Back From an Extended Break With Week 10 Analysis for the AFC North

With half of the 2009-10 season in the books, I am once again inclined to dig deep into the wealth of football played to give some insights about current standings and the future of the teams in the AFC North.

Well, as unlikely as it seemed coming into the season, the Cincinnati Bengals are first in the AFC North, and will likely (although after the last “Ohio Bowl,” who knows…) finish undefeated inside the division after sweeping Pittsburgh and Baltimore.

In a tight second place are the Steelers, who are attempting to defend their Super Bowl championship with the first back-to-back Super Bowl wins since New England did so at the beginning of the decade.

In a surprising third place ranking are the Baltimore Ravens, who should get back on the winning side of .500 Monday night against the Browns.

Speaking of whom, no surprise that the Cleveland Browns are at the bottom of the division (and league, according to many analysts).

The reasons for the startling rankings through the division are many in number, and have various sources. For the Bengals, I attribute a lot of their success to the health of Carson Palmer.

With a real threat under center, added to the rise of RB Cedric Benson, the team got better instantly. The real, and often overlooked reason for their 7-2 record the Bengals currently hold, is the defense and Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer.

Zimmer has been an anchor for a defense who always had potential, but merely lacked direction. Since his tenure began, Zimmer has helped shape the physical, hard-hitting, often-blitzing face the Bengal Defense currently sports.

His leadership has transcended the game of football, as the tragic death of his wife sparked an inspired effort from the Bengal defense (currently second in the league in rush defense).

The Bengals, indeed, seem to be a fearsome opponent this season, much like Ochocinco predicted on “Hard Knocks.” 

In an equally shocking standing, the Pittsburgh Steelers are second in the division with a 6-3 record. While both the Steelers and the Bengals will undoubtedly make the playoffs, the lack of division title has got to put a huge chip on the Steelers’ shoulders.

There are many reasons for the three losses (two of which came against the Bengals), but the first two losses can be placed on the shoulders of the defense, who took their time in finding themselves this season, giving up fourth quarter leads to go from what perhaps should have been a 8-0 start to the 6-2 they recorded headed into today’s early game.

The home loss to the Bengals will not be soon forgotten by this Steeler team, but perhaps the bigger concern than the revenge factor is the reason for today’s loss.

The Bengals looked like they blitzed at least 75 percent of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps, something that Pittsburgh should be used to. After watching, and rewatching, I have come to the conclusion that Big Ben Roethlisberger should be calling more plays. A lot more.

The no-huddle offense, run by Roethlisberger, has been a huge source of offensive rhythm for the Steeler Offense. Not only does it keep the offense controlling the tempo of the game for Pittsburgh, but it also keeps the opponent’s defense from being able to make substitutions.

Today’s play calling kept the defense in control of the tempo, and therefore, the game. The screen pass was working well for the Steelers, but the Playcalling did not reflect that fact on the field.

I think Bruce Arians needs to acknowledge his shortcomings today, as his playcalling against a a division rival today most likely cost his team a division title and/or homefield in the postseason.

Changes need to be made, as the Steelers have demonstrated a clear ability to dominate offensively, but need to be given the chance through playcalling, better blocking schemes, and new offensive wrinkles.

Having said all of this, I will reserve the second half of these thoughts until after the Ravens-Browns game on MNF. Thanks for welcoming me back after a long hiatus, everyone!

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Week Three Wrap Up in the AFC North

Another week in the NFL, and once again, fans find themselves on a roller-coaster ride early in this 2009-2010 season. As all four teams had division games this week, let’s delve into the AFC North’s fun-filled adventure.

In Baltimore, the Raven’s took it to the Browns and never really let up. With a final score of 34-3, it is the largest margin of victory this week (beating the Giants, who blanked the Bucs 24-0).

While there are many factors as to why this was never even really a game, the most obvious is talent.

