Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Steals: Glen Coffee

For those of you who followed PFI last week and our Week Three Fantasy Football Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals, you capitalized on a touchdown from Johnny Knox, an explosive game from Tashard Choice, and one of Jason Campbell’s biggest fantasy outputs of his career.

My fantasy owners who wrote in were guided in starting Kevin Kolb and up-to-then bust Santana Moss. Both had great fantasy weeks.

But enough tooting my own horn, onto this week’s closet fantasy studs, starting with the guy who is taking the place of Frank Gore in San Francisco.

 

1. Glen Coffee – RB – S.F. 49ers.

With the loss of Frank Gore for three weeks, Glen Coffee will reap the benefits of Gore’s absence iby eating up his carries.  One of Gore’s weeks out will be absorbed by the 49ers’ bye week, but the other two are favorable matchups for Coffee.

First Coffee will face the St. Louis Rams, followed by the Atlanta Falcons.   Both are prone to giving up yards on the ground in bundles.   The 49ers’ offensive scheme will not change with Gore out, so if Glen Coffee is there and you need a running back, he’s the man.

For the rest of ProFootballinsight’s Week 4 NFL Football Sleepers and Waiver Wire Steals, click this link.

As always, ask and you shall receive: post your questions to this article and I will respond.  Submit your Week Five questions via email by Tuesday afternoon and have your questions answered as ProFootballinsight goes “Head to Head” with MidwestSportsFans in their Fantasy Podcast release beginning next week.

Kurt Fraschetti / ProFootballinsight
MidwestSportsFans.com Senior Fantasy Football Writer
Kurt@ProFootballinsight.net

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Steelers-Chargers: A Look Inside the Game

At 1-2, the margin for error is now razor thin for the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

Back home, where they usually dominate, the Steelers face what is almost a must-win game against the San Diego Chargers.

Limas Sweed is all but benched.  Frank Summers, ineffective from the fullback position, is on injured reserve with a balky back. Shaun McDonald and Carey Davis are in for the Steelers.

Here’s a look inside the Steelers’ Week Four matchup with the Chargers:

Five Questions To Answer

1. Can the running game continue to build on its recent success?

2. Can the Steelers’ secondary slow down Philip Rivers?

3. Is Shaun McDonald an upgrade over Limas Sweed?

4. Can the defense, particularly the linebackers, create pressure?

5. Can the offense finish more drives?

 

Four Fantasy Tips

1. If you haven’t already, pick up Mike Wallace.

Wallace has proven to be one of Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite targets, racking up his first 100+ yard receiving performance against the Bengals. Ben has showed increased confidence in him, particularly in key situations. He is fast developing into a breakout rookie.

2. Be careful with playing Philip Rivers.

Rivers is a great quarterback. He isn’t even a bad fantasy option. But anyone who watched his playoff performance against the Steelers, not to mention his regular season showings, would tell you that he does not play well against Pittsburgh. The Steelers defense may be weak, but they will be able to key on Rivers and the passing game this week.

3. Don’t Start Darren Sproles (or LaDainian Tomlinson).

Sproles and Tomlinson are also great players, but have been ineffective so far this season.  Sproles gained only 41 yards against the Dolphins and isn’t likely to do better against the Steelers.  His value would primarily be as a returner, but that is another area where the Steelers are likely to keep him hemmed in.

4. Sleeper: Steelers Defense.

The Steelers defense has yet to play a full game, but this is probably a better matchup for them than Cincinnati. Right now, the Chargers offense is one dimensional, so the Steelers will be able to play their usual staunch run defense and key on quarterback Philip Rivers. The defense is also due for a big game and always play tough against San Diego.

 

Three Key Matchups

1. Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall/Mewelde Moore vs. Chargers Rush Defense

Willie Parker has turf toe, which could sideline him Sunday night. Rashard Mendenhall didn’t play last week after a poor week of practice and preparation. If Parker can’t go, Mendenhall best be ready. Mewelde Moore will likely be mixed in more often either way.

This group of running backs has talent, but so far they haven’t put up too many good results. Sunday is their chance to be more effective. Miami’s running game was quite effective last week against the Chargers, racking up 149 yards and one touchdown.

With the offensive line playing much better, the running backs must now shoulder the blame if the Steelers cannot move the football on the ground.

2. Steelers Pass Defense vs. Philip Rivers

This is, by far, the most important matchup of the game. Rivers is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback. The Steelers are usually one of the league’s best defenses. Something will give on Sunday.

Rivers does not throw for a lot of touchdowns, but he does get a ton of passing yardage to set up the weak running game. The Steelers have to limit his opportunities and shut down Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson.

Expect to see more blitzes against San Diego after Miami did a good job of creating pressure last week. With Lawrence Timmons healthy, the Steelers will likely try to use him with James Harrison so that the Chargers cannot continually double team one linebacker.

