Chris J. Nelson’s 2009 Week 3 NFL Game Predictions

It seems like there are weeks where all the games on at the time are going my way, then I end up losing half of them. Oh well, on to this week.

Last week’s record: 10-6
Season record: 21-11

Redskins over Lions—I’m never picking the Lions. Not going to happen for a very long time. Jason Campbell should have a field day against this horrendous secondary.

Packers over Rams—Green Bay lost a tough one to Cincinnati last week, but I still like the team overall and I expect them to beat a St. Louis team that really only features one quality player on offense in Steven Jackson.

Vikings over 49ers—San Francisco has jumped out to an early division lead, but Adrian Peterson should lead the Vikings to victory and hand the 49ers their first loss of 2009.

Patriots over Falcons—New England has gotten off to a slow start in 2009, and the mounting injuries aren’t helping. Still, I think Tom Brady overcomes the adversity and beats a tough Falcons team this week.

Titans over Jets—Not the logical pick, but in my experience, teams that aren’t bottom-feeders or among the elite never win or lose too many in a row. I think the Titans get their first win of 2009, while handing the Jets their first loss.

Eagles over Chiefs—I’m not big fan of Kevin Kolb and he definitely hurts the Eagles’ chances of winning compared to Donovan McNabb, but I still like Philadelphia as a team much better than Kansas City.

Giants over Buccaneers—The Giants’ offense isn’t missing a beat with a very young receiving corps, and I think they’ll continue to roll this week against the Bucs.

Ravens over Browns—There just isn’t much to like about Cleveland right now, and Baltimore should handle them easily.

Texans over Jaguars—If Houston’s offense plays like it did last week, they can beat anyone. Jacksonville has struggled to get going this season, and I expect those struggles to continue at least one more week.

Saints over Bills—The Bills just don’t impress me at all, and I don’t think you can pick against New Orleans’ explosive passing offense right now.

Bears over Seahawks—It’s hard to pick a Seneca Wallace-led Seahawks team to a victory, and I’m not going to this week. The Bears should be able to put this one away fairly easily.

Steelers over Bengals—Cincinnati is certainly better than they were last year, but I still like Pittsburgh better and predict they’ll rebound from that close loss against Chicago last week.

Broncos over Raiders—JaMarcus Russell just isn’t progressing, and I can’t justify picking a team led by him until I see quite a bit more.

Dolphins over Chargers—An upset pick, San Diego is just so banged up right now, and I think the Dolphins take advantage by continuing their strong running game led by Ronnie Brown. Maybe this time they’ll actually be able to finish.

Colts over Cardinals—When you have two high-powered offense that have been underachieving, you always go with the one led by Peyton Manning.

Cowboys over Panthers—It’s hard to envision the Panthers starting off 0-3, but there’s just something about the Cowboys (Tony Romo’s smile?) that I like. I think they’ll get the first win in their new stadium this week.

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University.  He operates his own Miami Dolphins web site, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on Twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Chris J. Nelson’s 2009 Week 2 NFL Game Predictions

I didn’t end up having time posting my Week 1 picks because I went to the Dolphins-Falcons game, but you’ll just have to trust that I went 11-5 with my picks. It’s not that impressive and I should have done better, but oh well.

Last week’s record: 11-5
Season record: 11-5

Falcons over Panthers — These divisional games are always close, but I have to go with Atlanta as the home team and the team with the better quarterback situation at the moment.

Vikings over Lions — It’s going to take a couple wins by Detroit before I’ll ever pick them, and even then it would have to be a really favorable situation for them, which is hard to imagine. Adrian Peterson and the Vikings should roll over the Lions as the losing streak continues.

Packers over Bengals — I think Cincinnati will improve on their dismal 2008 performance with the return of Carson Palmer, but Green Bay is just too good team all-around and they have to be the pick this week.

Titans over Texans — I’m not too high on Tennessee this season, but they should be able to beat Houston in this one. The Texans do seem to play their division opponents well though, so an upset wouldn’t surprise me.

Chiefs over Raiders — Kansas City played much better than expected in Week 1 despite not having their starting quarterback in Matt Cassel. Meanwhile, JaMarcus Russell was pretty bad against San Diego on Monday night, so I’m going to ride the hot hand in KC.

Patriots over Jets — Sorry Kerry Rhodes, but I think you’re going to be the only one embarrassed tomorrow. New England got off to a bit of a slow start against the Bills, but I expect them to get hot soon, I don’t think rookie Mark Sanchez will be able to keep up with Tom Brady.

Saints over Eagles — This one would be very tough to pick if Donovan McNabb were playing. But, as it stands, Kevin Kolb will get the start, and I just don’t see him being able to keep up with the league’s hottest offense in a shootout. Even against a great Eagles secondary, Drew Brees is simply going to put up way too many points for Kolb to match.

Redskins over Rams — The Redskins are a solid all-around team and played the Giants very well in Week 1. They get a bit of a break with an out-of-division game against St. Louis and should capitalize.

Cardinals over Jaguars — The defending NFC champions were caught a little off-guard in Week 1, as they were upset by the San Francisco 49ers. I think they rebound here in a high-scoring performance against Jacksonville.

Bills over Buccaneers — This one is a bit of a tough one to call, as both had their good moments in some tough losses in Week 1. The Bills lost a heart-breaker late against New England, but I predict they don’t let those emotions carry over and instead get their first win.

49ers over Seahawks — San Francisco surprised Arizona in Week 1, and I predict they win their second straight divisional game here. Seattle just doesn’t impress me outside of a handful of players, and I don’t see them doing much this year.

Steelers over Bears — I don’t think Jay Cutler will have many games as bad as the one last week against Green Bay, but I also don’t see him rebounding enough to put together a win against a tough Steelers defense. Chicago’s secondary is also suspect with some changes at safety, while their defense overall just got much weaker with the loss of Brian Urlacher.

Broncos over Browns — Denver played better than expected in Week 1, even if they did win primarily due to a lucky pass deflection that receiver Brandon Stokley took all the way for a score. The Browns, however, just don’t impress me at all.

Ravens over Chargers — San Diego wasn’t all that impressive against a poor Raiders team in Week 1. I like Philip Rivers a lot, but the absences of LaDainian Tomlinson and nose tackle Jamal Williams (the latter placed on season-ending IR) will hurt against a sound Baltimore team.

Cowboys over Giants — NFC East matchups are just complete toss-ups, aren’t they? I’m a big fan of this Dallas team and I’ll take them in a close shootout, but who really knows…

Colts over Dolphins — I hope I get this one wrong and I would love if Miami rebounded from their dismal performance against Atlanta, but that’s just not the sensible pick. Indianapolis is the better team right now, and I’m very worried about what Dallas Clark and Dwight Freeney could do against Miami’s weak spots.

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University.  He operates his own Miami Dolphins web site, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on Twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

2009 Miami Dolphins Preview

I’m waking up in less than seven hours to go downtown and tailgate for the Miami Dolphins’ season opener in Atlanta, so I don’t quite have much time to do an in-depth preview of this year’s team. Of course, this will probably still have much more depth than any of you would prefer!

Here’s my assessment, position by position, of the 2009 Miami Dolphins:

Quarterback

Chad Pennington is no Manning or Brady, and we know that. His lack of arm strength does show at times, and if you were down big late in a game, he wouldn’t be your first choice to lead a comeback.

