Disecting Dallas: A Good Example of What’s Wrong in Carolina

The Carolina Panthers are 0-3 after suffering defeat to the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.  It’s almost comical how message boards and pundits have reacted.  Those who hate the quarterback blame Jake Delhomme and his two interceptions for the loss.  Those who are disappointed with Ron Meeks blame the defense.  It’s easy to point fingers at Julius Peppers, who earned his million dollars with a single tackle.  But what really went wrong?

The first half reflected a game plan to beat the Cowboys.  Carolina ran nine rushing plays and 17 passing, surrendering a sack.  That’s not exactly Panther football, but in the end they got a touchdown lead over the Cowboys.  Dallas, incidentally, ran 14 times and passed 20 in the first half in a more balanced attack that was in keeping with their offensive style.

By the end of the game the Panthers had run 14 rushing plays and 38 passing plays.  That means that after the half Carolina attempted just five rushes against 21 passes.  Dallas, on the other hand, finished with 27 designed rushing plays and 40 passing plays.  After the half they ran 13 times and rushed 20.  They stayed consistent with their game plan, while Carolina panicked.

To be fair, 11 of Carolina’s passes came after Dallas took a 21-7 lead.  But take those away and from the time the score was 7-0 Panthers through 7-3 and 7-10 and 7-13, Carolina ran five times and passed 10.  That’s an unexpected ratio for the Panthers.

Jake Delhomme played well.  Detractors will point to his two interceptions on the stat line, but losing a bomb where your receiver doesn’t fight for it and getting picked on a quick slant where the receiver changes his route at the last second doesn’t necessarily reflect poorly on the quarterback.  He completed 66 percent of his passes and made some good decisions out there.  He made bad ones as well, but on balance he played as well as he has in a ton of previous Panther victories against better opponents.

The offensive line did a mediocre job opening holes in the running game, but they did ok in protection.  Given the number of times Carolina passed, Dallas was bound to break through a couple of times and did.  But overall the line did it’s job giving Delhomme time to throw.  The Panthers seemed to be ok in run blocking, but they really didn’t run enough to find out.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both played well, both in the running game and in protection.

The wide receivers had a rather poor game, Muhsin Muhammad in particular.  He blocked well, but drew a costly penalty on his touchdown run that was called back.  It can be argued that he allowed the long interception—he was bodied up against the cornerback and could have fought for the ball.  He also let several passes go through his fingers.  Steve Smith had a stupid mistake late on the interception thrown his way, but to be fair he was double-covered the entire game.  That’s when you expect the other receiver to step up, and it didn’t happen.

Dante Rosario was the only visible tight end in the game, and he was just as noticeable for his poor blocking as his catching.  He also let a few well thrown balls slip through his fingers, notably the first pass attempt of the second half on a short route in the flat.  That led directly to Carolina’s first three-and-out situation in the second half.

Dallas had a nice possession that ended in a field goal in their opening series of the second half.  On that drive they mixed up the pass and the run well, and the Panthers did a nice job keeping them out of the end zone.

The next offensive series started with a ten yard sack of Delhomme.  Then Williams ran for a yard before Jake threw an pass to Smitty that got 15 when they needed 19.  The Panthers had another three and out, this time with two passes and one rush.

Then Dallas started the defining drive of the game.  Special Teams gave the Cowboys a short field at their own 42.  Dallas ran five plays, four of them rushing, and they punched it in the end zone on a Tashard Choice run. 

And that was it.  After that score the Panthers simply fell apart on their play calls.  It was 10-7, which is nothing to be ashamed of on the road.  There was plenty of time to come back, and the Panthers had proven able to move the ball.  But from this point forward the game plan changed, and the run was all but abandoned.

On the Panther’s next possession, Jake Delhomme threw three times, completing two.  The second completion was a deep route to Muhammad for a touchdown, which got called back because of offensive pass interference.  So the Panthers threw again, completing a 14 yard pass to Kenny Moore when they needed 16.  Once more, Baker had to punt.

Then Dallas put together a nice drive, mixing short passes with runs, that stalled in field goal range.  The Carolina defense held up, and the Panthers were still within a touchdown.

This time the Panthers tried to run once, sending Jonathan Stewart up the middle.  He was dropped for a loss, and after two more passing attempts with one five yard completion the Panthers had to punt again.  Fortunately for Carolina, the Panther defense held on the next drive, forcing a Cowboy punt.

Then the Panthers gave the ball to DeAngelo Williams, who got a first down on a 12-yard run.  That was his last rushing attempt of the game.  Jake threw an incomplete pass, then crossed wires with Smith on a slant, and the Cowboys intercepted and ran to the end zone.

After that score the Panthers managed 11 more offensive plays in the game, with every one being a pass.

Carolina likes to promote itself as a running team.  They have a quarterback who’s proven time and again to be a capable game manager, but not someone around whom an offense can be built.  Carolina runs a lot of play action with two receiver sets, and generally use the tight ends to block.  It’s not a wide open, quarterback-friendly system like a West Coast offense, and most plays don’t offer a lot of options for the quarterback like the offenses in Dallas and New Orleans do. 

What the offense does offer is the ability to run or pass out of most sets.  It doesn’t give the defenses a lot of clues as to what’s coming, and it allows for multiple options on any given play.  It’s a good offense, especially for a team that wants to run the ball.

That offense is particularly well suited for a team with running backs of Williams’ and Stewart’s caliber.  Both of them are capable of turning in hundred yard games with regularity, and each has a style that complements the other.  The Panthers’ starting receivers are both strong blockers in the running game, which is good because outside of Steve Smith, Carolina really doesn’t have any solid receiving options.

So why would an offense that’s so obviously geared up to run instead choose to rely on the arm of an aging game manager quarterback?  In 2008 the Panthers ran an average of 32 times a game and passed 26 times.  That resulted in the league’s third best rushing attack and a 12-4 record.  This year the Panthers have passed 36 times a game and only rushed 24 times.  Not only have they flipped their winning formula on it’s head, they’ve actually increased the passing ratio!

It’s easy to blame the quarterback or the defense for a loss, but when your team’s identity makes such a fundamental shift from one season to the next, there has to be another element at work.  Had these two teams played in 2008, it’s likely that the Panthers would have tried to run all over Dallas.  They were averaging 153 yards per game on the ground.  But in 2009, the Panthers are barely getting more than 100 rushing yards per game.  This is despite having all of their 2008 starters back on offense. 

For some reason, Carolina has abandoned their run and at the same time, lost their mojo.

Somewhere in the Carolina locker room a game plan is being drawn up for the Washington Redskins.  Perhaps over the bye week the coaching staff will rediscover the skill they had in calling plays in 2008.  If they do, expect to see a lot more of Williams and Stewart, and hopefully a Panther victory.  If they don’t, don’t be surprised at an 0-4 start.

And if they continue to put more stock in Jake Delhomme’s arm than DeAngelo Williams’ legs, it’s going to be a long and disappointing season in Carolina.

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Preview: Miami Dolphins Vs. Carolina Panthers

This week the Panthers head south to play their second straight 2008 division winner that, coincidentally, they will also meet during the regular season.

The Miami Dolphins were one of the surprise teams of 2008, going from a 1-15 season in 2007 to an 11-5 first place finish in the AFC North and a playoff spot.  In doing so, they established the 12th best offense in the league and the 15th best defense.

On offense, they were effective both in the air and on the ground.  Their passing attack was 10th in the league, while their running game was 11th.

Defensively, however, they were a little more unbalanced.  They were 10th against the run, but as their 25th place ranking suggests, they were vulnerable to the pass.

Still, it was their defensive play that was credited with their turnaround.  The Dolphins switched to a 3-4 defense in 2008, and that unit should be even more successful in 2009 with a year in the system.

Strength of schedule was another factor in their success.  They played a rather easy schedule in 2008, and most of their wins came against teams with losing records.

In fact, although the point differential in their games was 345-317, they played in only three games where the outcome was decided by four points or less. When the matchups were favorable, they won and won big. When they weren’t, they got killed.

The passing defense figures to improve this year, as the Dolphins got a serious steal in Free Agency, landing free safety Gibril Wilson from the Raiders.  They also have a pro-bowl corner in Will Allen, but on the other side they’re still not set, although one of their draft picks is looking pretty good.

Rookie Sean Smith did very well as the other starting cornerback in Miami’s first preseason game against Jacksonville, more or less shutting down Torry Holt.  He should easily win the job over Eric Green, who got torched by the Jaguars’ second string receivers.

The Jacksonville game was really marked by defense, with a final score of 12-9.  The Jaguar starters managed just 18 yards in three series over the first quarter against Miami, who got 95 yards and a field goal in the same span.  The Dolphins also registered a sack against David Garrard.

Both teams were fairly sloppy, with 18 penalties and generally anemic offenses.  The Dolphins were able to move the ball through the air, but the running game was surprisingly absent.

That’s not a big concern for the Dolphins though. They know what they have in running backs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown.  Miami is more interested in how first round pick Pat Williams plays and in how their defense brings pressure while stuffing the run.

When the Panthers come to town, look for the Dolphins to show very little on offense.  Chad Pennington will throw several short passes for a high completion percentage, and will likely look for the tight ends as much as the receivers.  Miami’s tight ends scored twice as many touchdowns in 2008 as the receivers did.

Among the Dolphin receivers, word is that Ted Ginn, Jr. is finally looking like the number one wideout he was drafted to be.  He had two nice receptions and an end-around that showcased his speed against the Jaguars and will provide a stiff test for Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall.

Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will run with the starters, and Williams will likely stay in the game when Pat White takes over at cornerback.

White will be throwing more than he runs.  The Dolphins know what he can do there and want him to develop his arm better, particularly after his 2-7 effort against the Jaguars.  He’s a dynamic runner who will fit well in the wildcat package.

When the scrubs get in, it’s anyone’s guess as to what will happen.  Miami isn’t a roster packed with talent, but they do lead the league so far in bench players quitting the team.

Basically, the Dolphins don’t have many real stars, particularly on offense. But they have a group of capable players and can move the ball equally well on the air and on the ground.

On defense Miami will bring pressure much like the Giants did.  The difference is in where it comes from.  Miami runs the 3-4 offense, and their outside linebackers are very good. 

Pro Bowler Joey Portar lines up on one side while Mike Roth and Jason Taylor are on the other.  Against Jacksonville, Taylor spent as much time in the Jaguar backfield as David Garrard.

Rookie corner Sean Smith looks great, and the Panthers will have their hands full making plays in the passing game against the Dolphin corners, particularly in the face of the pressure they can bring.

