Super Bowl 2009: Rivers and Rodgers Will Duel As Chargers Face Packers

Get your popcorn ready.

Better yet, get your comments ready, because here comes the big one:

Green Bay will face San Diego in the Super Bowl.

THIS SEASON.

Bold prediction you might say. Call me a fool will you? Even say I am crazy perhaps?

Go ahead. What is the fun in making a prediction if you know what is going to happen?

I can not name a single team that is locked for the playoffs that does not have a great chance to reach the Super Bowl. I also can not name a single team that is a lock for the Super Bowl. So if everyone is eligible, why not these two?

I will explain why both should finish atop their collective conferences. I look forward to any type of reception I get.

AFC:

San Diego is arguably the hottest team in the AFC. They are playing as well or better than any other team in the league, and with Indy suffering their first loss, there is no longer an “invincible” label on any team.

Phillip Rivers is a touchdown machine, rarely turns it over, and can make any throw at any time. He also gets great protection regardless of which lineman is hurt during a given week. If not for Brees and Manning having stellar years, Rivers would probably be the unanimous MVP.

Rivers is complimented by a slew of talented receivers, including two giants among secondaries. Vincent Jackson (6’5”) and Antonio Gates (6’4”) provide matchup nightmares for any defense, and if you put too many defenders on them, Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd will eat the single coverage up all day long.

Running backs LaDanian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles, and Jacob Hester can hit the home run on any play. All three are capable of running the ball as well as being excellent receivers out of the backfield.

Match that red-hot offense with a stalwart defense featuring Shawne Merriman, Shaun Phillips, Larry English, Antonio Cromartie, and Quentin Jammer, and you have a recipe for disaster.

This front seven will eat your QB alive, and if he somehow gets the ball away, this aggressive and opportunistic secondary is ready to pick it off and run it back at any given moment.

The Chargers are averaging 29 points and 360 yards of offense per game. Their defense is allowing 20 points and 326 yards. The Chargers are scoring nine more points and accumulating 30 yards more their opponents.

So we know why they are good football team. Why will they beat their opposition en route to the Super Bowl?

I believe their best competition will come from the Colts, Pats, and Bengals.
Here is why I believe each team to be inferior to the Chargers:

Indy:

I liked the Colts chances if they went 16-0, or at least lost while their starters were playing. Now they have two monkeys on their back. This year’s version of the Colts will not have the chance to prove they know how to rebound from a loss that matters, and they will have to deal with the “Super Bowl or bust” label they branded themselves with when they passed on perfection. I sense a massive collapse brewing in Indy.

Peyton Manning is playing inspired football, but he has not had to go head to head with a team as talented as San Diego in 2009. They are short handed and will have to deal with their first dose of adversity in the playoffs. Sounds like a one-and-done kind of scenario to me.

They are 0-2 against the Chargers in the last two playoff games.

Patriots:

New England is not the smash mouth team they once were, and have not shown they can play with the big boys this season. Their biggest matchups of the season against the Broncos, Colts, and Saints were all losses. The losses to the Jets and Broncos may help them get fired up for whichever team they face in the wild-card round, but I do not see them getting past the divisional round.

They are 2-0 in recent matchups against the Chargers in the playoffs, but those were different teams and different times.

Bengals:

They have had to deal with just about every physical and emotional problem that can hamper a team, and it has not slowed them down. They have talent on each side of the ball and the veterans on this team are hungry for a title.

The difference is that Carson Palmer seems to wait until the game is getting too high pressure before he will start taking over. This will be a “too little too late” problem if he does this against the Chargers. San Diego has the athletic corners to cover OchoCinco, Caldwell, and Coles, as well as the front seven can contain Cedric Benson.

The Bengals lost a 27-24 thriller to San Diego in week 15. This game was supposed to be a tribute to the recent death of receiver Chris Henry. If they can’t win during an emotional regular season game that helped lock the Chargers into the No. 2 seed, I do not think they will beat the Chargers when everything is on the line for both teams.

The Chargers seem to be the team to beat in the AFC, even though they own the second best record. This team is battle tested and hungry. The Colts and Pats already have won trophies this decade, so they will not be able to match the Chargers desire. The Bengals just don’t seem to know how to play an entire game anymore. You cannot always play so-so for three quarters and then win in the waning moments of the fourth.

NFC:

Even if this conference is supposedly the inferior one, each of the six teams already locked in are riddled with talented veterans. There really isn’t one team that stands out as the clear juggernaut, but there are a couple that have been red-hot lately. It is just my humble opinion that the Packers will prevail. Here is why:

Green Bay boasts one of the best offenses in the league. They are averaging 28 points and 380 yards per game (both totals rank fourth in the league). They have failed to break 20 points just once (a 17-7 victory over Dallas). They gave up way too many sacks in the first half of the year, but have made the necessary adjustments and are currently winners of six of their last seven contests.

This offense can do it all. Aaron Rodgers has shown he can make every kind of throw, and is deceptively mobile. He has thrown for more than 4,000 yards for the second straight year, and leads all active QB’s in rushing yards. His 29 touchdowns against only 7 interceptions proves he can score at will and take care of the football at the same time.

The offensive line has improved since re-signing veteran right tackle Mark Taucscher, and the running game has been resurgent as a result. Ryan Grant, Ahman Green, and Brandon Jackson are all capable of running up the gut or catching passes out of the backfield, and are averaging a combined 118 yards per game.

If you are looking for a depleted receiving corps, look elsewhere. Green Bay has one of the deepest and most talented group of wideouts. Starters Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are both deep threats who can also make tough catches over the middle. Backups James Jones and Jordy Nelson have become proven targets against the league’s best secondaries, as they usually enjoy single coverage while defenses game-plan around Driver and Jennings.

Second year tight end Jermichael Finley is a matchup nightmare, as he is faster than most linebackers, and is far taller than most safeties. His size and soft hands make him a great target at any point on the field, but he is deadly in the red-zone. Backups Spencer Havner and Donald Lee are both capable, but both lack the big play ability Finley brings to the table.

Green Bay’s defense ranks first in the NFC, and second in the NFL. They are allowing a league low 85 rushing yards per game, and just 205 yards passing. Opposing offenses have averaged just 19 points per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

Let me clear this up:

Green Bay is averaging 28 points and 380 yards while their defense is holding opponents to just 19 points and 290 yards.  A differential of 9 points and 90 yards is a very healthy number. Green Bay also ranks first in turnover differential with +22.

The defense is lead by all-pro all-everything captain Charles Woodson. This guy can cover like Deion, pass rush like Strahan, and tackle like Lambert. His aggressive playing style has catalyzed the 3-4 scheme, and led to many opportunities for some otherwise unsung heroes.

The front seven is ferocious. Linemen Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, and Johnny Jolly are quickly emerging as one of the best lines in football. All have immense pass rushing abilities, and are quick to stop the run as well. Linebackers Clay Matthews, Nick Barnett, AJ Hawk, Brandon Chillar, and Brad Jones are becoming a fearsome group. All of them have immense run and pass coverage abilities, and can beat the stuffing out of a QB.

The secondary is loaded as well.

Previously mentioned Charles Woodson is having another pro-bowl year, as is safety Nick Collins. They are joined by journeyman Tramon Williams and Atari Bigby. All four can lay out a receiver just as easy as picking off the pass. The loss of all-pro Al Harris stung at first, but Williams has done a standup job filling his cleats.

Coordinator Dom Capers has done a phenomenal job transitioning the team into the new scheme, and they are getting hot just when it really counts. Other than a five-hundred yard passing nightmare courtesy of Pittsburgh, this defense has been playing lights out since mid-season.

So why is this the best team in the conference? It is not because Green Bay is simply superior. It is because each of their opponents are fatally flawed.

New Orleans:

The Saints have proven over the past couple of weeks that they have severe weaknesses. Shut down the run and cover 2 deep, and suddenly the offense looks incomplete. Drew Brees is turning the ball over way too much, and the running backs are all backups at best.

The talented group of wideouts is suddenly inconsistent, since only Meachum seems to get open on a frequent basis. Losses to Dallas and Tampa Bay, coupled with dangerously close calls against Atlanta and Washington have to be recognized as troubling.
The offense has been held to 17 points in the each of the last two games, and both were losses. The defense has become a cause for concern as well as they are just not shutting down opponents the way they were up until midseason.

This team has no proven track record in the postseason, and until they prove us all otherwise, I see no reason to give them the benefit of the doubt, especially with their recent decline on both sides of the ball. They will most likely rest their starters in week 17 and enter the playoffs cold, rusty, and still wondering how tough they are.

Minnesota:

The recent problems between Favre and Childress could not have come with worse timing. The locker room is a divided mess, Adrian Peterson can’t seem to gain more than three yards per carry, and the offensive line, once a mainstay, is falling apart.
Oh, and the secondary just got burned for fourtouchdowns by Jay Cutler. Things look bleak indeed.

