NFL Rookie Head Coaches: Making the Grade in 2009?

Last season saw the success of two franchises that had struggled in 2007, the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. The two teams ended their the 2008 seasons with an 11-5 record and came in second in their respective divisions.

Both teams earned a berth to the playoffs.

Both teams were also led by rookie head coaches.

Now in their second years, Falcons’ head coach Mike Smith and Ravens’ head coach John Harbaugh are headed in the right direction, and both can easily follow up last year’s success with yet another run at the postseason.

This season, many owners and general managers have taken a liking to the idea of fresh minds in the locker room—young blood motivating young blood.

Let’s take a look into all the new first-time head coaches that are being handed the reins of their respective teams and see how each hope to fare.

Just for the sake of discussion, I will be mentioning each coach’s win-loss average between their former team and their new team. The new coaches were all coordinators and played a heavy hand in the records of their team.

In the simplest of worlds, it would be apparent that the former team’s win-loss record combined with the win-loss record of the coach’s new team would indicate how successful the new team would be.

Since it’s obviously not so simple, I will follow each commentary with my prediction on how each coach will perform.

Without further ado, here are my thoughts.

 

 

Jim Caldwell (Indianapolis Colts)

As Caldwell’s team was the Colts last year, I am skipping the averages for him.

Caldwell has the enviable task of taking over a high-octane defense predicated on speed.

Oh, and he gets Peyton Manning. How could I almost forget?

After a shaky start to the 2008 season left the Colts with more questions than answers, Manning helped the team rise from the ashes to go on a nine-game winning streak and post a 12-4 record.

But how will the team respond now that holy man Tony Dungy has left the office?

Caldwell has been in the team’s coaching system for several years. He’s been the quarterbacks’ coach since his arrival in 2002, and was the assistant coach last season. So, there’s not much that he needs to learn in terms of the team and the systems he’ll be running on offense.

One has to wonder though, if the offensive-minded Caldwell will know how to run the Colts’ defense. The Tampa-2 scheme isn’t the easiest one to coach, especially to a defense as unique as the Colts, which is almost entirely predicated on speed.

My Prediction: While there may be another shaky start in the future for the Colts, I wouldn’t expect them to flounder any further than they did last year before getting in a rhythm and winning some ball games.

Can they overcome the loss of so many key coordinators, though? The very worst I expect from the Colts this coming season is 10-6. However, their ceiling isn’t as high as usual because of so many key departures, so at best I’d give them 12-4.

Average that out to 11-5, and there’s my prediction.

Todd Haley (Kansas City Chiefs)

From the Parcells coaching tree comes the offensive mastermind behind the Arizona Cardinals’ explosive attack last season.

He definitely got his coaching style from the Big Tuna—Haley’s disciples in Kansas City are already groaning about tough practices. Of course, any practice will seem tough when you’re used to Herm Edwards being the coach of brotherly love.

The Chiefs picked up former lifelong pine-rider Matt Cassel to do the job for them in Kansas City after last season’s impressive showing garnered him a franchise tag from his former team, the New England Patriots.

Although Haley doesn’t have the same plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal as he did in Arizona (and likewise can be said for Cassel and New England). On paper, this seems like a match made in heaven. The two can put their heads together to come up with some original ideas for what has been a lackluster offensive attack for the past few seasons.

As with Caldwell, it remains to be seen whether Haley’s mindset is in the right place to help run the defense. But the exodus of former Arizona coordinators also brought defensive-minded Clancy Pendergast to the fold, so the two are each working with someone they know and trust.

Needless to say, NFL fans will have their eye on the Chiefs this season.

My Prediction: As with any team that’s as abominable as the Chiefs were last season, it’s not always a given that there will be improvements. The performance of Matt Cassel is still a question mark, as he will be without several key weapons.

However, Todd Haley is a good coach with the right work-hard mentality for this team. I could see the Chiefs improving to 6-10 this season, but not too far beyond that. The rebuilding process of this team remains a work in progress.

 

 

Rex Ryan (New York Jets)

The former Baltimore Ravens coordinator used a stingy defense to help lead his team to an 11-5 record, and takes the reigns of a 9-7 team to bring his average to 10-6.

This guy’s got “New Yorker” written all over him.

The way he’s been talking, he clearly doesn’t care what other people think about him.

He also has a borderline-cocky confidence in his squad that has already instilled new hope for Jets fans whose trials and tribulations with the ho-hum Eric Mangini got them nowhere.

He’s seemingly reveled in ruffling feathers, but has the squad to back up his talk. Defensive All-Stars like Darrelle Revis, Kris Jenkins, Kerry Rhodes, Bart Scott, and even Vernon Gholston (who has caught flack as a “workout wonder”) all fit the hard-nosed mentality of the man who led one of the AFC North’s top defenses for nearly a decade.

With the Patriots and the ash-arisen Miami Dolphins providing plenty of competition, things won’t be easy for Rex Ryan, but you can guarantee that they’ll be interesting.

My Prediction: Rex Ryan has the right mentality for this team, which has been built to succeed on defense and in the running game. I could easily see the Jets posting a 10-6 record, scoring one more win than last season, and fighting for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs.