The best way to beat that sort of pressure is with draws, screens, and quick slants.  However, those plays don’t occupy prominent places in the Panthers’ playbook, and given how vanilla Fox will want to play it, you shouldn’t expect to see them Saturday.

So look for another defensive struggle in Miami.  Williams will get his yards, but without Smith and with little incentive to win, the Panthers will likely play things close to the vest, both on offense and defense.

Miami will bend the Panther defense, but the Dolphins don’t have the playmakers required to break it.  They’re a good running team, but don’t have the power-style running attack that can expose the Carolina defensive line.

The first string probably won’t look any better than it did against the Giants.  But when the second and third stringers are on the field, the Panthers’ superior depth should be enough to make a difference on the final scoreboard. 

Prediction:  Carolina 17, Miami 10

Carolina Panthers: Davis’ Turn To Shine

Thomas Davis has high hopes for the 2009 season.  Recently on the Frank and Buck Show on Charlotte’s WFNZ-AM, he stated that anything less than being named an All-Pro this season would be a disappointment.

That’s a bold statement from a player that many fans called a bust after he struggled in his first two years in the NFL.

At the University of Georgia, Davis was feared throughout the SEC for his closing speed and ferocious tackles.  The 6’1″, 227 pound safety turned in a 4.43 at the combine after notching 173 tackles in three years with the Bulldogs.

The scouting report on Davis was ideal for the Panthers.  It said he made “a tremendous impact against the run … finds the ball … he’s an intimidating hitter who can blitz.”  For a run defense that needed help, he was just what the doctor ordered.

When he was drafted by the Panthers in the first round of the 2005 draft, he became an instant hit with fans for his attitude, which was summed up in his famous quote, “Get to the ball with bad intentions.”

But things quickly went south for him in his first year.  Davis was shuffled between Linebacker and Safety and never seemed to really catch on to either position.  He only earned one start and managed just over two tackles a game for a defense that was disappointing in general. 

Rather than providing a lift, Davis was used an example of things that went wrong for the Panthers on that side of the ball. Angry fans said he was a poor pick, pointing out that Davis’ scouting report also said that he could get beat in coverage and fell for the play-action too easily. 

To make matters worse, Derrick Johnson was lighting things up in Kansas City.  Johnson was a popular choice as an alternative to Davis, and he was picked by the Chiefs immediately after Davis was taken by the Panthers.

In the 2006 season the Panthers moved Thomas Davis to linebacker full time, and he responded with a decent, if not great year.  Playing on the strong side, Davis notched 71 tackles and 19 assists in 14 games.  He followed that up with a similar effort in 2007, making 72 tackles and 13 assists.  He looked good, but not great.

Then in 2008 he was moved to the weak side.  Playing without coverage responsibilities, he was able to fly to the ball and use his speed to greater advantage.  Davis increased his tackle total to 92, with 21 assists. 

In doing so, he became a favorite of many fans, who were both relieved and excited to see him begin living up to his draft billing.  Davis attained a status of that guy who’s the well-kept secret—unknown by fans in other divisions but respected and feared by coaching staffs around the league.

And 2009 should be the year where Thomas Davis becomes known on a national level.  Not only will he have a year of playing on the weak side under his belt, he also has a new defensive coordinator who schemes to his strengths and who has a reputation of developing great players at that position.

Ron Meeks preaches “swarming to the ball” and builds defenses that are more reactive.  Players who succeed in them are fast and instinctive, and race across the field to make plays.

To any Panthers fan the very concept of “swarming to the ball” seems to be designed with a player like Davis in mind.  But it’s not just the swarming concept that should have Davis fans excited.
In Meeks’ system, outside linebackers have always shone.  In Indianapolis his rosters included some impressive names, like Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Cato June and Freddy Keiaho.  Even more impressive is how all of them made their names playing in Meeks’ system.

This system comes with a scheme and alignments which should help Davis shine.

The 2009 Panthers will be without Ma’ake Kemoeatu, and look to be replacing him with a more traditional one-gap defensive linemen.  In doing so, the defensive line will be setting up in a traditional under-front scheme that relies on speed to close off gaps and herds opposing running backs to areas where support can be found.

How does that help the weakside linebacker?  Instead of a run-stuffing tackle closing two gaps and preventing runs up the middle, both defensive tackles will be shutting down a single gap and forcing the run to specific areas of the field.

In this scheme, the weakside linebacker is in a position to make a lot of plays.  He lines up behind the defensive tackle assigned to the “under” tackle position (Damione Lewis on the Panthers), and is well-protected from both the guard and tackle by the under tackle and defensive end on his side of the field.

The strong side linebacker has to deal with the tight end, while the middle linebacker must contend with either the right guard or the center.

If the Carolina nose tackle engages the center at all, Davis will be free to flow to the ball after ensuring that his own gap isn’t threatened. Beason and Diggs will be dealing with potential blocks from tight ends, offensive linemen, and the fullback. 

Simply put, Davis should be in position to make a lot of plays.

Another area of Meeks’ system that will come into play is the philosophy of the “turn back” or “spill” in run support. In Indianapolis, a defender taking on a block knew exactly where the help was and worked to turn or spill the running back in that direction.

Since the weakside linebacker is often unblocked in an under front, he’s frequently the help his teammates are looking for.  Again, Davis will be the beneficiary.

Davis has grown into his linebacker role well, and continues to mature not only as a player but as an athlete.  Earlier this year he ran a 4.2 in the 40, beating his combine time despite carrying 15 more pounds of muscle on his frame. 

He’s bigger, he’s faster, he still hits hard and with a sense of finality, and he’s still got that “get to the ball with bad intentions” attitude.

During training camp Davis has watched most of the action from the sidelines.  This has been a precautionary measure taken after a minor sprain to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his knee was suffered early in camp.

But that injury won’t keep him out of action for long.  He’ll be suiting up on opening day for sure, ready to step up as a leader of the Panthers defense.

And he won’t just be making tackles as usual. If past performance is any indicator of future results, between he and Meeks you can just see him taking that step from being very good to being outstanding.

This year, Thomas Davis will be getting to the Pro Bowl. With bad intentions, of course.

Carolina Panthers: Davis’ Turn To Shine

Thomas Davis has high hopes for the 2009 season.  Recently on the Frank and Buck Show on Charlotte’s WFNZ-AM, he stated that anything less than being named an All-Pro this season would be a disappointment.

That’s a bold statement from a player that many fans called a bust after he struggled in his first two years in the NFL.

At the University of Georgia, Davis was feared throughout the SEC for his closing speed and ferocious tackles.  The 6’1″, 227 pound safety turned in a 4.43 at the combine after notching 173 tackles in three years with the Bulldogs.

The scouting report on Davis was ideal for the Panthers.  It said he made “a tremendous impact against the run … finds the ball … he’s an intimidating hitter who can blitz.”  For a run defense that needed help, he was just what the doctor ordered.

When he was drafted by the Panthers in the first round of the 2005 draft, he became an instant hit with fans for his attitude, which was summed up in his famous quote, “Get to the ball with bad intentions.”

But things quickly went south for him in his first year.  Davis was shuffled between Linebacker and Safety and never seemed to really catch on to either position.  He only earned one start and managed just over two tackles a game for a defense that was disappointing in general. 

Rather than providing a lift, Davis was used an example of things that went wrong for the Panthers on that side of the ball. Angry fans said he was a poor pick, pointing out that Davis’ scouting report also said that he could get beat in coverage and fell for the play-action too easily. 

To make matters worse, Derrick Johnson was lighting things up in Kansas City.  Johnson was a popular choice as an alternative to Davis, and he was picked by the Chiefs immediately after Davis was taken by the Panthers.

In the 2006 season the Panthers moved Thomas Davis to linebacker full time, and he responded with a decent, if not great year.  Playing on the strong side, Davis notched 71 tackles and 19 assists in 14 games.  He followed that up with a similar effort in 2007, making 72 tackles and 13 assists.  He looked good, but not great.

Then in 2008 he was moved to the weak side.  Playing without coverage responsibilities, he was able to fly to the ball and use his speed to greater advantage.  Davis increased his tackle total to 92, with 21 assists. 

In doing so, he became a favorite of many fans, who were both relieved and excited to see him begin living up to his draft billing.  Davis attained a status of that guy who’s the well-kept secret—unknown by fans in other divisions but respected and feared by coaching staffs around the league.

And 2009 should be the year where Thomas Davis becomes known on a national level.  Not only will he have a year of playing on the weak side under his belt, he also has a new defensive coordinator who schemes to his strengths and who has a reputation of developing great players at that position.

Ron Meeks preaches “swarming to the ball” and builds defenses that are more reactive.  Players who succeed in them are fast and instinctive, and race across the field to make plays.

To any Panthers fan the very concept of “swarming to the ball” seems to be designed with a player like Davis in mind.  But it’s not just the swarming concept that should have Davis fans excited.
In Meeks’ system, outside linebackers have always shone.  In Indianapolis his rosters included some impressive names, like Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Cato June and Freddy Keiaho.  Even more impressive is how all of them made their names playing in Meeks’ system.

This system comes with a scheme and alignments which should help Davis shine.

The 2009 Panthers will be without Ma’ake Kemoeatu, and look to be replacing him with a more traditional one-gap defensive linemen.  In doing so, the defensive line will be setting up in a traditional under-front scheme that relies on speed to close off gaps and herds opposing running backs to areas where support can be found.

How does that help the weakside linebacker?  Instead of a run-stuffing tackle closing two gaps and preventing runs up the middle, both defensive tackles will be shutting down a single gap and forcing the run to specific areas of the field.

In this scheme, the weakside linebacker is in a position to make a lot of plays.  He lines up behind the defensive tackle assigned to the “under” tackle position (Damione Lewis on the Panthers), and is well-protected from both the guard and tackle by the under tackle and defensive end on his side of the field.

The strong side linebacker has to deal with the tight end, while the middle linebacker must contend with either the right guard or the center.

If the Carolina nose tackle engages the center at all, Davis will be free to flow to the ball after ensuring that his own gap isn’t threatened. Beason and Diggs will be dealing with potential blocks from tight ends, offensive linemen, and the fullback. 

Simply put, Davis should be in position to make a lot of plays.

Another area of Meeks’ system that will come into play is the philosophy of the “turn back” or “spill” in run support. In Indianapolis, a defender taking on a block knew exactly where the help was and worked to turn or spill the running back in that direction.

