Items by

Philadelphia Eagles—Washington Redskins Notes

Published: November 29, 2009

comment No Comments

If you didn’t know the standings of the teams coming into the game, you’d have thought that the Eagles were the team with the terrible record.

An onside kick, going for it on fourth down twice in the first 12 minutes of game play, two QB draw plays with the backup…it didn’t exactly scream out confidence in your personnel. Or that Cap’n Andy was expecting anything but a 60-minute hairpull, despite the Redskins being, well, terrible. And he got exactly what he expected.

Fox pointed out how everyone was playing the run on a third and one QB draw by Michael Vick. In other words, Washington has actually watched the tape of the 2009 Philadelphia Eagles.

In regard to Redskins QB Jason Campbell, I’ve just never been scared of a QB who reads plays off a wristband. It looks like a little kid who hasn’t studied for a test.

How you keep a bad team around: do not defend third down, and make the opponent’s touchdowns downright easy. I had hopes of the defense gelling in the stretch run, like they’ve done many times before in the Reid Era, but it’s overstating the case to think they looked like that today. Once the offense turned the tide, perhaps. But they’ll need more than that to win playoff games.

Fox cited the Redskins’ injuries, and yes, they’ve been decimated. But it’s kind of telling that so many games are lost to bad franchises. You see this a lot in the NBA; guys that find the training room more interesting than the field in a lost year. If it walks like a dog and barks like a dog, and routinely blows fourth quarter leads…

Did you have 10 minutes left in the second quarter for Sav Rocca’s first terrible punt of the day in your pool? I had the time right, but the wrong quarter. It’s so hard to win that bet. And thanks to Eldra Buckley for a remarkably dumb 15 yard penalty to make that one more memorable. It takes a team wide effort to look like a worse team than the Redskins.

Don’t forget that Campbell to Eagles CB Asante Samuel, with two picks in the late going in the second quarter, is your margin of victory today. Yes, Washington is really bad.

With nine seconds left in the half, the Redskins recovered a squib kick and gave themselves a chance at the Hail Mary, but couldn’t keep Trent Cole from a speed sack of Campbell. Is there a more dispiriting play for an offense than a sack against prevent coverage? I say no. Or, at least, hope so.

Of course Redskins TE Fred Davis registered his longest career catch and an eventual touchdown today. Can we please draft for this next year, Capn Andy? We finally got that No. 1 WR problem taken care of. Hope springs eternal for a stud LB.

Down to a terrible team with the defense taking third downs off, Fox’s Darryl Johnston talked about how the crowd wasn’t into the game. Well, when you give up eight of 10 third down conversions, and your laundry is playing its annual inexplicably awful game against the division’s poor stepchild, it’s not exactly a good thing to watch. Honest. And if I had a dollar for all of the missed tackles today, the blogging would be very lucrative indeed.

Notable: TE Brent Celek not making the play on three straight catchable balls. What is, “What a young and inconsistent offensive team does, Alex?”

Did you enjoy Johnston’s mouth job for the Skins offensive line before their fourth false start penalty, followed by a holding call that prevented a first down? I know I did.

After yet another drop by Celek, McNabb was hit while throwing to set up a pick, and we’re well in the range of this game being over. Utterly maddening, but at least Washington was too paranoid of turnovers to get the killshot touchdown. Hey, there are coaches that are worse than whatever is managing the Skins these days!

Does any announcing team praise players for moments in plays that are wiped out by penalty more than Fox? Perhaps head trauma is contagious.

McNabb finally stopped throwing it to Celek, and the result was three straight throws to the surprisingly emerging Avant, two of which netted 68 yards. Unfortunately, that also led to Avant being on the ground. Man, I hate Redskins games.

Vick on a rollout missed Celek by a mile, and I’m pretty sure that Eagle Fan has had just about enough of Vick by now. McCoy then took over for a screen, run, and first, followed by a huge hole for Weaver to get it to the one. Eldra Buckley is the short yardage back of the week that isn’t Leonard Weaver, and two straight plays get a big fat nothing.

The utterly unsurprising play action to Celek failed, and yes, Eagle Fan, you have seen this movie before; thankfully, a Skins penalty kept this from being fourth down. I want to play poker with Andy Reid. I’m pretty sure I could get a read on him. Or that he’d keep asking the table what hands are the best.

Finally, Green tried Buckley off to the side, and the left side executed for six. An utterly maddening timeout to discuss the two-point conversion call followed, because the team clearly couldn’t think ahead for a wildly important play call, but Shady McCoy refused to let that happen with a fantastic play for the conversion on a shuffle pass.

Just unreal balance there, play of the day. If he doesn’t make it, maybe Green still wins this game, but I’m not sure; it brought the Mo Men Tum in a big way.

Good kickoff coverage continued the wave, and after a ridiculously easy deep out, the defense got a stop. The offense then did everything but win it by taking four minutes off the clock and setting up the chip shot field goal. Notable on the drive were a number of strong runs from McCoy and Weaver, then a fantastic sideline fly to Maclin; there is no doubt in my mind that Donovan’s playing some of his best ball ever right now.

On a third and five, he throws a perfect dart to Maclin that moved the chains, ate three Washington timeouts, and got the ball in close, and he also had the presence of mind to slide on a failed rollout to keep the clock moving. Akers converted to give them the lead, 27-24, with 1:48 left.

After an outstanding kickoff from Akers, and coverage from Moises Fokou, the Skins started at their own 16 with 104 seconds left and no timeouts. Heavy pressure on Campbell forced an incomplete on first, as Cole continued to own his matchup.

Davis was open on a deep slant on second and ten, but couldn’t bring it in. A blitz doesn’t quite get there on third and ten, but a saving tackle forced a fourth down, and the Skins inexplicably seemed to forget that they needed a yard to keep the game alive.

The refs turned a blind eye to a possible roughing the passer call, mostly, one suspects, because they were too offended by the stupidity to give them another chance, and that was that. 27-24, Green.

As with any escape win, especially at home, it’s hard to feel too great about the game, if for no other reason then there was a disturbing amount of things that need to get better, and shouldn’t look like that in late November. Vick, Rocca, Celek, Trotter, and Reid all had big lapses in this game that would have just killed them against a good team.

But a win is a win is a win, Redskin Fan continues to have Big Misery, and they are still in contention for the division and wildcard. There’s also the fact that their QB is playing some of the best football of his life, and so long as that’s true, they’ve got a puncher’s chance, especially if the skill players make plays. Moving on…

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Game Notes

Published: November 26, 2009

comment No Comments

Is it me, or was Detroit Fan never into this game, even when they had a lead and the Packers looked like they were going to sleep through this? I bow to your wisdom, Lion Fan. Of course, you did go to this game in the first place.

