NFL: Liver’s Week 17 Picks

Hard to believe it’s Week 17 and after this weekend there will only be 11 NFL games remaining. After The Liver’s much deserved Roman style Christmas vacation, it’s back to work.

This should be the worst week of the season with no less than EIGHT of the 16 games this week meaning absolutely nothing. Of the remaining eight games, seven feature teams that need to win for either playoff positioning or to keep pretending that they have a shot at getting in. The opponents are either out of the playoffs completely or have already solidified their playoff spots and have nothing to gain by playing their starters.

The only game this week in which BOTH teams have something to gain….that would be the Filthy Eagles coming to The Death Star to face The Liver’s surprisingly playoff-bound Dallas Cowboys.

This week shouldn’t even count, gambling-wise, but it does. The lines are so skewed this week because even Vegas doesn’t know who’s going to play like they care or not.

Six days left until The Liver’s beloved Longhorns play Alabama for the National Championship. Not even going to try and pick that game because there’s no way I can emotionally detach myself to look at it in a black and white way. I will say that Texas MUST play their most complete game of the season in order to win against a nasty Alabama defense.

None of this take the first half off and then come out on fire in the second half crap that they’ve done way too many times this year. If Texas can win the turnover battle and keep Heisman winner Mark Ingram under 100 yards rushing, they can win. This is going to be where Texas fans see what Will Muschamp truly has in his bag. His defense has been underwhelming at times this season and he will need to have them play their best football in order to claim Texas’ second national championship in four years.

HOOK ‘EM HORNS

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 8-7-1

2009 record against the spread: 133-101-6 (.568)

Sunday, January 3

Indianapolis at Buffalo (-7)
Are the Colts a gutless franchise that will tank games to rest players when immortality is within their grasp? Is Charlie Sheen guaranteed a domestic incident involving a soon-to-be ex-wife once every 4-5 years? Kudos to the Colts fans who felt cheated and betrayed by Jim Caldwell’s soon-to-be infamous decision and put so much heat on the team that Colts President Bill Polian’s weekly radio show had to be cancelled. And let’s not even get into how many fantasy teams and gambling picks (LIKE THE LIVER’S ) that were destroyed by that decision. I’m now rooting for the Colts to get knocked out in the playoffs. Oh wait, the Chargers will take care of that in the AFC Championship game. If Buffalo can’t beat the Colts JV team this week, Ralph Wilson Jr. should refund everyone’s game ticket. Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans at Carolina (-3)
The once unbeatable Saints are having some problems right now and despite having home field wrapped up in the NFC might actually need a win here to have some confidence going into the playoffs as opposed to going in on a three-game losing streak. They won’t find it easy against a Carolina team that has looked strong the last few weeks with Matt Moore as QB. Just think where they’d be if John Fox had benched Jake Delhomme earlier and put Moore in. I’m guessing that the Saints will pull the starters in the second half. Pick: Carolina

Jacksonville at Cleveland (-1)
Are the Browns really playing for Eric Mangini right now? Could ANYONE have seen this playing out two months ago? Are the Browns really stupid enough to fire Mangini and in effect be paying TWO former coaches not to coach? Romeo Crennel is still collecting a fat paycheck. No wonder he looks so happy in those Coors Light commercials. Pick: Cleveland

Chicago at Detroit (+3)
Just to show you all how much The Liver hates Brett Favre and the Vikings; I was rooting for Jay Cutler last week like he was Troy Aikman. Pick: Chicago

New England at Houston (-7 ½)
Do the Patriots sit their starters here? Obviously Vegas thinks they will. Brady might play…FOR A QUARTER . Houston’s chances of getting into the playoffs are slim to none, but with the win they would finish at 9-7 which is the best season in the Texans long and storied history. Just think what kind of damage they would do in the playoffs if they could’ve won ONE big game this year. Pick: Houston

Pittsburgh at Miami (+3)
As a Texas Longhorns die-hard, no story was better in the NFL than Ricky Williams returning to form and rushing for over 1,000 yards for the first time in six years. On a depressing side note; Ricky Williams is referred to as the “wise old veteran” in the Miami locker room. Williams’ age is 32. The Liver’s age is 32. If he was playing here I’d take Miami but he’s doubtful for now so… Pick: Pittsburgh

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota (-9)
So NOW who’s the QB who can’t win in December? That would be your starting QB Brett Favre, Vikings fans. The whole Mr. Magoo/Favre controversy was something that ANYONE with a football IQ of 10 or higher could have seen coming. That doesn’t make it any less enjoyable. Can we all agree now that while AP is an incredible running back, he’s got a serious fumbling problem that could make Tiki Barber and Ahman Green wince? If the Giants can win and the Cowboys win then it’s conceivable that the Cowboys could be the No.2 seed in the NFC and get a bye. Pick: N.Y. Giants

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)
San Francisco should destroy the Rams here and with the No.1 pick in the draft at stake, why would the Rams even try to win? Stephen Jackson is questionable with a back injury that kept him out of last week’s game. I’d like to extend a personal thanks to the Rams coaching staff who didn’t reveal until right before kickoff that Jackson wouldn’t be playing against Arizona.

I’m sure none of the people like THE LIVER who picked the Rams to cover the 14 point spread would have changed their pick in a heartbeat had we known that Jackson wouldn’t be playing. It’s polite considerations like that that make me want to pull a Walter Sobchak and smash Steve Spagnuola’s car with a crow bar while yelling “This is what happens when you f**k a stranger in the ass.” Of course “we’re talking about unchecked aggression here Dude.”  Pick: San Francisco

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (+2)
If there was an award for Worst Coach of the Year do you think Raheem Morris would accept it? Pick: Atlanta

Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)
The Liver is never one to hide when he’s wrong so here it comes…I didn’t think the Cowboys would be in the position that they’re in. NO realistic Cowboys fan saw this two weeks ago coming off of losses to the Giants and the Chargers. But that win in New Orleans could go down as a defining moment in Cowboys history. A win here would erase the still nauseating 2008 season finale in Filthy Philly that resulted in the infamous 44-6 debacle.

Tony Romo might be playing the best football of his brief career and the defense looks like a pack of rabid dogs right now. However, that secondary CANNOT contain DeSean Jackson who scares me the way Mike Leach scares Adam James. Also, the offense still doesn’t look right. Shutting out the Redskins 17-0 was nice but 14 of those points came off of a Campbell interception early and Jason Witten’s 69-yard reception that put the Cowboys in the red zone.

They left at least 14 more points on the field and Shaun Suisham doesn’t make me feel much better then Nick Folk. Sooner or later, he’s going to be needed to hit a clutch kick and he just can’t do it. Having no faith in your kicker affects an offense in countless ways because it’s going to make offensive coordinator Jason Garrett have to take unnecessary gambles since he doesn’t know if his kicker can hit a 35 or 40 yarder.

This game is far more significant for the Cowboys because a win means the NFC East crown and at least the No.3 spot in the NFC which means one home playoff game possibly against the Eagles for the second time in a week. A win here becomes the biggest win for this franchise in the Wade Phillips era and would give them real confidence that they could beat Filthy again should they meet up in the wild card. A loss means most likely a trip to Minnesota but I’m not too afraid of them right now for some reason. Still, it would be extremely difficult for the Cowboys to win in the Metrodome where the Vikings have been dominant.