Coach Eric Mangini simply does not have enough talent on the roster in Cleveland to compete with a team that has been scary-good in every game so far this year. Example: The Browns won possession to begin the game, threw an interception, and allowed it to be turned into a touchdown less than five minutes into the game.

QB turmoil started anew in Cleveland, as Brady Quinn was benched for lack of production, paving the way for Derek Anderson to show Mangini that he made the wrong choice to start the season. Unfortunately for Anderson, he had no better luck against the Raven’s defense than Quinn did, and the two QB’s combined to go 17 of 27 for 126 yards and four (that’s right, FOUR) INT’s.

Coach Mangini is expected to name a starter (yes, this AGAIN!) by Wednesday, leaving Browns fans to wonder if they will ever see the 2007 magic again. Conversely, Ravens QB Joe Flacco threw a career day: 25 for 35 for 342 yards, 1 TD.

It appears that the Ravens’ defense is starting to come together (and this was definitely a game that gave it the opportunity), but like most, I am astonished at the way the Ravens have relied on their offense to win games.

As curious as this seemed to me at the beginning of the season, it is obviously a strategy that is working, as the Ravens remain undefeated and the class of the AFC North.

While one Ohio team is struggling, another is surging and living up to their own hype. In Cincinnati, the Bengals held on just long enough to put together a final drive, resulting in a TD and a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bengals, mostly lifeless during the first three quarters (Steelers led 20-9 headed into the fourth quarter, even after giving up a pick-six), found some magic from QB Carson Palmer late in the fourth.

Palmer led a 16-play, 71-yard drive which ended with a four-yard pass to Andre Caldwell who was wide open in the middle of the end zone.

While the Bengals played well and are enjoying a victory they have not experienced since Chad Ochocinco was a rookie, the Steelers and their fans are grimacing once again. For the second week in a row, chances to put a team away have come and gone.

The early game dominance began to fade away when Roethlisberger threw a beautiful pass to Limas Sweed in the end zone, only to have Sweed lose control of the ball as he hit the ground—resulting in an incomplete pass (on a personal note, I have watched and rewatched that catch until my eyes hurt, and to me, it looked like Sweed let go of the ball as his back hit the ground a second time after bouncing from initial impact, which by rule is a completion).

The play immediately following was a painful reminder of the previous week, a missed field goal by Jeff Reed (usually one of the most reliable legs in the league, Reed has now missed three in the past two games).

Following these back-to-back missed opportunities, the Bengals struck back, once off a 23 yard run from Cedric Benson, and the other game winning drive (kept alive on 4th-and-10 by an 11-yard gain on a pass to the halfback Brian Leonard).

The Steelers, usually a team known for generating turnovers, has failed to do so in the past two games. Their defense has been excellent in clutch situations, and has failed to step up in the past two games. That said, the defense did play very well, holding the Bengals to a net total of negative 10 yards in the first quarter (that’s right, -10 yards!).

The offense did play well, however has been unable to seal the deal, due mostly to dropped passes and missed field goals.

Steelers WR Hines Ward put the Steelers 1-2 record into perspective pretty well following another heartbreak loss: “If we score touchdowns in the first half, it’s not even a game, it’s 24-0 or 24-3. It’s not very good. You’ve got to put up seven points instead of 3s. That’s how you finish a team off.”

Well said.

On the other side of the ball, the defense is clearly missing All-Pro Safety Troy Polamalu. While they have been effective, they have not come up in the clutch situations that they have been notorious for doing in the past. In the end, I think DE Brett Keisel summed up the Steelers woes fairly well in his postgame interview:

What allowed them to come back and win today?

“They made big plays and we didn’t. It’s something we need to rectify if we are going to be the great team that we strive to be. It’s disappointing, but we have the type of team that knows when things are going wrong. Hopefully, everyone can check himself and come in ready to work on Wednesday.”

 

Is it encouraging to know you are close to being 3-0, or is it frustrating to know you haven’t been able to get over the hump and stand at 1-2?

