Giants Spoil Cowboys’ Billion Dollar Party

The New York Giants defeated the Dallas Cowboys in Jerry Jones’ new infinity dollar stadium by a score of 33-31. Last week I ranked the top ten games of this rivalry since the turning of the millennium. If I were to remake the list, this game would likely only be bested by the Giants’ playoff win.

Let’s look at what made this game so great.

If Cowboys Coach Wade Phillips were a cartoon character, he’d be Gil from the Simpsons.

The offensive game ball goes to Eli Manning and his two wide receivers of choice: Mario Manningham and Steve Smith. ESPN lists Eli Manning as having “targeted” a receiver 34 times. 13 went to Smith and 13 to Manningham, leaving only eight for the rest of the team. As opponents start to focus more on these two, others in the Giants offense will have to step up.

Last week I said Mario Manningham’s game reminds me of Greg Jennings of the Packers and Steve Smith of the Panthers. What I meant was “Mario Manningham is Jerry Rice.”

Seriously though, I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but Super Mario looks like he could become the number one receiver this team has been missing since a bit of real estate became available in Plaxico Burress’ thigh. He had ten receptions, 150 yards and a TD, and he looked as good as anyone could have expected. With the ball in his hands, he’s as slippery as a jellyfish.

Steve Smith really opened my eyes too. Where as I thought Manningham could one day turn into a big receiving threat, I always thought Smith was destined to remain a slot receiver/ third down specialist. But his performance this season is changing my mind.

His numbers (10 receptions, 134 yards and a TD), are almost identical to Manningham’s, yet Mario seems to be getting more buzz. He just has the ability to get open, which can’t be taught easily. He made Orlando Scandrick look like a second-teamer all day.

Once Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon return, Eli Manning will have a full shed of tools to choose from on offense, not one of which includes Sinorice Moss.

Speaking of the third best wide receiver named Moss currently in the NFL, it’s been a rough time going for Sinorice. I don’t want to use the word “useless,” but he’s not a factor on offense, he’s never been anything more than ineffective as a kick returner, and now he can’t even fall correctly. Moss failed to fall on a Felix Jones fumble on a kickoff, instead trying unsuccessfully to run with it. Luckily Bryan Kehl was there to pick up the pieces, but Moss’ days could be numbered.

Kehl had another big special teams play, downing a Jeff Feagles punt inside the five after Terrell Thomas whiffed on it. Kehl just picked up the pieces all day on special teams.

Eli Manning had one of his best games as a Giant, statistically speaking and in every other possible measurement: tangibles, intangibles, outtangibles, and semi-tangibles. 25-for-38, 330 yards, two TDs, zero INTs, 110.6 QB rating. If you still think he’s overrated…well I can’t think of a clever and snappy way to finish that statement, so I will just have to disagree. Respectfully, of course.

I’m not afraid of heights, but I am afraid of weights. As in, a video screen that was as much as a 747 jet hanging above a football field, suspended by a bunch of metal strings. If I was on that field, I’d be looking up every other minute to make sure that video screen wasn’t about to fall on me.

Defensive game balls go to Kenny Phillips and Bruce Johnson. Phillips, is playing with an injured knee, and Johnson was an undrafted free agent. Both made key plays on defense. Johnson positioned himself well to intercept an errant Tony Romo pass and return it for a touchdown. Phillips also positioned himself nicely in centerfield for his second interception of Romo. As for his first interception…

On his first interception, Phillips was beaten by Jason Witten, but Romo threw the ball behind his receiver. The ball hit off of Witten’s outstretched hand, and the ref ruled it incomplete. Unfortunately, the ball never hit the ground. The pigskin bounced off Witten’s foot and stuck into the unsuspecting arm of Kenny Phillips. Phillips ran it back to the end zone, pleading for the zebras to let the play continue.

Replays confirmed that it was an interception, but the touchdown was disallowed because the play was whistled dead. Fortunately, the Giants scored on a 22-yard Manningham reception on the ensuing drive. But this could have been a key missed call by the ref, who was standing only a few feet from the play. Yes, it was a fluke play, but the ref was in perfect position to see the ball.

The debut of Michael Boley should give the Giants someone who can help cover tight ends and running backs in the middle of the field. It’ll take some more time for him to be fully acquainted with the defense, but No. 52 was all over the place on Sunday night. He and Kenny Phillips led the Giants in tackles, each with seven.

