Browns-Broncos Preview, Analysis, and Prediction

All things considered, it was perhaps the most disappointing game of Browns’ 2008 season.

After opening the season 0-3, Cleveland battled back to win three out of its next five games, ultimately sitting at 3-5 as they prepared to take on the Denver Broncos at home on Thursday Night Football. 

Leading 23-10 early in the third quarter, it appeared that the Browns would improve their record to 4-5 and salvage some semblance of an opportunity to make a late season charge at the playoffs.

The Broncos were only able to muster a field goal in the third quarter, meaning the Browns were nursing a 23-13 lead as the fourth quarter began. I was at the Browns Backers that night, as I usually am during Browns games, and for the first time since the opening week of the season, I felt genuine optimism.

We win this game, we’re right back in this thing, was the thought permeating the room.

We know how that turned out.

Over the next 15 minutes of play at Cleveland Browns Stadium, the door was shut on the Browns’ 2008 season for good. You all remember what happened: Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald forgot how to play cornerback, and another chapter in the over-hyped legend of Jay Cutler was written.

Cutler threw 3 TD passes in the fourth quarter, with the 93-yarder to Eddie Royal that started the barrage seeming to break the Browns’ back, even though Cleveland still led 23-20. Cutler would add subsequent TD passes to Daniel Graham and Brandon Marshall on his way to 447 passing yards on the evening.

Despite a solid game from starter Brady Quinn, and the best rushing performance of the year for Cleveland (160 yards, 5.5 yard average), the Browns ended the night a demoralizing 3-6. They would win the next week at Buffalo before proceeding to drop their last six games of the season.

Would 2008 have turned out any differently had the Browns been 5-5 instead of 4-6 after Week 10? Who knows. Probably not. But I know one thing: the sting of last season would have been a little less severe had that fourth quarter embarrassment against the Broncos not occurred.

Sunday afternoon, the Browns will have their opportunity for vengeance.

Here are the particulars:

Cleveland Browns (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

• Browns-Broncos Date: Sunday, Sept. 20
• Browns-Broncos Time: 4:15
• Browns-Broncos TV Network: CBS
• Browns-Broncos Announcers: Bill Macatee and Steve Beuerlein
• Browns-Broncos Point Spread: Broncos -3.5
• Browns-Broncos Over-Under: 37.5
• StubHub: Browns-Broncos tickets as low as $42!

Last week, my preview and analysis of the Vikings-Browns game unfortunately proved prophetic.

The Vikings are quite possibly the worst matchup in the NFL for the Browns, and it showed on Sunday. Cleveland played very well in the first half, but the Browns’ inability to run and stop the run doomed them to a disappointing second half.

This week, my Browns preview will not be nearly as pessimistic. Unlike last week, when I listed out the three reasons the Browns would lose and then provided three things that had to happen for them to even have a chance, this week will be much easier.

I’m giving you three reasons why the Browns will win on Sunday. Because they will. Chime in with your prediction, then read mine.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

Browns-Broncos Analysis

Three reasons the Browns will win on Sunday

1 – The Browns’ biggest weakness, run defense, is marginalized by Denver’s unproven rushing attack

The Broncos have long been known as a running team, ever since Terrell Davis began the legendary run of 1,000-yard backs that Mike Shanahan seemed to pluck off of the trees outside the Broncos’ practice facility. There was Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis and Mike Bell, and on and on and on.

Their rushing prowess also led to consistent success and many playoff berths for the Broncos, with the franchise winning at least eight games every year between 2000-2006 after winning 37 games in three years between 1996-1998.

But Denver has not had a 1000-yard back since Tatum Bell ran for 1,025 yards in 2006. Not coincidentally, they haven’t had a winning season since 2006. Also not coincidentally, 2007 is the season Jay Cutler took over as their quarterback.

The end result is that by last season, the Broncos were 12th in the league in rushing at 116.4 yards per game. That is actually impressive when you consider that they did not have a back eclipse 343 yards, with Shanahan employing a revolving door of Michael Pittman, Peyton Hillis, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, and others.

(Note: the picture above is rumored to have been taken after Shanahan was shown the Broncos’ final 2008 rushing statistics. I cannot confirm this, however.)

The Broncos’ transition from a running team to a passing team was essentially complete at the end of last year, with the results obvious: a 15-17 record during the 2007 and 2008 seasons with no playoff berths.

In 2009, Jay Cutler has been replaced by Kyle Orton and the Broncos are counting on a rookie first round draft pick, Knowshon Moreno, and a career backup, Correll Buckhalter, to carry the load on offense. 

One would think that the Broncos’ Week One matchup might have offered a chance for the running game to get going early in the season. The Cincinnati Bengals were 21st in the league in rushing defense last year. However, the Broncos’ offense struggled all day, netting a total of 302 yards with Buckhalter and Moreno combining for just 65 yards on 16 carries.

Certainly, I and everyone else expect them to have more success running the ball against the Browns, a team that few have been worse than over the past few years at stopping the run. But the Broncos will not be able to run roughshod all over Cleveland like the Vikings did.

Minnesota blew the Week One game open in the second half because Adrian Peterson is an absolute beast. In the first half, Cleveland actually played very well and contained the Vikings on the ground. On Sunday, I expect the Browns defensive performance to be much closer to the first half of Week One as opposed to the second half.

I’m sure that Denver will get 110-120 yards on the ground. The Browns are not going to miraculously become a good defense against the run overnight. But I do believe they will be able to contain the Broncos enough, like Cincinnati did, to make Kyle Orton beat them.

I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton, which me leads to reason No. 2 why the Browns will win on Sunday…

 

2 – I’ll take my chances with Kyle Orton

The Broncos beat the Browns last year because Jay Cutler, despite his uneven record as a starting quarterback, is supremely talented and capable of getting into a zone that few QBs in the NFL can match. Cutler also had a great rapport with WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and it was certainly on display last season.

That said, Cutler is douchy, inconsistent, and has poor leadership skills, which in my mind makes him a hugh risk as a franchise QB. Obviously though, none of that mattered in the fourth quarter last year.

Kyle Orton, on the other hand, is not the type of quarterback who can beat you on his own.

In Week One, Orton finished the game with solid numbers: 17-28, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But take away his fluky touchdown pass to Brandon Stokley that won the game, and this is what his numbers would have been: 16-27, 146 yards, 0 TDs.

Against Cincinnati’s defense.

I realize the irony of a Browns fan criticizing another team’s offense, but the Broncos offensive attack just does not scare me. If the Browns can contain the Broncos’ running game, which I believe that we will, it will put the onus on Kyle Orton to win the game.

Despite the fluky madness that ended last week’s game—for which Orton gets no credit, sorry—I don’t believe Kyle Orton will be able to get the job done.

The truth is that I see the Broncos and Browns as very similar teams. Both teams’ running games have potential, but have shown nothing yet. Both teams have pedestrian QBs that are incapable of winning games on their own. Both teams also have defenses with some obvious strengths, but also some very obvious holes and debilitating weaknesses.

So, considering that the Broncos are playing at home, what leads me to believe that the Browns will win on Sunday?

 

3 – Sunday’s game will be a close one in which special teams make a huge difference; the Browns have the decided advantage in this area.

No discussion of the Browns’ special teams can begin anywhere but with the best special teams player in the NFL: Joshua Cribbs.

In case anyone needed a reminder of Cribbs’ greatness, he took a punt 67 yards to the house last Sunday against the Vikings. For his career, Cribbs averages 11.1 yards per punt return and has score twice. On kickoffs, Cribbs averages 26.3 yards per return and has scored five times.

