How Draft Round Affects a Running Back’s Career Performance

You know the busts: Curtis Enis, Lawrence Phillips, Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter. But can you name those sixth- and seventh-round steals, or even the guys picked in the first round who panned out as planned?

I’ve gone through quarterbacks and linemen so far. Next up in this series, I’ll be looking at running backs. Do all those first-round busts mean that all first-round backs are off-limits?

(Note: For those running backs that were picked but did not play, I filled in their missing stats with those of Anthony Thompson, a second-round pick in 1990 with the fifth-worst yards-per-attempt average of all backs with more than 250 attempts; coincidentally, he had 251 career attempts.)

 

Pro Bowls

The graph below shows the percentage of players who made at least one, two, or three Pro Bowls in their career.

After the second round, the pickings are slim.

Notice the spikes at the fifth round. The number of players who made at least one Pro Bowl increased, but nobody made at least three. My thought is that in the later rounds, there’s a chance for someone to come out of nowhere, surprise everybody, and then fade into oblivion.

By the way, one of those Pro Bowl selections was Bobby Joe Edmonds, who only made it as a punt returner.

The next graph shows the average Pro Bowl appearances by draft round. I’m including it to make a point.

After the first two rounds, there is absolutely NO difference between rounds three and four and rounds six and seven. The average backs in the third and fourth rounds make 0.25 and 0.20 Pro Bowls respectively, while the average backs in the sixth and seventh rounds make about one-tenth less than that—0.15 and 0.07, respectively.

 

Rushing and Receiving Stats

Don’t believe me?

This first table shows the average stats of each round, prorated to 300 attempts.

See how the average stats of the fifth round are better than every other round? That may be because fifth-rounders perform the best when looking at yards and touchdowns per attempt.

But what really matters is how each round does each and every year—and that includes the number of attempts and receptions the average player gets. A seventh rounder will never get the same number of attempts as a first rounder, so the better way to look at the rushing and receiving stats is by per-year stats.

I included fantasy points, or total yards divided by 10-plus total touchdowns multiplied by six. If you graph draft round and fantasy points, the resulting line mirrors a more flattened exponential curve.

What that indicates is that the decline in production from each round to the next is lessened after every round—or in other words, after the first three rounds, all the remaining running backs are the same.

 

Years Starting

Still don’t believe me? Check out the next graph, which shows the number of years the average running back starts from his team.

A near linear relationship from the first round to the third round (losing about one year starting after each round), and then a gradual decrease of half a year starting over three rounds. Do you really think it’s worth it to take a running back in the fourth round, when you can get slightly lower production three rounds later?

(Sample size note: No round had less than 56 running backs drafted, and the average for each round was 61.)

What Does All of This Mean?

1. If you’re a franchise wanting to draft a running back, you should aim to get one in the first three rounds, if not the first or second. 

2. After the third round, every running back is the same. Seriously! Either draft a back in the first three rounds, or wait until rounds six and seven to draft your running back.

3. Teams looking to draft players like Mike Goodson or Jeremiah Johnson in the middle rounds should just wait to draft Ian Johnson or P.J. Hill in the last round.

Mock Draft Version 1.0

The Armchair Superstar Mock Draft

Steve and I took about an hour in between, well, grilling and sitting around to do our very own NFL Round One Mock Draft. Here are the results. Thank you, Google Chat! [SN is Steve Noffke, MF is Mark Fodor, both from armchairsuperstar.blogspot.com]

MF: With the first pick, the Detroit Lions select… I hate this pick…. but Matthew Stafford from Georgia.

SN: I agree, they are hoping he becomes the next Matt Ryan. They have a lot of holes, and it could be a long rookie season for Mr. Stafford.

MF: Yeah. The problem is, he is not even remotely Matt Ryan. Anyway, that’s the pick.

SN: He’s not even a Flacco.

MF: exactly.

 

SN: St Louis Rams: Second overall Pick: Jason Smith from Baylor.

They are looking to find the replacement for Pace. There is good tackle talent early, and I think he’s the smart pick here.

MF: Yep. Great pass blocker, solid all around pick.

 

I think this third pick is a no-brainer at No. 3: Kansas City selects Aaron Curry from Wake Forest. This guy will make multiple Pro Bowls.

