NFL: Fantasy Football Rookie Report

With some fantasy drafts recently completed by myself, I have decided to look into the fantasy depth and expectations of the rookie class of 2009. I’ve taken the approach of looking at the key offensive positions, where the players may be drafted, their possible playing time and touches, and their possible fantasy output.

The motive for this is mainly selfish, as I tend to only play in keeper leagues (I prefer to let the newbies play draft and trades). Of course, you won’t agree with some (or maybe any) of my views—but there is a reason I annually finish in the top third of all my keeper leagues.

Quarterbacks

1. Mark Sanchez (NYJ)—Middle rounds of fantasy drafts. The newly named starter of the Jets probably has the best potential to contribute at the position. He has a ground game in NY and some reliable targets at TE and WR in place to go along with a great offensive line.

I drafted him as a backup, or trade bait, in one of my larger leagues and expect numbers similar to Flacco’s 2008 campaign—around 2,800 yards and 16 TDs with about 12-14 ints.

2. Matthew Stafford (DET)—Undrafted or late rounds in deep leagues. Scouts have raved about his NFL-style approach since high school, but it is unclear if he will start from day one. (I don’t see what harm he could possibly do to the team.) I expect he starts from day one, or at least by week six.

I’m optimistic on his numbers mainly because he has a good young running back with him, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew (continue reading), and they will be playing catch-up in most outings. I’m counting on about the same numbers as Sanchez, even if he doesn’t start until a couple weeks in.

3. Pat White (MIA)—Middle rounds in most leagues, upper third of deep leagues. Maybe the hardest cat to figure out of the rookie class. Amid clouds of questions as to how he will be used, I would expect simply effectively. Yardage wise, I would venture a guess of about 1,000 combined rushing a passing with eight TDs, give or take. I will be honest here; he is a completed guess.

4. Josh Freeman (TB)—Largely undrafted. Doesn’t look like he will start on opening day, but then again news broke today that Tampa is shopping a QB—which could open the door for the 6’6″, 250 lb. monster. Nothing more than a third option in leagues with 12 plus teams.

Running Backs

1. Knowshon Moreno (DEN)—Middle rounds. A team full of holes on defense doesn’t take a RB No. 12 overall if they don’t plan to use him. Although I am not overly impressed with him or the touches he may receive, I would think that 1,000 rushing yards mixed in with more than a handful of catches (see, Orton to Forte). He’s your perfect No. 1 bench back that you don’t have to overspend on.

2. Chris Wells (ARZ)—Middle rounds in all leagues. I do not love him as an NFL player. Average size, speed, hands and toughness usually equal an average NFL career. However, with that said, he is my favorite rookie RB for 2009. So why did I rank him second? Injuries.

If healthy, he’ll get his touches on his way to 850 rushing yards, 150 receiving, and eight total TDs. Not a bad hall for a rookie. I grabbed him very leate as my No. 3 back in two big leagues—and I am excited by the sheer number of touches he should receive.

3. Donald Brown (IND)—Middle rounds. With the injury history of Joseph Addai coupled with the departure of Harrison as a target, the Colts may run or dump to backs in the red zone more in 2009. That plays well for a rookie in a potent offense. He’s probably a lock for 800 combined yards and four to six TDs. He is only another Addai injury away from 1,200 total yards and a great season.

4. LeSean McCoy (PHI)—Middle and late rounds in all drafts. I saw him play live a few times, and he is the fastest player I have ever seen live. He is special on returns as well and has above average hands.

It has been made clear publicly that he is a clone to Westbrook in terms of how he can be utilized. That should be enticing to anyone who is aware of the 30 year old Westbrook’s injury history. I’m thinking somewhere around 500 rushing yards and 200 receiving with five TDs. Not bad as a handcuff if you own Westbrook or you stumble on him in the bottom third of your draft.

5. Shonn Green (NYJ)—Late rounds. The Jets seemed to target him by trading some picks to land him. Not sure where he fits into a crowded backfield in NYJ, but take whatever you think Leon Washington is worth, minus the return yardage.

6. Glen Coffee (SF)—Late rounds in deep leagues/largely undrafted in leagues under 12 teams. He could see some playing time in coach Mike Singletary’s run-first offense and with the recent regress made by Gore. If you own him, hope for 500 rush yards and five TDs. Potential to get some touches however if he proves useful early.