Since the weakside linebacker is often unblocked in an under front, he’s frequently the help his teammates are looking for.  Again, Davis will be the beneficiary.

Davis has grown into his linebacker role well, and continues to mature not only as a player but as an athlete.  Earlier this year he ran a 4.2 in the 40, beating his combine time despite carrying 15 more pounds of muscle on his frame. 

He’s bigger, he’s faster, he still hits hard and with a sense of finality, and he’s still got that “get to the ball with bad intentions” attitude.

During training camp Davis has watched most of the action from the sidelines.  This has been a precautionary measure taken after a minor sprain to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his knee was suffered early in camp.

But that injury won’t keep him out of action for long.  He’ll be suiting up on opening day for sure, ready to step up as a leader of the Panthers defense.

And he won’t just be making tackles as usual. If past performance is any indicator of future results, between he and Meeks you can just see him taking that step from being very good to being outstanding.

This year, Thomas Davis will be getting to the Pro Bowl. With bad intentions, of course.

As Fate Would Have It, a Different Take on Carolina’s Injuries

The Carolina Panthers made very few changes this offseason.  Salary cap issues, the lack of available free agents that would fit well, and a general satisfaction with the current roster all contributed to the lack of movement made by the Panthers’ front office as far as personnel is concerned.

They dismissed some older veterans in the secondary and at running back, but quickly replaced them through the draft.  They locked down their stars, and added some depth on the defensive line through the draft.  They lost a few players through free agency that they could no longer afford, but quickly noted that there were replacements on the roster, even though they were young and inexperienced.

When all was said and done, the 2009 Panthers looked a lot like the 2008 version.  Maybe like a 2008 version with a playoff-sized chip on it’s shoulder, but still, not a lot had changed.

They were solid at all of the skill positions, and their starting lineup was talented and played well together. 

Depth was a concern though, particularly at defensive tackle, wide receiver, and on the offensive line.  All three areas have young, unproven players as the primary backups.

Then, as fate would have it, 30 minutes into the first practice Ma’ake Kemoeatu ran into a slippery patch of air and popped his Achilles tendon.  He’s out for the year.

Was that catastrophic?  Well, at first glance you would think so.  Kemo is a big man who demands a double team from the opposing offensive line.  He doesn’t get pushed out of the way easy and can effectively play two gaps, closing the middle well against the run.

Interestingly enough, the players that the Panthers have been playing in his old position are all one-gap rushers, and Carolina doesn’t seem to be in any hurry to replace him with another run-stuffing nose tackle.

In a way, this could work out okay for the Panthers.  Ron Meeks likes a more aggressive, attacking scheme anyway, and preferred smaller and quicker defensive tackles in Indianapolis.  Kemo isn’t the best fit for that approach, although it is nice to have a guy like that around for short yardage situations.

But the best part of that injury, if there is one, is that it happened early enough to develop some of our younger talent and find a suitable replacement if none of them work out.

Since the defensive tackle position seems to be working out, fate decided to test the Panthers again when Steve Smith went down with what appeared to be a bad shoulder injury.

Pundits everywhere immediately declared that the season was over without Smith.  Never mind that there are 21 other players who contribute on the field, Smith is Carolina’s best player and apparently the Panthers are lost without him.

Never mind that they were 2-0 in games without Smith last year.  Never mind that in the six games where he caught fewer than four balls, the Panthers were 4-2. 

Sure the Panthers are better with him than without him, but they’re not lost if he can’t suit up. 

Not that it matters anyway, Smith didn’t suffer a serious injury, and will be available in the preseason, if need be.

In the meantime, it turns out that the Panthers will get Dwayne Jarrett more reps in the Y slot at receiver, while Moose slides over to Smitty’s X spot.  That’s a good thing for a receiver who needs to show up this year.

The biggest beneficiaries though, may be Ryne Robinson and Kenny Moore.  While Jarrett plays with the ones, they’ll get more opportunities to make their cases for final roster spots. 

Given the lack of depth at receiver, extra reps for those two now could have a big payoff late in the season.

According to Greek mythology, there are three Fates.  And the Fates have tested Carolina twice, at two of their most vulnerable positions.

But Carolina has three of those, with the offensive line being the third.

Maybe bad news does come in threes, and the third test of fate will be an injury to that unit.

And maybe then Carolina fans will discover that Bernadeau is ready to produce inside, or that Schwartz is capable of spelling Otah, or that Robinson can immediately start in this league.

And in the end, that might be a very good thing indeed.

Maybe the Fates are testing the Panthers now, so that they will be prepared for a fateful day in February.

After all, Kemo didn’t quite fit with Meeks’ scheme.  Smitty isn’t going to miss a game, and really doesn’t need the practice.  And we still have one untested area.

So if you hear bad news about Vincent, or Otah, or Kalil, don’t worry too much.  Especially if it turns out that they won’t miss games during the season.

It’s just the Fates preparing the Panthers for a Super Bowl run. 

And who are we to argue with fate?

Carolina Panthers Doomed With Jake Delhomme? Don’t Count On It.

Almost before the final whistle blew during Carolina’s disappointing playoff game against the Cardinals, pundits were already outlining articles blaming the entire game on Jake Delhomme, and declaring that the Panthers would never win so long as he lined up under center.

For many of them, those articles were particularly easy to write.  All that was required was a basic restatement of prior columns and a perusal of various message boards around the region.  Armed with those resources, the material almost wrote itself.

There’s a reason people say the most popular guy in town is the backup quarterback.  The one who gets the glory also bears the brunt of the blame where things go wrong.  And things couldn’t have gone much more wrong for the Panthers than they did in their last game.

Yet despite the declarations of all the self-proclaimed experts out there, those who actually get paid to make personnel decisions decided to extend Delhomme’s contract through the 2014 season in April.

Of course, this initiated an entirely new round of articles claiming the Panthers would never win with Delhomme.

Look around the Internet and you’ll see prediction after prediction of the Panthers finishing in the middle of the pack.  Quarterback is the standard reason given. 

Mind you, this is the same quarterback who brought the Panthers to a 12-4 record in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, a procedure from which Jake Delhomme is the first quarterback ever to recover and resume playing.

But somehow, the 12-4 quarterback is the cited reason for the Panthers assumed inability to win.

Is this valid?  Are the Panthers doomed with Delhomme under center?

The answer is, it depends. 

If you subscribe to the notion that you’re no better than your last game, and that Jake is a gunslinger without the accuracy to make that style work, then you might be able to make a case.

But if you reject those assumptions, then it becomes a lot harder to simply dismiss Delhomme as a failure, and as a millstone around the Panthers’ collective necks.

The idea of being no better than your last game is absurd, and shouldn’t even be discussed.  Jake’s not the first quarterback to have a terrible game in the playoffs.

Hall of famer Dan Fouts had two five-interception playoff games during his tenure with the Chargers.

Peyton Manning threw four against New England in 2004.  This happened just a year after an awful game, where in a playoff loss to the Jets he finished with a rating of 31.2.

John Elway never threw more than three interceptions in a playoff game, but in his first super bowl he had a lousy 36.9 rating on three interceptions, and two years later his rating was a lowly 19.4 in a loss to the 49ers.

Speaking of super bowl choke artists, there’s Rich Gannon and his five interception game against Tampa Bay in 2003.  Lest you forget, Gannon was a four time pro bowler and made first team all-pro twice.

Then there’s Jim Kelly, who had a four interception game of his own in the 1992 playoffs.  He rebounded to lead his team back to the super bowl in 1993 and 1994.

So Delhomme’s not in the worst company, although you would be hard pressed to find anyone who wants him to be on that list.  None of those quarterbacks allowed themselves to be defined by their poor performance in one playoff game, and neither will Jake.

And is he really that wildly inconsistent?  Not particularly.  He isn’t the best quarterback in the league, but his stats are largely consistent from game to game.  Like most quarterbacks, he’s better at home than away.  He has some outstanding efforts and a few poor ones, but by and large he’s at around 100 at home and 80ish on the road.

One nice thing about his game is that he still gets better in the fourth quarter.  Although he’s ranked 18th in the league among active quarterbacks, in the fourth quarter he suddenly becomes the NFL’s fifth best, with a 97.8 rating.  He actually led the league in completion percentage late in the game when the score was close. 

Yes, despite his lousy overall numbers, when the game is on the line he’s still one of the best around. 

And Jake is perfect for the offense that the Panthers run. 

Carolina is a running team.  When the game starts, Jake is called on to be a game manager.  He’s tasked with handing the ball off to Williams and Stewart, and when the Panthers need a first down he’ll throw for it. 

Carolina doesn’t use a short passing game to set up the run.  They don’t have a West Coast offense.  They’re a plain old smash it up the middle and throw it down the field football team.

In that system, or maybe because of it, Jake doesn’t have great stats.  But he was fourth in the league in yards per attempt, and first in yards per completion. 

Think his stats would be better with a bunch of short completions mixed in?  Do you think he cares for a minute, as long as he’s winning?

Hand it off, hand it off, throw for a first down if necessary, or to keep the defense honest.  That’s the Panther’s game plan.  And they have a quarterback who understands it and is happy to execute it as it’s intended. 

And when the game is on the line and they need the gunslinger to come out, his rating rises from the high 70’s to the high 90’s.  Somehow he gets a lot more accurate too.

Do you think the Chargers are ready to question his accuracy in the last two minutes?  Dante Rosario sure won’t.

How about the Bears, who watched him go four for five in the fourth, including a deep ball to King that put the Panthers in perfect position for the go-ahead score.  Do you think they respect his game?

Green Bay ought to have a lot of respect for Jake’s ability to hit the deep ball in the fourth quarter.  Or was that all Steve Smith?

Of course, the Saints are well acquainted with his comebacks.  They suffered another one last year as Jake hit Smitty for a big gain on the Panthers’ last drive.  He completed his only other attempt to Moose before Kasay kicked the game winning field goal.

The bottom line is, Jake was deadly in the fourth every time the Panthers were in a close game last year.  The Giants edged the Panthers in overtime, but that might be blamed on the defense instead of the quarterback.

And don’t forget, Jake Delhomme is a great leader.  His teammates love him, and when he’s called on to carry the team late he delivers.

His two worst games of the season both came on two weeks rest, but that’s fodder for another article.  Just in case anyone wants to research Tommy John surgery and recovery times, that is.

This column isn’t about that.  It’s about why people think the Panthers are doomed with Jake under center.

It’s about blaming a quarterback for choosing a terrible time to have a terrible game. 

A game in which the starting running back managed 23 yards after an opening drive that saw him run all over the opponents. 

