Trading Calvin Johnson Would Be a Terrible Mistake for the Detroit Lions

Over the past few days, I’ve been seeing a disturbing idea emerge from the Lions faithful.

Many feel that trading Calvin Johnson would be a step in the right direction for this Lions organization, with the hopes that it would move us up in the draft.

Many feel that it’s Ndamukong Suh or bust in this draft, and if the Lions don’t get him, they’re doomed forever.

I feel that all of this is a load of dingo’s kidneys.

Yes, the Lions suck right now. Yes, they’re starting down the barrel of a top four pick in 2010. Yes, they need a defensive lineman. No, this isn’t the way to go.

Suh may be the best option this year, but he is far from the only one. As many have noted, this draft class is rich with talent, as many juniors are opting out early to get their paychecks before the NFL puts a moratorium on enormous rookie salaries. 

Many people also worry about the Lions’ salaries and feel that we cannot afford another top three pick’s contract. Personally, I believe that you cannot worry about such things. As the old saying goes, “You have to spend money to make money.”

Look at the Colts in the late ’90s. They had many top five draft picks but weren’t afraid of one more in Edgerrin James, even with Peyton Manning’s salary on their books. Those two went on to incredible success together.

The Lions aren’t in bad shape right now. They have at least four key positions solidified for next year (QB, WR, TE, and SS). I’m omitting Kevin Smith, as while he’s serviceable, he’s definitely upgradeable. The four positions I’m counting are not. Sure there are better players, but we have the best we can get at those four positions (five if you include Jason Hanson).

As many have noted, we are very weak at the wide receiver position once you look past CJ. This is the primary reason that I believe no trade would be worth losing him over. At No. 4 or higher, we will be able to draft a player that will solidify one more position. Roy was on his way out of Detroit, and we capitalized on it. Calvin’s not going for at least three years, and he’s not showing any signs of disgruntlement.

Yes, Suh would be a key player, but losing one key position (almost entirely) just to gain one is ludicrous—especially when there are alternatives such as Gerald McCoy and Derrick Morgan. Russell Okung’s a good option as well, given our severe lacking on the offensive line. 

In addition, I don’t see a clean situation where we could trade up to guarantee Suh. The candidates to trade CJ to are all below us in the draft order. Yes, we could use that to trade up, but then you’re back to (basically) trading Calvin Johnson for Ndamukong Suh. Now you’ve got a great DT, but no WR. The offense stalls, and the defense ends up with the same field position problems we had this year.

My recommendations:

1. Keep the pick. Get Okung. Now your offense is protected much better. They move the ball, and the field position differences go away. Better Lions.

2. Keep the pick. Get Morgan or McCoy. Now your defensive line is much better. They give the offense better field position.

Of course, there’s option No. 3: Lose out and hope the Rams, Bucs, and Browns all win one more game this year. Now you’ve got No. 1 and can do whatever you want. 

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Trading Calvin Johnson? A Terrible Mistake

Over the past few days, I’ve been seeing a disturbing idea emerge from the Lions faithful. 

Many feel that trading Calvin Johnson would be a step in the right direction for the Lions organization; with the hopes that it would move us up in the draft. 

The feeling that it’s Ndamukong Suh or bust in this draft, and if the Lions don’t get him, they’re doomed forever.

I feel that all of this is a load of dingo’s kidneys. 

Yes, the Lions suck right now.  Yes, they’re starting down the barrel of a top four pick in 2010.  Yes, they need a defensive lineman. 

No, this isn’t the way to go. 

Suh may be the best option this year, but he is far from the only one.  As many have noted, this draft class is rich with talent.  There are many juniors opting out early to get their paycheck before the NFL puts a moratorium on enormous rookie salaries. 

Many people also worry about the Lions salaries and feel that we cannot afford another top-three contract. 

Personally, I believe that you cannot worry about such things.  As the old saying goes, “You have to spend money to make money.”

Look at the Colts in the late ’90s.  They had many top five draft picks, but weren’t afraid of one more in Edgerrin James, even with Peyton’s salary on their books.  Those two went on to win a Super Bowl together.

The Lions aren’t in bad shape right now.  They have at least four key positions solidified for next year—QB, WR, TE and SS. 