In my judgment, there is no way that a black guy was ever involved, in any way, with the Jimmy Football ads for Bud Light.

Packers TE Jeremichal Finley drew a flag from taking a helmet into the chin. There was a recent piece in the Wall Street Journal, I think, where the writer proposed the idea that if there were no helmets, we’d have a much safer game, since defensive players wouldn’t hit with it. Compared to, say, rugby players and Aussie footballers, the danger to concussion is just much greater.

It’s an intriguing idea, even if that level of change in a game that doesn’t seem broken will never happen. Finley then shook off the hit, came back in, and drew another 15 yarder on the very next play for a horse collar. Why do the Lions hate Finley so much?

Why did Fox play the Monty Python theme music as background for the messages from soldiers? Is there a danger of them being squashed by a giant foot?

With 38 seconds left in the third, Aaron Rodgers to James Jones ended all suspense, and we are treated to Joe Buck and Troy Aikmann trying to give a crap about their idiotic Thanksgiving trophy.

That sound you heard was America switching off to porn, and Lions Fan going to get the paint thinner to huff. And once again, the Lions have made America hate this idiotic tradition…

With 2:16 left, the refs overturn a dubious fumble call, basically to end garbage time, or maybe just to stop Lions QB Matthew Stafford from getting hurt. That’s a mercy killing right there, though Calvin Johnson’s fantasy owners didn’t think so.

On a fourth and five from the Lions 36 with 40 seconds left, the Pack take a delay penalty and punt to be sporting. Dammit, Mason Crosby needs to practice his distance field goals, you jerks (the fact that I own Crosby in a league? Immaterial).

Someone tell me again why Detroit plays every Thanksgiving? Or why we can’t schedule them against Oakland every year, and have the game done by interns and recent journalism school grads? It’s not like the ratings would change, and if we just do the stupid thing long enough, it’ll be a tradition. And therefore unstoppable!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Eagles-Giants: Well, That Was Unexpected

Published: November 1, 2009

comment No Comments

> I picked up Leonard Weaver in my cursed fantasy league. Maybe not so cursed? And there’s no wonder why the G-Men fell prey to a fullback run; after six weeks of Line of Scrimmage Punt Return, it must have seemed downright exotic.

> On the first quarter pick from Eli Manning to Asante Samuel, Eli wound up running down the field with his back to the man with the ball. Hard to do, really. Nice to see how you are a football player and all, Eli.

> On third-and-goal from the 17, Donovan McNabb found Brent Celek for the touchdown, and wow, that was huge. Suddenly the Eagles were up 13 (a blocked PAT that, for once, did not come back to haunt them) after just four minutes of game play, and we were singing “Fly, Eagles, Fly” here in the Man Cave.

> I’m not sure I’m prepared to live in a world where an Eagles TE wearing the number 82 makes a play. Welcome to the Verse, Alex Smith.

> On third-and-11 from the Giants’ 38, McNabb scrambled for 14 to convert and put the Eagles in field goal range, and this fan felt a lot better about the world.

The simple fact of the matter is that when McNabb runs effectively, the rest of his game (a.k.a., accuracy in passing) just seems to fall in line, and while the drive didn’t end in a touchdown, it did lead to a 30-yard field goal, and kept the Giants’ defense on the field for an extra five minutes. Helpful.

> It’s nice that Jason Peters is good at hustling and recovering fumbles. Not so good when his man got the sack and fumble in the first place. The prize free agent acquisition continues to underwhelm.

> Just once, I’d like to see an Eagles’ opponent not get huge plays from the TE, or Eli not get big plays by just throwing jump balls to tall wideouts. I want some variety in my rage, please. And just like that, what was a comfortable game became a lot less so, because good teams score before the half, and Manning’s gotten hot…

> And um, so much for that, as DeSean Jackson got ridiculously open for yet another huge touchdown. Wow. DJ’s just freaking awesome right now; six TDs so far this year, all of them over 50 yards. He’s historically dangerous right now.

> Don’t sleep on Ellis Hobbs having two big kick returns in the first half when the game was in doubt. If Hobbs can give the Eagles a plus in the return game, that’s just another weapon, really.

> The most highly paid player in the NFL then responded to his hot streak by sailing a center ball for a stunningly easy pick, and my laundry was in pure Blood in the Water mode. McNabb to Celek, and then Jeremy Maclin pulls off his catch of the year. Fourteen points in less than a minute, and it’s 30-7, Eagles. The four touchdown drives *averaged* less than a minute. I’m speechless.

> Starting the second half, an unforced error on the kickoff return by Domenik Hixon put the game in kill shot territory, but two blocked passes forced a field goal attempt. Something a bit worrisome for Eagles fans is how many of McNabb’s passes are getting batted down this year; it does seem to be a growing trend.

> On fourth-and-four from the Eagles’ 29 with 9:48 left in the third, the G-Men went for it, and Eli threw a nice deep ball that Steve Smith couldn’t control for the de facto turnover.

Fox mouth-jobber Darryl Johnston stood up for Manning there, but maybe, just maybe, throwing into double coverage 25 yards down the field when you have a must-have conversion… isn’t the best possible play by the QB. I know it’s against the law to speak ill of a Manning, but still.

> I’m not sure which team I’m watching; Andy Reid just made a good replay challenge on the sack, fumble, lateral, and defensive touchdown for the Giants. To be fair, it was kind of an obvious call, since the play is a touchdown and all, but still. We take what we can from Andy, and it wound up taking a few minutes and four points off the board. Better than the completely sharp stick in the eye.

> Last week against the Cardinals, Cris Collingsworth made a big deal over how Eli used the word “Omaha” before the snap count. He’s still doing it this week. Do the Giants not pay attention to network broadcasts? You’d think that changing a word wouldn’t be that hard, really.

> I’m not saying the Fox team is in the tank for the Giants. But the fact that New York took time to score to cut the game to 33-17 with a minute left in the fourth seemed to be personally disappointing to the crew.

> Some actual ball control burned the clock for the rest of the quarter, and the third ended with the Eagles up 33-17… and then LeSean McCoy put the game away by going 66 yards to the house.

Absolutely no interest from the Giants in taking McCoy down shy of the goal line, and if you want to call the Giants big dang quitters at this point, I won’t argue the point. Just a shocking 40-17 score right now, and that ended the drama with 14:22 left.

> The Giants aren’t going to have a lot to feel good about after this game, but Hakeem Nicks is a player. Any WR that gets lit up, fumbles, but keeps his head long enough to recover and get seven yards out of it can play on my team. He’s going to be a beast.