I think the Cowboys can win here but Filthy might be the best team in the NFC right now. The Death Star and the Dallas fans need to provide the home field advantage that Jerry and the city of Arlington shelled out $1.2 billion for. I rarely do this, but I’m going to take an emotional chance on this team that I haven’t done all season. Congratulations to Miles Austin on a well earned Pro Bowl selection. Here’s hoping he won’t be playing in that crap due to a more important game he’ll be playing in South Florida the following week. He deserves all the Playboy Bunnies he can get. Pick: Dallas

Green Bay at Arizona (-3)
A position game for Arizona here and Green Bay has nothing to gain by playing all out since they are locked into the No.5 seed and there is a strong possibility that these two teams will be meeting again later this week. Then again, Arizona would be wise to give Warner some rest considering that he’s one concussion away from retiring. Pick: Arizona

Kansas City at Denver (-13 ½)
Looks like Brandon Marshall is returning to his “Teammate of the Year” territory and at the perfect time. Josh McDaniels is benching him for the biggest game of the year because Marshall is supposedly pretending his right hamstring is more of an issue than acting like a sissy. Prosperity for Marshall is like prosperity for Lindsay Lohan; neither know what it is or what to do with it. Kudos to McDaniels for the brave move BUT you’re benching your best offensive weapon for a game that you have to win in order to avoid a 2-8 collapse after a 6-0 start and a second consecutive year of pissing away the AFC West title.  Pick: Kansas City

Baltimore at Oakland (+10 ½)
Baltimore has to win to get in but Oakland has made a habit this year of screwing up other teams’ seasons. I don’t think I’ve seen a team more undisciplined in my life when it comes to penalties than the Ravens, and remember I’m a Cowboys fan. Pick: Oakland

Washington at San Diego (-3 ½)
San Diego truly has nothing to play for here but even with their second stringers in there the Redskins have been on vacation for two weeks now so why can’t San Diego beat this dog? Bad time for Washington sports fans with Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittendon drawing down in the locker room Christmas Eve over a gambling debt. Please dear god let it have been a debt over NBA games. PLEASE .

As a David Stern hater, I couldn’t be happier. Let’s see him slide THIS under the carpet. Tim Donaghy might turn out to be the Jose Canseco of the NBA as far as blowing the whistle (no pun intended) on crooked refs and fixed games. Pick: San Diego

Tennessee at Seattle (+4)
The Titans may not be going to the playoffs but Chris Johnson is still running and the Seahawks went golfing weeks ago. Pick: Tennessee

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (-10)
The Jets and their fans should be thanking the sports gods that they got to play the gutless Colts last week and basically get handed a playoff spot. It’s still an insult to the other AFC teams (Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, and Dolphins) that were fighting for that spot. Nevertheless, The Sanchize can take his first real step in becoming a New York sports icon if he and the top ranked Jets defense can win here and get into the playoffs.

Then again, the Jets have made it a habit of stomping all over their fans’ hopes at the most crucial of times. And there’s the factor that if the Patriots lose and the Bengals win, then the Bengals would be the No.3 seed in the AFC. Can you imagine the fury of the NBC executives when they realized that they couldn’t flex Dallas/Filthy to the night game because of the Cowboys already having appeared the league max three times on Sunday night? You don’t think there was an anonymous NBC exec. that made a desperate call to Roger Goodell pleading “Can’t you just let it slide this one time?. No one will notice.” Pick: Cincinnati

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NFL: Liver’s Week 16 Picks

At least The Liver warned everyone last week that his picks could be toxic and they most certainly were.

Then again, find me someone who actually had a good week 15 as far as picking against the spread. Three pushes in one week was a first. That doesn’t make me feel any better even if I am drunk on an airplane at 39,000 feet. Maybe the unfiltered and unpolluted Texas air will give me better luck with Week 16.

The last two weeks of the season won’t be any easier. This week has at least five games with double digit spreads. Four of those games feature playoff bound teams facing off against dogs whose season ended weeks ago.

Now that Susan Sarandon is single again, The Liver would like to throw his hat in the ring. Find me another 63-year-old woman that looks that good.

Merry Christmas everyone and here’s to a better 2010. It can’t be any worse than 2009.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 3-10-3

2009 record against the spread: 125-94-5 (.570)

Friday, December 25

San Diego at Tennessee (-3)
Pick: San Diego

Sunday, December 27

Seattle at Green Bay (-14)
Pick: Green Bay

Oakland at Cleveland (-3)
Pick: Cleveland

Kansas City at Cincinnati (-14)
Pick: Kansas City

Buffalo at Atlanta (-9)
Pick: Buffalo

Houston at Miami (-3)
Pick: Miami

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-7)
Pick: Carolina

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-14)
Pick: Tampa Bay

Jacksonville at New England (-7 ½)
Pick: Jacksonville

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-3)
Pick: Baltimore

St. Louis at Arizona (-14)
Pick: St. Louis

Detroit at San Francisco (-12)
Pick: Detroit

Denver at Philadelphia (-7)
Pick: Denver

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (-5 ½)
Pick: Indy

Dallas at Washington (+7)
Pick: Washington

Monday, December 28

Minnesota at Chicago (+7)
Pick: Chicago

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Liver’s NFL Week 15 Picks

The Liver must caution all of you…stay away from these picks . Week 15 has the potential to be either an 11-5, 12-4 kind of week or the reverse . Several, if not most, of these lines have seen varying degrees of swing, some severe, due to injuries. Most, if not all, involve a team that is in the playoffs and another that has no shot whatsoever. You just don’t know what you’re getting. Even with a bottle of Charles Shaw Cabernet in me I can’t decide, dammit .

Most of these games I could pick either team to cover and am only picking them because I have a thermonuclear detonator in my head telling me to pick these damn games so I can be done with them. Otherwise I’ll never be able to pass out. If I wasn’t so obsessed with finishing the season at .600 or better it wouldn’t matter. By the way, find me someone who doesn’t live in Las Vegas, has picked every game against the spread this season, and has a winning percentage better than the Liver’s.

There’s just no way you can accurately handicap the games remaining this season. Here’s where luck has to kick in and we either swim in money or drown in piss and broken glass. This is why the guys in Vegas do this for a living.

Here’s a good story that The Liver’s roommate, Chris (the suffering but always upbeat Steelers/49’rs fan), sent him that might have been The Liver in another lifetime:

This is a cliff notes version of a story that appeared in The Huffington Post Dec. 17:

Police say four-year-old Hayden Wright managed to break the child locks on the doors, open a beer he found in his grandfather’s cooler, and then slip into his neighbor’s house and steal five Christmas presents from underneath their tree. He was found at 1:45 AM wandering the streets wearing a little girl’s brown dress (one of the presents he took), and drinking. He was taken to the hospital to be treated for the alcohol consumption.

Apparently, young Hayden’s father is in jail, and his mother says that’s why he tries to run away from time to time. Obviously, Hayden figured that the best way to spend time with his pops was to get inside the clink with him.

I can completely sympathize with the kid on everything, except the brown dress bit. That is genius thinking, though, on Hayden’s part as far as seeing his dad. Maybe one day The Liver and Hayden can share a beer together and watch a game.