That being said, Pennington is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL and does as good a job as anyone protecting the football. He might not get you out of a big hole late into a game, but he’s unlikely to cause one of those huge deficits in the first place.

Quarterbacks far less talented than Pennington have gone on to playoff success, and there’s no reason he can’t do the same if the team around him does its part. He’s not the long-term answer and he’s not an elite passer, but he’s someone fans should be confident in each and every game, because he’s always going to protect the ball and give the team a chance.

Backup Chad Henne had his ups and downs in the preseason, but I like what I’ve seen of his development overall. He’s the future of the franchise (possibly as soon as 2010 with Pennington’s expiring contract) and I’m confident in his ability to be the No. 2 guy in 2009 if he were forced into action.

Rookie third-stringer Pat White presents some intriguing new options on offense, but he doesn’t look ready to run an NFL offense full-time. I don’t expect much him in 2009, and we all better pray both Chads don’t go down.

Grade: B-

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Running Back

The Dolphins’ deepest position on offense, Miami has nothing to worry about here as long as the offensive line does their part. I believe Ronnie Brown is poised for a breakout season after the Dolphins eased him back into things in 2008 while he recovered from a torn ACL the year before. Ronnie has a terrific blend of size, speed and strength and can be dominant if he gets help up front.

A lot of people think Ricky Williams has lost a step, but the guy’s much faster than people think and he still has some thump in him as well. He’s a quality backup that rivals any other team’s No. 2 back and is easily capable of carrying the load if he has to.

Patrick Cobbs isn’t feature-back material, but he’s the kind of football player teams love to have because of his work ethic and versatility. He’s a good special teams player, a good receiver out of the backfield and runs hard.

Fullback Lousaka Polite isn’t a big name and was kind of a journeyman before landing in Miami last season. However, he did a good job blocking for the tailbacks in 2008 and also proved quite useful as a ball-carrier in short-yardage situations.

Grade: A

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Wide Receiver

I’m a bigger fan of Ted Ginn’s than most, and I’m happy with his progression to date. Wide receivers always take a few years to develop, and after a solid sophomore campaign in 2008, I think Ginn could be in for his first 1,000-yard season in 2009. He has all the speed and athleticism you could ask for, and his hands and route-running is getting better all the time.

Beyond Ginn, there are a few “solid” guys but nobody really special or with a very high ceiling. Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess are both good possession men, but will never be more than slot receivers and probably wouldn’t have roles nearly this big on a team with a better receiving corps.

Rooke Brian Hartline looks promising, but I don’t expect much from him as a rookie and he probably won’t be more than the fourth receiver. Meanwhile, fellow first-year Patrick Turner has been unimpressive so far, and I’m already concerned he might be what Ernest Wilford was in Miami, rather than what Wilford was supposed to be.

Grade: C

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Tight End

After a few seasons backing up Jason Witten in Dallas, Anthony Fasano got his chance to be the leading man in Miami and didn’t disappoint. Fasano isn’t an elite tight end on the level of an Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, but he’s certainly the notch below them. He does everything well and is just a reliable and solid all-around tight end.

The Dolphin are lacking a veteran presence beyond Fasano after David Martin was placed on injured reserve, but I’m not too worried. Joey Haynos stepping into Martin’s role in 2009 is one of the things I’m most excited about seeing this season, and I think he has the talent to thrive.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

The line had their struggles in the preseason, and when it didn’t get better as time went on, it started to become a bit of a concern for me. Jake Long and Jake Grove in particular seemed to have their problems, but both are very talented players that should get things straightened out.

A big key for the Dolphins on the offensive line is right guard Donald Thomas. He was a monster at times during the 2009 preseason, and the team really struggled to fill the right guard spot all of 2008 when Thomas was lost in the season opener. If he can perform nearly as well as most seem to think he can, he’ll be a huge asset up front.

The Dolphins’ line isn’t quite “there yet,” but it is solid and I do expect they’ll get better as they play together more and the season progresses. I think there’s enough young talent in the unit to eventually be one of the best lines in all of football.

Grade: B

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Defensive Line

I’ve consistently said that defensive end is possibly the Dolphins’ deepest position, and I certainly still believe it. Kendall Langford was extremely impressive as a rookie, while Randy Starks and Phillip Merling both came along quite nicely as well. Tony McDaniel and Lionel Dotson both look like solid backup material and could be worthy of spots in the line rotation before season’s end.

Nose tackle is a bit of a long-term concern because of Jason Ferguson’s age, but that’s not an issue in 2009 because the guy can still clog up the middle as well as most. He’s a good anchor when he’s in there, and Paul Soliai is a quality backup nose tackle to have despite his disappointments thus far.

Grade: A-

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Linebacker

Outsiders seem to think Jason Taylor is washed up and over-the-hill because of an injury-plagued 2008 in Washington, but everything we’ve seen since his return to Miami has been positive. The guy’s leadership cannot be overstated, but that’s secondary to his play on the field, which is still excellent. Not only is Taylor still a quality pass-rusher, but he’s also better against the run that people give him credit for.

Joey Porter should continue to thrive as a pass-rusher in Miami, especially now playing opposite Taylor. One thing he must get better at is his run defense, which was nothing short of horrendous in 2008. Matt Roth, whose strange preseason absence has been well-documented, was Miami’s best run-stopping outside linebacker, so it’s time for Porter to step up.

The Dolphins are pretty solid up the middle with Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele, though both miss a few too many tackles for my liking and I’d prefer to see them clamp down on that sort of thing. The defensive line is doing its job in occupying the blockers—now it’s time for Crowder and Ayodele to do their part.

Depth across the linebacker positions is solid, and at times, quite intriguing. Charlie Anderson has already established himself as a good situational rusher, while CFL import Cameron Wake could be a real sleeper prospect for the Dolphins. Reggie Torbor, while overpaid, is a solid third inside linebacker, while Erik Walden and Quentin Moses are both decent, young backups outside.

Grade: B

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Cornerback

Will Allen is a better corner than most around the league give him credit for and is a viable No. 1 option. He should continue to play at a high level for the Dolphins and is an excellent veteran under which the Dolphins’ rookies can learn.

Speaking of those rookies, Sean Smith and Vontae Davis have big shoes to fill in trying to replace departed free agent Andre’ Goodman. Smith has been outstanding in camp and Davis is a great prospect as well, but they’re playing probably the most difficult position in the entire game to play as a rookie and are going to make their share of mistakes.

Beyond that, Nathan Jones is a solid dime back, but not much more, while first-round bust Jason Allen is really nothing more than a special-teamer and probably never will be. The Dolphins inexperience and lack of depth could be problematic, especially if injuries were to occur.

Grade: C+

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Safety

There are things to like about each of Miami’s starting safeties. The problem is, it’s the same thing. Both Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell are terrific tacklers that play the run very well. They’re both your ideal, “eight man, in-the-box” safety.

The problem is, both can be shaky in pass coverage, and its somewhat curious the team gave Gibril Wilson such a big contract and moved him to free safety given his style of play. I worry this unit could be exploited because of the players’ common weaknesses. A strong pass-rush will help, but these guys are going to get beat at times and give up their share of big plays.

