Unappreciated: The Top 10 Most Underrated NFL First Round Picks

If you are a NFL fan or just a sports fan in general, you know what is just around the corner, the NFL Draft. This event is one of the most highly anticipated events of the entire year. The Draft can very easily make or break a franchise. The draftees that get the most exposure to the media are the first round picks. They are the ones that land the most lucrative contracts, who haven’t even played a NFL down before. In addition, they carry the ridiculous franchise, media, and fan expectations to make an instant splash on the franchise. If they fail, they are labeled the infamous “b word”, a bust. Plus, they will always have to hear their name on heard or labeled on the “largest bust of all-time” list usually composed of fans and media who’ve never played a meaningful down before. However, there seem to be first round picks that are simply forgotten, just because they did not play for a good team, injuries, or were just plainly overshadowed by more media friendly player. This slide show lists the top 10 underrated picks of all time in descending order. Please leave your comments, to add suggestions or opinions to this slide show if you would like.

Washington Redskin Receivers Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas Have Much to Prove

Entering last year’s draft, the Redskins were in desperate need of a solid No. 2 receiver.

So what did they do?

They drafted not one, but two wide receivers (and a tight end). 

Which Teams Draft Best in the First Round?

Introduction   

 

Recently, I saw an article on the web in which the author assigned grades to each NFL team for its drafting prowess. The article was effective for what the author was trying to do (even if he did give my favorite team a D). 

 

He used objective measures such as number of starters and number of Pro Bowl players that came out of each team’s total draft. However, the earliest draft the analysis was based on was 2003, which meant that some of the players on whom he based his grades had been in the league for only a year or two.

 

One or two years after the draft is too early to fairly grade most NFL draft picks. Many players, especially quarterbacks and wide receivers need a few years to make the adjustment from college to the pros. Others start off looking great only to fall flat due to injury, character flaws, or merely being one trick ponies.

 

It requires a good five years to fairly grade all draft picks. Therefore, my study is based on the 1995 through 2004 drafts, which allows even the youngest players a minimum of five seasons in the league.

 

To keep the data within manageable limits, I concentrated on the first round of each draft, since that is where the lion’s share of the money goes.  Few teams that do not draft well in the first round can remain successful for long.  Between blowing salary cap bucks on busts and losing out on players that can help the team in the long run, the team that fails in the first round of the draft most commonly fail on the field.

 

Grading System

 

I have graded all first round draft picks between 1995 and 2004 on a five-point scale as follows:

 

1)      Bust – the epitome of a wasted pick

2)      Disappointment – not a total bust, but not worth the pick

3)      Starter – an average first round draft pick

4)      Pro Bowler – made the Pro Bowl at least once and had a generally good career

5)      Canton Class – a consistently great player for many years

 

 

The grades for each first round draft pick were based on position-specific statistics, percentage of possible starts, and number of Pro Bowls to which the player was voted.  The stats were compared with all other first round picks at the same position, which allowed for a reasonably objective grading system.

 

Team Grades

 

Every team in the NFL is listed below with the average first round draft grade in parentheses and best and worst first round picks.

 

Baltimore Ravens (4.00) Best pick Ray Lewis; worst pick Kyle Boller

 

Indianapolis Colts (3.78) Best pick Peyton Manning; worst pick Rob Morris

 

New York Jets (3.36) Best pick Keyshawn Johnson; worst pick Jonathan Becht

 

Washington Redskins (3.33) Best pick Chris Samuels; worst pick Andre Johnson

 

Tennessee/Houston Oilers/Titans (3.13) Best pick Eddie George; worst pick Kenny Holmes

 

Buffalo Bills (3.10) Best pick Ruben Brown; worst pick Erik Flowers

 

Pittsburgh Steelers (3.10) Best pick Alan Faneca; worst pick Jamain Stephens

 

Denver Broncos (3.00) Best pick Tevor Price; worst pick Marcus Nash

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.00) Best pick Derrick Brooks; worst pick Reidel Anthony

 

Dallas Cowboys (3.00) Best pick Roy Williams; worst pick David LaFleur

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3.00) Best pick Donovan McNabb; worst pick Jon Harris

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (3.00) Best pick Tony Boselli; worst pick R. Jay Soward

 

St. Louis Rams (3.00) Best pick Torry Holt; worst pick Lawrence Phillips

 

Seattle Seahawks (2.92) Best pick Walter Jones; worst pick Marcus Tubbs

 

Minnesota Vikings (2.92) Best pick Randy Moss; worst pick Demitrius Underwood

 

Oakland Raiders (2.90) Best pick Charles Woodson; worst pick Matt Stinchcomb

 