“It’s frustrating. I felt like all game we were in control. Even when they made the big pick, we were playing tough. Then, things shifted on us. They made a great drive at the end. They made the plays and we did not.”

 

What’s the fatigue level like at the end of a game when things are happening like they did today?

“I don’t think we were tired. I don’t think anyone was tired. It was a matter of making plays and not making plays. We strive to be a great defense. We strive to make those plays. If we don’t start making them, it’s going to be a long year.”

As we head into the fourth week, lets look ahead and make a few predictions. It will be the showdown in Ohio this week, as the Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the Browns. This should be another win for the Bengals, and barring some kind of fluke or serious under-appreciation on the part of the Bengals, the Browns should be 0-4 and the Bengals should advance to 3-1.

The Ravens will have arguably the toughest challenge this week, as they head to New England to take on the Patriots. As Brady continues to struggle finding his groove, Flacco could have one of the biggest games of his life as he looks to outshine fellow second year QB Matt Ryan once again.

That said, NE opened up the run very effectively in week three, and shut down Ryan’s favorite reads fairly effectively. I could see this one going either way, but in the end I think the Patriots will find a way to best the Ravens.

As for the Steelers, they have a tough opponent as well in San Diego. However, they could not have gotten the Chargers at a better time (well, except maybe week three) as they are pretty banged up already, especially on the offensive line—a weakness that Baltimore exploited all too well for Chargers QB Phillip Rivers.

Look for the Steelers to generate the same kind of pressure and penetration, and get their season back on track with a much needed win at Hines Field.

To wrap this week’s analysis up, lets just say that this is the NFL, and anything can happen week to week. For instance, if someone had said before the season began that the Steelers would be 1-2 headed into the fourth week, no one would have believed it.

Had someone else said that the Ravens would be atop the AFC North, and led their by its offense, not its defense, they would have been laughed off.

Yet here we are. Certainly, it is still a young season—and as we have seen already, anything can happen, and we can always expect the unexpected.

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Week 2: Highlights, Lowlights, Disappointment, and Upset in the AFC North

Well, the picture at Soldier Field showed Steelers kicker Jeff Reed with a very different look on his face. An interesting Week Two for the AFC North has just finished unfolding, and it seems that expecting the unexpected is the theme for this 2009-2010 NFL season.

Looking at the upset first, the Cinncinati Bengals went up to Lambeau Field after a heartbreak loss at Denver last week looking to regain the spark they showed in the offseason and preseason. After an even more impressive preseason, and a hard-fought win against the Bears last week, Green Bay came into Sunday as the heavy favorites.

Unfortunately for the Packers, Carson Palmer came ready to play, as he threw for 3 TD’s.

While not perfect, it was enough to secure the win, as the AFC North Defensive Player of the Week (most likely) DE Antwan Odom racked up five sacks on Aaron Rodgers and kept the Packers’ offense out of sync. The other key difference was Cedric Benson, who ran all over a Packers Defense that kept Chicago’s run stuffed up in Week One, racking up an impressive 141 yards.

Chad Ochocinco has to be happy today, as he got to keep his promise to do the Lambeau Leap after catching one of Palmer’s three TD passes (which probably should have been censored, as Packers fans didn’t appear to appreciate Ochocinco’s antics). All in all, the Bengals have much to celebrate after an impressive upset win as they get ready to host the Steelers next week.

As for the lowlights, there are two really: one is the play of the Cleveland Browns, the other being the play of Jeff Reed. In the so-called “Belichick Bowl” between Eric Mangini’s Browns and Josh McDaniels’ Broncos, Kyle Orton looked fairly well polished as the Browns managed only two field goals in the first quarter and no other scores the rest of the game.

The Broncos finished the Browns off easily, as many Browns fans are feeling despondent for another season.

The Steelers headed into today’s game excited, rested, and eager to start off their title defense 2-0. Unfortunately for them, the Bears put up more of a fight than many expected. Bears QB Jay Cutler looked much more relaxed and comfortable than he did in his disastrous season debut. Cutler kept the Bears in the game, even after Roethlisberger led the Steelers 92 yards for a TD on their opening drive.