Eddie Royal, who handles the return duties for Denver and did so last year as well, has yet to score in his young career and falls short of Cribbs’ averages in both areas.

Kicker is another area where the Browns have an advantage.

Phil Dawson has made of 82.9 percent of his kicks over his successful career, with numerous clutch game-winners over the past two seasons. He may not have the strongest leg in the NFL, but he’s 12-14 between 40-49 yards over the past two seasons and did kick a 56-yarder last season. 

Matt Prater, who handles placekicking duties for Denver, is only a 70 percent career kicker despite going 2-2 in Week One on a couple of long kicks. Last season, he was only 5-11 from 40-49 yards.

In a close game, I’ll take my chances with our far more proven kicker.

The Browns also have the more consistent punter and punt coverage unit. In 2008, Dave Zastudil averaged 45.5 yards per punt, pinned the other team inside their 20-yard line on 30.7 percent of his kicks, and the Browns gave up an average punt return of only 7.3 yards, good for an overall net of 42.3. Also, 43 of Zastudil’s punts were fair caught.

Brett Kern handles the punting duties for Denver, and while he averaged 46.7 yards per kick in 2008, he only pinned the opposing team inside its 20-yard line on 28.3 percent of his kicks. Additionally, the Broncos gave up 4.5 more yards per punt return (11.8) than the Browns, which resulted in a net punt average of 39.6 for Kern.

Here is the best thing about Kern from a Browns perspective: he kicks it long but they are returnable. Whereas only 42.6 percent of Zastudil’s punts were returned in 2008, 60.8 percent of Kern’s were returned. This only accentuates our advantage in the return game and makes Cribbs even more of a factor.

In a game between two subpar offenses, the hidden yardage of the return game could be huge. Points will most likely be at a premium, and the team can put itself in the best position to score with solid field position will most likely end up on top.

Hence why I believe the Browns will win on Sunday.

Browns-Broncos Prediction

I don’t think that Denver is a very good team this year. I’m not sure that the Browns are a good team either, but I do believe we are better than the Broncos.

What does give me a little bit of pause in picking Cleveland to win this Sunday is the fact that the game is in Denver, which has always been a tough place for opponents to play. Between the rowdy fans, the altitude, and the typically strong teams Denver has had, coming into the Mile High city and getting a W has never been easy.

But after the huge withdrawal that the Broncos made from the football karma bank last week, improbably snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, they are ripe for a little payback in Week Two. Add this impending karmic payback to the payback the Browns will already have on their minds after last season’s fourth quarter debacle, and Browns fans have yet another reason to believe.

Last season, the Browns outplayed the Broncos for 45 minutes and then simply ran into a 15-minute fourth quarter buzz saw that could not be stopped. That threat is now gone with Jay Cutler replaced by Kyle Orton.

I think Sunday’s game will be much more like the first three quarters of the 2008 matchup than it will be like the final quarter. In fact, it will probably even be a little closer.

But if you take away that final quarter, the Browns would have won in ‘08.

One year later, with special teams being the difference, the Browns will finish the job.

Take the Browns and the points but understand that you won’t need them:

Cleveland Browns 17 | Denver Broncos 16

**********

* – Jay Cutler in Browns-Broncos ‘08 photo credit: Duncan / AP via New York Daily News

* – Joshua Cribbs photo credit: Bleacher Report

* – Phil Dawson photo credit: Waiting For Next Year

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Week Two NFL Picks and Predictions

Last Tuesday, I wrote my Week One preview and predictions. I will be doing this (like every other writer on the planet) each week.

Week Two is going to be a little bit different, because, quite frankly, I did such a bad job at picking against the spread (5-10), that I honestly have no business picking that way anymore.

If I worked in Vegas and did that badly last weekend, I would have fired myself.

I did much better picking straight up, finishing 9-6. I would have done better had Cincinnati not blown the game in the final seconds of the fourth quarter, and my upset special of the week, the Oakland Raiders over the San Diego Chargers, would have been a massive victory for me had Darren Sproles not scored with 18 seconds left.

My biggest win, which I took some heat for, was the Philadelphia Eagles beating the Carolina Panthers 31-10. I even got emails from Eagles fans telling me how crazy I was, and it turns out they beat them even worse than that.

So, without further ado, here are my Week Two picks, minus the point spread.

Panthers (0-1) at Falcons (1-0)

The Atlanta Falcons looked impressive in their Week One victory against the Miami Dolphins, while the Carolina Panthers looked like last year’s Detroit Lions. Losing Tony Gonzalez will hurt Atlanta, but not losing Jake Delhomme has hurt the Panthers worse.

Falcons win 27-12.

 

Vikings (1-0) at Lions (0-1)

The bad news for the Minnesota Vikings is they have to open the 2009 season with two road games. The good news is the games are against the Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions. 

The Vikings will abuse Matthew Stafford like they did Brady Quinn, and this game will be as big of a beat down as last week.

Vikings win 34-14.

 

Bengals (0-1) at Packers (1-0)

Both teams played exciting games last week, each coming out at opposite ends. Cincy lost a heartbreaker against Denver, while Green Bay won against long time rival Chicago.

The biggest concern in Cincinnati should be that they were unable to produce points against a weak Denver defense. Cincinnati is supposed to be able to put points on the board, and if they can’t, they won’t win.

Packers win 28-17.

 

Texans (0-1) at Titans (0-1)

The Tennessee Titans lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but they showed that the loss of Albert Haynesworth was not as bad as people believed it would be. They still have one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. The Houston Texans could not manage to beat the rookie-led New York Jets at home and have no chance of beating the Titans on the road in their home opener.

Titans wins big 34-7.

Raiders (0-1) at Chiefs (0-1)

Both the Oakland Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs impressed me in their losses last week against the Baltimore Ravens and Chargers, respectively. I would like to make either of these teams my upset pick of the week, but this game would not be an upset regardless of who wins.

The Chiefs put a lot of points against a great Baltimore defense last week, and I think they can do it again against the Raiders.

Chiefs win 21-17.

 

Patriots (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0)

As much slack as I am going to take from New England Patriots fans about this, either Tom Brady does not seem fully healed from his injury, or he is playing scared.

He played great in the clutch last week, leading two TD drives in the last two minutes of the game. But against a weak Buffalo defense, he should have never needed them.

The Jets seem to have a chip on their shoulder now that Rex Ryan is the coach, and they are looking to knock off the Patriots.

Jets win 31-28.

 

Saints (1-0) at Eagles (1-0)

This would have been my game of the week, had Donovan McNabb not been injured. The strength of the two teams is going to be fun to watch, as the New Orleans Saints’ offense, one of the most potent in the NFL, takes on one of the best defenses in the NFL.

The real issue is, can Kevin Kolb or Jeff Garcia put any points on the board against the Saints’ defense? I am not sure, but we know that the Saints will put some up against Philadelphia.

Saints win 24-10.

 

Rams (0-1) at Redskins (0-1)

After I picked the Washington Redskins as my upset team of the week last week, they let me down. I was ready to pick almost anyone against them, it’s just the St. Louis Rams are so bad, I have a hard time picking them to beat anyone.

I am going to go with the Redskins again this week, but if they lose to the Rams, I am not going to pick them to win another game this year, even if they play the Lions!

Redskins win 17-7.