New Orleans Saints (2.90) Best pick Will Smith; worst pick Jonathan Sullivan

 

Atlanta Falcons (2.88) Best pick Patrick Kerney; worst pick Michael Booker

 

Houston Texans (2.75) Best pick Andre Johnson; worst pick David Carr

 

New England Patriots (2.73) Best pick Ty Law; worst pick Chris Canty

 

New York Giants (2.67) Best pick Jeremy Shockey; worst pick William Joseph

 

Arizona Cardinals (2.64) Best pick Simeon Rice; worst pick Wendell Bryant

 

Kansas City Chiefs (2.63) Best pick Tony Gonzalez; worst pick Sylvester Morris

 

San Diego Chargers (2.60) Best pick LaDainian Tomlinson; worst pick Ryan Leaf

 

Cincinnati Bengals (2.55) Best pick Carson Palmer; worst pick Akili Smith

 

Carolina Panthers (2.55) Best pick Julius Peppers; worst pick Rae Carruth

 

Chicago Bears (2.40) Best pick Brian Urlacher; worst pick Michael Haynes

 

Detroit Lions (2.40) Best pick Jeff Hartings; worst pick Charles Rodgers

 

San Francisco 49ers (2.30) Best pick Julian Peterson; worst pick Reggie McGrew

 

Green Bay Packers (2.30) Best pick Nick Barnett; worst pick Jamal Reynolds

 

Cleveland Browns (2.29) Best pick Gerard Warren; worst pick Craig Powell

 

Miami Dolphins (1.67) Best pick Daryl Gardner; worst pick Yatil Green

The Detroit Lions Should Draft Jason Smith: Here’s Two Reasons Why

With less than a week to go before the draft, Detroit Lions fans are anxious about who they will select. Many want quarterback Matthew Stafford. Others are smitten with linebacker Aaron Curry. I certainly like both of those guys, but I would go a different route. My choice is Baylor offensive lineman Jason Smith.

Here are my two reasons: Joe Thomas and Jake Long.

In the last two years, those guys started from day one as rookies and both made the Pro Bowl. More importantly, their teams went from dormant to winners. Clevleland finished 10-6 during Thomas’s rookie year, and barely missed the playoffs. Miami went from one win to division champs.

Do you see a correlation? I do.

Now yes, there were other factors in both of these places, but the tackles were huge factors.

Looking historically at offensive lineman taken within the first five picks, there has been a lot of success stories. Tony Boseli and Orlando Pace were high draft picks. Robert Gallery is really the only example I can immediately think of as being a bust.

So why the success at this position while so many quarterbacks been busts? The reason is quite simple.

When evaluating an offensive lineman, you can use game film and combine workouts to determine one or two things. Either he can block, or he can’t. If he is rated as the top lineman in the draft, he obviously can block.

Taking a quarterback is a much bigger risk. There are so many factors that can’t be measured by game film: work ethic, leadership, ability to understand an NFL playbook inside and out, pocket presence, mental toughness, the ability to read NFL defenses.

To be fair, these things take time to learn, and many quarterbacks are forced in before they are ready. That ends up killing their career. I am afraid of that happening if Stafford is selected. All these fans that are on the Stafford bandwagon were probably the same ones on the Joey Harrington bandwagon. He was forced in way too early and was a bust.

Aaron Curry could be a good choice, as taking a linebacker is less of a risk. However, a linebacker is like the quarterback on the defense, in that they have to read offenses.  So there are intangibles here also, but to a lesser degree. Curry would be less of a risk than Stafford.

However, when a team goes 0-16 that means they have to start from scratch. You have to lay the foundation before you build the house. That is why my vote is for Jason Smith.

Looking Back: New York Jets 2006 NFL Draft Ranking

It is well-known that draft classes can only truly be graded once the class is in their third year or later.

That means that the 2006 NFL Draft class can finally now be examined, and I will grade my favorite team, the New York Jets.

The Jets were coming off a 4-12 season in 2005 and had two first round draft picks this year.  It was the first year for Mangini in the war room and a good draft could really give him support from the fans.

I will go round by round looking at every pick they made, talk a little bit about the player, and then grade them. They will be graded on play so far, and their potential grade. Their potential grade is a guess on how they could end up as a player for the rest of their career.

Round one

Fourth overall pick: D’Brickashaw Ferguson, OT, Virginia

He has received a lot of hate, which is not deserved. Did he have a rocky start? Sure, but he was a rookie playing in the second-hardest position to play in the NFL. Very few rookies can start in game one and have a great season (See: Clady, Ryan).