> I hate the horse collar penalty on principle—should a defender just give up on a play where he’s behind the ball carrier?—but I especially hate it when it’s a marginal call on a QB. Just put a dress on the player and be done with it, and accept the idea that some players are less equal than others.

> After watching McNabb lose extra yards on the kneel down play last week in Washington, it’s nice to see the team go to Michael Vick for that play. Also good to see Tom Coughlin managing the game to the close, if only for fantasy purposes, really…and for the game to end on one more satisfying sack of Eli.

Good times, really. I laughed, I laughed, and I laughed some more. Let’s have more games like this one, really.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week Four NFL Picks: Gambling Nerdly

Published: September 30, 2009

comment No Comments

When you study math at higher levels, you (a) miss a lot of parties, and (b) became imbued with a weird energy. In my post-college slacker years, I knew some high level math people; they were even more bent then the rest of us, and some in that crowd drank blood for kicks. (On the plus side, if the girl will drink that, she’ll do, um, lots more stuff. On the minus side, you’re not the first to take advantage of the opportunity. Twenty years later, and I’m still with the cringing.)

Anyhoo…our monkey minds really can’t work out infinity or pi. The first is impossible to contemplate, and the latter leads you chanting numbers like a mental patient. And yet we use these concepts on a daily basis and make equations work with them. There is no such thing as a perfect circle, and yet we can imagine them quite easily. It’s all quite curious, and makes for a strange cross-section of people who work in the field; bloodless priests with computers and imagination who would not, on the whole, be comfortable with faith, even as they show it.

Gambling, of course, is all about the math, even when it isn’t. So be careful where you cast your Stone of Nerd, because we’re all nerds about something. The fact that we are willing to throw hard-earned cash after our nerding does not make it less nerdly, it might even make it more so. (We’re still better than most, though. So long as you aren’t going in for die-cast figurines of your fantasy league players, which I’m kind of amazed that no one has brought to market yet. I mean, enough with the bobbleheads. But I digress.)

Last week we broke through nicely to erase the Week One tragedy, and we’re over .500 for the year. So I get to keep my thumbs, which is nice, because I use those guys a lot. Hopefully, we can keep up the momentum and buy back our legs.

And with that collection of unseemliness out of the way…on to the picks!

BALTIMORE at New England (-2)

Two weeks ago when New England played the BMore-esque New Jack Jets, they got punched in the mouth and lost. This week, they get a team with probable advantages at QB and RB, and a solid enough offensive line (especially behind solid and large rookie Michael Oher) to make a pass rush problematic. Joe Flacco has gaudy numbers on the year, and Tom Brady does not. In other words, night is day, day is night, and Bill Belichick’s pact with Satan may be up. It’s been a fun month to be a Patriot Hater.

Can the tottering Empire pull it together? Of course; this Ravens team is not as good on defense as their reputation (see how many yards Philip Rivers put up on them two weeks ago), and Flacco really hasn’t faced an opposing coach that can mess with his mind yet. The Empire also gets Wes Welker back, and that might prove doubly useful, since rookie Julian Edelman could theoretically get Joey Galloway off the field and Tom Brady off the roof. Dreamboat is not taking his regression to the mean well here.

It also doesn’t help that Patriots Fan is clearly the most spoiled fan in the NFL, and gives his team little if any boost. Part of this is a league-wide issue, where wealth has trumped passion in all of the seats that are close enough to make a difference. After the near perfection year, a workmanlike offense just doesn’t do it for them. They just aren’t going to be happy for a while, really.

But it’s more than just an offense that’s a little less than expected; it’s also that the past few drafts have been meager at best, and the margin for error is a lot less than it used to be. Truth be told right now, this Patriots team is a paper tiger, with the added worry that Randy Moss is going back to taking plays off. Against a Ravens team that still has some defensive play-makers (paging Ed Reed), that’s a whole lot of trouble. And in this game, unlike last week, Fred Taylor can’t save them.

Ravens 31, Patriots 17

Tampa Bay at WASHINGTON (-7)

First things first, there is no truth to the rumor that this game will be blacked out regardless of the turnstile count as a matter of preventing a war crime. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, it’s time for the worst going to be .500 team in NFL history to take advantage of the only other franchise in the league with a worse coaching situation (and man alive, this year it’s a competition).

Raheem Morris of the Bucs has gone back and forth so much on his QB, he’s in danger of losing the entire team over it, and the once-fearsome Buc defense have become equal opportunity turnstiles. In Week One, Tony Romo threw for his career high in yards, most of them on embarrassingly easy fly routes. Last week, the Giants turned them into pewter gravel while limiting their offense to Pop Warner numbers.

Both of these teams are so loathed by their fan bases right now that you are better off being the road team. Despite that, I like the Skins here, because at least their offense moves the ball a little, and because in a battle of two coaches that won’t be employed in this capacity for very long, go with the slightly more experienced one. I guess.

Redskins 24, Bucs 16

TENNESSEE at Jacksonville (+3)

The latest must win game for the Titans comes in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars are coming off a surprising gift win against the giving Texans. The road team could have taken the Jets out had they had any fourth quarter offense, but that was not to be, and now they get a Jaguars team that’s starting to define the term home field disadvantage.

I’m looking for a little bounce-back from Kerry Collins in this game, and the Titan defense making anyone but Maurice Jones-Drew beat them. I’m also not expecting David Garrard to get that done, because his wide-outs are pretty weak, and his offensive line fairly porous. Maybe all of those people staying away from the stadium in Jacksonville have a point.

Titans 27, Jaguars 16

OAKLAND at Houston (-9.5)

The Texans have done nothing this year to make you trust them with a big number, and yet here they are with a big number. That’s the magic of the Raiders, who have done nothing to make you think they can compete, let alone cover, and especially JaMarcus Russell, who is only a bad attitude away from being this generation’s Ryan Leaf. (Like the Highlander, there can be only one.)

Let’s cut to the chase here, since without fantasy football, no one could care about this game. The Texans give away long touchdowns like free dinnerware, they just can’t help themselves. If butterfingered Darren McFadden can’t put up 100 yards and a touchdown here, he never will.

If the Raiders can force turnovers and not make their own, they can cover this number. The Texans play to the level of the opponent and put the ball on the ground. Andre Johnson will also disappear from the Asomugha. Houston will more than make due with Steve Slaton and Owen Daniels, but the nice thing about Russell is that he’s so inaccurate, he’s not even a pick magnet. The Raiders will cover.