Cardinals (0-1) at Jaguars(0-1)

Arizona lost a heartbreaker to the San Francisco 49ers last week and are in danger of going 0-2. The Jacksonville Jaguars impressed me in their tough-fought loss to the Indianapolis Colts. The Jags go home, and the Cardinals travel cross-country, and they are not good at winning on the East Coast.

Jaguars win 21-20.

 

Seahawks (1-0) at 49ers (1-0)

Both teams were impressive in their Week One victories, and this is the hardest game for me to pick this week.

The Seattle Seahawks spanked a much worse team that then 49ers beat, but handled the Rams like good teams should. The 49ers upset the NFC Champs.

This Week Two matchup could have implications in the division down the road as a tie breaker between the teams, so this is one of the most important games of Week Two.

I am going with the 49ers because the game is in San Francisco.

49ers win 27-24.

 

Buccaneers (0-1) at Bills (0-1)

Playing on the road on Monday night, against Tom Brady in his return from injury, the Buffalo Bills impressed me. Had Leodis McKelvin not fumbled the kickoff in the last two minutes of the game, the Bills would have upset the Patriots and cast doubt across Patriot nation.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got manhandled at home against the Dallas Cowboys.

Bills win 21-13.

 

Ravens (1-0) at Chargers (1-0)

One of the best games of the week. The Ravens were unimpressive against the Chiefs last week, while the Chargers struggled against the Raiders.

The Ravens’ defense will have to perform better against the Chargers than they did against the Chiefs, or they will have no chance of beating the Chargers.

Chargers win 28-17.

Steelers (1-0) at Bears (0-1)

Both teams lost their defensive leader in Week One, as the Steelers lost Troy Polamalu for 3-6 weeks (MCL Sprain) and the Bears lost defensive captain Brian Urlacher for the season (fractured wrist).

The Steelers’ defense may have lost some of its spark, but the Bears lost possibly the best player on their team.

In the long run, this game will be decided by the man under center. Ben Roethlisberger vs Jay Cutler.

Steelers win 31-14.

 

Browns (0-1) at Broncos (1-0)

I said before the season started, these were going to be two of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and I still believe it.

I was more impressed with the Browns against the Vikings than I was with the Broncos against the Bengals. The Browns’ defense held AP, at least in the first half, and there is no one on the Broncos that is even close to as good as AP.

Browns win 24-10.

 

Giants (1-0) at Cowboys (1-0)

The Cowboys open their new stadium against one of their biggest rivals. I would think in scheduling they would have requested someone like the Lions or Redskins to open their new massive stadium.

Instead of a cupcake they will take on the Giants, and I think it will turn out to be a mistake.  The Giants’ defense is considerably better than the Buccaneers’, and they are not going to move the ball like they did last week.

Giants win in my upset special 24-19.

 

Monday Night Football

 

Colts (1-0) at Dolphins (0-1)

After losing in Week One to the Falcons, the Dolphins have to beat the Colts in order to avoid going 0-2 and causing panic in Miami.

The Colts looked less than impressive against the Jaguars last weekend, barely squeaking by what many considered (myself included) a much weaker team.

Is it that the Colts are not the same without Tony Dungy as coach? Was Miami a one year wonder? We will find out on Monday Night Football.

Miami wins 21-17.

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Steelers vs. Bears Preview: Moon over Chicago

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

Can you quantify the importance of Troy Polamalu and Brian Urlacher to their respective teams? Probably not. But it would be much easier to quantify amount of hair when discussing the two defensive superstars—Urlacher has none, Polamalu has lots. Hair or no hair, injuries have sidelined both, Polamalu for three to six weeks, Urlacher for the entire season.

As for the Bears offense, maybe Josh McDaniels is a genius, and expediting Jay Cutler to Chicago was a shrewd move for Denver. If last Sunday night’s game in Green Bay is any indication, maybe Cutler isn’t cut out for life in the NFC North, or life without the beneficial calls of Ed Hochuli. Cutler’s four interceptions contributed to the Bears’ 21-15 demise in Green Bay, while Urlacher’s dislocated wrist further clouded a dark night.

“That’s two limp-wristed performances we could have done without,” says Lovie Smith. “Urlacher’s wrist can be surgically repaired; Cutler’s is a handicap he, and we, may have to just live with. But I’m dealing with it the only way I know how—by seeking to trade Cutler. You know it’s bad for a quarterback in Chicago when people in helicopters are mooning him.”

Cutler will face a Pittsburgh defense that thrives on quarterback pressure, a feature that was equally as, if not more, important to last year’s success than a phantom roughing the passer call on the Cardinals Karlos Dansby. Defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will attempt to confuse an already confused quarterback.

Ben Roethlisberger throws for 284 yards and two touchdowns, and Pittsburgh wins, 23-14.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Have These Questions to Answer on Sunday

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take to the road and visit Buffalo for the first time on Sunday. Here are the questions about this team on the minds of many Buccaneer faithful:

1. Will Antonio Bryant be able to play effectively, if at all, against the Bills?

Bryant’s surgically-repaired knee is flaring up. He missed practice on Thursday and his status is a concern for this team. Without him, the Bucs are at a strategic disadvantage.

2. How will Jeff Faine’s absence affect the offensive line play?

Sean Mahan was re-signed this week and will start at center on Sunday. 

3. Can the running game continue the success it had against the Cowboys?

Derrick Ward says he already has a named picked out for himself, Cadillac Williams, and Earnest Graham. Perhaps he’d better wait until they put together three or four solid games consecutively.

4. Will Byron Leftwich have success against the Buffalo secondary?

The Buffalo defensive line put tremendous pressure on Tom Brady, who is a bit more elusive than Leftwich.

5. Will the Buccaneer secondary correct the problems that surfaced against Dallas?

The absence of Tanard Jackson was the underlying cause for the breakdown in the secondary. Sabby Piscatelli had a miserable afternoon and needs to recover on Sunday.

6. Can the Buccaneer defense stop the Bills from running?

The Bucs had success stopping Dallas for the most part. Can they do it again?

7. Will Cadillac continue his comeback?

The biggest positive last week was Cadillac’s performance. He ran often and hard and gained major yardage in the first half. The Bucs had to move away from the running game in the second half when they started to fall behind.

8. Will Kellen Winslow play a bigger role?

Sure, he caught a touchdown pass, but at the end of the day, he didn’t contribute the way you’d think the highest-paid tight end in the NFL might.

9. Will Michael Clayton’s success continue?

Almost impressive as Cadillac was Michael Clayton’s performance. He was the leading receiver and made impressive catches for most of the afternoon. If Bryant is out of action, can he function as the No. 1 receiver?

10. Will the special teams improve from their sub-standard performance?

The Bucs need to get Clifton Smith rolling and need to find out if Michael Nugent is a reliable field goal kicker. Take away the blocked kick and he was still 0-for-1. In close games, he’ll be needed.

There you have it, Buccaneer fans. Ten questions. 

The answers?

They’ll come around 7 p.m. Sunday.

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Lions-Vikings: Beer Thinker’s Week Two Preview

What is the best metaphor for the Lions after having been defeated by Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints, only to now face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings?

Out of the frying pan and into the fire seems best suited.

While the outcome of last week’s game was similar to games played last season, there is a consensus the Lions have improved. Special teams had two good returns to give the Lions good field position, which resulted in 10 of the 27 points scored. Louis Delmas picked up a fumble and ran 65 yards for the score, resulting in another seven points. 

While I agree that overall the team play has improved, a loss is still a loss.

