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Kyle Orton vs Alex Smith: Comparing Two Very Similar Quarterbacks

Published: January 7, 2010

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With the 2009-2010 NFL season now in the books for the majority of the NFL’s 32 teams, it is time for fans to discuss why their clubs failed to qualify for the postseason.

Fans around the league will argue over what went wrong, what they can do better and where they need upgrades.

The majority of these fans are going to throw out absurd ideas about who should stay and who should go from their team. Likewise, owners will often make rash decisions about player personnel before giving enough time to diagnose what went wrong.

Now in particular, their are two teams with quarterbacks who while are very similar, are players who should be looked at in completely different lights.

The Denver Broncos fell apart after a 6-0 start and missed the playoffs and the San Francisco 49ers went through a quarterback change despite a 3-1 start and also missed the playoffs.

Denver became just the third team in nearly 40 years to start the season 6-0 and fail to qualify for the playoffs, but their quarterback Kyle Orton was part of the solution, not the problem.

The 6′ 4″, 217 pound 2005 draft pick played at a higher level than his team’s 8-8 finish.

San Francisco fell short of the playoffs for the seventh straight season, as Alex Smith got back on the field only to show the same inconsistencies he has shown throughout his career.

This 6′ 4″, 217 pound 2005 draft pick played at a level expected for a team who finished the season at 8-8.

Both quarterbacks led their teams to .500 records in their first years under a new offensive scheme and both were with completely different teams.

Orton was traded to Denver over the offseason and Smith hadn’t appeared in a game since 2007 when he had a completely different 49ers roster around him. The 2009 49ers had a Pro Bowl version of Vernon Davis, three different starters on the offensive line, Michael Crabtree and a vastly improved defense. Smith hardly had any of this talent around him in ’07.

Add the new coaches and Smith almost had an entirely different team supporting him.

So going into the 2009 season, you had two quarterbacks who had shown flashes of success but weren’t exactly thought highly of by the majority of NFL fans.

Orton had completed just 55 percent of his career passes for 5,319 yards in 33 games including 30 touchdowns against 27 interceptions prior to 2009.

Smith had completed just 54 percent of his career passes for 4,679 yards in 32 games including 19 touchdowns and 32 interceptions.

After this past season the numbers remained quite similar when you look at the quarterbacking statistics for the 2009.

Orton:

W-L: 8-8   Rating: 86.8   Comp%: 62.1  Yds/G: 237.6  Yds/A: 7.0  TD: 21   INT: 12

Fum: 4  FumL: 2

Smith:

W-L: 5-5  Rating: 81.5  Comp%: 60.5  Yds/G: 213.6  Yds/A: 6.3  TD: 18   INT: 12

Fum: 2  FumL: 1

 

Looking at the statistics both quarterbacks were similarly awful prior to this season, especially when you consider the lack of weapons they had around them in their first few years.

Now after the 2009 season, it is clear they both improved.

This time around, they were similarly average (again, when looking at the numbers).

But any Bronco fan who bashes Kyle Orton needs a reality check. Orton led your team to a 6-0 start. Three of those wins came against teams currently in the playoffs and of those three, Orton posted quarterback ratings above 115 in two of them. And his 96.7 rating against New England wasn’t too shabby either.

Orton unfortunately suffered an injury in the week 10 contest against the Washington Redskins and in the following week’s rematch against San Diego, Orton wasn’t healthy enough to play his best football.

Against the Chargers Orton turned in an awful 55.4 rating but in three of the Broncos’ eight losses he turned in a rating above 90.

Fans can’t blame Orton for the Bronco defense allowing JaMarcus Russell of all people to lead a game winning touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. Nor can they blame Orton for Donovan McNabb shredding the Denver defense for 322 yards and three touchdowns.

And in the season finale against the Chiefs, well, it ain’t like Orton can go out on defense and help stop the Kansas City running game which broke loose for 317 yards and three touchdowns.

Orton did have a bad game in the finale, but it also didn’t help that he was without three of his favorite targets in the passing game with neither Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal or Tony Scheffler in the lineup.

Alex Smith, on the other hand, had all three of his top targets in the passing game available during the 49ers season finale against the 1-14 St. Louis Rams but still accumulated just 23 yards passing in the first half.

But as much as I have diagnosed the last two games of the 49ers schedule which came against the aforementioned Rams and Detroit Lions, these two games had no luster. So perhaps it is understandable that Smith didn’t play to his capabilities in meaningless games.

However, let’s compare these two quarterbacks in games against teams that made the playoffs.

Orton went 4-4 against teams that made the playoffs this season. Smith on the other hand went 1-3 against playoff teams with his sole win coming in a game where he managed a quarterback rating of just 59.7 and led the offense to just 24 points despite his defense forcing seven turnovers.

The answer is clear: Kyle Orton is the better quarterback. While Denver may have had a better offensive line than San Francisco, Orton was simply much better than Smith when both players had adequate time to throw.

A couple of signature throws from Orton were his beautiful 19-yard touchdown pass to Tony Scheffler in week six against the Chargers and his 75-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall in week 10 against the Redskins.

Signature throws from Alex Smith? Can’t really think of any that match the quality of throws Orton was able to put up this season.

While Smith can certainly improve, the 49ers still need to allocate a good chunk of their time scouting for other options because Smith just might not ever become the guy they thought they were getting when they drafted him with the No. 1 overall pick in 2005.

The Broncos on the other hand, they have their guy.

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San Francisco 49ers: The Plays That Made Fans Jump Up and Down in 2009

Published: January 6, 2010

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While the 2009 San Francisco 49ers came up short in their goal of making the playoffs, an 8-8 regular season (their first non-losing season since 2002) made for an exciting brand of football.

Despite having to switch quarterbacks mid-way through the season, the 49ers still managed to hang around the playoff race until week 15, largely in part to the big play abilities in all three phases of the game

Unfortunately the 49ers would fall short in each phase of the game when it mattered most this season and because of this, they managed just two wins on the road and missed the post-season.