You also have to understand for that his first two years, he had no help on that line besides the other first round pick this year, Nick Mangold.

To put it differently, ‘Brick only allowed four sacks this past season. That ranked 14th among left tackles, so right now he is better than half of the league’s starting tackles. That number also came with Brett Favre taking snaps, who didn’t move much at all. If he had a young QB behind him, like he will this year, that number should drop.

Expect to see a 1-2.5 sack allowance number this year.
GRADE: B+
POTENTIAL GRADE: A-

29th overall pick: Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State

The anchor of this offensive line, Nick Mangold has played like a top-ten pick.

He allowed two sacks this season, a phenomenal number. Considering he is playing next to Alan Fanaca (seven sacks allowed) and Brandon Moore (two sacks allowed), both run-blocking specialists who lack in pass blocking, he has done great.

Mangold was also given credit by Richard Seymour, who said he is the toughest center in the league to play against. He also is practicing against Kris Jenkins everyday, which will only make him better. Both of these young talents will be on the Jets line for the next ten years.
GRADE: A
POTENTIAL GRADE: A+

 

Round two

49th overall pick: Kellen Clemens, QB, Oregon

The jury is still out on Kellen Clemens.

He was given some time to play in 2007, and it was iffy. But we have to look at the facts for 2007. The offensive line was absolutely terrible, and offered little to no pass protection. I’m sure all Jets fans remember how bad that line was.

He almost led the Jets to victory in week two over the Baltimore Ravens, except a certain someone named Justin McCariens didn’t know how to hang onto the ball.

He played great ball-control offense in both the Washington game and Pittsburgh game, which produced a win against Pittsburgh game and should have against Washington.

He has a great arm, great poise, and has shown leadership qualities this off season. He would be a perfect quarterback for Rex Ryan, and I think he should be given a chance.
GRADE: C
POTENTIAL GRADE: A-

 

Round three

76th overall: Anthony Schlegel, LB, Ohio State

Erm, what?

This was a terrible pick for a so far good draft. The front office snagged the future LT and C, a possible franchise quarterback, and then take…Schlegel?

Undersized, and reached for, Schlegel played for the Air Force Academy for his first two years of college, then transferred to OSU, where he was decent but never excellent.

Predicted as a fourth, fringe fifth round player, the Jets reached for him here, and boy was that a mistake. Released only a year after, he was signed by the Bengals and then released again.
GRADE: F
POTENTIAL GRADE: F

97th overall pick: Eric Smith, S, Michigan State

The first compensatory selection of the 2006 NFL Draft, Eric Smith has had an ok career with the Jets so far.

His good measurables at the combine boosted him from a mid-fourth round choice to the third, where the Jets took him. Although he has given up plenty of plays deep, he is a good tackler, but nothing more then a backup.

He will most likely see a large decrease in playing time with the signing of Jim Leonhard, and possibly even cut from the team.
GRADE: D
POTENTIAL GRADE: C-

Round Four

103rd overall pick: Brad Smith, WR/QB, Missouri

The NCAA record-holder for rushing yards for a QB (before Pat White broke it this season), Brad Smith was drafted to play wide receiver for the Jets.

A true Mangini guy, he was a great gimmick for trick plays. Reverses, lining up as the quarterback when the ‘WildCat’ formation came to life this past season, wide receiver passes, you name it.

Not known to be the strongest or fastest, he used his tools and used them well, to be a decent receiver for the Jets these past couple of years.
GRADE: C-
POTENTIAL GRADE: C

117th overall pick: Leon Washington, RB, Florida State

Ahh, the fan favorite of Jets fans for the past couple of years. Lightning in a bottle, ‘Neon’ Leon, this man has the nicknames. He deserves them too, for his electric play.

We got this pick when Herman Edwards went to coach the Chiefs, and we can only thank them. He became well-known after Justin Miller tore his ACL and Leon started returning kicks, and then started bringing them to the house.

Fans have been crying for him to get the ball more and it looks like this year it will happen.  He is a true threat to score a touchdown every time he touches the ball, and he was one of the best picks in this draft, for any team.

