What Are the Bears’ Chances of Making the Playoffs?

Chicago’s chance at a playoff birth is truly in their hands

After two straight disappointing losses for the Bears and with the heart of their schedule coming up, it appears their chances of playoff glory are slimming.

But really when you sit back and think about it, are the playoffs slipping away?

Well, yes. But then again, not quite.

When you sit down and break down the remainder of the Bears’ schedule, our destiny of playoff glory truly lies in our hands. I’ll take a look at the remainder of the Bears’ schedule and give a brief breakdown of every game, and determine what kind of chance the Bears really have of making the postseason.

 

Week Eight: Cleveland

It’s the perfect “bounce-back” game after getting bounced around in Cincinnati. Chicago is expected to win, so when you think about it, a win wouldn’t be of much significance. But a loss could be devastating.

So what does a win over Cleveland really mean? More than you might think. It would bring us to 4-3, and—pending the result of the Green Bay-Minnesota game—could put us back into the division hunt. If Minnesota wins, Green Bay would fall to 5-3, Minnesota advances to 7-1, and we would pick up a game in the wild-card.

If Green Bay wins, they’ll go to 6-2, which makes them even with Minnesota and we would sit two games behind in the NFC North. But at this point, it’s the wild-card I’m concerned about, because the division is getting out of reach.

Chances of a Bears win: 95 percent

 

Week Nine: Arizona

This, in my opinion, will be Chicago’s biggest test all season. Will Charles Tillman and those defensive backs be able to keep up with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin? I suspect not.

And with the way our offensive line has been playing, the likes of Darnell Dockett and that Arizona defensive line will be in Cutler’s face all day long. The run game will in fact not be cured (surprise, surprise), even after Forte runs wild on Cleveland. Arizona’s constant pressure will keep the run game in check.

And even if Cutler decides to throw, he’s going to have to contend with the Arizona secondary…this game is not going to be pretty, my friends. But if by some miracle Chicago wins, I’m marking it down as a playoff berth. 

Chances of a Bears win: 30 percent

 

Week 10: @ San Francisco

This game truly is a toss-up. Mike Singletary will get an opportunity to coach against the very team he played for, the same team that wouldn’t offer him a coaching gig so he instead went to San Francisco.

Uh oh! You think Samurai Mike wants to make a statement? I think so. But when it comes down to it, there’s one key to victory, and that’s stop Frank Gore (if he’s back in time). Or get ahead early. San Francisco has no wins this season when trailing by 17 or more points. This could finally be the week that Matt Forte gets going.

Chances of a Bears win: 55 percent

 

Week 11: Philadelphia

I’m not sure what to think about this Eagles team. They’ve shown flashes of returning to the team they were last season, but when you sit back and think about it they haven’t beaten any team of importance. They’ve beaten Carolina, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Washington, but had brutal losses to Oakland and that 48-22 drubbing against New Orleans.

My assessment is they’re really not that good. And by the way, Chicago owns Philadelphia lately. Keep McNabb and Westbrook (if he’s playing) in check, and I think we see the Bears get a narrow victory.

Chances of a Bears win: 65 percent

 

Week 12: @ Minnesota

Here we go. Let me just make it plain and simple. Jared Allen and the Williams wall against our battered offensive line? And this one is in Minnesota? Enough said.

Chances of a Bears win: 20 percent

 

Week 13: St. Louis

You get a potential 0-16 team that plays in a dome come into your house when the weather forecasts will probably be something in the neighborhood of 15 degrees with a chance of snow…smells like a formula for a Bears blowout.

Much like the Cleveland game, if the Bears find a way to lose Lovie Smith MUST be fired.

Chances of a Bears win: 99 perecent

 

Week 14: Green Bay

This game is extremely interesting to me. According to my predictions, by the time we play this game Chicago will be 7-5 and Green Bay will be 8-4. It’s obvious that playoffs are on the line for both teams.

I think this game will be just as close, if not closer to than their Week One meeting. I can’t recall a time when Lovie Smith’s Bears lost twice in a season to the Packers (excluding those few bad years in 2003 and 2004), and I don’t think it’s about to change.

Chances of a Bears win: 70 percent

 

Week 15: @ Baltimore

It just doesn’t get easy, does it? After going to Minnesota, home against St. Louis and Green Bay, and now on the road to Baltimore, it’s evident that the “NFL’s easiest schedule” certainly is not that easy. Much like the Minnesota game, I’m going to keep this simple; defense, defense, defense. And I see Baltimore’s defense being better today.

Chances of a Bears win: 35 percent

 

Week 16: Minnesota

Now I said we only have a 20 percent chance of beating the Vikings in Minnesota, but the football gods are speaking to me, and they tell me the Bears may win this game.