 

Wide Receivers

1. Percy Harvin (MIN)—Top third to middle third of drafts. I am not sold on him, but he has been drafted first among the rookies in my leagues and I suppose with good reason in a below average field. With Brett, I would say 600 yards and four TDs are not a reach. He could find himself some rushing yards as well.

2. Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK)—Middle rounds in most leagues. I am not a believer of any Oakland players. I think he will prove to be a bust, and I would be happy with 700 yards and four TDs from him.

3. Hakeem Nicks (NYG)—Middle to late rounds in deep leagues. He has gone undrafted in a few leagues, and I am not sure why. Anyone that saw him play in college loves his stuff, and the opportunity in NY in there. Eli is looking for a No. 1 and if he builds rapport, he has breakout rookie receiver written all over him.

4. Jeremy Maclin (PHI)—Middle to late rounds. He has good value as a bench player in leagues counting return yards, and he should see the field a bunch in 2009. I like his chances as good return numbers and 700 yards with limited touchdowns. He won’t be a red zone target due to his size and Philly’s options (Westbrook, Jackson, Curtis, Brown, McCoy, Celek), but don’t doubt his ability to break away.

5. Brian Robiskie (CLE)—Undrafted. I may catch heat for this, but who else does Cleveland have after Edwards now that Stallworth is banned? He was a red zone target at OSU, and it would be nice if he could continue that in the NFL. Possibly 500+ yards and 5/6 TDs. Not a bad haul if you are in a huge league and looking for a fill-in.

6. Kenny Britt (TEN)—Undrafted. Loved the way he played at Rutgers, and he has the potential with the Titans’ limited receivers to make an impact. His height gives him an advantage inside the twenty, and I like him for 600 yards and five scores. Don’t be surprised if he gets on the field often though and leads the team in receptions.

Tight Ends

1. Brandon Pettigrew (DET)—Later third rounds, undrafted. A deep TE crop across the NFL makes Pettigrew, who the Lions moved up to grab, the only one worth looking at.

I do like Shawn Nelson and Chase Coffman as well. The Lions moved up to get him in the first, and I like pairing young QBs with TEs. He can do it all (even block) and I expect him to be a red zone target. If you start two TEs, or have a flex that includes them, don’t think that 500 yards and five TDs are out of the picture.

 

I am guessing many of you have looked into the 2009 class, mainly for your own selfish reasons, and undoubtedly will have your opinions. Of course there are some others worth looking at, and there are some flying under the radar as usual who will break out. Please, as always, let me know where you feel I am off – I’ll gladly receive your advice in order to dominate yet another season of keeper leagues.

2009 NFC Season Outlook

Here it is June, and I am sick. It can’t be cabin fever considering it is 85 degrees out and I have been working outside. Finally, I was able to self diagnose my illness while standing in the magazine aisle at Wegman’s the other night.

There I was, diving into fantasy football magazines when it hit me. I have football fever, and it is a bad case. Can’t be cured until September!

So, I began self medicating the other night by scouring over the 2009 season reviews and thinking about how it will play out. Below are team-by-team projections, and I even get into premature playoff pictures. I told you I had a bad case.

NFC North

1. Chicago Bears (10-6)

They have a brutal schedule, but their easy games are easy. Cutler will love playing with a defense behind him. In a division where anyone has a shot (remember the 2008 Dolphins before you slaughter the Lions), the addition of Culter and emergence of Forte are enough to propel them.

 

2. Green Bay Packers (9-7)

Rodgers proved that the administration was on to something when they felt not much would be lost from the quarterback position without Favre. They are talented enough to win the division, but the mix of Cutler, defense, and Forte are worth one more win.

 

3. Minnesota Vikings (7-9)

That is with or without Brett. Favre would be a great upgrade (and he will play if health allows), but in my estimation they over-achieved in 2008.

 

4. Detroit Lions (4-12).

A 400% win increase. They’ve put some pieces in place, but about 15 more are needed. Just enjoy watching Calvin Johnson. I’d keep your eyes on Pettigrew (Stafford’s Heath Miller) and Kevin Smith (solid back). Then again, why would you tune in to them in the first place?

 

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

This is always the toughest division to figure out. My thinking here is simply this: the best receivers are gone from both the Giants and Cowboys.

Granted, the Giants added Nicks, who is similar to Burress, but the Eagles return their core and added playmakers in Ellis Hobbs and LeSean McCoy. Loved McCoy in college (fastest I have ever seen live), and perfect fit for the Eagles offense.