Herm going to the Chiefs might have been the best thing he did for the Jets.
GRADE: A-
POTENTIAL GRADE: A+

 

Round Five

150th overall pick: Jason Pociask, TE, Wisconsin

A pick for tight end depth, Pociask was released the next year. He currently plays for the Buccaneers, although I don’t think he has done anything except serve as a backup. He has the potential to be a good blocking tight end, although I don’t think he wants to be.
GRADE: F
POTENTIAL GRADE: D-

Round Six

189th overall pick: Drew Coleman, CB, TCU

He is still currently playing on the team and has been a dime back for us since the Jets drafted him. He is known to give cushion to receivers, which hurts us. He will never be higher than a nickleback, although he has seen some snaps as a safety.
GRADE: D+
POTENTIAL GRADE: C-

 

Round Seven

220th overall pick: Titus Adams, DT, Nebraska

Drafted just to use the draft choice, Adams was never expected to make an impact. He was waived in September of 2006 and resigned to the practice squad. Adams has been a journeyman ever since.
GRADE: F
POTENTIAL GRADE: F

Overall, this was a decent draft for the Jets. They scored two members of our offensive line who should be with the team their whole careers in D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold.

They drafted a potential franchise quarterback in the second round, Kellen Clemens, who should see full-time action this year. The Jets got the steal of the draft in Leon Washington in the fourth round, and all Jet fans hope he will be in Green and White for the rest of his career.

The only round that if they could go back in time and fix would be the third round, and they wouldn’t of taken Schlegel. Looking at the linebackers taken in the third round after him, Clint Ingram or Freddy Kiaho would have been a better choice there. Despite these picks, this draft was a major step in the right direction to make the Jets a legitimate franchise.

Ravens: Regardless of Potential Trade, Ravens Are A Better Team

Dallas Cowboys Possible Undrafted Free Agent Rookies—Offense

Immediately after the draft, several people rush to compile lists of undrafted free agent rookies for the Boys to pursue. I figured with all the analyzing I have been doing lately, this might be a good time to get a head start on that list.

Each year, there are players everybody expects to be drafted who are not. When the draft is over, I’ll add a number of them to my watch list. Conversely, some of the players I mention here might wind up drafted by a team; though at this point, I consider it unlikely. I’ll be identifying players who might be drafted by putting them in bold fonts.

In each position, players are rated according to my draft grades for each, the highest rated players listed first.

QUARTERBACK:

David Johnson, Tulsa: 6’2″, 220 lbs, 4.9-second 40-yard dash

Drew Willy, Buffalo: 6’3″, 216 lbs, 4.85-second 40-yard dash

Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State: 6’4″, 240 lbs, 5.06-second 40-yard dash

Greg Micheli, Mount Union: 6’1″, 210 lbs, 4.95-second 40-yard dash

Keith Null, West Texas A&M… 6’3″, 225 lbs, 4.95-second 40-yard dash

Billy Malone, Abilene Christian: 6’2″, 235 lbs, 5.05 second 40-yard dash

IMO, there’s an usually high number of intriguing QBs who might not be drafted this year.

RUNNING BACK:

Chris Ogbonnaya, Texas: 6’0″, 220 lbs, 4.5-second 40-yard dash especially effective as a receiver out of the backfield

Bernard Scott, Abilene Christian: 5’10”, 200 lbs, 4.45 second 40-yard dash

Jamall Lee, Bishop’s: 6’1″, 220 lbs, 4.4-second 40-yard dash perhaps the best RB prospect to ever come out of Canada, rare size/speed ratio

Tyler Roehl, North Dakota State: 5’10”, 235 lbs, 4.55 second 40-yard dash
could also be a prospect at FB, but I think he has skills as a power ballcarrier

Stan Zwinggi, Texas State: 5’10”, 186 lbs, 4.35-second 40-yard dash
raw speed, he might get a look at WR if he can’t cut it at RB

The Boys don’t have much of a need at RB, but one of these players might interest them after the draft.

FULLBACK:

Marquez Branson, Central Arkansas: 6’2″, 245 lbs, 4.55-second 40-yard dash
unusual speed for a fullback

Frank Summers, UNLV: 5’9″, 240 lbs, 4.65-second 40-yard dash
squat, compact, powerful…

David Johnson, Arkansas State: 6’2″, 260 lbs, 4.7-second 40-yard dash
has the size I like in a FB

Jason Cook, Mississippi: 5’11”, 245 lbs, 4.7-second 40-yard dash

Zeek Zacharie, Lousiana-Monroe: 6’2″, 235 lbs, 4.65 second 40-yard dash, he might eventually wind up moving to H-back

Jake O’Connell, Miami-Ohio: 6’3″, 250 lbs, 4.65-second 40-yard dash, another possible H-back conversion??

If one of the three players in blue slides out of the draft, I sure hope the Boys show an interest.

TIGHT END:

Carson Butler, Michigan: 6’5″, 250 lbs, 4.7-second 40-yard dash, moved to DE as a senior, which suggests he’s a physical player…

John Nalbone, Monmouth:. 6’4″, 250 lbs, 4.65-second 40-yard dash

I’m not real impressed with the TEs this year.