Don’t get too amped up, I said may win. Here’s why: Much like Green Bay, Lovie Smith has never been swept by the Vikings. And by this time, the Bears should be 8-6 and the Vikings 11-3. By all accounts, they should have sealed the NFC North title by then and would strictly be playing for bragging rights… just how the Bears want them.

A domed team comes into a frozen Soldier Field (at night too, when it’s even colder), Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson may in fact be benched to be saved until January. If Chicago has any dreams of playoffs, they MUST beat the Vikings at least once, and I sense that this is that one. I just can’t see them going into the Metrodome beating the Vikings in midseason form, whereas a Vikings team coming into a cold Chicago with a division title locked up?

Chances of a Bears win: 51 percent

 

Week 17: @ Detroit

How about this for drama? Chicago battles back from a 3-3 start get to 9-6 and travel to Detroit where a win means a wild-card berth and a loss means going home for another January. Sound familiar? Maybe not precisely, but close enough to last season.

I really do think the Bears’ playoff chances will come down to the Week 17 matchup in Detroit. 10-6 should be enough to snag a wild-card berth, as Atlanta, Dallas, San Francisco, Arizona, and Green Bay all seem vulnerable. But can the Bears pull it off?

Let alone, can they pull off a 9-6 record up to Week 17?

Let’s say they do, and this game determines the Bears’ playoff chances. First off, Detroit is a better football team. According to my predictions, they should be sitting at 4-11 by Week 17. In their first meeting, Chicago won 48-24 in what looked to be a close game early until Jonny Knox and Matt Forte came alive. But that was in Soldier Field, and remember Calvin Johnson wasn’t around in the second half and Matthew Stafford was playing hurt.

But let’s be serious; Detroit’s pass rush won’t be able to get to Cutler even with our horrid offensive line. Cutler will be able to throw all over Detroit and make this another high-scoring contest. I say high-scoring because if Detroit can put up 24 points in under three quarters with Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford, they’ll be in this game. But don’t be fooled: if it means knocking a division rival out of the playoffs, Detroit will play with passion.

Chances of a Bears win: 70 percent

 

The Final Verdict

With the team we’ve been seeing lately, I say the best possible record out of the Bears this season is 10-6. Realistically? I’m going with 9-7. As much as I’d love to say it (and I sort of did), I can’t really see the Bears beating Minnesota at all (hence the 51 percent chance of winning. It’s in our favor, but the favorite doesn’t always win).

Will 9-7 be enough for a wild-card slot? No.

Will 10-6? Yes.

That’s the difference, my friends. One game. One game between watching the Bears in the NFL playoffs, or not.

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Raiders-Chargers: Oakland Looks To Right The Ship

For the Raiders, Sunday represents another game for the team to decide on being Jekyll, or Hyde.

For the Chargers, it’s a chance to kick a little more dirt on Al Davis’s team, who have had a horrible streak.

The Raiders have given their fans a trick-or-treat season, looking good in the first game, barely losing to the Chargers, then rebounding with an ugly win against the Chiefs.

Then several ugly losses later, the Raiders beat the Eagles in Oakland, shocking many in the football world. A week later, they reverted to form and were clocked by the Jets, 38-0, their worst loss at home ever.

For the Chargers, it has been a season of question marks. Thought by many to be going to the Super Bowl, they came out of the gate with a win against Oakland but then went 2-3 in the next five games.

Their last game matched them up with the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that is truly wondering which way is up. The result was to be expected, a 37-7 thrashing that was equal parts Chiefs ineptness as it was the Chargers letting loose against a division rival.

For the Raiders, some simple things need to happen for the team to get the win against the Chargers this week.

First, the team needs to find it’s offensive skills. Russell needs to be accurate, with good timing. Fargas and Bush need to rip into the Chargers line often and keep them off-balance. The wide receivers need to make the catches to keep the team moving downfield.

Second, we need the second coming of the Legion of Doom. Greg Ellis, Richard Seymour, and company need to bring the Chargers to a standstill.

Odds are good the Chargers will use their running game and the Raiders need to stop it early and often.

Against the Eagles, if the opponent tried something creative, it looked like the Raiders read it and responded. A sweep was stopped behind the line. Heavy blitzing broke through often, finding Donovan McNabb holding the ball. If we can use this heavy blitz package, our game gets easier.

Lastly, the team has to play smart. Last week the Raiders made a number of missed tackles, even Tom Cable was pointing this out, but it goes beyond that. Players being out of position, not having enough guys on the field, guys unsure of what play is going to be used—these are textbook things that are learned on day one.

Hopefully, the upcoming practice will give a good snapshot if the players are listening. Or if it’s possible, to weed out the dead weight.