As their head coach Mike Singletary stated after the season finale, his team was simply too immature to reach their goals. And part of that immaturity has to be placed on the head coach. Questionable clock management, including odd timeout usages and play calling was evident throughout the season.

But with a year and a half of coaching under his belt, Singletary should improve as a head coach next season and his players will improve because of it.

Alex Smith will improve, the offensive line will improve and the defense will improve in 2010, and a big reason for the confidence in this team moving forward comes from the big plays turned in on both sides of the ball and even special teams this past season.

Granted some of the big plays turned in by the 49ers came in non crucial moments, including ones in the last two meaningless games. Therefore I have left those off this list.

The remaining big plays that made the list were the ones that fans went crazy over because they were huge moments in crucial games that had playoff implications on the line.

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What Should the San Francisco 49ers Do with Their Two First Round Picks?

Published: December 30, 2009

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With only the lowly St. Louis Rams left on the 2009 schedule for the San Francisco 49ers, it feels like time to look forward to the offseason for the Red and Gold.

As the current NFL standings lie going into week 17, the 49ers are projected to receive the 12th and 15th overall picks in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Those exact positions are subject to change, but you can be guaranteed that both selections will fall between No. 10 and No. 20 overall.

By virtue of having these two middle tier selections, the 49ers can significantly upgrade their talent level in this draft, but only if they do so wisely. By wisely, I mean not passing up on an explosive talent like they did two years ago when they passed on DeSean Jackson twice in the 2008 draft.

Assuming (although it is never good to assume with the 49ers) that San Francisco finishes the season with a win over the Rams, the 49ers will finish at .500 with a record of 8-8.

Now while posters here on B/R may be fed up with my negative opinion of quarterback Alex Smith, it needs to be reiterated that Smith is and should be the starter for 2010. Never have I said he shouldn’t be; I have simply stated that he doesn’t show that “it” factor that makes you think, “Wow, I could really see this guy leading the 49ers to playoff success.”

He has the ability to get the 49ers to the playoffs and maybe win a game or maybe even two, but when it comes to sustained playoff success year after year, Smith doesn’t project to have the necessary skills to be that type of quarterback.

But that is an argument I have beaten to death over the course of the season, and with the year coming to a close, it is time to analyze how this team can improve upon what is probably going to be an 8-8 finish, their first non-losing season since 2002.

The first and foremost need for the 49ers is to bolster their offensive line, but using both their first round selections on offensive linemen would be a major, major mistake.

Did the offensive line of Joe Staley, David Baas, Eric Heitmann, Chilo Rachal, and Adam Snyder live up to the expectations coming into this season? No, of course not—they performed at an unacceptable level.

However, wasn’t this the same offensive line that fans were excited to see play for a full season coming out of last year’s 5-2 finish? Staley, Baas, Heitmann, and Snyder played quite well down the stretch, and as a rookie, Rachal got in there late and had some memorable blocks in front of Frank Gore.

One inconsistent season and the entire offensive line not named Joe Staley needs to be replaced? If Staley wasn’t a first round pick, would his job be as safe as it is? His 2009 campaign was solid, and he is, by far, the best offensive lineman the 49ers have, but he isn’t as dominant as fans like to claim.

That said, Staley is almost certain to improve next season, just as both Baas and Rachal are likely to improve. Remember, this was just Baas’ second full season as a starter and Rachal’s first. The core four of Staley-Baas-Heitmann-Rachal has the talent to have a bounce-back year in 2010, and making any changes amongst those four is not a vital need.

But what is a vital need is a right tackle. Just like last offseason, the 49ers need a big, strong, and quick tackle to play opposite of Staley. If there is a right tackle that fits the bill in the draft, then the 49ers should use one of their first round choices and take that player.

If there isn’t that dominating tackle available, the 49ers’ next best options are to use the first of their two first round picks to pick up either a shutdown corner to complement Nate Clements or a pass-rushing defensive end to play opposite Justin Smith.

While Shawntae Spencer, Dre’ Bly, and Walt Harris are all quality corners that would help out tremendously next season if they all return, none of them is a pure difference maker. Considering that Clements doesn’t have that top-end speed, drafting a tall and speedy corner to play that No. 2 corner spot would solidify a secondary that struggled at times this season.

If that type of corner isn’t available, then San Francisco should go after a defensive end who can rush the quarterback. The trio of pass rushing outside linebackers in Parys Haralson, Manny Lawson, and Ahmad Brooks is a solid core, but when it comes to rushing the passer, the only defensive lineman on the roster who generates any consistent pressure is Smith.

Aubrayo Franklin, Ray McDonald, and Isaac Sopoaga are all good against the run, but the 49ers need more than just one-dimensional defensive linemen. They need someone who can help generate a pass rush. If only they could clone Justin Smith. But someone at least close to that caliber or even more talented than Smith is a necessary pickup in either the draft or free agency.

Right tackle, corner, and defensive end are the three big needs. Darn, weren’t those the same three needs last year? Looking back on it, those were (more or less) the same big needs.

Well, this offseason they are still holes needing to be filled, and while the 49ers have two first round picks, at least one of those holes should be filled in the first round.

However, for as many needs as the 49ers have, there is always the argument of grabbing the best player available regardless of other needs. Case in point was the drafting of Michael Crabtree last year and what should have been the drafting of DeSean Jackson two years ago.

While wide receiver was in fact a need in both the ’08 and ’09 drafts (more so in the ’08 draft), there were bigger needs in other areas.

In 2008, the 49ers felt that drafting a player at a position of the biggest need was the way to go. Last year, they felt that drafting the best talent available regardless of need was the best route.

Clearly, drafting Crabtree (despite his holdout) was the better choice than drafting Kentwan Balmer over DeSean Jackson.

The 49ers need to use more of this thought process when using their two first round selections. If a player with the talents of a Jahvid Best falls in their laps in the middle of the first round, they need to jump on that scenario.