Jared Allen has been non-existent recently, EJ Hendersen is gone for the year, and all-pro cover man Antoine Winfield’s age may have finally caught up with him. The only one you can count on right now is old man winter himself, Brett Favre. I do not like their chances if Favre has to deal with the pressure of carrying the team in a win or go home situation. (hint: they are 1-3 in the last 4 contests, all were must win games for playoff seeding…)

This team has little to no recent playoff success, and unless they make some quick fixes, this ship will sink fast. If they face Dallas or Philly in the wild card, look out for a fast exit.

Philadelphia:

The offense can score at will, and the defense is full of talented playmakers that love to eat a QB alive. That being said, all is not well.

Brian Westbrook is playing here and there while recovering from a pair of concussions. No one knows how much if any playing time he will see this postseason. An already injury riddled offensive line just lost their star center.
LeSean McCoy is a fair impression of Brian Westbrook, but I do not want a rookie RB in the playoffs determining my offensive output?

DeSean Jackson really struggled against Champ Bailey, and each of the teams Philly will face in the playoffs have at least one great cover corner.

Philly as a team gave up a lot of plays and points to a so-so Denver team last week, and will face a tough must win game against Dallas on Sunday. They very nearly let San Francisco back into what should have been a blow out win two weeks ago. They allowed massive amounts of offense to the Giants three weeks ago, and came out alive due more to New York’s depleted secondary rather than a great offensive scheme.

Long story short, this is another team that has yet to prove they can win consistently when it matter most. This week will be their biggest test, and how they fare should be an image of what is to come.

Dallas:

The Cowboys have been way too inconsistent to predict correctly, but I will do my best. As they currently stand, they are capable of a deep playoff run. The offense is finally balanced. Romo has tightened the screws and become a much more efficient field general, and Miles Austin is the real deal. As a whole, the offense can attack from any part of the field, and has the receivers to get the deep ball in play.

The defense is coming together at the right time, finally playing the way they were built to. Ware and the front seven are racking up sacks, and the secondary is playing just well enough. No one other than Ware is having a great year save for Keith Brooking, but two linebackers do not a defense make.

Cover corners Terrance Newman, Orlando Scandrick  and Mike Jenkins are all well rounded players, but I want to see how they perform in a must win matchup with Philly this weekend. If they pass that test, great. If not, it could be another decade before Dallas wins a playoff game.

Special teams is a massive concern, especially when it comes time for a field goal. Nick Folk was cut and Shaun Suisham was so inconsistent that he was cut from the lowly ranks of the Redskins.

Dallas has not won a playoff game in the current decade, and until they do, I will keep predicting quick exits in the second season.

Arizona:

This year’s Cardinals squad is full of questions and not so many answers. Kurt Warner is playing great, unless the defense applies pressure. Beanie Wells is running great, unless the defense tackles him. Larry Fitzgerald is catching everything, unless a corner and safety cover him.

Lets face it, this offense is not the dominant well oiled machine we saw last season. Boldin and Breaston are not having the breakout performances we saw in 2008, and so defenses are loading up against Fitzgerald. Beanie Wells is an inconsistent runner in the mold of Adrian Peterson, and fumbles just like him.

The defense is unable to figure out a way to stop the run and the pass, especially the pass. They have been torched for an average of 233 yards per game, ranked 22nd in the NFL. They have allowed just 19 points per game, but only score 24 on average.
The offense has been held to 17 or fewer points four times this season, all losses.
The defense is allowing nearly 350 yards to the opposition, which will not get it done. The offense averages just 354, not nearly enough to outgain the enemy on a consistent basis.

Chalk full of talented playmakers that can’t seem to bring it all together, this Arizona team is in desperate need. They entered the post-season last year on a tumble, and ended up in the Super Bowl, so I am not ruling anything out.

The difference may be that this year’s crop of teams seems a lot deeper, so look out.
It looks like the clock is about to strike midnight on this Cinderella story, turning Kurt Warner into the proverbial pumpkin.

Green Bay has had to deal with a lot of adversity this season, having to bounce back from losing both Favre Bowls as well as being the first team to drop a game to Tampa Bay. They are 6-1 since midseason, and show no signs of slowing down. Their one loss during that stretch, a one point last second disappointment against a Steelers team with their backs against the wall. It was also a non-conference game that had little meaning for the Packers.

This team is battle tested, and might be the NFC’s version of San Diego. I conclude that both will make it to the Super Bowl. If I happen to be correct, I will be happy to write a preview article showcasing which team will emerge victorious.

I would like to thank anyone who gave their time to reading this novel, and look forward to your responses. Happy Holidays to all.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

The Ship Is Sinking: Favre and Childress Rowing in Opposite Directions

I have a simple holiday wish this year.

Brett Favre needs to hire Jackie Moon to be his new agent. Bus Cook is no longer getting it done.

Jackie Moon was the owner, general manager, coach, and star forward of the Flint Tropics.

Brett is clearly only happy when he is calling all the shots.

The ol’ gunslinger is clearly one of the all time greats. And perhaps he is one of the most underrated football minds.

He clearly wants the kind of freedom that Peyton Manning enjoys. Manning is given “suggestions” from his offensive coordinator and then makes the decision at the line which play will work best. He is trusted to make the right call in order to give his team the best chance.

Favre has clearly proven he is capable of the big play in the biggest moments. He should be given the chance to call his own plays.

Brad Childress will never allow that to happen.

Childress is an old school coach, who believes players should play and coaches should coach. His play calling is predictable at best and rarely throws a knot into the plans of the defense. He believes his play call will beat any defense if his players execute.

With how talented defensive players are today, that may be the most naïve game plan you could draw up.

That is not to say coaches from the past would not do well if thrown into the mix today. Coaches such as Lombardi, Walsh, or Knoll would succeed if brought on since they were clearly innovative minds. 

With the amount of knowledge and ability necessary to play the quarterback position, you need to be a coach on the field. And you need the freedom to audible.

One of Favre’s favorite moments of his career came during his Super Bowl victory in 1996.

During his first offensive series, he approached the line, noted the defense was in a formation he liked, and audibled to a deep route for Andre Rison.

The result was a touchdown and a big time momentum swing.

Knowing your QB has the ability to spot a weakness in a defense and refusing to grant him the ability to change to a play he is more comfortable with is downright sloppy coaching.

No one is going to say Childress is a great coach.

He has long been faced with a locker room that spat at his play calling. He has been blessed with owners ready to pay big for the best players. He has been given too much lenience. Perhaps it is time for ownership to put a leash on him similar to the ones his players are forced into.

When you have a roster as talented as Minnesota’s, there should be no excuse. You cannot tell me the players are not trying their best. Everyone on that roster is hell bent on a Super Bowl berth. They simply need the handcuffs removed.

How Childress got the job in the first place is a mystery.

He had stacked rosters in Philadelphia that never won a title. Between himself and offensive guru Andy Reid, a team featuring Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, and Brian Westbrook in their collective primes were unable to win when it counted most.

Now the Vikings appear ready to de-rail a championship contender that was on the right track.

Brett Favre feels underappreciated, and he should.

He has personally raised the level of play around him, similar to the way Peyton Manning  and Drew Brees have done.

He is having one of the best seasons in a storied career. Many are saying it is the best ever, but I don’t know what stats they are looking at.

He threw for far more yards in 1995, and will not come close to the 39 touchdowns he tossed in 1996.

He is 10-3 this season, and can only hit the same 13-3 mark he built in 1996 and 2007.

He is enjoying the best completion percentage and QB rating of his life, but without large numbers of touchdowns and yards I am not sure really how important those numbers are.

Favre obviously enjoyed the most success under coach Mike Holmgrene, who was recently hired to be the president of the Browns.

Can you imagine if a great coach like Shanahan or Marriucci was brought on board? And then Favre joined them?

I would have to believe that would be a dream come true for sports fans everywhere.

Favre has limited say in anything that happens in the current regime.

He has lobbied for star players in the past, and I have to believe he will want a big name receiver this offseason if the team continues to be inconsistent in the passing game. Rice and Harvin will become major threats in the near future, but are not quite there.

I do not believe the Vikings in their current form will beat a team such as the Colts or Saints.

I do not believe Favre in his current status will be effective.

In order for him to be the most effective and stop the complaining, perhaps it is time he purchase, run, coach, and star for a team in the newly formed UFL.

If not, perhaps a trade with the Browns is in order.

Barring a Super Bowl vicotry, I do not expect to see Favre in a Viking jersey next season.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

The Ship Is Sinking: Favre and Childress Rowing in Opposite Directions

I have a simple holiday wish this year.

