College QBs and Future NFL Drafts

With the 37th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the St. Louis Rams select Matt Barkley. Quarterback. University of Southern California.

It sounds like science fiction, doesn’t it; that the potential top quarterback in the draft in four years would not be selected until the second round?

Perhaps it is a bit far-fetched.

What happens, though, if all the first-round quarterbacks selected in this year’s draft—Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman—go belly-up in 2009 or the following year or the year after that and prove an unwise investment?

And let’s say (just for the sake of argument) that quarterbacks Nate Davis (Ball State) and Curtis Painter (Purdue), drafted this year in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively, outstrip all expectations and develop into NFL stars for the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts?

Would this set of circumstances compel NFL teams to retool their high-risk, high-reward approach to drafting quarterbacks in the first round.

Probably not.

After all, we’re not talking about an ordinary business enterprise. We’re talking about the NFL, where cost-benefit analysis is not exactly a thriving practice.

Take the 1999 draft when five quarterbacks were selected in the first 12 picks. Only Daunte Culpepper and Donovan McNabb carved out legitimate careers. The latter is arguably a Hall of Famer and they are still sidestepping blitzes and pitching footballs a decade later.

The other three (Tim Couch, Akili Smith and Cade McNown) are regarded as nothing more than bad punchlines.

All five draftees looked promising. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been drafted in the first round, would they?

Couch, a University of Kentucky alum whom the Cleveland Browns selected first overall, made his first start in the second game of his rookie season. He enjoyed a measure of success during his career, culminating in 2002 when he threw for 2,842 yards and 18 touchdowns and led the Browns to a playoff berth. Injuries, though, curtailed his career.

The Cincinnati Bengals had far less luck with Smith, the third overall pick in the draft. His considerable athleticism was nullified by his inability to grasp the complexities of the Bengals’ offense. He started 17 games before he was granted a release.

McNown was selected by the Chicago Bears with the 12th overall pick of the draft. He started 15 games over two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. McNown’s ineffectiveness coupled with his susceptibility to injury, forced the Bears to jettison him in 2002.

Culpepper seized the opportunity to start in his second year compiling 3,937 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and only 16 interceptions. He helped lead the Vikings to an 11-5 record and was named to the Pro Bowl.

Over the course of the next two seasons, Culpepper struggled mightily—as did the Vikings. He threw 32 touchdowns against 36 interceptions in 2001 and 2002, but Minnesota hung tough with their former first-round draft choice.

In 2003 and 2004, Culpepper rewarded the Vikings’ patience with Pro Bowl years, amassing 8,196 yards, 64 touchdowns and just 22 interceptions.

McNabb has enjoyed the luxury of plying his wares for a successful franchise. As a result, he’s thrown for more than 29,000 yards and 194 touchdowns.

Who’s to say that if Couch, Smith or McNown played under similar circumstances, they too wouldn’t have evolved into solid quarterbacks?

In addition to Couch, Smith and McNown, you can ask Michael Vick, Rex Grossman, Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer, David Carr and Alex Smith about the vagaries of fate that separate stardom and mediocrity. 

Drafting a quarterback is a weird science, at best.

A combination of injuries, an inability to read pro coverage schemes, a lack of talent surrounding them, and a host of other unforeseen factors can transform the potential savior of a franchise overnight into damaged goods.

At any rate, it’s much riskier than drafting a blue-chip linebacker, or a defensive/offensive lineman.

One anecdote that proves drafting quarterbacks is a crap-shoot comes by way of Bill Walsh, who coached Hall of Fame QBs Joe Montana and Steve Young.

When asked by reporters whether he favored Peyton Manning or Leaf in the 1998 draft, he responded that he would pass on both of them and take a chance on Brian Griese in the second round.

So much for the sophisticated NFL information pipeline.

It makes one suspect that throwing darts or rolling the dice is just as effective in picking NFL-worthy quarterbacks. It doesn’t hurt to mutter a silent prayer, either.

 

 

 

Where Will Brett Favre Be Playing In 2010?

I’m not going there.

Which is to say, I’m not going to waste my time or yours inquiring into the motives that are apparently compelling Brett Favre to return to the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings for another go-around on the gridiron.

It’s already been done, to death.

I googled “Brett Favre” on my laptop early Wednesday evening and up popped 4,341 news entries.