Now that it’s looking like she’s going to be the ex-Mrs. Tiger, the Liver would like to make his case to Elin that he’s the man for her. I mean, how could you pass all this up?

F.Y.I. The Liver will be taking Christmas week off and try to detox in Texas with fresh air, family, good friends, and loose women that he can afford. Week 16 picks may just be the picks themselves, but they will be posted.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks, against the spread, are for recreational purposes only . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 9-7
2009 record against the spread: 122-84-2 (.592)

Saturday, Dec. 19

Dallas at New Orleans (-7)
Last week’s loss to San Diego just further drove home what I had been afraid of all season ; this Cowboys team isn’t very good. The offense hasn’t been able to score consistently and will need to score 30 to compete against a Saints team that is dominant at home. DeMarcus Ware is iffy with a sprained neck. Somehow, Cowboys’ kicker Nick Folk still has a job. Wonder who he’ll blame this week when he shanks another kick?

Dec. 10, 2006: a defining moment in Dallas Cowboys history. It was that night that the New Orleans Saints, under rookie head coach Sean Payton, handed the Cowboys their first December loss of the Tony Romo era, a 42-17 blowout on Monday Night Football.  Payton was Romo’s position coach and an Eastern Illinois graduate who helped convince Bill Parcells to take a flier on Romo.

And to think what could’ve been if Payton had stayed in Dallas as the offensive play caller one more year and Parcells had left…Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Sean Payton. Instead we got Wade Phillips and his bag of nothing. I’m starting to get depressed now.

Drew Brees should be able to pick apart the Dallas secondary with ease, and the Cowboys will quietly fade to 0-3 this December. Start getting that resume ready, Wade, because you are out! I felt an Alec Baldwin moment from Glengarry Glen Ross coming up inside of me. “Coffee is for closers only.” This would be one of the three games this week (Indy having been one that’s already covered) I would say to bet on.  I know this Dallas Cowboys team too well. At least after the massacre, Wade will be gone. 

Pick: New Orleans

Sunday, Dec. 20

Miami at Tennessee (-3)
This should be a good match-up between Ricky Williams and Chris Johnson. Vince Young is likely to play as of now, but will be hampered by a hamstring injury. Miami has faint playoff hopes while Tennessee looks to play spoiler. Call me a Longhorns apologist but I believe in Vince Young even at less then 100 percent.

Pick: Tennessee

New England at Buffalo (+7)
Wonder if any Buffalo defensive players will call out Randy Moss this week? Brady is hurt (listed as probable), Moss could be mailing it in the rest of the season and the Patriots have been shit on the road this season. This is Buffalo’s Super Bowl right here. I want to take Buffalo so badly here, but I just can’t . This just feels like a Patriots statement game. Stay away from this.

Pick: New England

Arizona at Detroit (+10 ½)
Thank you so much Arizona for those seven turnovers Monday night. That cost the Liver a shot at a nice, juicy steak. The Liver convinced a personal fitness trainer buddy of his (yup, you read it right ) by the name of Mahnik to take a three team parlay that included Indy minus seven (cover), San Diego plus three (cover), and Arizona minus three (loss ). Historically, Kurt Warner has a great bounce-back game after throwing out garbage like he did Monday night. Detroit is just a walking IR unit right now. Laying this on Arizona might be insanity, but then again you saw what the Ravens did to Detroit last week. By the way, The Liver did get that steak back with Indy covering Thursday night.

Pick: Arizona

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-8)
San Francisco did an excellent job of deep-frying the Liver’s steak last week. They’ve been an awful road team, though, and Filthy is in the driver’s seat in the NFC East. Still, this 49’rs team has been resilient for Mike Singletary. This is another game where I’m shaking my head as I write this.

Pick: San Francisco

Atlanta at N.Y. Jets (OFF)
I could not find a line for this all week due to injuries for “The Sanchize” , Matt Ryan, and Michael Turner. The Jets are hanging around in the wild card hunt and can’t afford a screw-up here to a Falcons team whose season ended weeks ago. The Jets have the number one overall defense and should make it difficult for Chris Redman, if he does play, to have much success. The Sanchize has been cleared to play while Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are questionable game-day decisions.

Pick: N.Y. Jets

Chicago at Baltimore (-10)
Baltimore has been able to feast on bad teams this year and should be able to pound a bad Bears team all day.

Pick: Baltimore

Cleveland at Kansas City (-2)
I can’t wait for this one. Does anyone know that the Browns beat the Steelers last Thursday night?

Pick: Kansas City

Houston at St. Louis (+10)
What did I say about the Lions being a walking IR unit? You can throw the Rams in there as well. Rookie QB Keith Null is probably your Rams starter and judging by what happened last week, that’s not a good thing. Houston should steamroll here.

Pick: Houston

Cincinnati at San Diego (-7)
The Bengals seem to have lost some steam lately so the last team they need right now is the dominant Chargers, that look as good as any team right now, defeated or undefeated. Carson Palmer hasn’t thrown for over 230 yards since Oct. 25. I was taking the Chargers all week, until the sad story of Chris Henry broke yesterday. I think this Bengals team will rally around that and make this a game. This would be the only other game that I feel reasonably confident in picking.

Pick: Cincinnati

Oakland at Denver (-14)
Denver is in the driver’s seat as far as the other AFC wild card spot is concerned, and can’t afford a loss to the hated Raiders. Charlie Frye will start at QB for the Raiders which means that the Broncos dominant pass defense should have its way here. How the Hell can I take the Raiders here?

Pick: Denver

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-1)
This is how bad the Steelers offensive line is: the Browns walked all over them. Green Bay has been on a five-game tear and has a solid hold on one of the NFC wild card spots. Pittsburgh has been an embarrassment in their last five games.

Pick: Green Bay

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-7)
Oh great; another NFC West match-up. I hate this f***ing division and its crappy teams . Seattle is a different team at home and the Bucs have reverted back to what they were at the beginning of the season.

Pick: Seattle

Minnesota at Carolina (+7)
This is how bad the Sunday games are this weekend; NBC isn’t flexing this game out of prime time. All the Panthers have right now is the running game and the Vikings have shown that they can shut that down all season. The Vikings need this one to shore up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Pick: Minnesota

Monday, Dec. 21

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+3)
Washington has played with real heart the last few weeks and will get its first of two chances to ruin two of their NFC East foes’ seasons with this game here, and next week’s against Dallas. The Giants’ defense has been null and void for weeks now, but can Washington score against them? Washington has looked good lately, though.  I’m pouring bourbon on top of my head and have a lit match ready.

Pick: Washington

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NFL: Liver’s Week 15 Thursday Night Pick

Think the NFL Network is happy about having the two undefeated 13-0 teams on Thursday and Saturday night? Maybe not if the Colts don’t play their starters much, which has been rumored to be a possibility.

Of course it goes without saying that the following pick AGAINST THE SPREAD is for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s pick.

Last week’s record: 9-7

2009 record against the spread: 122-84-2 (.592)

Thursday, December 17

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+3)

Colts coach Jim Caldwell, whom The Liver had never even heard speak before watching a press conference of his today, said that “our guys are feeling good and eager to play, so we’re going to turn it loose.” You would think that with history on the line, the Colts players would want to win out. However, this organization has shown in the past that it doesn’t care about undefeated seasons and would rather sit players at the end of the season if home field has been wrapped up which the Colts have done.
 