Oakland does have some players possibly coming back into the huddle this week. Tackle Robert Gallery has been practicing, which can only help this team. As the offensive line works back into their area of comfort, JaMarcus Russell may get his time needed to work with the receivers.

A win Sunday, would be considered a miracle.

We’ve already seen one, this year. Anyone up for another?

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Titans Players, Past and Present, Try to Reverse “Terrible” Curse

I hate to say I told you so, but…actually, I lie. I really don’t mind at all saying I told you so.

Athletes, especially professional athletes, are superstitious.

The Tenessee Titans are winless since Dec. 21, 2008, in a slide that has even the most well-informed pundit completely bamboozled. On a team that returned 20-of-22 starters from their 13-3 season a year ago, any number of things have gone wrong to turn a preseason favorite into a winless cellar-dweller.

They even added talent on both sides of the ball that was supposed to help them get over the hump, all to no avail. Not only are they losing games—badly, to say the least—they are losing players left and right to injury.

Now, I’m not the first to make mention of the curse of the Terrible Towel—those with short memory spans will note that the Titans’ losing streak began the week after LenDale White, Keith Bulluck, and other Titans stomped, kicked, spit on, and otherwise defaced the Pittsburgh Steelers’ well-known fan symbol, and have to this point been completely unapologetic.

I was but one voice in a cacophony of voices, both serious and jesting, that pointed out the connection between The Stomp and The Slide.

It would seem, however, that attitudes are beginning to change, at least publicly.

At the urging of former player and teammate Brad Hopkins, long a fan favorite in Nashville, both Keith Bulluck and LenDale White magnanimously autographed a Myron Cope “Official Terrible Towel” and shipped it via overnight delivery to the Allegehany Valley School in Pittsburgh, the organization that benefits from the sale of the towels.

No word, of course, on whether it is the actual towel that was stomped, or a stand-in.

Either way, it is quite a gesture from both Bulluck and White, both of whom have downplayed their actions until this event.

According to Thom Abraham, who hosts a sports talk show with Hopkins on a Nashville radio station, Bulluck even asked how he could do more to contribute to the organization.

“The players were happy to do it, especially for the charity,” Abraham was quoted as saying.

Said Hopkins, “We can’t figure out what is wrong with this organization, so we figure it had to be the towel.”

I told you so. There, I said it.

Realistically this is wishful thinking, of course, but at this point the Titans will likely take anything they can get—within reason—to turn this season around.

For example,  Jeff Fisher made the expected announcement of the switch to Vince Young after Thursday’s practice, citing that it was an “organizational decision” with the team being at 0-6.

“We wouldn’t be having this conversation if we were 3-3,” Fisher said.

Ironically, Jacksonville is the last team that Young started against before being booed by Nashville fans over interceptions, and sustaining an injury to his knee that got him pulled from action. Kerry Collins has started all but one game since then.

It is also ironic, or at least highly coincidental, that Bulluck and White decided to try and ward off The Curse on the same day that Young was announced as the starter.

So the question is this: If the Titans win this week, who gets the credit?

Vince Young for his stellar play in providing the spark the Titans have been looking for?

Or Keith Bulluck and LenDale White, for the acceptance of their misdeed and attempt to atone for it?

I ask you, Titans fans…how superstitious are you ?

Oh, yeah: I told you so.

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The Schottey Thirty-Six: Top NFL Draft Seniors (Defense Edition)

This week, 36 of the top defensive college football seniors are making the list as we count down the top NFL prospects at each position grouping in football.

If you haven’t yet, take the time to go to my writer profile and check out my latest edition of the 2010 NFL Mock Draft and the offensive edition of this list.

As with any draft related article, this is brought to you complements of DraftTek—the fastest growing NFL Mock Draft website on the internet.

Because of the massive scale of this project, the offensive and defensive standouts will shine in two different articles. Defense wins championships and we’ve saved the best for last.

Bring on da noise! Bring on da funk! It’s the Schottey Thirty-Six!

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The Chance To Make History: Why Packers Fans Should Applaud Brett Favre

When Brett Favre steps out of the tunnel and onto the green grass of Lambeau Field Sunday, it will be as loud a reception as he’s ever received in the 19 seasons he’s played in the NFL.

But for the first time on the hallowed grounds in Green Bay, Favre will be stepping out in a uniform not made of green and yellow.

So the question remains: What will Favre’s reception be, cheers or jeers?

Sunday’s game between the Green Bay Packers (4-2) and the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) is a game deserving of hype in and of itself. It’s for the top spot in the NFC North. It’s between two of the biggest rivals in the NFC. It features two potential Super Bowl contenders.

But add Brett Favre into the mix and you get a game reaching the verge of legendary status even before the first kickoff is boomed through the Wisconsin air.

