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NFL: Regression to the Mean, Sample Size, and In-Season Projections
Published: September 12, 2009
Convinced? You shouldn’t be. Their decline is nothing more than regression to the mean and a lack of sample size. Let me explain.
Regression to the Mean
Regression to the mean—also known as the law of averages—is the phenomenon that explains why extreme seasons far from the average (such as a passer rating over 100 or below 70) tend to be closer to the mean the following year.
It’s why we see the leading rusher put up worse numbers the next year, why quarterbacks don’t put up 40 touchdowns in back-to-back years, and, ...
Read Complete Article at Bleacher Report - NFL
Article Source: BleacherReport.com
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