If any news breaks from now until kickoff regarding any yanking of key Colts (I’m talking about Mr. Manning now) players, The Liver reserves the right to change his pick before kickoff. This is what sucks about this time of year when some teams don’t need the win (Indy) and other teams (Jacksonville) need it to stay in the wild card picture. If the season ended today, Jacksonville would be one of the two AFC wild cards. You expect them to come out swinging as if their lives depended on it because it does.  Indy is 6-2 all time at Jacksonville and the Jags have the worst pass rush in football. If the Colts come out to win then there’s no reason they shouldn’t cover here. Pick: Indy

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Liver’s NFL Week 13 Picks

This had to be one of the more entertaining sports weeks this year. Bobby Bowden, Charlie Weis and BIG Mark Mangino are gone, Tiger Woods had cell phone issues, Mrs. Tiger found a better way to use his clubs, Ron Artest admitted drinking Hennessy during halftime of Bulls games, and The New Jersey Nets set a new futility mark to start an NBA season at 0-18.

The Texas Longhorn’s win over Texas A&M wasn’t pretty, but that should put the appropriate scare into The Liver’s beloved Longhorns as they look to seal up a spot in the national championship with a win against Nebraska on Saturday in the Big 12 Championship. I’m also going to be the biggest Alabama fan you’ve ever seen on Saturday as well.

I’d sleep a little easier knowing it would be Texas/Alabama rather than Texas/Florida. There’s too much big game experience with Florida and Tim Tebow. But, the Conservative Christian media would just LOVE it if two good Christian boys like Tebow and Colt McCoy faced off against each other.

What was I saying about games getting harder to pick as the season rolls into December and January? What was I saying about the 2009 NFL season going down as “The Year of the Concussion?”

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 6-9-1

2009 record against the spread:  106-68-2 (.609)

Sunday, December 6

Denver at Kansas City (+5)
Denver got its pulse back with the dismantling of the New York Giants on Thanksgiving and Josh McDaniels just wants to win another  (expletive) game. After that sound bite on Thanksgiving, Josh McDaniels is my new favorite coach. Despite the Chiefs’ woes, Arrowhead is still a tough place to play this time of the year and the Broncos are 1-16 in December games at Arrowhead.  Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14 ½)
Dennis Dixon actually looked pretty good in that Baltimore Ravens game, until he threw that inevitable pick in overtime. Ben Roethlisberger will play here and the Steelers will end their three-game slide here. The question is by how much? I get the feeling of a Steelers rout here, but then again, who doesn’t rout the Raiders? This is definitely a gamble here, but I just see that defense mauling the Raiders offense. Pick: Pittsburgh    
 
Houston at Jacksonville (PK)
Houston maintained its reputation last weekend as it choked away another game. I’m done betting on them this year. They have serious problems getting motivated late in these games when they should be putting teams away. Pick: Jacksonville

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-7)
Is there anyone who ISN’T picking Tennessee to cover here? Who doesn’t want to see Tennessee make history by making the playoffs after that 0-6 start? Right now, Chris Johnson is 1B in the MVP race to Brett Favre’s 1A. I’m picking Tennessee until they lose and, in case you haven’t noticed, Vince Young doesn’t lose very often. Pick: Tennessee  

Philadelphia at Atlanta (+5 ½)
Remember WAY BACK during training camp when we all thought this would be billed as “Mike Vick’s return to Atlanta” game? I’d like to hear some odds on the over/under for how many times he actually sets foot on the field. No Matt Ryan here which means Chris Redman time. Philly has some key players injured for this game with Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson out. Maybe Vick is a factor here.

This was one of the tougher games to decide on but I just don’t trust Andy Reid or Filthy right now with that many points on the road. Remember, that this is the same team that lost to JaMarcus freaking Russell and the Raiders in Oakland earlier this year when they were reasonably healthy. Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at Cincinnati (-13)
Damn you Bengals. You can’t beat the Browns by 14 points? The Lions haven’t won a road game since Oct. 28, 2007. The chances of them winning here, are as bright as the an American have walking into an emergency room in the middle of the night, telling the doctor that they don’t have health insurance and expecting them to fulfill The Hippocratic Oath. The Bengals seem to have real problems with these crappy teams. When they play the Steelers, they have no problems. When they play the Browns, they have problems. Still a little bitter over that one. Pick: Detroit

New Orleans at Washington (+9 ½)
Looks like the Saints reminded us all that if that NFC Championship game is played in New Orleans, you can pencil them in the Super Bowl. Drew Brees looked like a master surgeon Monday night as he just tore the New England secondary apart. Washington has been covering lately and New Orleans might have a bit of a letdown after that dominating Monday night win. Pick: Washington

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6 ½)
Damn you Jake Delhomme. Just when you start playing well and everyone, including The Liver, decides to pick you to cover for two weeks, you revert back to the guy that was throwing picks coming off the team bus back at the beginning of the season. At least he’s out with a broken finger on his throwing hand and that means Matt Moore time. Pick: Tampa Bay

St. Louis at Chicago (-9)
Jay Cutler is still the starting QB for the Bears, correct? Then again, Kyle Boller is the starting QB for the Rams. That’s like deciding which midget to bet on in a wrestling match. Pick: St. Louis

New England at Miami (+4)
Okay, I think I can say this without any hesitation; the Patriots are not a great team anymore. I can’t believe I just said that about a team with Tom Brady starting at QB and Bill Belichick coaching. That team got ran out of New Orleans and that defense is just AWFUL . Put them up against a good offense and they get shredded. At least we know why Belichick went for it on fourth and two against the Colts. What is it with the Patriots struggling on the road? Did you ever think you’d see the Patriots flexed OUT of a Sunday night game? The Dolphins can still give the Patriots some wild cat trouble, but unless Chad Henne can attack the Patriots secondary, the Pats should win easily here. Pick: New England

San Diego at Cleveland (+12 ½)
San Diego scares the CRAP out of me right now. I know they’re drilling bad teams, but I’m thinking of next week when they come calling to The Death Star in Arlington to face the Cowboys. Again, classic case of a hot team playing a cold team. If the Chargers rolled up an improving, but not good Chiefs team, God only knows what they’ll do here. Looks like that’ll be a career for Jamal Lewis after suffering a concussion last week. Pick: San Diego

San Francisco at Seattle (PK)
San Francisco may be able to run the ball here, but they are just 1-4 on the road. Seattle, despite its numerous injuries, is a tough team at home. I hate this NFC West division. This is one of those games I could go back and forth with for hours. Obviously, Vegas thinks the same thing. Pick: Seattle

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (+1)
It’s December and we all know what that means for the Cowboys over the last few years. But, as usual, I’m going to hope against hope that this team actually plays its best ball when it matters most which is NOW . Not to be a Cowboys excuse maker, BUT they do have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFL from here on out. This is a game they MUST win as they are going up against a battered Giants defense and a sluggish Eli Manning who really hasn’t been the same since the plantar fasciitis.

The Cowboys control their own destiny as they face all three NFC East division opponents (Giants, Redskins and Filthy Philly) along with a home games against the San Diego Chargers and a road game at New Orleans. Winning their division games will seal the division and at least guarantee that they go into the playoffs with some positive momentum. If they blow it here, expect the same old December/January blues from these Cowboys.