Let’s face it, you can never have enough running backs, and right now the 49ers have Frank Gore and nobody else. Could Glen Coffee develop and get better? Sure he can; 2009 was his rookie year, and he deserves time to get better. But Coffee is no Jahvid Best, not by a long shot.

Ignoring any of the negatives that may come with Best (there were negatives with Jackson as well), his potential upside is so high that it is worth taking a shot on because he can fill the void of a speed back to complement Gore as well as the void at punt/kick returner.

Look at the best teams in the league and their offenses—almost all of them have a couple of guys who can run the ball. Philadelphia has always had a solid backup to Brian Westbrook, the New Orleans Saints have Reggie Bush, Mike Bell, and Pierre Thomas, the New England Patriots have Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and Fred Taylor, and lastly, the New York Giants have Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.

I almost forgot—the San Diego Chargers with LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles and the Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor also have two backs who can get the job done.

Best and Gore in the backfield? Crabtree and Davis in the passing game? Talk about weapons that Alex Smith can benefit from.

Drafting the top talent available with one of their first round picks just might be the way to go depending who is available when the 49ers are on the clock.

While one of the first round picks the 49ers have should go to a right tackle (if the right one is available) and the rest of the 49ers’ draft should be offensive line-heavy, one of the two picks should be used elsewhere.

For every Alan Faneca, Steve Hutchinson, and Walter Jones offensive lineman who was drafted in the first round, there is a Jeff Saturday, Eugene Amano, and Jason Peters who is either drafted in the late rounds or not even drafted at all.

Offensive linemen can be found more frequently in later rounds of the draft, but playmakers like Jahvid Best rarely fall past the first round.

Either way, let’s hope the 49ers use their first round picks wisely and fill two different holes with their selections.

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San Francisco 49ers: Why Alex Smith is Not a Super Bowl Caliber Quarterback

Published: December 28, 2009

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“And Young is back to throw, he’s going deep for Jerry, he caught it! He’s gone! Touchdown 49ers!! After just a minute and 24 seconds, touchdown pass to Jerry Rice!”

More or less, those are the words of former long-time voice of the 49ers, Joe Starkey, as he called Steve Young’s opening touchdown pass to Jerry Rice in Super Bowl XXIX.

Young was perfect in that game, throwing for a record six touchdown passes on the game’s biggest stage.

What did Alex Smith do yesterday against a 2-12 Lions team? His lone touchdown pass came on a play where he shouldn’t have even thrown the ball.

While the quarterbacking statistics look more than solid from the current 49er QB yesterday: 20-31 passing for 230 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions for a passer rating of 97.5, Smith left much to be desired in the hopes of the 49er faithful.

It wasn’t just the numerous overthrown balls, under-thrown balls, four tipped balls at the line of scrimmage, but even the plays he was able to complete made you scratch your head and say, “What the hell was that?”

After being named the starter for next season earlier in the week, Smith came out and laid a dud of a performance in the first half against a Detroit Lions team that was ripe for a shellacking by the 49ers offense.

Detroit is ranked dead last in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, with 265.4 yards allowed per game and 31 touchdowns allowed through the air.

Yet Smith managed just 230 yards and only a single touchdown pass on a play that he should have run for the touchdown rather than risk the throw? Yiiiiiikes.

Of course, if Smith had just thrown the ball down the Lions throat and made the big play in the first half, his nearly bone-headed touchdown pass in the second half would have been his second of the game.

After a perfect play fake late in the first quarter, Smith had a streaking Michael Crabtree wide open for what should have been a touchdown. But the 49er quarterback severely under-threw the ball, forcing Crabtree to slow down and adjust to make the catch. Crabtree was then stopped short of the end zone, and the drive ended in a field goal instead of a touchdown.

Fifty yard-passes are nice, but 60-yard touchdowns are better. According to Mark Purdy’s article in the San Jose Mercury News today, Smith was apparently afraid of an overthrow, telling Purdy “It’s like a layup—you don’t want to necessarily make that too difficult on [Crabtree].”

Is this the guy the 49ers want leading their football team? A quarterback who is so worried about an overthrow that he under-throws his receiver on purpose? A quarterback who (to borrow Smith’s basketball analogy) would ignore a wide open three-point opportunity to win the game by risking another pass?

As former Jets head coach and current ESPN analyst Herm Edwards says, “You play to win the game. Hello?!? You play to win the game!”

In this instance, how can Smith even contemplate not airing the ball out and attempting to fit it into Crabtree, perfectly in stride? If the ball indeed drops incomplete, what is the problem? You are still playing the Lions, the game is as close to an automatic win that you can get in the NFL (although I say that because I do believe in any given Sunday).

Even when Smith had nothing to lose, he still played it safe. An attribute nobody should want in their starting quarterback.

Now this poor throw on Crabtree’s 50-yard gain got me thinking: When have we seen Smith ever hit a receiver perfectly in stride? How many times this season have we seen a receiver not have to adjust his route to make the catch? Not often.

On most of those deep middle passes to Vernon Davis, the 49er tight-end has had to slow down and jump up for the ball. The majority of Crabtree’s catches have been extremely athletic plays by the rookie; when he snatches the ball either from over his head or way out in front of his body, and Delanie Walker usually has to reach behind him to make the catch.

Smith almost never hits a receiver perfectly in stride, and watching Sunday night football last night made me wish the 49ers had Tony Romo as their quarterback.

Granted, the Dallas Cowboys quarterback has struggled during the postseason so far in his career, but he made one perfect pass last night that made me think, “Wow, that was Steve Young/Joe Montana-like.”

In the middle of the second quarter, Romo hit his tight-end Jason Witten about 25 yards down field on a crossing pattern. The safety was right on Witten’s heels, but the throw was on the money: a perfect spiral that hit Witten right between eight and two on his jersey, and he didn’t have to break stride at all. With such an amazingly accurate throw, Witten was able to scamper another 44 yards down inside the Redskins five yard line before being tackled.

While Romo has had his fair share of inconsistencies throughout his career, it is plays like this one that show he has the ability to overcome his mistakes and should eventually enjoy playoff success.

