Will Vincent Jackson Emerge as a Stud WR in 2009?

The San Diego Chargers are a team who are perpetually in pursuit of a top-level wide receiver.

Since Keenan McCardell in 2005, no receiver has caught more than 59 receptions in a season and that came last year when Vincent Jackson showed signs of emerging as that potentially headlining threat.

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2005 NFL Draft, Jackson has made slow, but steady progress. His rookie season was shortened by injuries, as he missed the first five games of the year, certainly stunting his growth. He ultimately played in just eight games, picking up just three catches.

In 2006, he started to become a bigger part of the offense, appearing in all 16 games (and even starting seven). While he had 27 catches for 453 yards, he did score six TD’s giving us a glimpse of his abilities.

When the team released McCardell prior to the 2007 season and saw Eric Parker go down with an injury, Jackson was thrust into the starting role, but was unable to fully emerge as a go-to-guy. He did catch 41 balls for 623 yards, but had just three TD’s, falling short of expectations.

Last season, his second full year as a starter, things changed. While he only had 59 catches, he showed his ability as a big play guy, amassing 1,098 yards and seven TD’s. His 18.6 yards per reception was third behind Bernard Berrian (20.1) and Justin Gage (19.1), for receivers with over 600 yards receiving.

Despite missing some time this preseason with a sprained finger, the growth he has had in the past few seasons shows that he could be on the precipice of fully breaking out. He has a solid quarterback in Philip Rivers throwing him the ball and he has little competition atop the depth chart. 

He has a running game, headed by LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles that should force teams to focus on that instead of on him. I know people want to say that Tomlinson has lost a step and is in for some problems this season, but I’m not buying it. As I’ve been saying for a while (which you can see by reading my comparison of Tomlinson and Matt Forte by clicking here), when a down season consists of over 1,100 yards and 11 TD’s, I’m not really worried. 

Let’s also not forget about Antonio Gates, one of the most prolific tight ends in history, who will help open up the passing game. Teams need to account for him, treating him like a wide receiver, meaning double teaming Jackson will be nearly impossible.

The biggest obstacle for Jackson could be finding his way into the end zone. 

Gates is going to be the target in the red zone, as he scored at least eight TD’s last season, for the fifth consecutive year. You also have Tomlinson, who had one TD through the air, on top of his ground attack. It was the first season since 2002 that he didn’t score at least 17 TD’s, and I would expect a rebound in his future.

There are only so many TD’s to go around, so he may struggle to even match his total from last season. I think it’s possible that he does, but I wouldn’t expect him to exceed it, which certainly does limit his value slightly.

While I wouldn’t expect him to suddenly emerge as a 100-reception receiver, further progression would make sense.

As for what I’m projecting him for: 74 receptions, 1,190 yards, and seven TD’s.

Jackson is the perfect high upside guy to take as a No. 2 WR. His current ADP is 50.71, so he’s going early in the fifth round. That seems like a perfect fit and if he is on the board when I’m picking there, I wouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

What do you think of Jackson? Will he take the next step or will he regress in 2009?

 

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Top 5 Fantasy Rookie Wide Receivers

While rookie wide receivers don’t generally garner the same attention as rookie running backs do (click here to view our Top Five Rookie Running Backs), that doesn’t mean that you can’t find a few useful fantasy options among them.  Let’s take a look at my top five for 2009:

1. Michael Crabtree—San Francisco 49ers

Some believed he was the best talent in the draft, let alone the best wide receiver. He fell to 10th overall, though, where the 49ers were more than willing to quickly grab him. Maybe it was the reported fracture in his foot that scared teams away, but whatever the reason, the team was handed a major gift.

While it’s still unsettled as to who will man the QB position, either Shaun Hill or Alex Smith will benefit from having the 6′1″ receiver on the outside. With Josh Morgan and Isaac Bruce his only real competition for playing time, Crabtree should walk into San Francisco as a starting WR (assuming he ultimately signs).

At Texas Tech, he had 231 catches, 3,127 yards and 41 TD in just two college seasons. Last season, he has just two games of five catches, his lowest totals of the season, and scored a TD in all but two games. 

Those lofty numbers are obviously not going to happen, especially on a team that has been somewhat offensively inept in recent years (ranking 23rd in yards per game last season). He will, however, provide a boost and should put up solid numbers for owners in all formats.