Brett Favre needs to hire Jackie Moon to be his new agent. Bus Cook is no longer getting it done.

Jackie Moon was the owner, general manager, coach, and star forward of the Flint Tropics.

Brett is clearly only happy when he is calling all the shots.

The ol’ gunslinger is clearly one of the all time greats. And perhaps he is one of the most underrated football minds.

He clearly wants the kind of freedom that Peyton Manning enjoys. Manning is given “suggestions” from his offensive coordinator and then makes the decision at the line which play will work best. He is trusted to make the right call in order to give his team the best chance.

Favre has clearly proven he is capable of the big play in the biggest moments. He should be given the chance to call his own plays.

Brad Childress will never allow that to happen.

Childress is an old school coach, who believes players should play and coaches should coach. His play calling is predictable at best and rarely throws a knot into the plans of the defense. He believes his play call will beat any defense if his players execute.

With how talented defensive players are today, that may be the most naïve game plan you could draw up.

That is not to say coaches from the past would not do well if thrown into the mix today. Coaches such as Lombardi, Walsh, or Knoll would succeed if brought on since they were clearly innovative minds. 

With the amount of knowledge and ability necessary to play the quarterback position, you need to be a coach on the field. And you need the freedom to audible.

One of Favre’s favorite moments of his career came during his Super Bowl victory in 1996.

During his first offensive series, he approached the line, noted the defense was in a formation he liked, and audibled to a deep route for Andre Rison.

The result was a touchdown and a big time momentum swing.

Knowing your QB has the ability to spot a weakness in a defense and refusing to grant him the ability to change to a play he is more comfortable with is downright sloppy coaching.

No one is going to say Childress is a great coach.

He has long been faced with a locker room that spat at his play calling. He has been blessed with owners ready to pay big for the best players. He has been given too much lenience. Perhaps it is time for ownership to put a leash on him similar to the ones his players are forced into.

When you have a roster as talented as Minnesota’s, there should be no excuse. You cannot tell me the players are not trying their best. Everyone on that roster is hell bent on a Super Bowl berth. They simply need the handcuffs removed.

How Childress got the job in the first place is a mystery.

He had stacked rosters in Philadelphia that never won a title. Between himself and offensive guru Andy Reid, a team featuring Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens, and Brian Westbrook in their collective primes were unable to win when it counted most.

Now the Vikings appear ready to de-rail a championship contender that was on the right track.

Brett Favre feels underappreciated, and he should.

He has personally raised the level of play around him, similar to the way Peyton Manning  and Drew Brees have done.

He is having one of the best seasons in a storied career. Many are saying it is the best ever, but I don’t know what stats they are looking at.

He threw for far more yards in 1995, and will not come close to the 39 touchdowns he tossed in 1996.

He is 10-3 this season, and can only hit the same 13-3 mark he built in 1996 and 2007.

He is enjoying the best completion percentage and QB rating of his life, but without large numbers of touchdowns and yards I am not sure really how important those numbers are.

Favre obviously enjoyed the most success under coach Mike Holmgrene, who was recently hired to be the president of the Browns.

Can you imagine if a great coach like Shanahan or Marriucci was brought on board? And then Favre joined them?

I would have to believe that would be a dream come true for sports fans everywhere.

Favre has limited say in anything that happens in the current regime.

He has lobbied for star players in the past, and I have to believe he will want a big name receiver this offseason if the team continues to be inconsistent in the passing game. Rice and Harvin will become major threats in the near future, but are not quite there.

I do not believe the Vikings in their current form will beat a team such as the Colts or Saints.

I do not believe Favre in his current status will be effective.

In order for him to be the most effective and stop the complaining, perhaps it is time he purchase, run, coach, and star for a team in the newly formed UFL.

If not, perhaps a trade with the Browns is in order.

Barring a Super Bowl vicotry, I do not expect to see Favre in a Viking jersey next season.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Times Are a Changing For Belichick, Brady

Bill Belichick can no longer handle being a head coach in today’s NFL.

 

The stress has clearly gotten to him.

 

You never want to see a coach wild eyed and wringing his hands in the waning moments of a crucial game.

 

If you have won three superbowls in the course of 10 years, it really doesn’t matter what you do after that—but it is still in your best interest not to embarrass yourself or derail your legacy.

 

That is why fans and haters alike are able to forgive the spygate/eff you season of 2007.

 

Belichick and his assistants set out to embarrass every single opponent they faced, and could not make good decisions in the most critical moments of the biggest game on the biggest stage.

 

The Patriots coaching staff made many of those same mistakes last night, and were it not for a talent laden roster, I am not sure Bill (one of the best defensive minds in the game) is able to compete with the way defenses are built now.

 

His schemes are no longer confusing opponents, and his players are getting younger each season.

 

At the peak of their dynasty, the Pats would employ a veterans-only roster, compiled of all-pro linebackers and some of the nastiest corners and safeties to play the game.

 

Those days are long gone.

 

Never wanting to pay one of his own defenders what he is clearly worth, Belichick always used free agency to bring in other veterans, choosing experienced and intelligent players over youthful and inexperienced players.

 

It was as if the Patriots had a sign at the players entrance that read “Must be leaning towards 30 and possess a laundry list of nasty hits to apply”.

 

The current defensive roster is comprised of youthful, inexperienced players that seem to tire too quickly and fail to live up to the expectations the “grey-beards” have set for them.

 

During all those championship runs, the Patriots employed a much different offense.

 

The job of the quarterback was to manage the game, control the clock with lots of run plays, and complete short and intermediate passes.

 

My oh my how the times are changing.

 

The Patriots seemingly went from a run first, team-first offense to a pass first, me-first attack.

 

Watching and listening to Tom Brady the last few seasons, it’s clear the success of the offense has boosted his ego beyond control.

 

As a QB, he obviously loves to throw the ball. But he lacks many of the game changing dynamics that make Peyton Manning a coach on the field.

 

Faced with 4^th and 2 on his own 29 yard line, coach Bill opted to go for it.

 

He sent the offense back on the field, with the ever dependable Kevin Faulk lined up in the backfield as a check down option for Brady.

 

How many times has Faulk bailed the offense out by turning short throws into long gains?

 

Countless.

 

So you can see why Belichick thought the gamble would work. He shouldn’t have taken the gamble, but you can see why he did it.

 

What he did not count on is that Brady would fail to check down to the right route.

 

The Colts loaded the box, clearly showing an all out blitz. Brady watched them do this, and failed to audible to a better play.

 

You only need two yards.

 

Throw to Welker or Moss on the outside and let them lean over for the first.

 

Waiting for Faulk to get out of the backfield and cross the marker took too much time against a blitz. The pocket fell back, and Brady was forced to rush his throw.

 

This caused Faulk to try and make an awkward catch falling backward, which rendered the play useless.

 

No one in the stadium doubted that Peyton Manning would capitalize on such a reckless gamble.

 

He had just taken the offense 80 yards in little more than a minute and a half to score. Did anyone think 29 yards were going to stand in his way of sticking it to his biggest rival?

 

By the looks on Brady’s and Billichick’s faces, even they knew the inevitable.

 

It was the same look you saw when younger brother Eli threw the game winning touchdown in the 2007 Superbowl.

 

Side note- The Patriots lost that game by three points and had gone for it on fourth down deep in Giants territory that basically took points off the board. Yet another moment Billicheck will have to live down.

 

So much for comparing Walsh-Montana or Knoll-Bradshaw to Belichick-Brady.

 

I have never seen a Coach-QB combo blow this many big games with bad decisions.

 

Brady should have made a higher percentage throw.

 

Belichick should have punted.

 

Moss and Welker should have been furious.

 

They were both brought in to be big-money playmakers and game-changers. And yet on the most critical play of possibly the most crucial game of the season (in the last several years this matchup usually determines home-field advantage) they were demoted to non-factor status.

 

You have God’s gift to football standing on the field and you don’t trust him enough to throw his way.

 

You have arguably the best slot receiver ever in the game, and you don’t even look his way.

 

You have a career backup at running back, and he is your first and only read.

 

Game-set-match, Manning.

 

This whole argument of who is the better QB can be shut down.

 

Manning is trusted and encouraged to make all the necessary adjustments at the line of scrimmage, and he rarely makes costly errors.

 

So which is it? Is Brady not allowed to adjust the play or did he simply fail to make the right call?

 

Either way, it is clear the Manning has the trust and ability to single-handedly change the outcome of a game.

 

It is also clear that Brady is a much more effective QB when he is relegated to game manager.

 

In the early parts of this season, the Pats tried to employ their pass first offense, and were burned by the Bills and Jets, two teams that rarely gave them problems in the past.

 

Right after those contests, Belichick saw the warning signs and simply reverted back to a run first, team first gameplan that saw the Patriots turn around a season heading towards decline.