However, with Smith, we very rarely—if ever—see plays of this fashion that make us fans think, “Okay, he can be the guy,” and because of that, it has become clear that Smith is not the guy to lead the 49ers to their sixth Super Bowl title.

Am I saying that Smith is terrible? No, I’m not. Could he lead the 49ers to the playoffs? Sure he could, but he won’t be able to succeed when he gets there, because he doesn’t play at the same speed as everyone else on the field. Five years into his career, and he is still a step behind on almost every throw.

For those of you here on B/R who think I have a vendetta against the 49er quarterback, let me state that I agree with Smith being the quarterback next season. The 49ers have a goal to get back to the playoffs, and Smith gives them the best chance. He is a very capable quarterback.

But to win championships, teams need a quarterback who is more than just “capable.” They need a quarterback that is “unstoppable” when he’s on his game. Young/Montana/Favre/Elway/Roethlisberger/Manning/Brady/Brees/Warner/McNair/Aikman/Marino/Simms etc., are all guys who fit this bill.

Over 90 percent of Super Bowl-caliber teams have quarterbacks who can beat the best of the best when it matters most. For every Trent Dilfer who wins a Super Bowl, there are at least three other Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks who had the talent to dominate opposing defenses.

Alex Smith doesn’t show this ability in the slightest. And I wouldn’t have any basis for writing this article if it wasn’t for his two bone-headed plays on Sunday. The first of which was the aforementioned under-thrown ball to Crabtree, and the second was his lone touchdown to Davis.

After another excellent play fake, Smith had the entire right-half of the end zone wide open to run the ball in for the score. Had he sprinted to the corner right away, he could have walked into the end zone once he reached the goal-line.

However, Smith took an odd circular route to the corner and the linebacker closed in on him. As he approached the corner, Smith still could have scored, albeit with some contact, had he dove into the end zone. But instead, he pulled up short and risked floating a pass to Davis in the back corner for the touchdown.

The stupidity of the play was twofold: Not only did Smith risk another batted ball or incomplete pass that should have been a touchdown, but the replays showed that 99.99 percent of his body was past the line of scrimmage. Detroit challenged the play, and it very easily could have been reversed, but the refs claimed irrefutable evidence (although almost everyone watching thought that it was going to be overturned).

Regardless of the ref’s call, it was clear Smith was not thinking about where he was on the field, and that is simply inexcusable. I mean what was going on? Did Smith have Davis on his fantasy team or what? There was no reason to risk a throw when he could have simply run the ball in for the score untouched.

When have you seen any other respectable starting quarterback make as odd looking of a play as that?

The 49ers forced another six turnovers against the Lions on Sunday and the offense managed just 20 points. Two weeks ago against Arizona they forced seven turnovers and the offense managed only 24 points. Good quarterbacks turn these high amount of turnovers into absolute blowout victories for their team.

Smith, on the other hand, led his team to just five touchdown drives in those two games, even with his defense forcing 13 turnovers to his benefit. Not exactly the points of turnovers that one would expect from a good quarterback.

Supporters of the first round pick may once again pull out the five offensive coordinators in five years defense, but not having continuity in the offense doesn’t excuse a quarterback from having a poor football mentality.

Five different coordinators in his first five seasons means missing a pass because of miscommunication, not understanding the complexity of certain plays, or not having chemistry with teammates. But it has no affect on a quarterback making the wrong assumption when the right play to make is so incredibly obvious.

If Smith can’t impress the fan base against the Lions, how is he going to impress the fanbase if he ever gets to the playoffs?

The 49ers finally have a quarterback who has the ability to get them to the postseason, but don’t bet on them winning if he ever manages to get them there.

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San Francisco 49ers Get it Wrong Again

Published: December 24, 2009

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Let’s start from the top, shall we?

49ers acting owner and team president Jed York has re-iterated his faith for both GM Scot McCloughan and head coach Mike Singletary.

Mike Singletary in turn as re-iterated his faith in Alex Smith by naming him the starting quarterback for next season. By doing so, Singletary has made it almost a must to start Smith the final two games of the season.

How would it look if he named Smith the starter for next year and then gave rookie Nate Davis the next two starts? People would wonder just what in the world is going on? Is Singletary saying one thing and thinking another?

Therefore, after stating that Smith will be the 2010 starter, Singletary has to go with him in the next two games.

Unfortunately, this move also makes absolute zero sense and simply because of the mediocrity of the opponents.

There is nothing, let me repeat, nothing that Alex Smith can accomplish in the final two games that would be of the positive variety.

Unlike recent seasons when the 49ers were able to play spoiler against playoff contending teams in the last couple weeks, this year they have no such opportunity.

The remaining two teams on the schedule are the 2-12 Detroit Lions and 1-13 St. Louis Rams, whose lone victory came over Detroit.

Case in point, the 49ers are facing two teams that have a combined winning percentage of .074 against the rest of the league. It is no question that Shaun Hill, much less Alex Smith could throw for 350 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions against these lowly franchises.

Now, Singletary is claiming that he wants to see every “ounce” of what Smith can give these final two weeks but he doesn’t realize that there is nothing his veteran quarterback can prove against such lousy teams.

Last week’s game in Philadelphia was Smith’s final chance this season to prove he could rise to the occasion and play better than expected. But no matter how well he plays during these remaining two games, everyone will say “whatever, it was the Lions and the Rams, the retired Trent Dilfer could have done that.”

Okay, maybe not that last part about Dilfer, but you get what I’m saying.

Since the 49ers aren’t able to play spoiler, there is nothing the veteran starters can gain from playing these last two games. They can only be lost to injury and for veterans like Takeo Spikes and Michael Lewis, any more injury trouble could prohibit them from playing at the same level next season.

But, there is one good thing that could come from playing such inferior opponents in the final two weeks.

They could get rookie quarterback Nate Davis some experience.

Like I’ve said, Alex Smith has nothing to prove in these last two games, so he has absolutely no need to start. However, Davis has yet to play during his rookie season and could benefit from the playing time.