3. Lamarr Woodley vs. the Chargers’ Offensive Line

Woodley is about as close to ineffective as you can get after three weeks. He seems to be having a second season slump as a starter, struggling to make any plays in the passing game and unable to get pressure or get off blocks.

While Woodley’s starting job is likely safe in the long term, he must start making plays if the defense hopes to be anything like last year’s unit.

Woodley should have some space to operate with James Harrison drawing a double team on every play and Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior taking up the middle of the field.

How Woodley plays could be a determining factor in the final score. No kidding.

 

Two Players in the Spotlight

Pittsburgh Steelers: Mike Wallace

Wallace had his breakout game against the Bengals. Now everyone knows him and fantasy players are scrambling to pick him up before this weekend’s action.

For Wallace, Limas Sweed’s epic failures are an opportunity to step up into an increased role on offense. Ben Roethlisberger already targets Wallace in crucial situations and, so far, Wallace has been brilliant.

Wallace has great deep speed, something the Steelers have generally lacked for several years. He also has sure hands and excellent route running skills. He seems to be one of the draft’s steals, but its a young season and Wallace still has a lot of proving to do.

San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers

Rivers surely will remember what happened the last time he played at Heinz Field. He was ineffective and battered by a tough Steelers defense.

Now, Rivers has a nice stable of receivers and will be playing a Steelers defense seemingly crippled by the loss of Troy Polamalu and several nicks to other stars. He has no excuse for not performing well after a stellar opening to the season.

Rivers does not do well with pressure, so he will have to prove that he can handle the Steelers pass rush if it finds a way to penetrate consistently. He will also have to overcome the team’s lack of a consistent, effective rushing attack.

 

One Bold Prediction

Steelers 20, Chargers 16

Ben Roethlisberger and company turn in a couple of early touchdowns and then attack the Chargers with a strong rushing performance by Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore (assuming Parker is out). The Steelers play their best and most complete defensive game, complete with a now-rare Lamarr Woodley sack.

The Chargers put together a late rally but fall short on a late turnover/sack by Philip Rivers.

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NFL Fantasy Football Week Four Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins

We have now had three weeks of the 2009 fantasy football season and everyone should have a decent idea of what kind of team they have.

I’m in six leagues and am at least 2-1 in five of them, so I’m feeling pretty good.

But the equations change a little bit this week as the bye week rotations begin.

This week, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, and Atlanta are all on byes. This means that teams with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, Desean Jackson, and Tony Gonzalez, among many others, have to find productive fill-ins to continue competing in week four.

And that’s what we’re going to look at this morning.

So far, my start em, sit em picks have worked out a lot better than my sleeper picks on a weekly basis (Byron Leftwich last week, ’nuff said).

In reality, though, weeks one through three are really like the preseason when it comes to waiver wire trolling in the 50 percent-or-less category.

Most teams, if they drafted at least semi-competently, should not have been digging too far down the wire to plug any holes yet.

It’s a different ballgame now, with each team needing to find bye week replacements. This morning, I will attempt to identify players at each primary fantasy position (no kickers…not now, not ever) who have favorable match-ups in week four and could do some damage.

Here we go!

 

Week Four Sleepers & Bye Week Fill-Ins: Quarterback

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos (vs. Dallas, 45 percent owned)

Where’s the love for Kyle Orton? He has thrown three TD passes in three games this season and has yet to throw a pick.

The Cowboys come into town this weekend and are suspect against the pass (don’t let a strong performance against a fading Jake Delhomme fool you). With Brandon Marshall getting his act together again, Orton’s numbers should be solid this week.

 

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (at New Orleans, 43 percent owned)

Sanchez appears to be going down the road of rookie QB respectability traveled last year by Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. He has four TDs and only two INTs through three games.

This week, the Jets travel to New Orleans to face a high octane offense and a defense that gives up a lot of passing yards. The Jets’ D will slow down New Orleans, but won’t totally stop them, meaning Sanchez will need to lead his team to more points than usual to win.

Opportunities should be there for Sanchez to hit the 250-275 yard mark and potentially a couple touchdowns.

 

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins (vs. Tampa Bay, 34 percent owned)

Campbell had a very nice game last week against Detroit, which got lost in all the hubbub over the Lions breaking their losing streak.

He will have more opportunities to hit Santana Moss this week with Tampa Bay and their pathetic pass defense coming to town. Don’t be afraid to start Campbell this week. He could have very good numbers again.

 

Week Four Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Running Back

Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (vs. Buffalo, 42 percent)

Ricky has had a pretty strong start to the season in 2009, amassing 163 yards with a 4.8 yard per carry average and a TD through three games. He’s also caught seven passes and scored a TD on one of them.