 

Vikings on Offense

The Vikings picked up Brett Favre, and anyone who is a Viking and/or a Favre fan has put the Vikings into the Super Bowl. Favre, while still able to throw the ball better than 95 percent of the quarterbacks in the NFL, has admitted that he doubts his own durability.

He has changed his mindset from being the all-out gunslinger to just managing the game. His 14-of-21 completions, 110 yards, and one touchdown against the Browns showed that. But with a running back like Peterson rushing for 180 yards and three touchdowns, he doesn’t need to do much else. 

The Lions did keep Peterson out of the end zone in the two games played last year, thought he did rush for 216 over those two games. Both of those games were probably Detroit’s best defensive efforts as the Lions lost by a combined six points.

 

Vikings on Defense

The Vikings defense had a solid game last week against the Cleveland Browns. They are currently ranked 11th overall (10th against the pass and 19th against the run). However, they did give up 20 points to Brady Quinn and the Browns, an offense that, like the Lions, has been struggling. They allowed one passing touchdown and held the Browns’ rushing game to 89 yards. 

 

Lions on Offense

One thing the Lions did well last week against the Saints was protect Matt Stafford as they gave up only one sack. Stafford had a lot of opportunities to complete passes, but his accuracy was off. But even at that, there weren’t many wobbly passes. He was throwing nice, tight spirals, even if they did go into the ground. 

He did show flashes of his capabilities in hooking up with Calvin Johnson on a nice 64-yard reception, but they have got to get the ball in CJ’s hands more than three times a game. 

Kevin Smith had 72 total yards, but only 20 of them rushing. He did run hard but had only 15 rushing attempts. The jury is still out on the new offensive blocking scheme.  Brandon Pettigrew has to be more involved, and Stafford must protect the ball better than he did with his three interceptions last week.

 

Lions on Defense

Pretty simple: Stop Adrian Peterson. But as everyone in the NFL is finding out, that is way easier said than done. If the Lions were smart, they would have a linebacker shadow Peterson on every play and rotate between Ernie Sims, Larry Foote, and Julian Peterson.

If they can get the Vikings to pass the ball more, then the game falls into Brett Favre’s hands. 

But Favre has been a Lion killer his whole career. However, as the link above shows, he’s not sure he can last the whole season.

In this article, Favre is quoted as saying, “I probably don’t move around as well as I used to. I don’t think I trust my legs as much as I used to, and I think in all honesty I’m not physically capable as I once was.”

If the Lions can hold back the Peterson tsunami and force the Vikings into a passing game, they will need to attack Favre. It’s their best chance to win for the first time since 2007.

 

Prediction

Ah, what the heck—I am an optimist. Lions 21, Vikings 17.

Salud!

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NFL Week Two Picks: From New England Patriots Fans’ Perspectives

Here we are at Week Two, with the second installment of NFL game picks from the occasionally warped perspective of some otherwise rational New England Patriots fans. Last week, intrepid compatriots Glenn Card and TR each went a straight up 12-4. This week, our fellow fan Steve Frith weighs in with his selections.

Now, for your enjoyment, we present our Week Two picks. Be assured, any agreement among us is entirely coincidental. Well, almost.

 

Sunday, September 20, 2009

 

Carolina at Atlanta

GC: There is no doubt now that Falcons QB Matt Ryan is picking up right where he left off last season. You would like to think that the Panthers will fix some of the turnover problems that they experienced in their last game. Even if they do fix their giveaway bug, they will be hard pressed to beat the Falcons at home. In this game, the Falcons will be dominant by making a statement and nearly keep the Panthers from scoring at all.

TR: The Falcons didn’t have much trouble with Miami last week and Ryan indeed showed that he belongs in the NFL. The Panthers, meanwhile, were about as embarrassed by the Eagles last week as they were by the Cardinals in the playoffs last year, and as a native Charlottean, it pains me to say that. Delhomme can throw the ball all right, but not always to the right player. He will have a better time of it this outing, but the Panthers signed A.J. Feeley midweek, so if Jake starts out badly, who knows? Any way you look at it, Atlanta should have no trouble putting this one away at home.

SF: I’ve got Carolina winning this one, if anything because no team in the NFL wants to lose its first two games. Delhomme had better pull his head out from his backside if he wants to keep his starting job.

 

New Orleans @ Philadelphia

GC: The Saints and Drew Brees were hitting on all cylinders in their last game, but this is an entirely different defense they will see from the Eagles. The injury to Donavan McNabb severely affects the Eagles offense whether he is able to play or not. We’ve seen Kevin Kolb before and he is a suitable place holder, but I don’t think he can keep up with the Saints’ production. I’m picking the Saints for a win in this matchup.

TR: As much as I respect the Eagles’ defense, the Saints aren’t going to be intimidated. They just have too many ways to hurt you. McNabb’s injury puts Philadelphia behind the eight ball, so I’m going with New Orleans even if they are on the road.

SF: This should be a good game. While Brees and the Saints have a top-notch passing game, the Eagles’ defense is no slouch either. Last week, Brees had outstanding numbers.  On the flip side, the Eagles’ defense had a terrific game stopping the pass.  Unless McNabb comes back from his fractured rib (as of Wednesday, he’s listed as “did not participate in practice”), I don’t see the Eagles taking the win.

 

New England @ NY Jets

GC: The Jets have found a starting quarterback with Mark Sanchez and he had a great first outing. Good for them. Despite the Patriots’ loss of veteran players on defense, the schemes that the Patriots will put together are going to sorely test the rookie QB. The Jets’ defense looked to be a huge upgrade from last year, but the Patriots’ offense just passed a big test that found Tom Brady and the rest of the boys having a hard time in the red zone. New England will fix its scoring problems and will hand the Jets their first loss of the season.

TR: With a game under his belt, Tom Brady will come out with great confidence in this one. Yes, the defense was soft against Buffalo, but this is the re-tooled defense we have been looking for; it will come out with confidence too, a Bill Belichick work-in-progress. The Patriots’ biggest problem will be the absence of injured linebacker and freshly appointed defensive leader Jerod Mayo. Sanchez made a good show against Houston, but that was…Houston. Even at home, I believe the Jets will struggle as the Patriots will not be playing catch-up. Best of all, nobody will be wearing funny-looking uniforms.

SF: This is yet another divisional game for the Pats and they don’t want a repeat of last season (win or lose the division decided by a tie breaker). Look for the Pats to improve every week and for Brady to become more and more comfortable and start tossing long bombs with three and four WRs spreading the offense. The Jets’ rookie QB Sanchez looks good, but I’m still waiting for a defense to stomp him. I don’t think that it’ll be the Pats’ defense knocking him on his tail repeatedly, although it’d be nice!

Oakland @ Kansas City

GC: The Chiefs get to show off their new starting QB, Matt Cassel, in this home opener. Oakland showed me that it has hugely improved both on offense and defense. They will go into Arrowhead stadium and steal a win from the Chiefs. The Raiders win this by running their touchdowns and outscore the Chiefs by 10 points.

TR: Can Cassel succeed anywhere outside New England? Does he have the tools he needs to win? Can the Chiefs’ defense stop anybody? A lot of questions in KC, but the big question for Oakland was answered last week. The Raiders showed that they are a much improved team from last year, giving San Diego almost more than they could handle. I see a close one here with the Raiders coming out just slightly ahead.

SF: Last week, the Raiders surprised everyone and punched the Chargers right in the mouth. They dominated most of the game, losing in the fourth quarter when they gave up an 80+ yard run. Seymour stepped up on the defense and made an immediate impact assuming a leadership role, which I believe was part of why they were as dominating as they were. The Chiefs still have a ways to go with the season, especially with the run defense. They’ll stand a better chance if Cassel plays, but his status is still up in the air.