2. Jeremy Maclin—Philadelphia Eagles

He enters as the likely third receiver for the Eagles, but has the most dependable QB to rely on of anyone on this list. That will go a long way to help him post productive numbers in his rookie campaign.

Concerns over the health of Kevin Curtis could also play a factor. He suffered from a sports hernia in the offseason, and is slightly hobbled by a leg contusion. While that’s not a major injury, anything that keeps him off the field will help Maclin gain experience and comfort in the offense.

3. Brian Robiskie—Cleveland Browns

A second-round draft pick, Robiskie’s value shouldn’t just be known as the son of former NFL player/coach Terry Robiskie. On nfl.com at the time of the combine, they said, “While Brian Robiskie has the reliable route-running and hands one might expect considering his father’s tutelage, he has built his own reputation as a surprisingly fluid athlete for a prospect of his size.”

At 6′3″ and 209 lbs., he’s a non-first round pick with a rare opportunity to walk into training camp and gain a starting job. You pretty much have Braylon Edwards, then everyone else. While they have veterans like David Patten & Josh Cribbs who could win the job, those two had a grand total of 13 catches last season.  Robiskie is going to get an opportunity and certainly could make the most of it.

4. Percy Harvin—Minnesota Vikings

His value could lie on his ability to add a new wrinkle to a Vikings offense that is unsure what they are going to get out of the QB position. Over three college seasons, he rushed for 1,851 yards. That’s not far off from the 1,929 yards he had through the air.

That ability is going to help him not only force his way into the line-up, but have some plays in the playbook designed specifically for him. That could go a long way into giving him value, though it may not be enough for him to make a fantasy impact this season.

5. Hakeem Nicks—New York Giants

There’s a huge hole in the Giants offense, thanks to the departure of Plaxico Burress, but there’s a long list of guys who join Nicks in pursuit of a major role. Dominik Hixon, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, and Sinorice Moss all will get a chance, and could share playing time throughout the season.

He has the potential to really emerge from that group and make an impact. At the same time, with so much competition for a spot, there’s the risk that he ultimately does little this season.

Honorable Mention—Kenny Britt, Darius Heyward-Bey

What do you think of these rookies? Who do you think will have the biggest impact in 2009?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

2009 Projection: Chad Ochocino

 

Chad Ochocinco is a character, if nothing else, which brings him into the limelight.  That exposure helps to bring him to the forefront of fantasy owners’ minds, but does he still have the talent to justify selecting him?

Remember, this is the same player who posted six consecutive seasons of 1,100 yards or more from 2002-2007, and five straight of 7 TD or more.  Of course, he had also played in 16 games in each of those seasons, something he was not able to accomplish in 2008.

Injuries helped to limit to him to just 13 games (10 starts), missing the final two games of the season and not starting the two he did play in during December.  It’s easy to point to that for his significant falloff, but he did not manage a single 100-yard receiving game during the season.

His longest catch of the year was just 26-yards, with only three of his receptions going for 20+ yards and none for over forty.  This is the same player who had at least 16 catches of over 20 yards from 2003 through 2007, so it is apparent that he has lost a step or two. 

Of course, the absence of Carson Palmer likely contributed to his 53 reception, 540 yard season, but I would ask you to then explain for T.J. Houshmandzadeh (92 receptions for 904 yards), who didn’t seem to miss a beat?  Obviously, a healthy Palmer in 2009 will likely mean at least a marginal improvement for Ochocinco, who has a rapport with his QB.

Is that rapport enough to think he’s going to fully rebound into the player he once was? 

Doubtful, to say the least. 

With Houshmandzadeh now in Seattle, the Bengals brought in veteran Laverneous Coles to play opposite Ochocinco, forming a solid, though unspectacular veteran duo.  With neither likely to have “breakout” potential, the defenses aren’t going to be forced to focus on one or the other.  Basically, he’s not going to get the benefit of the defense focusing on the WR opposite him (like Lee Evans should in Buffalo, thanks to the signing of Terrell Owens).

With that said, let’s take a look at how I would project him for 2009:

Receiving: 72 catches, 950 yards, 7 TD

All of this is not to say that Ochocinco could be a solid play in all formats, but he’s clearly not a #1 WR anymore and maybe not even a #2.  The statistics I’m expecting from him would place him as a solid #3 in all formats however, so consider drafting him to fill out your WR slots.  He has the potential to have a huge rebound season, but given his performance last season and the uncertainty that Carson Palmer will be able to be the same QB he once was, there is a huge shadow of doubt hanging over him.