Chad Pennington is now out, meaning the Dolphins are relying on unproven Chad Henne. Buffalo is 18th against the run this year and is allowing 4.4 yards per carry while also yielding four rushing touchdowns.

I smell a solid day at home for the Dolphins, who will be in desperation mode trying to salvage their season.

 

Glen Coffee, San Francisco 49ers (vs. St. Louis, 32 percent)

How in the hell is this guy only owned in 32 percent of leagues? Coffee had a great preseason and has a great matchup this week against St. Louis.

Regardless of who is in the backfield, Mike Singletary is committed to pounding the rock, meaning Coffee should be among the league leaders in touches this week.

Yes, he struggled last week, but that was against one of the league’s best run defenses. Don’t be fooled, he’s in store for a good day Sunday.

 

Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys (at Denver, 24 percent)

Here’s another guy whose percent owned number I don’t really understand. Not only is Tashard Choice a vastly underrated all-around running back, but when you watch this video you will see that he is also a terrific team-first leader and the kind of guy you want to root for.

Most importantly, for our purposes here this morning and on Sunday, Choice should continue to get touches with Felix Jones out this week and Marion Barber probably not at 100 percent. Denver is very good against the pass, but a little suspect against the run. The Cowboys will lean on the run game and Choice will be a major part of it.

Others to consider: Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants (at Kansas City, 47 percent); Chester Taylor, Vikings (vs. Green Bay, 33 percent—only in PPR leagues); Jerome Harrison, Browns (vs. Cincinnati, six percent).

 

Week Four Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Wide Receiver

Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville, 48 percent)

Gage has been up and down this season, but has a terrific matchup on Sunday. The Jags are allowing a league-worst 281.7 passing yards per game and have given up six scores through the air.

Granted, they’ve played Houston and Arizona, so those numbers are a bit skewed, but the Titans will have opportunities to make plays in the passing game. Gage caught six touchdowns last year and could be in line for his second of the year this Sunday.

 

Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee, 40 percent)

Two straight weeks of solid production for Mike Sims-Walker make him a prime sleeper pick against a defense that is giving up a lot through the air. The Titans are allowing 274.7 passing yards per game and have given up seven passing TDs.

Walker has at least six catches and 80 yards in each of the last two weeks, plus he’s caught a TD. He is quickly becoming David Garrard’s most consistent target and should be a solid player you can count on moving forward, and not just this week.

 

Earl Bennett, Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit, 27 percent)

Earl Bennett is tied for the Bears’ team lead in receptions with 13. He and Jay Cutler go all the way back to Vanderbilt and their rapport is obvious.

Last week, Bennett caught four passes and averaged 20 yards per reception. He has yet to find the end zone, but should have a great chance to do so this weekend against a terrible Lions’ secondary. Detroit has already yielded 10 passing touchdowns this season.

Others to consider: Pierre Garcon, Colts (vs. Seattle, 40 percent); Nate Washington, Titans (at Jacksonville, 26 percent); Davone Bess, Dolphins (vs. Buffalo, eight percent—PPR league especially); Kelley Washington, Ravens (at New England, five percent); Mike Wallace, Steelers (vs. San Diego, three percent)

 

Week Four Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Tight End

Finally, America has wised up and Vernon Davis is now owned in more than 50 percent of leagues. All it took was one two-TD game…I guess that makes sense. However, there are now very few options in the under 50 percent category at TE.

 

Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins (vs Buffalo, 29 percent)

I know, I know, the guy’s been terrible and I may regret recommending him, but that said, there are reasons to like Fasano.

With a new, inexperienced QB playing, I would assume Fasano will get some targets. He’s only caught three balls all year, but he’s had opportunities to make plays. At some point, I think he starts to make those plays.

Fasano caught seven TDs last year, and I would not be surprised to see his first one of 2009 come Sunday at home against the Bills.

Other than Fasano, who I do believe still has some upside, all of the other under 50 percent tight ends are pretty much the same.

 

Week Four Sleepers and Bye Week Fill-Ins: Defense / Special Teams

Washington Redskins D/ST (vs. Tampa Bay, 29 percent)

The Redskins have been disappointing this season and are without Albert Haynesworth this week, but they face a punch-less Tampa Bay offense that is turning the reins over to unproven youngster Josh Johnson.

DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot have to be licking their chops. Tampa Bay will most likely try to control this game on the ground, but I don’t think they are capable of scoring many points.

 

San Francisco 49ers D/ST (vs. St. Louis, 29 percent)

The 49ers have a much improved defense and face a Rams team that has Kyle Boller starting at QB and no difference makers on the outside.

If the 49ers can contain Steven Jackson, they can contain the Rams on offense.

San Francisco’s conservative style on offense will also keep this game from getting into anything resembling a shootout.

This should be a low-scoring, solid afternoon for the 49ers.