SN: a Fodor favorite. I remember the feature you did on him. He can play all over the place now that they are switching to a 3-4.

MF: yes, very flexible, and i think he’s a better pass rusher than people give him credit for. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes to the Lions instead.

 

SN: 4: Seattle Seahawks Select: Eugene Monroe OT from Virginia.

I know people are saying they are taking Sanchez here, but there’s value later and QB is not an urgent need. This gives Jones some help on the line and potentially resurrects a rushing attack out west. Also a phenomenal pass blocker.

MF: I agree… one question: Will Monroe turn out better or worse than D’Brickashaw Ferguson (the other VA Left Tackle/High Pick) ?

SN: I think he will be compared to D’Brickashaw (coolest name ever, by the way) early and often because of the UVA thing. I think he will mature into a better pass blocker, but I don’t know if he will be as good of a run blocker.

 

MF: Browns are taking Michael Crabtree at No. 5.

Crabtree is just an awesome ball player. I see him putting up Anquan Boldin-type numbers in the League.

SN: Yeah, trading away Winslow, they need another target to throw to.

MF: Plus, Braylon might be gone, the trade rumors are swirling.

 

SN: 6: Cincinnati Bengals: Andre Smith.

I do find it funny that the Bengals get him with all the trouble they’ve had. I think Smith is the top talent in the draft, but has fallen because of the combine and his immaturity issues. He will solidify the line and protect Palmer.

MF: I heard some radio talking heads saying that this is a ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’ situation. Either don’t take him and look silly when he turns out awesome, or take him and get condemned for picking yet another character risk. Either way, I can’t believe Marvin Lewis is still employed. Smith will be a good player.

 

MF: With the seventh pick, the Oakland Raiders select…Brian Orakpo, Texas, DE.

I bet you thought I was going to say Maclin. But I think they could use an athlete like Orakpo on defense to help give them a tougher identity.

Besides, Johnny Lee Higgins is a BALLER! It really depends on how long Al Davis can last outside of his oxygen tent without the blood of children to keep him awake. The best thing for Oakland would be if he has to retreat to his cave before the pick.

SN: Haha. I can’t wait for them to hire Madden as a consultant. I’d love to see Madden and Davis standing next to each other.

 

SN: 8: Jacksonville Jaguars Select: Jeremy Maclin WR from Mizzou.

Speedy WR who can return kicks. They do need some Defensive help, but with Orakpo off the board I think Maclin is the choice.

MF: I think this is a great fit; Jacksonville has had a long run of 6’4″ wideouts. They need a speedy guy and also a sick return man now that Maurice Jones-Drew is the man on offense.

SN: Yeah, I think Garrard will be more than happy to throw to him.

MF: (Garrard will be happy not to see Mark Sanchez in a Jags cap on draft day)

 

Ninth pick, the Green Bay Packers select B.J. Raji from Boston College.

Packers need Raji to solidify that defensive line. I think he’s a no-brainer here.

SN: Raji is a phenomenal talent.

MF: I think I know who the Niners are going to take here…

 

SN: 10: San Francisco 49ers: Mark Sanchez USC.

Alex Smith did not pan out, so they need to figure out their QB situation. Sanchez will be staying in California.

MF: Poor Singletary. Going from one first round QB flop to another. Butt yeah, that’s the inevitable pick.

SN: Yeah, poor Samurai Mike. Can’t do it, can’t win with them.

 

MF: Buffalo (Toronto) has the 11th pick, with our old friend Dick Jauron. I think the draftniks have this pick pegged. No. 11 is Penn State’s Aaron Maybin, the second hybrid DE/OLB off the board behind Orakpo.

SN: I think there’s going to be a plethora of DE’s taken 10-15, the only question is who’s going to which team.

MF: I would also not be shocked to see them reach for Jason Peters’ replacement in Mike Oher or Eben Britton.

SN: But yeah, Maybin will be a solid DE but can also stand up and play some LB.

 

12 Denver Broncos: Tyson Jackson, LSU. They will need a Combo DE person as well and with Maybin off the board, Jackson is the right pick.

8:36 PM MF: Jackson is a true 3-4 defensive end and a big guy, also a big risk because of questionable work ethic, but I think he’s the pick here.