A game in which the NFL’s third best rushing attack ran the ball 15 times and passed 34, including on the vast majority of first downs.

A game in which the defense left one of the NFL’s best receivers uncovered in the flat for the entire first half.  In Arizona’s seven possessions during the first half, the Cardinals were forced to punt only once.

A game in which the quarterback shouldered the blame for the whole team and staff, and still accepts it.

Face it, Jake’s a game manager who has the ability to tighten it down late in the game.  Make him carry the team from the outset and you risk a meltdown.  And if he has one, he’ll take the heat for the entire team no matter what else happened.

But pair him with a great running attack and give him a close game or lead in the fourth quarter; well all he’ll do is just win a lot of games for you.

So if you consider all that and are still worried about whether he can recover from a five interception game in the playoffs, well you just need to look at NFL history to realize how unfair that really is.

After all, when Brett Favre threw six interceptions in the division playoffs against the Rams in 2002, no one was writing his professional obituary.  They weren’t writing it when he threw four against the Vikings in the 2005 postseason either. 

And writing Jake’s is also premature.  Good quarterbacks aren’t defined by a single game.

Beneath the Surface, a Look at the Panthers’ Depth in 2009

Did Geoff Hangartner save the Panthers season in 2008?

There’s an argument to be made that he did.  Although he wasn’t first anywhere on the depth chart, he still started eight games at right guard and center. 

Along with the Hangman, Frank Omiyale got a start at tackle.  Jeremy Bridges made four starts at right tackle.  The offensive line missed thirteen games in all from their starting five. 

Last year Jordan Gross missed one game, Travelle Wharton missed two, Ryan Kalil missed four, Keydrick Vincent missed two, and Jeff Otah missed four.  Fortunately for the Panthers, quality backup play made it all but unnoticeable.

Compare that to 2006, when the team lost two starters in week one, but after that the regular starters missed seven games.  A lot of people place the blame for a poor season on that unit’s performance.  But even with the shake-ups at the beginning of the year, they still had more stability on the line than last year’s unit.

The key was having more talent in 2008.  If anything there was more uncertainty from game to game than in 2006, but the depth was better.

Flash back to 2004, when the Panthers lost Steve Smith before the season started and then proceeded to get just two games out of Stephen Davis and four out of DeShaun Foster. 

Nick Goings had a hell of a year, but there’s a reason he was third on the depth chart when the season started.

The point is, depth is not only important, quality depth is essential to the success of a good football team.  Just imagine if instead of Geoff Hangartner, the Panthers tried to make do with Evan Mathis again, or Will Montgomery.  Sure, they’re capable, but do you want to rely on either of them to play multiple positions at a high level over the course of the season?

Teams that stay healthy win games.  If the Panthers were guaranteed 16 complete games by all of their starters, they would probably be an 11-12 win team despite the tough 2009 schedule.  But any NFL fan will tell you, it just doesn’t work out that way.  Injuries are a part of the game.

So how does this years edition look in terms of depth?  Where can the Panthers afford to rely on backups, and what positions probably keep the coaches up at night?  Let’s take a look.

Offense

Quarterback
Jake Delhomme is the unquestioned leader of the offense, and even though he can be inconsistent he still wins a lot more than he loses.  Behind him the Panthers have Josh McCown and Matt Moore. 

In 2007 the toll of 249 sacks taken in five years by David Carr took the Panthers by surprise, and when he went down to injury they ended up starting Vinny Testaverde and Matt Moore, each of whom managed a couple wins as the Panthers limped on to finish with a 7-9 record.

Delhomme is a game manager first, and a gunslinger second.  Both McCown and Moore can fill his shoes if called on, but only if the running game is still functioning on all cylinders.  Each backup has demonstrated an ability to win in the NFL, and both post general stats similar to Delhomme’s.

Risk: Moderate.  It’s hard to place a value on the leadership Delhomme brings to the table, but they have the experience on offense to help if he’s lost, and either backup can manage a game effectively.  His comeback ability raises the bar though.

Running Back
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart would each start for most teams in the league, and having both of them on the roster is a luxury for the Panthers.  Rookie Mike Goodson should provide good skills for a third down back, and in the Panthers offense will be effective even if the starters stay healthy. 

Rookie Tony Fiametta was widely considered as the best fullback in the draft, and what Brad Hoover lacks in accolades he makes up for in effectiveness. 

This position should also have talent available on the practice squad.

Risk:  Low.  Unless a freak season like 2004 hits the Panthers at this position, they’re loaded with skill and quality depth at this position.

Receivers
Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad form a pretty good receiving tandem for a run-first team.  Smitty brings big play ability and insurance against overloading the box, while Moose is a solid posession receiver with outstanding blocking skills. 

Third year man Dwayne Jarrett did a decent job in limited action in 2008, gaining first downs on every catch he made.  Behind him the Panthers have some quality young talent in Ryne Robinson, Kenny Moore, Larry Beavers, and Jason Carter.

Risk:  Moderate-to-High.  You know the old saying about how when you seem to have great talent everywhere, you really don’t have any talent at all?  Well behind the starters the Panthers have yet to find that receiver that can separate himself from the competition.  They can’t all be stars, can they?  Here’s a position where not a lot separates those at the bottom of the depth chart from the guys on the practice squad.

Tight Ends
Jeff King, Dante Rosario, and Gary Barnidge form one of the more unheralded units on the Panthers. 

In a John Fox offense, the Tight End is generally used as an additional offensive lineman. Run blocking is a premium, which is why Jeff King has a lock on the starting spot. 

Rosario and Barnidge both have good hands and can stretch the field, but their run blocking isn’t on the same level as Kings’.  Rookie Kevin Brock may make the practice squad.

Risk:  Low-to-Moderate.  The Panthers just don’t use this position enough to make it a critical cog in the offensive attack, but the running game depends on it more than you think. 

Offensive Line
Jordan Gross, Travelle Wharton, Ryan Kalil, Keydrick Vincent, and Jeff Otah make up one of the best lines in the NFL.  Behind them the Panthers have a handful of rookies and second year players. 

Guard/center Mackenzie Bernadeau has reportedly bulked up and the Panthers were fairly high on him in 2008, and rookie Duke Robinson was considered the best pure guard in his class. 

The Panthers also have second year tackle Geoff Schwartz and rookie Gerald Cadogan, but at this point no backup has done anything to inspire a lot of confidence should a starter go down.

Risk:  High.  The Panthers really don’t have any proven depth here.  If they experience even the same level of injury as they did last year then things could quickly get very bad.  Granted, depth could be there, but it hasn’t demonstrated that it can perform yet.  If the line needs to be shuffled and continuity is broken, it will have a negative impact on the entire offense. 

Defense

Defensive Line
On the ends, the Panthers are loaded with Julius Peppers, Tyler Brayton, Charles Johnson, Hilee Taylor, and Everette Brown.  On the inside it’s another story.  Tackles Damione Lewis and Maake Kemoeatu are capable starters, but behind them the Panthers have draft choice Corey Irvin and maybe either Marlon Favorite or Lonnie Harvey will step up. 

Second year man Nick Hayden is an option too, but he did a poor job playing in relief in 2008.  This is another spot that merits a practice squad project or two.

Risk:  High.  The End position is covered, but if the Panthers lose a starting tackle the talent drop will be substantial.  For a team that struggled to stop the run in 2008, that could be devastating.

Linebacker
The Panthers grew accustomed to injuries at linebacker during the Morgan years, but lately they’ve been very fortunate here.  Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Na’il Diggs stayed healthy all year in 2008, and only Diggs has any injury history at all. 

Backup Dan Connor is one of the best ever to come out of Penn State, AKA Linebacker University.  Landon Johnson was a starter in Cincinatti, and James Anderson has been solid in spot duty.

Risk:  Low-to-Moderate.  If Beason goes down the Panthers lose a star, and their defensive signal caller.  But they really have the personnel to overcome an injury to any of their starters, and should be solid here even if someone gets hurt.

Cornerback
Richard Marshall, Chris Gamble, and rookie Sherrod Martin will probably be the teams’ top three cornerbacks. 

Behind them the Panthers have veterans Dante Wesley and C. J. Wilson, with rookie Captain Munnerlyn available for more depth.  The Panthers will carry five cornerbacks, and should be fine at this position.

Risk:  Low.  Gamble would be hard to replace, but the Panthers have plenty of depth and experience here.

Safety
Chris Harris and Charles Godfrey are able starters, and Nate Salley’s a veteran who’s got starting experience. 

Cornerback Dante Wesley has also lined up at safety, so this position is set with experience in case something bad happens. 

Third year man Quinton Teal isn’t a lock to make the roster, but he does provide depth here.  The same goes for rookie Anthony Scirrotto.  A player with an outside shot at a roster spot also plays safety, rookie D. J. Clark.

Risk:  Low.  Harris is a good leader, but the Panthers have plenty of leadership on the defensive side of the ball and enough defensive backs to overcome the loss of any individual player.

Special Teams
John Kasay and Rhyss Lloyd each have a specific role to play, and both of them are very good at what they do.  Punter Jason Baker is also reliable and talented.  The Gunners this year will once again come from the defensive backs unit, which is loaded. 

Risk:  Low.  Lloyd would be the hardest to replace in terms of what he can do, and if he went down he probably wouldn’t be.  The others could be replaced with players off the street.  Long-time Panther fans know to worry about the long snapper, but as that position’s unknown at this time anyway there’s no greater risk to that position brought on by injury.  The same applies to the return game, last year’s return man is gone and that position is uncertain.

Summary
This year the Panthers are pretty happy with their talent at every starting position.  But they’re thin in some pretty critical spots–notably along both lines.  On a John Fox team, line play is crucial on both sides of the ball.

Don’t be surprised if there’s a repeat of 2008, where several veteran cast-offs are invited to camp to compete.  The Panthers seem solid on the surface, but they still have needs.

With any luck, they won’t be serious ones.

Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers’ 2009 Schedule, Pt. 3

Historically, under John Fox the Panthers follow good seasons with 7-9 efforts. That’s not the best sign for the 2009 squad.

But when you look at the reason why, there’s a little cause for optimism.

In 2004, injuries to Stephen Davis and Steve Smith killed the offense, and the Panthers started out the season 1-7 before adjusting, and going 6-2 in their final eight games.

In 2006, the offensive line was a revolving door, with Travelle Wharton going out early, Justin Hartwig missing the season to a groin in jury, and Mark Wahle finishing out 2006 on Injured Reserve.