Texans 27, Oakland 20

Detroit at CHICAGO (-10)

America’s real team, the impossible to dislike Detroit Lions, got their first win in the iPod Age last week against the hilariously inept Redskins. Meanwhile, the Bears were striking a blow for sartorial sanity on the road in Seattle, where poor karma and the magic that is Seneca Wallace gave Jay Cutler the wiggle room he needed to move to a 2-1 start.

This week, the Bears will give their fans a monster chubby with a squash win. Matthew Stafford has his moments, but this Bears’ defense is too complex for a man in his fourth NFL start, and with Kevin Smith sidelined, he’ll be asked to do way too much to keep things close. As low as people were on Cutler in Week One, that’s how high they’ll be after this game. It’s pinball time.

Bears 41, Lions 23

CINCINNATI at Cleveland (+6.5)

The Battle for Ohio is looking very much like a Bengal Stomp, with the high-flying tabbies near the top of the division following their upset over the defending champions. Meanwhile in the town the NFL forgot, and should forget some more, some are calling new head coach Eric Mangini the very worst hire in NFL history. That may seem far-fetched to you, but then again, you probably haven’t seen the Browns play. Let’s hope that God continues to favor you in that way.

I suspect this game will be closer than many anticipate, because the Bengals really aren’t used to prosperity, and I have my doubts about Marvin Lewis keeping their heads on straight. You could easily see them spending all week in practice working on their touchdown celebrations, then failing to show up for the first 2.5 quarters of this game.

The Browns also do have some run-stopping ability, which would take away the best part of the Bengals game right now (that’d be the astonishing career resurrection of Cedric Benson). But try as I might into talking myself into a Browns cover in this game, I can’t, because this offense is just that awful, and the Bengals defense really isn’t that bad. Actually (shh!), they’re pretty good. Especially at getting after the passer.

Bengals 24, Browns 10

Seattle at INDIANAPOLIS (NL)

Look at the bright side, America: the Colts won’t be on prime time, and the Seabags won’t be wearing those hideous lime jerseys. We’re all good in the hood! Indy had a highly impressive win in Arizona following a short week, while Seattle coughed up a late lead at home against the Bears.

To beat the Colts, the theory goes that you need to limit Peyton Manning’s chances and wear out their speed defense with a solid running game. That’s really not Seattle’s game in any venue, least of all a road dome. Normally in this situation, the Bags fold early and often, with lots of hurt feelings and heavy pain for the quarterback and anyone foolish enough to bet them.

The Colts could kick out a letdown game. Dwight Freeney should miss this one, Seattle’s really not a traditional rival, and after running the Miami/Arizona road gamut, you could see them sleeping a little on this NFC West team. But, Indy doesn’t strike me as the type to let complacency kick in, and Manning’s good at keeping the hammer down (and his numbers up) in such situations.

This is one of those lines that will change dramatically depending on the injury reports, but the special joy of this column is that I get to go earlier than most, so I’m going to work under the impression that the bruised ribs of Matt Hasselbeck will take another week off. If he does start, this number is closer, simply because Hasselbeck is accurate enough to take advantage of TE John Carlson, who Wallace murders. But not by enough to cover the spread.

Colts 27, Seahawks 17

NY GIANTS at Kansas City (+10)

Can the Chiefs be any worse than they looked last week in Philadelphia? Probably not, and they do tend to pop up twice a year and give teams real trouble at home…but it’s still very difficult to imagine them holding their own against the NFC East bullies. When your best defender is the unspeakably ancient Tedy Bruschi, and your best offensive plays all involve obvious holding calls, and your rookie coach is that special combination of arrogant and stupid…well, it’s just not a terribly conducive atmosphere for a cover.

Having said that, the Chiefs will move the ball a little this week, since they’ll get back Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel will have another week of shaking the rust off. Unfortunately for them and me, this Giants team is better right now than the Eagles, much more physical, and very prone to taking all of the air out of a bad team’s home stadium.

Giants 24, Chiefs 13

NY Jets at NEW ORLEANS (-7)

September’s Super Bowl in the Bayou, and a classic Defense vs. Offense match-up that, well, isn’t really that. Or at least, just that.

The Jets came very close to stumbling last week against the not quite desperate enough Titans, only some very weak performances by their wide-outs (we don’t expect them to be good, but it’d be nice if they caught passes that hit them in the hands occasionally) kept the media men in the win column.

The Saints broke out their heretofore unknown ground game to grind the Bills into a fine powder while simultaneously causing Drew Brees’s fantasy owners to all gnash their teeth silently, because you just can’t complain about the guy after the start he’s had.

Historically, my tendency is to overrate offensive teams in these kinds of match-ups, because I just think they’ve got more margin for error. But, this game isn’t really like that. The Saints don’t have a terrible defense anymore, they are opportunistic, get after the passer relatively well, and aren’t hopeless in coverage.

The Jets have a very good offensive line and running game, but they aren’t going to be able to run it 45 times against eight and nine defenders in the box, and while I think their receivers (especially Jericho Cotchery and Dustin Keller) are underrated, that still doesn’t mean they are world beaters.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets will potentially be missing Lito Sheppard, which means you’re going to see a lot of yards for the WR who isn’t being covered by Darelle Revis. I also don’t think that Marques Colston is going to suffer the total shutdown that Revis has given to Mssrs.

Moss and Johnson, because Colston really is more like a tight end than a No.1 WR in many sets, and the Jets aren’t going to let home run threat Devery Henderson run free. In other words, we’re looking at one of those classic Too Many Weapons games. Especially if the Jets have to defend a short field.

And that, finally, is the crux of the biscuit. You’d have to be some kind of QB to win a road game in a loud dome against a pinball machine in your fourth career start. Sanchez has many fine qualities; he’s fearless, OK with the decision making, can go deep and has strong accuracy. He’s also not ready to win this game on his own, and he’ll need to be.

Saints 34, Jets 20

BUFFALO at Miami (+2.5)

Hey, did you hear that Terrell Owens is going to avoid controversy this year? He’s decided that since the media is just trying to goad him into saying negative stuff, he’s not going to give them anything.

Nope, that’s the Old Terrible, the one that had to have attention, the one that would, say, become the whole story in a week after his consecutive games streak is ended, and the world became very aware that he’s really not worth the trouble anymore. No, Terrible would never do that!

Look, it’s real simple. Owens isn’t very good anymore. His hands are very suspect, he doesn’t get separation, his wheels are now ordinary, he’s no longer a threat to break a tackle and take one deep. He takes plays off if he doesn’t get the ball early and often, and there’s a reason why he hasn’t been an active player on the winning side in a playoff game since he was a pup.