What do you think of Ochocinco?  Will he rebound from 2008?  How far?

This article is also featured at www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Top 5 Fantasy Rookie Running Backs for 2009

Some of the best breakout performers in football fantasy leagues are rookies, who we’re not quite sure what we are going to get from.  Let’s take a look at who my Top 5 rookie running backs will be for this season.

 

1. Knoshown Moreno – Denver Broncos

He was ranked No. 19 on my Top 25 running backs list (click here to view), so naturally he’s going to take the top spot on this list. He was the first back off the board, taken No. 12 overall, and enters the season with little competition in the backfield. 

Does anyone really think Correll Buckhalter or LaMont Jordan offer much of a threat to his carries at this point?

Despite Mike Shanahan no longer leading the way, the Broncos have long been a team capable of creating running backs seemingly from nothing.  Moreno should be the next in a long line of success stories as he develops into a must use option in all formats.

 

2. Chris Wells – Arizona Cardinals

The other rookie who found his way into my Top 25 (No. 22), he posted back-to-back 1,000+ yards, averaging 5.9 and 5.8 yards per carry.  That may be college, but it is still worth noting.

With Edgerrin James jettisoned during the offseason, his prime competition will be Tim Hightower (399 yards and 10 TD last season). I would be surprised if they didn’t at least split carries, but Wells has significantly more upside and should ultimately see the bulk of the carries. 

He may lose some TD potential by sharing time with Hightower (which is the major difference between himself and Moreno), but that’s something that can be said about many at this point in the NFL.

 

3. Donald Brown – Indianapolis Colts

Even with Joseph Addai, the Colts saw an opportunity to add talent to the backfield and quickly took it.  It’s tough to imagine drafting a running back in the first round not to give him significant carries, so you have to imagine the Brown is going to get a chance to shine.

While Addai struggled last season, playing in only 12 games and picking up 544 yards, he began his career with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons. It’s hard to imagine him not getting an opportunity to play as well, which certainly will decrease Brown’s potential value. 

That’s what keeps him a step behind the other two backs selected in the first round, he’s definitely in a situation to share carries.

 

4. LeSean McCoy – Philadelphia Eagles

Make no mistake, McCoy is going to be the back to provide a rest for Brian Westbrook, who we all know always tends to be battling an injury. If Westbrook were to go down, opening up more playing time for McCoy, he could prove to have significant value for fantasy owners in all formats. 

At this point, however, he’s not likely to be more of a bye week fill-in, as he doesn’t have the potential to put up huge numbers on a week-to-week basis.

 

5. Andre Brown – New York Giants

Last season the Giants employed a three running back set, with Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw. With Ward now calling Tampa Bay home, the Giants needed a new back to join their three-headed monster. In the fourth round out N.C. State, they may have found that man.

At 6′0″, 224 lbs., his stature is very similar to that of Ward and the Giants may lean on him to mimic his performance if they determine that Bradshaw is better suited as a third down back. 

If that were to happen, Brown could see significant carries and really be a weapon in deeper fantasy formats.  Wait and see, but he’s a player worth keeping an eye on.

 

Honorable Mention: Shonn Greene, New York Jets

What do you think of these rookies?  Who will have the biggest performance?  Who’s likely to fall flat?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football 

2009 Projections for Dallas Cowboys’ Roy Williams

Last season the Cowboys gave up a hefty bounty to acquire Roy Williams from the Detroit Lions, putting huge expectations on him that he may be able to propel them to the next level. 

For the entire season he had 36 catches and 430 yards, but after the deal he had just 19 catches for 198 yards and 1 TD in ten games.

That’s a huge disappointment, to say the least. As we approach the 2009 season he enters as the team’s top receiving threat, with Terrell Owens being cut loose in the off season.

There’s a lot of pressure on Tony Romo to succeed, as many pointed to Owens as one of his major problems. The feeling was that he felt obligated to consistently force the ball to TO, detracting from his performance and that of some of the other receivers.

While tight end Jason Witten may be the top receiver for the team, he already had 81 catches and 952 yards in 2008—how much better could he potentially get? 

The team is going to have to look to get the ball downfield, and Williams has proven in the past to be capable of doing so. Let’s not forget his big 2006 campaign, when he had 82 catches for 1,310 yards. That year he had 24 catches for 20+ yards.

He’s not going to be a stud in the red zone. He’s never had more than 8 TD catches in a season, with only 30 in his five-year career. While the catches and yards are going to rebound, don’t look for the TD to be enough to carry him to the elite levels.