The Giants got destroyed on the ground, allowing 251 rush yards. Offensively, they compiled only 97 yards. Not too un-shabby. Coughlin will have a lot to work on this week before the Giants travel to Tampa. I’m not that worried, because the talent is definitely there on both lines, but they need to figure out a way to start controlling the line of scrimmage the way they did last season.

Next time they play the Cowboys, they can’t expect to win if they get dominated like that in the trenches again.

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2008 Playoff Teams Struggle To Start 2009

Two games into the 2009 NFL season and a few surprises have arisen. Three playoff teams from last year have started the season at 0-2. The Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, and the Carolina Panthers have started their year in a hole that will take a miracle to get out of.

The Miami Dolphins have lost to the Atlanta Falcons and the Indianapolis Colts this season.  Chad Pennington is struggling with a 75.9 QB rating. Pennington has thrown two INTs verse one touchdown.

There are a few bright spots for the Dolphins this season. Ronnie Brown has 179 yards on 34 carries so far this year and Ted Ginn Jr. has 134 yards on 13 receptions. If this pace stays up Brown will run for 1280 yards and Ginn will catch for 1072 yards.

Miami will travel to San Diego this weekend then tackle division rivals Buffalo and New York at home in the following weeks.

It is a very good possibility that the Dolphins will be 0-5 heading into BYE WEEK.

The Carolina Panthers have started the season with loses to Philadelphia and Atlanta. Quarterback play is the key to the Panthers terrible start with Jake Delhomme sitting at a 45.3 quarterback rating and questions abound about if he should be the starter. Delhomme has five INTs to one touchdown so far this year.

Steve Smith is one of the only bright spots on this team with lots of talent. Smith has 11 catches for 152 yards so far this season. The two headed running back duo are not doing too bad with each running back over 100 yards for the season and both on pace for at least 800 yards rushing this season. The defense has struggled in stopping the run so far this season giving up 168 yards a game.

Carolina will travel to Dallas this week then get a break before hosting Washington in week five.

Look for Carolina to go 0-3 then regroup and get a win in week five against Washington.

The Tennessee Titans started the season with losses to Pittsburgh and the Houston Texas. The Titans lost both games by three points.

While the offense hasn’t looked totally bad it hasn’t looked great. Kerry Collins sits at a respectful 85.4 rating and has three touchdowns to two INTs. The key to the offense is star running back Chris Johnson who has 254 yards rushing and 10 catches for 98 yards receiving with three touchdowns total. Justin Gage and Kenny Britt are both having decent starts to their season with 105 and 107 yards respectfully.

The Titans defense has given up almost 700 yards of passing offense while holding the running game to only 99 through two games.

The Titans will travel to the Jets and the Jaguars before coming home to play the Colts in Week five.

The Titans will regroup and win two out of the next three and be at 2-3 heading into week six.

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Losing Hardly A Team Effort In Miami

It’s time to challenge whoever it was that coined the old sports adage “you win as a team and you lose as a team.”

Case study: the 2009 Miami Dolphins.

Very few of the franchise’s losses in my lifetime (1985-present) have been a team effort. In the Dan Marino era it was always the fault of the defense. In the A.D. (After Dan) years, the offense has struggled to score 17 points per game, negating one of the NFL’s best defenses.

But this is not going to be a lesson in team history because I don’t need to look any further than the first two weeks of this season to make my point.

Last night the Dolphins hosted a Monday Night Football game for the first time since 2004, losing 27-23 to the Indianapolis Colts after choking away a late lead.

This one was one defense. After putting up a stinker against Atlanta in Week 1, which I’ll get into more later, the Dolphins offense was perfect against the Colts.

Yes, perfect.

Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time and if you can find a way to stop him, you will beat the Colts 100 percent of the time. It’s not easy, but the best way to go about it would be to run the ball effectively and control time of possession, keeping Manning off the field.

How did Miami do in those categories Monday night? They rushed for 239 yards on 49 carries, with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combining for 205 of them, an average of 4.9 yards per carry. 

And get this: the Dolphins held the ball for 45 minutes and 7 seconds to Indianapolis’ 14 minutes and 53 seconds. That isn’t a typo. The Colts played offense for less than a quarter and were still able to score 27 points and win the game.

That’s without the help of a short field or a cheap touchdown by the defense or special teams. Miami didn’t turn the ball over until Chad Pennington was intercepted on the last pass of the game when the clock stood at zero. 