He’s also, of course, the last thing that this Buffalo team needs, where over-matched game manager dink and dunker Trent Edwards is being asked to be Jim Kelly II, when the best thing the team does is hand off to Fred Jackson. I’d usually like the Dolphins here, but I’m just not seeing Chad Henne being able to do that.

Bills 24, Dolphins 18

DALLAS at Denver (+3)

How many weeks do I have to pick against this Broncos team? Last week in Oakland, they continued to drain my bank account and sanity with a ball control win over a Raiders team that would be better off if someone poisoned JaMarcus Russel’s feed bag. And yet the Raiders would have still been in the damn game if Darren McFreaking Fadden could, um, hold on to the damn ball. Maddening.

To damn the Broncos with the faintest of praise, they do seem to have a less sieve-like defense than expected. A healthy Champ Bailey and an angry Brian Dawkins will get you that, and Elvis Dumeril has risen from the dead to give them one more speed rusher than I was counting on. But against a Cowboys team that’s good at rushing the ball before the weather grows cold, and with a QB-TE combo that will exploit Dawkins et al, that ends. Dammit.

Dallas is fighting off the short week, altitude, and Tony Romo’s first episode of Early Season Suck. But there’s a reason why the man has good numbers and the mistaken belief that he’s a star, and that’s because he pads his numbers against crud teams. Despite the 3-0 start, that’s Denver. Finally.

Cowboys 27, Broncos 13

St. Louis at SAN FRANCISCO (-10)

The Niners were just one play, one very long odds play, from a 3-0 start and their division by the throat. Now, they are just a game ahead of the old guard Cards and Hawks on the sub .500 suck line, and hopefully, nice and pissed off about it.

But they are young, and might be looking past the Rams. You could hardly blame them, really. St. Louis hasn’t been a threat to anyone but the people who draft Stephen Jackson in their fantasy league for years now. If there is a division rivalry here, it’s escaped the notice of the rest of the league.

St. Louis comes into this game with a QB with a pulse, since Marc Bulger has quite predictably hit the med tent. Kyle Boller might do OK here, the Niners did show secondary weakness last week. But the Ram WRs are not as good as the Minnesota Vikings. Or, possibly, the Northeast Vikings, who are my high school team.

Shaun Hill will have to do more this week, as Frank Gore is down and Glen Coffee is weak tea at best; there’s nothing here, beyond having the role against a bad team at home, that makes me think he’s worth of attention. Instead, count on a nice little Vengeance Game for Isaac Bruce, and the continued career rehabilitation of Vernon Davis, who is the tight end on the Cedric Benson All Salvage Fantasy Team.

Niners 27, Rams 16

SAN DIEGO at Pittsburgh (-6.5)

One of those classic Need Games between two teams that haven’t looked as good as they should. The Chargers partied hearty as soon as Chad Pennington was hurt, racking up a win that didn’t look anything like the final score. The Steelers lost in their home away from home to the Bengals, in a game with multiple fourth down conversions.

The defending champs have other worries. There are conflicting reports that youngsters Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall are either coach killers or just performance impaired. The offensive line gets exposed by their uncompromising QB, and the defense can’t be special with Troy Polamalu in civvies. But sorry, Steelers Fan… I still like your team this week.

Unless LaDanian Tomlinson’s menses clears up to 100 percent power, the Chargers won’t have a credible internal running game, or a RB that can pick up a blitzer. (That is the reason, fantasy honk, why Darren Sproles will never fulfill your Tiki Barberish dreams.)

Pitt lost last week to a balanced Cincy attack with Cedric Benson doing real damage. If Philip Rivers has to throw it 40-plus times—and he will—the Steelers will have a half dozen strongly negative plays, despite potentially scary match-ups against the emerging Vincent Jackson and the strangely underused Antonio Gates.

They’ll also have a win. But not a cover.

(Oh, and if you are still on the fence about this pick, just chant the following mantra. Norv… Norv… Norv… He makes the bad feelings go away. Provided, of course, you are not a Charger Fan.)

Steelers 24, Chargers 20

GREEN BAY at Minnesota (-3.5)

Farvageddon I in the Twin Cities, with the sky-high Vikings coming off their double reverse theft game (yes, they got lucky with the last second touchdown, but the Niners can’t expect to score on a field goal block very often, either) in a battle for the top spot in the NFC North. The Pack comes in with a wear-out win over the terrible Rams, and have real issues on the offensive line, where they have been doing so little as to start bringing in new bodies off the street.

The Vikings look to be the class of the division so far, with a growing stable of weapons (Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Schiancoe and, oh yeah, Adrian Peterson) making everything look purple.

And yet, I have unease about this team beyond His Favreness. The running defense might not be as good as advertised; Frank Gore looked Ok against them before he got hurt. Brad Childress hasn’t gotten any better at this whole coaching thing. They might be scary in special teams with Harvin, but they won’t get a home run from that every week, and they are also prone to lapses.

Finally, there’s this. Karma dictates that Favre suffer for the massive heel turn he’s taking here. I’m thinking we’re going to see a few very lucky plays go the way of the road team, along with some ref calls.

Packers 31, Vikings 21

Last week: 11-5

Year to date: 24-23-1

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Week 3 NFL Picks: Quitting Time

Published: September 24, 2009

comment No Comments

By this point in the NFL season, despite all evidence to the contrary, we don’t really know who is going to make the playoffs. Injuries and ill luck can still take down even the strongest team, and it’s rare that teams go wire to wire.

There are some 2-0 teams that aren’t going to the playoffs (I’m looking at you, Denver), and there very well may be an 0-2 team that qualifies (Tennessee might be the best of that lot).

But we are very, very aware of who the terrible teams are.

Kansas City, St. Louis, Cleveland and perhaps Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are a game away from all hope being extinguished, but realistically, there’s no odds that you could give me that would make me take the under bet of losses for that group at 50.

And when you look at the historic numbers, no team comes back from an 0-3 hole, let alone teams that have looked as bad as they have.

Finally, now that Detroit has shown us all what’s possible with last year’s imperfection, maybe we even have someone willing to mail it in for the entire year.

A man can dream. And Lions fans can feel marginalized even in their suffering, since they won’t even have The Time Without Any Wins At All to themselves.

Washington at DETROIT (+6)

I missed this on Sunday, but it should be noted that Washington coach and super-genius Jim Zorn chose to go for it on fourth down deep in Rams territory while holding a 9-7 lead last week, only to fail and have his team get a defensive stop to secure the win.