Many Packers fans have been on record saying they will refuse to cheer for Favre. Not during the pre-game introductions, not the first time his scruffy face is shown on the scoreboard, and certainly not the first time he sets foot on Lambeau’s grass in visitor’s garb.  

“It was hard enough to see him with the Jets. But to see him in purple?” Packers fan Tammy Rainville told The Associated Press. “I still believe he belongs to us.”

What Tammy and the countless other cheeseheads that echo her sentiments fail to realize, however, is they will never have a chance to honor Favre the way they can on Sunday evening.

Yes, he pulled your organization and fan base around like a rag doll during three different offseason retirement debacles. Yes, he signed with a division rival two years after leaving the Pack behind. Yes, he’s the most influential figure in your franchise’s history now playing for one of your biggest enemies.

But, quite simply I ask you, so what?

For the (I would argue) minor negatives Favre has brought the Packers organization in the past half-decade or so, aren’t the 16 special seasons Favre spent in Green Bay worth more than that?

Favre brought Packers fans never-before-seen joy from the first moment he laced up in Lambeau in 1992. He racked up 160 of the franchise’s 637 total wins. He broke countless records, warmed countless hearts, and even produced a Super Bowl title in 1996.

For all of the stats Favre put up while cementing his legacy in Green Bay, most Packer fans will tell you that it wasn’t even about the numbers most of the time.

“It was just fun watching him grow up in front of our eyes,” said Tim Feely, my father and a lifelong Packer fan. “He went from brash young kid to scruffy old man, and we were there to see the whole thing.”

As for the negative things, I’d be willing to argue Packers fans are furthering the pain by hanging on too long to something that isn’t there at all. When Favre wanted to come back to the Packers before the 2008 NFL season and after his second retirement, general manager Ted Thompson did the right thing in trading away the aging quarterback, and with that, the conflict between Packer fans and Favre could have ceased.  

The Packers have a bright future with emerging star Aaron Rodgers. Instead of realizing how lucky they are to have another franchise quarterback come in hot on Favre’s heels, Packers fans have become obsessed with Favre’s post-Packer escapades. Believe me, coming from a lifelong Bills fan: never take a young, talented quarterback for granted.  

Packers fans have a rare opportunity to do the right thing on Sunday afternoon.  

Say what you will about all of the hard-working, fun-loving cliches surrounding the polarizing quarterback—and I’m sure even the truest of Favre fanatics can admit the retirement shenanigans are tiresome-but there is no denying Favre’s positive impact on the Packer franchise and fan base.

So, I challenge you, Lambeau faithful, to give Favre your loudest and best applause when he steps out of the tunnel on Sunday afternoon. A chance to honor a legend while he’s still playing on the field is truly both a rare and memorable occasion.

When Favre left Lambeau for the last time in a Packer uniform, it wasn’t a proper goodbye, losing to the Giants in the 2007 NFC Championship Game. 

Goodbyes are often difficult, mostly awkward, and rarely memorable. 

When Packers fans look back on this game in twenty years, it will be remembered in one of two ways. As the day they booed the franchise’s legendary figure out of Lambeau Field, or as one of the greatest farewells in sports history.

The choice is yours, Green Bay. Make the right one. Opportunities like this come along once in a franchise’s lifetime.

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Austin Collie Makes His Move Among the NFL’s Rookies

Rookie wide receivers have taken over a majority of the weekly Rookie Report rankings.

There are three receivers in this week’s top five and plenty on the cusp trying to make their way into the elite group of rookies. Usually, wide receivers take the longest to become a factor in the NFL out of college—but not this season.

Last year was the year of the running back, save Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, and this year has been the year for wide receivers to shine.

Alas, a running back remains at the top of the rookie rankings.

1. Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos — Moreno is still the No. 1 running back of the rookie class, now coming out of his team’s bye week. The Broncos are 6-0 and he should be well-rested for a run at a division title and The Hazean’s Fantasy Rookie of the Year award.

2. Austin Collie, WR, Colts — Collie has been consistent the past few weeks, and leads rookie receivers in catches. He also is tied for first in receiving touchdowns. Collie is the same type of receiver as Anthony Gonzalez and I believe he still will see plenty of action when Gonzalez returns.

3. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings — Harvin had an average day as a receiver against Pittsburgh, but again he had a big contribution to the team. Harvin has proven to be a excellent kick returner by returning yet another kickoff for a touchdown last weekend.

4. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants — Nicks found the endzone again against the Cardinals. It was a little flukey, but a touchdown nonetheless. Nicks is a desirable big-play receiver, and Eli Manning can throw the ball up and watch Nicks go up and get it. Nicks is making Eli forget all about that other big target he used to throw to at receiver.

5. Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets — Sanchez beat up on the Raiders just like he was supposed to. He did not throw for too many yards, but he did have two total touchdowns and a hot dog. The next quarterback to play the Raiders has to one-up Sanchez by eating a hot dog in the pocket or something.

Coming soon: Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers. Look out, fellow rookie receivers, for Crabtree already is on your heels.

Last Week’s Rookie Report Rankings:

1. Knowshon Moreno
2. Percy Harvin
3. Hakeem Nicks
4. Mark Sanchez
5. Austin Collie

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Six Big Fantasy Names to Sell

Sometimes you just have to know when to say goodbye.

Every year, a handful of first, second, and third-round picks disappoint fantasy owners. The honeymoon starts to wear off after the second or third poor performance of the early season. And by the time midseason arrives, some of these players have found their way to the bench.

For every early-round stud there are almost an equal amount of early round duds.

Steve Slaton may have been that guy for your fantasy team a few weeks ago. His average draft position peaked near the late part of the first round in standard leagues this summer but his season got off to a rather lukewarm start.

He has since turned it around and hopefully you took my advice to buy low on Slaton a few weeks ago.

The problem most fantasy owners have at midseason with under-performing big name draft picks, like Slaton was earlier this year, is what to do with these players? Bench, cut, stick it out, or trade?

Benching the player is usually the first sign the honeymoon is well over. Frustration is well-embedded once a fantasy owner gets to this stage. The big-name draft pick likely laid a couple of eggs that may have cost an owner a win or two.

Cutting the player outright is difficult for most owners. The feeling that this guy could bounce back and be who-you-thought-he-was still exists deep in the fantasy subconscious.

Only the most audacious owners actually cut one of these guys. And those who do incur the risk of watching this guy blow up—you knew it!—as a waiver wire gem on somebody else’s roster.

Some decide to stick it out. You drafted these guys to anchor your fantasy teams and would hate to see them end up being productive on another owner’s roster. Besides, loyalty is an important quality for your fantasy team.

Another option—one detailed in some length below—is trading these players now . Despite the ineffectiveness of some of these guys, fantasy owners still may be in a position to make a playoff push.

Trading some of these big names (perhaps for a handcuff or two? ) could land fantasy owners an up-and-coming prospect with more promise down the stretch.

 

Players with Big Names to Sell

Steve Smith, WR, Panthers

A quarterback change—though not happening this weekend —could be imminent in Carolina. Smith’s situation could go from bad-to-worse with a change now, though it is hard to believe it gets much worse than Jake Delhomme right now.

The one redeeming quality of Delhomme is he tries to get the ball to Smith. Who knows if the same synergy will develop between Smith and whomever becomes the starting quarterback once Delhomme gets the hook?

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Cardinals (8), Falcons (10), Buccaneers (13)
Potential Beasts: Jets (12), Vikings (15), Giants (16)

The Cardinals are hard to figure right now and could abuse the Panthers this weekend. The Falcons and Bucs are torch-able opponents. The Jets, Vikings, and Giants figure to be tough down the stretch.

 

Brian Westbrook , RB, Eagles

Complicating matters for Westbrook right now are the implications of the concussion he incurred during Monday Night Football against the Redskins. The Eagles have not ruled him out for this weekend yet.

Chances are Westbrook misses at least a week if not more. LeSean McCoy would start in his place. Might be kind of hard to move him after the injury but perhaps the McCoy owner would be interested in some insurance.

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Chargers (10), Bears (11)
Potential Beasts: None

Whoever starts at running back for Philly has a nice schedule down the stretch for the most part. None of the match-ups are uber scary, but that does not mean a dominant performer will emerge out of the Eagles backfield every week.

 

Brandon Jacobs , RB, Giants

Few have underperformed on Jacobs’ level so far this season. I mean, the guy is supposed to score touchdowns. Forget the yards. Just get the touchdowns.

He has a grand total of two touchdowns this season. TWO.

That is awful for a guy considered by many to be the league’s best goal line running back. And what is more frustrating for fantasy owners is the Giants’ insistence to get Ahmad Bradshaw involved, even near the goal line.

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Chargers (9), Cowboys (13)
Potential Beasts: Eagles (8), Eagles (14), Vikings (17)

Dallas has been decent against the run of late but Jacobs usually plays well against the ‘Boys. It might be hard to trade him after this weekend, but the match-up with the Chargers should allow Jacobs to rebound some value.

 

Matt Forte, RB, Bears

Forte has one studly game to his credit this season. He is ranked in the 30s among running backs in most standard-scoring leagues. He has two double-digit performances to date.

Not the kind of production fantasy owners expected of this mid-first round draft pick.