There is decent depth here, as Tyrone Culver proved to be a quality backup in 2008 and rookie Chris Clemons has some upside as well. Clemons won’t be asked to do much more than special teams as a rookie.

Grade: C

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Special Teams

The Dolphins don’t have an elite kicker or an elite punter. Both Dan Carpenter and Brandon Fields are just solid. Hopefully, Carpenter continues to progress after a strong rookie season, though some struggles in camp have be a little worried. I’d also like to see a little more from Fields, who had a leg capable of booming them, but is a little inconsistent.

As for John Denney…well, he’s a long snapper. How do you rate long snappers. He’s been fine for Miami, outside of a few bad snaps against the New York Jets in the regular season finale in 2008. But I’m sure he’ll be fine. He’s not going to make or break the season.

Grade: B-

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Conclusion and prediction

This sort of thing is a thin wire on which to balance for me. If I predict the Dolphins to do too well, I’m biased and a homer. If I predict them to do to poorly, I’m a traitor and an idiot in the eyes of Dolphins fans everywhere.

Of course, I can only give my honest opinion, and that is I think the Dolphins will probably hover around .500 this season and likely miss out on a wild card spot.

I know, I know. The Dolphins won the AFC East last season and are now in their second year of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano era, so they should be even better. Unfortunately, things are a little more complicated than that.

Yes, the Dolphins improved from 2007 to 2008, in part, because of the arrival of Bill Parcells. But such a drastic improvement was not just the result of one man’s presence. It was a lot of a luck, and that includes the season-ending injury to Tom Brady, great fortunate when it came to the Dolphins’ own health, and a seriously easy schedule down the stretch.

Let’s face it: The Dolphins beat a lot of bad team in 2008, and a lot of the time they barely beat them. Then, when they got the playoffs, they were completely handled by the Baltimore Ravens and a rookie quarterback.

The way I see it, with such a difficult schedule in 2009, the Dolphins could be much better than they were in 2008, and come away with a worse record. I think .500 is about right for a team that’s on the rise, but is still missing some pieces and probably can’t count on being as lucky again as they were last season.

Final prediction: 8-8 (Sorry guys. I hope I’m wrong!)

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins website, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Chris J. Nelson’s 2009 NFL Standings and Awards Predictions

The NFL season officially begins tonight, so I thought now would be an opportune time (and my last chance) to post my predictions for this year’s NFL standings and awards.

If you want to see how dumb I am, check out my predictions for last year here. Hey, at least I got the rookies of the year right!

(Playoff seeds in parentheses…just like this sentence.)

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (2)
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New York Jets
4. Buffalo Bills

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (1)
2. Baltimore Ravens (6)
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Cleveland Browns

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (3)
2. Tennessee Titans (5)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Houston Texans

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (4)
2. Denver Broncos
3. Oakland Raiders
4. Kansas City Chiefs

 

Comments

AFC East

As much as I’d like to see my beloved Dolphins repeat, I just think the return of Tom Brady pushes the Patriots back into the elite class of the East and of the AFC as a whole. I like the Jets over the Bills, even with a rookie quarterback, because Buffalo’s offensive line scares me and I like the Jets’ team better overall.

 

AFC North

Pittsburgh is just such a well-built team throughout; it’s hard to pick against them to win the division again. I think Cincinnati rebounds a bit but not enough to overtake Pittsburgh or Baltimore. I predict a mess of a season for Eric Mangini in Cleveland.

 

AFC South

New head coach or no, the Colts still have the best quarterback in all of football, and maybe of all time. Peyton Manning will lead them to yet another title, as I think Tennessee falls off a little bit with the aging Kerry Collins behind center and a weaker defense.

 

AFC West

The Chargers don’t have much competition in the West, so I have to go with them again. Denver should never have traded away their franchise quarterback, and it will come back to haunt them. I like Oakland (slightly) over Kansas City because of the Raiders’ potential playmakers on offense and the Chiefs’ complete lack of an offensive line.

 

NFC East
1. Philadelphia Eagles (3)
2. New York Giants
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (1)
2. Minnesota Vikings (6)
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (4)
2. Carolina Panthers (5)
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC West
1. Arizona Cardinals (2)
2. St. Louis Rams
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. San Francisco 49ers

 

Comments

NFC East

The East is always impossible to predict, but I think Philly has the most well-rounded team. I could envision any of the four teams winning the division under certain scenarios, so it’s really just a toss-up.

 

NFC North

I don’t think Brett Favre completely bombs the season in Minnesota, but I don’t think he’ll be enough to overtake the Packers, who have the best-built team in the division. I could envision Jay Cutler boosting Chicago into a playoff spot, but it’s hard to know just how big of an impact he’ll have right away. Detroit is, well…it’s still Detroit.

 

NFC South

Another very difficult division to call is the South. I think the Falcons struggle a bit with a tougher schedule in ’09 and a very porous secondary. In my mind, it’s a battle between the passing attack led by Drew Brees in New Orleans and the scary ground assault in Carolina.

 

NFC West

There isn’t much to like about the West outside of Arizona, and they should be able to win the division again. If Marc Bulger stays healthy, he and Steven Jackson could earn the Rams a second-place finish, though the same goes for Matt Hasselbeck in Seattle. I just don’t like San Francisco’s quarterback situation enough to have them getting out of the cellar.

 

Wild Card Round
Colts (3) over Ravens (6)
Chargers (4) over Titans (5)
Vikings (6) over Eagles (3)
Saints (4) over Panthers (5)

Divisional Round
Steelers (1) over Chargers (4)
Patriots (2) over Colts (3)
Packers (1) over Vikings (6)
Saints (4) over Cardinals (2)

Conference Championships
Steelers (1) over Patriots (2)
Packers (1) over Saints (4)

Super Bowl
Steelers over Packers

Super Bowl MVP

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers—This kind of thing is impossible to predict, since we don’t have any idea who will be in the Super Bowl, let alone how the game will go. Still, Big Ben is the best guess if the Steelers do win. After all, he’s the quarterback, and he’s already won one Super Bowl MVP award with a bad performance.

NFL MVP

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings—Like most, I expect a monster year for Peterson. I don’t think he’ll be able to lift them to a deep playoff run, but he should put up staggering numbers.

Offensive Player of the Year

Drew Brees, QB, Saints—Brees has become one of the league’s best passers in recent years, and I expect that to continue in ’09. No matter how New Orleans finishes, Brees will be one of the league’s top passers barring injury.

Defensive Player of the Year

Ed Reed, S, Baltimore Ravens—Reed is simply a playmaker in every sense of the word. He’s the best defensive player I’ve ever seen with my own eyes, and I expect nothing less than another dominant season.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets—Quarterbacks don’t usually excel as rookies, and I don’t really expect Sanchez to do so. Still, I think he’s in a good situation with a decent line and a strong running game, which is why I think he’ll put up decent enough numbers to grab this award.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Brian Orakpo, LB, Redskins—My gut says to go with the safe pick in Aaron Curry, but everything I’ve hear about Orakpo has been extremely positive and I think he has the chance to be really special. I expect a big impact from him as a rookie.

Coach of the Year

Sean Payton, Saints—I don’t think they’ll go deep in the playoffs (and in that division, I could be totally off and they could not make it at all), but I think the Saints finally put together a good enough season to get Payton a little recognition.