I’m omitting Kevin Smith, as while he is serviceable, he’s definitely upgradeable. 

The four positions I’m counting are not.  Sure there are better players, but we have the best we can get at those four positions—five if you include Jason Hanson at kicker.

We are very weak at the Wide Receiver position once you look past CJ. 

This is the primary reason that I believe no trade would be worth losing him over.  At No. 4 or higher, we will be able to draft a player that will solidify one more position. 

Roy Williams was on his way out of Detroit and we capitalized on it.  Calvin’s not going for at least three years, and he’s not showing any signs of disgruntlement.

Yes, Suh would be a key player, but losing one key position—almost entirely—just to gain one is ludicrous. Especially when there are alternatives such as Gerald McCoy and Derrick Morgan. 

Russell Okung is a good option as well, given our severe lacking on the offensive line. 

In addition, I don’t see a clean situation where we could trade up to guarantee Suh.  The candidates to trade CJ are all below us in the draft order. 

Yes, we could use that to trade up, but then you’re back to basically trading Calvin Johnson for Ndamukong Suh.  Now you’ve got a great DT, but no WR. 

The offense stalls, and the defense ends up with the same field position problems we had this year.

 

My recommendations:

1. Keep the pick.  Get Okung.  Now your offense is protected much better.  They move the ball, and the field position differences go away.  Better Lions.

2. Keep the pick.  Get Morgan or McCoy.  Now your defensive line is much better.  They give the offense better field position.

Of course, there is option 3: Lose out, hope the Rams, Bucs and Browns all win one more game this year.  Now you’ve got No. 1 and can do whatever you want. 

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Lions-Bears: Too Many Questions

The questions keep coming.  After a devastating loss against the Chicago Bears, I start wondering if these Lions are improved, or are they the “Same Old Lions.”

Last week, I was drinking the Kool-Aid.  The Lions were coming off their first victory in two years, and the Bears were struggling against a dilapidated Seahawks team.

The Bears game was a confounding game for Lions fans.  We saw what seemed like a mirror image of the Minnesota Vikings game, where the Lions seemed to play two different games, one in each half.  We saw the Chicago offense start in Lions territory repeatedly, as if it were an NCAA overtime. 

We saw the Lions’ special teams forget to tackle. We also saw Stafford have a career day.

Questions, questions.  Too many questions.

How bad was the Special Teams?

Punt returning for Chicago ended at a 17.4 average, kickoff return averaged 47.5 yards.  Comparatively, Detroit didn’t return one punt and 18.7 yards per kickoff return.  Chicago’s average starting position was the Detroit 47 yard line, Detroit’s was the 18 yard line (none past the 30).

Is the Bears’ Special Teams blocking that good or are the Lions that bad at tackling?

Both.  The Chicago Bears have seemed to get it right when it comes to kickoff and punt returns.  Hester in ’07 looked like Mel Gray.  I would have to look back at the play yesterday, but I remember Knox not being touched and running through a hole that Refrigerator Perry could have rumbled through untouched.

How much of a difference was the scoring for the Bears when they started in Lions Territory?

Enormous.  Of the six drives that started in Lions territory, all six resulted in scores: four touchdowns, two field goals, 34 points.  Of the six drives started in Bears territory, only one resulted in a score: the first drive, where Forte broke a 61-yard run to give the Bears a short field.

Has Stafford finally shut up the Culpepper supporters?

I certainly hope so.  Stafford ended the day just short of 300 yards, threw one touchdown and had two bad plays.  His rating for the game was 89.6, which isn’t bad.  He finally endured the hits he was expected to received in his first few games, and while he was shaken up, he’ll be back next week.

This game, and the two next games will be Stafford’s ultimate test.  Chicago sacked him five times, the same number of sacks Stafford succumbed to in the first three games combined.

Pittsburgh will be no less forgiving next week.  The road to Green Bay will feel much the same as this Chicago game.  If Stafford can survive these games with the confidence he’s built, the Lions will be fine.

Was Stafford the right pick over Sanchez?

The jury’s still out.  Against the Saints this week, Sanchez posted a 27.0 Quarterback Rating.  Stafford’s rating against the Saints was 27.4.  I think the critics can shut up now about Sanchez being that much better than Stafford.

Is it time to panic/give up on the season?