The “Brett Favre Saga” has become a cottage industry almost overnight.

I say that an NFL legend like Favre has earned the right to live his life, or play out his career, as he chooses. If he feels that he has some unfinished business to attend to, so be it.

I’m much more concerned about where Favre intends to play in 2010.

How about the Oakland Raiders?

JaMarcus Russell has yet to establish himself as a bona fide starter and Jeff Garcia is getting older.

The Denver Broncos?

Kyle Orton may or not fill the shoes of the dearly departed Jay Cutler.

The San Francisco 49’ers?

Neither Shaun Hill or Alex Smith seem poised for a breakout year.

The St. Louis Rams?

Marc Bulger or Kyle Boller?

Please.

The Seattle Seahawks?

Matt Hasslebeck is aging fast.

The Washington Redskins?

Jason Campbell will have to post MVP-worthy numbers to remain in D.C. for another year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

Byron Leftwich, Brian Griese, Luke McCown, and Josh Johnson aren’t likely to turn heads.

You see, the field is wide open for Favre in 2010. He won’t be picky.

The only proviso is that the team he plays for must have the Green Bay Packers on their schedule for 2010. And, it wouldn’t hurt if his prospective employer’s brain trust is as clueless as that of the Minnesota Vikings.

There it is, I’m finished.

At this time, I’m retired and have no intention of returning to this subject ever again.

Percy Harvin: A Game-Changer Or a Shape-Shifter?

When all was said and done, the Minnesota Vikings opted for the dazzle of a wideout with their first pick of the NFL Draft rather than the sturdy presence of an offensive tackle or a swift defender to man the secondary.

But will their pick be a game-changer or shape-shifter?

This is the question that haunts the Vikings after their selection of University of Florida standout Percy Harvin, whom they took with the 22nd pick. 

The Vikings made a bold statement when they said they believe that Harvin’s character issues are behind him, and they upheld their vow to select the best player available when it came their turn to draft.

Harvin’s résumé includes a litany of of transgressions dating back to high school. He bumped an official during a football game in his senior year and received a two-game suspension. He was involved in a fight during a basketball game later in the year. And to top it all off, Harvin tested positive for marijuana during a drug screening at the NFL Combine in February.

Harvin’s on and off-field troubles earned him a scarlet letter of sorts. A Pro Football Weekly poll of NFL executives had the embattled Gator at the top of the list of this year’s riskiest draft prospects.

The Vikings’ brain trust also compiled a list of some four-score draft prospects who they wouldn’t draft due to character or attitude issues. They placed red dots beside their names. Obviously, Harvin didn’t make the final cut for that dubious distinction.

The fact is that, like Reggie Bush, Harvin possesses extraordinary game-breaking abilities. That’s something, despite Harvin’s occasional fits of fury and errors in judgment, the Vikings believed that they just couldn’t afford to pass up.

During his three-year collegiate career, Harvin caught 133 passes for 1929 yards and 13 touchdowns. He rushed for 1851 yards and 19 touchdowns. He was a prime mover in the Gators’ two National Championships.

In 2008, Harvin touched the ball only 110 times and produced 17 touchdowns and 1,303 yards receiving and rushing. He capped his career with 170 all-purpose yards and one touchdown in the FedEx BCS National Championship Game against Oklahoma.

Yet his big-game abilities won’t silence his critics, who are naturally wondering why the Vikings, who have had so many off-field issues with their players, would risk a first-round flyer on a player like Harvin?

Coach Brad Childress, as much as he’s detested by Vikings fans, did his part to ensure that the Vikings were making  the right move. He visited Harvin last week and, following a heart-to-heart, was satisfied that the Gator has learned from his mistakes.

This doesn’t amount to a clean bill of health by any means.

University of Florida coach Urban Meyer voiced the hope that Harvin would be drafted by a team with a solid coaching staff. By this, he seems to imply coaches who can instill a solid work ethic and discipline in players.

Rick Spielman, the Vikings’ Vice President of Player Personnel, stated that the Vikings have a strong locker room which will serve as a source of support for Harvin if they sense he is leaving the straight and narrow.

With these safeguards in place, it’s up to Harvin to control his own demons.

Whichever way it goes, the Vikings’ decision will be viewed as a no-brainer, depending on your perspective.

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