WIDE RECEIVER:

Jamarko Simmons, Western Michigan: 6’2″, 230 lbs, 4.5-second 40-yard dash,
is he a king-sized receiver, or a super-swift TE??

Marko Mitchell, Nevada: 6’4″, 216 lbs, 4.4-second 40-yard dash, a favorite of mine…

Dudley Guice, Northwestern State (La.): 6’3″, 210 lbs, 4.4-second 40-yard dash,
I’m not shocked to learn he’s rising on a lot of draft boards, not with those computer numbers.

Jason Chery, Louisiana-Lafayette: 5’11”, 190 lbs, 4.45-second 40-yard dash, coveted more for is abilities as a kick returner than his skills as a receiver

Brennan Marion, Tulsa:. 6’0″, 186 lbs, 4.5-second 40-yard dash, might not be a burner, but he can apparently stretch the field, as evidenced by his amazing 27.6 yards per reception average the last two seasons

Charly Martin, West Texas A&M: 6’1″, 206 lbs, 4.5-second 40-yard dash, pretty much dominant at a low level of competition

Julian Edelman, Kent State: 5’11”, 195 lbs, 4.5-second 40-yard dash, a conversion project from QB, seems to be similar to Patrick Crayton coming out of college

There are a few nice WRs still likely to be looking for work when the 09 draft concludes.

CENTER:

Robby Felix, UTEP: 6’3″, 305 lbs, 5.2-second 40-yard dash, a little smaller than I generally like my offensive linemen, but he compensates by being hardnosed and scores major points with me for being a Miner.

David Washington, Oklahoma State: 6’3″, 310 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, can play guard too

Jonathan St. Pierre, Illinois State: 6’3″, 310 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, another who can play guard

Jonathan Bedore, Kansas State: 6’3″, 310 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, and a third center who can swing to guard in a pinch

Brandon Johnson, Iowa State: 6’3″, 320 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, the biggest of my sleeper center prospects

As far as I’m concerned, there aren’t a lot of centers out there who would be worth a look after the draft, but this bunch isn’t too shabby

OFFENSIVE GUARD:

Matt Slauson, Nebraska: 6’5″, 316 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, might be able to play tackle as well

Travis Bright, BYU: 6’4″, 320 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash

Juan Garcia, Washington: 6’2″, 306 pounds, 5.3 second 40-yard dash, had his last two seasons ruined by injury, but if he’s past that injury bug, he might be a steal, can play center too

Cedric Dockery, Texas: 6’3″, 316 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, I can’t figure out why Dockery isn’t higher rated, to this Horns fan he looks as good as his brother Derrick did coming out of college, I’d definitely be targeting Dockery if he goes undrafted

Tim Henderson, Northwestern State (La): 6’3″, 325 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, love his size, worry about his level of competition…

Calvin Dority, North Carolina: 6’3″, 310 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, another guard who can play some center

Ben Person, Ohio State: 6’3″, 325 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, I wonder why he wasn’t more dominant in college…

Chris Jamison, Troy: 6’2″, 316 lbs, 4.95-second 40-yard dash, any time you’re over 315 lbs and can run the 40 in under 5 seconds, you’re gonna wind up on my draft list

Terrell Nemons, Tulsa: 6’2″, 330 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, a DT in college, he’s too slow to stay on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL, but might make a nice guard

Matt Eichelberger, Washington State: 6’4″, 316 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, another DT conversion project…

Sam McNaulty, Clark (Atlanta): 6’4″, 320 lbs, 5.1 second 40-yard dash, from a very small school, he can really motor for such a big guy

Chet Hartley, Kansas: 6’4″, 316 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash

Jovan Potter, Central State (Okla.): 6’1″, 316 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, I worry about how short he is

Curtis Crouch, North Carolina State: 6’5″, 325 lbs, 5.05-second 40-yard dash, terrific computer numbers, but was a huge disappointment for the Wolfpack, should be better than he was

Brent Todd, Memphis: 6’3″, 320 lbs, 4.95 second 40-yard dash

That’s a pretty big group of guard types who should still be on the board after the draft.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE:

Jose Valdez, Arkansas: 6’5″, 316 lbs, 5.15-second 40-yard dash, one of my pet cats

Ryan Delrosal, Dixie State: 6’5″, 316 lbs, 4.95-second 40-yard dash, terrific workouts the last few weeks might have boosted his stock to the point where he’ll be drafted