Not really.  Before the season started, I felt the Lions would go into the bye week 2-4.  The wins were coming at home against the Vikings and Redskins.  I didn’t feel the Lions would beat the Saints, Bears, Steelers, or the Packers.  Of course, this was before Favre.  The Vikings roared in Ford Field to win that game, but we held AP and the offense, we just made too many mistakes.

Following the break, we have many winnable games.  St. Louis and Cleveland are both winless, and could still be winless when we host them.  Cincinnati’s a bit bi-polar.  They come from behind to beat Pittsburgh, then they barely scrape a win against Cleveland. 

Seattle’s hurting bad.  Baltimore will probably trounce us, but we still have three more division games, two at home.

Did the Lions take a step back, or are they still improving?

I’m leaning toward the “still improving.”  Stafford led his offense to 24 offensive points, most by a team against the Bears defense.  The offense put up nearly 400 yards, also the most by the Bears defense. 

On the drives where the Bears started in their own territory, the Lions forced three three-and-outs and held the Bears twice more without a score.  They nearly held the Bears to a field goal after starting on the Lions’ eight yard line, but a special teams blunder prompted the Bears to go for it at the one yard line, scoring their third touchdown.

Lions Offensive grade?  B-.  They played well in the first half with three touchdowns out of six drives.  They stalled in the second half, with one field goal out of seven drives.

Lions Defensive grade? C.  They didn’t have much to work with, but they were more impressive than the score indicated.  The stand after the interception was impressive, but died when they had to retake the field. 

They played badly with their backs behind the wall, but had a few sparks.  Hard not to give up highlights when the midfield logo is in front of you all the time.

Lions Special Teams?  F.  No two ways around it, the Special Teams stunk up Soldier Field.  An offsides penalty allows the Bears to go for a TD instead of a field goal, the second half kickoff return goes for a 102 yard touchdown with the runner barely (if at all) touched, and the next kickoff following a Hanson field goal is returned to the Detroit 47, resulting in a Chicago touchdown drive. 

Listen to the announcer talk about the Kickoff Out of Bounds penalty at the end of the first half and how Schwartz should choke Hanson for that one. 

Funny thing was, Detroit’s two ensuing kickoffs resulted in a kickoff-return touchdown and Chicago starting on Detroit’s 47.  If he kicked out of bounds, Chicago would have started at their own 40.  Would we have seen a different game?

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Lions-Saints: Finding Some Positives

We lost big time to a certain playoff team in the New Orleans Saints.  I like seeing that the coach puts up a front of “everybody sucked”, but is it really that bad? 

Sure, we gave up the most passing TDs (tied) in Saints QB history, we let up a 14-point lead early, and our rookie QB has a rating of 27.4 after a 3 INT-0 TD performance, but there ARE some positives that show this won’t be another 0-16 season.

For that matter, it will be far from it.

Anybody who was expecting an upset Sunday had their heads in the clouds (or a pitcher of BEvERage).  New Orleans had the best ranked offense in 2008 and didn’t lose much from that team. 

Our pass defense was ranked 27th, and didn’t beef up enough to warrant any problems for the New Orleans passing attack. 

I fully expected a loss to come from this, but I was pleasantly surprised at the Lions team that played yesterday.  I saw bright spots that I didn’t see last year. 

I saw possibilities of repeating last year’s mistakes that didn’t blossom.  I saw a Lions team that is no longer the worst team in the NFL.

27 points: The Detroit Lions scored more points in this game than they did in any game last year.  Yes, it is true that some of that was scored by the defense, but points are points.  The most Detroit scored last year was 25, when they took the lead against Green Bay in Week 3.  They were up 25-24 then promptly threw the towel as they ended up getting blown away 48-25.  The Saints defense isn’t great, but I would have given anything to see the Lions score 27 points last year.

Repeating last year’s mistakes: The Lions were down 14-0 very early in the game.  They had just given up excellent starting position to the Saints twice, which the Saints gobbled up like breakfast. 

After the Lions kicked a field goal to bring it to 14-3, they did not give up the third touchdown to the NFL’s top-ranked offense.  Their defense stepped up, I don’t know how, and stymied the Saints for two consecutive drives.