 

And now for the Washington Dan Snyders at No. 13. Danny selects…Rey Maualuga, LB USC to play the middle. London Fletcher is their best ‘backer, and he is OLD!

SN: I think that’s a good choice.

 

14 New Orleans: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC. New Orleans does not need Chris Wells; they got their offense figured out. They need defensive help and Cushing is exactly what they are looking for.

MF: Interesting. I think between locking down Vilma and adding Cushing, they’re going to be pretty sick at LB next year. They could also go for a hybrid-type guy here.

 

Houston Texans, No. 15, Ohio State’s Malcolm Jenkins.

Houston doesn’t need front line help, they need some D-back help. He’s a little slow to play corner, but will be a great free safety at the NFL level.

SN: Solid choice, the Texans defense is shaping up to be pretty nice.

MF: Yeah great drafting with Super Mario, Okoye, Demeco Ryans.

 

SN: 16: San Diego Chargers: Chris Wells, RB Ohio State. LT is on the down side of his career, here is his replacement. They don’t really need a RB, but I think they would be hard pressed to pass him up.

MF: Beanie! Yeah. He’s not as explosive as LT but would be a nice complement to LaDainian and Sproles. Good, safe pick.

SN: Good value for that pick too.

 

 

MF: Let’s see… #17 is the J-E-T-S J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. I think they’re going with defensive line here to make up for the huge bust last year (Vernon Gholston) and will take Everette Brown from Florida State.

SN: No QB? Nate Clemens gets the job? But no I totally agree, Coach Ryan likes good defenses (see: Baltimore), he will go defense first pick.

MF: yeah I think Freeman is a huge stretch anywhere near the first round. Then again, so are Stafford and Sanchez, but it’s a bad year for QB’s.

 

SN: With the 18th Pick the Draft the Chicago Bears take JAY CUTLER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MF: HOOOOORAY CUTLER!

 

SN: 18 Denver: Clay Matthews, USC LB If they didn’t get DE with their first pick they’d take one here, but I still see them taking some defensive player and Matthews is solid.

MF: He certainly is. Have three LB’s from the same team ever been drafted in the first round? I can’t think of an example.

 

SN: I can’t either.

MF: McShay? Kiper? They got nothin’. (Editor’s Note: Anybody out there know? Please post a comment if you do.)

 

 

Tampa is picking at No. 19, and just got Byron Leftwich in the free-agent market.

I love Byron, ever since his Marshall days. Just a classic cannon arm and a good dude, though Jax didn’t think so.

SN: One of the coolest highlights ever as his Guards carry him down the field and set him down so he can call out the play and throw again.

MF: But they’re not going to go QB or TE here. Robert Ayers from Tennessee. Gaines Adams is a beast in the front seven. Basically everyone else in that front line could be replaced.

 

SN: Good choice.

 

 

20 Detroit: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss.

After going offense early, they now need defense.

MF: They need a lot of things. I think Peria Jerry is a good pick here.

SN: Jerry is a solid run stopper which is needed when 1/4 of your schedule is against Peterson and Forte.

MF: Agree 100%

 

At #21, Donovan McNabb (Philly) gets another quick and dangerous target in Percy Harvin (Florida), who can also do some Westbrook spelling on third downs and those little swings out of the backfield.

SN: I like that pick, gives them versatility to return kicks and do all sorts of fun things with him.

MF: He’s a good value at 21, too.

 

SN: 22: Minnesota Vikings Select: Vontae Davis. I know this might be a little high for him, but you always hear the Vikings can run and stop the run. There really isn’t good value at this pick to help the passing game, so they help the passing game on the other side of the ball.

MF: I actually think Vontae is a phenomenal athlete. His brother is one of the most freakish guys in the NFL (Vernon Davis of the Niners) and its pretty obvious they’re related.

 

MF: Okay. Now it’s time for Bill Belichick (New England) to pick at No. 23. It seems like the Pats are aging at a lot of positions. I think they’ll go with the best value here and take Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma State. Benjamin Watson has not exactly intimidated people at TE. I think Brady will be happy to get a great check down guy (well, another one. He already has Welker).

 

SN: 24: Atlanta; Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. Looking for a target for Ryan. He’s got some good speed and will love playing on the fast Georgia Dome surface for half the season.