You can also expect Tony Romo and Miles Austin’s trip to Vegas over their 10-day post-Thanksgiving layoff to be called into question as well. Let’s see how much trash Brandon Jacobs talks here if the Cowboys shut his fat butt down. Maybe Tony Romo can inscribe something on the Giants Stadium locker room wall after the Cowboys win like “Just won the last meaningful game ever played here. T.R. – December 6, 2009.”  Pick: Dallas

Minnesota at Arizona (+3)
NBC has their wet flex dream here as they get Brett Favre and the rolling Vikings in what could be a shootout with the Cardinals. Hate to say it, but the old bastard really is playing some of his best ball EVER . Twenty-four TDs and three picks this late into the season for Favre, is near impossible to imagine considering he had been averaging in the high teens (pick-wise) the last three years.

It really has been the perfect fit for him; great running game, great offensive line, great rookie receiver, and a dominant pass rush. It’s hard not to start getting ready for the possibility of an NFC Championship match-up with the Saints. Hopefully, the Cowboys can screw that up. Kurt Warner is still questionable for this one which could mean more Matt Leinart. Pick: Minnesota

Monday, December 7

Baltimore at Green Bay (-3)
Expect playoff intensity here as both teams are fighting for wild card spots and can not afford any more losses. Baltimore’s defense has been playing better as the season has gone on and Ray Rice is running the ball hard. This could be a game where the absence of Aaron Kampman and Al Harris is felt for the Packers. For some reason, Joe Flacco doesn’t look nearly as confident as he did last season.  Pick: Green Bay

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NFL: Liver’s Week 13 Thursday Night Pick

Five things dawned on me as I sat in a Starbucks while writing this. No. 1: Last week’s games SUCKED . No. 2: Starbucks still charges for Internet usage. No. 3: In L.A., even the baristas try to scoreboard their own customers who talk about their scripts being optioned by talking about their own. No. 4: As my friend Eric the Lions fan would say “They burn their coffee.” No. 5 and most important: When you date a girl who works at a Starbucks, expect to be shown gratitude with a Starbucks card.

Of course it goes without saying that the following pick AGAINST THE SPREAD is for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Tiger Woods, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s pick.

Last week’s record: 6 —9 —1

2009 record against the spread:  106 —68 —2 (.609)

Thursday, December 3

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (+3) (in Toronto)

Looks like Mark Sanchez shook off the effects of that hot dog last weekend. Then again maybe it was just that he was hitting his receivers instead of throwing picks. The last time these two teams played each other produced that disgusting 16-13 overtime Bills win back in Week Six. The Sanchize threw five picks in that one. This isn’t going to be much of a home field advantage for the Bills and the Jets can actually PRETEND that they have an outside shot at a wild card. I want to take Buffalo but injuries to their secondary and offensive line have just gutted them. Personally, I’d rather be Tiger Woods’ PR man right now then have to pick this game but…Pick: N.Y. Jets

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NFL: Liver’s Week 12 Picks

As last week showed, it only gets tougher to pick these damn games as the season goes along. Despite being 3—7 through the Thursday night and Sunday morning games, the Liver rebounded nicely to win the last six games including the Sunday (thank you Jay Cutler) and Monday night game (thank you Kris Brown) to finish a respectable but not great (by this year’s standards) 9—7 for the week.

Anyone that had Kansas City beating Pittsburgh has my eternal respect but I don’t think there were too many of you.

Hopefully the Liver gets his Ace Rothstein groove back this weekend.

F.Y.I. For those who haven’t seen the ESPN Sunday NFL Countdown commercial with Snoop Dogg and Mike Ditka; check it out on YouTube. CLASSIC .

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Bill Belichick, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record—9—7

2009 record against the spread—100—59—1 (.625)

Sunday, November 29

Washington at Philadelphia (—9)

I have to admit it; Jason Campbell is not a bad QB. The offense just can’t score points. When you’re missing key players like Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley that’s to be expected. I hate taking Filthy laying this many points with Andy Reid lurking the sidelines ready to call a bad timeout or throw a blatantly idiotic challenge flag when it comes down to the last three minutes of the game but the Redskins just can’t score enough points. Pick—Filthy

Tampa Bay at Atlanta ( —12)

Atlanta’s season is pretty much done after last week. Tampa Bay looked like the Tampa Bay from earlier in the year against the Saints last week. Still, that’s a lot to lay on this Falcons team right now. Pick—Tampa Bay

Miami at Buffalo (+3)

Ricky Williams looked like he was back in Austin running for the Longhorns last Thursday night against the Panthers. Losing Ronnie Brown will still cost this team but not today. Pick—Miami

Carolina at N.Y. Jets (—3)

The Jets are awful right now and the Panthers, although they regressed against the Dolphins, are coming in off of 10 days rest. How are the Jets going to stop the Panthers running game? Pick—Carolina

Indianapolis at Houston (+3 ½)

Poor Houston. How many game have they blown this season? Indy continues to win by the skin of Peyton Manning’s teeth despite their secondary issues. I picked them to lose last week and I’m picking them to lose this week. This is the only early game worth a watching by the way. Pick—Houston

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)

Great…another NFC West game. What a thrilling contest this one should be. No Marc Bulger for St. Louis means Kyle Boller? Oh no. Then again that offense is one—dimensional anyway. All you have to do is hand the ball off to Steven Jackson and try to make a hole for him. Pick—St. Louis

Cleveland at Cincinnati (—14)

The Browns explode for 37 and STILL can’t win? The Bengals will wipe away the vomit in their mouth from the give—away loss against the Raiders last week. If they can’t wipe the field with these Browns, then they have a problem. Pick—Cincinnati

Chicago at Minnesota (—10 ½)

Jay Cutler is overthrowing WIDE OPEN RECEIVERS . Why is it that guy has the permanent facial expression of a five—star career drunkard? Pick—Minnesota

Arizona at Tennessee (—3)

Who’s betting against the Titans and Vince Young right now? Kurt Warner is iffy with his concussion problems, which means that Matt Leinart could see some playing time. I think I’m going to refer to the 2009 NFL season as “The Year of the Concussion” what with all the players getting knocked out and the talk about concussion education. Try saying “concussion education” five times fast. Pick—Tennessee

Jacksonville at San Francisco (—3 ½)

That’s too high a line for this 49’rs team. Jacksonville is the better team with the better running game right now. Alex Smith is great at throwing touchdowns WHEN THE GAME IS OVER AND ALL IT DOES IS F*** WITH THE LIVER TAKING THE PACKERS LAYING SIX AND A HALF . Too bad he can’t do that when the game is in the first half. Pick—Jacksonville

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Liver’s 2009 NFL Week Ten Picks

Just to let all of my faithful constituents know; the Liver picks for the rest of the season will be coming in either late Fridays, or early Saturdays. The picks have been good this year, but even the Liver needs a third job in this shitty California economy.