 

I can only guess that against an injury depleted Colts secondary and facing a rookie head coach, good ol’ Bill like his chances.

 

Mouth watering, he went right back to his “eff you” gameplan.

 

One-nothing Colts. Since they seem to be the only team equipped on all sides of the ball to compete against the Pats and Randy Moss when he has 176 yards and 2 scores, Bill may not learn the lesson he needs to. Not until an inevitable matchup in the playoffs that is.

 

Great coaches constantly change plans and adjust to what they are faced with. They usually bring in talent on both sides of the ball to create a gameplan that gives them the best chance to win.

 

Decent coaches use an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” gameplan, and ride the coattails of talented players. They will usually ignore the wants and needs of the players they have deemed “replacable” and use state that the system is far more important than any one player.

 

From 2001-2006, Bill Belichick was a great coach. No one questioned his methods, because he would always find a way to beat you when it really counted.

 

From 2007-present, Belichick is a decent coach, who too often gambles and loses. He has not made the proper adjustments, and an argument can be made that he has failed to bring in the proper personnel to make his system effective.

 

Switching from a stalwart, eat you alive defense and a ball control game plan to an offense pass first offense and a young, tired, and ineffective defense has clearly slowed his sprint to the hall of fame.

 

He is wandering away from the Walsh comparisons, and getting ever closer to the Seifert comparisons.

 

Walsh built a dynasty and left during his prime, having changed the way football is played today.

 

Seifert seemingly rode Walsh’s coattails, assisted by the talented offense run by west coast deciple Mike Holmgrene.

 

Seifert won two superbowls with the 49ers, both times shattering the record for biggest winning margin in a game.

 

He took over the Panthers in 1999, and was fired in 2001 after leading the team to a 1-15 record.

 

Billicheck seems to be riding the waves Parcells created, and it is starting to show.

 

Everyone has to hang it up eventually, perhaps it is time for the Patriots to start looking for an heir to the throne.

 

Brady only has 5-6 years left, doesn’t he deserve a coach that cares about what his players can do, not trying to control every single thing they say and do?

 

Losing Josh McDaniels may be the biggest loss the Patriots suffer all season, and that could cripple their hopes for another championship this decade.

 

The Patriots need a new head man, not a coach whoc isn’t quite finished giving the collective sports world “the finger”.

 

Bill Belichick is a good enough coach.

 

In the win-now NFL, good enough just isn’t good enough any more.

 

 

 

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Times Are a Changing For Belichick, Brady

Bill Belichick can no longer handle being a head coach in today’s NFL.

 

The stress has clearly gotten to him.

 

You never want to see a coach wild eyed and wringing his hands in the waning moments of a crucial game.

 

If you have won three superbowls in the course of 10 years, it really doesn’t matter what you do after that—but it is still in your best interest not to embarrass yourself or derail your legacy.

 

That is why fans and haters alike are able to forgive the spygate/eff you season of 2007.

 

Belichick and his assistants set out to embarrass every single opponent they faced, and could not make good decisions in the most critical moments of the biggest game on the biggest stage.

 

The Patriots coaching staff made many of those same mistakes last night, and were it not for a talent laden roster, I am not sure Bill (one of the best defensive minds in the game) is able to compete with the way defenses are built now.

 

His schemes are no longer confusing opponents, and his players are getting younger each season.

 

At the peak of their dynasty, the Pats would employ a veterans-only roster, compiled of all-pro linebackers and some of the nastiest corners and safeties to play the game.

 

Those days are long gone.

 

Never wanting to pay one of his own defenders what he is clearly worth, Belichick always used free agency to bring in other veterans, choosing experienced and intelligent players over youthful and inexperienced players.

 

It was as if the Patriots had a sign at the players entrance that read “Must be leaning towards 30 and possess a laundry list of nasty hits to apply”.

 

The current defensive roster is comprised of youthful, inexperienced players that seem to tire too quickly and fail to live up to the expectations the “grey-beards” have set for them.

 

During all those championship runs, the Patriots employed a much different offense.

 

The job of the quarterback was to manage the game, control the clock with lots of run plays, and complete short and intermediate passes.

 

My oh my how the times are changing.

 

The Patriots seemingly went from a run first, team-first offense to a pass first, me-first attack.

 

Watching and listening to Tom Brady the last few seasons, it’s clear the success of the offense has boosted his ego beyond control.

 

As a QB, he obviously loves to throw the ball. But he lacks many of the game changing dynamics that make Peyton Manning a coach on the field.

 

Faced with 4^th and 2 on his own 29 yard line, coach Bill opted to go for it.

 

He sent the offense back on the field, with the ever dependable Kevin Faulk lined up in the backfield as a check down option for Brady.

 

How many times has Faulk bailed the offense out by turning short throws into long gains?

 

Countless.

 

So you can see why Belichick thought the gamble would work. He shouldn’t have taken the gamble, but you can see why he did it.

 

What he did not count on is that Brady would fail to check down to the right route.

 

The Colts loaded the box, clearly showing an all out blitz. Brady watched them do this, and failed to audible to a better play.

 

You only need two yards.

 

Throw to Welker or Moss on the outside and let them lean over for the first.

 

Waiting for Faulk to get out of the backfield and cross the marker took too much time against a blitz. The pocket fell back, and Brady was forced to rush his throw.

 

This caused Faulk to try and make an awkward catch falling backward, which rendered the play useless.

 

No one in the stadium doubted that Peyton Manning would capitalize on such a reckless gamble.

 

He had just taken the offense 80 yards in little more than a minute and a half to score. Did anyone think 29 yards were going to stand in his way of sticking it to his biggest rival?

 

By the looks on Brady’s and Billichick’s faces, even they knew the inevitable.

 

It was the same look you saw when younger brother Eli threw the game winning touchdown in the 2007 Superbowl.

 

Side note- The Patriots lost that game by three points and had gone for it on fourth down deep in Giants territory that basically took points off the board. Yet another moment Billicheck will have to live down.

 

So much for comparing Walsh-Montana or Knoll-Bradshaw to Belichick-Brady.

 

I have never seen a Coach-QB combo blow this many big games with bad decisions.

 

Brady should have made a higher percentage throw.

 

Belichick should have punted.

 

Moss and Welker should have been furious.

 

They were both brought in to be big-money playmakers and game-changers. And yet on the most critical play of possibly the most crucial game of the season (in the last several years this matchup usually determines home-field advantage) they were demoted to non-factor status.

 

You have God’s gift to football standing on the field and you don’t trust him enough to throw his way.

 

You have arguably the best slot receiver ever in the game, and you don’t even look his way.

 

You have a career backup at running back, and he is your first and only read.

 

Game-set-match, Manning.

 

This whole argument of who is the better QB can be shut down.

 

Manning is trusted and encouraged to make all the necessary adjustments at the line of scrimmage, and he rarely makes costly errors.

 

So which is it? Is Brady not allowed to adjust the play or did he simply fail to make the right call?

 

Either way, it is clear the Manning has the trust and ability to single-handedly change the outcome of a game.

 

It is also clear that Brady is a much more effective QB when he is relegated to game manager.

 

In the early parts of this season, the Pats tried to employ their pass first offense, and were burned by the Bills and Jets, two teams that rarely gave them problems in the past.

 

Right after those contests, Belichick saw the warning signs and simply reverted back to a run first, team first gameplan that saw the Patriots turn around a season heading towards decline.

 

I can only guess that against an injury depleted Colts secondary and facing a rookie head coach, good ol’ Bill like his chances.

 

Mouth watering, he went right back to his “eff you” gameplan.

 

One-nothing Colts. Since they seem to be the only team equipped on all sides of the ball to compete against the Pats and Randy Moss when he has 176 yards and 2 scores, Bill may not learn the lesson he needs to. Not until an inevitable matchup in the playoffs that is.

 

Great coaches constantly change plans and adjust to what they are faced with. They usually bring in talent on both sides of the ball to create a gameplan that gives them the best chance to win.

 

Decent coaches use an “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” gameplan, and ride the coattails of talented players. They will usually ignore the wants and needs of the players they have deemed “replacable” and use state that the system is far more important than any one player.

 

From 2001-2006, Bill Belichick was a great coach. No one questioned his methods, because he would always find a way to beat you when it really counted.

 

From 2007-present, Belichick is a decent coach, who too often gambles and loses. He has not made the proper adjustments, and an argument can be made that he has failed to bring in the proper personnel to make his system effective.

 

Switching from a stalwart, eat you alive defense and a ball control game plan to an offense pass first offense and a young, tired, and ineffective defense has clearly slowed his sprint to the hall of fame.

 

He is wandering away from the Walsh comparisons, and getting ever closer to the Seifert comparisons.

 

Walsh built a dynasty and left during his prime, having changed the way football is played today.

