons and allowed backup Chester Taylor to rush for over 100 yards instead.

Quarterback Brett Favre may be in a little trouble this week as Patrick Willis looks to put a pounding on the offense.

Favre has been sacked seven times already this season due to an ineffective offensive line in pass-protection.

The hasn’t stopped Favre from posting a 77.1 completion percentage and three touchdowns.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings look stronger than ever.  Antoine Winfield has played well so far this season.  Teams haven’t thrown his way hardly at all this season, and are instead targeting Cedric Griffin, a strategy that has proved to be costly more than once already this season.

The defensive line is getting solid pressure and has seven sacks in their first two games.

As far as injuries go, both teams a little dinged up, but nothing major.

Running back Frank Gore injured his ankle last week, but he will likely start anyway.  Backup running back Glen Coffee and guard David Baas should be ready as well.  Justin Smith was also on the injury report, but it’s been reported numerous times that it’s not injury related and he will play.

Running back Adrian Peterson, linebacker E.J Henderson, safety Madieu Williams, and tight end Jim Kleinsasser have all been limited in practice this past week, but all players should be ready for Sunday.

This looks to be a great game between a couple of 2-0 teams.  With the best two players from the 2007 draft going head-to-head (literally), this is going to be a battle of strength and endurance.  I’m not quite sure if the 49ers are for real yet, but they look to be heading in the right direction.

 

Key Matchups

Adrian Peterson vs. Patrick Willis: Peterson got lit up in the first meeting, but has the tide turned since then?

Frank Gore vs. Vikings defense: Can Frank Gore get the first 100-yard game against the Vikings since 2007?

Brett Favre vs. 49ers blitz: We know they’re going to blitz, but can youngsters John Sullivan and Phil Loadholt hold their own?

Shaun Hill vs. Vikings Front Seven: Can the 49ers hold the aggressive Vikings back?

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings 27, San Francisco 49ers 13

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The Michael Vick Experience Returns to the NFL Regular Season

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Broncos-Raiders Preview: Keys To Victory For Denver in Week Three

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos (2-0, first place AFC West) will make their annual trip to the “Black Hole” to take on the Oakland Raiders (1-1, second place AFC West) who are playing their third straight divisional opponent.

This game, although not hyped much by the national media, is a huge game for both teams and their fan bases, who are both beaming with optimism and confidence. The Broncos have enjoyed a thrilling, one of a kind victory as well as a dominant performance, and the Raiders have been on either side of two close, hard fought games.

This is a fairly new rivalry for most in the Broncos’ camp, and head coach Josh McDaniels thinks it is going to be a lot of fun.

“It means a lot to us. They are our—if you want to call them arch rival or what you want to categorize them as—but we get to play them twice a year. I think there are a lot of players on our team that are very familiar with their players. Sure, that is the same on their sideline and then their coaching staff.

We have got a guy or two from that organization here now. It is special when you get to play these division games early in the year on the road against a team that historically, you are no supposed to like. We know that, and they know it. It will be exciting for us to go there and meet the challenge.”

A lot of fans will discount either teams statistics heading into this game simply because of the rivalry, but the facts are too difficult to ignore.  The Broncos are superior statistically in every major team category.

Offensively, the Broncos average over 100 more yards per game than the Raiders, 86.5 more yards through the air, and 23 more rushing yards.  The Broncos also have a higher points per game average, third down conversion percentage, and lead in time of possession.

Defensively, the Broncos have allowed over 100 fewer yards per game in their first two games, 54.5 fewer passing yards, 55 fewer rushing yards, and 10.5 fewer points per game.  They also allow opponents a third down conversion roughly 27 percent of the time whereas Oakland’s opponents convert on third down 37 percent of the time.

This is an intense rivalry, and statistics have a very long time to change throughout the course of this year, but at this point, it is hard to ignore given the fact that each team has played two teams with bottom 10 defensive units.

I have no doubt that the Raiders will bring their “A” game to the Colosseum on Sunday afternoon, but the rivalry did lose a bit of luster when Mike Shanahan left town.  It was my understanding that the rivalry between the Broncos and Raiders became heated when Oakland fired Shanahan and despite Al Davis’ desires for Shanahan to not coach the Broncos, he went ahead and did so anyway.

Now that the Shanahan saga is over, new head coach Josh McDaniels has changed the culture in Denver, and the players are buying into his methods.  Perhaps the most underrated move made this off-season by any NFL franchise was McDaniels luring Mike Nolan to be the Broncos’ defensive coordinator.

Nolan has brought credibility to the most surprising defense in the NFL, which is currently the number one defense in terms of points allowed at 13 over two games.  His blitzing schemes are complex, and the beef up front has gone from lean to mean in seemingly no time.