Remember, Smith got his first start against the Indianapolis Colts back in 2005. Don’t you think he would have loved to get his first action against the Lions or Rams?

I think so.

Starting Davis these last two weeks makes all too much sense, but once again the 49ers have screwed it up by naming Smith the starter next season.

While Smith played well this year after taking over mid-way through the season for Shaun Hill, he still didn’t show fans that he had overcome the inconsistencies that plagued him in his first four years of his career.

Will he lead the 49ers to the playoffs next year? Who knows, maybe. But nothing he does in the final two weeks will raise the expectations for him next season.

But if Davis has any chance at performing well as the starter during next season or beyond, it is pivotal he get some game experience, no matter the opponent. Let him understand what it feels like to play a game from start to finish and go through any necessary growing pains or instant success that comes from playing his first career games.

The 49ers have absolutely nothing to lose in this situation and have a ton to gain with not only their rookie quarterback but the other young players who haven’t seen much playing time.

And not only that, but in terms of TV ratings, wouldn’t the 49er organization want as many 49er fans as possible tuning into these meaningless games?

Ask any 49er fan down the street and I can guarantee you each and every one of them will be more inclined to watch the final two games if they knew Nate Davis was starting at quarterback.

Simply said, not starting the rookie the final two weeks is just another blunder by the 49ers organization that will once again make fans question the management and coaching staff.

If only it could be the 1994 again.

 

PS. Look at the article photo. Skin tone aside, who does that big body, strong arm, No. 7 quarterback with gloves remind you of?

Give your responses to my question in the comment section.

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San Francisco 49ers Get it Wrong Again

Published: December 24, 2009

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Let’s start from the top, shall we?

49ers acting owner and team president Jed York has re-iterated his faith for both GM Scot McCloughan and head coach Mike Singletary.

Mike Singletary in turn as re-iterated his faith in Alex Smith by naming him the starting quarterback for next season. By doing so, Singletary has made it almost a must to start Smith the final two games of the season.

How would it look if he named Smith the starter for next year and then gave rookie Nate Davis the next two starts? People would wonder just what in the world is going on? Is Singletary saying one thing and thinking another?

Therefore, after stating that Smith will be the 2010 starter, Singletary has to go with him in the next two games.

Unfortunately, this move also makes absolute zero sense and simply because of the mediocrity of the opponents.

There is nothing, let me repeat, nothing that Alex Smith can accomplish in the final two games that would be of the positive variety.

Unlike recent seasons when the 49ers were able to play spoiler against playoff contending teams in the last couple weeks, this year they have no such opportunity.

The remaining two teams on the schedule are the 2-12 Detroit Lions and 1-13 St. Louis Rams, whose lone victory came over Detroit.

Case in point, the 49ers are facing two teams that have a combined winning percentage of .074 against the rest of the league. It is no question that Shaun Hill, much less Alex Smith could throw for 350 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions against these lowly franchises.

Now, Singletary is claiming that he wants to see every “ounce” of what Smith can give these final two weeks but he doesn’t realize that there is nothing his veteran quarterback can prove against such lousy teams.

Last week’s game in Philadelphia was Smith’s final chance this season to prove he could rise to the occasion and play better than expected. But no matter how well he plays during these remaining two games, everyone will say “whatever, it was the Lions and the Rams, the retired Trent Dilfer could have done that.”

Okay, maybe not that last part about Dilfer, but you get what I’m saying.

Since the 49ers aren’t able to play spoiler, there is nothing the veteran starters can gain from playing these last two games. They can only be lost to injury and for veterans like Takeo Spikes and Michael Lewis, any more injury trouble could prohibit them from playing at the same level next season.

But, there is one good thing that could come from playing such inferior opponents in the final two weeks.

They could get rookie quarterback Nate Davis some experience.

Like I’ve said, Alex Smith has nothing to prove in these last two games, so he has absolutely no need to start. However, Davis has yet to play during his rookie season and could benefit from the playing time.

Remember, Smith got his first start against the Indianapolis Colts back in 2005. Don’t you think he would have loved to get his first action against the Lions or Rams?

I think so.

Starting Davis these last two weeks makes all too much sense, but once again the 49ers have screwed it up by naming Smith the starter next season.

While Smith played well this year after taking over mid-way through the season for Shaun Hill, he still didn’t show fans that he had overcome the inconsistencies that plagued him in his first four years of his career.

Will he lead the 49ers to the playoffs next year? Who knows, maybe. But nothing he does in the final two weeks will raise the expectations for him next season.

But if Davis has any chance at performing well as the starter during next season or beyond, it is pivotal he get some game experience, no matter the opponent. Let him understand what it feels like to play a game from start to finish and go through any necessary growing pains or instant success that comes from playing his first career games.

The 49ers have absolutely nothing to lose in this situation and have a ton to gain with not only their rookie quarterback but the other young players who haven’t seen much playing time.

And not only that, but in terms of TV ratings, wouldn’t the 49er organization want as many 49er fans as possible tuning into these meaningless games?

Ask any 49er fan down the street and I can guarantee you each and every one of them will be more inclined to watch the final two games if they knew Nate Davis was starting at quarterback.

Simply said, not starting the rookie the final two weeks is just another blunder by the 49ers organization that will once again make fans question the management and coaching staff.

If only it could be the 1994 again.

 

PS. Look at the article photo. Skin tone aside, who does that big body, strong arm, No. 7 quarterback with gloves remind you of?

Give your responses to my question in the comment section.

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San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith’s Future to be Determined in Philly

Published: December 17, 2009

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When the San Francisco 49ers step foot between the white lines at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday, they will be facing the biggest test the team has had in over five years.

Back in 2005, the 49ers drafted Alex Smith with the No. 1 overall pick with the hope he would become their franchise quarterback. The reason the 49ers had the highest selection in the ’05 draft was because the 2004 squad finished with a miserable 2-14 record.