 

Seifert seemingly rode Walsh’s coattails, assisted by the talented offense run by west coast deciple Mike Holmgrene.

 

Seifert won two superbowls with the 49ers, both times shattering the record for biggest winning margin in a game.

 

He took over the Panthers in 1999, and was fired in 2001 after leading the team to a 1-15 record.

 

Billicheck seems to be riding the waves Parcells created, and it is starting to show.

 

Everyone has to hang it up eventually, perhaps it is time for the Patriots to start looking for an heir to the throne.

 

Brady only has 5-6 years left, doesn’t he deserve a coach that cares about what his players can do, not trying to control every single thing they say and do?

 

Losing Josh McDaniels may be the biggest loss the Patriots suffer all season, and that could cripple their hopes for another championship this decade.

 

The Patriots need a new head man, not a coach whoc isn’t quite finished giving the collective sports world “the finger”.

 

Bill Belichick is a good enough coach.

 

In the win-now NFL, good enough just isn’t good enough any more.

 

 

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Are Rodgers, Packers Prepared For “Last Stand” Against Romo, Cowboys?

The time has come for the “Do or Die” attitude.

Cue any cheesy montage music you like, the moment is upon us.

Aaron Rodgers is about to be either the hero or the goat of the Packers’ 2009 campaign.

It is officially the second half of the season, and Green Bay needs to play each game like it is a playoff.

That is a lot of stress and pressure to put on a team for eight contests, but that is the hole they have dug for themselves.

The Packers are a .500 team at the midway point, and they struggled to get there.

They won their prime-time matchup in week one, facing a Chicago team that gave the Packers all they could handle, barely coming out alive thanks to a game ending touchdown pass between Rodgers and Greg Jennings.

The Bears are now 4-5, having lost two in a row (side note: they also struggled to put away Cleveland, which should count as a third straight loss).

The other three wins came easy against St. Louis, Detroit, and Cleveland.

Those are teams with a combined record of 3-21. Not exactly a murderers’ row of opponents.

The four losses came against Cincinnati, Minnesota (twice) and Tampa Bay.

Of those teams, only the Tampa loss is shameful, as Minnesota and Cincy are a combined 13-3.

In the losses to the Vikings and Bengals, the Packers only stayed in the game thanks to a passing attack that exploited the soft underneath coverage provided by defensive coordinators looking to make the offense use large chunks of time.

Since each of their losses has been by 12 points or fewer, it is hard to be too down on the team as a whole, but the offense definitely needs to score quicker, and more often.

On that same note, the defense needs to figure out a way to apply pressure to opposing QB’s. Even thought the run defense has been near top notch, the pass defense leaves more than a little something to be desired.

Last year, even with an injury riddled defensive line, the pass rush still applied enough pressure to force some bad throws.

This helped a talented secondary pick off passes left and right en route to a franchise record for defensive scoring and a very high number in the takeaway column.

The pass rush has not had the same success this season, which has left a lot of open receivers catching passes with relative ease.

Former coach Marv Levy put it best during his first season with the Bills:

“If you can run, pass, catch, block, cover, and tackle better than the other team, you will win.”

The Packers have yet to accomplish this against top-notch talent, but they will have the chance against a red-hot Dallas team this Sunday.

Tony Romo and the offense have been near perfect lately, closing out games with great balance in the running and passing game.

An assortment of great pass catchers featuring Miles Austin, Jason Witten, and Roy Williams will give any secondary fits.

One of the largest and most talented offensive lines in the league will make pass rushing difficult.

A defensive line led by the resurgent DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will pressure an offensive line that has given up a league-high 37 sacks.

Add that to a group of linebackers, corners, and safeties triple-dipped in Pro Bowl talent, and you have one hell of a problem.

The Packers need a tune up game, but they are getting the fight of their lives instead.

They face Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Arizona to finish the season. Only Seattle and Detroit may offer the cupcake games they need, but the rest should be hard-fought battles.

Long story short:

The Packers desperately need a spark. In order for that to happen, several things need immediate change:

They need the offensive line to block more effectively. Keep your quarterback on his feet and good things will happen. Passes will be completed more often and it will keep the defense honest with an actually useful running attack.

They need Aaron Rodgers to start game managing. Don’t stop throwing, just stop throwing as much.

If the defense shows blitz, check down to a slant or another short route. Dump it off to the back if the receivers are covered.

If the defense lines up soft, check to a draw or counter.

If the play is a run and the defense shows blitz, check to a quick out.

Try something different. This inconsistent approach of quick strikes here and there while filling the rest of the play calling with deep routes that cause you to hold on to the ball way too long and take sacks is clearly not working.

The receivers need to get better separation and help out the quarterback. Running your route and remaining near one or more defenders doesn’t help. If you aren’t getting the ball, start getting open. It will help 100 percent of the time.

The offensive coordinator needs to dump the four-and five-wideout packages from his play sheet. Leave an extra lineman or tight end in to block, as this five-man line is not working. Help out your players and they will help you. Give them the tools to succeed, not the wounds to bleed.

The defense needs to find a way to be more aggressive. During preseason as well as week one, Cullen Jenkins, Charles Woodson, and Aaron Kampman celebrated their new 3-4 alignment with regular meetings at the QB.

Somewhere, the effectiveness of the gameplan fell apart as the Packers defense currently ranks 29th in sacks with 13 (1.6 per game).

The secondary has collected a lot of picks with 12, but that has come mostly against cellar-dwelling competition. The Packers never picked off Brett Favre, and their two picks off of Carson Palmer are irrelevant as the Bengals ended up winning anyway.

No one is going to celebrate the fact that you can intercept Jay Cutler (Bears QB, leads the league in interceptions), Derek Anderson (Browns QB, worst rated starting QB), Daunte Culpepper (not good enough to be starting for Detroit) or Marc Bulger (26th rated passer).

So you can confuse four of the worst active QB’s in the current season? Big whoop.

Time to throw those numbers out the window.

Last but not least, the linebackers need to aid the pass rush and cover the short routes better. Either rush the QB into a horrible throw, or at least cover the receivers long enough to buy the d-line more time.

It is time to do things right.

It is time to show this team has pride.

It is time to show this team has heart.

We have known all along this team has talent, but have yet to see them score at will against a worthy opponent.

Its simple:

Win a statement game against a great team and the world will say you have pride and talent.

Lose games you are supposed to be an equal part of, and the world will say you lack heart and perhaps are not as talented as we thought.

The Packers need to win this game.

It doesn’t matter how close or far apart the score is, as long as they win.

Give yourself something to build on, and you have seven more game to sweat the small stuff.

Lose this one, and you then spend seven more games back-pedaling and trying to figure out how to stop the skid. Not the best way to close out a season.

Inevitably analysts and fans alike will compare Brett’s accomplishments to Aaron’s, whether or not the comparisons are fair or warranted.

Brett has his team at 7-1, and now plays the Lions. Look for them to be 8-1 and a near lock for the first round bye.

Aaron has his team at 4-4, desperately trying to stay in the wild card race.

If he wants to stop the madness, Aaron will coolly orchestrate a winning drive against Amercia’s team, a team Brett always had trouble beating.

If he cannot silence the critics this week, A-Rod will probably have to wait until next season to shut down the nay-sayers.

Which brings me back to my original point:

Aaron Rodgers will either be the hero or the goat.

Game on!

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Rodgers and Pack Need Retooling Despite Big Win Over Lions

Being a northwest native, I was always intrigued by Pac-10 football.

The self proclaimed “Conference of Champions” has been fielding great football teams for decades, including the ever dominant USC Trojans.

When Aaron Rodgers started carving up defenses as a junior college transfer at Cal, I watched and wondered how long it would be before the NFL took notice.

When he set school records while completing 23 straight passes against No. 1 USC during a road loss, I wondered how long it would be before he won his first national championship.

When his No. 4 ranked Bears were overlooked by the BCS and dropped to the Holiday Bowl, I wondered how long it would take during the next season before he finished getting his revenge.

Rodgers surprised many when he chose to forgo his senior season and entered the 2005 NFL draft.

Many analysts questioned his size (6’2 210lbs) and his passing mechanics. They questioned whether a Jeff Tedford taught quarterback could make it in the NFL. They questioned his durability.

But they could not question his football intelligence, demonstrated by his obvious knowledge of defensive coverages and the west coast offense, which he was happy to put on display both in the x’s and o’s on the whiteboard, or on the field, for whichever scout(s) cared to view.

He was passed over during 23 grueling draft picks, taken behind Utah’s Alex Smith and just ahead of Auburn’s Jason Campbell.

Smith came from an Urban Meyer built Spread Offense; built more on Smith’s legs and creativity, rather than his arm or brains. He has since been asked to handle the west coast scheme of the 49ers, and has struggled mightily having to stay in the pocket or trying to out run NFL sized defensive ends.