 

Arizona @ Jacksonville

GC: The Cardinals got a wake up call last week; you can’t keep acting like Super Bowl contenders unless you win games. On the other hand, the Jaguars will be playing a softer defense this week than they did last and the Cardinals are notorious for not playing well on the road. This will be the set up for an upset; Jaguars beat the Cardinals at home even if no one is watching.

TR: Good teams wake up after games like the one the Cards played last week. Of course, great teams don’t have games like that one. Arizona isn’t great, but good enough to wake up on the road in this one as Jacksonville takes a snooze.

SF: I can’t see the Jaguars stopping Kurt Warner and the Cards. Of course, Anquan Boldin’s hamstring plays a big role. If he’s back to 100 percent, then it’s an easy win. If he plays, but is somewhat ineffective like last week, then it’ll be closer, but the Cards still come out on top.

Cincinnati @ Green Bay

GC: The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers spent a lot of time on the ground last week and his receivers dropped a lot of balls. I predict that he will be standing tall and throwing strikes in this game. He won’t have to put on any game-winning heroics this time as they will have the win wrapped up early; Packers by 10.

TR: The Bengals make a game of this one as Cedric Benson chews it up on the ground and Carson Palmer rebounds from a bad game last week. I see a close one to the end with Green Bay coming out ahead.

SF: I can see Aaron Rodgers and the Packers winning this one; not by much, but I have them pulling it out in the second half. Look for the Packers to improve little by little. There are whispers of Green Bay being the sleepers of the NFC. The Bengals’ defense should help to keep this close.

 

St. Louis @ Washington

GC: The Rams make a road trip to the east coast just to have their heads handed to them again. The Redskins get a win in their home opener, winning by 14 points.

TR: The Redskins couldn’t handle the G-Men in Week One, and St. Louis was simply pathetic on the road. Can both teams lose? Guess not, so I say Washington picks up a home win.

SF: Honestly, I could care less. I’ll pick the ‘Skins to win, just because.

Minnesota @ Detroit

GC: By having Favre taking the snaps, Adrian Peterson doesn’t have to face eight men in the box each and every play. Every defense has to respect the pass, which gives Adrian running room. Detroit won’t have an answer for the Vikings’ offensive attack. The Lions lose by 10–14 points.

TR: Minnesota did not disappoint last week against the Browns, although the defense gave up more points than I expected. In their loss to New Orleans, the Lions did manage to put some points up. They’re going to lose this one anyway because the Vikings will have the answer for whatever they do.

SF: Brett and the Vikings will take this one easily. Most of the Vikings’ workload will be handled by Adrian Peterson. I don’t see the Lions stopping his runs. I know it’s early, but the Lions are already showing signs of weakness in the run; they’re ranked 30th already!

 

Houston @ Tennessee

GC: Despite the score of last week’s game, the Texans showed me that they are a better team this year. Unfortunately, they are going up against the Titans’ defense that almost held the defending champions back from a win last week. The Texans don’t have enough firepower to make this an upset. The Titans will win this home game by a touchdown.

TR: Houston let me down last week and I am already beginning to wonder about them again. Schaub simply has never shown that he can excel at this level and he will struggle here miserably. Houston, we have a problem.

SF: I don’t see the Texans rolling over the Titans in this one. The Titans are just more powerful overall on both offense and defense.  Titans take this one easily, which really sucks for me because Matt Schaub is my starting QB in my fantasy league. Yes, I’m in last place.

 

Tampa Bay @ Buffalo

GC: The Buccaneers seem to have a promising offense, but even that might not be enough if the defense is giving up points as fast as the offense can score them. The Bills have Trent Edwards running a no-huddle offense that gave the Patriots fits and I think they fine tune the system against the Bucs and get some shots down the field to TO. Plus, they are playing at home. The Bills will win their home opener by 14 points or more.

TR: Buffalo played a good game Monday night and almost won in Foxborough—almost. Tampa Bay at home gave Dallas a game, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, they also gave up 14 fourth quarter points. I don’t believe the Bucs can stop the much-improved Bills at Buffalo; there might be a lot of points on the board at the end of the game and most of them will belong to Buffalo.

SF: This one could go either way. If the Bills start off strong and then start to fade in the fourth quarter, it may be a sign of things to come for the rest of the season for them. It’s a home game for Buffalo, so that might just give them the edge. The Bucs’ defense will need to shut down T.O. if they’re to remain in this game. Some would say that the Bucs’ defense failed to show up last week.

 

Seattle @ San Francisco

GC: The Niners pulled an upset win last week that few would have given them credit for. I know I didn’t. The same goes for the Seahawks; I didn’t give them credit for revamping their offense and last week, they exploded offensively and shut down their opponent defensively. I’ll call this the game of the week to watch as San Francisco wins two in a row and gives their fanbase reason to celebrate at home.

TR: San Francisco stumped me, too and the Seahawks did show a lot of offense last week, albeit against St. Louis. This game will almost certainly tell us which of these teams is the real thing, if either. I think it’s the Seahawks. I also think we need a rule for contributors to this series that we each get one “I just don’t care” per week.

SF: I’m going to give this one to the Seahawks.  They had a great game defensively last week and I don’t think that the 49ers can overcome the great defense and Matt Hasselbeck and RB Edgerrin James. However, Hasselbeck is known to take chances and make stupid throws resulting in INTs, so if the 49ers can get a few picks at opportune times, they might just pull it out.

Baltimore @ San Diego

GC: The Ravens really looked good last week and their second-year QB, Joe Flacco, looked a whole lot more comfortable. I don’t think the Chargers have it in them to hold the Ravens back. I’m picking the Ravens to win by three points.

TR: San Diego could barely hold off the Raiders, an improved team that the Bolts nevertheless should have handled more effectively. The Ravens are a team to watch this season and this is my game of the week as Baltimore wins going away.

SF: This one could go either way. I’m going to give the edge to the Chargers, only because I think that their offense can wear down the opposing defense. Expect a lot of running in this game from both teams.

 

Cleveland @ Denver

GC: The Broncos had a heart attack win last week in a really tough game. The Browns defense is softer, so the Broncos should build their confidence on this home field win.

TR: This game is interesting if only because it is a battle of former Belichick employees. McDaniels’ Broncos made a mediocre showing while winning last week and I think that this is another team to watch as new acquisitions get their legs under them. The Mangini-coached Browns managed to put up 20 against Minnesota and the Denver defense might give up more. Nevertheless, Denver will play a better game offensively and win another one.

SF: I’m hoping that the Broncos and coach Josh McDaniels will win this matchup. He’s looking to establish himself this year as a legitimate head coach and collecting “W’s” is a sure fire way to gain recognition. I’ve got nothing against the Browns…aside from the fact that Mangini is their new head coach.

 

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

GC: The Steelers started out right with a tough win at home last week. The Bears and Cutler have to regroup. I’m putting the blame for last week’s loss on the WRs. If these guys catch half the balls they dropped last week, the Bears could pull off a win. I just don’t think the Steelers’ defense is going to let that happen this time and the Bears have to absorb another loss before they get the offense repaired for the rest of the season. Steelers win this by 10.

TR: I never have been a big Cutler fan and I think it’s just a matter of time before fans of “Da Bears” become disillusioned with him if they haven’t already. The Steelers’ defense, even without Polamalu, will eat him and his receivers for lunch and take home a doggy bag.