 

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)

Again, the loss of T.O. will hurt on the field. Roy Williams is no slouch, but he is not T.O. either. DeMarcus Ware and that defense will get them 10 wins.

 

3. New York Giants (8-8)

I just don’t see Nicks stepping in to make Eli forget about the loss of Plaxico. The ground game is incredible behind what is perhaps the best line in football, but you cannot tell me that Hixon, Smith, and Sinorice Moss are suppose to stretch the field and give Jacobs room to run.

Even if they do eek into the playoffs, a one-dimensional offense is dangerous.

4. Washington Redskins (6-10)

Washington could win a divisional title in nearly any division except this one. I, like ownership, am not sold on Campbell. Could that lead to a possible Vick appearance? Wow would the activists in the D.C. area have a field day with that.

Albert Haynesworth can help keep the backs in this division in check, and their losses will be close ones—as usual with this division.

 

NFC South

1. Carolina Panthers (10-6)

In a division where the crown annually changes hands, I expect the Panthers or Falcons to emerge. I am betting the Panthers will hold on because of the superior duo in the backfield and a defense just a tad more formidable than that of Atlanta and New Orleans.

 

2. Atlanta Falcons (9-7)

I like Matt Ryan and what they have in place there. I’m just expecting a small pullback only because of the rough division. It will be interesting to see what Tony Gonzalez’s stat line looks like at the end of the year.

3. New Orleans Saints (7-9)

Probably the most potent offense in the NFC continues to be hindered by their sub par defense. As this division has shown, defense is a must to take the lead.

Brees will throw for ridiculous numbers, and their multi-talented back will have a great season, just not quite enough until that pesky defense is shored up. By the way, that back I speak of is Pierre Thomas—jump off the Bush bandwagon if you are still on it.

 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11)

They found themselves in control of the division after 11 weeks last season, then stumbled home and missed the playoffs. Their fiery leader and winning quarterback left, while the rest of the team, including an aging defense, was purged.

This will be a vastly different team that we are used to seeing, and they will take their growing pains.

 

NFC West

1. Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

This is no reflection of their 2008 season. I wanted to pick the Seahawks, but I just can’t do it with Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett as lead runners. In addition, the Cardinals have upgraded at the running back position while managing to keep all the other pieces in tact.

Their defense is vastly underrated and they should control their divisional games.

2. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

I really like the additions of Housmandzadeh and Curry on defense. They will compete within the division for a short while, but an upgrade in the running game is needed before they control the west again.

A 30th ranked defense isn’t helpful either, but that was partly due to them constantly being put in harm’s way.

3. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)

Another rough season by the Bay. They cannot continue to let this lack of new blood at quarterback continue to weigh them down, but they are again in 2009. We have seen it time and time again, inconsistency at the quarterback position leads to prolonged failure.

 

4. St. Louis Rams (5-11)

Oh boy. One-time great at QB, a current great at RB, zero wide-outs that I would fret over if I played CB, and a fresh LT taking over for Orlando Pace. Not to mention the 28th ranked defense from 2008 with no major improvements.

Luckily, they do have a defense mindful and power attack coach in Spagnuolo. Also lucky, the Cardinals will be playing in meaningful games in October, the Rams may not be.

 

Playoffs (winners in italics)

Wildcard

No. 6 Falcons at No. 3 Bears

No. 5 Cowboys at No.4 Cardinals

byes: No. 1 Eagles and No. 2 Panthers

 

Divisional

No. 3 Bears at No. 2 Panthers

No. 5 Cowboys at No. 1 Eagles

 

Championship

#3 Bears at No. 1 Eagles

 

From my point of view, there is no great team from the NFC with a golden ticket to the playoffs. I like many teams from the East, and Atlanta and Carolina have chances to be super teams. In any event, someone is sure to emerge, and as the NFL has demonstrated, it could be anyone… even the Lions.

Feedback from this type of thing is always interesting, and your comments are invited. Don’t be shy, I am stubbornly Irish and well equipped to absorb your criticism and disagreements.

All I ask is that you make valid cases for your arguments. And no, “Tony Romo is awesome” is not a valid argument.

One last thing. Should you be expecting the AFC version soon? No. I try to be objective, but my team plays in the NFC—the AFC is of no concern to me. Actually, Collin Vetter, a friend who can be found on B/R, will handle the other half.

Go easy on him, he is from Philly. Unfortunate…. I know. On second thought, let him have it—Philly fans would.

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