 

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (at Cleveland, 21 percent)

I talked about the Bengals’ D in this week’s start em, sit em, but they merit another mention here because they are only owned in 21 percent of leagues.

Folks, if you haven’t watched Cleveland on offense this year, there is almost no way to describe how bad they’ve been.

If Brady Quinn plays QB, the Browns won’t be able to score. If Derek Anderson plays QB, the Browns will score some points, but Cincinnati will rack up the sacks and INTs.

Either way, you want Cincy’s D, which has been very productive in its own right this season, already notching 10 sacks and a defensive touchdown.

 

Follow the link to my Week Four start em, sit em column for more fantasy football week four info.

As always, use the comment section below to pose your questions, which I will answer as quickly as I’m able, and then get signed up at Explodium to join the MSF community. We are still developing the details, but it will be pretty cool and there are plenty of options for you to take advantage of with your own profile.

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Marshawn Lynch or Fred Jackson: Decision Time in Buffalo

Changes are coming to Buffalo, and I am not just talking about the weather.

While the first cold blast of the fall moves into western New York, a familiar face moves back onto the sideline this weekend for the Bills.

Marshawn Lynch, the Bills first-round draft pick in 2007, comes off a three-game suspension to rejoin the Buffalo backfield. And in the last three weeks, it has gotten pretty crowded—not by shear numbers like in New Orleans, but by the performance of one Fred Jackson in Lynch’s stead.

Jackson has played like an RB1 for fantasy owners in points-per-reception leagues and a solid RB2 or flex option in standard leagues. He has been patient as a runner and versatile as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.

He also has generated nearly half of Buffalo’s offense through the first three weeks of the season. His numbers, below.

 

Fred Jackson through three weeks

@ Patriots: 15 carries, 57 yards; five receptions, 83 yards, one touchdown

v. Buccaneers: 28 carries, 163 yards; six receptions, 25 yards

v. Saints: 18 carries, 71 yards; four receptions, 26 yards

 

Taking a deeper look at the numbers, Jackson is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the ground and 8.9 yards per catch. He lost one fumble against Tampa Bay. And his one touchdown came through the air.

Those are some lofty numbers for a player considered No. 2 on the depth chart when Lynch is active. Lynch certainly has his work cut out for him starting this weekend.

That Jackson could not punch in a rushing touchdown during the first three weeks of the season opens the door for Lynch’s immediate role upon his return. Lynch has scored 15 rushing touchdowns over the course of his two-year career and is generally considered a better goal line running back than Jackson.

Jackson’s versatility keeps him in play. So, too, does the fact that he has performed well in Lynch’s stead through the first three weeks of the season.

Most experts expect Lynch to gradually work his way back into the feature role with Jackson playing more of a supporting role, a la Brandon Jacobs and Derrick Ward last year. That still leaves plenty of fantasy relevancy for Jackson and Lynch alike.

But for fantasy owners, it is just another frustrating running-back-by-committee.

 

Thank you for reading the latest post from The Hazean. Please visit our website for more great fantasy content!

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San Francisco Preps for Frank Gore Injury Aftershocks, Shaun Hill Can’t Rattle

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Project 99: No. 92 “Minister” Dominated Football Offenses

Reggie White, known as the Minister of Defense, is my choice for the Project 99’s pick for No. 92.

White played for the University of Tennessee, the Memphis Showboats of the old USFL, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers, and the Carolina Panthers.

White played for the Eagles from 1985 to 1992 and in 17 seasons collected 198 sacks. He died Dec. 26, 2004 and two years later was enshrined in the National Football League Hall of Fame.

White stood tall at 6’5″ and near 300 pounds, but was known for his quickness and agility. He gave opposing linemen fits with his hump, swim and rip moves.

In 1985, 1986, 1987, the Minister of Defense posted 13, 18, and 21 sacks respectively.

He was virtually unblockable in 1987. He collected  21 sacks, third-best in one season, even though a strike limited the season to 12 games.

From 1985 to 1992 he remained a mainstay of the Eagles’ defense and in 1991 the team’s defense ranked first in the NFL.

The thing I remember about 1991 was the Eagles front four, which included White, Jerome Brown, Clyde Simmons, and Mike Pitts.

One memorable game was Sept. 15, 1991. The Eagles defensive line of White, Simmons, Pitts, Brown, and Mike Golic sacked Troy Aikman 11 times in a 24-0 shutout. The Eagles defense also forced three interceptions.

The Eagles “Gang Green,” like many great groups, never reached the Super Bowl and soon would be history.

Brown died the following winter in a car accident and White was gone to free agency in 1993.

White collected 13 sacks in his first year with the Packers, where he played until 1998. In 1997, White helped the Packers to a 35-21 victory over New England in Super Bowl XXXI. White collected three sacks in the game.

He sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times in his final year with the Packers 1998. He “retired” and did not play in 1999, before he came back and finished his career in Carolina in 2000 with 5.5 sacks.

White was a two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 13-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year and a 12-time All-Pro selection.

White was selected to the NFL 75th anniversary All-Time Team, the NFL 1990s All-Decade Team, and the 1980 NFL All-Decade Team.

During his career, he became famous not only for his outstanding play, but also for his Christian ministry as an ordained Evangelical minister. He was commonly known as the Minister of Defense.

Upon his death, there were many who fondly remembered the man of two seasons: football and God.

“He was just a wonderful player, first of all, as a player,” said Seattle coach Mike Holmgren, who coached White at Green Bay. “Then as a person, he was just the best. He was one of the leaders, along with Brett Favre, of our football team in Green Bay. I’m a better person for having been around Reggie White.”

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Daily Haze: Chad Henne, Josh Johnson, and Dynasty Owners

With yesterday’s news that Chad Pennington would be shut down for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and Byron Leftwich would be benched in favor of Josh Johnson, dynasty league owners will get their first looks at a couple of young quarterback prospects.

Chad Henne will start for Miami in place of the injured Pennington. He was being groomed as early as last preseason to be the heir apparent to Pennington and his time has come a little sooner than the Dolphins had hoped.

However, after falling into an 0-3 hole to start the season, now might be the best time to hand Henne the ball after all.

Meanwhile, Johnson takes over for the 0-3 Buccaneers a day after Tampa gave Leftwich a vote of confidence as the starting quarterback. I guess that vote of confidence really does not mean anything when your offense cannot get a first down until the third quarter of your most recent game.

Johnson is intriguing in that he can run. The question is if he can throw the ball with any efficiency. The Bucs drafted Josh Freeman to be the quarterback of the future, and that future could come soon if Johnson struggles.

Here are today’s great reads:

• The 2009 bye week season begins this week with the Cardinals, Falcons, Panthers and Eagles. Prepare yourselves accordingly. [The Hazean]
• If your fantasy team has fallen to 0-3 on the season, it may be OK to push the panic button. But there still are ways to get your 0-3 team into the fantasy playoffs. [The Huddle]
• Who would have thought that now would be a great time to trade DeAngelo Williams, your (likely) first-round draft pick this year? [Sports Data Hub]
• The good ole’ buy or sell game focusing on the Baltimore running backs. If you have either of those guys, good luck trying to get fair value. [Top Fantasy Football]
• JaMarcus Russell, Jake Delhomme or Brady Quinn—which is the worst quarterback in the NFL? [The Fifth Down]
• And speaking of ranking the quarterbacks, the best quarterback in the NFL currently comes down to two of the usual suspects. [Shutdown Corner]
• Vernon Davis is a hot add off the waiver wire this week, but some think you should sell high on Davis after a two-touchdown performance. Not a bad idea if you can find someone willing to trade for him. [FFToolBox]

Got a pressing fantasy football question and need an answer now? Or just want to chat about all the recent developments in the sports’ world? Head over to The Hazean’s fantasy football forums for all that and more. Also remember to check out The Hazean’s fantasy rankings and mock draft database.

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Thank you for reading the latest post from The Hazean. Please visit our website for more great fantasy content!

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A Classic Tale: Josh McDaniels Defeats Bill Belichick

Once upon a time, in a land far, far away, Mike Ditka did it to Tom Landry, Steve Young did it to Joe Montana and Dana Holgerson did it to Mike Leach.

This is the story of a young pupil, Josh McDaniels, dismantling a seasoned master, Bill Belichick.  A storyline straight from Star Wars, taking place on our planet, in the stadium closest to the stars above—Invesco Field at Mile High.   

 

Josh McDaniels will face Bill Belichick on Oct. 11, 2009, and the game will be a turning point in both coaches’ careers – Belichick will begin his course towards the chop-shop; McDaniels for a nonstop swap to the top.

 

Denver coming off a solid win at home against Dallas, will finally get the recognition they deserve after beating a legitimate team without the help of God himself.  New England, looking solid on both sides of the ball, defeats Baltimore at razor stadium, and will rise to the top of most week four power ranking lists. (These hypotheticals need not be argued because the real story lies in the week five game.)

 

This game will be won by the Broncos to the tune of 28-10.  You have every right to read this in disbelief and have doubts.  But before you write the Broncos off, at least give them a chance to be great.  The media is labeling the Broncos as the worst 2-0 team ever and the worst 3-0 team ever…At this rate, perhaps they will be the worst 5-0 team ever.

 

The Broncos’ defense has been the surprise of the season thus far in the NFL – I would wager not a single fantasy owner picked the Broncos for their defense this year.