In the end, the difference in the game was not the defenses, but rather missed field goals. Pittsburgh’s game tying/winning hero, K Jeff Reed, missed on not one, but two field goal opportunities. Hitting either one would have probably forced OT, and hitting both would have won them the game.

In Reed’s defense, the weather was dreary, and the field appeared to be completely messed up. Usually when wet, sodded ground will tear apart as cleats sink in. Instead, the field at Soldier Field seemed to repel cleats, causing slips by players on both teams.

Bears K Robbie Gould seemed unfazed by the turf, nailing a 41-yarder to win the game. The game should not be all doom and gloom for the Steelers, however. The running game got back off the ground (sorry for the bad pun), as the O-line looked far more polished. Rashard Mendenhall finally showed Steeler Nation why he was a first-round pick, after busting out a nice 39 yard run to help set up the Steelers 2nd TD.

As for the upset, in my opinion at least, it came in San Diego as the Ravens managed to keep Chargers QB Phillip Rivers under raps—literally. Rivers seemed to get hit after every single throw, as the Ravens’ defense came through in a big way (see Ed Reed hitting Darren Sproles in the backfield on 4th-and-1 on the go-ahead for the win).

The offense was back to its Week One form for the Ravens, getting big production, putting up big points (31) on a team usually known for its overwhelming defense. Joe Flacco is continuing to get better, and it shows as the Ravens claim the top spot in the AFC North.

Heading into Week Three, there will be a lot of pressure on the Ravens to continue their dominance on both sides of the ball, as they look to continue to lead the division. The Bengals and Steelers, currently tied for second, will hash out the official second and third place seeds in the division next week (assuming the Ravens win against the last place, 0-2 Cleveland Browns). As for the Browns, they will most likely fall next week, keeping them in 4th, and the Ravens on top. As the saying goes, however, anything can happen on any given Sunday.

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Ben Roethlisberger Leads the Charge as Pittsburgh Steelers Win Season Opener

After watching the 2009 NFL Season Opener, I am still exasperated. What a game, and what a way for the NFL to welcome its fans back to football season. There were several things that both coaches will be happy with coming away from this game, as well as several things that they will be screaming about and trying to fix moving forward.

Welcome back to football as the defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers defeat the Tennessee Titans 13-10 in OT.

As usual, I will focus on the Steelers and will be back Monday night to analyze the play of the rest of the AFC North. Also, due to requests from friends, coworkers, and family, I will begin reporting on the NFC North as well starting soon (which also works out as the inter-conference battle takes place this year).

Shameless plug out of the way, let’s get to some football!

Obviously, the major highlight for the Steelers was the play of Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben was 33 of 43 for 363 yards. This is significant for several reasons. The first is that Roethlisberger has clearly shown that off-field drama (lawsuit claiming sexual misconduct, for anyone who has been living under a rock) has not been a distraction for him and that his is ready to go.

Another reason that factors in is that Big Ben has demonstrated that he can carry the weight of the team on his shoulders even when the running game cannot get going (an issue to be addressed later on).

Also, while less important or relevant to the season, Roethlisberger has, as of tonight, passed Kordell Stewart and moved into second all-time passing yards for the Steelers franchise (10 guesses who No. 1 is…). While all this may seem trivial, it is a huge step in the right direction for a team trying to defend its Super Bowl title.

The Steelers may have had faith in Roethlisberger before, but he came out and justified that faith Thursday night. This means that the Steeler team can keep its head in the game, even through adversity in the run game which can be devastating to morale.

A few observations about the Steelers notables:

Stefan Logan looked pretty sharp tonight against a Titans team who is well known for great Special Teams plays (also read—who doesn’t allow opponents to have good ST play). The offensive line got off to a rough start and never seemed to find a groove for opening up the run game. They did find their niche in the second half for pass protection though.