The Bears get a gift on the schedule this weekend with Cleveland coming to town. Forte should pick up his third double-digit fantasy day of the season. After this weekend, ship him out of town.

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Browns (8), Rams (13), Lions (17)
Potential Beasts: Eagles (11), Vikings (12), Packers (14), Vikings (16)

Forte also gets the Ravens in Week 15, whose defense is hit-or-miss this season. That could be one heck of a playoff slate for Forte with the Packers, Ravens, and Vikings in consecutive weeks. It should be noted that Forte’s final cupcake comes in Week 17, at which time most fantasy leagues have already crowned a champion.

 

LaDainian Tomlinson , RB, Chargers

A week after taking Tomlinson out at the goal line in favor of Darren Sproles , the Chargers gave him the keys to the offense near pay dirt against the Chiefs.

And he failed. Miserably.

Tomlinson owners who watched the box score know of the misery inherent in seeing your back stuffed, over and over again, inside the five-yard line.

It was not his best day as a professional football player and perhaps a sign that, yes, LT2’s best days are now well behind him.

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Raiders (8), Chiefs (12), Browns (13), Titans (16)
Potential Beasts: Giants (9), Eagles (10), Broncos (11)

Tomlinson has some nice games on the radar but will he finally start to produce against inferior opponents? The old LT2 used to feast on these teams. The Broncos, fighting to secure playoff positioning, will be a tough draw for the Chargers.

 

Greg Jennings, WR, Packers

Some fantasy pundits blame the Packers’ lackluster offensive line for Jennings’ poor start to this season. His play certainly is not what most fantasy owners thought it would be by midseason of the 2009 season.

Unless he switches roles with Donald Driver as the short-route, possession-type receiver in the coming weeks, Jennings should continue to be too hit-and-miss for his owners. A top-tier wide receiver should not be this inconsistent.

Analyzing the Schedule

Potential Cupcakes: Buccaneers (9), Cowboys (10), Lions (12), Bears (14), Seahawks (16), Cardinals (17)
Potential Beasts: Vikings (8), Steelers (15)

Pitch the upcoming schedule when trying to trade Jennings. He does have some tasty match-ups that could be enticing to an owner who still believes in him. Even the Vikings’ game this weekend could be decent in the home confines of Lambeau Field.

Fantasy owners still should be able to get some decent value out of Jennings in trade.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

AFC East at Midseason: Sizing Up the Competition

As the Patriots near the midpoint of the 2009 NFL season, it makes a good deal of sense to consider what we’ve learned about the rest of the division. Which teams will pose a threat to the team’s playoff chances? Which teams are playing for draft position?

In a league that changes as frequently as the NFL, it is necessary to constantly re-evaluate one’s conclusions.

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Oakland Raiders: Be on Guard, Toughen Up

Research is a good thing. Sometimes, you get a shock when you see the results.

I am so curious I spied on the data for the San Diego Chargers. Let’s call it reconnaissance. On second thought, it cannot be called spying because the data is in the public domain.

The goal of my research was to identify the strengths and weaknesses of our opponent. Comparisons are sensible so the Oakland Raiders clearly know what they are coming up against.

Someone commented I should spend time discussing the Oakland Raiders, rather than searching out the strengths, weakness, and points of vulnerability of the opponents of the Raiders.

How immature that comment was. In war, even in football war, you need to study your opponent.

What you find will not always be easy to digest. For example, I looked at the 50-year history of the San Diego Chargers. During their existence, there has not been even one shutout.

Alert! Toughen up, Oakland Raiders. Even if you are tempted to party, sip a drink, and overindulge (a little) this week, don’t do it. Please, focus on preparation for the game.

I had this great idea of comparing their shutouts with those of the Oakland Raiders.

This research was an eye-opener. Unless I am missing something, the Chargers have never had a shutout during the regular season in their 50-year history.

Another approach I used to gain insight was to calculate what I call “differentials.” These are the differences in the score between the Raiders and their opponents.

The total differences in final scores between the Raiders and their opponents is negative 124, or -124. This means Oakland needs to work harder, play harder, and think smarter. Oakland has allowed the opponent to score 124 points more than they have.

It is difficult to sugarcoat these numbers.

All we can say is, “Get out there, and play like you mean it.”

This, then, is a reality check for us. Don’t dare go into the game without being buttressed and ready to play hard.

Enough said!

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Buffalo Bills’ Injuries Require More Shuffling to Starting Lineup

As the Buffalo Bills enter final preparations for their Week Eight home contest against the Houston Texans, injuries are continuing to be a major factor in the Bills’ game planning.

Here are some observations along with the latest news position-by-position regarding this weekend’s decisions.

