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NFL Football Players Draft Injuries Rookies Season SuperbowlPublished: September 30, 2009
It was a good week of redemption for me when it comes to selecting sleepers, with two of the three picks having solid days (click here to read the column):
This week sleepers become a little bit more critical, with bye weeks playing a role for the first time in the season and injuries beginning to mount. Let’s take a look at a few gambles that may be worth taking depending on your format:
Kerry Collins – Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville
Collins had actually been playing fairly well over the first two weeks of the season, throwing for 460 yards and 3 TD, while being intercepted twice. That was before he ran into the New York Jets’ defense, which stymied him down the stretch to the tune of 13 consecutive incomplete passes.
He was held to 170 yards and picked off twice, but with the way that defense has been playing it really is nothing to be ashamed of.
This week he has a chance to get healthy, taking on the defense that has allowed the most passing yards per game in the early going (281.7). Yes, they have faced three potent QBs in Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, and Matt Schaub, but they still have clearly been porous.
It’s unlikely to be a shootout, which could hurt his numbers slightly with Chris Johnson getting a chance to do some damage, but if you are in a two-quarterback league and are in need of a fill-in he seems poised for a solid game.
Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 10.7 percent of ESPN Leagues
Nate Burleson – Seattle Seahawks vs. Indianapolis
You have to figure that the Seahawks are going to have to take to the air a bit more in order to keep up with the Colts’ offense. Last week with Seneca Wallace at the helm, Burleson exploded for 9 catches and 109 yards, bringing him to 20 catches on the young season.
It doesn’t seem to matter whom the quarterback is (Wallace or Matt Hasselbeck), he has stepped up his game and is leading the way for Seattle receivers despite the presence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh. There is no reason to think that is going to change and another solid game could easily be in store for him again.
Owned in 55 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 36.6 percent of ESPN Leagues
Glen Coffee – San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis
This one is a no-brainer, isn’t it? Frank Gore is out of action and they are playing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league (255.3 yards per game on the ground). Is it really worth saying anything else?
Owned in 28 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 29.5 percent of ESPN Leagues
How do you think these players are going to perform? Are there any other sleepers you are eyeing?
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Published: September 28, 2009
Matt Forte and Steve Slaton continue to disappoint owners. Maurice Jones-Drew was the offensive player of the week. Terrell Owens was held without a catch. Let’s look at these stories and all the rest from yesterday’s games:
Detroit 19, Washington 14
What do you think was the biggest story coming out of yesterday’s games? Who was the brightest star? Who was the biggest disappointment?
This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football
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Published: September 16, 2009
It’s very rare that I do an auto draft for any league no matter what the stakes. If I’m paying for the league or not, I’ve always found that participating in the draft is half the fun, so why miss it?
Unfortunately, I didn’t have a choice for one of my friends’ football leagues this season. It’s a free league, so I didn’t mind too much, but I wish I had a chance to pre-rank my players at the least. Something came up at the last minute, costing me a chance to set all but the first few players.
So, I knew what I was going to get in the first round, but was left to hope for the best after that. It turned out worse then I ever could have imagined.
First of all, let’s just set the rules of the league. It is a 10-team league, but it has two quarterbacks and a flex spot, so it is still rather deep. It is also not a PPR league.
Here’s the roster that I was left with after the draft:
There are just too many negatives to really list. Pierre Thomas in the third? Bryant in the fifth? Akers in the eleventh?
So, being handed this debacle of a team, I made it my own goal to try to turn it into a winner. (I actually came close in the first week, losing by 1.1 pts.)
I want to make something fun out of a difficult situation and went to work. I’ve made numerous trade offers, though none have been successful quite yet. I’ve also hit the waiver wire hard, making the following moves:
Prior to Week One:
I haven’t stopped there, already hitting the waiver wire this week:
I’ve worked on and sent out a slew of additional trade offers this week, hoping to shake things up. I may be down early, but I’m far from out. There’s always hope, you just have to try and figure out where to go and how to make positive moves.
So, here is my question to everyone here. What would you try to do to improve this team? Would you trade one of the running backs? Dwayne Bowe? Jay Cutler? Who would you target?
Given the state of this team, I’m going to continue to update on its status on a week-to-week basis, and let’s see just how much magic I can work.