MF: Yep, he’s definitely a stud in the measurables. But I think Roddy White and Jenkins came on strong this year. If I’m Atlanta, I want to address defense, where I lost a lot to free agency.

SN: I wanted Pettigrew, dammit!

MF: Hahaha, maybe they’ll trade up for him.

 

MF: With the No. 25 pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins select Hakeem Nicks from North Carolina. A polished and talented possession guy who will look great opposite Teddy Ginn Jr.

SN: I like that choice. He’s good, and you are Mr. UNC after all.

MF: The film on Nicks is pretty incredible and he’s already played for a pro coach in Butch Davis.

 

SN: 26: Baltimore Ravens take Michael Oher, OT from Mississippi. Ogden has been considering retiring and even if he doesn’t, he has fallen way off from where he was (which was amazing). Oher is exactly what they need.

MF: Perfect pick and the Ravens are pretty lucky he’s lasted this long. Only because it’s such a good year for tackles.

MF: I see about seven offensive linemen in this draft who will end up 90+ in Madden two years from now.

I think Jim Caldwell is going to go with the character pick, and it’s also a pretty good all-around selection.

 

At 27, Indianapolis selects LB James Laurinaitis from Ohio State.

This kid can really play. Classic example of hurting your stock by staying one year too long.

SN: yeah, Laurinaitis is a good pick here, staying near home, has a real good pedigree, his dad was a real animal.

MF: That was such a lame pun.

SN: It was terrible

MF: …Sigh… it had to be done.

SN: I am pretty sure I got that from you.

MF: I wouldn’t be surprised.

 

28 Philly Eagles: Eben Britton, OT Arizona. Their bookend tackles have been around for all five NFC championship games, Britton will slide right in and be one half of the bookend for the next decade.

MF: Dead on. Have you taken every Offensive Lineman thus far? That’s unreal.

SN: All seven of them. Not that I’m biased. But it’s also that a lot of teams I land on need them.

MF: Next up are the NY Giants.

 

9:37 PM I think they go value here. No. 27, Knowshon Moreno, UGA. He replaces Derrick Ward, who went to Tampa.

SN: He is a great value for this late in the round. I could see them going WR with Britt from Rutgers, but good choice.

 

30: Tennessee Titans: Evander Hood, DT Mizzou. No Haynesworth, no problem. Hood is their new tackle. 6-3, 298, solid player.

MF: He looked strong in the Alamo Bowl. So did Sean Weatherspoon, the Mizzou LB.

MF: Last pick for me, and it’s the Arizona Cardinals. This is a tough one.

 

MF: I think they go with Paul Kruger, the OLB from Utah.

He’s a hybrid type too and they could use some more pass rush.

SN: I like that choice. They do need defensive help, offense really isn’t a big concern.

 

32: Pittsburgh: Alex Mack C, Cal. If they had a weakness, it was their O-Line play. It got a lot better as the year went on, but they still need some help.

MF: I knew you were going to do that!! Still, I like sneaking him into the first round.

SN: 8 for 8! Linemen are half my picks; but then, O-linemen are half the offense.

MF: I didn’t pick one. That’s sad, because I really think it’s a strong year for offensive linemen, you just beat me to ’em.

New England Patriots Face a Much Tougher Schedule in 2009

The NFL released the Patriots’ 2009 regular season schedule Tuesday night. You can check it out here.

The Patriots actually leaked their prime-time schedule about a half hour before the entire schedule was due to be released. Those crafty…err…Krafts.

 

Prime Time Games

Sept. 14 (Monday) — vs. Buffalo (7 p.m.)
Nov. 15 – at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m.)
Nov. 30 (Monday) – at New Orleans (8:30 p.m.)
Dec. 6 – at Miami (8:20 p.m.)

The Buffalo game we already knew about. We’re also pretty happy about it. It’s a home game, in prime time, against the Bills.

The Bills, who aren’t nearly as good as the Patriots, will be missing their best offensive player in Marshawn Lynch, and could be missing their starting safety in Donte Whitner (depending on how his recent arrest plays out).

Sounds good to me.