It was such a bad decision that even the paid mouth jobbers (in the guise of franchise legend and voice Sonny Jurgenson) threw the team under the bus, much in the same way that Tony Dorsett did to Tony Romo in Dallas.

You’ve got a special franchise when wins cause this much anguish.

The team is going to waste a good defense with the least explosive offense outside of Cleveland. And Skins Fan? That defense won’t be very good for very long, because Albert Haynesworth can’t stay healthy and will soon realize that he’s gonna get paid even if he doesn’t try super hard.

And the world will little note nor long remember who tried and who didn’t for a fourth-place team.

Maybe your next coach will be better, if only because your crazy shrunken Scientologist owner has to give up eventually and realize that someone else has to be better at this than he is.

Then again, maybe I’m just the Evil Lord Xenu. It’s amazing how often you run into me, when you are Daniel Snyder.

For the Lions, they spent another week being praised like Special Olympians for taking a lead and sacking His Favreness, but eventually the Vikings defense created turnovers and Adrian Peterson created touchdowns.

(I have one roto league in which I’m 2-0, mostly because I had the keen insight to take AP with the first pick. Auctions, people. Auctions.)

I think this is the week that Calvin Johnson’s growing rapport with Matthew Stafford brings multiple touchdowns, and that Jason Campbell really shows how much the Skins want a quarterback controversy to go with the rest of their circus.

Besides, at some point, Detroit’s got to win a game. Maybe not more than one, but it’s a start.

Lions 24, Redskins 16

GREEN BAY (+7) at St. Louis

If He Who Shall Not Be Ignored was still in Wisconsin and starting, do you think there would be a QB controversy by now?

The team would still have the promising Aaron Rodgers on the bench, would still have missed the playoffs last year due to a surprisingly pliant defense and subpar offensive line, and would still be dealing with too many turnovers to overcome.

The only difference now is that since Rodgers has had the good sense to provide fantasy football value and the world has slowly—very slowly—started to think about football beyond intelligent design deus ex machina moments of Grit, Heart, Determination, and Being A Winner.

So there’s no hue and cry to try someone else behind center (and, well, also they don’t really have a No. 2 that excites anyone).

Then again, it’d help if Rodgers himself would start doing more to win games late, especially against historically terrible teams like the Bengals. Last week’s loss really wasn’t the man’s fault, but it still sent millions of suicide pool pickers to the sidelines in hatred. And being quarterback means you get inordinate blame and credit.

Rodgers would probably be a better field general if he weren’t spry. Just as sports highlight shows have hurt basketball by making everyone disdain the mid-range game, quarterbacks are all now trying for their Big Ben/Eli Manning moment of prolonging the play and Being The Superhero.

For a guy like Rodgers, who combines some good athleticism with an injury history, this way lies madness—especially since the Packers wideouts get open more by route and size than speed and leaping ability.

All of that, by the way, won’t matter a fig in St. Louis, where the Rams are 0-2 after two DOA road “efforts,” and QB Marc Bulger has to look at increasingly dusty playing cards to find a year when he wasn’t utterly horrible.

I know his offensive linemen are turnstiles, his wideouts are the worst in the league, and his defense rarely gives him a short field, but the fish stinks from the head down. And Bulger’s interest in grabbing some ground against any kind of pass rush is unmatched in the NFL since Bobby Hoying. Plus he has zero athleticism to avoid the rush.

Stephen Jackson will have numbers against a Packers team that got exposed by the immortal Cedric Benson at home, but that will only matter for a little while.

Packers 31, Rams 20

SAN FRANCISCO at Minnesota (-7)

Can the Niners seize control of their division with an underdog win in Minnesota against the Love Boaters? I’m going to give them the full throated FTT Kiss Of Gambling Death by getting away from my losing disrespect.

They just might be the best team in the NFC West, and one more win this week will get them to Intriguing Cinderella status.

And if they ever manage to get Michael Crabtree signed, they’d be downright dangerous in attracting stupid money to their cause, not that I’m really expecting anything on that front. I suspect at this point that Coach Mike Singletary wants Crabtree around just to yell at him.

These are two surprisingly similar teams. Both have struggled to fill the QB position, and finally thrown up their hands and gone for a journeyman that needs to be reined into a short passing game to avoid crippling mistakes.

They both depend on their star running back in a non-committee situation for nearly all positive value over the mean.

They both have head coaches that, despite reasonable won-loss records, people feel unsure about, for fairly good reasons (Tarvaris Jackson, Casual Nudity, and Press Conference Buffoonery).

And they both have to feel good about their defenses after two weeks of effective play. Niners LB Patrick Willis is the best player at his position that not enough people know about, and the Williams Wall remains the source of good fun in the land of a thousand lakes and 45 billion mosquitoes.

In most weeks, the difference between Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore, along with the home dome advantage, would be enough. But not in September, and not in a game where the defense is going to make His Favreness throw the ball more than five yards at a time.

This week is when the Sage Rosenfels whispers start.

Niners 24, Vikings 17

Atlanta at NEW ENGLAND (-4)

Has the window closed on the Patriot Empire? Last week’s de-pantsing at the hands of the new bully Jets had all of the feel of An Ending, with Dreamboat Brady reduced to back foot hot read desperation to spent fourth receivers. (Seriously, Patriot Fan is pining for the cut Greg Lewis, rather than the fossilized Joey Galloway, which is just a Sammich of Sadness on every level.)

And the ineffective committee running attack is cutting no ice. Remember that if not for a gift collapse from the Bills, the Patriots could be a first class fire drill right now, with massive What’s Wrong media jobs and the collective Woe Is Us whine job that only Massholes can really express. (That’s because they are so, so literate.)

Dreamboat has been mostly tentative and terrorized, and the defense contains much more than they crush. It is, right now, a finesse team that’s just a hair off, a fine sports car with a nasty engine clank.

They’ll be fine in time, assuming health and Belichick’s continued pact with Satan, but right now, things aren’t right.

This week, they get the homecoming Matt Ryan, the rampaging Tony Gonzalez, a physical Michael Turner and the rest of the 2-0 Falcons that bear a reasonable resemblance to those mean green people that made last week so unpleasant.

The difference, of course, is that the game is at home, and the Falcons aren’t bringing anywhere near the kind of defensive wood that New York does.

This would point us in the direction of Shootout, but I’m not seeing the teams’ offensive lines being able to keep their QB clean long enough for that to happen.

If Patriots coach Bill Belichick wants to start seeming like a genius again, he’d start building an identity around his running game, but this week, he won’t need it.

I’m going with the home team Patriots, but I’d really like to be wrong. The idea of a sub .500 year for Belichick and a massive crisis of faith in Masshole Nation is just fantastic, but I just don’t think the Falcons have it in them to win a nice game against a near desperate home club with pedigree.