This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football
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Published: September 12, 2009
Tomorrow marks that start of the NFL season for the majority of the league, so let’s take a look at a few last minute decisions you may be agonizing over. Is Steve Breaston worth using? How about Mike Bell? Will Matt Cassel’s injury affect the status of Larry Johnson? Let’s take a look at these questions and a few others for Week One:
1) Larry Johnson/Jamal Charles – I’ve talked about Johnson in the past, hailing him as a player that you shouldn’t overlook (click here to view the article). Unfortunately, the duo is placed in a difficult situation in Week One. Matt Cassel is questionable, and even if he suits up it’s going to be tough to imagine him producing huge numbers.
As if allowing the opposing defense to focus on the run more isn’t enough, the fact that it’s the Baltimore Ravens defense just makes things 100 percent worse. They may have lost a few key players and their defensive coordinator, but make no mistake, this is a defense that is going to be among the leagues best (they were the third best against the run last season).
If you have usable alternatives, I’d avoid the Chiefs running back duo this week.
2) Knowshon Moreno – The first round draft choice is a hip pick for many, who has the potential to have a huge rookie campaign. He’s currently listed as questionable, and while he should be able to take the field, you really aren’t sure of the size of his role given the fact that he was limited in practice.
Correll Buckhalter will see plenty of time, which is going to hurt Moreno’s value this week. If you have a safer alternative on your bench, you may want to go with him for this week.
3) Steve Breaston – I know, I’ve said I would’ve drafted Devin Hester before him (click here for the article), but injury concerns for Anquan Boldin changes ones prospective for Week One.
When Boldin is quoted as saying, “It’s a long season. It’s only week one. I’d rather sit out game one as opposed to sitting out four or five other games. You just have to use your discretion.” in the Arizona Republic (click here for the post), you get the impression that he’s leaning towards missing the season’s opening game.
That would slide Breaston into a starter’s role, making him a player worth considering this week. It is not like he has no value on a normal week, so it just makes playing him an easier decision.
4) Mike Bell – Pierre Thomas is out, meaning that the Saints are going to have to turn to the third-string back to share carries with Reggie Bush. Bell burst onto the scene his rookie year, getting 157 carries for 677 yards for the Broncos after going undrafted, but has done nothing to speak of the last two seasons (19 carries for 45 yards).
He’s certainly a big risk, though taking on the Detroit Lions should help to ease a few fears. He wouldn’t be my top choice as a fill-in, but if you are in need he could prove to be a worthy gamble. I’d probably leave him for the extremely desperate, however.
5) Giants Wide Receivers – Like there wasn’t enough doubt here to begin with, now Mike Garafolo of the Newark Star-Ledger (click here for the article) is reporting that the team will see Hakeem Nicks, Domenick Hixon, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham “play an important role in the team’s offense during Sunday’s game.”
They couldn’t just pick two? Smith is probably the most likely to see consistent time as a possession receiver, but until this shakes itself out it’s not worth gambling on any of these players in your starting line-up. Leave them on your bench.
What are your thoughts? Which of these players would you use? Which would you bench?
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Published: September 11, 2009
Justin Gage was a receiver who had little respect heading into the 2009 season. His current ADP is 129.98, meaning in many leagues he wasn’t selected at all.
However, Gage plays for a team with no real standout threat at WR, so that statistic may have proven to be a miscalculation by many fantasy owners.
Who exactly were the team’s other options?
Then there is Gage, who is starting for the Titans and appeared to be a constant target for Kerry Collins. Given the state of the receiving corps, he easily could continue to be so.
After being buried on the Bears bench from 2003-2006, Gage joined the Titans in 2007 and quickly proved that he could be valuable. He caught 55 catches for 750 yards that season, though he did score just two TDs.
Last season, he was limited to just 12 games, catching 34 balls. He averaged 19.1 yards per catch, amassing 651 yards for the season. He also caught six TDs, showing just how explosive he could be.
In the first half of last night’s game against the Steelers, he had three catches for 27 yards and one TD, putting him second on the team in catches (Bo Scaife had three). He kept things rolling in the second half, picking up another four catches and 51 yards, leading the team for the day in catches (seven) and finishing second in yards (78).