Indianapolis scored the first points 12 seconds into the game on an 80-yard pass and the winning points were scored 32 seconds after Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter hit a 45-yard field goal to put Miami ahead 23-20 with 3:50 remaining. 

The worst part is there are no excuses for this once-proud defense to fall back on. They weren’t playing on tired legs in the fourth quarter, which can happen in the sweltering heat of South Florida. They were only on the field for 35 plays for cryin’ out loud! That is less than a half’s worth of snaps in an average NFL game!

It wasn’t the refs fault since Miami was whistled for just 20 yards worth of penalties, and I know the Colts have Manning, but this is not 2006.

Reggie Wayne is great and Dallas Clark is a nice player, but they have no running game and it wasn’t Marvin Harrison who took a receiver screen 48 yards to score the winning touchdown, it was Pierre Garcon. Who? 

When asked how a team could possibly lose a game after dominating the ball the way the Dolphins did, Pennington said he was “at a loss for words.” That’s exactly what he should have said because it’s Jason Taylor and Joey Porter, the captains of the defense, who have the explaining to do. 

So Week Two was on Taylor, Porter and Co, but boy was Week One a different story.

In the 19-7 loss to the Falcons the Dolphins offense was, to put it kindly, pitiful. After committing a historically efficient 13 turnovers during the entire 2008 season, the offense gave it away four times against Atlanta, and those mishaps turned into nine points.

Pennington’s crew only mustered 259 yards of total offense and didn’t score a point until the 3:22 mark of the fourth quarter. The crazy thing is Atlanta didn’t put the game away until Jason Elam hit a 50-yard field goal with 7:35 left to make it 19-0. 

Why is that so crazy you ask? Because thanks to turnovers by the offense and poor special teams coverage, the Falcons were able to start six possessions on Miami’s side of the field. An offense averages about 12 possessions per game, so if half of them are starting on your side of the 50 yards line, you’re in trouble.

But the Dolphins defense allowed just one score in Atlanta’s four trips to the red zone, held Michael Turner to 65 yards on 22 carries and gave up 281 yards of total offense, only 22 more than the pathetic Miami offense had that afternoon. 

Now I know Matt Ryan isn’t anywhere close to being at the same level as Manning, but there is no question that the Falcons have more weapons and a more balanced offense then the one Indianapolis fielded last night, so where was the unit that showed up in Atlanta?

And why couldn’t the offense control the ball the way it did versus the Colts against an equally suspect Falcons defense?

Last year’s transformation from a 1-15 bunch of losers to an 11-5 division champion was even more amazing because Miami rose to that level after starting the season 0-2.

That group didn’t come together until Week 3, in a now legendary (thanks to the unveiling of the Wildcat) 38-13 beating of the New England Patriots in Foxboro.

One year later the scene is set almost the same. The Dolphins are 0-2 and must beat a Super Bowl contender, the San Diego Chargers, on the road in order to keep their team bus from veering into the No Playoffs Zone, which is the road you’re stuck on at 0-3.

Tony Sparano can use the New England game as motivation and proof that it can be done. Regardless of what tactic he chooses, he better find a way to get the whole to play at a high level, rather than just some of its parts.

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Jim Zorn Is Out of His League As Redskins’ Head Coach

The Redskins evened their record at 1-1 with their underwhelming defeat of the visiting St. Louis Rams. A win is a win in the NFL, but a 7-9 win over the worst team in the NFL raises questions for the team.

It is difficult to place the blame on any one player or coach so early in the year because there are plenty of games left to play.

That being said, if Jim Zorn doesn’t step up his red-zone play calling, the Redskins are never going to beat the better teams in the NFL.

Pete Prisco wrote in his Week Two grades that “Jason Campbell was efficient, but he didn’t make it happen in the red zone.”

There is no doubt that Campbell was efficient against the Rams, completing 23 of 35 for 242 yards, but claiming he came up short in the red zone is absurd.

In the four red-zone appearances, Zorn called five passes to nine runs. Four of the passes were thrown by Campbell, and one by Clinton Portis.

All of Campbell’s throws reached the end zone, two were off target and the other two were dropped. Two touchdown passes were dropped, one by Devin Thomas the other by Mike Sellers.

Jim Zorn didn’t call a single pass play in the red zone after the first quarter.

He did call a halfback option for Portis, who overthrew Chris Cooley in the end zone.