SF: The Steelers are without their precious Troy Polamalu, who is an outstanding player with his ball hawking skills…but I don’t like him. Or the Steelers. I hope the Steelers lose. Badly. I doubt they’ll lose because the Bears are without Urlacher, who is out for the season with a dislocated wrist and is a playmaker and field presence for the Bears. I just can’t see them overpowering the Steelers. One could always hope, though.

 

NY Giants @ Dallas

GC: Damn, the Giants looked good; damn, the Cowboys looked good. Damn, this should be another good game. It will be the Cowboys showing off their new digs and scrape by with a three-point win in this first game in their new stadium.

TR: I love these historic rivalries when both sides actually have good teams. This will be a fun game to watch, especially for Dallas fans, who will be celebrating after the game. Did they fix that scoreboard, by the way?

SF: I don’t like the Cowboys. I like the Giants even less. I might even like the Giants less than the Steelers. I do like Romo, though. If the Giants win this one, it’ll be because of their running game. If the Cowboys win, it’ll be because of the Cowboys’ defense making plays when it’s most needed. If I were a betting man, I’d bet on the Cowboys.

 

Monday, September 21, 2009

 

Indianapolis @ Miami

GC: The Dolphins need to get a handle on ball control and quickly. The Colts are the Colts and are always the popular pick. This is my upset of the week as the Dolphins figure a way to stay in Manning’s face and their offense won’t be as tricky as it will be true. This will be a big five point win for the Fins.

TR: If this game were being played in Indianapolis, I would be expecting the Colts to blow the Fish away. In less friendly Miami, however, Manning will have to work harder to find his receivers, especially since he will be missing the injured Gonzalez. Indy’s running game will need to step up as well and I think it will. Colts in a tight one.

SF: I’m easily giving this one to the Colts. I don’t believe that the Dolphins can stop Peyton Manning. I’ll say it—the Dolphins got lucky last year with their 11-5 record.  I’d be surprised if they won 10 games this season. Look for Peyton to hand the Dolphins their second loss this Monday.

 

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Will Philadelphia be Stunned Seeing Jeremy Shockey Up to His Old Hand Tricks?

New Orleans Saints tight end Jeremy Shockey came to the Saints in 2008 through a trade. The former New York Giant was expected to become a big threat for the Saints in 2008 but did not reach the red zone once. While a lot of people viewed this trade as a bust for the Saints, many felt that this was due to injuries and the fact that Shockey didn’t join the Saints until the end of training camp but Shockey still managed to record 50 receptions for 483 yards and not one touchdown.

The main concerns with Shockey were his health and if he could build chemistry with quarterback Drew Brees. Shockey missed four games of the 2008 season due to injury, and while it seems Shockey once again is injured, he should be able to play in Week Two against the Eagles. The other concern was could Shockey build a connection with the quarterback who led the No. 1 offense in the league and that seemed to be answered in Week One. Shockey came off his best game touchdown wise with the Saints and recorded two touchdowns in a 45-27 win against the Detroit Lions.

Now, as I mentioned, Shockey is a former Giant meaning Shockey knows the Eagles better than any player on the Saints offense, at least experience-wise. Shockey had his second best game against the Eagles reception wise with 10. Shockey, a former rival of the Eagles, looks to send a message to the Giants that the Saints meet after the bye in Week Five.

Shockey will be a big part of the Saints offense and will help quarterback Drew Brees. You most likely won’t see wide open receivers with corner backs Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown covering our wide outs. Shockey will look to get open against the Eagles line backers to give Drew Brees a liable check down.

Against the Eagles, Shockey has made it a habit to burn their linebackers so this should not be a problem. I’m hoping Shockey can show consistency in Week Two against the Eagles and match his two touchdown game against the Lions. If Shockey can put together a solid game the Saints offense will be that much better and you could see another pro bowl player besides Drew Brees this year if we aren’t in the Super Bowl already.

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Week Two Gameplan: Broncos vs. Browns

The Denver Broncos are coming off of a game where Broncos nation was sure the team had lost until our depression turned to elation with a little luck and Brandon Stokley being in the right place in the right time.

Denver fans will happily take the win, but are expecting the Broncos to play better than they did last week when they take on the Browns this Sunday at Mile High.

The Browns have been a seemingly cursed franchise over the decades. The Browns won championship after championship in the AFL before the merger but have yet to win one since.

The curse continued for Browns fans when the infamous Art Modell moved the Browns team (players and all) from Cleveland to Baltimore in 1996 only to win the Super Bowl a few years later as the Ravens (2000).

Broncos vs. Browns has some cursed history for the Browns as well. Many will recall the ’86 and ’87 AFC Championship games. The Broncos won both times in dramatic form, first “The Drive” led by Elway in ’86, and then a game that is known by some as “The Fumble” in ’87.

In ’07 the Browns posted a 10-6 record and though they missed the playoffs things were looking up for the Browns once again, but they followed that season up with an uninspired 4-12 record last year. 

The Browns have a new head coach in Eric Mangini, a rebuilt defense this year, and though they lost their first game to the playoff bound Minnesota Vikings, the Browns are not the same team they were the past few seasons.

 

The Browns Offense

The Browns offense has the potential to be dangerous.

Quarterback

No. 10 Brady Quinn

Quinn is a talented young quarterback who can make all the throws and has something to prove. He also has a guy backing him up who made the Pro Bowl just two seasons ago named Derek Anderson.

If Quinn struggles, he could be replaced after this game, so he needs to play well. A guy under with that kind of pressure could fall apart or rise to the pressure.

 

Wide Receivers

No. 17 Braylon Edwards 6’3” 215 lbs

Braylon Edwards is a physical specimen. His height and size create a mismatch for almost any defensive back. But Edwards is known more for his dropped passes and missed opportunities than he is for his big plays as of late. He is capable of being one of the best receivers in the NFL, but has yet to realize his potential.

No. 16 Josh Cribbs 6’1” 215 lbs

Cribbs is one of the most explosive players in the NFL. He is probably the most gifted return man in the game, and in an effort to get the ball in his hands more, he is now starting at wide receiver for the Browns as well.

Running Back

No. 31 Jamal Lewis 5’11” 245 lbs

In 2003 Lewis ran for 2066 yards in a single season, and was just 39 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record. He has never come close to that mark again, but still Lewis is a bear of a running back, using a mix of size and power to grind out the tough yards.

Lewis supposedly has a neck injury, but I am sure he will be on the field this Sunday.

Offensive Line

Joe Thomas, Eric Steinbach, Alex Mack, Floyd “Porkchop”Womack, and John St. Clair make up the Browns offensive line.

The left side of the line is young and elite, the right side are wily veterans who know the tricks of the trade, and in the middle is a promising rookie center. Though unproven as a unit, the Browns have one of the better offensive lines in the game.

Denver’s Defensive Strategy

Cleveland has a stud in Josh Cribbs.

Containing Cribbs will be key to wining this game. Denver needs to kick the ball out of the end-zone on every kickoff, and punt the ball out of bounds on every punt to keep the ball out of the hands of the Browns’ best playmaker.

After Cribbs is contained, Denver needs to do what it did last week against Cincinnati, and put pressure on the young quarterback Quinn while simultaneously holding the line of scrimmage and stuffing the run.

As big of a potential threat as Edwards and Cribbs pose, they are no match for Denver’s seasoned secondary. So if Denver’s front seven can attack the Browns offense behind the line of scrimmage, the Bronco defense shouldn’t be on the field very long.