Sean Sester, Purdue: 6’8″, 325 lbs, 5.3-second 40-yard dash, tall, and from a passing offense, his career has been derailed by a series of injuries…

Jeremy Ashcraft, Arkansas Tech: 6-7, 316 lbs, 5.25-second 40-yard dash, hope Jerry has his Hillbilly Mafia working overtime, keeping him up to date on all the small college prospects from the great state of Arkansas

Bob Swift, Northern Iowa: 6’7″, 316 lbs, 5.2-second 40-yard dash, obviously, I like my tackles tall

Kyle Howard, Wyoming: 6’6″, 316 lbs, 5.2-second 40-yard dash, can play some guard, too

All in all, I’m not impressed with the quality of the tackles likely to still be on the board at the end of the draft, but these few caught my attention.

Next up, the likely defensive undrafted rookie free agents.

(Written by SilverBear, SilverBear is a CP Contributing Writer and Draft Guru. If you’d like to read more of SilverBear join us at cowboyspride.net )

Dallas Cowboys’ Offensive Mindset for the Draft

As a long suffering fan, please allow me to show you what and how I see the offense headed…

I do not see Miles Austin as being a top-notch receiver. I feel that he is much more a contributor that selectively finds his places to shine. He, by himself, won’t highlight this offense.

To totally rely upon both Jason Witten and Roy Williams, I just don’t see the Cowboys being able to get them open enough just to dominate. They are good receivers, but I just don’t see enough dynamics to yield a top shelf offense. Teams will double up on them, but in the box so as to be also able to defense the Dallas run….as teams did last season with TO and Witten there.

Dallas has a very productive quarterback, so Tony Romo’s throwing will dominate much of each and every game. He will be given slightly over half of the plays within which to succeed. Just slightly below half, will be in the hands of the three running backs for the Cowboys.

This will fall back upon just how strong the assembled offensive line is. The line still should be coming into full function in year three of this specific group. They should be able to push their full potential this year.

Many have asked how Dallas would overcome not having a TO type receiver to dominate the landscape. Well, with both Bennett and Witten, the Cowboys are finally, after three years following his departure, able to run a pretty fair double tight end set that Bill Parcells envisioned.

It could well be the foundation of a power running game, and a spring board for more. Having Roy Williams, Miles Austin, Bennett and Witten all on the field does increase a strong compliment for a run game.

Play action now becomes a game break and changer, as both Roy W and Austin can break the deep pattern off with added pressure of a run lingering.

Also, their speed and size works well against current defensive back size…so quick responding slants, seams, and outs will be productive. This also adds to the use of more screens and backs into open areas to create mismatches and big, quick moving gainers as well. This will be a big part of the staple of the offense that presents right now.

Just by adding a three receiver set, odds improve for medium range completions. Put Roy W, Austin, and Crayton on the field all at once, and there better be some intense pass rushing…or one of them will push issues and get open for a big gainer.

Healthy, they are still a good group. Injure one, and we don’t know what we have, which was your quandary.

Add one more deep speedster, via the draft…and here, Jerry targeting such a player as Harvin or Haywood-Bey could be enough for this entire section of receivers to turn the corner. Flooding the secondary with the likes of Roy W, Austin, Harvin, Crayton, Felix Jones, and Witten would drive quite a few present defensive coordinators pretty grouchy.

If this isn’t the direction by Jerry, then my guess is the team either attempts to shore up the future of the defense in this draft…or looks to long termed solutions to bolster the offensive line.

Since Dallas has shunned the high visibility types of player changes, I don’t look for a major price being laid out, and a continual and incremental approach via the draft. Within-round changes being the changes that I look to occur…which means look around where picks are located until at least Day Two.

Jerry is still looking for more gunpowder, and has not been bit by that tendency up until now…move down some, and acquire stronger depth and special team’s contributors. Improvements there, makes the team harder to beat as well.

As to the break down of current issues at receiver….

1. It’s not getting any better until a player or two are added…whether via the draft, free agency, or from both resources.

2. There are many more indicators of the performances of Austin than a failed period during the lingering of injury. First, we have indicators by the organization that it is putting faith in the receiver. He was replacing Patrick Crayton as the No. 2 receiver prior to his being injured. That is team confidence being shown.

They further endorsed him with the type of contract that he was offered by the organization. Also, the Jets didn’t just up and offer him a visit and attempt to work out the details that would include a second round draft pick, if Austin did not pass their player evaluation process as well.

All told, that is some pretty high level endorsements in the NFL. Not only this, but he has performed well in training camps and exhibition games for the past two seasons.

That we as fans can throw up a whole series of projections of a negative vein, doesn’t change his demonstrated ability and viable place on the current Dallas roster. It is now his turn to be a contributor on this team.