Similarly, the Raiders have made some very solid additions to their defensive front in free agent acquisition Greg Ellis and blockbuster trade acquisition Richard Seymour.

Here are what I think are some of Denver’s keys to victory when they head to Oakland for this week three rivalry contest.

 

1.  Running the Ball and Stopping the Run

The Raiders’ biggest strength is clearly running the ball, and how could it not be?  They took Darren McFadden with the fourth overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, and got a steal in 2007 in Michael Bush.  They also have Justin Fargas, who may be the most complete overall back on the team’s roster.

All hands are expected to be on deck for the Raiders this week, and they are facing stiff competition in Denver’s revamped run defense.  The Broncos added a bunch of pieces this off-season to beef up their front line, and so far the new group has done a tremendous job, allowing only 140 yards rushing over the first two games of the season.

If the Broncos can take away the big play from the Raiders run game, they will force the game over to JaMarcus Russell, and as many Raider fans will tell you, they have not done the greatest job of keeping their defense off the field so far this season.

It is absolutely critical for the Broncos to maintain their gaps on defense and keep the blitz packages surprising for the Raiders.  As long as the big play is eliminated, the Broncos should be able to keep the Raiders offense off the field.

It is also key that the Broncos run the ball effectively.  Correll Buckhalter leads the AFC West in rushing yards so far this season, and is second among starting running backs in yards per attempt at 7.2 yards per carry.

The Broncos would also love to see rookie Knowshon Moreno find a groove. After a disappointing game one we saw significant improvement against Cleveland last weekend.  Denver needs to get Moreno more involved in the offense, and now that he is fully healthy, it seems as though they will.

 

2.  Broncos Pass Defense vs. JaMarcus Russell

As was one of the keys against Cleveland and Brady Quinn, the Broncos need to force the issue with Russell, who is not nearly as athletic as Quinn.  Russell has outstanding arm strength, and has proven over the first two games that although his completion percentage is the worst in the NFL, he is capable of leading his team down the field when it matters.

Still, Russell has been somewhat of an Achilles heel for the Raiders.  He is extremely inaccurate unless the receiver is wide open, and unfortunately for him, the Broncos are tops in this division and third in the NFL overall in quarterback sacks.  They are also going to be without veteran lineman Robert Gallery, and will have to count on second year player Mario Henderson to keep JaMarcus’s blind side clean.

The Broncos need to put pressure on JaMarcus Russell, and it would be smart to attack from the left side with Elvis Dumervil, similar to the approach they took against Joe Thomas last week.

The oft-penalized Cornell Green is really no match for the quicker Dumervil, and if Dumervil can provide consistent pressure, the Raiders drives will be derailed by sacks and holding penalties.  This is a matchup the Broncos really need to take advantage of.

Of course, along with pressure comes poor decisions by the quarterback, and Russell can ill afford to make mistakes against Denver’s secondary which is veteran laden, very athletic, and very smart.

 

3.  Kyle Orton’s Efficiency

Orton has the 11th best quarterback rating in the NFL so far this season, and has yet to turn the ball over.  His fourth quarter quarterback rating of 152.1 is the best in the NFL, and he has done a great job so far for the Broncos.

The Raiders will be his toughest test of the season so far, as they have a very athletic group of linebackers and a defensive backfield that is underrated.

Nnamdi Asomugha leads a group that includes Chris Johnson, Michael Huff, controversial rookie Michael Mitchell, Hiram Eugene, and Tyvon Branch.  Each and every one of these players has one common denominator: speed.

The Broncos counter with a top tier group of receivers and tight ends led by Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall, who oddly enough are being outdone by the elders at the receiver position.  Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney lead the team in receiving, and Tony Scheffler provides a mismatch at the tight end position.

Unlike Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton does not seem to force the issue to his receivers and simply takes what is given to him or throws the ball away.  The Broncos have not been stellar offensively in the first half of games, and Orton needs to get on the same page as his receivers. 

If the first key can prove true and the Broncos are able to run the ball effectively, all Orton will have to do is make good decisions with the ball and continue his solid but not spectacular play.

 

Here is my positional breakdown of the two teams

Quarterback:  Broncos

Running Back:  Raiders

Wide Receiver:  Broncos

Tight End:  Raiders

Offensive Line:  Broncos

Defensive Line:  Push

Linebacker:  Broncos

Defensive Backs:  Broncos

Special Teams:  Raiders

Coaching:  Broncos

Advantage:  Broncos

 

As is common in these matchups, this game could be won in the early stages based on momentum and whoever can quickly establish the most consistent run game.  I think the Broncos have the decided advantage up front offensively, and both defensive fronts have played well this season.

This should be another exciting chapter in the Broncos-Raiders rivalry.

 

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