 

Defensive Secondary

It was hoped that Donte Whitner would be returning this weekend, after missing last week’s contest against Carolina. However, he continues to miss practice, and it now seems likely that he will not play this weekend. 

Terrance McGee has been banged up a little, but should be okay to play. His fellow cornerback Leodis McKelvin is out for the year. Drayton Florence and Reggie Corner have come in and played pretty decent ball. They still need to provide better run support, but that should not be a pressing issue for this particular Sunday.

Rookie safety Jairus Byrd, fresh off being named as the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Month (October), needs to be on the field full time against the pass-oriented attack of the Houston Texans, led by QB Matt Schaub, WR Andre Johnson, TE Owen Daniels, and RB Steve Slaton.

Just as he did last weekend in sliding over to help out on Carolina WR Steve Smith, expect Byrd to slide over towards Andre Johnson, wherever he is lined up. The Byrd streak (three straight games with an interception) going up against a talent like Andre Johnson (NFL’s No. 1 receiver) makes for a very exciting matchup.

We should note that although Andre Johnson was hospitalized for coughing up blood last Sunday, his bruised lung is not expected to hold him out of this Sunday’s game.

Who plays the other safety position for Buffalo? Bryan Scott had missed the Panthers game, but he is now back practicing with the team. George Wilson, just like fellow safety Byrd, is riding a consecutive-game interception streak. Wilson has racked up at least 10 tackles in each of the past two games.

So who do the Bills sit against Houston, Wilson or Scott, or do they rotate them so they stay fresh?

Could the Bills devise a hybrid scheme to play all three safeties—Byrd, Scott and Wilson—at the same time on obvious passing downs to try to confuse Schaub? You could let Byrd play centerfield, something he excels at, and let his instincts take over.

 

Linebackers

Chris Draft has seemingly pleased everyone with his play after signing on as a free agent two weeks ago. In that short period of time, he has apparently got a handle on the defensive schemes, and is pleasing the coaches with his play, leadership, and maturity.

Keith Ellison is currently ranked second in the NFL in tackles. This stat suggests several things, and the truth lies somewhere within these statements:

The Bills are on the field for too many plays every week. Somebody has to be credited with making the tackles out there, so why not Ellison?

Ellison is the only starting linebacker that is still healthy enough to have started every game.

The defensive line is letting so many running backs through that the LB’s have to make more tackles than they should.

Ellison is underrated, and is really coming in to his own.

Paul Posluszny looks like he is coming around again after missing some games due to the broken arm. Had a huge play on fourth down last week when he combined with Chris Draft to stop a drive and get the ball back for the offense.

 

Defensive Line

Kyle Williams has a sprained knee. At least it does not sound like he needs to go under the knife, but expect that he will miss some games.

How many? Too early to tell, but for each game he is out, he will be sorely missed. Williams is one of the best interior linemen the Bills have.

So, filling his role on Sunday will be a combination of Spencer Johnson and John McCargo. Johnson made some plays last week and McCargo hasn’t done anything real special yet. Hopefully one of them can step up on Sunday because the line needs to put heat on Schaub.

The whole defensive line needs to come up big on Sunday. Perry Fewell needs to devise some blitzing schemes to get in Schaub’s face. If the Bills can do that, he can then let his secondary take advantage of any errant or tipped passes to create some turnovers.

The Bills are tied with the Saints for the NFL lead in interceptions. Look for them to come up with some more on Sunday, as the pass-happy Texans should be throwing the ball often at Ralph Wilson Stadium. I have not heard any weather news yet that suggests the elements will prevent the ball from being thrown all over the place.

 

Injuries to the Offense Impacting Sunday’s Game Plan

Quarterback : Ryan Fitzpatrick will still be the man for at least one more game. How he performs at home this weekend will probably be a major factor in Dick Jauron’s decision as to who his starting QB will be in the long term. 

The Bills come back after the bye week to travel to Tennessee to face the winless Titans, and there is a wide debate as to who should be the starting QB that day—Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick?  

Many people operate under the premise that a starter should not lose his position due to injury. That axiom appears to make sense, but then you realize the Bills were 1-4 with Trent, and 2-0 with Ryan, so how much stock do you put in results? 

The decision will probably cause Dick Jauron to lose some sleep during the bye week.  

For what it is worth, Trent Edwards has already been ruled out for this Sunday due to his post-concussive injuries. Gibran Hamdan will once again be the backup, and expect Roscoe Parrish to be the emergency QB once again. 

Running Backs : Corey McIntyre has a sprained knee and will probably miss the game. On the surface, this injury would not cause many Bills fans to pause. But after a closer examination of the alternatives, consider that this is going to force the Bills’ hand into doing something different. But what will they do? 

For starters, McIntyre was the only fullback on the Bills roster.