Good special teams play: After the second 3-and-out by the Saints, Northcutt returns the punt 43 yards to put the Lions into scoring position.  This leads the Lions to their closest margin at 14-10. 

After New Orleans widens the margin by another two TDs, the Lions don’t give up.  They recover a muffed punt by Reggie Bush to give the Lions another chance to bring it within two scores. 

They also block a field goal right at the end of the half to keep the margin where it was.

One sack on Stafford: That’s right, one.  For a Lions team that has averaged around three a game for the last couple years, that’s huge. 

The Offensive Line has stepped up their game.  For as much as the Saints were calling for “fresh meat” and “blood” in this opener, they really didn’t get to Stafford as much as they wanted. 

Stafford didn’t look great, but when a team’s down 14, the defense is looking for the pass.  He’ll get hit and hurried much more next week against the Williams sist..err Tackles. 

Zero turnover differential: They intercepted Brees on what should have been a touchdown throw.  I was fearful when I saw that flea-flicker until they panned downfield and I saw that the Lions didn’t bite. 

Last year, there would have been no blue shirts around, but we actually broke up a trick play and stole the ball.  We matched last year’s interception total for the defensive secondary, and I believe that we’ll pass it next week.

Defense showed signs of life: Nice hits by Delmas, an interception on Brees, a fumble recovery for a touchdown. 

While we gave up a fantasy player’s dream, we did show signs that weren’t around last year.  Our defense is better.  Still bottom half, but not the worst anymore. 

Stafford faced the worst situation a QB ever wants to start with: Down seven points off the bat, Stafford was battling from behind the entire game.  Their first drive, where the offense was trying to establish its image, was a bust. 

The next drive, they were now down by fourteen, looking downfield from their own 20.  Stafford did not choke, and led the team down the field to get their first score of the season. He went 3-of-4 for 37 yards, which was not bad for the drive. 

Unfortunately, they could not convert on a third-and-1 and had to kick the FG.  He left that drive 4-of-6 with 41 yards, and no INTs.  Not bad for a start. 

After the Lions gave up another two scores, he had another great chance.  It was a bad call, probably not only for him but the coaches as well.  With 39 seconds to go and within field goal range, the Lions should have been more conservative. 

They needed any points they could have gotten, and they got none.  Personally, I thought they should have thrown a Hail Mary with the last play.  What’s the worst that could happen?

While the second half counts, it should be noted that the Lions were down by three scores.  They made a valiant effort in the third quarter, but in a shootout between a rookie and a Pro-Bowl Quarterback, the veteran’s going to win every time.  It doesn’t matter if the rookie is Matt Stafford or Peyton Manning.

Overall, the Lions played well, considering the opponent and the situation.  If you compare the play yesterday to the play against the Falcons last season, you’ll see the difference. 

They will probably see this situation twice more this year: against the Steelers, whose passing offense is better than ever, and the Cardinals.  They will definitely lose to the Steelers, whose defense is better than the Saints, but they might show a similar tenacity against the Cardinals.

Next week, we see the Vikings in the Silv..err Ford Field.  Last year we lost by two.  At the time Orlovsky ran out of the end zone, I was just glad they didn’t get sacked for a TD (or Orlovsky get hurt).

Little did I realize that it would be a defensive struggle with that being the deciding score.  I don’t think the Vikings improved that much over last year.  The defense is still solid as ever; can’t improve much there. 

The offense picked up a geriatric Farve, who will give enough to keep Jackson on the pine.  I actually see a similar score this year, but no Stafford Safety.  It could be a 13-10 game in favor of the Lions. 

Sure our defensive line isn’t great, but I think our linebackers will help holding Peterson to an average game.  I put more money on our linebackers stopping a great run game than I do the best passing game in the NFL.

Next week’s line will probably be 12 points, the same as the line for this weeks game.  Detroit will cover that, mark my words. 

I’m not guaranteeing a win, but I think this is a great chance for us to shake off last year’s 0-16 record and prove we’re not the worst anymore.

On an additional note: Will St. Louis be the worst?  I actually went through their schedule.  Aside from the Lions, they have Green Bay, San Francisco and Jacksonville as the only sub-500 teams they play this year. 

They might be 0-15 coming home to play San Francisco.  Will they blow it and win a game, or will the Lions’ 2008 season be matched (or exceeded in point differential?)

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