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University.  He operates his own Miami Dolphins web site, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on Twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Miami Dolphins: Sizing Up Their AFC East Rivals

 

The Miami Dolphins surprised everyone by going 11-5 and winning the AFC East in 2008, just one year removed from a franchise-worst 1-15 campaign.

It’s safe to say the Dolphins snuck up on people a bit, and any level-headed thinker knows that a significantly weak schedule down the stretch, coupled with the season-long absence of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, certainly helped Miami on its path.

The Dolphins won’t have those advantage this year (after all, Bernard Pollard is a free agent), and the path to success will be significantly tougher than it was in 2008.

I’ll be taking a thorough look at the 2009 Dolphins team and its prospects for the upcoming season in the days ahead, but for now I thought it would be a good time to examine the Dolphins’ three division opponents.

I’m going to look at each team’s strengths and weaknesses, seeing where Miami might have trouble with them and where they should have success.

 

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Miami recorded eight sacks in their preseason finale last week, and that is exactly where the Dolphins will need to get at the Bills in order to be successful. The Bills’ offensive line is extremely inexperienced with an average age of 24.8 years among starters.

Replacing Jason Peters in protecting Trent Edwards’ will be Demetrius Bell—a 2008 seventh-rounder who’s more famous for being Karl Malone’s illegitimate child than he is his football prowess. Bell is one of three starting Bills offensive linemen—joining rookie guards Andy Levitre and Eric Wood—that has never started an NFL regular season game.

Miami had great success pressuring the Bills’ quarterbacks last year, which was a key part of their success against them. With a revived Jason Taylor in the mix and a shaky, inexperienced Buffalo offensive line, the Dolphins should continue to be successful in that department.

As scary as the tandem of Terrell Owens and Lee Evans is, their effectiveness will be offset by the above offensive line problems. What scares me about Buffalo is their special teams. It is an area where Miami has struggled in recent years, and where the Bills absolutely excel.

Brian Moorman has consistently been one of the best punters in the NFL. Couple that with a complete lack of explosion in Miami’s return game (Davone Bess is penciled in as the punt returner once again) and you have a significant advantage in Buffalo’s favor when it comes to the field position game.

The Dolphins’ special teams coverage units are also suspect, and this is where Buffalo can really hurt people. Leodis McKelvin on kickoffs and Roscoe Parrish on punts are both home-run threats and will go a long way in helping Buffalo’s offense secure consistently good field position. Unlike someone like Bess, both of those players also have the ability to take one back for a touchdown at any moment, which can drastically change a game in a matter of seconds.

Is Miami a better team than Buffalo? I don’t think there is any doubt that the answer is “yes.” Still, Buffalo does have their strengths, and when some of those strengths happen to coincide with Miami’s weaknesses, the outcome of a game is never a sure thing.

 

 

New England Patriots

 

Dolphins fans everywhere—and even head coach Tony Sparano a little bit—celebrated when the Patriots shipped perennial all-pro defensive end Richard Seymour out of the division to the Oakland Raiders over the weekend. While there is no doubt the Patriots’ 2009 defense would be better off with Seymour than without him, I wasn’t so quick to express my elation at the move.

Like him or not, Bill Belichick is the best at what he does. I think there is a strong argument for him being the best head coach in NFL history, and in my 22 years of living (a good bit of it spent following the league) I have never seen such a masterfully-run organization in any of the major sports.

So while trading Seymour might hurt them in the short term, I’ve simply observed Belichick for too long to make a movie that will sabotage his team. He knows what he’s going and he is just too good at what he does.

The Dolphins may being reigning AFC East champs, but I think fans are fooling themselves if they consider Miami the favorite to win the division crown again this year. After just missing out on the playoffs with their backup quarterback, the Patriots are back on top and ready to dominate for a reason that can be summed up in five words: Tom Brady and Randy Moss.

We all saw what that duo did in 2007, with Moss scoring a ridiculous 23 touchdowns and Brady posting one of the single greatest seasons by a quarterback in NFL history. Brady is back healthy now and should have no problems with picking up right where he left off.

(By the way, keep in mind that the guy who just acquired Seymour from the Patriots also gave them Moss in exchange for a fourth-round pick. The jury’s still out on Raiders cornerback John Bowie—the player Oakland selected with that pick who has one tackle in two career games played—but I’m thinking the Patriots got the better end of the deal. Keep this trade in mind every time Al Davis does a deal with Belichick.)

The Patriot’ offense simply should have no problems returning to their previous level of production, and Miami might not be in position to match them. Chad Pennington, while a smart quarterback who limits mistakes and doesn’t ever give the game away, just isn’t the kind of guy who can keep up with Tom Brady in a shootout.

Furthermore, the Dolphins’ secondary is somewhat suspect to say the least. As good as Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are as prospects, they’re still rookies and are going to have their ups and downs in 2009.

Beyond that, the Dolphins have two starting safeties—Yeremiah Bell and Gibril Wilson—that both fit that “hard-hitting, run-stopping, in-the-box” mold and have their struggles in coverage. Teams like New England are going to test Miami deep, and they are going to succeed at times.

The Dolphins have shown they can beat good New England teams in the past. Even when Miami isn’t having its best season, they always seem to elevate their level of play to match the Patriots’ and give them a competitive game. Still, there’s no denying that the Patriots are a force to be reckoned with, and Miami might not be entirely equipped to handle them.

 

 

New York Jets

 

The most glaring change with the Jets this season is at quarterback, where sixth overall pick Mark Sanchez has already been named the starter. Playing a rookie quarterback is always an adventure, and while you have your occasional Dan Marino or Matt Ryan, typically players in such a position don’t fare well out of the gate.

Sanchez’s youth and inexperience is key for the Dolphins, who will have to use their strong pass rush to disrupt and rattle the young quarterback. While he does have a better offensive line than the Bills’ mess described above, Sanchez is going to make rookie mistakes and might even give a game or two away because of them.

Stopping Sanchez won’t necessarily stop the Jets, however. The Jets will focus heavily on the run and have a stable of backs at their disposable. Thomas Jones isn’t flashy, but he’s workhorse who always gains solid yardage. Shonn Green is an up-and-coming talent capable of contributing as well, and we’ve already seen the kind of explosive player Leon Washington is.

In addition to Washington’s contributions on offense, he’s also one of the league’s best kickoff returners. As already discussed, special teams coverage is a weak spot for Miami, and if Washington can break off some long returns and consistently give the Jets good field position, it will go a long way in taking the pressure of Sanchez and helping score points.

The Jets also already had a strong defense before the arrival of head coach Rex Ryan, who is undoubtedly one of the best minds in the business when it comes to that side of the ball. They have an anchor of a nose tackle in Kris Jenkins, a young stud linebacker in David Harris, a play-maker on the outside in Bart Scott, and an improved secondary with the addition of Lito Sheppard and the progression of budding star Darrelle Revis.

I don’t expect the Jets to win a whole lot of games in 2009 under a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback. Still, there is talent littered throughout the roster and wins against them won’t come easily.

 

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins website, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Miami Dolphins’ Initial Practice Squad Features Some New Faces

The Miami Dolphins have constructed their first practice squad of the 2009 season, and as expected it primarily consists of players let go by the team during final cuts.