Plus, well, God just doesn’t love us that much.

Prove me wrong, Lord and Dirty Birds…

Patriots 26, Falcons 20

TENNESSEE at New York Jets (-3)

Last call time for last year’s top seed in the AFC, and they get a road game against the new squash artists.

Are the Jets ready for front-runner status and full-throated media attention? No, and here’s why.

In the first two weeks, the team has gone against teams with clear No. 1 receivers, and Darrelle Revis (note previous picks columns for my manlove for the man; he’s the new Nnamdi Asomugha, only better, because I don’t have to spell-check his name) has made Andre Johnson and Randy Moss completely invisible, and Matt Schaub and Tom Brady completely irrelevant.

This week, who does Revis shadow? Justin Gage or Kenny Britt, with Kerry Collins under center facing a blitz-happy defense. It’s like having a pair of aces against low hole cards, and it’s not as if Collins has never faced a blitz before.

The Jets are going to get cracked here.

The Titans will run the ball even when it doesn’t work, because this game for them will be all about avoiding the Collins TAInt.

Eventually, even against a defense with Kris Jenkins, that will work, because Chris Johnson might be the best home run hitter in the business right now. And even LenDale White is right when you give it to him 15 to 20 times a game.

Teams don’t go to the penthouse this quickly, and 13 win teams don’t fall apart this fast. And finally, there’s that whole Need vs. Want thing going on here, with the road team heavily on the side of Need.

Bet the under on points, and the over on punts.

Titans 16, Jets 13

Kansas City at PHILADELPHIA (NL)

Successful head coaches in the NFL are, on the whole, productively stubborn managers. They push their men to play in a certain way, to make certain sacrifices, and to maintain a certain standard.

The downside of this is that they can lack a certain flexibility. When Andy Reid is missing QB Donovan McNabb, very little is scaled back or not tried; there is a system, dammit, and the quarterback will conform to it.

It doesn’t matter that the system takes years of in-game action to master, or that very few people on the planet have McNabb’s talent. Andy will simply coach harder, and the quarterback will do the job.

In the long run, this is a good thing. It means that the Eagles remain dangerous to opponents even with replacement-level talent, and that they won’t hold on to McNabb for a return of the glory years when he’s in his late 30s.

They’ve also won more than you’d expect them to when Number Five is unavailable, and they’ve been able to move backup quarterbacks for value.

But in the short run, it is maddening, especially if you have an interest in keeping a speed defense off the freaking field. (It’s also the same reason why the man refuses to call running plays as something more than an amusing side project.)

This week against Kansas City, Kevin Kolb will chuck it 40-plus times despite rampant Wildcattery from Michael Vick and others. The Eagles will fail to exercise proper ball security, keeping the road team in the game well into the second half.

And then the defense will make a play or two, a quick strike will put the game into the comfortable zone, and the stadium will exhale, and try to forget that the whole scary drama could have been avoided with a simpler game plan, and a more physical defense.

(Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs are one of the six worst teams in football, and liable to lose this game on their own turnovers.)

Eagles 34, Chiefs 17

NY GIANTS (-7) at Tampa Bay

Eli Manning’s breakout month continues, as the quietly terrible Bucs pass defense (when Trent Edwards and the Bills rack up yards, you are officially terrible) play host to the emerging Mario Manningham/Steve Smith combo that are making Giants Fan forget that Tumor guy and the idiot jailbird that shot himself.

If you drafted Brandon Jacobs in your roto league, you can feel good about your dreams of a 20-TD year, because the man’s going to have opportunities, at least until the weather turns windy and Eli’s noodle arm fails to get it done.

You’d think that for the money they are paying him, the man could actually throw the ball with velocity.

Tampa’s setting up to have one of those terrible teams that fantasy players love, since the defense gives up pinball numbers and the offense will play against prevent defenses for two quarters a game on the average.

Get your Aaron Brooks-esque juice from Byron Leftwich while you can, people, because once it becomes obvious to the management that 10-plus losses are coming their way, there’s going to be a rush to judgment on rookie first-round QB Josh Freeman, who will be worse than Leftwich in the short run, and maybe even the long.

Good thing the team is going retro with their jerseys this year, just to make sure the carpet matches the drapes.

Giants 34, Bucs 23

Cleveland at BALTIMORE (-13.5)

I keep forgetting to play “Eliminator” or “Suicide” pools, so I’ll make the retroactive picks of Week One, New England (phew!) and Week Two, Washington (I’m so daring!). Which means that you should totally trust me and the Ravens in this matchup, which actually has elements of worry about it.

After all, Cleveland is trying to avoid the 0-3 death sentence, Baltimore is coming off a tight West Coast win, and the team’s parentage and ancestry means that there’s enough hate in the stands to spill over onto the field.

But all of that is overthinking the following, incontrovertible point: Brady Quinn is going to play quarterback for a road team that’s facing the Baltimore defense, and second year QB Joe Flacco is showing signs of breakout.

Sometimes, it’s just that easy, and if there were good odds on the Raven defense outscoring the Cleveland offense this week, I’d think about that bet. Hard.

Ravens 27, Browns 6

Jacksonville at HOUSTON (-4)

The yo-yo Texans get the big home number and love against the reeling Jaguars, who are one more loss away from making all of the Maurice Jones-Drew owners tear something out of their scalp.

The Jaguars have been dumb all over and a little ugly on the side, and looking very similar to their cross-state Buccaneer brethren as the source of cheap QB numbers from a chuck and duck guy who will play from behind from now until January.

That’s hard to do, considering that the Jag WR corps is the very late model Torry Holt, a hyphenated injury-prone wonder in Mike Sims-Walker, a TE who was a drop machine last year (Marcedes Lewis) and backup WRs who are so meh that they actually mourned the loss of Troy Williamson last week. Yes, that Troy Williamson.

The Texans are starting to get antsy about their own feature back, last year’s rookie flash Steve Slaton. Double S put on some pounds in the offseason to be better in the red zone, and as a result, he’s been worse in every other zone this year.

Moronic fantasy honks are wondering if now is the time to roster vulture/goal line/made of balsa wood back up Chris Brown. It’s not and he ain’t, Slaton rewards your patience this week. Assuming, of course, that the Texans don’t just want to pad Matt Schaub, Owen Daniels, and Andrew Johnson’s numbers instead.

Texans 38, Jaguars 17

CHICAGO (-3) at Seattle

One of those lines that I hate to make a pick on, because the spread should change all the way up to game time depending on the status of Seattle starting QB Matt Hasselbeck.