That he was injured this past season, was unfortunate, but doesn’t change how he can still contribute.

3. The Cowboys functioned pretty well, having only Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton. Despite a level of success, does someone now rush and claim that Roy Williams now isn’t on par with a career ending Terry Glenn? Or that Roy Williams with an upgrade to Patrick Crayton is not at least better?

4. The price of doing business in the NFL can not suddenly be ignored. It is always better to gain in the draft and pay less in free agency. Always has been and unless the cap is abolished…always will be.

5. First, the team will ‘attempt’ to achieve an upgrade in the draft, and gain a long-termed solution at the position. If they are not successful, then a veteran will probably be given consideration. The fact remains, that a team-enhancing receiver will be available at the top parts of round two.

The price to move up and acquire such a roster enhancing person does not break the bank, on either picks or cap. That will be the team’s effort….first.

Myself, I’d think that if JERRY really wanted to take a changed direction with him out of this draft…that he would mortgage a little of the 2010 draft and go get him a real showpiece at receiver, while the iron was hot. I would retain most of the rest of this year’s picks, and target very durable and strong roster upgrades.

This would end up being a very ferocious camp and upon up the team completely, to directional changes that includes a dominant aggressive team mood…yea, WITH Wade Phillips at the helm. Give Jason Garrett some real motivational juices at creating under that premise, and I think that he will own up to the demands of being creative. He is still a pretty sharp developer at the present.

Time will tell if they will be given the opportunity…

(CC Boy is aCowboyspride.net contributor and author. If you would like to read more of CC…drop by and say hi.)

What if They’re All Wrong? What if Matt Stafford Is Not No. 1?

With the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft the Detroit Lions select Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, University of Georgia.

Or will they?

Nearly every mock draft you see today has Matthew Stafford the consensus No. 1 pick. Everyone seems to agree. Everyone except the team with the No. 1 pick.

As recently as Thursday rookie head coach Jim Schwartz insisted that the Lions had not settled on a number one pick. “No, not 100 percent. There’s still discussions to be had,” Schwartz said.

Everyone knows the Lions need lots of help including quarterback. Adding fuel to the fire is the apparent attempt to get Matt Cassel and the fact that the current depth chart is Daunte Culpepper, Drew Stanton and Drew Henson (not necessarily in that order).

However, teams always say you build from your lines. Schwartz knows this first hand having come from Tenneseewho built both solid offensive and defensive fronts. And don’t forget about that whole Vince Young thing.

It still seems likely that the Lions will attempt to brand their franchise with the sexy quarterback and attempt to forget last year.

But if they don’t, if they decide they want to avoid the massive bust rate for first round quarterbacks and take tackle Jason Smith, all hell could break loose.

What happens then?

Do the Rams take Stafford? Does someone jump on the opportunity and trade up? What happens to Mark Sanchez?

This would leave several teams with very difficult decisions that could come to define the next 10 years of the NFL in the same way that Leaf vs Manning did in ’98.

Here are some of the teams that would be affected.

St. Louis Rams

The general thought right now is that the Rams will take Jason Smith number two. This would help fill the large hole left by the release of Orlando Pace and hopefully keep some stability to an offensive line that has seen anything but consistency over the last several years.

The Rams have publicly stated that they will listen to offers for the No. 2 pick and have expressed some interest in Mark Sanchez and Aaron Curry.

With the age and inconsistency of Marc Bulger over the past two seasons (not to mention his injuries) it would be hard for rookie coach Steve Spagnolo to pass up Stafford if no one comes calling for a trade.

If Spags screws up this pick, don’t expect him to last long with the Rams or get another head coaching job.

Seattle Seahawks

Rumors are the Seahawks are torn between Sanchez and Virginia OT Eugene Monroe. They could try and move up to No. 2 to get Stafford, could trade down to get Alabama OT Andre Smith, or could stay and still take either Sanchez or Monroe.

One would think that they would be in talks with the Rams and depending on which direction the Rams planned to go the Seahawks would react.

Oakland Raiders

I never underestimate how crazy Al Davis is. He may be just senile enough to forget that he just drafted JaMarcus Russell and make a run at Stafford.

San Francisco 49ers

The ‘Niners made some failed attempts at signing a QB this off-season (Kurt Warner). They would love for Sanchez to fall to them at ten, but it doesn’t look like that will happen. If the draft board gets shaken up they are going to be affected. If it is not by getting a QB, it could be a projected top five player falling into their lap.