The other big issue is his ability to stay on the field. Only once as he played in all 16 games, certainly limiting his potential to post the monster numbers expected from the seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft.

As for what I would expect from him this season:

Receiving: 71 catches, 1,075 yards, 7 TD

Those numbers would make him a solid No. 2 option in all formats. I don’t see him as being one of the elite, but with a full training camp to adjust to the offense he should be able to get worked in and flourish as the top receiver in the system (albeit, potentially the second option).

He said it himself, quoted on CBS as saying, “If I’m coached to do it the right way, I can do it. Just tell me what to do and I can do it, coach. Because, once again, I am a coachable wide receiver who does what he’s coached to do.”

While he wouldn’t be my top choice to have as my second WR, he certainly is a player that I’d feel comfortable owning.

What about you? How do you see Williams performing this season? Could he emerge as one of the elite?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Ranking the NFL Wide Receivers: No. 16-25

I’ve already revealed my Top 15 WR (which you can view by clicking here), so let’s take a look at the next 10 on my list:

 

16. Vincent Jackson—San Diego Chargers

Being the top receiver for the team with one of the best QBs in the league surely has its advantages.  He has gotten better each year in the league going from 59 yards to 453 yards to 623 yards to last season’s 1,098 yards. 

I know the team is going to run plenty (with LaDainian Tomlinson & Darren Sproles), and despite aging, Antonio Gates is going to be the prime target in the red zone.  Still, it’s likely he takes the next step and becomes a major force in the Chargers offense.

 

17. T.J. Houshmandzadeh—Seattle Seahawks 

He leaves Cincinnati to become the top option for steady QB in Matt Hasselbeck.  He’s had over 90 catches in each of the past three seasons and 900 yards or more in each of the past five. 

He didn’t find the end zone very often last season (just 4 TD), but that was partly due to not having a strong QB throwing him the ball. I’d expect him to score at least 8 TD this season, if not more.

 

18. Santonio Holmes—Pittsburgh Steelers 

The reigning Super Bowl MVP needs to turn it up in the regular seasons.  He seems primed to do so, having reportedly added muscle this off season (you have to love these clichés, no?).  Last season he managed just 821 yards and 5 TDs, only twice having 90 yards receiving in a game. 

The difference is that he’s likely going to be the No.1 receiver this year, over an aging Hines Ward, which should allow him to significantly improve on those numbers. He’s a risk, but then again, any receiver at this point in the draft are going to have question marks hanging over their head. He has tremendous upside and is worth the gamble.

 

19. Anthony Gonzalez—Indianapolis Colts 

I’ve already spent time discussing him (click here for the article),the fact of the matter is that he is now the No. 2 receiver (thanks to the departure of Marvin Harrison) on a team that features one of the top three QBs in the league. He’s certainly ready to take the next step.

 

20. Jericho Cotchery—New York Jets 

He’s the No. 1 receiver in New York, but his value now lay in the hands of a young QB, whether it be Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens.  That’s certainly going to have a major impact on his potential this season.  He actually took a step backward last season, with just 858 yards. 

As Brett Favre faded, so did Cotchery, with just two games of 80+ yards of the seasons final two months.  Over that time he also had just 2 TD.  He’s going to make some plays, but if the QB is struggling, his numbers are once again going to go with it.

 

21. DeSean Jackson—Philadelphia Eagles 

A rookie last season, he showed the Eagles what he was capable of doing by picking up 912 yards and playing in all 16 games (15 starts).

Granted, he managed just 2 TD, but with more maturity and experience playing with Donovan McNabb, that number can only go up. Look for him to really emerge in his sophomore campaign making him worth using as a No. 2 receiver in all formats.

 

22. Bernard Berrian—Minnesota Vikings

The question of Brett Favre has been answered, and could it be a blessing in disguise?  As the Jets saw last season, just because Favre is there doesn’t mean the passing game is going to be explosive all year long. 

He only had 48 catches last season, but he set a career high with 964 yards and 7 TD.  Look for him to continue to build on those numbers.

 

23. Braylon Edwards—Cleveland Browns 

Mr. Drops, as he’s come to be known, was nearly shipped away to New York during the off season and enters 2009 in desperate need of re—establishing his value. After scoring 16 TD on 80 catches in 2007, he managed to find the end zone just three times last season on 55 catches. 