Zorn’s playcalling seemed to shy away from the passing game despite Jason Campbell having led several drives to the red zone through the air.

In 18 games as head coach for the Redskins, Zorn’s offense has scored 20 or more points on seven occasions. Of those seven outings, only two of the opposing defenses ranked in the top 10 for NFL defenses.

Jim Zorn may be heading into his final 14 games as head coach of the Washington Redskins. Sadly enough, if he goes, so does Jason Campbell.

Jason Campbell has performed to the best extent that Zorn’s play calling has allowed him. He has no room to make mistakes that other quarterbacks have. Zorn’s lack of trust in Campbell will be his and Campbell’s downfall.

If Zorn does intend on keeping his job, he needs to adjust his play calling in the red zone to incorporate less trickery and more consistency.

The team drafted Malcolm Kelly, Fred Davis, and Devin Thomas for a reason, and that reason is the red zone.

Why haven’t we seen it yet?

When it comes down to it, Zorn is simply out of his element. He is a quarterback’s coach who fell into a head coaching job. He can’t be blamed for the position he is in, but he can certainly do a bit more with it than he has been.

The Redskins will be in for a rough season if Zorn insists on putting handcuffs on Jason Campbell. He needs to give Campbell room to adjust plays and make mistakes.

Campbell can’t learn from mistakes he isn’t allowed to make.

Jim Zorn’s days as head coach are indeed numbered. Daniel Snyder is an impatient man and will not hesitate to oust Zorn in favor of a different coach.

Just ask Norv Turner.

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Week Three NFL Picks

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.

 

Game of the Week: 49ers 19 @ Vikings 23

Week Three’s only game featuring two undefeated teams includes two top-10 teams in our latest NFL power rankings.

While we still like Arizona as the best team in the NFC West, San Francisco is a serious playoff contender (that has two division wins already) with a strong, tough defense and impressive running game.

The 49ers will travel to Minnesota to face another team with those attributes that is just as hungry to go 3-0. The Vikings will be playing in their home opener, so the Minnesota fans are guaranteed to be rowdy for this marquee NFL game.

In the projected boxscore, Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson are both more likely than not to score touchdowns. Shaun Hill completes 16-of-25 passes for 183 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.8 interceptions. In a similar effort, Brett Favre completes 16-of-26 pass attempts for 193 yards, 1.2 TDs and 0.9 interceptions.

The team stats in this game are almost mirror images of each other. The Vikings only discernible advantages, besides homefield, is that they rush for eight more yards on two less caries to outgain the 49ers by 0.5 yards-per-carry.

Otherwise, this is a very even matchup.

Minnesota wins and stays undefeated 59.1 percent of the time and by an average score of 23-19.

The Vikings are full touchdown favorites though, so they only cover the spread 41.1 percent of the time. The 49ers win against the spread 55.1 percent of the time (Vikings win by exactly seven 3.8 percent of the time).

The total line is 40.5, making the Over the better option, yet a very weak play as it is just 52.8 percent likely.

Last week, we correctly predicted all of our featured games including the Upset, Lock, and Game of the week. We actually hit all three of our projected upsets (ARI over JAX, OAK over KC and NYJ over NE) and went 67 percent against the spread.

To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date accuracy, click here.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

NFL Week 3
Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Cleveland @ Baltimore	88.4	14-30	Boxscore
Carolina @ Dallas	76.1	16-27	Boxscore
Jacksonville @ Houston	75.7	17-27	Boxscore
Tennessee @ New York Jets	74.1	13-23	Boxscore
Kansas City @ Philadelphia	73.0	16-26	Boxscore
Miami @ San Diego	67.3	21-28	Boxscore
San Francisco @ Minnesota	59.1	19-23	Boxscore
Indianapolis @ Arizona	56.7	24-27	Boxscore
Atlanta @ New England	56.1	20-24	Boxscore
Denver @ Oakland	43.3	22-20	Boxscore
Chicago @ Seattle	37.9	17-15	Boxscore
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati	37.9	20-18	Boxscore
Washington @ Detroit	29.6	21-15	Boxscore
Green Bay @ St. Louis	26.8	25-19	Boxscore
New Orleans @ Buffalo	16.7	33-22	Boxscore
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay	13.2	27-14	Boxscore

 

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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Early Thoughts on The Broncos-Raiders Week Three Matchup

Well, it is a good thing the Oakland Raiders have one of the NFL’s best punters, because they might be using him a lot on Sunday.