So, if you don’t have a FB on the field, how do you alter the attack? Here are some options to consider, and I expect the Bills to use some combination of these:

a) A two-running back formation with Marshawn Lynch and Freddy Jackson on the field at the same time. Many fans have been wanting to see this specific alignment used, and this may be the time to finally roll out this unique look.

For example, I could see a screen pass play where most of the line swings out to one side with Marshawn set to catch the screen, taking most of the defense over to that side of the field with him. But then after Fitzpatrick fakes a toss to Marshawn, he goes back to the opposite side where Freddy Jackson is there with only one lineman and a TE left to provide an escort. 

Facing just a lone defender or two, and lots of wide open space, he could go a long way.

This is just one example of a play that makes sense with both guys on the field at the same time. When you don’t use them together, this kind of play has no chance of seeing the light of day.

b) Utilizing Xavier Omon as a blocker for Lynch or Freddy, or bringing a TE back in to the backfield as an H-back. I don’t know if Omon’s blocking skills are sufficient to hold up in that arrangement, and Fine’s blocking skills are only so-so at best. This seems like a less desirable option.

c) Go with a four receiver, one running back set. This would mean more of a short, quick passing attack. You can run draws with the one running back, or screens, or let Fitzpatrick do some pre-planned QB draws. This would also mean more snaps for players like Stevie Johnson, and could get Roscoe Parrish on the field as well.

It also means limited pass protection, so figure that the deep ball is not really an option in this arrangement, unless Texans only cares to rush three defenders. This could be a fun or interesting option with Evans, Owens, Reed, and then either Parrish or Steve Johnson as your fourth receiver.

Another thought would be to set up trip receivers on one side, and then isolate either Terrell or Lee as a single receiver on the opposite side. Just think of the possibilities with that kind of set. This would allow receivers to take advantage of their ability to run with the ball after the catch, as Lee Evans did on the quick slant for the touchdown against the Jets.

d) Maximum pass protection with two running backs and a tight end. Employ only two wide outs, looking for the occasional home run ball, and if nothing is there, have either Marshawn or Freddy slide out as a last resort on the swing pass.

Whatever Alex Van Pelt decides to do, he has to come up with a scheme that will generate longer drives and more time for the offense to stay on the field. Better overall production on first and second downs would go a long way towards making that happen, as well as being less predictable.

 

Tight Ends

The concussion that Shawn Nelson suffered against the Jets has now turned in to bad migraine headaches. Nelson has not practiced this week, so is probably not going to suit up. That means with Nelson out, and Derek Schouman already out for the year, the Bills only have Derek Fine and practice squad activated TE Jonathan Stupar as options.

Stupar almost came up with a nice long catch last weekend off of a Fitzpatrick scramble, but the defender hit him with a perfectly timed collision and jarred the ball away. Fine did recover a key fumble on a special teams play, but the TE position has not resulted in much production since early on this season.

Nelson did score a touchdown in Week One, but has not been on the field as much as the Bills were hoping. He needs to come on in the second half of the season and give the quarterback another option.

 

Wide Receivers

No major injuries to report.

Terrell Owens had a press conference that demonstrated that he is at least aware and appreciative of the issues that the offense is faced with. He is not pleased with his personal performance, and seemed to be in reasonable spirits in spite of all the naysayers that are concluding that the end for T.O. is near or is already here.  

I gained more respect for T.O. after he made an admission in the press conference. When T.O. signed, the city of Buffalo awarded him with a key to the city. In return, Owens promised a trip to the playoffs and boasted that he would personally score 10 touchdowns.

Terrell admitted that if he does not come up with the 10 touchdowns he promised,  that he would give back the key to the city. Maybe this year is more about his personal growth and less about his personal achievements. Perhaps it has been a good thing for Terrell’s ego to be a little more removed from the national spotlight, and as a result, he has matured in the process.

James Hardy is getting closer to be ready to play, but it won’t happen before the bye week.

We were expecting to see and hear more from Stevie Johnson by now, but it hasn’t happened yet. Look for the Bills to get him more playing time as they need to find wide receivers that are going to make plays on a consistent basis outside of Lee Evans.

 

Offensive Line

Not much news to report, but Jonathan Scott is getting closer to being ready to play again. So, that leads us to question if the Bills should insert Scott back in to the starting lineup, or whether they should continue to let the rookie Jamon Meredith play at tackle and gain some experience.

Based on how Julius Peppers handled Meredith last weekend, I would say that the Bills will go with Scott and let Meredith rotate in and out as needed.

 

That appears to cover the latest injury news. Please take a second to vote on the offensive scheme you want to see the Bills employ this weekend, if Corey McIntyre can’t go. 

 

 

 

 

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