I suppose I can KIND OF understand where the NFL got off fining Ochocinco for his attempted “bribe” of an official with a $1 bill over the weekend, but $20,000? And Tommie Harris only gets fined $7,500 for punching Cardinals offensive lineman Deuce Lutui last weekend? Great double standard there Roger Goodell and Ray Anderson.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 10-3

2009 record against the spread: 81-47-1 (.627) 

Sunday, November 15

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (minus-7)

Yes, the Steelers looked dominant against a Broncos team that we can all say now has been exposed by bullish defenses that smack them around, and jam their receivers while laying back and saying, “Please throw on us Kyle Orton.” This Bengals team also beat the Steelers earlier in the season. Yes, I know there was no Troy Polamalu, and he clearly makes a difference on that defense.

Bengals win this game, and they are in total control of the AFC North, and 4-0 against the Steelers and Ravens. If the Cedric Benson that’s shown up this season continues his play here, the Bengals will be in position to win, granted they don’t play into the hands of this Steelers defense.

Hard to bet against the Steelers winning a game like this at home, but I think the Bengals keep this one under the seven. Meanwhile, watch as Ochocinco whips out a rare $2 bill while blowing his nose on the sideline, and gets fined $40,000 next week.

Pick: Cincinnati

Denver at Washington (plus-3.5)

The love affair is over for Denver, as has been demonstrated over the last two weeks. Punch them in the mouth and dare Kyle Orton to throw on you. And the Cowboys lost to THAT TEAM ? Meanwhile, Washington’s season goes from bad to worse as Redskins fans demand Daniel Snyder’s head on a stick.

Pick: Denver

Buffalo at Tennessee (minus-7)

Not a pretty game to watch, but Vince Young is back and that means the Titans are competitive and more often then not, will have a chance to win. He doesn’t have great numbers, but he wins more then he loses.

Pick: Tennessee

Atlanta at Carolina (plus-1.5)

Carolina has been running the ball well, yet still pissed away a win against the Saints last weekend. If Jake Delhomme can take care of the ball, they can put a scare into some teams. Atlanta needs to get on a win streak if they hope to get a wild card spot. Michael Turner needs to keep running the ball well for Matt Ryan to cut down on his picks.

Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at Minnesota (minus-16.5)

Damn that’s a lot of points, but have you seen Matt Stafford lately?

Pick: Minnesota

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (minus-7)

So Jacksonville is 4-4? Go figure. The Jets come off their bye and need to get back to their early season form when their defense was mauling people. That defense, however, is beat up, and may have peaked a little early.

Pick: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay at Miami (minus-9.5)

Thank you very F***ING much Tampa for ruining my weekend. True, I only lost three games last weekend, but that Tampa Bay/Green Bay game was a lock dammit! Now I suppose we should call him the great Josh Freeman?

Miami played well against the Patriots, but lost to the better team. They’re not a bad team despite the 3-5 record. Bottom line is, Miami runs the ball extremely well and Tampa Bay couldn’t stop (insert name of any dead relative, or celebrity you like here).

Pick: Miami

New Orleans at St. Louis (plus-13.5)

Just what I love to see; another insanely high line. Just call me Mr. Chalk this weekend.

Pick: New Orleans

Kansas City at Oakland (minus-2)

Not even the fans of these teams want to watch this crap. And Oakland is favored? This could quite possibly the worst game played in the NFL this season until Week 16 when Oakland plays Cleveland.

When describing how I felt about picking the Thursday night “thriller” between Chicago and San Francisco, I used the words of Sheriff Kimbel in Young Guns II when asked to go after Billy the Kid, “I’d rather drink turpentine and piss on a brushfire.” It goes DOUBLE here. I HATE PICKING THIS GAME .

Pick: Kansas City

Philadelphia at San Diego (minus-1)

After last week’s Sunday night game, I think Andy Reid made Wade Phillips look like a Rhodes Scholar when it came to clock management and challenges. Now I know why so many Filthy fans are convinced they’ll never win a Super Bowl with him as head coach. San Diego can score with anyone in the league right now, and their defense made some key stops last week against the Giants.

Pick: San Diego

Dallas at Green Bay (plus-3)

This is an excellent opportunity, as is the rest of the month for the Cowboys to put some real distance between them, and the Eagles in the NFC East race. This is the season for the Packers.  I just don’t think they are a good team, which last week’s loss to Tampa Bay made painfully clear. Their offensive line sucks, Aaron Rodgers gives up too many bad sacks, and their defense can’t contain anyone good. Aaron Kampman is also probably out with a concussion. There’s simply no excuse for the Cowboys not to be 9-2 at the end of this month with Washington and Oakland waiting.

Pick: Dallas

Seattle at Arizona (minus-9)

Why is it Arizona plays better on the road then at home? If they can’t beat this sad sack of a Seattle team, they don’t deserve to win that shitty NFC West division. Wait a minute; come to think of it, NO ONE DESERVES TO WIN THAT SHITTY DIVISION .

Pick: Arizona

New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Yeah, this might be an important game to watch. Outside of Steelers-Bengals, this is the game to watch this Sunday. The best test for either of these teams so far this year with the winner likely rolling to the AFC Championship. I just think the Patriots are the healthier, better team right now.

The Colts are banged up, especially in the secondary, and it showed against the Texans last week. If any team is going to exploit their injuries, it has to be the Patriots. Then again, Peyton Manning doesn’t lose often in night games. Another tough call here.

Pick: New England

Monday, November 16

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10 ½)

Couldn’t ESPN rerun an old NFL Draft instead of this? They might actually get some people to watch. I think it’s safe to say that this Browns team has completely revolted against Eric Mangini, AND HE’S HALFWAY THROUGH HIS FIRST SEASON . Anyone want to take odds he’s fired after the Browns season finale? God I can’t wait for that Oakland/Cleveland thriller in Week 16.

Pick: Baltimore

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Liver’s 2009 NFL Week Nine Picks

Why is it that most of life’s problems CAN be solved with money?

If you’re having emotional problems, you can afford therapy. If you’re having romantic problems, you can rent a hooker.

If you’re having physical problems, you hire a trainer and get in shape.

If I EVER meet the asshole that said, “Money can’t buy happiness,” I’m gonna break my empty bottle of Glenlivet over his throat.

Then again, if you’re a gambling junkie AND you have money, you can always afford ONE more game.

Speaking of hookers, Dallas police said this week that they expect the number of prostitutes in the region to sharply rise for this February’s NBA All-Star game and again for the 2011 Super Bowl XLV, both of which will be held at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. Whatever helps the economy, I say.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY .

Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 9-4

2009 record against the spread:   71-44-1 (.612)

 

Sunday, November 8

Washington at Atlanta (-10)
Expect Atlanta to break their two-game skid against this poor excuse of a Redskins team and reestablish themselves in the NFC wild card hunt. I see this being a thorough destruction by an angry Falcons team. Pick: Atlanta

Arizona at Chicago (-3)
Can you think of two more inconsistent teams in the NFC that play great one week then look terrible the next? Chicago comes off an easy win against the Browns. What win against the Browns isn’t?

Meanwhile, Arizona is coming off an ugly loss to a bad Carolina team that saw Kurt Warner throw five picks. Whichever team can establish a run game here probably wins. Arizona has actually played better on the road (3-0) then at home (1-3) this year. Pick: Arizona

Baltimore at Cincinnati (+3)
The time is now for the Bengals who are coming off a bye. They can put a stranglehold on the AFC North with wins against division rivals Baltimore this weekend and then the Steelers next week.