Re-joining the practice squad after clearing waivers are: defensive end Ryan Baker, cornerback Will Billingsley, linebacker J. D. Folsom, offensive tackle Nate Garner, guard Mark Lewis and wide receiver James Robinson. All but Billingsley and Garner are true rookies, and Folsom is the Dolphins’ lone 2009 draft pick that did not make the Dolphins’ initial 53-man roster.

Joining those six will be two newcomers: rookie wide receiver Julius Pruitt and second-year linebacker Danny Lansanah. Pruitt is undrafted out of Ouachita Baptist, while Lansanah was undrafted out of UConn in 2008 and spent his rookie season with the Green Bay Packers.

Before a little analysis on each one, a quick refresher on the workings of the practice squad:

• Teams may form eight-man practice squads after final cuts are completed. Practice squads last through the regular season and post-season.
• All practice squad players have one-year contracts, usually worth around $80,000 for the season, and become free agents once the season is over.
• Practice squad players practice with the team and do everything active roster players do, except play on game days. They usually do not travel with the team on the road, unless the team foresees a need to activate one for the next game.
• Practice squad players can be signed by other NFL teams, so long as the signing team adds the player to their active roster and keeps him there at least three weeks.

Now, on to the players:

Ryan Baker

Baker was undrafted out of Purdue in 2009 and waived by the Dolphins during final cuts. He’ll serve as the team’s sixth defensive end behind the five on the active roster. An injury could get him promoted, but depending on the severity as well as Baker’s progression, a free agent veteran could be first.

Will Billingsley

Billingsley was undrafted and unsigned in 2007 before joining the Dolphins in 2008. He spent most of last season on the team’s practice squad. He’s on the practice squad because he knows the system and can serve as a sixth corner in practice, though I don’t expect much from him as far as development goes.

J. D. Folsom

The Dolphins’ seventh-round pick in 2009, Folsom could have made the team had the Dolphins opted to keep four inside linebackers and five outside linebackers instead of three inside and six outside. He’s a candidate to be brought up sometime during the season for special teams purposes, though Danny Lansanah will provide competition there.

Nate Garner

Garner had essentially made the team before the Dolphins feared they couldn’t sneak tight end John Nalbone to the practice squad, which resulted in Garner’s release and four tight ends kept on the active roster. With only eight offensive linemen on the active roster, Garner’s a strong candidate to be brought back up before long.

Danny Lansanah

Lansanah (6-1, 248) earned first-team All-Big East honors as a senior at UConn in 2007, but went undrafted in the 2008 NFL Draft. He signed with the Green Bay Packers and began the season on their practice squad before being promoted to the active roster five weeks into the season. He appeared in five games for the Packers as a rookie, recording two tackles on special teams.

Lansanah appeared in all four games for the Packers in the 2009 preseason and finished second on the team with 18 tackles. Despite his performance, Lansanah was caught up in a numbers game in Green Bay and was waived during final cuts.

Despite an offer to return to the Packers’ practice squad, Lansanah opted to join Miami’s instead. According to former Dolphins and current Packers beat writer Greg A. Bedard, Miami came after Lansanah last season and prompted the Packers to promote Lansanah to the active roster.

Lansanah will wear No. 58 in Miami, which was worn by linebacker William Kershaw from last season to this year’s final cuts. Lansanah currently is the fifth inside linebacker for the Dolphins and second on the practice squad, though with his experience he could beat Folsom for a promotion as a special teamer this season.

Mark Lewis

Lewis was undrafted out of Oregon in 2009 and signed with the Dolphins as a free agent. He drew occasional praise from the beat writers in camp but never really stood out in the team’s preseason games.

The Dolphins have only eight offensive linemen on the active roster, but I suspect Lewis isn’t ready to contribute and I imagine the team would look elsewhere for an injury replacement.

Julius Pruitt

Undrafted out of Ouachita Baptist (the Ouachita Baptist?!) in 2009, Pruitt failed to sign with a team during the offseason and preseason and was never under contract with a pro team before joining the Dolphins’ practice squad yesterday. He reportedly drew the interest of some teams prior to the draft and worked out for the Dolphins before they signed James Robinson in August.

Pruitt spent his first two years at Ouachita Baptist as a backup receiver, totaling 43 receptions, 567 yards and five touchdowns through his freshman and sophomore seasons.

Pruitt stepped into the starting role in 2007, earning second-team All-Gulf South honors with 51 catches for 723 yards and seven scores. He capped off his collegiate career with first-team all-conference honors in 2008 after catching 77 passes for 1,116 yards and 11 touchdowns.

A two-time All-Gulf South selection, Pruitt left Ouachita Baptist having caught 171 passes for 2,406 yards and 23 touchdowns.

Pruitt has a good blend of size (6-2, 210) and speed (4.4 forty time), but he comes from a very small school where the level of competition is nothing like what he’ll experience at the pro level. He’s very raw and is a project for the Dolphins, so don’t expect contributions any time soon.

Pruitt will wear No. 11 for the Dolphins, which had been worn over the past year by wide receiver Anthony Armstrong, who was released Aug. 29.

James Robinson

A well-traveled receiver who has played in af2, the Arena Football League and the Canadian Football League, Robinson was let go by the CFL’s Toronto Argonauts in August, but was able to earn a contract with the Dolphins after a sub-4.3 forty time in workouts.

Robinson caught one pass for eight yards in the preseason, but never really had a chance to make the team and was waived during final cuts. He joins Julius Pruitt as one of two receivers on the practice squad, making them the sixth and seventh receivers in the organization after the five active players.

Like Pruitt, Robinson is raw as well, but he has much more pro experience at various levels and thus has to be considered far more likely to be promoted to the active roster. Still, it’s unknown at this point how ready Robinson is to contribute, so he may not be first in line should the team need to add a receiver due to injury.

 

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Chris J. Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins website, The Miami Dolphins Spotlight, and can be followed on twitter here.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Unlucky 13: Who Won’t Be Making the Cut in Miami

The cut-down deadlines are looming in the not-so-distant future, and with 66 players currently on the roster Miami will have to make some tough decisions. 13 players will soon be shown the door to get down to the mandatory 53-man roster limit on Sept. 5.

But who will those players be? It’s not hard to figure out the players definitely will make the team, but which of those players on the roster bubble will avoid the axe, and which will be getting unfortunate visits from the Turk?

The following 13 players are the ones I feel will not be on the Dolphins’ active roster when the team opens up the regular season in Atlanta on Sept. 13:

Lex Hilliard

Yes, everyone’s favorite preseason star will not make the team in my view. He’s had some good moments this past month, but he’s been vastly overrated by the media and fans. People forget that all of his production has come late in preseason games when he’s facing other third- and fourth-stringers.

Yes, Hilliard’s a good special teams guy too, but we have other bubble players that are as well, and we have some (like Brandon London and Erik Walden) that are more able to contribute in other ways. Miami doesn’t often keep four tailbacks on the roster, and with three far superior ones on the team, there just isn’t enough reason to keep Hilliard around.

James Robinson

Robinson has crazy speed, but he’s very raw and doesn’t have a shot to make the Dolphins’ active roster out of the gate. He’s worth consideration for a practice squad spot, but nothing more.