When the first place Denver Broncos (2-0) head to Oakland to take on the Raiders (1-1), they will do so boasting the NFL’s number one defense after allowing a combined 13 points in their first two games against Cincinnati and Cleveland.

The Raiders played well against reigning division champion San Diego on Monday night in week one, but were unable to stop Darren Sproles really at all, and lost a heartbreaker.  In week two, they scratched out a win against lowly Kansas City on the road with a late touchdown by Darren McFadden.

This matchup with the Raiders, aside from being one that is on the road, is very favorable for the Denver Broncos.

Oakland is not a good passing team, and quite honestly, they are just not a good offensive team, ranking 24th in scoring and 29th in total offense.  Denver’s number one defense was tested by Carson Palmer, dominated Brady Quinn, and they should have no troubles keeping JaMarcus Russell in a bottle.

Denver’s biggest asset heading into this week three matchup is their run defense, which has absolutely mystified opposing offenses.  They held Cleveland to only 56 rushing yards last week, and Cincinnati was only able to net 76 yards from Cedric Benson.

While the Broncos’ defensive strength is stopping the run, Oakland’s biggest offensive threat is running the ball with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush.

McFadden has been, to me, their most impressive running threat this season.  He is fast, a good receiver, and he showed me against San Diego that he can lower his shoulder into a defender and pick up extra yards.

Bush is a powerful back inside the tackles who is deceptively fast in the open field.  He does not have a great burst off the line of scrimmage, but if he can get to the second and third levels, he is hard to bring down.

Oakland’s best offensive weapon is Zach Miller, their third year tight end.  Miller always seems to find a way into the open field, and has some of the most sure hands in the NFL.  He is a rising star in this league, and the Broncos will have the chore of defending him this week.

Defensively, Oakland has a much improved defensive line, a rising star at linebacker in Thomas Howard, and one of the NFL’s best cover cornerbacks in Nnamdi Asomugha.

Along the line, the Raiders added defensive ends Richard Seymour (New England) and Greg Ellis (Dallas) to improve their dreadful pass rush, and so far, they have done a serviceable job.

Oakland’s linebackers and secondary are very fast, and also very young.

So how does Denver get to the winner’s circle when they travel to Oakland on Sunday?  Here are some of my early thoughts as to how Denver can win this game:

 

1.  Continue to Stuff the Run

Denver’s run defense has been phenomenal this season, and it started with San Francisco in week one of the preseason.  The Broncos added Ronald Fields, Vonnie Holliday, Ryan McBean, Chris Baker, and Le Kevin Smith to beef up their front line this offseason, and so far, they have done a fantastic job.

Brian Dawkins and Andra Davis have also been critical in Denver’s improved run defense, which ranked among the league’s worst in 2008.  In fact, Dawkins and Davis have respectively led the Broncos in tackles in consecutive weeks.  Dawkins had 11 stops in week one, and Davis led the Broncos with 10 in week two.

It is going to be crucial for the Broncos to give McFadden and Bush fits so as to force JaMarcus Russell to beat them on Sunday.

 

2.  Keep the Pass Rush Strong

The Broncos have seven sacks in two games, four from converted defensive end Elvis Dumervil who is now lining up at outside linebacker. 

Seven sacks may not seem like a lot to a Steelers or Ravens fan, but for the Broncos, it is a huge step in the right direction for a team that has had absolutely no semblance of a pass rush since the Orange Crush days.

The Raiders have allowed only three sacks this season, but they will be missing their best offensive lineman, Robert Gallery for the next four to six weeks.  For the most part, they were able to shut down the Chargers’ pass rush, and the Chiefs didn’t have much luck either.

The Broncos will be the Raiders’ third divisional opponent to give the Raiders’ offensive line a test this season already.

Dumervil and company need to keep the heat on JaMarcus Russell, who is a very difficult quarterback to bring down due to his massive size.

 

3.  Keep Improving Offensively

The Broncos were dreadful against Cincinnati week one on offense.  They only had 10 first downs, and if not for the 87 yard play by Brandon Stokley would have undoubtedly finished week one with the league’s lowest offensive yardage total.

In week two, Denver was not as hot to start the game offensively, but as the game progressed, so did Kyle Orton and the Bronco offense.

They were able to score 27 points against the Browns while racking up 449 yards of total offense including nearly 190 rushing yards.