 

Mike Nolan has implemented the 3-4 defensive scheme seamlessly, and Broncos have bought into it completely, allowing only 215 total yards per game (first in NFL).  They have also only given up a mere 16 points in their first three games (tied for second all-time).

 

An explosive Elvis Dumervil with a six pack of sacks on the year will need to get to Tom Brady early to disrupt his poise.  Early is the key word here as all six of Dumervils’ sacks have come in the second half of games.  A first quarter sack is a must.  Brady has shown considerable weakness under pressure this year, and the Broncos will need to take advantage of this.  

 

Future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey will need to shadow Randy Moss all game letting the other defensive backs roam free.  Last year, Bailey held Moss to one catch for the entire first half before leaving the game with a groin injury.  Like he said before the last Patriot’s game, “I’m like the FAA, all flights closed to my side.”

 

Athletic linebackers D.J. Williams and Mario Haggan need to make Wes Welker and Ben Watson non-factors over the middle.  They will also have to keep their eyes peeled for the screen and delayed draw play, both of which could go for big yards if the they aren’t discipline about assignments.

 

Brian Dawkins must fly to the ball and hit the receivers at the point of the catch—The Patriots have shown a case of the dropsies lately, which is bad news for them considering Brian Dawkins is the second all-time leader in forced fumbles.

 

Possibly the most underrated member of this defense will be McDaniels.  No one knows the offensive schemes and concepts of the Patriots better than him, save Tom Brady himself.  This could cause problems for Belichick as so many of his short passes rely on an element of surprise.

 

The Bronco’s offense doesn’t look as explosive compared to last year’s with the loss of Jay Cutler and Mike Shanahan, but with the way the defense is playing, they don’t need to be as explosive.  That being said, red-zone scoring is crucial against the Patriots.  Kyle Orton cannot drive the ball 60 yards only to settle for a Matt Prater field goal.  

 

Running the ball effectively with rookie Knowshon Moreno (avg. four yards per carry) and Correll Buckhalter (avg. over seven yards per carry) is key. Denver is among the best in the league at rushing the ball (fourth in NFL) and they will need to pound it against a good Patriot’s defensive line.  The running backs will have the help of a superb offensive line anchored by left tackle Ryan Clady who has yet to give up a sack in his young career.

 

Avoid turnovers (only one on the season) and let Kyle Orton (0 INT) take what the defense gives him.  Make good use of the tight ends Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler biding time until Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall get open deep.  

 

Only a matter of time remains before Orton gets on the same page as his skillful receiving corps, and when this happens look for the Bronco’s offense to get exponentially better.  

 

One must also remember that Orton has been playing with a glove on his throwing hand since the Bears preseason game due to a finger injury.  His accuracy will only get better when the glove is no longer needed.

 

If the Bronco’s can score on the ground, not settle for field goals in the red zone, and keep third downs manageable, Tom Bradys’ time on the field will be minimal.  The defense will also remain fresh which is a scary thought for New England.

 

The Patriots have not won an October game in Denver since Oct. 4, 1964 and don’t expect that to change this year. With a league-leading defense, consistent offensive play, home field advantage, and an extensive knowledge of the Patriots, à la Josh McDaniels, look for Bill Belichick to fall to his pupil.  

 

The week following the gut-wrenching loss to the Broncos, the Patriots will lose to the Titans and this will mark the beginning of the end for Bill Belichick and his dynasty.  

 

History is full of parallels which do not always accurately predict the future, but they are great indicators.  Teams, especially the good ones, go through cycles of extreme success and extreme let-down.  

 

Past decades have for the most part been ruled by one team per decade; Green Bay in the ’60s, Pittsburgh in the ’70s, San Francisco in the ’80s, Dallas in the ’90s, and yes, New England in our current decade.   

 

Unfortunately for New England, this decade is coming to a close and it is time for them to pack up.  A new decade is upon us, and though it may be a slow decline to mediocrity, it is a sure one for the Patriots.

 

A new man is in Denver, Josh McDaniels, and he will lead the team to the promised land sooner, then later too. He has proved himself thus far, and it is only a matter of time before the playoffs become a reality once again for Broncos fans.

 

Denver 28

Patriots 10

 

All is good in Bronco Country for the time being, so watch your football, drink your beer and live happily ever after.

 

 

THE END

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Black & Gold Xs & Os: Defensive Gameplan for the Jets

When the New York Jets enter the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday afternoon (3:15 on CBS), it will likely be the craziest atmosphere Mark Sanchez has ever played a football game in.

Yet to be honest I don’t see this effecting him too much. He did play Southern California in front of 90,000+ fans on a regular basis, so he’s at least used to rowdy crowds, just they are normally on his side.

The bigger issue that he will face though is a Saints defense that is much improved over a season ago, and will likely give him as many different looks as he’s seen in his early career.