The Colts game is kind of surprising. The last few years, the NFL has elected to put the Patriots-Colts game in the 4:15 p.m. slot in mid-November (sweeps) due to the game’s ability to draw ratings no matter when it’s played.

New Orleans should be a fun, offensive battle, and Miami-New England is always fun.

 

Toughest Stretch of the Schedule

Sept. 27 – vs. Atlanta (11-5)
Oct. 4 – vs. Baltimore (11-5)
Oct. 11 – at Denver (8-8)
Oct. 18 – vs. Tennessee (13-3)
Oct. 25 — at Buccaneers (9-7)
Nov. 1 — Bye Week
Nov. 8 – vs. Miami (11-5)
Nov. 15 – at Indianapolis (12-4)
Nov. 22 – vs. N.Y. Jets (9-7)
Nov. 30 – at New Orleans (8-8)
Dec. 6 – at Miami (11-5)
Dec. 13 – vs. Carolina (12-4)

Are you kidding me?

Over this stretch of schedule, the Patriots will play 7 of 11 games against playoff teams from last season. Their opponents’ combined record from last season was 115–61.

Yikes.

Let me put it this way. If the Patriots’ defense plays like it played last season, there’s absolutely no way they win 11 games again.

Of course, I have no reason to believe the Patriots’ defense is going to be anything but better—and significantly better. But the strength-of-schedule difference is worth pointing out.

The Patriots should start the season 2-0. They are much, much better than both the Bills and the Jets. They should finish the season 3-0 (at Buffalo, vs. Jacksonville, and at Houston).

If the Patriots can take care of business at the bookends of their schedule, they likely would only need to go 6-5 against that death-stretch to make the playoffs.

Then again, 11 wins missed the playoffs in 2008…

 

Two Most Intriguing Games on the Schedule

Oct. 4 – vs. Baltimore
Oct. 11 – at Denver

The Denver game is intriguing for obvious reasons. The student vs. the teacher.

Or maybe the team that gave a franchise quarterback to the Chiefs for a second-round pick while leaking that the Broncos were interested in Matt Cassel, throwing their team into complete disarray that resulted in the Kyle Orton era vs. the student?

The Baltimore game is intriguing because, if you recall, it was the 11-5 Ravens that made the playoffs over the 11-5 Patriots. Not that it’ll go back and erase what happened last season, but you can be sure the Patriots will have this one circled.

Obviously, we’ll all be looking forward to the Jets, Dolphins, and Colts games. It’ll be fun to see Matt Ryan back in New England.

Heck, I’m excited about the entire schedule.

How long ‘til September?

This article also appeared on New England Patriots Examiner.

Follow Sean on Twitter.

Questions? Comments? Insults? You can email them to Sean Crowe at scrowe@gmail.com.

The San Francisco 49ers and “The Potentials”

Every April we have a car show here in Redding called “Kool April Nights.” Each year the company I work for hosts a “Show and Shine,” and this year I received the pleasure of cooking tri-tip, judging classic cars, and listening to some pretty good old tunes by a local group known as “The Potentials.”

I couldn’t quite put my finger on in it, but in the back of my brain I knew I had seen that word quite a bit recently—potential. Then it dawned on me; potential is the word that has been used in a plethora of recent articles in reference to a number of players on my favorite football team, the San Francisco 49ers.

Some would say the 49ers’ roster is dearth of talent. I am among those that think the ‘Niners’ roster is not as far off from being a respectable football as others would have you think. There are three reasons that have kept this team, and some if its players, from reaching their potential: Mike Nolan, injuries, and flat-out underperformance.

I just don’t understand why a coach would sign free agents and draft picks and then not play them. The 49ers lost to Baltimore a couple of years ago, 9-7. After the game, defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (now the New York Jets head coach) asked Nolan why he didn’t play Ashley Lelie, he then informed Nolan that if he had played Lelie, the Ravens defense would have double-teamed him.

I can’t think of anything more embarrassing for a head coach. Lelie has since been released from the team and last played for the Raiders.

But it was not just Lelie; under Nolan, rookies hardly ever saw the field. Thomas Clayton’s off-field problems have been well documented, but if you are going to pull the trigger on someone in the draft, let’s see what he can do. Clayton has been a preseason stud, yet he hasn’t seen the field in a regular season game, not even as a return man. Can anyone say Brandon Noble?