Coach Mike Tomlin has to be happy about that, even if he is miffed about the former becoming a problem like it was last season.

Rookie production for a fairly deep team (in most areas, as no team has the depth they wish they had in all areas) has got to be making offensive coordinator Bruce Arians and Coach Tomlin very happy—specifically the playmaking ability shown by rookie WR Mike Wallace, whose quick thinking turned a potential throw away/sack into a 22-yard completion to set up the winning field goal.

Additionally, the defense played very well, if a bit rusty. The defense gave up only three points in the second half, and also had a blocked field goal attempt.

Speaking of which, let’s hit some of the low points for the evening. Pittsburgh has got to be holding its breath and saying some silent prayers for the quick recovery of Pro Bowl Safety Troy Polamalu, who suffered a MCL sprain in his left knee on the field goal block.

Coach Tomlin reported that this type of injury usually sidelines a player for three to six weeks, but would not speculate on the specific prognosis of Polamalu. Obviously, his absence will be felt by the Steelers’ defense.

Also, as mentioned earlier, the offensive line seemed to be non-existent in opening up the run game. The Steelers managed to accrue a massive 28 yards rushing on the night. While credit is due to the Titans’ defense in stuffing the run, the Steelers O-line needs to take responsibility for this and work hard on making tonight seem more like a fluke and less like a trend.

In a rare, almost rookie-like mistake, Pro-Bowl WR Hines Ward made a spectacular catch over the middle at the Tennessee 30, and after being hit at the four, tried to plow ahead for more yardage. This caused a fumble near the end of regulation that could have spelled disaster, yet with little time remaining on the clock, Tennessee ran the time out and took their chances in Overtime. They lost the coin toss and never saw the ball again.

Overall, the Steelers put on an impressive performance Thursday night against a very good Titans team. The Steelers have shown the league that no matter the adversity that they face, they are defending Super Bowl Champions for a reason and do not intend to back down.

While they have their work cut out for them, confidence should be riding high in Pittsburgh tonight, and will carry on as they prepare to head to Chicago next week.

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AFC North: 2009-2010 Preview

As we get set for an exciting and drama-soaked 2009-10 season, lets explore the teams of the AFC North and where they stand after one of the more active and closely followed offseasons in recent memory.

 

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have an uphill battle, and while their schedule is easier this year by comparison to last year, their struggles have just begun. The primary issue that everyone is focused on is the QB battle.

Coach Eric Mangini has yet to name his starting QB, leaving many fans and sportswriters scratching their heads. Mangini is all about competitive advantages, and perhaps sees leaving an aura of mystery around his starting QB as an advantage (Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn have very different styles of play, making it harder for teams to prepare to face the Browns from a defensive standpoint).

The flipside to this is that he leaves his personell in limbo. Both QB’s have been pushing each other this offseason, which should lead to better play from both guys; however, with the hesitance to name a starter, Mangini could be creating tension in the locker room as the QBs answer tireless questions about their competition.

Also, the WRs, TEs and O-linemen cannot get into a rhythm until they know who is going to be under center. With different styles of play comes different timing, scrambling tendencies, poise in the pocket, etc.

The point is that while Mangini obviously has a reason for dragging this thing out, it will most likely hinder his team and cause disillusionment from his staff as the Browns have another bleak outlook this year. Prediction—3 or 4 wins if Anderson starts, 4 or 5 with Quinn under center.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals seem very optimistic this year, and many are calling them the sleeper team to watch. This could very well be the case, as star WR Chad Ochocinco appears to be in great shape and focused on football all the way—not to mention the return of QB Carson Palmer.

The problems that this fantasy sleeper faces, though, are plentiful and have already begun to emerge during the preseason; Problem 1—Can the O-line keep Palmer upright and healthy?

Well, obviously not as he went out of the preseason in his first appearance with an ankle injury. He is reported to be fine, and apparently wanted to play in the preseason finale, thankfully for him and Bengals fans everywhere, he sat out.