Even the number of looks I don’t expect to be the issue Sanchez faces though. If the Saints are going to knock off the 3-0 Jets, they are going to have to execute defensively. Sanchez is as poised a young QB as could ever be found. He is also very football smart, and of course extremely talented.

In order to win this football game the Saints are going to have to play their best football of the season on the defensive side of the ball. That’s in large part due to Mark Sanchez being the best quarterback they’ve faced to this point in the season.

It’s also due to a productive running game, and a plethora of skill players all who bring something different to the table, and present possible matchup problems for the Saints defense. Here’s a closer look at that group of players.

 

Jets Personnel

 

RB Thomas Jones

Jones is a veteran who would seemingly have lost a step at this point in his career. But through three games, he looks just as fresh and lively as he’s been in the past. He’s never been the quickest or fastest back in the league, but he does hit the hole quickly and is explosive enough to get to the second level of the defense and run right through it.

Jones is a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and also does a wonderful job blocking in the passing game for his rookie QB.

 

RB Leon Washington

Washington is the Jets’ super-utility guy (think Reggie Bush). He returns kicks and punts, plus he takes some snaps in the “Wildcat”. Not to mention that he gets about 10 carries a game from under center, and the Jets love to throw him the ball on screen passes and run him on draws to get him out in space. Overall, he is the Jets’ most explosive offensive player.

 

WR Jerricho Cotchery

Cotchery has turned into one of the most reliable receivers in the league and has become a true No.1 target for Sanchez to look to in key situations. He runs good routes and has good hands in order to finish his routes by catching the ball.

He is a difficult guy to tackle with the ball in his hands, and is very physical when going up in traffic to make a catch. He also does a pretty good job blocking in the running game.

 

TE Dustin Keller

Keller is a large Wide Receiver for all intents and purposes. The Jets do play him on the line and use him to block, but his real value is getting out into a pattern and creating mismatches against linebackers. He has really good speed for the position and super hands.

He is capable of making plays after he catches the ball. However, his blocking leaves something to be desired.

 

WR Chansi Stuckey

Stuckey came on late last year and has now become the Jets No. 2 receiver. He has good speed, good hands, and is a decent route runner. The Jets like to use him on quick screens and shorter routes to allow him to make things happen with the ball in his hands. That being said, he is a deep threat and must be taken seriously down the field.

 

WR Brad Smith

Smith is the Jets third receiver. The former Missouri Tiger quarterback has become a decent wide receiver and the Jets like to use him on reverses and he is also a viable “Wildcat” possibility. He has good speed and is a legitimate threat to take it the distance anytime he gets the ball.

 

Offensive Line

This is a veteran group that has been together for over an entire season. Because of this they have continuity, which is so crucial to the success of an offensive line.

They are not the most physical line in the history of football, but they do open holes for their backs. They also do a really good job of giving Mark Sanchez enough time to find receivers downfield.

 

Formations

The Jets are the second most complicated team the Saints have faced so far. They do a lot of different things personnel and formation-wise.

They like to go two backs and start in an offset-I, and will often run the football to the side of the tight end in these formations, especially on a counter-lead.

They also like to go to some three-receiver sets and put the tight end on the side of two receivers, giving them a 3×1 look. They will often run the inside zone play away from the three receiver side.

It is not uncommon for them to get into the “Gun” in long-yardage situations. When they do this, they primarily go 2×2 with Keller being split out wide. The other possible formation they show a lot of is the Gun w/ a two back look, although Keller usually is one of the two “backs”.

Some other formations the Saints should be wary of are some Empty packages, where Keller and Washington are split out wide with three receivers. Additionally, the Wildcat with either Washington or Brad Smith are likely to be utilized by the Jets.

 

Play Concepts

I mentioned some of the things the Jets like to do in the running game, by getting into two backs and running the counter-lead and running the inside zone away from the three receiver side.

It is also important to note the Jets LOVE, LOVE, LOVE to use playaction and screens.

On playaction, their goal is generally to hit it deep. They will run three vertical routes with the receivers (sometimes including Keller) and then send the two backs out into the pattern short to the same side with the fullback going to the flat and the running back to the middle of the field.

The Jets will throw a lot of screens especially on third-and-long situations (3rd-and-seven, or more). Many of these will go to the receivers on quick hitches. Some will go to the slot and are essentially the same play. They will also throw the jailbreak screen, which is a middle screen with the wide receiver.

They have some other screens where they’ll get the backs out in space or bring them inside off playaction or other misdirection-type concepts. Keller is also a possible target on these screens.

The draw is also a favorite of theirs in long-yardage situations. They’ll get into passing formations and fake the pass and then hand off, generally designed to go up the middle.

If I didn’t mention it before, the passing game is a vertical passing game. They like to run three receivers vertical, and then come underneath with another receiver. In short-yardage situations they’ll try to bunch you up and run switch patterns to mix up man-to-man coverage. The passing game is very similar to what the Saints like to do offensively.