Why didn’t we see more of Tarell Brown before Shawntae Spencer was injured last year?

Mike Singletary, on the other hand, has taken a special interest in Chilo Rachal, and not only did he see the playing field in his rookie year he has become the starter at right guard!

Every team has to deal with injuries, however, it seems as if the 49ers have had more than their share of them.

Leading the list is Alex Smith. I am giving Smith a pass here, I could include him as just a flat-out underperformer, but he really has not gotten the chance to evolve into a decent pro quarterback since the hit by Seattle’s Rocky Bernard (now with the New York Giants).

Others that have not realized their potential due to injury: Jay Moore, Jason Hill, Dashon Goldson, and Manny Lawson.

Lawson is the guy I am most excited about for 2009. After a full year back from his ACL injury, and the switch to a true 3-4 defense, Manny is set to have a break out year.

Now here are the guys that frustrate 49er fans the most: the flat-out underperformers. I am not giving Vernon Davis a pass here. I realize he has had a couple of injuries, but anyone who can run his mouth like Davis should be able to back it up on the football field. Singletary seems to have Vernon’s tongue under control, but can he harness this guy’s potential? We shall see.

Ahmad Brooks and Jimmy Williams (recently acquired by the ‘Niners) fall into this category. The team thought so much of Brooks that they wanted to pick him in the 2006 supplemental draft, but they were beaten out by the Bengals. When the Bengals released him, the ‘Niners scooped him up. How does he repay the team’s faith in him? He shows up to mini camp overweight and out of shape—nice. Personally, I think Sing’ has his hands full with these two guys.

David Baas, Isaac Sopoaga, and Michael Robinson round out my list of underperformers. Bass couldn’t crack the starting lineup for two years, Sopoaga doesn’t want to be a DT (is it really his choice?), and Robinson hasn’t been able to fill the role he was drafted for—backing up Frank Gore. But, then again, Robinson was a quarterback and wideout at Penn State, so he gets a pass, and I will blame Nolan for trying to convert him into a running back.

Although no fault of his own, David Baas was actually the 49ers contingency plan when New England snagged Logan Mankins (a 2008 Pro-Bowler) in the first round of the 2005 draft before the ‘Niners could pick him early in the second. I was thinking we had found another Jeremy Newberry when I researched Baas. Now I am afraid he may be another Justin Smiley. That said, I still have faith in this guy. Time to shine, David.

Sopoaga seemed to have a breakthrough year in 2007, so much that the team re-signed him to a five-year deal before he became a free agent. I was expecting a huge year from Sopoaga this last year, but I don’t think he even made a highlight reel. A huge disappointment.

I suppose I would be remiss if I didn’t include Kentwan Balmer or Cody Wallace in this article somewhere, both were high-round draft picks last year.

Balmer is a bit further behind the learning curve than Rachal but a hard worker, so I will give him another year to develop his potential.

I must admit, Cody Wallace is a complete mystery to me. According to the team’s official Web site, Wallace had 252 knockdown blocks his last two years at Texas A&M, yet he wasn’t even activated for a single game last year. Is he a hangover from Nolan’s practice of not playing rookies? Was there an injury that wasn’t reported? Did he just not perform in practice? He gets another year as well, as most rookies should.

Well, it is time to go and check out some more cars at the classic “cruise.” I hope I see “The Potentials” there. I also hope I see the 49ers’ potential realized on the field this year.

How Draft Round Affects an Offensive and Defensive Lineman’s Career Performance

Yesterday, I examined how quarterbacks perform based on the round in which they were drafted. Today, I’ll be looking at offensive and defensive linemen, to see if first rounders have a better, longer career than third or fourth-round linemen.

With Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Aaron Maybin, and Tyson Jackson all projected to go in the top half of the first round, I chose to review linemen before running backs. Plus, there’s not much to look at for either offensive or defensive linemen, so I fit them both into one article.

Offensive Linemen

 

Pro Bowls

The first graph below shows the chances of an offensive lineman making one, two, or three Pro Bowls in his career, by the round in which he was drafted.

After the first round, there’s not much talent to be found. This is supported by the next graph, which shows the average number of career Pro Bowls for each draft round.