John Nalbone

You don’t always see fifth-round picks cut, but they certainly aren’t locks either. Nalbone is a project after coming out of Division II Monmouth College and hasn’t done anything to separate himself from incumbent third-stringer Joey Haynos in the preseason. Haynos is a better red-zone threat at this point and a superior blocker as well, so I think Nalbone’s destined for the practice squad.

Mark Lewis

There were a couple times the beat writers singled out Lewis in training camp for fantastic blocks, but we’ve seen little of him in preseason games. The undrafted guard out of Oregon is the longest shot of any of Miami’s offensive linemen and doesn’t have a real chance to beat anyone out for a roster spot. He could be signed to the practice squad, or he could get a day job.

Nate Garner

Garner failed to get into a game last year after being claimed off waivers from the New York Jets prior to last season. He currently sits behind Vernon Carey at right tackle, though I expect the team to only keep three tackles and nine linemen total, with Garner being the odd man out. Seventh-rounder Andrew Gardner should wind up with the backup job to Jake Long, while guard Brandon Frye has tackle experience and can be able to double-up there as well.

Ryan Baker

Defensive end is perhaps the Dolphins’ deepest position on that side of the ball, making it a monumental task for Baker to work his way onto the roster. Tony McDaniel and Lionel Dotson are both better prospects and should be able to secure the fourth and fifth end spots.

Baker is a candidate for the practice squad, but with five likely on the active roster, it’s possible the team won’t feel the need to have the position represented on the developmental squad.

Rodrique Wright

A prototypical 3-4 end, Wright seemed like a steal when Miami grabbed him in the seventh round out of Texas in 2006. Since then, he’s failed to appear in a game during two of his three pro seasons and didn’t show much as a part-time starter in 2007. The Dolphins are stacked at defensive end, and there’s finally no room for Wright on the team even as a backup. He has no practice squad eligibility either, so this will likely be the end of the line for Wright in Miami.

Quentin Moses

I’m not going to lie, Moses has looked good at times this preseason. The problem for him is that the outside linebacker position in Miami is very crowded, even when you exclude the enigma that is Matt Roth.

Cameron Wake and Charlie Anderson should earn the top backup jobs, and I’m choosing to keep Erik Walden over Moses for a couple reasons. 1) Walden has had a strong preseason as well and is a stud on special teams, whereas Moses doesn’t stand out there; 2) Walden is a little younger; and 3) Moses has been around longer and has largely been a disappointment in the NFL.

I wouldn’t object if Moses made the team because the kid does have talent hidden away in there somewhere, but overall I think Walden is the more valuable player.

J. D. Folsom

Folsom has made a few plays late in the team’s preseason games, but he didn’t even get into their last game against Tampa Bay and I think he might be better suited for the practice squad at this point. William Kershaw (who might not make the team either) is a more seasoned special teams player and can likely contribute more in 2009, whereas Folsom should be able to develop on the practice squad without being snatched up by another team.

Joey Thomas

Thomas hasn’t looked bad at times in camp and the preseason, but he was always a long shot to make the team even before Eric Green was released. Nathan Jones is the superior blitzer and special teams player, while Jason Allen, bust as he may be, is a standout special teamer. The Dolphins won’t be keeping more than five corners, which once again put Thomas out of a job. He might not land anywhere else, so the Dolphins could come calling during the regular season if they need an injury replacement.

Will Billingsley

Quite possibly the longest shot of anyone still on the roster, Billingsley’s impending release is about as certain as tomorrow’s sunrise. He’s been the lowest corner on the depth chart for the entire camp (though he did move from 8th to 7th with Green’s departure) and was the quarterbacks’ whipping boy in practice all August. He could get another year on the practice squad, but I suspect the team would prefer a better prospect in that spot.

Courtney Bryan

Bryan is one of those unfortunate guys that’s had his NFL career screwed up by getting too much playing time early on. 12 appearances as a rookie in 2007 has rendered him void of practice squad eligibility, thus making it much harder for a fringe player like Bryan to continue to play pro ball because he’s either on the active roster or a free agent.

Bryan is a solid special teamer and could always end up with a job in Miami or elsewhere down the line (likely due to injury) but he doesn’t have a shot at beating Chris Clemons or Tyrone Culver for a backup safety job in 2009.

Matt Roth

No, I’m not cutting Miami’s best run-stopping outside linebacker. I am, however, placing him on the Physically-Unable-to-Perform list to start the season. (You can’t add an active player to the PUP list if he doesn’t begin camp on it, but Roth can be moved there since he began camp on the Non-Football Injury list.)

Roth’s a strong contributor when healthy and I dare say Miami needs him against the run because Joey Porter is so weak on that department, but I can’t justify giving him a roster spot after all he’s done (or not done) this preseason. I honestly don’t know what the deal is with him and his mysterious, invisible groin injury.

By placing him on the PUP list, the team gives Roth six weeks to get his act together and get healthy (if he isn’t already). If he still isn’t willing to get on the field in October, they will probably place him on injured reserve. He’s only hurting himself in a contract year if he doesn’t play.

The positive side of a Roth deactivation would be that it gives Miami another roster spot with which to play and lets them to keep one more player that normally would be cut. I’d recently predicted a final roster spot could come down to Lex Hilliard, Brandon London, Erik Walden and Quentin Moses, but Roth off the active roster has allowed me to keep both London and Walden—two very valuable special teams players.

The Lucky 53 (for now…)

I often hear disagreements when I said a certain player should be cut, but I feel that without going through the roster and picking out 53 men to make the team, you can’t really get an idea of whether or not a Hilliard or London or Moses anyone else is really worthy of a spot.

That being the case, here are the 53 players that would be making the team if the cuts go as I’ve outlined above. I encourage you to look at this roster before second guessing any of my cut decisions.

Quarterbacks (3): Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White
Running backs (4): Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Patrick Cobbs, Lousaka Polite
Wide receivers (6): Ted Ginn Jr., Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Greg Camarillo, Patrick Turner, Brandon London
Tight ends (3): Anthony Fasano, David Martin, Joey Haynos
Offensive linemen (9): Jake Long, Justin Smiley, Jake Grove, Donald Thomas, Vernon Carey, Andrew Gardner, Brandon Frye, Joe Berger, Shawn Murphy
Defensive linemen (7): Jason Ferguson, Paul Soliai, Kendall Langford, Randy Starks, Phillip Merling, Tony McDaniel, Lionel Dotson
Outside linebackers (5): Joey Porter, Jason Taylor, Cameron Wake, Charlie Anderson, Erik Walden
Inside linebackers (4): Channing Crowder, Akin Ayodele, Reggie Torbor, William Kershaw
Cornerbacks (5): Will Allen, Sean Smith, Vontae Davis, Nathan Jones, Jason Allen
Safeties (4): Gibril Wilson, Yeremiah Bell, Tyrone Culver, Chris Clemons
Special teams (3): Dan Carpenter, Brandon Fields, John Denney

Now keep in mind, just because a player survives final cuts does not mean he will be on the roster come opening day. Every team claims a couple guys off waivers from other teams’ cuts each year, and Miami is sure to do the same. Last year, the team waived three players that survived cuts and claimed three off waivers from other teams.