Injuries dogged the Panthers all season, as Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme, Dan Morgan, and Mike Rucker also missed several games to injury that year, and after a somewhat promising 4-2 start the Panthers struggled to finish 8-8.

Although it didn’t follow a winning season, in 2007 the Panthers lost Jake Delhomme early and went through three other quarterbacks en route to a 7-9 finish.

Which brings us to 2009. The Panthers are coming off a strong 12-4 effort, and look talented enough to contend once again for the division title.

There are depth concerns on both lines though, and at wide receiver. If the Panthers get hurt at the wrong position, or lose too many people even where they have decent depth, then they’ll probably be lucky to be 2-6 at this point.

But this article assumes they’ll be healthy, or at least that they’ll be able to manage their injuries well. After all, no one wants to think about a “what-if” season where you finish with half of your team on the IR list, right?

So, if Carolina stays healthy, then the Panthers should be at least 4-4 at this point, and will probably be better than that.

You can expect the Panthers to be among the league leaders at running the ball again, and people outside the Carolinas will be surprised to see Jake Delhomme taking care of the ball.

On defense, the players will have adapted well to Meeks’ style, but don’t look for great stats yet. With the offenses the Panthers face in the first half, just being in the middle of the pack defensively will be an accomplishment.

Around the NFC South, the race will be emerging between the New Orleans Saints and the Panthers. After a dismal start, Tampa Bay will be looking for spoiler opportunities, and Atlanta will be struggling through the difficult part of their schedule with no defense of note.

The Saints will get a slow start, but Williams will have the defense playing better than it has in years, and all the Saints need is a decent unit on that side of the ball to be a real playoff contender.

Their big question will be whether they can win on the road, as they only play three of their last eight in the friendly confines of the Superdome.

The Panthers, on the other hand, only have three road games in the second half, and if they’re 5-3 or 6-2 at this point in the season, they’ll be the team to beat for the division title.

Games Nine through Twelve

The third quarter of the season looks to be the easiest on the schedule, with three home games and a winnable one on the road. But November is the only month where John Fox has failed to post a winning record.

Here are the games Carolina will play, with thoughts on each.

Week Ten, the Atlanta Falcons

2008 Record: 11-5
2008 Offensive Rank: 6th (14th in Passing, 2nd in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 24th (21st in Passing, 25th against the run)

So here it goes, rematch time. The first game was in Atlanta early in the season, this contest is in the friendly confines of Bank of America stadium.

In the first contest, the Falcons are coming off a winnable game and will have been riding high. But after they play the Panthers they get to go to New England, to San Francisco, then host Chicago before going to Dallas and to New Orleans. Finally they get a home breather versus a stout Washington defense before facing the Panthers on the road.

Forgive me for thinking they’ll have a difficult time assembling a winning record by this point. In fact, this is the part of the season where their wheels are going to start to come off.

Carolina will be looking at a Falcons team with an explosive offense and a porous defense that lacks both talent and leadership. And the Atlanta team that was so lucky on the injury front last year may be struggling with them in 2009.

Mike Mularkey’s offense will probably be more explosive than it was in 2008, but that also means the defense will be spending more time on the field. And if they end up swapping field goals for touchdowns, there will be a hint of desperation in Atlanta,

It’s happened to New Orleans in the past two years. Great offenses with poor defenses just don’t win consistently in the NFL.

The Panthers will probably drop the first contest, and will probably win this one. Or they’ll win in Atlanta, and disappoint the home team here. The Falcons and Panthers are probably headed for another split in 2009, their fourth in as many seasons.

Atlanta leads this series 17-11

Week Eleven, the Miami Dolphins

2008 Record: 11-5
2008 Offensive Rank: 12th (10th in passing, 11th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 15th (25th in Passing, 10th against the run)

The Dolphins were one of the surprise teams of 2008, going from a 1-15 season in 2007 to a first place finish in the AFC North and a playoff spot.

They did it on the strength of a favorable schedule and improved defensive play. The Dolphins switched to a 3-4 defense in 2008, and that unit was the key to their success. Their consistency as a team, however, was another story.

The point differential in their games was just 345-317, but they played in only three games where the outcome was decided by four points or less. When the matchups were favorable, they won and won big. When they weren’t, they got killed.

On the defensive line the Dolphins look set at nose tackle, but Jason Ferguson will turn 35 this year. At the ends, second year men Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford will try and make fans forget Vonnie Holliday’s presence and leadership.

In the 3-4 though, it’s the linebackers who star. The Dolphins have some good options there, with Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele in the middle, Pro Bowler Joey Porter on one side, and on the other Jason Taylor and Mike Roth. Crowder has had knee problems in the past and Taylor’s getting up there in age, but this is a solid unit.

In the secondary is where the questions lie. Cornerback Will Allen is a Pro Bowler, but they need someone to emerge on the other side to replace Andre’ Goodman, who signed with the Broncos in the offseason.

They also need help at Free Safety, and may have gotten a steal in free agency. The Raiders severely overpaid for Gibril Wilson, and had to let him go in a salary cap move. The Dolphins were the lucky team to snag him, and he should be an improvement over Renaldo Hill.

On offense Chad Pennington will still be the starting quarterback this year. He’s never had a big arm, and his receiving corps of Davone Bess, Ted Ginn Jr., and Greg Camarillo only combined for five touchdowns last season.

Miami uses their tight ends as receivers a lot, and led by Anthony Fasano that group scored ten touchdowns in 2008. When your tight ends outscore the receivers, no one is going to think of your offense as dynamic.

But the Dolphins like to mix it up in the running game, bringing back the popularity of the wildcat offense. Panther fans will remember how Dan Henning used this with DeAngelo Williams to beat Atlanta in 2007.

In Miami, it’s Ronnie Brown who lines up to run it, and they also drafted Pat White, who projects as a wildcat option in the NFL, or he may be used to help out the receiving corps.

The Fins also have Ricky Williams, who’s getting old but can still run the ball.

So in sum, the Dolphins don’t have any stars on offense. But they have a group of capable players.  Capable or not, they can be shut down. And they will be.

Unlike their 2008 season, the Dolphins play a brutal schedule–the hardest in the NFL. At this point in the season the age they have on defense will probably be showing itself in the form of injuries, and there will be a whole book out on how to handle the Miami offense.

The Panthers have never beaten the Dolphins. But the Dolphins won’t stop the Panthers offense, and at Bank of America stadium they’ll struggle to move the ball. The streak ends here.

The Panthers have a lifetime record of 0-3 against the Dolphins

Week Twelve, at the New York Jets

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 16th (16th in passing, 9th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 16th (29th in Passing, 7th against the run)

The New York Jets went for broke in 2008, putting their season in the hands of Brett Favre. Unfortunately for them, they peaked in the third quarter of the season with a convincing win in Tennessee, then went 1-4 to close out their season at 9-7.

That finish probably nailed the coffin shut on Eric Mangini’s tenure, as he was fired the day after the season ended. His replacement is one of the game’s best defensive minds, former Raven defensive coordinator Rex Ryan.

They also replaced Favre by moving up in the first round to select Mark Sanchez in the draft. Sanchez ran a pro-style offense at USC, but the NFL is a much quicker game and success in college is no guarantee in the NFL.

Still, he has the tools, and should develop into a quality starter in time. But in New York, he may not have the tools to win this year.

Laverneous Coles left the team in free agency, leaving Jericho Cotchery as the first receiver. Cotchery is good, but he’s a possession guy at best, and won’t perform well against the other teams’ top cornerback.

The Jets have a pass-catching tight end in Dustin Keller, but that’s about it. Outside of Cotchery and Keller, they have a group of players who combined for 75 catches last year, but none of them really asserted themselves as candidates for the number two job.

The frontrunner is probably former 7th round pick Chansi Stuckey, who played his college ball at Clemson. Former quarterback Brad Smith may also win the job, or it could be a free agent. That much uncertainty doesn’t bode well for Sanchez.

At least there’s some real talent at running back. Thomas Jones was the AFC’s leading rusher, and he’s spelled by home-run threat Leon Washington. Both of them benefit from a very solid run-blocking offensive line.

But Jones is 31 and old running backs wear down as the season goes on.  If the Jets are going to win, it will be on the back of their defense.

That probably suits Ryan just fine, as he’s followed that model in Baltimore for years.

Up front the Jets have pro bowler Kris Jenkins at the nose tackle; and Shaun Ellis and former Raven Marques Douglas will line up at the ends.

At linebacker Ryan brought another Raven with him in Bart Scott, and he will team with David Harris on the inside to form a solid core. With those two manning the middle behind Jenkins, the Jets will be difficult to run on in 2009.

On the outside, what the Jets really need is for someone to light a fire under 2008 first round pick Vernon Gholston. He has the physical tools to be a star in Ryan’s defense, but if he disappears again then Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas will man the edges.

The secondary will boast yet another ex-Raven in strong safety Jim Leonhard (do you detect a theme here?). He’ll team with budding star Kerry Rhodes in the middle, while the cornerback positions will be manned by pro bowler Darrel Revis, and former pro bowler Lito Sheppard.

Expect the Jets’ defense to look a lot like the Ravens’, and to be improved on last year’s unit. Points will be hard to come by in New York this year, as the Jets won’t score a lot and neither will their opponents.

Carolina’s defense should be more than good enough to confound a rookie quarterback. Given that Williams and Stewart are hard to shut down, look at this game as a good candidate for the Panthers to steal one on the road.

Carolina and New York are even in the series at 2-2

Week Thirteen, The Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)

This is the second meeting in 2009 between the Buccaneers and the Panthers, and given the likely state of both teams it’s the best candidate for a win in the quarter.

Assuming the Bucs manage the upset in week six, and that’s a big assumption, then this game is going to be a hell of a payback time.

If they don’t, this game is still in Charlotte, the Panthers will be playing for playoff positioning, and the Bucs will be playing for pride, at best.

A look at the Bucs’ schedule tells the story. After the first Panthers game, they’re probably looking at a 2-4 record at best. They they get to host New England and Green Bay before heading to the Dolphins. They get a strong New Orleans team before going to the Falcons, and then they head into this contest.

If the Bucs have more than three wins at this point, Morris should be getting consideration for coach of the year honors.

But then again, that’s exactly what people thought about Atlanta last year.

This bears repeating. The Bucs have a young and aggressive defense. They lost a lot of personnel, but at this point in the year they’ll know who their leaders are, and while other teams are getting tired they’ll be in a position to take advantage of their youth and depth.