Prior to that miserable 2004 team was a hit-and-miss 2003 49er squad that finished a disappointing 7-9. That year was the last time the 49ers held a mark as high as 6-7 through week 14.

Until this season.

Like in 2003, this current bunch of 6-7 49ers still have playoff hopes on the line and can ill afford to lose another game.

Therefore, it will be exactly six years and three days come Sunday since the 49ers last played a meaningful game this deep in the season.

While the 2003 49ers fell just three points short against the Bengals in their attempt to reach the .500 mark, quarterback Jeff Garcia went 26-33 for 343 yards, threw for two touchdowns, zero interceptions and amassed a quarterback rating of 130.3. Not to mention he ran the ball four times for 51 yards and a touchdown, his third of the game.

With the season on the line, Garcia couldn’t have played a better game. He put his best effort forth when his team needed him the most.

Now the 2009 Philadelphia Eagles pose a similar threat to current 49ers starter Alex Smith. While the opponent Smith faces is undoubtedly better than the 2003 Bengals, the situation remains the same.

The 49ers are facing a must-win game on the road against an East Coast opponent who can score points with the best offenses in the league.

Whether or not the 49ers can pull out the upset and win the game is a whole different story. What Smith needs to do is mimic the performance Garcia gave back in 2003, regardless of whether or not his team wins the game.

As we all know, the quarterback position in football is the most important position of any team sport in the world.

Currently the 49ers have a quarterback who could follow one of two paths. Smith could follow in the direction of a Jay Cutler and be that flashy and inconsistent quarterback or he could follow in the footsteps of an Eli Manning and blossom into the quarterback who wins the big game.

To be fair, in the near future Smith will be the 49ers quarterback regardless of the remaining three games. He is clearly the best they have at the position and San Francisco almost assuredly won’t use another high draft choice on a quarterback and free agent options will be limited.

But if Smith doesn’t give a Pro Bowl-caliber performance on Sunday, his fate will be sealed.

If he can’t rise to the occasion and pick apart a highly regarded secondary, then how will he ever be the quarterback who leads San Francisco to their sixth Super Bowl championship?

When it comes to quarterbacking in the NFL, the best of the best simply dominate any defense that comes before them. The Montanas, the Youngs, the Bradys, the Mannings, the Favres, the Aikmans, the Elways, the Warners, the Marinos, and the Brees of the world just know how to be at the top of their game even when facing the most dominant defenses.

In Smith’s case, we have seen glimpses of him being Manning-like, but we have also seen him be Cutler-esque with the interceptions. We have seen both of these versions of Smith in the same game and we have seen games where only the Cutler version shows up.

But we have yet to see whether the Manning-like version can show up for an entire game against a quality opponent.

Fans can say that Smith’s 232-yard, two touchdown performance against Jacksonville was impressive, but in honesty it did nothing to knock anyone’s socks off. Nobody has ever said “wow” and “Alex Smith” in the same sentence when speaking positively of the former No. 1 pick since he was drafted back in 2005.

But Sunday’s game in Philadelphia is Smith’s chance to prove himself and make fans say “wow, did Alex Smith just play at the same level as Donovan McNabb?”

If Smith can put together a dominant quarterbacking performance in a game where his team needs him to play at his highest level, he will have demonstrated his capability to win Super Bowls.

However, if Smith gives another one of those mediocre performances like he did last week against Arizona (19-of-35, 144 yards, two TDs, two INTs, 59.7 rating) he will have demonstrated that he is simply not a championship-caliber quarterback.

Now one way or another, Smith will return as the 49er starter next season. But if he doesn’t give his best performance against the Eagles on Sunday, next season will be more of the same.

For every game he plays well, he will raise the hopes of the fanbase, but for everyone of those games there will be a game where his play makes fans want to shoot themselves in the foot.

All that is left is for Smith to prove whether or not he is a big game quarterback.

 

Writer’s Note: Please tune into 1220am this Sunday at 8pm for the Sports Ramble radio show. Host Chetan Chaudhari talks Bay Area sports. Best place to listen is online at kdow.biz

 

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San Francisco 49ers: Wild Card Still a Major Possibility

Published: December 15, 2009

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While the San Francisco 49ers still need a lot of matchups to go their way if they want to make the playoffs, the remaining schedules of competing wild-card teams are much tougher than that of the division-leading Cardinals.

Before delving into playoff scenarios, lets get one thing straight: The 49ers need to win out. If they only manage to post an 8-8 record, their chances decrease immensely. But there is a scenario where even a .500 49ers team make the dance.

However, a win in Philadelphia this week and the chances the 49ers win out will sky rocket with the final two games at home against the Detroit Lions and on the road to visit the St. Louis Rams. Going 9-7 would give San Francisco a much better shot at the postseason.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, overtaking Arizona for the division requires the Cardinals to lose two of their final three games, and the NFC West leaders get to play the same two lousy teams as the 49ers in the Lions and the Rams.

Essentially, even if the 49ers win out, they need either a Rams or Lions win over Arizona, and then a Green Bay win over Arizona in the season finale.

Granted the necessities to win the division are much less complex, winning the final wild-card spot might be more likely.

For example, the current wild-card holders are the Green Bay Packers (9-4) and the Dallas Cowboys (8-5).

The following teams are still “in the hunt”: New York Giants (7-6), Atlanta Falcons (6-7) and the 49ers (6-7).

Green Bay is almost assuredly got a wild-card spot wrapped up and since they beat the 49ers, even if they were to lose out, they hold the tiebreaker over San Francisco.

Now that final spot held down by the 8-5 Cowboys has four teams in contention, one of which being the 49ers.

Cowboys (8-5)

Giants (7-6)

Falcons (6-7)

49ers (6-7)

One of those four teams is going to win the sixth and final playoff seed this season.

Now why is it so important for the 49ers to win out? The final NFC wild-card position could still be earned by a team finishing 8-8. It’s unlikely, but still a possibility. 