Denver Broncos

As much as I like Chris Simms and think that if gets a shot he can be a very good QB, the Broncos would jump at the chance to replace Cutler, especially with Stafford whose style has been compared to Cutler’s a lot recently.

Don’t forget their number of picks, especially the extra first rounder from the Bears, helps them tremendously in moving up without sacrificing the rest of their draft.

Washington Redskins

The ‘Skins have appeared to all but give up on Jason Campbell. There are rumors of their interest in Sanchez. They could try and move up to get him or Stafford. Depending on how the rest of the board shapes up they could be the landing spot for Sanchez at 13, a la Brady Quinn.

New York Jets

The Jets still need to replace Favreand could jump at a chance for either QB (Stafford’s arm strength would be nice in Giants Stadium) especially if they could get a bargain. If Sanchez falls past the Seahawks at four, don’t be surprise to see the Jets try and move up to eight or nine.

I guess this could happen anyway, but Sanchez falling seems more likely if Stafford isn’t No. 1.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Unlikely they’d make a move, especially after signing Byron Leftwich but they could at least be a factor in driving up the price of a trade up.

 

Another consideration for the Lions in determining their No. 1 pick is the 20thoverall pick they got from the Cowboys in the Roy Williams deal. Most people think they’ll take an offensive lineman here but they if they take Smith number one they could draft Josh Freeman here.

That way they’d still have their quarterback but with less financial obligation and less pressure to perform.

NFL Coaching Carousel: AFC North

Every off-season, fantasy owners, and football fans in general, tune in to find out which free agents are heading where.

Signings like T.O. heading to the Buffalo Bills and TJ Houshmandzadeh’s journey to the Northwest, where he’ll join the Seattle Seahawks, are analyzed and scrutinized by everyone from ESPN to the guy sitting in the cubicle next to you as everyone attempts to figure out how these new additions will fit in in their new systems.

Strangely enough though, the coaching changes that occur each and every off-season garner much less attention despite these holding much more significance.

After all, the coaches are the ones devising the systems that guys like T.O. and Housh will be playing in. But, don’t worry, the Bruno Boys, as usual, have you covered as we take a look at the Coaching Carousel of the NFL, breaking down all the important coaching changes division by division. This stop, the AFC North.

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Baltimore Ravens’ Defensive Coordinator

Out: Rex Ryan
In: Greg Mattison

Spending 10 seasons helping to coach a defense that never ranked lower than sixth in the league during that time span is an excellent way to catch the attention of teams looking for a new head coach, and that’s exactly what Rex Ryan did, parlaying his stay with the Baltimore Ravens into a head coaching gig with the New York Jets.

Ryan’s departure led to the promotion of Greg Mattison, the team’s linebacker coach in 2008, to the defensive coordinator position.

While Mattison may not have the most NFL experience as his year with the Ravens is all the time he’s spent in the NFL, fantasy owners need not be worried that Mattison won’t be able to keep the Ravens among the league’s best defenses.

Well versed in the fast and furious defensive strategy the Ravens like to employ, a defensive strategy that Mattison utilized during his time as the University of Florida’s co-defensive coordinator from 2005 to 2007, Mattison should be able to ensure that the Ravens’ 10-year streak of finishing in the top six among NFL defenses continues and runs to 11 following 2009.

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Cleveland Browns’ Head Coach

Out: Romeo Crennel
In: Eric Mangini

What do you do when you bring a Bill Belichick disciple to town in order to turn your franchise around, only to see the plan fail miserably? Easy, you try it again.

At least, that’s the strategy the Cleveland Browns are taking. After parting ways with Romeo Crennel, the Browns have brought Eric Mangini to town, hoping this Bill Belichick disciple can get the job done.

While one of the main obstacles Mangini will face when it comes to winning will be to turn around a defense that has not ranked higher than 26th in the league over any of the past three seasons, getting the Browns offense going, following their disappointing 2008 season in which they fell from the 8th best unit in 2007 to number 31 last season, is just as key.

However, don’t look for Mangini to put the emphasis on the passing game, even if wide receiver, Braylon Edwards, is still around come opening day. If Mangini’s reign as head coach of the New York Jets has shown us anything, it’s that the coach likes to maintain a balanced offensive attack set up by a power running game.

In fact, in both 2007 and 2008, the Jets running game finished at least a solid six spots higher in the league than the team’s passing game.

That’s good news for running back, Jamal Lewis’ fantasy value, who after a strong 1,304 yard and 11 total TD campaign in 2007, managed just 1,002 yards and 4 TDs in 2008. If the starting job remains Lewis’, the back could make for an excellent value pick late in 2009 fantasy drafts.

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