And on offense, the Josh Freeman show will be in full swing. The rookie will have a feel for the NFL by then, and his coordinator will know what he can and can’t do.

Don’t look for a conventional offense here, they’ll probably be relying on some gimmicks to move the ball. But moving the ball is moving the ball, regardless of how it’s done.

And this is team has a lot of the same players that looked like Super Bowl candidates last year at this time.

This is still probably a Panther win, but any given Sunday and all that…

Carolina leads the series 10-7

Conclusion

This is by far the easiest stretch of games for the Panthers this season. After hitting the NFC East hard in the first quarter and dealing with some high powered offenses in the second, the third quarter is largely marked by games against teams that will be thinking about defense first.

Given that the Panthers are set on offense and questionable on defense, the mediocre offenses they face here may be just what the doctor ordered to give the club some confidence heading into the brutal home stretch.

In 2008, the Panthers really started to come together as a dominant running team later in the year. The same thing will happen this year, although in 2009 no one will be taken by surprise.

The Panthers should put together a 3-1 effort here, and don’t be surprised at 4-0 either. This year the Bad November story gets a new chapter.

So unless there have been a ton of injuries, the Panthers should be in the 7-5 or 8-4 range after this quarter. That’s going to look good, but although they’ll appear in the drivers seat for the division, December will be a killer.

The Panthers will probably be playing four teams in the top of their division, and the last game against New Orleans will be for the division title.

But that’s a subject for another article. Tune in next week, when we finish out the 2009 season.

Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers’ 2009 Schedule, Pt. 2

In our first article in this series, we explored the first “quarter” of the upcoming football season. The concept, as explained there, is that John Fox likes to look at the season in terms of quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one.

This series takes that concept and runs with it, looking at each group of four games from a July perspective. Sure it’s a long-range, somewhat homer-istic speculation, but what else are you going to do in July?

Should you take any of this to Vegas and run with it? Well, if you believe everyone will stay healthy and no one will disappoint. This is all guesswork, and should be taken as such.

In the first four games, the Panthers project to a 2-2 record. There’s a decent shot at 3-1 or 1-3, but it’s more likely to see them break even.

This column is the second in this series, so today we’re going to cover the games five through eight.

 

Games Five through Eight

The second quarter of the 2009 season is a lot nicer to the Panthers than the first was. The Panthers’ combined record against this group is 33-25, and 17-9 in the venues in which these games take place.

The bad news is that John Fox is just 15-14 in October, and 13-14 in November (by far his worst month). Traditionally, this is not the time of year that the Panthers play their best football.

That’s not to say all is lost, the Panthers October and November records are marred by a few winless streaks brought on by injuries. If Carolina stays healthy, or develops depth to cover injuries, then they’ll be in pretty good shape.

In 2008 they went 6-2 during this time, and given the opponents this quarter, that’s a good sign.

Hopefully, at this point of the season the Panthers will be established as one of the better running teams in the league, and their defense will be working well under Meeks’ system.

You can expect rookie Everett Brown and Julius Peppers to be putting up good numbers by now, and if the interior of the line stays healthy the Panther defense may be starting to get a little respect.

The numbers may not reflect that, given the offensive machines the Panthers played in the first quarter of the season, but signs will be there that the Panthers don’t lay down for anyone.

That’s going to be critical during this slate of games. Let’s take a look.

 

Week Six, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)

Tampa Bay looked like a contender to win the division at this time in 2008. They were only 3-2, but in this same week last year they put a 27-3 shellacking on the Panthers in Raymond James stadium that carried them to a 9-3 record before their late season collapse. Times have changed.

The Bucs have opted for a total rebuild in 2009, entering the season without such storied names as Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Carter, Phillip Buchanon, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jovan Haye, Ike Hillard, and of course, John Gruden.

They did add an excellent tight end in Kellin Winslow, a pretty good running back in Derrick Ward, and a possible quarterback of the future in rookie Josh Freeman.

But they start the year with games at the Bills, Redskins, and Eagles, and play two decent road teams in Dallas and the New York Giants. It’s a distinct possibility that they’re 0-5 when the Panthers come to town.

If that’s the case, watch out for a trap here.

The Panthers seemingly have the Bucs’ number when Jake Delhomme is the QB, going 8-2 against them with only one loss at Raymond James stadium. Unfortunately, that loss came last year, so the spell may have been broken.

In recent years Tampa Bay has had a young and aggressive defense that has consistently ranked among the tops in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has left for Tennessee though, and they return only six starters from the 2008 unit.

On the line, chronic disappointment Gaines Adams will be joined by Chris Hovan, Ryan Sims, and a player to be named later.

Behind them there’s a giant hole where Derrick Brooks used to be. The Linebackers have talent, but will miss Brooks’ leadership.

The secondary is once again the strength of the defense. Ronde Barber returns, and although he’s old he can still be effective and brings a veteran presence to the field. Aquib Talib is a great cornerback, and Tanard Jackson is a hard hitting free safety.

They may move strong safety Jermaine Phillips to linebacker, but even if they do third year man Sabby Piscatelli is more than capable of filling his shoes.

So while there are unknowns on the defense, there’s still some good talent. But whether that talent can play at a high level in a new system is a different question entirely.

On offense, expect to see Josh Freeman by this point. If the Bucs are 0-5 or 1-4, the season will be viewed as a rebuilding year anyway, and it will be time to see what the future franchise quarterback can do.

He’ll be passing the ball to Winslow and receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. There are questions about his accuracy, but you can expect the offensive coordinator to make things easy on the rookie, and give him a lot of throws underneath until his mechanics can be improved.

What will make his life a lot easier is the running game. Even before adding Ward, Tampa Bay already had two talented backs in Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.

Their problems back there have been Williams’ knees, and if he can stay healthy the addition of Ward will make their offense a lot better than most people expect.

The offensive line is young and talented, and should make Freeman look good and the running game go. What’s worse for Panther fans, the oldest starter is center Jeff Faine, and he’s just 28.

If the line stays healthy and Tampa Bay gets good play out of the quarterback position, the offense could surprise a lot of people. But for now, expectations are low.

After all, the Bucs are missing a ton of starters, they’re young, have a new coach, a good free agent running back, and will probably start a rookie under center. How can they be expected to win? Only an Atlanta fan can know for sure…

So don’t be hasty about writing them off. This is a division game, and the Panthers are the team that started the Bucs’ big slide in 2008. There’s a big revenge factor here, and if the Bucs are already having a bad year this game is going to be their own personal Super Bowl.

This is a winnable game, and the Panthers will probably be favored, but they better bring their best efforts or they’ll be in for a nasty surprise.

Carolina leads this series 10-7

 

Week Seven, the Buffalo Bills

2008 Record: 7-9
2008 Offensive Rank: 25th (22nd in passing, 14th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 14th (13th in Passing, 22nd against the run)

Buffalo started the 2008 season on fire, going 5-1, but it got ugly after that as they went 2-8 the rest of the way en route to a 7-9 finish. The Bills became the fifth team in the last 31 years to start 5-1 and not make the playoffs.

Drastic measures have been taken, as the Bills went out and signed Terrell Owens in the offseason. TO is usually good for one productive season before he starts to destroy team chemistry, and since this is probably Dick Jauron’s last year if Buffalo doesn’t win, it’s probably a risk worth taking.

If Owens behaves and the line questions work themselves out, this could be one of the more improved offenses in the league this year. In addition to Owens, the Bills signed running back Dominick Rhodes, and drafted a pass catching tight end in Shawn Nelson.

Put those newcomers together with Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch and you have a multidimensional attack that has fans in Buffalo excited this year.

A lot of that depends on line play though. The Bills let Jason Peter go in Free Agency, and are hoping that Langston Walker can make a smooth transition to left tackle like Jordan Gross did for the Panthers in 2008.

They also have a talented newcomer at center in former Panther Geoff Hangartner, and brought in some good depth via the draft.

Basically, if the line comes together like it has potential to, and if T.O. keeps his mouth shut and plays ball, then the Bills offense should have some real teeth.

On the other side of the ball, there are still a lot of question marks. Last year the Bills were 28th in total sacks, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback or it will be another long year.

To address that, they drafted Aaron Maybin to line up across from a hopefully healthy Aarom Schobel, who missed 11 games in 2008. Their interior of the line is set, but after that they have big issues.

At linebacker, they’re set at the weak side with Kawika Mitchell, but Paul Posluszny has been a disappointment in the middle and the strong side still isn’t set.

Their secondary, however, is solid on the edges with cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and veteran Terrence McGee, and they have a very good strong safety and leader in Donte Whitner.

Whitner teamed with Ko Simpson as the NFL’ first ever rookie safety tandem in 2006, but Simpson has since lost his starting job and they’re still not set at the Free Safety position.

The Bills open the season at New England (and Tom Brady will be back), then they get a potential breather in Tampa Bay before playing the Saints. Then it’s off to the Dolphins, home against the Browns (who swept them in 2008), and on the road at the Jets before they roll into Charlotte.

After looking at that slate of games though, “roll into Charlotte” may be the wrong expression. The Bills will probably be limping into town with a hint of desperation in their play.

Don’t expect them to shut down the run, and if a visiting team can’t shut down the run they could be in for a long day. Unless the Bills’ offense is excellent, this looks like a probable win.

The Bills have a lifetime record of 3-1 versus the Panthers

 

Week Three, at the Arizona Cardinals

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 4th (second in passing, 32nd in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 19th (22nd in Passing, 16th against the run)

Payback time.

For any Panther fan, that’s about all that needs to be said here, but let’s look at the Cards anyway.

The Cardinals of 2009 will look a lot like the team that finished 2008, but only on the surface. Both offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are now in Kansas City, and they also had to replace running back Edgerrin James and defensive end Antonio Smith.

The biggest problem they face this year though, is history. In this decade, the Super Bowl runner-up has made the playoffs just once, and that was because they were in the worst division in football. Well, given that the Cardinals also play there they may still have some hope.

But Arizona has two big question marks. The first is their defense; will it play at the level it maintained in the 2008 playoffs? The second is their quarterback, Kurt Warner.

No one will dispute that he’s a good quarterback when he has time. But Warner will be 38 when the season starts. He also just signed a 2-year contract, so he’s not playing for a payday. And even though he spent 2008 in good shape, he has an injury history.

If he stays healthy, he should put up MVP-like numbers.  At receiver the Cardinals return Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the all-world Larry Fitzgerald, who may be the best player at his position in the NFL.

Arizona didn’t have much of a running game in 2008, and brought in help this year in the form of first round pick Beanie Wells.