A key component to the O-line as it struggles to improve was first-round draft pick Andre Smith (6th overall).

This leads to Problem 2—With their top draft choice already out with a fractured foot and battling weight problems (so big a concern, in fact, that there is a weight clause in his contract), the Bengals do not seem to have done enough to open their offense up.

If Smith doesn’t heal quickly, Palmer probably will not make it through the season. His aggressiveness and youth are big factors that the Bengals love—however having missed so much time already (all of training camp, plus all preseason games due to his contract holdout), will he be able to impact the game at all this year? My instincts tell me that it is possible, but highly unlikely.

Neither backup QB really flashed anything special this preseason (JT O’Sullivan showed that he can move the ball, but was anything but consistent; Carson Palmer’s little brother Jordan Palmer looked OK, but seemed too uncomfortable under center to impact the game should his number be called).

Prediction—With a healthy Palmer, 8-9 wins. If (and at this point it seems like I probably should say “when”) Palmer goes down, 4-5 wins.

Baltimore Ravens

This team really shined this offseason. They looked great in camp, and finished 4-0 in the preseason (irrelevant, I know). Most of the team is the same as last year, and Terrell Suggs preseason debut gave Ravens fans even more to cheer about as he returned from offseason surgery.

Joe Flacco, who had a storybook rookie year, looks to have improved and is poised to show the league that his success last year was not a fluke. As part of Flacco’s maturation process, the Ravens have had him working on distributing the ball across the field to different receivers. All of his preseason games have shown that he is comfortable with that—completing passes to six or more different receivers each game.

Meanwhile, behind Flacco, the backfield continues to show that this team will move the ball whether on the ground or through the air. Losses to the defense were pretty mild, although the absence of Bart Scot will be felt. His replacement, Tavares Gooden, looks ready to step up however.

The biggest weakness here, just as last year, will be the WR corps. Outside of Mason, there is not a lot of proven depth. I doubt Mason has another 1,000-yard season left in the tank and the rest of the receivers will have to step it up if Baltimore is going to achieve their goal of dethrowning Pittsburgh. Prediction—11-5.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

The defending Super Bowl champions return 19 of their 22 starters, which is a telling sign that they are not ready to have a 2006 relapse. QB Ben Roethlisberger has had a tough summer between his legal woes and Max Starks’ achilles’ injury during practice). Fortunately for Steeler Nation, none of this seems to be affecting Big Ben, as he had a strong showing in preseason Week Three.

The NFL’s top defense last season looks as dominant as ever, as William Gay and Lawrence Timmons appear more than ready to fill in as full time starters for the departed Bryant McFadden (Arizona) and Larry Foote (Detroit).

The biggest problem with the Steelers last year was their O-line. Not much has changed there, and now Darnell Stapleton is on injured reserve. The Steelers lack a great depth at the O-line, however despite the woes and 47 sacks of last year, still won the Super Bowl.

They will plug up holes with waiver claims, and Trai Essex seems to be holding his own filling in for Stapleton.

The run game looks to get a boost this year, despite the O-line, as Willie Parker returns healthy, along with 2008 first-round pick Rashard Mendenhall. While Mendenhall has not produced consistently during the preseason, remember that he will be splitting snaps with Parker, and once again, preseasons are just practices against people who aren’t on your team.

Perhaps the biggest boost to the Steelers will come in an often overlooked category—Special Teams. Not since Antwaan Randle El has the Steelers Special Teams been potent.

Since Randle El departed, their Special Teams play has been among the worst in the league. Enter free-agent Stefan Logan (former CFL player). Undersized in every way by NFL standards, Logan has turned heads and cemented a spot on the final 53 man roster with amazing play during the preseason, including an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown in the preseason finale.

All in all, the Steelers seem ready to show that the Patriots aren’t the only team that can win back to back Super Bowls. Prediction—12-4

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