With the Hass, the home team has the ability to stretch the field (especially to TE John Carlson), Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh have an extra incentive to run, and the Bears can’t stack the box against the meager offering that is the ‘Hawk ground game.

With Seneca Wallace in there, all of the receivers take a hit, the box will be jammed like the front row of a Killers concert (this is why I listen to new music, really; to be able to pass with the kids on left field allusions), and the home team will try to win via the practical magic known as Game Management.

Not exactly a riveting strategy, especially for a team with a very good base defense and an emerging QB in Jay Cutler.

If the Hass is able to shrug off the rib pain and go, expect a quarter or two of inspired home team play. The Hawks’ home bully/road speedbump tendency is well pronounced.

But I think this is the week that Matt Forte reminds the world that he’s actually really good, and the Bears’ defense shows they can put a QB—even a mobile one like Seneca Wallace—on the ground without Brian Urlacher on the field.

There’s also some chance for Gregg Olsen to do some damage here, as the Seabags can forget about the TE, and Bears rookie WR Johnny Knox has been doing enough to make teams adjust their top level coverage.

Bears 27, Seahawks 20

NEW ORLEANS (-6.5) at Buffalo

The league’s premier pinball machine comes to western New York, where the no-huddle Bills promise to make this a game where you can not stop thinking about betting the over.

But the hidden thing about this Saints team, and the reason why I think they are more than a September fad, is that they have a handful of defensive veterans (Darren Sharper chief among them) who are prone to taking advantage of the opponent’s mistakes.

And when you play from ahead as much as the Saints will this year, mistakes will be made. This isn’t to say that that the Saint defense is actually very good; it’s not and won’t be, seemingly, in my lifetime, especially since the offense isn’t exactly dominating time of possession. But it will be good enough.

As for the Bills, I suppose you can say that they are just a collapse away from being a 2-0 team and leading their division. But they are a mediocre mix of talent at best, Terrible Owens really isn’t all that special any more, and the Saints are just way too damned good for Trent Edwards to keep up with.

Saints 31, Bills 20

PITTSBURGH (+4) at Cincinnati

Another bad team with a story as to why they aren’t undefeated, the Bengals rode huge days from Cedric Benson and Antwan Odom to a shocking win last week in Green Bay, while the Steelers were blowing a highly winnable road game in Chicago with faulty field-goal kicking.

The Bengals defense could be better than usual, the McBeams do miss safety Troy Polamalu, and Willie Parker might remain the most overrated player in the NFL.

But, um, these are the Bengals going against the defending Super Bowl champions, in a game that they want. I’m looking for a big effort from the defense, Big Ben to make some plays while evading the rush, and Carson Palmer to continue to be the least-known liability in the league.

Steelers 24, Bengals 17

Denver at OAKLAND (-2)

Will Kyle Orton ever know defeat as the starting quarterback for the Broncos?

After two games, his winning percentage puts people like Jay Cutler and John Elway to shame. That the man is getting this little respect from the fans and gambling public makes this line a national outrage.

Come out, come out, everyone who wanted to tell me how he’d be better than Cutler for fantasy purposes! Your man needs your support!

As for the home team, they won last week on penalties and punts in Kansas City, with the offense finally punching it through on a Darren McFadden run late.

The effort led Chief Fan to want to run their new coach out on a rail, and have him take the shiny new QB—you know, the one that caused all of the trouble in Denver in the first place—with him. Such a fantastic division, this.

I hate to put anything at risk with Special Olympian JaMarcus Russell at the helm, and the Broncos have spent most of the last decade killing the Raiders, especially on the road.

Well, things have changed without Mike Shanahan at the helm, and J-Russ is going to have big home/road splits. At home, he’s just bad, and just bad is going to be enough here.

Raiders 17, Broncos 14

Miami at SAN DIEGO (-6)

Two teams coming off heartbreaking losses. The Chargers got stuffed on a Special Norv Moment, with Darren Sproles getting the rock in a power dive formation while Ray Lewis screamed like a man getting away with murder. (I kill me!)

The home team has serious issues with the health of the offensive line and LaDainian Tomlinson making the team one dimensional on offense, and a defense that hasn’t been dynamic at all yet.

The Dolphins are in an 0-2 hole with an offense that seems incapable of making a big play, with top WR Ted Ginn Jr. in particular looking helpless.

The number is too large for comfort for a Turner coached team, since they can crap the bed at any time. But I like the home team to have a breakout day against a club with a short week and no playmakers.

I also like Tomlinson’s chances of giving a raised middle finger to his haters, even if it’s only in the short run, because that loss against the Colts is one of those games that cause a team to doubt their coach. With good reason.

(And if the Fish can’t stop Peyton Manning at home with a ridiculously rested defense, why should they do any better against the rested Charger weapons on the road?)

Chargers 34, Dolphins 13

Indianapolis at ARIZONA (-2.5)

The second straight trip under the lights for the Houdini Colts, who get the similarly QB dependent Cards in a game where the announcers will heap enough praise on the signal callers to keep them buffed and polished until November.

Arizona rode pinpoint passing from Kurt Warner and an Antrel Rolle field kick block and touchdown to a win in Jacksonville, while the Colts escaped Miami with their time of no possession win on MNF.

This game lines up perfectly for the Warners; it’s at home, against a defense that isn’t very good, with the benefit of the road team getting the short week. Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston looked much healthier, and even the running game doesn’t look terrible.

I like the team from Tempe here.

Cardinals 26, Colts 21

Carolina at DALLAS (-9)

Now, here’s the home opening opponent the Cowboys really wanted; a team with a much more suspect quarterback, an offensive line that doesn’t stand out, and a fresh new broadcasting crew to fellate Jerruh for his Jerruhsoleum.

The Panthers can win this game. They will be desperate to save their season from an 0-3 hole, and Steve Smith by his own damn self is a great deal of trouble.

Marion Barber is likely to stay out, leading to overpassing and the return of Evil Tony Romo. We could see a first-class turnover fest.

But I think Romo Ono will shake off last week’s nightmare, and that the Carolina catastrophe won’t end until someone puts a stake into Jake Delhomme’s chest. Paging A.J. van Helsing…

Cowboys 27, Panthers 16

Last week: 8-7-1
Year to date: 13-18-1

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Items by

Philadelphia Eagles—Washington Redskins Notes

Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Game Notes

Top 11 Week 8 NFL Ad Questions

Eagles-Giants: Well, That Was Unexpected

Week Four NFL Picks: Gambling Nerdly

Week 3 NFL Picks: Quitting Time

NFL Sport Channel Latest