Jason Campbell came from a run heavy offense built around Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown, rarely having to carry any portion of the offense. He has large size and good arm strength, but a game manager in college is hardly the same in the pros.

When Rodgers was drafted No. 24 overall by the Green Bay Packers, I couldn’t help but smile. Here was the kid who had made Cal my favorite team to watch during his two years as a starter, now making the transition to future starter of my favorite pro team.

Brett Favre was and is always fun to watch, but his general disdain for safe play made me cringe. Even when plays went well I could not help but think, how badly it could have been.

I was usually rewarded for my backwards thinking by watching Favre do his worst to match his interception total to his touchdowns.

When the Packers drafted Rodgers, I thought we finally had a guy in place that would work the system in our favor. We finally had a surgeon for a QB, in the mold of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. We finally had a guy who was going to be consistent and dependable.

After watching Favre go through the downs of the 2005 and 2006 seasons, then through the ups of the 2007 campaign, I finally heard the news I had been hoping for.

After showing some pop and sizzle during a game at Dallas in November 2007, Rodgers sparked a cry for playing time. Analysts who questioned if the Packers would survive without Favre got a glimpse of what the future would hold.

The lantern that is Rodgers was doused with Kerosene. The future looked bright indeed.

Favre retired six months later, and the reigns of the Packers were handed over to their new wonder boy.

Spending the summer avoiding the Favre media circus and getting to know his teammates better on and off the field, Rodgers looked poised for a great first season.

He had three years under his belt in the same system, with mostly the same players around him.

He was three years removed from college, so he was absent from the stress and nervous mistakes that plague most rookies as they adjust to the NFL atmosphere.

He had one of the best offensive lines in football to protect him, a quartet of speedy wideouts, and handful of tight ends and running backs to use as escape plans if the pocket broke down.

All this and the team he was handed had just returned from a 13-3 regular season record, capped by a trip to the NFC Championship game.

Things looked very bright, if not blinding.

Rodgers avoided the comparisons to Broadway Brett as he tried to guide his team.

Starting 2-0 with a perfect 4:0 TD to INT ratio, the season was brighter every week.

Then came week three.

In a brutal loss to Tampa, Rodgers threw his first INT and also injured his throwing shoulder. Injuries riddled the defense, and the blocking up front never quite looked right.

Things continued much the same through week 17.

The Packers lost several close contests, and Rodgers seemed to be one of few bright spots on a team full of underachievers.

The defense lost Al Harris, Atari Bigby, Cullen Jenkins, and Nick Barnett to significant injuries.

The offense had most of their playmakers, though that was all in the passing game.

Rodgers, Jennings, and Driver torched secondaries throughout the year, but were undone by their inability to close games thanks in large part to the inconsistent run game.

Rodgers finished with more yards, touchdowns, and fewer interceptions than Favre, while playing behind a shaky line and without a top ten defense.

Favre managed to lead the league in interceptions, was unable to break 4,000 yards, and forgot how to be a competent game manager late in the season during the cold months.

This year is starting eerily similar.

Rodgers is off to a great start, despite a shaky line and a nearly absent rushing game.

The defense is playing much better, thanks in large part to a more aggressive scheme and all the starters being healthy.

The Packers are 3-2, with their two losses coming against Minnesota (6-0) and Cincinnati (4-2). Both of those teams are leading their divisions, and are among the elite teams of the NFL.

I should also mention that both teams narrowly won mostly due to poor pass protection and failed rallies by the Packers. A combined two losses by seven points or fewer to great competition should only harden the battle cries.

The Packers narrowly beat the Bears in week one, despite struggles on offense and defense.

Then came the win against the helpless Rams, who were nearly blown out.

Now the Pack shutout a Detroit team who had Pittsburgh on the ropes, stood toe to toe with the Saints, and came close to defeating the Vikings. This is not the same Lions team from a year ago, but they are not grand competition either.

Detroit was without their starting QB and one of the best wideouts in the game. Still, if your depth on offense is controlled by two of eleven players, the problems may be just beginning.

Green Bay should have a pretty easy go of it next Sunday, as they invade Cleveland looking to hand the Browns their seventh straight loss of the season. Derek Anderson looks awful and the whole team could use a makeover.

After that it’s the showdown in Lambeau, where Rodgers will look for his revenge. Hopefully recently resigned tackle Mark Tauscher can play, because I am not sold on Alan Barbre.

As it stands, It is hard to argue either way who is better.

Brett is clearly the statistical winner, having thrown for more touchdowns, been sacked less, thrown an equal amount of interceptions, and thrown for nearly as many yards. Side note: He is also undefeated.

Aaron is doing everything he can to win games, possibly too much. His line is nowhere near the best in the game, and he knows this.

That means make quick throws or run for your life. He is not always making quick throws, and he doesn’t run as fast as most edge rushers. That is a recipe for disaster.

The Packers need to address their inept blocking, or Matt Flynn better get some 1st team reps in practice.

Rodgers is playing better than most starters in the league, and has not had the ample protection or first rate running backs that Manning, Manning, Favre, or Brees has had the luck to play alongside.

The idea of a great QB is to make those around you better.

So far Rodgers is making his receivers look like heroes and his buddies on the line and in the backfield look like goats.

He needs to get the ball out faster.

Period.

Balance the play calling, and games will swing in your favor.

You cant lobby for more pro bowl tackles, so the least you can do is suggest a punishing running back to split time with Grant.

My suggestion would be call the agent of T.J. Duckett or Duece McAllister. Both are bigger backs that can push the pile and wear out the defensive front, leaving Grant or Jackson to speed around the edge.

This will not fix the o-line, but it will keep defenses honest and make them plan against more than just Rodgers.

Playcalling is a cause for concern.

Rodgers threw 37 times against the Lions, while Grant rushed 24 times.

37 pass plays vs. 24 rushes? That is not balance.

Maybe the o-line isn’t very good, or maybe they are worn out from having to block backwards more than push guys around with the running game.

Whatever the case, the bye week was not used properly.

The coaching staff did little to right the wrongs, and the schedule only gets tougher, with the Vikings, Ravens, Bears, 49ers, and the world champion Steelers to look forward to.

All of these upcoming games feature first rate pass rushers, and solid linebackers to boot.

The kid who was so impressive in college had a balanced attack featuring a 2,000 yard rusher, a pretty good o-line, and some so-so receivers.

Now he has a guy who barely breaks 1,000 yards, an o-line that breaks down after just a couple of ticks, and receivers who can beat anyone if he just gets time to find the openings down field.

If Rodgers can average 250+ passing yards per game in these conditions, one can only hope to see just how great this team can be if they really get going.

If the coaching staff sees the film and fixes things, great.

If not, get a better stable of running backs to take pressure off of the QB.

Either one works, just protect the damn QB.

To put it in perspective, I haven’t been hit since high school.

Rodgers has been hit an average five times per week on Sunday since September 13th.

Something has to give, I just hope it isn’t Rodgers’ collarbone or Femur.

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Return Of The Chedi: Rodgers and His New Defense Look To Desimate All

After extensive looks at the other teams in the conference, I don’t see any reason why Green Bay should not be mentioned along side the teams being predicted to represent the NFC in the 2009 Super Bowl. In order to prove this is more a mathematical approach rather than just one fan’s opinion, I will let the numbers do the talking, along with some Star Wars references to keep you entertained.

    Last year the pack fizzled after a stellar 13-3 2007 campaign that ended with a Brett Favre interception in overtime of the NFC Championship game. 6-10 is no way to follow up being the no. 2 team in your conference the previous season, but several factors influenced the change.

In 2007, the defense was ranked 14th against the run, giving up 102 yards per game and forcing 8 fumbles. The 12th ranked secondary only allowed 210 yards passing per game, along with 19 interceptions. That’s 312 yards per game and 27 takeaways over 16 games for the no. 11 (6th in the NFC) ranked defense in the league. To sum, the Pack were better than 21 of 32 teams at stopping opposing offenses. Better than 65% of your competition? That’s good enough to be elected to office.

The offense was ranked number two, falling short only because the record setting Patriots reeled in the top spot. Being number two behind the best offense in the history of football is pretty sweet. Brett Favre and his troops rolled up over 370 yards and 27 points per game. The number two offense in America also gave up 15 interceptions and 7 fumbles, good enough for a +5 turnover margin. Several wins (5 to be precise) were decided by 7 points or fewer. To compare, 8 wins were won by 10 or more points. The 3 loses were by margins of 7, 10, and 28 points.

To average almost 400 yards on offense and nearly 30 points while winning half of your games by double digits almost grants you a postseason berth alone. But then to extend that by holding your opponents to 18 points and 312 yards per game? That would almost always translate into a super bowl berth.