The standings are still to the point where the 49ers could win the wildcard at 8-8, but they would need the Falcons to lose two out of three against the Jets, Bills and Bucs. Plus, they would need the Giants to lose two of their last three games against the Panthers, Redskins and Vikings. Not to mention, the Cowboys losing all three of their remaining games against the Saints, Redskins and Eagles.

For those of you paying attention, the 49ers have the tiebreaker—with the best record inside the NFC—over all these teams.

If the aforementioned scenario were to yield true, the following would occur:

49ers: 8-8, conference record 7-5

Cowboys: 8-8, conference record 6-6

Giants: 8-8, conference record 6-6

Falcons: 7-9

Before anyone gawks at this scenario, let me just remind you the possibilities involved.

The Cowboys have to play in New Orleans against the 13-0 Saints, in Washington against a division opponent in the Redskins (who have nothing to lose), and then meet the division-leading Eagles at home. There is a significant possibility the Cowboys lose all three of these games.

The Giants remaining games are also at Washington (divisional games can go either way), at home against the Panthers, who are a very dangerous team with nothing to lose, and then at the Minnesota Vikings. It’s a very possible that the G-Men lose two of three down the stretch.

And finally the Atlanta Falcons have to play at the Jets, home against the Bills and at the Bucs. The New York J! E! T! S! JETS JETS JETS have won three games in a row and beating the Falcons is a likely outcome. However, the Falcons losing to either the Bills or Bucs seems like a long shot. But as the phrase goes “any given Sunday.”

So, it is feasible that the 49ers lose to the Eagles and still win the wildcard.

However, beating the Eagles and finishing 9-7 gives the 49ers a much better chance at the matchups they need going their way.

Just like the first scenario, the 49ers have the tie-breaking conference record against teams they didn’t play this season.

The 9-7 49ers need the following to happen:

Cowboys lose two of three against the Saints, Redskins and Eagles.

Giants lose one of three against Redskins, Panthers, Vikings.

Falcons lose one of three against Jets, Bills, Bucs.

Now the kicker in this scenario is that the Falcons have the head-to-head tie-breaker over the 49ers via their week five victory in San Francisco. This means that if both the 49ers and Falcons win out and finish 9-7, the Falcons would make the playoffs.

But if the Falcons lose just one of their three remaining, and the 49ers win all three of their games, the 49ers would have the better record.

If this scenario goes down, the following final standings would develop in the fight for the sixth seed:

49ers: 9-7, conference record 8-4

Cowboys: 9-7, conference record 7-5

Giants: 9-7, conference record 7-5

Falcons: 8-8

Of course, these scenarios only play out if the 49ers focus on winning their games and forget about anybody else. In fact, if any 49er player is analyzing these possibilities he should run 200 extra sprints at practice because only fans are allowed to speculate.

San Francisco just needs to worry about taking care of their business and nothing else. If they can do that and win their remaining three games, they have a decent shot at sneaking into the playoffs.

While it may be considered an outside shot, MUCH WEIRDER things have happened.

Remember the Chiefs made the playoffs a couple years back? They needed a lot more to go their way then the 49ers need this year.

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Advice for Jed York: Make Mike Holmgren 49ers GM

Published: December 14, 2009

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The San Francisco 49ers finally have a head coach, finally have a capable quarterback, and finally have defensive stars to build around.

First off, the head coaching spot has been solidified by Mike Singletary. While his game-management isn’t quite where it needs to be, his intimidating presence and willingness to alter the team philosophy due to player personnel are positive signs moving forward.

Unlike any other coach in the league, Singletary has an innate ability to get the very best out of his players. As the 49er coach learns on the job, the game-managing will improve and the true mentality of his team will develop.

Secondly, as much as I have criticized one Alex Smith over the years (even blaming him on my facebook for last week’s loss), the former No. 1 pick seems to have hit a comfort zone.

In six-and-a-half games this season, Smith has thrown for 1,577 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Just to put those numbers in perspective, the 49er quarterback would put up 3,880 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions for a full season at his current pace.

The 49ers may not be winning as of late, but the offensive line has been below average at best and the defense hasn’t been able to stop the pass all season. That being the case, it is extremely difficult to blame the quarterback for the overall record.

Now while the defense needs an improved pass rush and secondary help, middle linebacker Patrick Willis is already a perennial Pro Bowler in just his third season. Combined with defensive-end Justin Smith, up and coming free safety Dashon Goldson, and corner back Nate Clements, San Francisco has some play makers on defense.

The 49ers may be ranked amongst the bottom of the league in defending the pass, but they are only a couple of tweaks away from having a playoff caliber defense.

But despite having all these parts of a successful football team, why are the 49ers still stuck in mediocrity?

While San Francisco has the integral parts of a championship caliber football team, they are missing the right man to steer the ship. They are missing a true captain. GM Scot McCloughan is not the man for that job.

Although he has only been officially the GM for less than two years, McCloughan has been vice president of player personnel since 2005.

While the 49ers have drafted Alex Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, and Michael Crabtree in that time frame, the overall drafts over that span have not produced any depth.

Especially considering drafting Davis, Willis, and Crabtree were essentially no-brainers, it boils down to rounds two through seven not producing enough talent on the field.

Remember two years ago when the 49ers drafted Kentwan Balmer and Chilo Rachal with their first two picks when they could have drafted Philadelphia’s star wide-out DeSean Jackson?

What in the world was McCloughan thinking? Kentwan Balmer? Seriously? San Francisco was desperate for play-maker and with Bay Area fans familiar with Jackson’s talents while playing at Berkley, it was only a perfect match.

With a late first round pick, the 49ers had a chance to nab the dynamic star. Instead they passed up on him and selected Balmer, a defensive-end from North Carolina. But no need to worry, the 49ers could still draft Jackson with their second round pick.

Except they drafted an offensive guard instead. 

It is simply inexcusable to pass up on such an obvious talent two different times in the same draft. 

Can I guarantee that Mike Holmgren would have drafted Jackson had he been 49er GM at the time? No, it would be impossible to make that claim.