He was the target for Collins 11 times, nearly double that of any other receiver (Britt and Scaife were thrown to six times each). That shows you, at least early on, that he is a target that is going to be the center of attention for the Titans.
Will he be able to continue at this type of pace? That remains to be seen, but at this point he has to be seen as a low-end, viable option in all fantasy formats.
While he may not be worth the gamble of starting, he’s definitely worth having on your bench to be used as a bye week fill-in or injury replacement.
I was able to go to the waiver wire and scoop him up last night and I’d recommend you doing the same.
Every season, there are a few receivers who make that next big step and emerge as a tremendous option in all formats. Why couldn’t it be Gage this season? He clearly is going to get the opportunity to excel.
It’s way too early to call allowing him to go undrafted a miscalculation, but he certainly is going to garner some attention after last night’s performance. Don’t miss out on the opportunity, especially if you have a fringe receiver buried on your bench.
What are your thoughts on Gage? Will he continue to build off of last night’s solid performance? Is he just a Week One flash in the pan?
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Published: September 10, 2009
I was a big believer in Ted Ginn Jr. in 2008.
I thought he had the chance to be a breakout wide receiver, but he fell well short with just 56 catches, 790 yards, and two TDs. As we prepare for the start of the 2009 campaign, I find myself back in the same quandary.
Could this be the year that Ginn emerges as a must start fantasy option?
He did take a step forward last season, improving from 34 catches and 420 yards in his rookie season, though this wasn’t enough for him to crack our Top 25 (click here to view). Part of that can be credited to the presence of a steady quarterback in Chad Pennington, who was able to get him the ball consistently and allow him to make plays.
The touchdowns are a concern, with Anthony Fasano leading the way for the Dolphins with seven in ’08. A lot of that had to do with Pennington’s adjusting to the offense. Part could be due to the offense itself.
Remember, this is the team that brought the Wildcat offense to the NFL.
Ronnie Brown saw some time behind center, though he only threw three passes. Still, with him rushing for 10 TDs, as well as Ricky Williams getting four, there weren’t that many opportunities to score via the air.
Ginn helped to offset that by getting two touchdowns on the ground. I know…four TDs are not going to blow your socks off. Still, with continued growth and Pennington settling in, I could easily see him adding a few more TDs this season.
In week one the Dolphins face the Falcons, who boasted the 21st best passing defense in the league last season. While they added DT Peria Jerry through the draft, that does little to improve the passing defense. Ginn enters the season as the team’s No. 1 receiver and I could easily see him posting a solid game.
Last season he had a pair of seven catch games, but only once surpassing 100 yards. I wouldn’t expect him to get there, at least not in week one. As for what I would expect him to do:
Receiving—five receptions, 83 yards, and one TD
Those are stats that I’d take on my team and are certainly usable. Maybe I’m a little too optimistic, but I’d recommend having him in my lineup for Week 1.
What do you think? Is Ginn a player that you think is worth using in Week 1?
Why or why not?
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Published: September 9, 2009
When ranking the Top 20 quarterbacks for 2009 (click here to view), Carson Palmer came in at No. 13. He was just outside being drafted as a starter in a typical 12-team league with injury concerns being the biggest reason why.
He was limited to just four games in 2008 thanks to an elbow injury, ultimately opting for rehab instead of Tommy John surgery. Despite his claims that he’s recovered from the injury, the fact that there was no surgery to correct the problem has to be a concern.
If that wasn’t enough, he’s been limited to just 11 pass attempts this preseason thanks to a high-ankle sprain he suffered in the opening game. He claims he’s prepared. Coach Marvin Lewis claims he’s prepared. But it really doesn’t matter what everyone says. Until he steps onto the field and proves his health, there are going to be questions surrounding his ability.
I’m not talking about one game. I’m not talking about two games. It’s going to take a few weeks of good health and good play for him to convince me.
He hasn’t had time to work with the new players on the offense like Laverneous Coles, something he should have had in the preseason. He hasn’t had an opportunity to work off any rust he had from such a long layoff.
Basically, he is one long list of questions without any convincing answers.