The only question marks for the Arizona offense are on the line. They allowed 28 sacks in 2008. The linemen are all coming back, so there may be some bonus for continuity there, but none of them are particularly good and they can’t run-block.

Still, any fair appraisal of the Cardinal offense will end with the question of just how you stop them. They were great in 2008, and they’re going to be great in 2009.

If Arizona’s defense plays like they did in the playoffs, this team bucks history and gets back to the big game. But that’s a huge if, particularly with Smith’s departure.

Arizona has no pass rush. They’re going to try and address that this year by alternating between a 4-3 and 3-4 alignment, and increasing the pressure from the outside.

Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell should both work well at the end positions regardless of the alignment, but inside there could be a problem, as their nose tackle is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years.

In the 3-4, Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry will line up in the outside linebacker spots.

That’s not ideal, as Okeafor got just 4.5 sacks in 2008 and will be 33 this season. Bertrand Berry led the team with five sacks last season. But he turns 34 in August, and he’s missed 23 games the past four years.

At inside linebacker the Cardinals have one of the best in the league in Karlos Dansby, and they also have a great secondary anchored by cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the newly acquired Bryant McFadden.

So it looks pretty good on the surface. But again the problem of no pressure persists. Even the best corners in the league can’t keep a receiver blanketed for the entire play–give any quarterback enough time and he’ll find an open man.

And given that the Cardinals are mediocre against the run, that almost writes the script on how to beat them. Run the ball, eat up clock, and make Warner and Fitzgerald try and beat you from the bench.

The Panthers are just the sort of team that can pull a plan like that off. And there are a couple of guarantees for this game. First, the Panthers won’t run it down the field in the first drive and then rely on Jake and Jake alone the rest of the game.

Second, there will be someone on Larry Fitzgerald at all times. Count on it.

And count on one of the best efforts from a Panthers team in years. This is a great candidate for a victory on the road.

Carolina leads the series 6-3

 

Week Five, at the New Orleans Saints

2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: First (1st in passing, 28th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)

After Arizona, this is going to feel like an “out of the frying pan, into the fire” game for the Carolina defense. And for the second straight week, the offense will be having fun out there.

The 2008 edition of the New Orleans Saints was marked by an ability to seemingly move the ball at will. But as effective as they were on offense, they were bad on defense. To address this, they added two critical pieces to their team.

The first is attitude. The Saints brought in defensive coordinator Greg Williams to add toughness, but as he showed in Jacksonville there’s only so much you can do when you don’t have strong personnel.

Williams’ scheme is fast, attacking, and oriented towards forcing turnovers. The secondary is required to blitz, cover, and tackle. Without talent though, there’s not a lot that can be done.

So the Saints went out and signed Jabari Greer from Buffalo to play at one cornerback position and at the other will probably go with Tracy Porter, who looked good in the 10 games he played last year.

Roman Harper will likely line up at strong safety while the second critical piece of their defensive rebuild will take the free safety spot, former Ohio State star Malcolm Jenkins.

Jenkins is just a rookie, but he should immediately become the most talented player in the New Orleans secondary.

The linebackers boast the presence of Jonathan Vilma, but they also return Scott Fujita and Scott Schanle. Both topped 100 tackles a year ago, but when the tackles are coming five yards off the line of scrimmage that’s not a lot to brag about.

On the line, Sedrick Ellis had a decent rookie year, but had to deal with nagging injury issues. He could use some help inside but didn’t really get much. The Saints signed Rod Colman from Atlanta, but he’s 33 and not known for his ability to stuff the run.

At the ends, the Saints have two chronic underachievers in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both of them will miss the first four games in 2009 for violating in the League’s drug policy.

On offense the Saints return Drew Brees, who’s possibly the best .500 NFL quarterback in history.

In ways he personifies the Saints.  No one gets better stats, but his lifetime record as a starter is just 55-51.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will return in the backfield, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey will be healthy, and the line will be good again. There’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score as much as they did in 2009. This is the best offense in the NFL.

But last year the best offense in the NFL did nothing more than break even. The Saints were terrible on the road in 2008, and couldn’t win the close games.

Look for the Saints to stumble out of the gate again, largely due to a complete inability to pressure the opposing quarterback.

They probably won’t get hit by injuries again like they did in 2008, but regardless of the reason, missed games are missed games. Losing both ends for the first four games hurts, particularly for a coach who’s not known for fast starts.

By this time though, they’ll be turning their season around. They’ll be fresh off a home game against Atlanta, a team they’ve owned in recent years, and they’ll be at home and fired up.

But at the same time, Jake Delhomme has an 8-2 record against the Saints, and is undefeated in the Superdome.

New Orleans won’t stop Carolina, and Carolina probably won’t stop the Saints. Between these two teams there’s never a guarantee, and the winner of this one will probably be whoever wins the turnovers battle.

Carolina leads the series 16-12

 

Conclusion

After the first four games, this quarter almost looks like a breather. There are at least two very winnable games here in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and even though they’re playing on the road the Panthers have won a lot in both Arizona and New Orleans.

Don’t be surprised at a 3-1 quarter here. If the injuries have been manageable and the defense has responded to Meeks’ system, don’t be surprised at 4-0 either.

As in 2008, when the Panthers can run at will they’re probable winners. And none of these four teams has what it takes to shut them down.

Barring a total collapse, the Panthers will be at least 4-4 at the end of this quarter. There’s a very good chance at 5-3, and 6-2 isn’t out of the question. That’s good news heading into the third quarter.

The Panthers have not been great in November under John Fox, but this year they’ll get three of four games at home and all four look like good candidates for W’s.

More on that next week though, when we explore the third quarter of 2009.

Four Quarters: A Look at the Carolina Panthers’ 2009 Schedule, Pt. 2

In our first article in this series, we explored the first “quarter” of the upcoming football season. The concept, as explained there, is that John Fox likes to look at the season in terms of quarters, with a goal of going 3-1 or 4-0 in each one.

This series takes that concept and runs with it, looking at each group of four games from a July perspective. Sure it’s a long-range, somewhat homer-istic speculation, but what else are you going to do in July?

Should you take any of this to Vegas and run with it? Well, if you believe everyone will stay healthy and no one will disappoint. This is all guesswork, and should be taken as such.

In the first four games, the Panthers project to a 2-2 record. There’s a decent shot at 3-1 or 1-3, but it’s more likely to see them break even.

This column is the second in this series, so today we’re going to cover the games five through eight.

 

Games Five through Eight

The second quarter of the 2009 season is a lot nicer to the Panthers than the first was. The Panthers’ combined record against this group is 33-25, and 17-9 in the venues in which these games take place.

The bad news is that John Fox is just 15-14 in October, and 13-14 in November (by far his worst month). Traditionally, this is not the time of year that the Panthers play their best football.

That’s not to say all is lost, the Panthers October and November records are marred by a few winless streaks brought on by injuries. If Carolina stays healthy, or develops depth to cover injuries, then they’ll be in pretty good shape.

In 2008 they went 6-2 during this time, and given the opponents this quarter, that’s a good sign.

Hopefully, at this point of the season the Panthers will be established as one of the better running teams in the league, and their defense will be working well under Meeks’ system.

You can expect rookie Everett Brown and Julius Peppers to be putting up good numbers by now, and if the interior of the line stays healthy the Panther defense may be starting to get a little respect.

The numbers may not reflect that, given the offensive machines the Panthers played in the first quarter of the season, but signs will be there that the Panthers don’t lay down for anyone.

That’s going to be critical during this slate of games. Let’s take a look.

 

Week Six, at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 14th (11th in Passing, 15th in Rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: ninth (fourth in Passing, 19th against the run)

Tampa Bay looked like a contender to win the division at this time in 2008. They were only 3-2, but in this same week last year they put a 27-3 shellacking on the Panthers in Raymond James stadium that carried them to a 9-3 record before their late season collapse. Times have changed.

The Bucs have opted for a total rebuild in 2009, entering the season without such storied names as Derrick Brooks, Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Kevin Carter, Phillip Buchanon, Joey Galloway, Cato June, Jovan Haye, Ike Hillard, and of course, John Gruden.

They did add an excellent tight end in Kellin Winslow, a pretty good running back in Derrick Ward, and a possible quarterback of the future in rookie Josh Freeman.

But they start the year with games at the Bills, Redskins, and Eagles, and play two decent road teams in Dallas and the New York Giants. It’s a distinct possibility that they’re 0-5 when the Panthers come to town.

If that’s the case, watch out for a trap here.

The Panthers seemingly have the Bucs’ number when Jake Delhomme is the QB, going 8-2 against them with only one loss at Raymond James stadium. Unfortunately, that loss came last year, so the spell may have been broken.

In recent years Tampa Bay has had a young and aggressive defense that has consistently ranked among the tops in the league. Long time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has left for Tennessee though, and they return only six starters from the 2008 unit.

On the line, chronic disappointment Gaines Adams will be joined by Chris Hovan, Ryan Sims, and a player to be named later.

Behind them there’s a giant hole where Derrick Brooks used to be. The Linebackers have talent, but will miss Brooks’ leadership.

The secondary is once again the strength of the defense. Ronde Barber returns, and although he’s old he can still be effective and brings a veteran presence to the field. Aquib Talib is a great cornerback, and Tanard Jackson is a hard hitting free safety.

They may move strong safety Jermaine Phillips to linebacker, but even if they do third year man Sabby Piscatelli is more than capable of filling his shoes.

So while there are unknowns on the defense, there’s still some good talent. But whether that talent can play at a high level in a new system is a different question entirely.

On offense, expect to see Josh Freeman by this point. If the Bucs are 0-5 or 1-4, the season will be viewed as a rebuilding year anyway, and it will be time to see what the future franchise quarterback can do.

He’ll be passing the ball to Winslow and receivers Antonio Bryant and Michael Clayton. There are questions about his accuracy, but you can expect the offensive coordinator to make things easy on the rookie, and give him a lot of throws underneath until his mechanics can be improved.

What will make his life a lot easier is the running game. Even before adding Ward, Tampa Bay already had two talented backs in Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham.

Their problems back there have been Williams’ knees, and if he can stay healthy the addition of Ward will make their offense a lot better than most people expect.

The offensive line is young and talented, and should make Freeman look good and the running game go. What’s worse for Panther fans, the oldest starter is center Jeff Faine, and he’s just 28.

If the line stays healthy and Tampa Bay gets good play out of the quarterback position, the offense could surprise a lot of people. But for now, expectations are low.