 

What Gregg Williams Will Dial Up To Stop This Explosive Unit

As I said, the Jets try to give you a lot of different looks offensively. The Saints handled that pretty well when they faced the Eagles.

The running game is a power running game, with a physical back and a good change of pace back. They like to use playaction and throw a lot of screens and run draws. But they also like to go deep.

Keeping all those things in mind, I am going to suggest a more aggressive plan than I have in recent weeks.

In order to stop the inside zone against the 3×1 look I would stay balance and not overreact to this look. I would allow Scott Fujita to match up with Keller most times, at least in this formation.

I would then have my backside DE slant inside which should kill the backside tackles kick-out block. I also have my DT on that side slant into the B gap, to completely kill that gap. Then I have Vilma blitz the A gap and Shanle come outside and keep contain against a possible cutback.

Against the two back look I play the counter-lead. To do this effectively, Roman Harper must come up and be the eighth man in the box. He is the guy who will make most of the tackles on this play.

I would play a lot of man-to-man against these guys. Sure, they have speed and are dangerous, but blitzing is necessary. I would back it up with some cover two looks, especially focusing on helping Fujita when matched up against Keller.

As for the blitzes, I am tempted to zone blitz by dropping Sedrick Ellis, as they’ve done already on a number of occasions. The problem with this is the quickness of all the Jets players. He cannot stay with any of them.

Also, I failed to mention before, but in pass pro against the blitz, they tend to slide their entire line one way, which is very good against an overload blitz. For this reason, I would stay away from the overload. Instead, I would use blitzes where the backers come from both sides, and bring safeties and corners again much like last week.

So I guess the game plan is pretty similar to last weeks. I would be a little surprised to see three down linemen on the field every play. I think Williams will mix up his fronts a little more and try to keep Sanchez off guard. He will disguise blitzes and coverages.

None of this is really very new. Sanchez has seen this stuff before. But where the Saints have a chance to show something new is in the execution. Every coach knows the gamplan is only as good as the players performing it. The Saints certainly have the players. Let’s just hope the plan works.

Thursday I will preview the Jets’ defense and tell you how Sean Payton is likely to attack it. Until then, Geaux Saints!

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Whiplash Bears Fans: Welcome Back to the Bandwagon

Attention all Whiplash Bears Fans: Welcome back to the bandwagon.

You know who you are.

Mere milliseconds after the Week One loss in Green Bay, you initiated your own local chapter of the He-Man Cutler-Haters Club…even though two of Jay Cutler’s four INTs could be attributed to receiver error, and the Bears’ QB was not on the field for either of the crucial Chicago mistakes in that contest.

 

After Green Bay, you and your mindless buddies went directly to Apocalypse-Level Panic Mode with such urgency that you left tire tracks, giving yourself whiplash in the process.

You took to the airwaves and web-waves with a virtual avalanche of texts, blogs, and tweets, not only declaring the trade itself a complete bust, but also writing off the entire ’09 season as a total loss.

After one game.

One game that also happened to be Cutler’s first game in a new system…with a new team…at Lambeau Field.

Your fragile mind may have blocked the memory, but don’t forget that the Bears held a two-point lead with under 90 ticks remaining. Somehow though you convinced yourself that the loss was completely due to Cutler’s incompetence at QB, and decided to fall on your sword immediately.

Fast forward a week, and your expression certainly changed pretty quickly, didn’t it?

Led by the Object-of-Your-Dejection himself, the Bears scored 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points to complete a possible season-saving win against the defending champs via a last second field goal.

 

Fast forward another week to Seattle, where Cutler orchestrates another game-winning fourth-quarter drive (on the loudest field in football mind you), ending in a go-ahead TD pass with less than two minutes to go.

 

So here you are now performing yet another whiplash-worthy, 180-degree flip-flop.

In love with Cutler once again, you’re now in a full sprint, chasing after the very same Bears Bandwagon that you so quickly and prematurely abandoned just 14 short days ago.

Luckily, you are welcome back aboard the bus, Mr. Hysterical. But only under one condition.

You must realize, understand, and accept that a single game, four interceptions or not, does not change anything for a talent like Cutler.

Be reminded that his 4,526 passing yards last season were the 17th best total of all-time.

Yes, all-time.

Now, of course, that doesn’t put Jay Cutler into the Hall of Fame tomorrow, but the man’s not just going to up and lose the ability to play the position well.

So please, repeat the following aloud, until you really believe it:

• I overreacted.
• The sky is not falling.
• It never was.
• The Bears will be fine.
• Jay Cutler will be fine.

So once again Whiplash Fans, welcome back to the Bears Bandwagon. You’ll notice that its much more comfortable in here than out there…

…even with a neck brace.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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