If I had to highlight a few players that are most likely to be replace but a waiver claim, I would go with Brandon London, Joey Haynos, Brandon Frye and William Kershaw. These are all bottom of the roster guys that could end up being shown the door if an upgrade becomes available on the waiver wire.

 

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Chris Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins blog, which can be found here.

Miami Dolphins Waive Four As Preseason Winds Down

As I predicted in my Dolphins-Bucs game observations, the Dolphins have trimmed a few players off their roster despite already being well under the looming 75-man cut-down limit. Waived are wide receiver Anthony Armstrong, nose tackle Louis Ellis placekicker Connor Barth, while fullback Joe Kowalewski has been waived/injured.

The Dolphins’ active roster now stands at just 66 players—14 under the current 80-man limit. Teams must cut down to 75 players by Sept. 1, and to the final 53 players on Sept. 5. The Dolphins won’t need to take any action until that final cut day, though we could see more sporadic moves such as these between now and then.

Anthony Armstrong

After initially surviving last year’s final cuts (until Brandon London was claimed off waivers), second-year receiver Anthony Armstrong has failed to last until the first round of cuts in 2009.

A burner who is lacking in the bulk department at 5-11 and 175 pounds, Armstrong drew rave reviews from some beat writers during minicamps but faded in training camp. The Dolphins clearly didn’t give him much of a chance when it came to playing in the preseason and he was stuck on the bottom of the depth chart all August.

Armstrong has two years of practice squad eligibility remaining, but it remains to be seen if either party is interested in such a reunion. Given how early the Dolphins cut him this year and the fact that Armstrong might be bitter about his lack of opportunity, I suspect this split might be permanent.

Armstrong is a solid deep threat and could land on another team’s practice squad, but I don’t know how much of a future he has at the NFL level. It’s a shame the Arena league folded, because he definitely had the tools to be a stud there. If I were him, I’d give the CFL or UFL a shot. He has the skills to play pro ball, even if it’s not at the highest level.

Louis Ellis

Out of the four transactions today, this was the one that surprised me the most. When the Dolphins waived Joe Cohen last week, I thought Ellis was a shoo-in for a practice squad spot. Granted that still could happen, but I would imagine if you liked a guy for the practice squad you’d at least keep him until final cuts.

(For reference, all seven of Miami’s initial 2008 practice squad players that attempted camp with the team survived the first wave of cuts, so this does not bode well for Ellis.)

Ellis dominated at Division II Shaw University, but the NFL is a whole different ballgame and it’s no surprise that Ellis wasn’t ready yet. I do like his potential though, and I’d like to see him back on the practice squad as a developmental guy. Miami doesn’t have an immediate need at nose tackle, but they’ll need one soon and a young, long-term guy is high on the wishlist.

Connor Barth

Barth was brought in to light a fire under second-year kicker Dan Carpenter, who was struggling in camp after a strong showing as a rookie in 2008. Barth got into a few preseason games with Miami, going 2-for-2 on field goals and 2-for-2 on extra points. Unfortunately for Barth, the incumbent Carpenter was just as good and has a slightly stronger leg.

It was worth a shot for the Dolphins to bring in another leg to challenge Carpenter, but in the end Barth was unable to lift himself high enough to force the Dolphins to make a change. Miami should be fine with Carpenter in 2009, and Barth should get some looks from other NFL teams down the road. He’s also a candidate to re-sign with Miami if Carpenter were to be injured during the regular season.

Joe Kowalewski

Miami brought in Kowalewski to share reps with starter Lousaka Polite during camp after Chris Brown was waived, but he really never had a shot at making the team. The Dolphins typically only keep one fullback on the active roster, and Polite wasn’t going anywhere.

Because Kowalewski was waived/injured, he’ll have to pass through waivers before reverting to the Dolphins’ injured reserve list. His injury is likely minor and he should be let go with an injury settlement in the coming days.

Kowalewski is solid backup fullback material and would have had a more significant pro career to date if he hadn’t lost his practice squad eligibility during his time with the New York Jets. It’s unknown at this point if Kowalewski impressed the Dolphins enough to garner consideration for re-signing if Polite were to be injured during the regular season.

 

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Chris Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins blog, which can be found here.

Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Random Observations

Lightning interrupted the Miami Dolphins’ preseason contest with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last night, but the Dolphins’ offense was far from electric as the team squeaked past the Bucs to move to 3-0. (Don’t you love it when things give you the opportunity for clever little intros like that? Thanks, Weather!)

As I’ve done with the previous two games, I’m just listing random observations from the game as well as any other comments I feel about a player’s ever-changing chance of making the roster. I’ll be doing videos again when the regular season rolls around, but for now, this should suffice.

And off we go:

Random Observations

• Chad Pennington finished with a pretty good line due in large part to a long completion with Brian Hartline, but overall I thought it was a weak performance. The third preseason game is when starters play the most, so it was pretty disappointing to see the offense struggle like it did.
• On the positive side, Pennington made a great play on the touchdown to Anthony Fasano, as well as on the play-action fake that resulted in a 54-yard completion to Hartline while Pennington was throwing across his body.
• Chad Henne had what I would consider his worst game as a pro. He and Pennington both sat in the pocket too long at times, while pulling the ball down too quickly and scrambling for a minimal gain at others. I don’t know if the coverage was just amazing or what, but the Dolphins’ passing game was not impressive overall.
• The running game never really got going last night either. I’m not concerned about the backs, but the offensive line needs to do their job better.
• Lex Hilliard (or the second coming of Barry Sanders, if you’ve been reading Miami papers and fan forums) didn’t help himself last night and reminded all of us that he is not in fact a lock to make this team. People forget that his good runs have come in the fourth quarter against guys that are going to be cut soon. This guy is not indispensable.
• Brian Hartline was impressive, and would have had an even better line if he hadn’t gotten a fantastic reception taken away on a bogus offensive pass interference call. There was mutual, insignificant hand contact on both parties; it was the kind of thing that happens on every play in football.
• It was nice to see Greg Camarillo make a big play, though you could tell his speed was lacking a little bit as he recovers from knee surgery. He’s not actually a lock to make the team, but I expect he will. Would I be entirely surprised if Miami kept five wideouts and Brandon London made it over Camarillo? Not entirely. It’s not likely, but it’s something to consider.
• Fasano showed once again why he’s such a good red-zone threat. Little-seen John Nalbone also recorded a reception, but I thought Joey Haynos was more impressive overall and made some good blocks. I think Nalbone’s better suited for the practice squad.
• Nobody really stood out in a positive way on the offensive line. They did give Miami’s quarterbacks good protection at times though, and a few of the sacks allowed were coverage sacks rather than protection mistakes.
• Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham did a little too much running over Miami’s defense. I know it was raining for the third straight game, but these guys have to take better angles and wrap-up on tackles. Akin Ayodele had seven tackles in the game, but that total should have been even higher.
• Despite the run defense’s struggles, I was impressed at times with the following guys: Kendall Langford, Tony McDaniel, Lionel Dotson and Paul Soliai. I’m pretty comfortable with our defensive line. Their job is to create space for the linebackers to make tackles, and they are. The linebackers and safeties just aren’t following through on their end.
• Quentin Moses and Erik Walden each had a few good pass rushes, and it’ll be interesting to see if either can secure a roster spot. I don’t think both will, but one definitely should. If it were me, I’d give it to Walden because he’s a stud on special teams and Moses has done less with more time as a pro.
• William Kershaw had a solid game, while J. D. Folsom was one of five Miami players that didn’t even get into the game. That’s pretty telling, and I think Folsom might be headed for the practice squad.
• The Dolphins secondary did an O.K. job, but I’d prefer to see them make more plays when they’re in good position. There were some completions that should have been knockdowns and some knockdowns that should have been interceptions. Still, I’m pretty content with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith seeing significant playing time as rookies.
• Nathan Jones recorded another sack, rushing through untouched just like he did a few times last year. I’m not quite sure if he’s just in the right place at the right time or he has a knack for the thing, but either way it can’t be bad.
• Connor Barth didn’t get into the game last night, so the kicking competition appears to be over. He gave it a good run, but he didn’t show enough to beat out Dan Carpenter.
• I can understand the team not wanting to use Ted Ginn, Jr. on returns and if they don’t I’m okay with it, but he’s certainly better at it than anyone on the team. He’s really the only guy we have that can take it all the way.
• On the other side of the spectrum, Davone Bess was painful to watch last night. The guy just does not have the speed to get around the edge. He certainly doesn’t need to be running backwards, because nothing good will come of it. I’d like to see a little more Hartline there.