Oakland’s defense has been stingy in terms of allowing opponents to score, ranking ninth in that particular category, but they have not been shy at all about giving up yards.

In fact, the Raiders have allowed opponents a total of 44 first downs and as a result are ranked 23rd in total defense.

The Broncos’ offensive line is among the best in the NFL, and when the skill players come around, this unit could be dangerous.  Kyle Orton is not staggering, by any means, but he has yet to make any mistakes, and the running game for the Broncos is finally getting healthy.

Oddly enough, Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney lead this team in receiving in the first two games, which is scary for opposing defenses in a sense that Brandon Marshall has yet to fully come around, and Eddie Royal is receiving double teams more often than LeBron James.

If and when Marshall gets fully acclimated and comfortable in this offense, he will take pressure off of Royal, and this passing game just became even scarier.

Kyle Orton said on Monday that if he and his receivers could be on the same page mentally on every play, and if everybody did their job, this offense would “put up a lot of points.”

 

Keep the Turnover Margin in Your Favor

The Broncos are +4 in the turnover margin for the first two games, so it is no coincidence that they are also 2-0.

Oakland is +1 in the turnover margin, and all three of their interceptions have come from one source:  former first round safety Michael Huff.

JaMarcus Russell has thrown two picks, and has been erratic with his throws.  Over the first two games, his completion percentage is the worst in the NFL at 35.2 percent, and his overall rating is an abysmal 46.6.

I will not say it is going to be easy, but if the Broncos are going to have a field day against any quarterback, it is undoubtedly going to be against the most inaccurate one in the league, or basic logic would indicate so anyway.

While Kyle Orton’s completion percentage of just over 55 is not staggering, he has the 11th best quarterback rating in the NFL at 90.9 and also the 11th most passing yards at 506.

 

This is going to be a big game for the Broncos.  Many Denver fans felt it absolutely necessary if not mandatory to start the season 3-0 before entering an eight game stretch against seven playoff teams, and they have set themselves up to do just that.

This is a very “winable” game against the Raiders, despite the fact that it is on the road in a relatively hostile environment.

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Joke-A-Thon: The New York Giants Vs. The Dallas Cowboys

 

 

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Indianapolis Colts’ Recipe for Improvement

The Indianapolis Colts got a win Monday night against the Dolphins, but most pundits will tell you that they can’t win very many games in that fashion.  The team gave up 239 yards rushing and Peyton Manning only had the ball for 14:53. 

Against all odds, Manning willed the team to victory.  Maybe they can win games that way, but they don’t have to.  Here are five things they can do to put teams away the right way.

 

1. Run the Ball

If you read any article or see any highlight or listen to any radio show that claims the Dolphins “held” the Colts to just 61 yards, abandon that news source forever.  Statistically, the Colts were the better rushing team on Monday night; running the ball just wasn’t a part of their game plan.

The Colts actually had a better average per rush than the Dolphins, gaining 5.5 yards per carry on the ground.  The difference is that the Dolphins, despite slightly less success, ran the ball 41 times and the Colts only bothered to call a run play 11 times.

And these statistics aren’t skewed by one big run that boosted the Colts’ rushing average.  The team’s longest run was 15 yards.  If anything, they’re skewed against the Colts, because that includes a three yard sack-evasion by the infinitely nimble, fleet-of-foot Peyton Manning.  The Colts’ running backs averaged a stellar 5.9 yards a carry.

At that average, the Colts would never even have to convert a third down if they ran the ball every play.

 

2. Send Tim Jennings to the Practice Squad

The Colts’ defense was on the field for an absurd 84 plays on Monday night, partly because the offense scored every 38 seconds, but mostly because they couldn’t stop Miami on third down.

The Colts’ defense couldn’t get off the field because every 3rd-and-long Miami ran a 12-yard out-route in front of cornerback Tim Jennings, who typically gave Dolphin receivers a 45 yard cushion at the snap.  

I understand the strong desire to prevent “big-play” Chad Pennington from going deep, but when a safety arrives to make a tackle on an out-route BEFORE the cornerback in a cover-two defense (where the cornerback is responsible for the short zone), there is a significant problem.

I have never been critical of Jennings before, and in 2008 when he replaced Marlin Jackson in the starting lineup due to injury, I thought he played admirably despite many fans labeling him as a major defensive liability.  But after watching his performance against Miami, I will be ecstatic to see rookie Jerraud Powers return from injury.