Look for Denver to be successful attacking the right side of the Browns offensive line getting pressure on Quinn and forcing him to scramble left against his throwing arm.

Haggan and Davis could see a few more sacks this week as a result of St.Cair’s aging abilities, on the flip side though Dumervil will have his hands full trying to get past perennial pro bowler Joe Thomas.

Though the schemes are no doubt different and the Browns are a different team this year Andra Davis should be ready to stick it to his former team this week.

If Denver can shut down the running game and not let Cribbs make plays on a screen, reverse or wildcat play, than Denver should be in good shape.

The Browns Defense

Coach Mangini brought some defensive talent with him from the Jets when he took over in Cleveland and in doing so he put together a more complete well rounded defense.

It all starts up front with Shaun Rogers who is largely considered one of the best nose tackles in the game. Though some have questioned his work ethic, he is effective at drawing double teams to open up opportunities for his teammates to make plays.

Rogers is flanked by Robaire Smith and Kenyon Coleman, who also do a great job of holding their ground and tying up their opponents.

Behind them is a great group of underrated yet very effective linebackers in K.Wimbley, D.Jackson, E.Barton, and D.Bowens. D’Qwell Jackson is the leader of this defense and is a tackling machine, he will be all over the field reeking havoc on passing and running plays alike.

The Browns also have a very respectable secondary with E.Wright, A.Elam, B.Pool and B.McDonald. Wright can hang with the best of them, and Elam is a hard hitter.  Beyond this though, their depth is a little thin.

Denver’s Offensive Strategy

Denver’s offense went nowhere last week against the Bengals. They just couldn’t get anything together. This was not so much due to the Bengals defense as it was due to the failures of Denver’s offense. Dropped passes, penalties, and holding the ball too long put the Broncos in a deficit of yards all too often for the entire game. Denver should be able to correct these errors though, as they were uncharacteristic of the players who made them.

After a lackluster preseason performance Buckhalter played like he did back in Philadelphia and made the most of his opportunities to run the ball when given the chance, and should be expected to do so again against the Browns who gave up over 200 yards rushing last week.

The rookie Moreno on the other hand did not impress, but the Broncos offense was barely on the field last week. Hopefully his lack of playing time in preseason didn’t stunt Knowshon’s growth in the NFL and he will take better advantage of the opportunities he receives this week.

Denver’s offensive line did not have a great performance in week one at all. Holding penalties and giving up three sacks is not what anyone expected from this highly touted group.

The loss of Chris Kuper to injury was really felt during the game, I think it messed with the line’s chemistry and communication in a bad way. Hopefully Kuper will be back this week to return some stability to the unit, but they all need to play much better, mistake free football.

Orton still needs to settle down and open his eyes. Too many times did I see his feet chopping, which doesn’t allow him to set up and deliver the ball. He needs to finish his drop and set himself in the pocket and use his eyes better to play the defense off his intended target.

Orton also needs to work on his mental clock. He tends to hold the ball too long, and he needs to know that he is out of time and get rid of the ball.

The good news with Orton is that he was smart with the football in Week One. He didn’t turn the ball over trying to force a throw that wasn’t there, unlike what a former Broncos quarterback used to do (He lost the game for his new team by throwing four interceptions).

Denver’s wide receiving corps needs to shake off some rust, too. Every single wide receiver on the field dropped a catchable ball last week against the Bengals. That is unacceptable and I expect that it was an aberration that we won’t see repeated this week at home in Mile High.

 

As long as Denver continues to protect the football and doesn’t give the game away with penalty’s and big plays created by Josh Cribbs, I think Denver has a very good shot at taking down the Browns this week in their home opener.

I give Denver the edge in this game because of Clevland’s lack of explosive offense, and the Broncos improved defense. The Mile High air doesn’t hurt either.

My prediction: Denver wins 20-13.

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Team Line-ups for Tonight

Glasgow Warriors (to face Dragons tonight):

Bernardo Stortoni, Rob Dewey, Peter Murchie, Graeme Morrison (capt), Colin Shaw, Dan Parks, Mark McMillan, Justin Va’a, Dougie Hall, Ed Kalman, Tim Barker, Dan Turner, Calum Forrester, John Barclay, Johnnie Beattie.

Replacements: Pat MacArthur, Kevin Tkachuk, Alastair Kellock, Kelly Brown, Colin Gregor, Peter Horne, Hefin O’Hare.

 

Edinburgh (to face Ulster tonight):

Chris Paterson; Mark Robertson, Ben Cairns, John Houston, Tim Visser; Phil Godman, Greig Laidlaw; Kyle Traynor, Ross Ford, Geoff Cross, Craig Hamilton, Scott MacLeod, Alan MacDonald, Roddy Grant, Allister Hogg (capt).

Replacements: Andrew Kelly, Allan Jacobsen, Steve Turnbull, Scott Newlands, Mike Blair, Steve Jones, Nick De Luca.

Neither of these games are on TV, BBC Wales having opted for the delights of Leinster vs Ospreys. But we still get the highlights show on Sunday, huzzah! Edinburgh’s test looks the sterner of the two with Ulster welcoming back Stephen Ferris into their team and already operating at somewhere near full strength.

The Dragons are a good test for Glasgow though, to see if they can kick on and put last season’s worrying inconsistency behind them.

Oh and here is the squad for the “Gael Force”, the third team that will take part in the new British and Irish Cup that will prove a stern test for this lot, along with existing sides Ayr and Heriots. No word on what will happen to those players like Grant Anderson or young stand-off Rory Hutton who could potentially appear for both.

 

National Academy players:

Grant Anderson (Ayr), Alex Blair (Edinburgh Accies), Chris Bloomfield (Currie), Fraser Brown (Watsonians), Tom Brown (Edinburgh Accies), Tom Bury (Boroughmuir), Nick Campbell (Glasgow Hawks), David Denton (Edinburgh Accies), Struan Dewar (Heriot’s), Michael Doneghan (Stewarts-Melville), Alex Dunbar (Selkirk), Chris Fusaro (Heriot’s), Grant Gilchrist (Heriot’s), Finlay Gillies (Heriot’s), Robert Harley (West of Scotland), Robin Hislop (Boroughmuir), Stuart Hogg (Heriot’s), Rory Hutton (Heriot’s), Peter Jericevich (Glasgow Hawks), James Johnstone (Currie), Nicky Little (Hawick), Ashleah McCulloch (Watsonians), Stuart McInally (Watsonians), Lewis Niven (Edinburgh Accies), Neale Patrick (Boroughmuir), Neil Rodger (Haddington), Joe Stafford (Glasgow Hawks), Steven Wilson (Edinburgh Accies)

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Denver Broncos Film Study: Offensive Identity Search Begins vs. Bengals

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Sunday’s game in Cincinnati had yet another miracle finish in the opener for the Denver Broncos.  Fans may recall the amazing finish the Broncos had in Buffalo in 2007 when Jason Elam and the kicking team had to run onto the field with time running out.

Elam made the kick as time expired and the Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills 15-14 at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Sunday’s game in Cincinnati saw the 87-yard deflected pitch and catch to Brandon Stokley for the game-winning touchdown that won’t be forgotten in Denver anytime soon. It was an amazing finish to a game that really had the Denver Broncos searching for an identity on offense.

It’s not because they don’t have a viable scheme, because they do.  It’s not due to a lack of effort, because it’s there. It might be more about attention to detail, ironing out some more technical problem solving, and gelling as a team. 