After all, the Bucs are missing a ton of starters, they’re young, have a new coach, a good free agent running back, and will probably start a rookie under center. How can they be expected to win? Only an Atlanta fan can know for sure…

So don’t be hasty about writing them off. This is a division game, and the Panthers are the team that started the Bucs’ big slide in 2008. There’s a big revenge factor here, and if the Bucs are already having a bad year this game is going to be their own personal Super Bowl.

This is a winnable game, and the Panthers will probably be favored, but they better bring their best efforts or they’ll be in for a nasty surprise.

Carolina leads this series 10-7

 

Week Seven, the Buffalo Bills

2008 Record: 7-9
2008 Offensive Rank: 25th (22nd in passing, 14th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 14th (13th in Passing, 22nd against the run)

Buffalo started the 2008 season on fire, going 5-1, but it got ugly after that as they went 2-8 the rest of the way en route to a 7-9 finish. The Bills became the fifth team in the last 31 years to start 5-1 and not make the playoffs.

Drastic measures have been taken, as the Bills went out and signed Terrell Owens in the offseason. TO is usually good for one productive season before he starts to destroy team chemistry, and since this is probably Dick Jauron’s last year if Buffalo doesn’t win, it’s probably a risk worth taking.

If Owens behaves and the line questions work themselves out, this could be one of the more improved offenses in the league this year. In addition to Owens, the Bills signed running back Dominick Rhodes, and drafted a pass catching tight end in Shawn Nelson.

Put those newcomers together with Trent Edwards, Lee Evans, and Marshawn Lynch and you have a multidimensional attack that has fans in Buffalo excited this year.

A lot of that depends on line play though. The Bills let Jason Peter go in Free Agency, and are hoping that Langston Walker can make a smooth transition to left tackle like Jordan Gross did for the Panthers in 2008.

They also have a talented newcomer at center in former Panther Geoff Hangartner, and brought in some good depth via the draft.

Basically, if the line comes together like it has potential to, and if T.O. keeps his mouth shut and plays ball, then the Bills offense should have some real teeth.

On the other side of the ball, there are still a lot of question marks. Last year the Bills were 28th in total sacks, and they need to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback or it will be another long year.

To address that, they drafted Aaron Maybin to line up across from a hopefully healthy Aarom Schobel, who missed 11 games in 2008. Their interior of the line is set, but after that they have big issues.

At linebacker, they’re set at the weak side with Kawika Mitchell, but Paul Posluszny has been a disappointment in the middle and the strong side still isn’t set.

Their secondary, however, is solid on the edges with cornerbacks Leodis McKelvin and veteran Terrence McGee, and they have a very good strong safety and leader in Donte Whitner.

Whitner teamed with Ko Simpson as the NFL’ first ever rookie safety tandem in 2006, but Simpson has since lost his starting job and they’re still not set at the Free Safety position.

The Bills open the season at New England (and Tom Brady will be back), then they get a potential breather in Tampa Bay before playing the Saints. Then it’s off to the Dolphins, home against the Browns (who swept them in 2008), and on the road at the Jets before they roll into Charlotte.

After looking at that slate of games though, “roll into Charlotte” may be the wrong expression. The Bills will probably be limping into town with a hint of desperation in their play.

Don’t expect them to shut down the run, and if a visiting team can’t shut down the run they could be in for a long day. Unless the Bills’ offense is excellent, this looks like a probable win.

The Bills have a lifetime record of 3-1 versus the Panthers

 

Week Three, at the Arizona Cardinals

2008 Record: 9-7
2008 Offensive Rank: 4th (second in passing, 32nd in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 19th (22nd in Passing, 16th against the run)

Payback time.

For any Panther fan, that’s about all that needs to be said here, but let’s look at the Cards anyway.

The Cardinals of 2009 will look a lot like the team that finished 2008, but only on the surface. Both offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are now in Kansas City, and they also had to replace running back Edgerrin James and defensive end Antonio Smith.

The biggest problem they face this year though, is history. In this decade, the Super Bowl runner-up has made the playoffs just once, and that was because they were in the worst division in football. Well, given that the Cardinals also play there they may still have some hope.

But Arizona has two big question marks. The first is their defense; will it play at the level it maintained in the 2008 playoffs? The second is their quarterback, Kurt Warner.

No one will dispute that he’s a good quarterback when he has time. But Warner will be 38 when the season starts. He also just signed a 2-year contract, so he’s not playing for a payday. And even though he spent 2008 in good shape, he has an injury history.

If he stays healthy, he should put up MVP-like numbers.  At receiver the Cardinals return Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, and the all-world Larry Fitzgerald, who may be the best player at his position in the NFL.

Arizona didn’t have much of a running game in 2008, and brought in help this year in the form of first round pick Beanie Wells.

The only question marks for the Arizona offense are on the line. They allowed 28 sacks in 2008. The linemen are all coming back, so there may be some bonus for continuity there, but none of them are particularly good and they can’t run-block.

Still, any fair appraisal of the Cardinal offense will end with the question of just how you stop them. They were great in 2008, and they’re going to be great in 2009.

If Arizona’s defense plays like they did in the playoffs, this team bucks history and gets back to the big game. But that’s a huge if, particularly with Smith’s departure.

Arizona has no pass rush. They’re going to try and address that this year by alternating between a 4-3 and 3-4 alignment, and increasing the pressure from the outside.

Darnell Dockett and Calais Campbell should both work well at the end positions regardless of the alignment, but inside there could be a problem, as their nose tackle is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years.

In the 3-4, Chike Okeafor and Bertrand Berry will line up in the outside linebacker spots.

That’s not ideal, as Okeafor got just 4.5 sacks in 2008 and will be 33 this season. Bertrand Berry led the team with five sacks last season. But he turns 34 in August, and he’s missed 23 games the past four years.

At inside linebacker the Cardinals have one of the best in the league in Karlos Dansby, and they also have a great secondary anchored by cornerbacks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the newly acquired Bryant McFadden.

So it looks pretty good on the surface. But again the problem of no pressure persists. Even the best corners in the league can’t keep a receiver blanketed for the entire play–give any quarterback enough time and he’ll find an open man.

And given that the Cardinals are mediocre against the run, that almost writes the script on how to beat them. Run the ball, eat up clock, and make Warner and Fitzgerald try and beat you from the bench.

The Panthers are just the sort of team that can pull a plan like that off. And there are a couple of guarantees for this game. First, the Panthers won’t run it down the field in the first drive and then rely on Jake and Jake alone the rest of the game.

Second, there will be someone on Larry Fitzgerald at all times. Count on it.

And count on one of the best efforts from a Panthers team in years. This is a great candidate for a victory on the road.

Carolina leads the series 6-3

 

Week Five, at the New Orleans Saints

2008 Record: 8-8
2008 Offensive Rank: First (1st in passing, 28th in rushing)
2008 Defensive Rank: 23rd (23rd in Passing, 17th against the run)

After Arizona, this is going to feel like an “out of the frying pan, into the fire” game for the Carolina defense. And for the second straight week, the offense will be having fun out there.

The 2008 edition of the New Orleans Saints was marked by an ability to seemingly move the ball at will. But as effective as they were on offense, they were bad on defense. To address this, they added two critical pieces to their team.

The first is attitude. The Saints brought in defensive coordinator Greg Williams to add toughness, but as he showed in Jacksonville there’s only so much you can do when you don’t have strong personnel.

Williams’ scheme is fast, attacking, and oriented towards forcing turnovers. The secondary is required to blitz, cover, and tackle. Without talent though, there’s not a lot that can be done.

So the Saints went out and signed Jabari Greer from Buffalo to play at one cornerback position and at the other will probably go with Tracy Porter, who looked good in the 10 games he played last year.

Roman Harper will likely line up at strong safety while the second critical piece of their defensive rebuild will take the free safety spot, former Ohio State star Malcolm Jenkins.

Jenkins is just a rookie, but he should immediately become the most talented player in the New Orleans secondary.

The linebackers boast the presence of Jonathan Vilma, but they also return Scott Fujita and Scott Schanle. Both topped 100 tackles a year ago, but when the tackles are coming five yards off the line of scrimmage that’s not a lot to brag about.

On the line, Sedrick Ellis had a decent rookie year, but had to deal with nagging injury issues. He could use some help inside but didn’t really get much. The Saints signed Rod Colman from Atlanta, but he’s 33 and not known for his ability to stuff the run.

At the ends, the Saints have two chronic underachievers in Charles Grant and Will Smith. Both of them will miss the first four games in 2009 for violating in the League’s drug policy.

On offense the Saints return Drew Brees, who’s possibly the best .500 NFL quarterback in history.

In ways he personifies the Saints.  No one gets better stats, but his lifetime record as a starter is just 55-51.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas will return in the backfield, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey will be healthy, and the line will be good again. There’s no reason to think the Saints won’t score as much as they did in 2009. This is the best offense in the NFL.

But last year the best offense in the NFL did nothing more than break even. The Saints were terrible on the road in 2008, and couldn’t win the close games.

Look for the Saints to stumble out of the gate again, largely due to a complete inability to pressure the opposing quarterback.

They probably won’t get hit by injuries again like they did in 2008, but regardless of the reason, missed games are missed games. Losing both ends for the first four games hurts, particularly for a coach who’s not known for fast starts.

By this time though, they’ll be turning their season around. They’ll be fresh off a home game against Atlanta, a team they’ve owned in recent years, and they’ll be at home and fired up.

But at the same time, Jake Delhomme has an 8-2 record against the Saints, and is undefeated in the Superdome.

New Orleans won’t stop Carolina, and Carolina probably won’t stop the Saints. Between these two teams there’s never a guarantee, and the winner of this one will probably be whoever wins the turnovers battle.

Carolina leads the series 16-12

 

Conclusion

After the first four games, this quarter almost looks like a breather. There are at least two very winnable games here in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, and even though they’re playing on the road the Panthers have won a lot in both Arizona and New Orleans.

Don’t be surprised at a 3-1 quarter here. If the injuries have been manageable and the defense has responded to Meeks’ system, don’t be surprised at 4-0 either.

As in 2008, when the Panthers can run at will they’re probable winners. And none of these four teams has what it takes to shut them down.

Barring a total collapse, the Panthers will be at least 4-4 at the end of this quarter. There’s a very good chance at 5-3, and 6-2 isn’t out of the question. That’s good news heading into the third quarter.

The Panthers have not been great in November under John Fox, but this year they’ll get three of four games at home and all four look like good candidates for W’s.

More on that next week though, when we explore the third quarter of 2009.

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