You can blame the QB all you want, but he simply needs to step it up and make plays.  He has the potential to return to being a Top 10—12 wide receiver this season, certainly making him worth the gamble.

 

24. Lee Evans—Buffalo Bills

He posted a 1,000—yard season for the second time in his career in 2008.  With Terrell Owens in place and Trent Edwards potentially ready to bust out, Evans could be in line for a monster season. No longer the focus of the opposing defense, he should have the ability to post solid numbers.

 

25. Eddie Royal—Denver Broncos

He emerged as a rookie last season (91 catches, 980 yards), but that was with Jay Cutler at the helm. Can he repeat those numbers with Kyle Orton running the offense?  Time will tell.

 

What do you think?  Who got left out of the Top 25 that you feel should be included?  Who should be removed from the list?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Marques Colston: 2009 Projection

A seventh round draft pick out of Hofstra in 2006, Marques Colston burst onto the scene in his rookie year, picking up 1,038 yards receiving as well as eight TDs. He followed that up in 2007 by catching 98 passes for 1,202 yards and 11 TDs, entrenching himself among the league’s best receivers.

His 2008 season, however, was partially derailed by injury. After playing in the team’s opener, he was sidelined for the next five games after tearing ligament in his thumb that had to be corrected via surgery. He came back in Week 7, starting the game, but didn’t register a catch.

He wasn’t shutout the rest of the season, picking up 100 yards receiving games in three of the final nine games, as well as a 99-yard contest. If there were any concerns that he hadn’t returned to form, he scored four TDs over the season’s final three weeks.

He enters 2009 as the top receiver for the team with the best QB in the league, though he is coming off surgery on his knee this offseason. It was considered a minor procedure involving “some microfracture techniques.” It certainly is worth noting, though thus far this season he hasn’t shown any ill effects.

Mike Triplett of The New Orleans Times-Picayune has noted how Colston may be the main target in the red zone, recently describing the red zone drills in practice by saying:

“Brees repeatedly fired the ball in Colston’s direction. He caught one easy touchdown pass, using his size to shield the closest defensive back (who was obstructed from my view). On the next play, Brees scrambled away from pressure and threw high toward Colston in the back of the end zone over corner back Jabari Greer. Colston leapt for it and wasn’t able to reel it in—but that’s a catch he’ll make once he gets back in his rhythm. The important thing is that he’s a target Brees trusts and looks for in those situations.”

Considering the way he ended 2008 and his ability to score TDs in the past, this is very promising for fantasy owners. It certainly would not be surprising to see him once again score double-digit TDs, making him a potential No. 1 WR in all formats and certainly a great No. 2.

As for what I would project him doing this season, I’d put him at:

Receiving: 78 catches, 1,180 yards, 10 TD

The catches aren’t necessarily going to put him at the top of the league’s leader board, but the yards and TDs place him among the best. There were only 10 receivers last season who had over 1,100 yards and only seven who managed double-digit TDs.

There’s no doubt he’s a risk, especially with the knee surgery he’s coming off, but it doesn’t seem like it’s effecting him. If it’s last season’s production that concerns you, just listen to Drew Brees, who is quoted on CBS as saying “I think he’s a guy who’s somewhat of a get-in-a-rhythm kind of guy and can be very successful.”

He went on to say that, “Unfortunately  last year, he had a great preseason and then that first game (he got injured). And then he’s out five or six weeks. It takes a little while to get back in the swing of things, because everybody else around you on the team and the teams that you’re playing, they’re in a rhythm.”

His ADP is currently 25.76, and he’s about the 10th receiver off the board, according to Mock Draft Central. That may be a little early, given the inherent risk, but not too far off.

I’d say, draft him with confidence in 2009. What does everyone else think? How good will Colston be? Is he a player you’re targeting?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

2009 Projection: Maurice Jones-Drew

It feels like fantasy owners have been waiting for Maurice Jones-Drew to become an elite fantasy running back for years.  He’s never rushed for more than 1,000 yards or carried the ball more than 197 times (which he did last season), thanks to sharing carries with Fred Taylor since being drafted in the second round of 2006 out of UCLA.

Taylor is gone, now calling New England home, and Jones-Drew will finally get an opportunity to be the featured back. In fact, his potential back-ups rushed the ball for a total of four carries last season and a whopping nine yards. The only other back that has significant carries is Alvin Pearman, who set his career high with 39 carries back in 2005. Needless to say, the offense is going to be on Jones-Drew’s shoulders.

