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Liver’s 2009 NFL Week Six Picks
Published: October 16, 2009
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It finally rained here in Los Angeles over the week. Maybe that will put out all these goddamn fires. If only a rain could come and wash away the mess that is the state economy. That would alleviate countless ulcers and have many here seeing God in the clouds.
Texas/OU pregame celebrations have already commenced for the Liver and he is about to board his flying saucer of a balloon to fly over the Cotton Bowl.
I think I’ve already passed my season limit of taking double digit favorites and we’re not even to Week Seven yet.
Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver’s picks.
Last week’s record: 11-3
2009 record against the spread: 50-26, .657
Sunday, Oct. 18
N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-3)
The game of the weekend by far. Two of the three undefeated NFC teams go at it in what may be a preview of the conference championship. The Saints are fresh off a bye and will need to focus on stopping the Giants’ powerful running game. Gregg Williams will no doubt bring pressure on Eli Manning and try to make his life miserable in the pocket. The Giants’ injured secondary just might have met its match in the high octane Saints’ offensive attack that has looked unstoppable at times, especially at home. Pick: New York
Kansas City at Washington (-6 ½)
Also known as Jim Zorn’s last stand. Kansas City should’ve won against the Cowboys last weekend but missed their chance. It might have a hangover effect in this game if they get off to a slow start against a troubled Redskins team that is literally playing for their coach’s job. If Kansas City can exploit the weak and injured Redskins’ offensive line, they’ll be in the game. Washington isn’t good enough to be a six-plus point favorite over anybody. Pick: Kansas City
St. Louis at Jacksonville (-10)
I know I picked Seattle to beat Jacksonville last weekend but NO ONE saw that 41-0 destruction coming. Whatever ails the Jaguars should be fixed here against a Rams team that took the mantle of Worst Team in the NFL away from the Browns last weekend. If the Rams had the weapons they could exploit a Jags’ pass defense that is ranked 30th in the league. Looks like Rush Limbaugh’s bid to buy the team didn’t even last a week. What a surprise. Who figured there would be a public outcry against Rush Limbaugh buying an NFL team what with his spotless past? Pick: Jacksonville
Detroit at Green Bay (-13 ½)
Green Bay is coming off their bye, but will their offensive line problems still linger? Detroit was competitive against Pittsburgh but still has a ways to go on defense. Matt Stafford’s status is uncertain for this game as is Calvin Johnson’s, which means that neither will play. If Detroit can put pressure on the shaky Packers’ offensive line, they might be able to make this a ballgame. I want to take Detroit here, but without their two best offensive weapons, I must gamble on the side of caution. Pick: Green Bay
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14)
Don’t expect the Browns to add to their win streak here. Derek Anderson is not going to beat this team going 2-for-17-for-23 yards. The Steelers have owned this team since 2003, winning 11 in a row and nothing should change in this matchup. The Steelers have had problems putting teams away late in games this year, but there is nothing to indicate that the Browns can even score on them. This isn’t the Buffalo Bills. Pick: Pittsburgh
Houston at Cincinnati (-5)
The Texans followed their pattern last week of lose-win, lose-win, and continue to be the definition of mediocrity. The Bengals pulled out another last minute fourth quarter win and will have to be careful of a letdown here. Much of the Bengals’ success has come on the ground with Cedric Benson reviving what had been a bust of a career. The Texans have had problems with strong running teams, so look for the Bengals to pound away with the run game. Still, the Texans can put up points. Pick: Houston
Baltimore at Minnesota (-3)
Baltimore has lost two straight heart breakers, and late penalties have been a factor in both losses. The defense gave up their first 100-yard rusher since Dec. 10, 2006 as Cedric Benson ran wild against them. It doesn’t get any easier as they face Adrian Peterson and the undefeated Vikings. Still, this looks to be one of the better matchups of the weekend. Pick: Minnesota
Carolina at Tampa Bay (+3 ½)
Carolina finally got its first win of the season last weekend and needs to capitalize on a weak Tampa Bay secondary early. Carolina would be wise to use their power tandem of Williams and Stewart heavily against a Tampa Bay run defense that is giving up 153 yards on the ground per game. Pick: Tampa Bay
Arizona at Seattle (-3)
Take the over on this one. Both teams have had shown flashes of excellent play, and in this crappy NFC West division, especially with the 49ers getting drilled last weekend, you’re never out of it. Seattle looked dominant against the Jags last weekend, and the Cardinals held off a late Texans’ rally. This is going to come down to which defense can make a play in the end. The Seahawks seem to have the defensive edge, particularly when it comes to rushing the passer. The Seahawks are tied for fourth in the NFL with 14 sacks and have the ability to knock Kurt Warner around before he has time to find his receivers. Pick: Seattle
Philadelphia at Oakland (+14)
This should be over in the first quarter much like the Giants/Raiders game from last weekend. Philly is healthy and starting to hit its stride while the Raiders play with less heart each weekend. JaMarcus Russell is an embarrassment to the QB position. It doesn’t even look like he cares anymore. Pick: Filthy
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets (-10)
The Jets are facing adversity for the first time under the new Sanchez/Ryan regime, after losing their last two games. They need to capitalize on an anemic Bills’ offense that could only score three points against Cleveland last week. The blitz happy Jets’ defense should dominate this game. Much like the Redskins, this Bills team is playing for Dick Jauron’s job. Rumors have already begun circulating that there could be a Baby Drop to the Bears trade in the works. Pick: New York
Tennessee at New England (-9 ½)
Vince Young finally got some time under center last week, and with the Titans 0-5 now, there’s no reason he shouldn’t start the rest of the way. New England is coming off a tough OT loss in Denver and Tom Brady should find the injured Titans’ secondary, which is giving up more yards through the air than any team not named the Arizona Cardinals, easy targets. Pick: New England
Chicago at Atlanta (-3)
Atlanta comes off a statement game where they tore the 49’rs to pieces while the Bears are rested coming off their bye. With the Vikings looking unbeatable and in control of the NFC North, the Bears will need every win they can get if they hope to get a wild card spot. Atlanta found their run game last weekend and should continue to pound the ball away with Michael Turner. Pick: Atlanta
Monday, Oct. 19
Denver at San Diego (-4)
I think we can all say after last Sunday’s win against the Patriots, that the Broncos are for real. They’ll be tested here in a game that could decide the AFC West early. San Diego, at 2-2 and coming off a bye that saw their GM criticize the defense, needs this game in the worst way or things could completely unravel. Look for Denver to blitz Philip Rivers heavily as the Chargers are a throw-first team since their running game has been nonexistent so far this season. Pick: Denver
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