From 2005-07 he was among the league’s best QBs, making him an ideal gamble. Anyone with 86 touchdowns and 45 interceptions with over 12,000 yards deserves that respect.
Still, the idea of rolling the dice on him over these first few weeks could be a crushing blow. Many owners are doing just that, however, thanks to his current ADP of 91.24, the twelfth QB coming off the board.
He’s going before:
Palmer, meanwhile, takes on the Broncos. While he may ordinarily be the best option of this group, he’d probably be the last one I’d play. With the length of his layoff, you really can’t expect much from him this first game back.
My prediction for Week 1: 18-28, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.
That’s an okay line, but it’s not going to win you anything. In two or three weeks, my projections for him would probably be significantly better, but you need to give him the time to adjust to the new players in the offense and the NFL game in general. It’s been way too long to expect huge things.
My suggestion would be to have him on your bench this week in one-quarterback formats.
What about everyone else? What are you expecting from Palmer in Week 1? Would you use him?
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Published: September 8, 2009
While it’s just the season’s first week, that doesn’t mean you aren’t already looking toward the waiver wire for a little help. Maybe an injury has opened up a void. Maybe you’re just unhappy with your draft results. Whatever the reasons, here’s a few under-the-radar offensive options to look at:
Quarterback
Mark Sanchez—New York Jets
It’s tough to lean on a rookie in his first career start, but Sanchez steps in to a pretty good situation. The Jets are going to lean on the running game while trying to protect Sanchez, much like the Ravens did in 2008 with Joe Flacco.
He also gets to face a team in the Houston Texans who was in the bottom third in the league in defense last season, allowing 336.6 yards per game. They didn’t do anything significant to upgrade either, outside of adding first round draft choice Brian Cushing at LB.
They were among the leagues worst in interceptions, with just 12, so if the Jets can wear them down on the ground there should be plenty of opportunity for him to succeed.
Owned in 23 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 25.1 percent in ESPN Leagues
Running back
Ahmad Bradshaw—New York Giants
We all know the successes of last seasons Giants No. 2 RB, Derrick Ward, who managed to rush for 1,000 yards despite being the understudy to Brandon Jacobs. The third back in that vaunted trio, Bradshaw opens the season as the new Giants No. 2 man, which could lead to some huge success.
Jacobs was banged up a bit in the final preseason game, something that has become a common occurrence for him. He did return, but you still have to wonder how healthy he’s going to be on Opening Day.
Facing the Redskins, running on the inside may be tough going, thanks to the new $100 million man in the middle of the defensive line, Albert Haynesworth. If Jacobs is getting stuffed on the inside, or is still a bit banged up, they could turn to the speed of Bradshaw on the outside to get things going.
Owned in 48 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 98.2 percent of ESPN Leagues
Wide Receiver
Sidney Rice—Minnesota Vikings
Let’s make no mistake about it, Brett Favre is going to be coming out with something to prove. He’s been listening to everyone doubt him and it wouldn’t surprise me if he steps onto the field and torches the Cleveland Browns, led by his former coach Eric Mangini.
It’s a season full of retribution for Favre, and Mangini is likely just the first on the hit list.
Bernard Berrian is going to be on one side, but he’s likely to draw the most interest from the defense. That should open things up for Rice, a player who we’ve already discussed as having the potential to have a breakout campaign in 2009 (click here to read the article).
Owned in 18 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 13.3 percent of ESPN Leagues
Tight End
Brandon Pettigrew—Detroit Lions
We all know that tight end is a wild card position to begin with. You just never know which player is going to step up and have a huge week. With Pettigrew being named the starter for the Lions, as well as Matt Stafford being handed the starting role, it makes for a good combination.
When you have a rookie QB, they are going to be looking for an outlet. They are going to be looking to get the ball out as quickly as possible.
Pettigrew was a first round draft pick, so we all know he can perform. Look for him to try to prove to the masses right off the bat that he was deserving of his draft selection.
Owned in 21 percent of Yahoo Leagues and 18.9 percent of ESPN Leagues
How do you think these players are going to perform in the season’s first week? Are there any other sleepers you are eyeing?