As the preseason winds down and cuts loom, here are some dates to remember:

• Sept. 1 – Cutdown to 75
• Sept. 3 – Dolphins preseason finale at New Orleans
• Sept. 5 – Cutdown to 53

The Dolphins currently have 70 players on the roster, so they won’t have to make any cuts until September 5. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team trimmed a few players off the bottom of the roster between now and the last game.

Some of the most likely candidates in my view to be cut before the deadline are: WR James Robinson, WR Anthony Armstrong, G Mark Lewis, DE Ryan Baker, DE Rodrique Wright, CB Will Billingsley, and K Connor Barth. None of those guys has a real chance to make the roster, and it’s possible the team won’t keep them around until final cuts.

Be sure to check back in the next few days, as I’ll take a closer look at the Dolphins’ roster and do my best to figure out just who those final 53 will be. Keep in mind though, just because a player survives cuts doesn’t mean he’s safe. Three players last year initially survived cuts (Anthony Armstrong, Trey Darilek, Rob Ninkovich) only to be waived before the regular season when three players from to other teams’ cuts (Andy Alleman, Nate Garner, Brandon London) were claimed off waivers.

 

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Chris Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins blog, which can be found here.

Three Ex-Miami Dolphins Not Unemployed For Long

It’s not exactly relevant to the Miami Dolphins, but I’m sort of an NFL nerd and like to follow all the happenings around the league. That being the case, I thought I’d offer a little news and analysis on the recent moves of three former Dolphins.

As I’m sure you already know by now, the Dolphins released or waived six players yesterday. Three of those players have already found new homes, with tight end Ernest Wilford re-joining the Jaguars, linebacker Orion Martin being claimed by Detroit and defensive tackle Joe Cohen landing in Oakland.

These players didn’t work out in Miami, but could they fare better in their new (or in Wilford’s case, old) homes?

Ernest Wilford

Wilford was huge bust for Miami, lasting just one season into four-year, $13 million contract that included a $6 million signing bonus. He caught three passes for 25 yards in 2008 and was moved to tight end during the offseason before being cut loose yesterday.

According to reports, the Jaguars had wanted to move Wilford to tight end a few years back and intend to utilize him there now. It’s probably the right move, as his inability to get separation as a wideout is well-documented.

Not to mention, he’s been working all offseason the new position and has gained some 20 pounds to facilitate the move, so he’s certainly not in any condition to give it another go out wide.

In my view, Wilford wasn’t cut by the Dolphins because he had no potential at tight end. Rather, he didn’t show enough progression to warrant keeping as a third-string tight end under his extremely large contract. Now that he likely has a very manageable deal in Jacksonville, he should have every opportunity to make the team.

Wilford certainly won’t be supplanting 2006 first-round pick in Marcedes Lewis, but the Jaguars don’t have to much talent at tight end beyond him. Sixth-round pick Zach Miller (not the one from the Raiders) is a former college quarterback who is currently nursing a knee injury, while journeymen Richard Angulo and Greg Estandia haven’t shown much as pros and aren’t locks for the No. 3 job.

Wilford certainly has the best hands of any of Jacksonville’s tight ends after Lewis. He also has the biggest potential to be a red-zone threat and matches up well with opposing linebackers because of his history at wide receiver blended with his size and speed.

Despite his struggles in Miami, he’s a hard worker and should continue to refine his blocking technique.

Am I saying Wilford will be a successful NFL tight end, or even that he’ll make the Jaguars’ roster? No, I’m not. But, just as when he was in Miami, I am intrigued by his potential as a tight end and do think there’s a chance he could be productive there. Now that he doesn’t have a big contract and big expectations, all he has to do is play ball.

Orion Martin

A former defensive end at Virginia Tech, Martin went undrafted in 2009 and was attempting to make the Dolphins’ roster at inside linebacker. He really didn’t have a shot to make the team behind William Kershaw and J. D. Folsom, and the writing was on the wall for Martin when he didn’t even play in Miami’s second preseason game against Carolina on Saturday.

Although he shifted to linebacker for Miami’s 3-4 scheme, I have to imagine he’ll go back to defensive end in Detroit’s 4-3. At 6-2, 260 pounds, he’s not really a prototypical 4-3 linebacker.

The only thing that makes me wonder is the fact that his signing comes on the heels of an injury to Lions linebacker Darnell Bing.

Assuming he played defensive end, Martin doesn’t stand a realistic shot at making the team out of the gate. He’s not a great pro prospect to begin with, he’s coming into camp late and there are just too many bodies in front of him.

Martin does have a shot at earning a practice squad gig, but it’s far from a sure thing.

Joe Cohen

A fourth-round pick by the San Francisco 49ers in 2007, Cohen was carried over to the Dolphins’ offseason roster in 2009 after a practice squad stint last season. He was fighting for a backup nose tackle job with undrafted rookie Louis Ellis, but when you’re fourth on the depth chart at a position that usually has two spots on the active roster, you’re not going to last long.

In Oaland, Cohen finds himself in the difficult position many players find themselves in when signed at this time of year. He’s joining a new team late in camp and thus is very behind in learning the scheme and impressing the coaching staff.

I don’t expect Cohen to make the Raiders’ active roster from Week 1, as I imagine the defensive tackles will be Tommy Kelly, Terdell Sands, Gerard Warren and William Joseph will secure those spots (though possibly only the first three).

The good news for Cohen is, out of the three other uncertainties—Joseph, Ryan Boschetti and Desmond Bryant—only Cohen and Bryant have practice squad eligibility. Bryant is an undrafted rookie free agent out of Harvard who is coming of an unimpressive college career in the Ivy League and is transitioning from defensive end.

That being the case, I’d have to give Cohen the edge there. He has the talent to be a reserve defensive tackle in this league and should be worthy of a practice squad spot in Oakland.

 

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Chris Nelson is a journalism major at Georgia State University. He operates his own Miami Dolphins blog, which can be found here.

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