Wins over both would give them season sweeps over both teams and give them tie-breaker edges as well. Baltimore comes off a dominating win over Denver and needs this game in order to stay close to the Bengals and Steelers.

If Cedric Benson can duplicate what he did to the Ravens defense in their earlier meeting back in Week 5, the Bengals should be in good shape.

The Ravens should be confident going into this game but Cincinnati GETTING points at home seems too good to pass up. Pick: Cincinnati

 

Kansas City at Jacksonville (-7)
This should be a superb waste of time. Kansas City is awful and Jacksonville is mediocre at best.

Maybe Jack Del Rio should put another tree trunk and axe in the Jags locker room. Then again, it didn’t help much last season.

Matt Cassel might have some time to throw on the Jags shaky pass rush. Pick: Kansas City

Miami at New England (-10½)
With the Jets and Bills floundering right now, this is an excellent chance for the Dolphins to get back into the AFC wild card race. The Wild Cat was brought out against the Patriots early last season and has been hard to stop since.

It’s tough not to go with the Patriots after a bye though. Still, I see Miami keeping SOMEWHAT close here. Pick: Miami

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (+10)
Tampa Bay is now the worst team in the NFL as the Rams got their first and, most likely, only victory against the Lions last week. There will be some interest in how rookie QB Josh Freeman performs in his first start for the Bucs.

Meanwhile, the Packers can only play for the wild card after officially being knocked out of the NFC North last week by the Vikings. That pass protection for Aaron Rodgers is an insult and he could start showing signs of the weekly beatings he takes before long.

Still, he has played his best against the worst teams on the Packers schedule. Add the rookie QB starting his first game and I gotta lay these points. Pick: Green Bay

Houston at Indianapolis (-9)
If Houston is to be taken seriously, they have to win this game otherwise the AFC South crown will belong to the Colts.

The Texans, however, have only beaten the Colts once in franchise history having lost 13 of 14 all-time match-ups to their divisional rival. With Owen Daniels out, expect the Colts to zero in on Andre Johnson and not allow him to beat them on the corners.

November just might be the toughest month of the season for the 2009 Colts where they have two games against the Texans in three weeks. This just might be the biggest game in the history of the Texans.

The Colts defense is slowly starting to resemble the M.A.S.H. unit that is the Giants defense and sooner or later, they’re gonna get exposed. I like Houston here to make this a game. Pick: Houston

 

Detroit at Seattle (-10)
Seattle is pretty banged up but a Lions team coming to visit should help them feel better for this week anyway. The Lions took a step backward last week in that pathetic showing against the Rams.

I know laying 10 on Seattle sounds like a lot but this is still the Lions and the Seahawks actually play like a team with a pulse at home. Pick: Seattle

 

Carolina at New Orleans (-14 ½)
This could easily be a trap game for the Saints but I think they’re focused enough not to go to sleep on this bad Panthers team with Jake Delhomme and his walking turnover bit.

I know the Panthers played well last week but that wasn’t against what is looking to be the best team in football right now. Still for some reason…Pick: Carolina

San Diego at N.Y. Giants (-5)
Talk about two teams that need a win badly. The 5-0 start for the Giants seems like another year ago now. Their injured secondary has been getting lit up the last three weeks and the pass rush has been ineffective to put it mildly.

Eli Manning has also looked bad the last three weeks and one has to wonder whether that foot and heel is more of a problem for him then he’s admitting.

Phillip Rivers is exactly the QB that the Giants don’t want to see right now. He could make it four weeks in a row of beat downs for that secondary. The Giants do still have a great running game and that should be what keeps them in the game.

The Chargers can’t run the ball, but it might not even matter here if they can keep the Giants secondary on their heels. Pick: San Diego

Tennessee at San Francisco (-4)
Not so bad for Vince Young last week? The Titans recipe for success will always be the running game and Vince Young can at least keep defenses scrambling with his athletic ability.

The 49’ers had that game in Indianapolis but let it slip away in the fourth quarter. They should prove to be a much better opponent than what the Titans faced last week but their offense could be hindered by the loss of left tackle Joe Staley for six weeks. Pick: San Francisco

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)

Dallas and Filthy both come in at 5-2 and atop the NFC East with the Giants sliding back the last three weeks. Dallas has looked strong during their three game win streak but Filthy is a notoriously tough place for the Cowboys to play in. Also, their wins have come against Kansas City, Atlanta and Seattle.

The only good team you take from that mix is Atlanta and they are clearly having problems right now. If Filthy can duplicate the pass rush they sent out against Eli Manning last week, Tony Romo might be in for a long night.

He has been great over the last three weeks at limiting his turnovers and will need to continue his strong play here if the Cowboys are to pull off the road win. Dallas’ shaky secondary could see some problems in the form of Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson.

If LeSean McCoy’s flu keeps him out of the game, the Cowboys should be able to control a running game that would feature Brian Westbrook coming off a concussion.

That, combined with their dominance in the run game with their three-headed attack should keep the blitz-happy Filthy defense on the field for long drives. Turnovers will also be a factor here as the Eagles are plus-12 in turnover ratio. The Cowboys are minus-1.

Football becomes a lot easier when you’re creating turnovers. Bottom line is that this is still one of the most hostile places for the Cowboys to play at and Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb have pretty much owned the Cowboys during their reign at Filthy. I hope I’m wrong but…Pick: Filthy

Monday, November 9

Pittsburgh at Denver (+3)
Pittsburgh comes in rested off a bye and riding a four game win streak. The Broncos tasted defeat for the first time last week against Baltimore and were dominated. It doesn’t get easier for them here.

The Ravens might have exposed the Broncos defense when it comes to out-muscling them. You’d expect the hard hitting Steelers defense to follow along with that trend.

This is a huge test for this young Broncos team and Josh McDaniels as we see how they deal with their first adversity of the season. I just think that the Steelers are starting to roll right now. Pick: Pittsburgh

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Liver’s 2009 NFL Week Seven Picks

The Liver is still rejoicing after the Longhorns’ 16-13 victory over Oklahoma last Saturday. How many millions has Sam Bradford cost himself now?

What is it with ESPN and these sexual indiscretions with female staffers? First it was Harold Reynolds then Woody Paige and now 46-year-old Steve Phillips and his affair with a 22-year-old dumpy ESPN production assistant that has turned into his own personal Fatal Attraction . He couldn’t do any better than that?

The spurned, chunky lover did a full-on Glenn Close complete with stalking phone calls and text messages to Phillips’ wife, and Facebook messages to his son. This culminated in her leaving a written letter to Phillips’ wife on her front door detailing the entire affair and crashing her car into a pole after Phillips’ wife came home to find her on her property. No bunny boiling in the pot? No kidnapping his son and taking him on a roller coaster?

Phillips must be a compete idiot considering that this isn’t his first time on this horse. When he was the GM of the N.Y. Mets in the 90s, he copped to having multiple affairs. Doesn’t he know by now that there is NO PRIVACY when it comes to these things?

These days, even if you’re a minor celebrity, you can’t get away with ANYTHING in the world of Facebook and Twitter. There HAS TO BE something in the water there in Bristol, Connecticut.