At 5′7″ and a little more than 200 pounds, there is concern that he may not be able to handle the beating a full-time back takes, and those are fair. He is shorter then Tiki Barber (5′10″), but we all know what Barber proved capable of doing.

Jones-Drew has shown over the past three seasons that he could make an impact, despite not carrying the ball all that often. You cannot forget to factor in the times he received a pass.

Last season he set a career high with 62 receptions, after amassing 86 over his first two seasons. Even if he were not to improve on that number with full-time snaps, very few backs supplement tremendous rushing ability with his type of receiving threat out of the backfield. Only Matt Forte (63) caught more passes, with six other running backs recorded 50-plus catches. Needless to say, it’s a huge advantage.

Jones-Drew will also benefit from one of the strongest offensive lines in the game. As well as getting back three starters back who missed at least part of last season, the team added Tra Thomas, a Pro Bowl left tackle, as a free agent signing and used their first-round pick (No. 8 overall) on Eugene Monroe. Adding those two pieces to an already strong line should give Jones-Drew plenty of holes to run through.

Let’s get one thing straight: Jones-Drew is a definite risk (outside of PPR leagues), especially if he’s being selected among the top-two players on draft day. He’s never had the opportunity to be the main back in the NFL so there is no telling how he is going to react. 

With a career yards per carry of 4.8 to go along with a great receiving threat out of the backfield and a great line leading the way, this should be his chance to really shine, but you never know.

If asked to project out his season statistics, I would say:

Rushing: 1,275 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: 550 yards, 3 TD

That certainly equals a monster back, doesn’t it? Still, for me, the risk doesn’t equate to the reward. I’d much rather take an Adrian Peterson or Michael Turner with those first two picks.

What do you think?  Where would you peg his numbers for 2009?

 

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Fantasy Football Sleeper Spotlight: Bradshaw, Davis, Russell & More

Today, let’s take a look at five players with the potential to break out and make a fantasy impact in 2009:

• RB Ahmad Bradshaw – New York Giants
  He was the third wheel for a team that produced a pair of 1,000-yard backs in 2008, but Derrick Ward is now the main man in Tampa Bay.  That leaves the No. 2 hole available, with Brandon Jacobs in the lead, though he will likely be conserved, as they try to keep him healthy and on the field.  Bradshaw offers a great compliment, being the speed to Jacobs’ pounding style.  He averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season, so if he can maintain that while getting significantly more carries than the 67 he was given in ‘08, he could be a viable fill-in back.  Granted, Jacobs is going to see the majority of the TD opportunities, but Bradshaw could prove viable for deeper formats.
• WR Chansi Stuckey – New York Jets
  He was fourth on the Jets in receiving yards last season (359 yards) and now enters 2009 battling David Clowney (one reception in ‘08) for the No. 2 receiver, replacing the departed Laverneous Coles.  Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was quoted on cbssports.com as saying, “Chansi Stuckey is a guy we feel very good about. He played quite a bit of snaps for us last year and had over 30 catches and is having a very good offseason.”  I wouldn’t call him a guarantee by any stretch, but someone needs to help replace the 70 catches for 850 yards that Coles produced last season.  It certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see him pick up 60+ catches for 750+ yards, with upside beyond that for the third-year receiver. 
• QB JaMarcus Russell – Oakland Raiders
  No, it’s not the addition of Darrius Heyward-Bey that makes me think he’s likely to take the next step in his development.  His numbers were not completely awful last season, tossing 2,423 yards with 13 TD and eight INT over 15 games.  In December, he completed 63.7 percent of his passes, including two touchdown passes in each of his last three games.  Jeff Garcia is now backing him up, a QB with a lot of experience who hopefully can impart some of that to Russell and help him mature and settle in to the position.  I wouldn’t suggest him necessarily developing into a No. 1 QB option for owners, but certainly is likely to be a No. 2 for those in deeper two-quarterback formats.
• TE Vernon Davis – San Francisco 49ers
  Since being drafted sixth overall in 2006, everyone has been waiting for Davis to perform like an elite receiving tight end, putting up numbers that any wide receiver would be envious of.  The 103 catches for 1,132 yards and nine TDs is exactly what people were hoping for, but those are his career marks, giving him a mediocre start to his NFL career.  This year could see things change, however.  Michael Crabtree is in, helping to take some pressure off of him.  Expectations are low, considering his production thus far, additionally lowering the pressure.  Mike Martz, never a proponent of utilizing the tight end, is gone.  Of course, he’s going to need either Shaun Hill or Alex Smith to step up if he really wants to take the next step.  The truth of the matter is, outside of the top three or four tight ends, you can throw a blanket over them and hope that your pick is the one to emerge.  Davis has that potential this season and is certainly worth considering in the late rounds of your draft.
   