 

There’s one notice, however: Pro Bowls for offensive linemen are usually based on reputation only. Since there aren’t any popular stats for these players, Pro Bowl votes go to those who are thought to be the best. For example, Orlando Pace and Walter Jones were elected to 16 Pro Bowls between them, which is most likely double of what they actually were worth, based on their performance.

Also, only 10 players were elected as a first-team All-Pro, with four of them—Alan Faneca, Steven Hutchinson, Jones, and Pace—combining to have 17 of the 23 All-Pro votes in the sample. Twenty of the 23 votes were by first rounders, too.

Years Starting

How long can you expect your newly-drafted offensive lineman to be a starter for your favorite team? The following graph illustrates this.

Somewhat surprisingly, a seventh rounder starts more than a year-and-a-quarter in the league, although this may be due to the three or four spots on the defensive line available for a starter. As with the two previous graphs, the line drops steadily with a slight increase in the latter rounds. But there’s no real trend regarding which round (five, six, or seven) yields the better offensive lineman.

(Sample size note: Every round had at least 34 offensive linemen drafted with an average of 43.)

---

Defensive Linemen

 

Pro Bowls

Not to reuse the same information over and over…but the next graph shows the chances of a defensive lineman making the Pro Bowl based on draft round.

There’s another downward trend, but a spike in the fifth round. That said, it shouldn’t be too big of a notice.

Only eight percent of fifth-round defensive linemen are selected to at least one Pro Bowl—if the average number from 1985-2004 are selected in that round this year (4.35), that means it would take about three years for one fifth-round defensive lineman to be elected to one Pro Bowl (0.35 would be elected in one year, or about one after three years). On average, every sixth fifth rounder makes a Pro Bowl; one makes 0.16 Pro Bowls in his career.

Sacks and Years Starting

Though sacks may not be the best tool for measuring defensive linemen productivity, tackles weren’t included in the data set I was working with. The following graph shows the average number of career sacks by draft round.

There’s a clear correlation between sacks and draft round. Even if I look at it per year, the trend still stands, except for another increase in the fifth round.

Finally, the graph below shows the number of years a defensive lineman is expected to be a primary starter, by the round in which he was selected.

I’m growing tired of saying the same thing: It’s safe to say that the lower in the draft a lineman is selected, the worse he should perform in his career.

(Sample size note: All rounds had at least 87 defensive linemen drafted, with an average of 104.

What Does All of This Mean?

1. For both offensive and defensive linemen, the round in which a player is drafted significantly correlates with his career performance.

2. Players drafted in the first round (the drop from the first to the second round in each graph is quite large, in fact), on average, are elected to more Pro Bowls, have more sacks, and start more years for their teams than do those drafted later on.

3. Fifth-round defensive linemen perform better than fourth-rounders, and slightly worse than third-rounders, with Pro Bowls and sacks in mind. But the difference between them isn’t significant at all.

4. Teams should not be scared to draft Andre Smith (or Jason Smith, or Eugene Monroe) high in the first round. He’ll do much better than what they can get in the third and fourth rounds.

5. I guess Andy Reid is correct in drafting linemen high every year. From 2003 to 2006, the Eagles drafted a lineman with their first-round pick, and in the last two years—in both of which they had no first-rounders —they selected one with one of their two second-round picks.

What the NFL Should Consider Before Expanding to an 18-Game Season

Thanksgiving.

That one time of year where families and communities put aside their differences and enjoy the smaller things. Among them are the hundreds of High School and College Football Games that occur all across the country. Chances are that one instance of such isn’t far from anyone, whether physically or spiritually.

On the other hand, the NFL is in active pursuit of international expansion.  Which may explain the proposal of having additional regular season games to accommodate games in London, Mexico City, Toronto, Beijing, or Berlin.  I do not mind global expansion to increase the international fan base (not to mention the NFL’s bottom line).

A lot of football fans, I have discussions with, would like to see more AFC-NFC games should an 18-game season come to fruition. 

First, that seems to be the case with the games in the International Series as noted in the 2007 game between the Giants and Dolphins and the 2008 game between the Chargers and Saints.