Jerraud Powers played very well in his first game as a pro, and he will only improve.  If the team decides to keep Marlin Jackson in the slot, Powers is not nearly the liability on the outside that Jennings is.  His return will significantly bolster the Colts defense on third downs.

 

3. Run the Ball

In the Monday night matchup against the Dolphins, the Colts had one three-and-out that started with a four yard rush, and another in which the offense did not attempt a running play.  Yet they averaged nearly SIX YARDS A RUN.

Every time the Colts had a decent run on first down, they always dialed up a passing play on second down, and most of the time it was from the shotgun formation. If you’ve gained three or four yards on first down, why not run the ball occasionally on second down?

Or, if you’re going to put the ball in the air, at least pass from a running formation to keep the opposing defense guessing.

Football is a game of bilateral strategy; defenses must choose their emphasis on every play.  If the Colts aren’t going to attempt a balanced offense, teams are going to be able to predict the offense based on their tendencies.

With that sort of advantage, defenses will cause drives to stall anytime execution isn’t immaculate.  Even Peyton Manning isn’t perfect.

 

4. Call Play-Action on 2nd-and-10

Another predictable tendency of the Colts offense is to call a running play on second down nearly every time they attempt and fail to complete a pass on first down and are left with 2nd-and-10.  The only exception to this is hurry up situations.

Since it is so predictable, this inevitably leads to a minimal gain and 3rd-and-long.  But also, since this is so predictable, it is a perfect set-up for a play-action pass.  Even play action for a short or intermediate crossing route would keep the chains moving and mix up the play calling enough to keep defenses guessing.

 

5. Run the Ball

As I mentioned above, the Colts defense was on the field far too long against Miami.  When the opposing team possesses the ball for over 45 minutes, the defense is going to look bad no matter how good they are.  Defenses give up yards when they get exhausted.

Running the ball is the only way to control time of possession.  Obviously, the passing offense is generally very good with “laser-rocket-arm” taking the snaps, but better balance would keep opposing defenses on the field longer and allow the Colts’ defense to rest.

However, I would like to point out that the Colts’ most effective passing offense is when they are in hurry up situations.  The team runs the no-huddle nearly all the time, but most of the no-huddle offense involves utilizing the entire play clock on every down. 

If the team has a game plan that involves running the ball less than 15 times, however absurd that concept is, perhaps they should run the hurry-up offense more often.  The hurry-up utilizes the shotgun formation on every down, which gives Manning an advantageous extra split-second to read coverages.

if the Colts don’t even want to try to control the ball, they might as well give Peyton every advantage possible.

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Arizona Cardinals: Give Beanie Wells the Rock

The Arizona Cardinals haven’t been known to be a running team as of late.

The last time they had a 1,000-yard runner was in 2007 with Edgerrin James. That season, the Cardinals were a mediocre 8-8 team.

Last season, they were brought to the playoffs on Kurt Warner’s 4,583 passing yards. They still barely got into the playoffs with nine wins, and it wasn’t until they found out how to establish the run that they made it to the Super Bowl.

This season, the Cardinals began with a loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Warner went 26 of 44 for 288 yards.

The next game, he rebounded with a phenomenal game in which he was 24 of 26 for 246 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The big stat from the first game is the Cardinals only had 17 rushing attempts, two of which were by quarterbacks. In turn, they only had 40 rushing yards for the whole game.

Against the Jaguars, the Cardinals had 28 rushing attempts, four of them by Matt Leinart and Warner. Tim Hightower had a game-high 72 yards, and the running game made this win happen.

Warner played great, but it always helps your play fakes if you can establish some sort of running game.

Despite Hightower’s 72 yards, Beanie Wells did a great job when he kept the ball in his hands.

In his first four rushes, Wells gained 40 yards, but went on a downhill slope after that, only getting three more carries and coughing up two fumbles.

There is definitely a lot of potential for Wells to be a great back in the NFL. Of course, he needs to keep his hands on the ball and not give it up like he did against the Jaguars.

The Cardinals have been a passing team, but when you have a weapon like Wells, you can’t simply put him in there for blocking and play fakes.

Wells wasn’t drafted for being a great receiver out of the backfield or a great pass protector. He was drafted because, with the ball in his hands, he is one of the deadliest weapons you can have on the field.

He’s got the power of a fullback and has speed to bypass defenders. He has a killer stiff arm, and is all around hard to tackle.