In this case, however, the Super Bowl came knocking, promising a matchup of the Evil Empire of New England and Spygate versus the original golden boy and his young posse of YAC masters.
Brett answered with a pick in overtime. Season over.

If Billichick and Brady are the Emperor and Darth Vader, Brett must be Obi-Wan and the pick was his eyes closed light saber duel with Vader. Brett takes the fall so that Luke, aka Aaron Rodgers, can guide the pack to glory. Working out pretty well so far, right on cue with the script you might say. In “A New Hope” Luke stumbles around while Obi-Won guides the crew and wows people with how good he is.
After his death, Luke spends most of “Empire Strikes Back”  (aka the 6-10 2008 season) learning from Yoda, and during an impressive fight, gets his hand hacked off by Vader (in this case Vader was out with a knee injury, not uncommon for sith lords who don’t watch their blind side, but Rodgers got hurt all the same, a severe shoulder injury in week four that crippled him for most of the year). Han Solo was frozen in carbonite, going hand in hand with Ryan Grant’s hamstring injury. Leia (the fan base) realizes Han is great despite his grittiness, and that Luke is the man, and no longer gives a crap about Obi-Won (Brett).

The defense looked like a different unit in 2008. They were no. 26 against the run, allowing 131 yards per game and only forcing 9 fumbles. The pass defense was better, ranked no. 12 after allowing 202 yards per game and forcing 22 interceptions. These stats were good enough to get them the no. 20 ranked defense in the league, a far cry from the near top ten unit they had been a year earlier.
On offense, things looked roughly the same between 2007-2008. The Rodgers led Packers rolled up over 350 yards per game and averaged 26 points. Only giving up 21 takeaways, the Pack had a healthy +7 turnover margin, up 2 from a year before. So what was causing all the losses if the defense was middle of the road and taking the ball away left and right? The answer is simple.

The main difference was that the close wins were not materializing. Green Bay lost 7 contests by 7 points or less, 5 of those were on game ending field goals by the opposing teams. Most of the wins came by double digits, so scoring was never a problem. It was stopping other teams from getting solid field position when it counted. Hold a team between the 40’s during the final two minutes and you are likely to get good outcomes. That rarely happened in 2008.

Now that the growing pains of a young team (tied for first with Indianapolis averaging 25.5 years) are apparently over, this group has spent the 2008 offseason maturing in every way possible.

The team hired defensive guru Dom Capers to install an aggressive and multi-faced 3-4 scheme to get pressure on opposing offenses. So far in the preseason the first team has allowed just two scores and led the league in sacks as well as takeaways. Pretty good for a team that finished in the bottom half last year.

Team management knew if they were going to make the transition from a 4-3 to  3-4, more depth at linebacker and defensive tackle were neccessities. To make this happen, Green Bay drafted nose tackle B.J. Raji out of Boston College and outside linebacker Clay Matthews of USC. Star defensive end Aaron Kampman moved to the outside, and A.J. Hawk moved inside. These moves alone give the Packers depth comparable to almost any defense out there.

With a three man front, the Pack can disguise nearly any coverage, and can rush versatile linebackers rather than hefty lineman who were rarely reaching the QB. The Patriots and Steelers have been employing this scheme for over a decade, and neither have the front to back talent the Packers do.

Al Harris and Charles Woodson represent one of the most dominant corner tandems in the league. Their bump and run coverage has been upgraded to a zone scheme, which should only enhance the ability of these very physical corners. N

Nick Collins and Atari Bigby are two of the best safeties in the game, and now have Anthony Smith backing up an already elite defensive backfield. Nick Collins had 7 interceptions last year, putting him right up there with Ed Reed and Troy Polomolu.

Tramon Williams and Will Blackmon are two very capable nickel corners, and both saw extended time last year while Harris was hurt, which did not lead to a decrease in turnovers.

A line backing corps featuring Aaron Kampman, Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk, and Clay Matthews should do if nothing else strike fear into the hearts of opposing tackles and QB’s. If one of these stellar players should get hurt or tired, there are several capable backups such as Brady Poppinga, Brandon Chillar, Jeremy Thompson, and Desmond Bishop. Chillar filled in for A.J. Hawk last year once Nick Barnett was injured, and the results were promising.

At the front of this new scheme is of course the line, featuring three very good pass rushers. B.J. Raji is the anchor, lining up at the nose tackle position and forcing the pocket back onto the QB. Aiding the OLB’s in their edge rushes are ends Johnny Jolly and Cullen Jenkins. Both are big enough to play defensive tackle, but should help collapse the pocket enough for Kampman or Matthews to come shooting through the gaps. Backing up this unit are Ryan Pickett, Justin Harrell, and Michael Montgomery. Neither Harrell or Montgomery are players you want starting, but they can rotate out the starters for a series or two if necessary.

The best part about this new front seven is that not only are they fast and agile players, they are all relatively young, which means the door to a Super Bowl is wide open, nowhere near closing. Pickett and Kampman are the oldest by far, each only 29 years old.

The defense looks primed for a deep playoff run, looking to top their numbers from two years ago and try to improve on their stellar secondary from a year ago.

The offense appears to be in similar shape.

Aaron Rodgers looks and acts like a man recently released from involuntary confinement, complete with an unkempt beard.

He had a stellar year, becoming only the second QB in league history to top 4,000 yards passing in his first year as a starter. He had a healthy 28:13 touchdown to interception ratio, and finished as the 6th ranked QB in the NFL. Not much more you can ask for, and he looks to improve on those numbers this year.

 Even with a QB rating the envy of his peers, Rodgers looked uncomfortable and sometimes lost in the offense last season. He appeared to more concerned with completing passes rather than making plays. He seemed to do exactly what Favre would not have, which is play if safe. Reducing turnovers is great, but if you do not exhibit that “it” factor and lead your team to the end zone, you will most likely come up short.

The times Rodgers was able to dissect defenses, his defense allowed the opposition to do the same. Rodgers learned a valuable lesson, and that is that fortune favors the bold. So he has set out to be a more aggressive passer on a more frequent basis, and the results have been staggering.

So far this preseason, Rodgers is 27 of 38 for 458 yards and 6 TD’s. He has yet to throw a pick and has never had to punt. He is completing 70% of his passes and has a QB rating of 151.1, leading his peers in nearly every category. If you were to calculate these stats over the course of a season you get 4,128 yards and 32 touchdowns. There is no way to calculate his interceptions, because he has yet to throw one.

4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns? The last time the Pack had a QB do that they won the 1996 Super Bowl! Things look great for the man under center this year, and he should top all expectations after the lackluster year GB had previously.

The passing game will thrive thanks in large part to the return of their NFC leading receiving corps. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson, and James Jones are all versatile receivers that get tons of yards after the catch.

Even if some secondary manages to lock all of these guys up, Jermichael Finley is going to scare a lot of defenses this year. He is the Pack’s version of Antonio Gates, a big man with good hands and fast feet. He can block for the run, and can also line up as a receiver. His height at 6’5” will dwarf most corners and safeties, giving him an edge any time Rodgers needs him to go up and get the ball. He is backed up by Donald Lee, who is a great pass catcher yet lacks speed and consistent blocking ability.

Ryan Grant is back at full speed, after spending most of last year making up for lost time after a pulled hamstring and contract dispute. He should return to his explosiveness of 2007, where in he averaged over 5 yards per carry (as opposed to 3 per last season). Spelling him will be Brandon Jackson and newcomer Tyrell Sutton, who has shown tremendous burst during exhibition matches.

Actually having a running game will force defenses to leave men in the box, granting Rodgers to expose man coverage the way Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees love to. But the passing game isn’t everything, for example Drew Brees and Peyton Manning have spent the last decade proving that without a stellar defense to compliment your passing game, all is lost when it comes to getting a ring.

Rodger and the pack should have everything they need to make a deep playoff run, and if all goes according to plan, Rodgers should be there in the Super Bowl to fight Brady and bring the Lombardi Trophy home to Title Town.

Case and point?

Tom Brady is married to Gisele, Darth Vader married Natalie Portman. They both have good taste in women and can light up (pun intended) opposing defenses.
Darth Vader cut off Luke’s hand and then Luke cut his off before the Emperor was chucked down a pipe. Last year Rodgers had a shoulder injury, just yesterday Brady suffered a blow to his throwing shoulder. Looks like it wont be long before Brady throws Billicheck in front of a bus.

Prediction:

The Pack go 12-4 and make the Super Bowl.
Packers versus Patriots = 35-24 final score, Packers the victors.

2009 Division Winners: New England Patriots

The AFC East has been Tom Brady’s stomping ground for much of the last decade. This year should be no different.