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Published: September 6, 2009
To look at Rams top wide receiver Donnie Avery brings a litany of questions:
A second round draft pick in 2008, Avery was second on the Rams in 2008 with 53 receptions and 674 yards, trailing just Torry Holt in both categories. With Holt now calling Jacksonville home, Avery was thought to enter 2009 as the team’s prime target but injuries have derailed those plans a bit.
He had been sidelined since August 7 after suffering a stress fracture in his foot during a scrimmage. It was questionable if he would recover in time to open the season, but he was in the line-up for Thursday’s final preseason game.
He was only in the game for the first two series and didn’t have a single pass thrown his way, but being able to take the field was a huge victory. While it is possible that he’s still hindered by the injury for a week or two into the regular season, the fact that he will be able to take the field gives him a chance to be productive.
Marc Bulger has also been limited this preseason, just helping fuel the questions about his potential success in 2009. Once regarded as one of the elite quarterbacks in the game, he has been mired with injuries only once starting all 16 games in a season.
Last year he did manage to play in 15 games, but still had just 2,720 yards. Over the past two seasons he’s thrown just 22 touchdowns compared to 28 interceptions. His completion percentage hasn’t exceeded 58.5% each of the past two years.
Even this preseason, he’s been sidelined with a fractured pinkie. Considering that the projected second-string quarterback is Kyle Boller, with a career passer rating of 71.9, there is reason to worry that Avery could suffer this season from poor quarterback play.
Will Bulger be healthy? Can he rediscover his Pro bowl status? What if Boller is forced into duty?
With that said, let’s take a look at what I would expect from Avery this season:
Receiving – 61 catches, 835 yards, 5 TD
When looking for a wide receiver, you want someone who you can count on. With Avery, I don’t think you get that. He proved to be good last season, but he was far from elite.
Throw in the questions about his QB and the fact that the Rams are going to be a team to ride Steven Jackson into the end zone at any time possible, and you get a WR with more questions then answers.
He has upside, however, considering he will be his teams top receiver. He’s worth getting, but too me I don’t want to be depending on him as one of my top three receivers.
While he could prove worthy of a starting spot, he’d look better on my bench as a No. 4 who I can reap the benefits from if he outperforms my projections.
What do you think? Do you think Avery will be a must start fantasy WR option or is he better as your fourth option?
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Published: September 5, 2009
Joe Flacco became a darling of the league last season, bursting onto the scene as a first round draft choice equipped with a big-time arm. It’s rare that a rookie quarterback can walk into the NFL and immediately guide his team to a winning record, let alone the playoffs. He accomplished that, starting all 16 games en route to an 11-5 record and a wildcard playoff birth.
Before we dub him a great fantasy option this season, we need to be cautious. First of all, the Ravens clearly protected him in their game plans, limiting him to 428 attempts. That placed him 19th in the league.
He only managed 2,971 yards and 14 TDs. His strength was managing the game, throwing just 12 interceptions and stepping up to make a play when the team needed it the most.
It is obvious that the offense was focused around the running game, however, something that is likely to be repeated in 2009. When you have Ray Rice (who I profiled recently, so click here to read), Willis McGahee, and Le’Ron McClain, do you really blame them?
You also have to take into account the questions surrounding the men on the outside.
Derrick Mason? Is he retired? Well, it seemed like it, but he had a change of heart. While he does have seven seasons of over 1,000 yards, he is now 35-years old and you have to wonder how much he has left in the tank. As a number two-receiver, maybe, but he enters the season as the top receiver for the Ravens.
Mark Clayton? We’ve all heard about the promise and talent, but only once has he posted a season of over 700 yards or scored more than three touchdowns. Until he proves he can do that, he’s going to be surrounded with question marks and shouldn’t be considered a reliable option.
After that, whom else do they have?
I would be a lot more comfortable with Flacco if he had a big-time, dependable, young wide receiver who he could just throw the ball up to and watch him make a play.
Couple that with the Ravens desire to focus on the run, and it makes it tough to consider Flacco as a usable fantasy option this season outside of deeper two quarterback formats.
Even in shallower formats, I’d lean against stashing him as my reserve QB. While it’s possible that he could post a good week now and then, there’s no guarantee that it’s going to come in the week that you need him.
What do you think? Is Flacco a QB you’d consider drafting? How good do you think he’ll be this season?
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