Using him will only help the passing game, because if you don’t put more men in the box to stop him, he will burn you.

When teams do put extra men in the box to stop Wells, Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald will be open in single coverage.

Once this team finally figures it out by putting Hightower in for more of the passing downs and Wells in for more of the running packages, there will be a lot of problems for opponents.

In the Big Ten, Wells was used to carrying the load for his team and that may have caused more injuries for him. In this type of offense, they don’t need the run…they have a great quarterback.

In a big win like they had against Jacksonville on Sunday, the Cardinals need to work Wells into the game a lot more, especially in the fourth quarter. When the defense is getting tired, this is the guy you want to get the ball to.

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Peyton Manning’s Heroics Save Colts Yet Again

There are a lot of topics that could be discussed the day after Indianapolis’ thrilling 27-23 win over the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

I could talk about the Colts’ defense or lack there of.

I could talk about Miami’s fifty-seven minutes of domination, only to end the game with a series of perplexing decisions.

I could talk about how surreal it was to see Tiger Woods slap Manning on the back after the opening touchdown throw.

But, all I really want to talk about is Peyton Manning.

Last night was a career milestone for Manning. He tied Johnny Unitas for fifth all-time in career TD’s. He also passed Johnny U. in franchise lore, having the most wins in Colt history with his 119th victory (Unitas had 118 victories with the Colts and one with the Chargers).

What’s impressive is how Manning earned that record. His stat line is pretty good at first glance, 303 yards on only 23 pass attempts and two touchdowns.

However, dig deeper and you get a sense of how great those numbers really are. Manning earned them while spending less than fifteen minutes on the field.

The Colts were manhandled in time of possession. The Dolphins owned a three-to-one advantage in that category. The Colts’ defense just simply couldn’t get off the field. The Dolphins controlled the clock with an offense that ran for over 200 yards.

Bill Polian has been quoted in the past as saying that time of possession is one of the most overrated stats in football. It certainly was last night. With less than fifteen minutes of possession, the Colts generated 27 points. The accomplishment was how in sync they were despite spending most of the game as spectators.

For anyone who has ever played sports before, you know there’s a certain element of rhythm in athletics. The more you play, the more you find your groove. It’s very difficult to sit cold and come out and perform.

But that’s exactly what Peyton Manning did. Time and time again, the Dolphins churned clock and often produced a score.

Now, check the box score. From the second quarter on, every time the Dolphins scored, the Colts answered back. Back-and-forth. The Dolphins would seemingly drive down the field at will, the defense looked spent, and the Colts’ chances in the game looked bleak. Yet, Manning was always there with an answer.

I’m sure this will be one of a million Manning articles written today. A thrilling Monday Night Football win coupled with breaking the franchise record of an iconic quarterback will give the media lots to talk about.

And it’s with good reason. Manning proved last night why is name gets mentioned with the greats of all time.

For many teams, there’s a certain golden age you can look at and say “those teams were special.” The 49ers have the ’80s and early ’90s with Montana and Young. The Packers have the great teams of the ’60s. The Browns have there powerful teams of the ’50s.

For the Colts, they’ve always had the Unitas era and the team that won “The Greatest Game Ever” in 1958. Unitas, Raymond Berry, Art Donovan, etc. The roll call from those teams is an impressive who’s who of football history.

But make no mistake about it, this is the Colts’ second golden age.

Seven straight playoff appearances. Six years of 12+ wins. A Super Bowl victory.

The list of Colts’ players during this run does not come close to the Colts’ teams of Unitas. Sure, Marvin Harrison is Hall of Fame bound. Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, and Dwight Freeney are great players. But this golden age of Colts football is here because they have No. 18 behind center.

By all accounts, Miami should have won last nights game. They ran the ball down the Colts’ throats. They made the Colts all but abandon the running game. Manning got to throw only 23 passes.

Yet, Manning made the most of his meager opportunities. Miami played an amazing game, but at the end, they didn’t have anyone that was going to will their team to win.

Manning did.

The last drive was classic Manning. Manning hit three of his four passes, all for 15 yards or more. The last play, Manning quickly read the all-out blitz and hit Garcon, who made some great moves in route to a score. Manning was in command in that final drive.

It’s something a lot of fans have come to expect from Manning, maybe even take for granted. But it’s definitely something we need to savor.

Manning won’t be around forever, but while he’s here, he’s sure given the Colts one helluva ride.

 

 

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