Frankly, the Broncos’ coaching staff really needs to re-evaluate its play-calling from the preseason until now. There are some serious flaws being exposed in the offensive game plan and it takes momentum away from the team at crucial times in the game.

 

Offensive Film Summary

While Josh McDaniels has come from the New England Patriots and shaken things up in Broncos camp a great deal, he may be long remembered for what didn’t happen on offense. At least initially, he subtracted an arm that can hit any spot on the field in Jay Cutler and believed enough in Kyle Orton to help get his vision going in Denver.

Part of the way the Patriots do business offensively is that they spread the field and find ways to use the short pass game much in the way most teams use the run. Some may call it a dink-and-dunk philosophy, but it is about being a passing team first and a run team second.

This is at least contrary to the way coach Shanahan approached his system philosophy.  Much of the talent assembled offensively over the years was geared toward the zone run blocking scheme with a complementary pass game based on the quarterback’s abilities.

At this stage, given the renewed emphasis on defense, the Broncos have to find creative ways to make the run game matter. Currently, teams are more or less telling the Broncos to make Kyle Orton beat them while they cheat up to stop the run. 

This is sort of a complex, puzzled solution and one which requires a balanced attack.

 

What Actually Happened on the Field

The Broncos decided to start the game with two runs to Correll Buckhalter for which he gained eight and 14 yards, respectively. Not a bad start. What followed was a one-yard gain vs. seven defenders in the box. The Broncos then predictably went to their screen bubble package with a drop from Brandon Marshall. 

Regardless of the drop, the Bengal defense correctly read the play setup and rallied to shutdown the play. Had Marshall caught the ball, it would have been for a minimal gain.

On third down, Kyle Orton forced the ball into Brandon Stokley on a play that should have had illegal contact called against the Bengals. The ball wound up falling incomplete without a penalty against Cincinnati. 

The point here is that the Broncos cannot rely on the referees to give them the call and Orton therefore must find the open man. 

This is a primary criticism of the current offensive system. It requires the quarterback to be a supreme game manager and have a solid ability to keep from turning the ball over. 

To date, Kyle Orton has not proven that he is going to supremely protect the ball.  Moreover, he is not making good reads at this juncture. There were more than a few glaring miscues in this area on Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals.

On the second series, Knowshon Moreno entered the game but lined up in the I-formation nine yards deep on the first play then eight yards deep on the second play from scrimmage. 

On the first play, he gained four yards but could have hit the hole sooner. On the second play, he was shut down near the line of scrimmage.

Conversely, when Buckhalter got his first two carries, he lined up seven-and-a-half yards deep and seven yards deep, respectively. This allowed Buckhalter, the veteran, to hit the hole faster and find his way up field.

While it will be nice at some point to see what Knowshon Moreno can do, immediately alternating series before seeing what the veteran can do is a bad idea. The results are immediate and the Broncos’ run game starts to fall by the wayside.  

This eventually sets the Broncos up in another third and long where yet again Kyle Orton telegraphs his pass to Brandon Stokley in double coverage. The ball gets deflected at the line of scrimmage; two more Bengals converge as the ball falls incomplete with Stokley surrounded by four Bengals.

The third drive finds the Broncos in another third and long situation where Kyle Orton gets sacked with a chop block called against the Broncos, adding salt to the wound.

The fourth series saw a well thrown deep ball to Brandon Marshall go right through his hands. This set up another third and long that saw Orton connect with Jabar Gaffney after his second deflected pass for a minimal gain.

The fifth series finds the bubble screen make another appearance on second down as Eddie Royal gains eight yards. The very next play, however, Orton telegraphs and Eddie Royal is hit by two defenders on his short hook route as the ball falls incomplete.

The net result out of these two drives is that the Broncos’ defense is left out on the field for a very long period of time covering most of the first quarter. This has to be alarming to the Broncos on offense that they are leaving the defense out to dry. It was a theme that continued throughout much of the game.

Prior to the final drive of the first half for the Broncos, they had netted 39 total yards on offense. This is unacceptable for a high-flying offense to struggle as much as the Broncos did, even in the early going. Kyle Orton has to assume the responsibility through his future actions as quarterback.

Fortunately, the final drive of the half resulted in three points. The highlight of the drive was a 20-yard out to Jabar Gaffney which setup the first long Matt Prater field goal on the day before the half. Just prior to that, Correll Buckhalter was the featured back again for the first time since the team’s first series and he helped the Broncos to finally start moving the ball.

The first series of the second half really encapsulated where the Broncos are now as a team under Kyle Orton. Knowshon Moreno started the second half instead of Buckhalter. Moreno tripped out of the backfield on one down. 

Finally, on 3rd-and-13, Orton almost immediately locks onto Brandon Marshall running a short eight to 10 yard out after lining up tight left. Marshall winds up being double covered while Brandon Stokley is wide open running the seam route. Stokley has about a ten yard buffer of space on each side of him as he runs the route. To not find him on a 3rd-and-long is inexcusable.

Orton has shown he is a system quarterback, but appears to be timid in the pocket. Kyle starts by locking on his usual primary without recognizing the coverage. It’s almost as if he’s too afraid to sit in the pocket longer to find the right read. This is very dangerous for Orton and the Broncos. There really is no excuse for these sorts of shallow reads. 

These types of poor reads occur because the quarterback is too focused on the play-calling and not what the defensive scheme is currently in or rolling to. Kyle needs to really read the defense pre-snap and go from there.

On the second series of the second half, Knowshon Moreno lines up seven-and-a-half yards deep while having his best run of the day. He gained seven yards and was introduced to the NFL by former Dallas safety Roy Williams, who put a serious hit on him. Moreno was dinged on the play and did not return to the game.

The next drive really went nowhere, but thanks to Matt Prater the Broncos were now up 6-0 in a game their offense had no business being in.

The highlight offensively clashed with the low lights on the fourth drive of the second half. The Broncos started to move the ball, but penalized themselves on a number of downs. On 3rd-and-16, Kyle Orton was sacked, nullifying all the good the team did to get into winning position.

The final drive is now headline news, but the thing that stands clear is the telegraphing of Kyle Orton and predictability of the offensive scheme. Both are to blame for what followed next. 

On first down, Orton throws a 10-yard out to Brandon Marshall near the sidelines with less than 40 seconds left in the game. The ball is nearly picked off by one of two Bengal DBs in the area. 

On the next play, the Broncos benefited from the triple team on Brandon Marshall when the ball was deflected to Brandon Stokley, who raced 87 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

 

Offensive Scheme:  C-/D+

Any time your play-calling is predictable, your play-calling is average at best. Only because the Broncos won did this score not get worse.

 

Play-Calling:  C- 

There is a clear need for improvement, however some of the improvement can come by Kyle Orton making the right reads and pre-snap adjustments. The Broncos should line up under center; their strength is not in the spread offense. 

Moreover, they should limit the bubble screen packages or use them sparingly. One of Orton’s bubble screen passes was almost intercepted. That should tell the staff that teams are catching on.

 

Third Down Conversions:  D-

The Broncos were pitiful on third down, going 3-for-12 (25 percent), which is just unacceptable.

 

The Red Zone:  F—

There was one?

 

Kyle Orton’s Grade: C

Give Kyle credit for having a gritty game, but he could have made his team’s day a whole lot easier by reading the defense pre-snap. Instead, he chose the easy check downs and it cost the Broncos in the long run. Kyle telegraphed a majority of his big passes. This also is unacceptable.

 

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