I don’t know why but I’m rooting for Bobby Bowden to end his tenure at Florida State on his own terms and not have to deal with all the crap that he’s had to over the last couple of weeks. I know they’re not a top 10 program anymore but I think 33 years on the job earns you the right to go out when you want to.

As if you needed more evidence as to why NOT to work with your wife. L.A. Dodgers owner and chairman Frank McCourt fired his wife Jamie as CEO of the team yesterday. By the way, the McCourts are also going through an already ugly divorce where both sides are fighting for control of the team. Isn’t marriage a beating enough without having to see your spouse on a daily basis?

Governator Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a bill yesterday allowing the construction of a 75,000 seat stadium in the L.A. area for a potential NFL team to hang its hat on. Don’t waste your time breaking ground on it, the people of L.A. will NEVER pay for it. That’s why the NFL will NEVER come back to L.A. No one cares enough in this town about the NFL to help foot the bill for a new stadium.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.

Last week’s record: 6-8

2009 record against the spread: 56-34, .622 

Sunday, October 25

San Diego at Kansas City (+4 ½)
You can go ahead and call it a season for the 2009 Chargers. The offense is solid through the air but the running game is awful and the defense is getting worse each game. They would need another late-season Broncos collapse to get back in the AFC West race and I don’t see that happening with the 2009 Broncos team.

The running game, which is tied for last in the NFL, has allowed teams to pressure and blitz Phillip Rivers late in games.  Kansas City is coming off its first win and might be able to capitalize on an inconsistent Chargers defense that is fading late in games. Pick: Kansas City

Green Bay at Cleveland (+7)
Green Bay still has pass protection problems as last week’s five sacks indicated. Luckily they’re going up against a Cleveland team that has the 32nd ranked defense and the 31’st ranked offense in the NFL. Pick: Green Bay 

Minnesota at Pittsburgh (-4)
This is shaping up to be the game of the weekend as the undefeated Vikings pay a visit to the Steelers. The Vikings defense forgot there were four quarters in the game last weekend and nearly gave away the game to the Ravens. The Steelers still have problems putting teams away as they showed last week against the Browns. Four turnovers don’t help either.

The Steelers will need to be flawless to beat the Vikings here. If the Vikings can continue to mix the run with the pass effectively they should come out with an impressive road win. Both of these defenses have given up large numbers of points in the fourth quarter. Pick: Minnesota

Chicago at Cincinnati (PK)
Losing Antwan Odom for the year could have a huge impact on that Bengals defense. Cedric Benson will no doubt have revenge on his mind as he faces his former team that he says blackballed him, yet everything they said about him was true.

He HAD been arrested for two alcohol related incidents before he was cut, HAD a poor work ethic AND performed poorly on the field. As Clifford Worley (Dennis Hopper) says in True Romance , “Now, if that’s a fact, tell me, am I lying?” 

The Bears lost another game last week that they had control of and red zone turnovers are a huge problem for them. They must get Matt Forte and the running game going to keep the pressure off of Jay Cutler. Pick: Chicago

Indianapolis at St. Louis (+13)
Look for Peyton Manning to continue his hot streak against the win-less Rams. He should have no problems carving up another poor secondary. I know the Colts will be 6-0 after this game but I’m still not sure just how good they are. They’re not going to be truly challenged until the Patriots come to visit on November 15. Pick: Indy

New England at Tampa Bay (+14 ½) (in London)
I’d like to know how this constitutes as a home game for the Bucs considering that this game is in LONDON . What is the point in having these games there anyway? Oh, I forgot; Roger Goodell thinks that the NFL can travel overseas.

NO ONE overseas cares about the NFL. It’s the other football they care about.  The Pats had a 2007 flashback last week as they rolled the Titans 59-0 and could have a similar output here. Pick: New England

San Francisco at Houston (-3)
San Francisco has had two weeks to think about that thrashing they took at the hands of the Falcons. The defense is still stingy but the 29th ranked offense needs a spark. Given that, it’s no surprise that this game will see the unveiling of Michael Crabtree after his lengthy holdout.

He just might have a decent debut considering that the Texans can score with anyone but can’t stop anyone consistently. The 49’rs should benefit from Frank Gore’s return. Pick: Houston

N.Y. Jets at Oakland (+7)
This game might actually be worth a watch. Don’t hear so much trash from Jets fans or Rex Ryan lately. Maybe that has to do with Mark Sanchez playing like a rookie the last three weeks or the defense collapsing late in games.

Oakland comes in high off their upset win over Filthy last week and if the Jets defense can’t get to JaMarcus Russell early, the Jets could be looking at a four game losing streak. This game also features two head coaches in Rex Ryan and Tom Cable who look like they would be happier starting drunken fistfights in a bar. We all know Cable’s in for that. Pick: N.Y.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7)
Interested in two teams going nowhere fast? Then enjoy this waste of time. The Bills won a game against the Jets last week that NO TEAM deserved to win while the Panthers barely beat a win-less Bucs team while still turning over the ball at an alarming rate. Think I’ll pull an H.I. McDonnough for this game and “slip out with the boys and knock back a couple of Coca Colas.” Pick: Carolina

Atlanta at Dallas (-4)
Atlanta is looking strong after their win over the Bears last week and could roll up the points against a Cowboys secondary that is ranked 26th in the league. The Cowboys front seven have to get in Matt Ryan’s face early and often or this could get ugly. The Cowboys got some vital players back over the bye including Roy Williams and Felix Jones.

This should be a battle of running games. If the Cowboys can get their running game back to what it was early in the season with Jones, Barber and Choice running strong, they have a chance here as long as Tony Romo plays error free and the Dallas receivers can make some plays.

If the Falcons can get Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood going and improve on their 24th ranked rushing offense; that takes pressure off of Matt Ryan. I can’t believe in Dallas until they actually beat a good team. Pick: Atlanta

New Orleans at Miami (+7)
This should be an excellent test for the Saints defense as they face a wild cat heavy Dolphins offense and strong running game. They’ve feasted on opposing QBs so far this season and Chad Henne will have to play smart in order to avoid falling on that list. Pick: Miami

Arizona at N.Y. Giants (-7)
Looks like the injuries finally caught up to the Giants secondary last weekend. The run game never got much of a chance against the Saints because they were down double digits most of the game. Remarkably, the Cardinals are ranked number one in the NFL against the run giving up only 59.6 yards a game. They haven’t faced a physical, run-heavy team like the Giants though.

Arizona has gotten wins over the Texans and Seahawks the last two weeks and is on a good roll offensively. Whether or not they can keep that up against a Giants team looking for a reprieve after last week’s Saints beating is another thing. Pick: Arizona

Monday, October 26

Philadelphia at Washington (+7)
The Sherm Lewis era begins in Washington. Sorry, but a 67-year-old guy calling your offensive plays that was calling bingo numbers at a Detroit retirement home a week earlier and has been out of the NFL for five years doesn’t exactly light my fire. The Eagles are under pressure after that embarrassing loss to the Raiders last week and could feast on a dying Redskins offense.

The Redskins do, however, have the fifth ranked defense in the NFL that is third against the pass. If the Redskins’ pass rush can duplicate Oakland’s game plan and pressure McNabb all game long, then they have a chance. Filthy’s defense is ranked fourth overall in the league so this game might actually be an ugly, grind-it-out, low scoring affair. Take the under. Pick: Filthy

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