• WR Miles Austin – Dallas Cowboys
  The New York Jets met with the restricted free agent, but ultimately he returned to the Cowboys where he currently is No. 3 on the depth chart behind Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton (who he’ll be battling against for time on the field).  He had just 13 catches last season, but 11 of them went for first downs and three for TDs.  He had five catches of 20+ yards, helping to an average of 21.4 yards per catch.  That’s despite suffering a pair of knee injuries that limited him to just 12 games.  He’s hurting again, this time with a hamstring, but if he can recover from that, he has the potential to be a big part of the Cowboys offense.  He’s not going to be the first option (Jason Witten) and he’s not going to be the second (Roy Williams).  Still, with Tony Romo no longer forced to consistently try to get the ball to Terrell Owens, there should be plenty of opportunity for Austin to make an impact.  Considering what he did last season, he’s not going to need more than 50 catches to be an impact player for both the Cowboys and fantasy owners.

What do you think of these players?  Who do you think is going to breakout?  Who would you shy away from?

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

Ask the Expert: Joseph Reedy Talks Cincinnati Bengals

I recently got to pose five questions to Joseph Reedy, a beat writer for the Cincinnati Enquirer who follows the Bengals (to read his blog, click here).  He discussed Carson Palmer’s impending return, the team’s receiving corps, Cedric Benson and much more.  

So, without further adieu, let’s see what he had to say:

1) After missing the majority of the 2008 season, how has Carson Palmer looked thus far?  Can we expect him to return to the player he was prior to the injury or will the elbow problem continue to bother him?

Joseph Reedy: Palmer has looked good, and the elbow appears to be 100 percent. If the season would’ve lasted a week longer last season, he would’ve started then. He will be on a pitch count during training camp that is mainly precautionary, but the velocity and spin that he has on the ball looks better than it has the past couple seasons.

2) Can Cedric Benson shoulder the load as the main running back or will the newly acquired Brian Leonard steal significant carries from him?

Joseph Reedy: Benson will be the main running back and should average 20-25 carries a game. With the offseason conditioning, he is ready to shoulder that load, which he hasn’t had in his NFL career but did have at the University of Texas. Leonard, DeDe Dorsey, Kenny Watson and sixth-round pick Bernard Scott are all vying to be that second back.

3) T.J. Houshmanzdadeh left to go to Seattle, but the team quickly replaced him with Laveranues Coles.  How do you see Coles and Chad Ochocino performing this season?  Do you see Chris Henry putting his past transgressions behind him and contributing this season?  Is there any other receiver on the roster that could step up and make an impact?

Joseph Reedy: Coles and Ochocinco give the Bengals one of the most experienced receiver duos in the league. Coles looked good during the offseason OTAs and minicamps. Ochocinco, attitude wise, is ready to bounce back from last year. Henry mostly played Ochocinco’s slot position during OTAs and has mostly gained the trust back of his teammates and Palmer. However, no one knows if he has fully put behind his off-the-field problems. As far as other receivers looking to step up, expect to see plenty of Andre Caldwell as a kick returner and as that inside receiver who excels on third downs much like Houshmandzadeh did.

4) The biggest additions may have been on the defense, with Tank Johnson and Roy Williams being thrown into the mix then drafting Rey Maualuga and Michael Johnson.  How much do you think these additions improve them and why?

Joseph Reedy: Tank Johnson should help upgrade a pass rush that has been sorely lacking the past couple years while Williams’ addition gives the Bengals two of the hardest hitting safeties in the league (Chris Crocker being the other). Maualuga and Johnson are still learning, so it is more difficult to get a gage on them.

5) How big of an impact do you think first round pick Andre Smith will have in the passing and running games this season?

Joseph Reedy: The offense will only go as far as the offensive line, which has three new starters along with Andrew Whitworth moving to left tackle. Smith’s impact will be felt more on the run game since Benson likes to run to the right side.

To read our previous Ask the Expert on the New York Giants with Tom Rock of New York Newsday, click here.

This article is also featured on www.rotoprofessor.com/football

 

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