But Holmgren is a football mind, he knows how to evaluate talent, and assess his team’s needs. He turned Matt Hasselbeck into a championship caliber quarterback he is today. Holmgren groomed the current Seahawks quarterback as a backup to Brett Favre and then when Holmgren took over in Seattle he brought Hasselbeck with him.

Simply said, Holmgren knows talent and knows how to run a successful franchise.

Who is Scot McCloughan exactly? Apparently he is a former minor league baseball player for the Toronto Blue Jays organization.

While McCloughan was playing minor league ball, Holmgren was the head coach of the Green Bay Packers, where he eventually won a Super Bowl in 1996.

But before Holmgren was a head coach with the Packers, he was part of the late Bill Walsh’s coaching tree which also features fellow Super Bowl winning coaches like Mike Shanahan and Jon Gruden.

From 1986-88 Holmgren served as San Francisco’s quarterbacks coach before taking over as offensive coordinator for the following three seasons. During the six years as an assistant with the 49ers, Holmgren was apart of two Super Bowl champion teams and helped develop two hall of fame quarterbacks in Joe Montana and Steve Young.

Holmgren has been coaching football for nearly 40 years before stepping down as coach of the Seahawks after last season.

Familiar to both 49er fans and the entire NFL, Holmgren is a prominent figure in football, and bringing him back to the franchise where he began his NFL coaching career could be the finishing touches on an amazing career.

The 49ers need a face, they need a leader. Granted Scot McCloughan isn’t the worst talent evaluator, but he is simply a name.

San Francisco need more than a name, they need a proven football figure who can get the job done.

Not only would Holmgren make smart moves through the draft and free-agency, but he will also help Singletary improve as a coach and help Alex Smith develop at quarterback.

It would only be fitting if one of the key figures from the 49er glory days helped return the franchise to that prominence.

Holmgren has been confirmed to want back in the NFL, and hopefully Jed York will realize the best place for him is where it all began.

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A Forgotten Man: Why Walt Harris’ Absence Looms Large for the 49ers

Published: December 11, 2009

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When the 49ers’ veteran cornerback Walt Harris tore his ACL during OTAs (organized team activities) over the offseason, most media members and Niner fans hardly even blinked.

It appeared to be a Bay Area-wide consensus that losing a then 34-year-old cornerback wasn’t going to hurt the 49ers’ chances of achieving their goal of going to the postseason.

However, what if it was Harris on the field instead of Mark Roman on that final play in Minnesota? When Brett Favre struck a dagger into the hearts of Niner fans on the essentially the game’s final play (like he seemingly always does against San Francisco), what if there was another defensive playmaker out on the field?

The 49ers are currently 5-7 after their latest disappointing loss, but fans can only imagine how different the season would have been if the Red and Gold had started out 4-0 instead of 3-1.

Am I saying that Favre couldn’t have made that miraculous throw with Harris on the field? No, absolutely not. Brett Favre is Brett Favre—but you can bet that the coverage would have been much tighter with another Pro Bowl defensive back flying around out there.

While some may argue that Harris didn’t perform to the level he did in his first year with San Francisco in his most recent two seasons, his overall performance hasn’t deteriorated in the slightest.

In the 2008-09 season, Harris’ 44 solo tackles, 54 total tackles, three interceptions, and 14 passes defended were on par with his career single-season averages. While he may have lost a step since 2006, when he was named to the Pro Bowl, his savvy veteran presence was still a pivotal piece of the 49er secondary.

As all 49er followers have learned, Dre’ Bly may be a veteran, but he is far from savvy with his high-stepping at his own 30-yard line and subsequently fumbling the ball away.

Therefore, other than Nate Clements (who also has been injured for a large portion of the season), the 49ers were thin when it came to proven cornerbacks. Bly, Shawntae Spencer, Tarell Brown, Keith Smith, and Marcus Hudson have left much to be desired.

With a healthy Harris in the lineup, each of these less talented corners could have been used in much more appropriate situations rather than thrust into extra playing time.

Considering that six of the seven 49ers losses have come by seven points or less, four by four points or less, and three by just a field goal, one defensive stop could have been the difference between a win or a loss in almost all of those games.

With the 49ers secondary being ranked 27th in the league in passing yards allowed, a few more passes knocked away by the corners and perhaps that 250 yards per game becomes 225 yards.

By allowing just 25 fewer yards per game, the 49ers defense would be ranked 20th against the pass instead of 27th.

In their most recent defeat at the hands of the lowly Seattle Seahawks, the play that sealed the game was a 32-yard downfield pass to rookie Deon Butler.

The 49ers defender covering the rookie wideout was none other than Keith Smith, who didn’t even turn to locate the football. A veteran of 73 NFL games got beat downfield by a rookie in the most crucial situation and didn’t even know the ball was coming in his direction. Simply, inexcusable poor execution in coverage on that play.

Now regardless of injury to the top 49er corners, Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck may have still made a game-winning throw. But if Walt Harris is out there in that situation, you can be guaranteed that a better effort would have been given on such a pivotal play.

Granted, the secondary isn’t the only area of the 49ers that is in clear need of work. They still deserve an immense amount of wrath from Mike Singletary and the rest of the coaching staff.

While an improved pass rush and better play from the offensive line could have also changed the course of action in many of the 49er losses, that shouldn’t let the secondary off the hook.

Poor tackling from the secondary has been just as big of a reason for the total passing yards against as the lack of a pass rush.

Both Clements and Harris are excellent tacklers, and combined between the two of them, San Francisco has had to deal with 17 man games lost.

Take the top two corners on any team and limit them to just seven games out of a possible 32 (16 possible each, if healthy), and that team will struggle against the pass.

If only Harris had skipped that OTA where he suffered a season-ending ACL injury, then maybe the 49ers would still have a realistic shot at the postseason. But showing up to every meeting and every practice, even during the offseason, is what makes Harris that savvy veteran leader.

Unfortunately, the 49ers have been lacking that presence at the cornerback spot all season, and it might just have prevented them from making the playoffs.

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