Secondly, it seems as though a lot of fans crave regional inter-conference games which do not happen that often, and which I believe should happen once a year. Needless to mention that Thanksgiving Day (or at least within that weekend) would be absolutely perfect for games like the following:

• Giants vs Jets
• Steelers vs Eagles
• Redskins vs Ravens
• Dolphins vs Buccaneers
• Panthers vs Titans
• Texans vs Saints
• Rams vs Chiefs
• Colts vs Bears
• Lions vs Browns
• Bengals vs Packers
• Vikings vs Broncos
• Raiders vs Niners
• Seahawks vs Bills
• Chargers vs Cardinals
• Falcons vs Jaguars

Top it all off with a new Thanksgiving Day rivalry, which will undoubtedly supersede all Thanksgiving Day games from many years past. 

Patriots vs Cowboys. Because lets face it, the Cowboys and Lions on Thanksgiving ran its course, I do not know many people who would watch that game when better games are on.

Should the NFL incorporate this into the 18-game schedule, then it is proof that they will continue to have a pulse on the community for many years to come.  The rest of us, it will supplement all the High School and College football games we have been accustomed to watching on Thanksgiving for a long time.

The 25 Best SportsCenter Commercials of All Time: Nos. 10-1

Finally, the moment you’ve all been waiting for! The best 10 Sportscenter commercials. I’ve already counted down from 25 to 11. If you missed it, you can view it here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/157329-25-greatest-sportscenter-commercials-no-25-through-11

Once again, I will post one video per slide, as well as posting them all at the end, in case you’d rather watch them after finishing the slideshow.
Enjoy!

What If…Ben Roethlisberger Hadn’t Survived His Motorcycle Accident?

This is a very sore subject for Steelers fans to discuss.

We all remember the news that arrived around 11:00 am in June of 2006. This is a new series I am starting that will analyze what coulda woulda shoulda happened.

If Ben Roethlisberger had had complications, or worse, the organization would be different—completely different.

Roethlisberger was not wearing his helmet and the accident left him in pain and caused many facial wounds. Ben could have died that day. If he hadn’t been able to play another snap in the NFL, we may not be Sixburgh fans.

The first thing that would have happened is the organization would have been devastated. There would have been memorials, probably a patch on their jerseys, and emotions that the players would not have been able to control.

The first change that would have happened is that Charlie Batch would’ve become the starting quarterback. Batch has shown that he can play football, but is injury-prone. The Steelers probably would have gone 8-8, but have had two or three quarterbacks start.

Cowher would still leave because his motive had no reason to change.

In the draft, instead of selecting Lawrence Timmons, we probably would have selected Brady Quinn 15th overall. The 2007 season would not have been the same because Tomlin would not have wanted to throw Quinn immediately, letting Batch start again. Quinn would have seen some playing time, but not much.

The team would have finish ed 9-7, missing the playoffs for the second consecutive year.

2008 would have been Quinn’s first year, and it would not have been a good one. He would have shown he had yet to develop, starting all 16 games, with a record of 5-11. He would probably have earned more interceptions than touchdowns.

If you think back, we are fortunate to have Ben. Without him, the Steelers would not have done as well as they have, and would not have won the Super Bowl.

Who Will the Redskins Draft?

If this photo inspires confidence, you may be Dan Snyder. 

Vinny Cerrato, pictured above, is our alleged de facto general manager.  Who do you think he will draft with the 13th selection in the 2009 draft?

Looking for a few scenarios?  Try these for size:

1. Trade the pick.

2. Find a way to draft/acquire Sanchez (USC QB).

3. Have a hankerin’ for Brian Orakpo (DE, Texas)? Probably need to move up to get him.

4. Aaron Maybin, from the DC metro area, could be available at 13th.  He could be a rush end or LB.

5. Need a potential star offensive tackle? One could be had at 13th.  How about Andre Smith, the huge tackle from Alabama.

Of course there are many other possibilities.  These are just a few.  What do you think will happen?

 

« Previous Page — Next Page »

NFL Sport Channel Latest

• Just How Far Would You Go?
• Sorry Rex, But It Isn’t Happening
• Super Bowl Predictions: Five Stat-Free Reasons Why the Eagles Will Reach The Super Bowl
• Seahawks Attempt to Turn Corner With Heavy Pursuit of Pete Carroll
• Bill Cowher Unlikely to Coach in 2010