The bottom feeding Bills made some head-scratching choices this offseason, letting Pro bowl tackle Jason Peters leave, which does not bode well for a struggling offensive line, or a QB named Trent Edwards who will no doubt be begging for protection as the Bills will be forced to become more of the pass0happy team they were in the 90’s and begin to lean less on the running game.

The free agent signing of Terrell Owens no doubt helps prove my point, as the Bills are looking for a real possession receiver to take attention away from speedsters Lee Evans and Roscoe Parrish.

Robert Royal continues to impress as he matures, making the Bills a good pick for a sleeper, as long as you ignore their defense and lack of a consistent ground game.

One might argue that the Bills do have a consistent ground game with Marshawn Lynch, but how much of a compelling argument could you really make? Lynch finds himself suspended for the first month of the season, or four total games. Four potential losses if the passing offense does not establish itself early and often.

And then, even if the passing game does launch effectively, what if they cannot outscore their opponents? The Bills live in a division housing the pass happy Patriots, who managed to dismantle them last year without Tom Brady.

The Bills lack a consistently great pass rusher, can’t come up with a real playmaker from their linebacking corps, and they don’t exactly have a mouth-watering secondary. 

Combine these critical factors and you have a recipe for disaster in your own backyard.  

Even if T.O. can produce 10 T.D.s all by his lonesome, who will deliver alongside him? You cannot honestly tell me that Fred Davis is the guy you want getting 10-20 carries a game, and Lee Evans has never shown he can carry a team week in and week out.

So that leaves?

No one.

NO ONE.

Big target James Hardy proved he wasn’t ready as a rookie, and leaves little evidence he will be ready this season. Roscoe Parrish is small and injury prone, and the front office didn’t do a whole lot to even make a patchwork offensive line, meaning even if someone besides T.O. is ready to step up, Trent Edwards may not have the time to throw the ball.

Look for lots of sacks, turnovers, and maybe even a sub .500 season. No playoffs, and if T.O. struggles, he may not get an extension on his one year deal.

The Jets do have a lot of on-paper talent, but that has led to minimal success the past several years. This team has changed coaches three times in nine years, and I have no reason to believe a quick turnaround is in the cards.

Rex Ryan goes from Defensive guru in Baltimore to first time head coach in New Jersey. He has three rookie QB’s (a loss-heavy starting record and one concussion does not qualify Kellen Clemens as a “seasoned veteran” in my book) a very good stable of running backs, and an above average receiving corps.

This will only translate into offensive success if whomever Rex deems the capable heir to Chad and Brett can move the ball with the passing game.

The running game can only take you so far, as Tennessee was kind enough to demonstrate last season. You need a playmaking QB to win consistently in this league.

Miracles do happen, as the fates would allow for Baltimore and Trent Dilfer in 2000 and Tampa Bay and Brad Johnson in 2002. Neither team has made a serious run at the championship before or since, and that is in large part to inconsistent QB play (or poor head coaching on the part of Billeck and Gruden, you decide.  Maybe it is a combination).

The Jets’ defense is neither dominant nor dormant, but it will only take the team so far, as once again Tennessee was kind enough to demonstrate last season.

I cannot say without seeing him outside his previous system how effective Bart Scott will be. He never made my list of Raven’s MVP’s, and was the only one to leave so quickly. Bart may be more about the money than about the scheme. New coaches often make the mistake of bringing guys that made their old team’s system effective, even if it is not the playmaker(s) they wanted.

(You cannot honestly say that Rex would prefer Scott over Suggs or even old man Ray Lewis).

Keep in mind the Jets traded two defensive starters to the Browns for the right to draft Mark Sanchez, who walks into a shaky situation at best. Whoever starts, look for this to be a run first, smash mouth team, much like the Patriots and Steelers of the early 00’s. Laveranues Coles left at first chance, and no one can predict whether this team can succeed with no true number one wideout.

No matter what this team should finish with a .500 record or better, but if they could not get to the postseason with Favre, I don’t see them getting there this year either.

The Dolphins are a tough team to predict. In 2007 they brought in Cam Cameron to transfer his record setting run game from San Diego into Miami TD’s. After a 1-15 campaign, it is tough not to be strict with Cam.

It was clear last year in Baltimore that his system is only as effective as his playmakers, which can be said of any offensive coordinator. Miami had rookie Ted Ginn Jr., fresh off surgery for his first NFL season. He had trouble early and often, and rarely produced.

Trent Green suffered a season ending neck injury, even after several tough (albeit close) losses. Ronnie Brown suffered a season ending knee injury, and that pretty much sums up the offensive playmakers. After that, Cleo Lemon spent most of the season running for his life, trying to get the ball to receivers whose last name I cannot and do not want to try to spell.

The Dolphins narrowly avoided beating Detroit to the “worst team in NFL history” trophy presentation, and it took overtime to do so. Needless to say, Cam Cameron was not invited back for an encore. The only lighters out in the open were not to toast his one success, so much as to torch his contract.

Miami then brought in Bill Parcells and his subordinates.

He rebuilt via the draft and free agency, anchored the offensive line with Michigan LT Jake Long, and installed a run first offense that would protect both new QB Chad Pennington as well as surgically repaired Ronnie Brown.

To best his former protégé, Parcells installed a version of the wishbone offense to throw off would-be defenders. Ronnie Brown ran and passed wild, and the fish were able to stomp all over the Patriots.

So called “Noodle-armed” Chad proved he can be as accurate as ever, spreading the ball around and blocking effectively when the “wildcat” offense was called in. The season finished on a high note as Parcells and company dismantled his former protégé’s protégé, and Chad got revenge against his former team and current replacement, Brett Favre.

Brett finished the season leading the league in turnovers, while Chad finished first in completion percentage, first in turnover ratio, and in the top ten in overall rating. The season was a success, but ended on a low note when Chad threw four int’s in a postseason loss to Baltimore.

This year should be about the same.

The Fins have to contend with a healthy Patriots squad, and have made minimal changes to their own team. They still lack a true long term solution at QB, and the wildcat is no longer fooling teams. Parcells has proven he knows how to turn a franchise around, but has had trouble getting back to Super Bowl without top rate assistants (His last trip was 13 years ago and four teams ago).

Even with the continued maturation of Ted Ginn and even younger players such as Jhavid Bess and Greg Camarillo, the Fins are still looking for the replacement to the guy that should never have been allowed to leave: specialist Wes Welker. Camarillo may be the guy, but until we see him in 16 straight games we may never know.

Look for a record in the 10 win stages, but probably an early playoff exit if they make the cut at all.

The Patriots will be very hungry this year. Tom Brady is not getting younger, and neither is Randy Moss. Moss probably added years to his career life by taking plays off in Minnesota and Oakland, but that doesn’t work in a spread scheme.

If you are out on the field, run your hardest, take fast cuts, and just go, baby, go. Randy Moss has been a workhorse since he arrived in 2007, as has Wes Welker. There will be a new offensive coordinator this year, but as long as the playmakers are there, I do not foresee any slowing down.

Moss and Welker add another year of experience in a complicated scheme, and after Brady’s season-long vacation, may even be on the same page. Can you imagine if there were miscues in the 2007 campaign, just how dominant this trio might be this year with no further mistakes?

Granted, they no longer have a great third option since the Patriots were foolish enough to let Dante Stallworth go, but even if he had stayed there are no guarantees that he would not have run over some poor guy after drinking all night in a Miami hotel.

Stallworth plays for Cleveland, so there is no evidence he would not have been there regardless of what team he was representing. He is now suspended indefinitely, and might be playing for no team in 2009, which means he will just about match his production from 2008.

The Patriots made some nice upgrades on defense, bringing in Jerod Mayo last season and hard hitting safety Patrick Cheung this year. The loss of Rodney Harrison seems tough, but his age and lack of speed were holding the team back more than he was helping out. Even the worst safeties are effective in run support, but to be a truly great cover safety you need fresh legs, which rarely happens as you approach your 40’s.

The Patriots may not put up record setting points or go undefeated, but they will not face such a cupcake schedule as they did in 2007. The entire league has a blueprint for how to rush them, so look for Tom Brady to take more hits, hopefully not to his knee on a dead play like last season.

The annual Colts vs. Patriots showdown should be much better than last season, as it will actually be a showdown and not some tune-up game for Peyton Manning to get more practice in with whoever was filling in for the struggling Marvin Harrison that week.

Belichick will be more protective of Brady this year, and look to sit him if the game is out of reach on either end. That means fewer points, and probably less victories, especially if these guys secure a first round bye and have nothing to play for.

If Belichick can return to the days of winning without spite, this team should coast to the playoffs. Once there, unless they face an extra hungry Chargers or Colts team, look for the Patriots to get their fourth ring of the decade.

They should, at the very least, split the season series with each team, and in some cases sweep. This is the clear winner, and the return of Brady should regain the AFC its pride and competitiveness.

 

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