Josh McDaniels (Denver Broncos)

McDaniels’ record between his former team, the New England Patriots, and his new team, the Denver Broncos, stands at 10-6.

His past experience may not matter in the least, though. It’s safe to say that McDaniels may not have picked up the coaching prowess from Bill Belichick.

With such a powerful offense last season, it looked as though the cupboards had been left fully stocked with the proverbial “groceries” necessary for an offensive powerhouse.

McDaniels came in, and nearly turned the entire place upside down. Though he left the strongest point of the team—the offensive line—intact, the shipment of Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler didn’t come without its fair share of controversy.

Now, with his “franchise” quarterback in Kyle Orton and a future All-Star in Knowshon Moreno, the Broncos’ offense will be under some adjustments, but could still prevail through the eye of the storm.

My Prediction: McDaniels is an offense guy, so it’s not surprising that he didn’t make any drastic changes to a defense that was dismal in every phase of the game last year. I would expect more of the same from the Broncos—a lot of points on both sides of the ball.

I foresee them either holding steady at 8-8, or dropping off slightly to 7-9 this coming year. McDaniels’ offense isn’t easy to grasp, and their defense hasn’t improved at all.

 

 

Steve Spagnuolo (St. Louis Rams)

Spagnuolo’s average win-loss record from his former team and his new team is 7-9. An NFC-best 12-4 record for the New York Giants is hampered by the 2-14 record of the second-worst team in the league, the St. Louis Rams.

Spagnuolo is a defensive-minded coach who comes into St. Louis with barely any defensive talent.

They have last year’s first-round pick, defensive end Chris Long. He only racked up four sacks last season, but Spagnuolo has experience in developing his pass rushers—look no further than Osi Umenyiora for a pass rushing product of Spagnuolo.

He also has something he lacked in New York—a consistent over-the-top coverage safety. OJ Atogwe has certainly established himself as a threat in the passing game, as noted in my breakdown of the NFC West’s top defensive players.

The former defensive coordinator brings his 4-3 “fire blitz” package to the Rams, who have been dull on defense to say the least. If Spagnuolo’s blitz packages can put enough pressure on the quarterback, Atogwe could even improve on his performances from the past three seasons.

A frenzy of improvement across the board isn’t out of the question for the Rams. It would be hard to do much worse, right?

My Prediction: Spagnuolo’s presence alone will improve the much-maligned defense, and with his strength on defense, he’ll want to pound the ball on offense. This formula has been the model of success for countless franchises over the years.

I’m going to be very bold here and say that the Rams could surprise people with a 9-7 record. They have scattered talent on offense, and Spagnuolo will know how to maximize his talent on defense.

Regardless of their record, expect a great deal of improvement from the Rams this year.

Raheem Morris (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

It’s tough to say that any coach is an improvement over Jon Gruden, whose history for building championship teams is well documented.

Morris’ task is enviable, however, as he is handed quite the talented troop of players. His giant leap through the ranks of the coaching system should serve as a testament to the Glazer’s confidence in him as a leader.

He coached the secondary for two seasons before his promotion. They weren’t that impressive in 2007, collecting only 16 interceptions in a season that the second most interceptions league-wide this decade (534—the most was 538 in 2003). Last season, though, they collected 22 interceptions, good for the fifth ranking in the league in that category.

The Buccaneers drafted quarterback Josh Freeman, marking the first time they’ve drafted a quarterback in the first round since 1994, when they selected Trent Dilfer with the sixth overall pick.

Morris’ defensive mentality will be implemented to Monte Kiffin’s years-old scheme, which has proven successful for the Bucs since its inception. Although I expect to see a bit more of the same, the defense will definitely have Morris’ own personal twist to it, which may or may not be a good thing.

It will be interesting to see how Morris picks up from where Gruden left off, but the pieces are certainly in place for him to be a success.

My Prediction: With this being a huge step up for Morris, and likewise Josh Freeman’s first year, it’s tough to say where the Bucs will land with any sort of certainty, especially considering their December skid last year.

Expect 8-8 from the team that has failed to show much consistency over the past four years.

 

 

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions)

The Titans’ league-leading 13-3 record was aided by the defensive genius of Schwartz, but the dismal 0-16 record of his new team drags his rounded average down to 7-9.

The sad bit of it is, even if Jim Schwartz leads the Lions to an 8-8 record this coming season, he could be up for Coach of the Year.

And there’s only one direction you can go from the ground—up.

With all that being said, there are just too many factors to Schwartz’s success to weigh them all together. The production he gets from the quarterback will be vital, as always, but the defense will have to ramp things up a bit. Under the tutelage of Schwartz, that seems more likelihood than just a possibility.

The selection of Brandon Pettigrew gives the Lions a tight end who is exceptional both as a pass-catcher and a run-blocker, both of which will be perfect for an offense that plans to be predicated on the run while incumbent franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford gets his legs under him from under center.

Of course, there is the looming presence of Megatron—Calvin Johnson, whose statistical production failed to decline at all last season, despite three different starting quarterbacks over the course of the season.

The presence of Johnson could put a damper on my “run-first” theory, but that may not be such a bad thing for Detroit, whose success on offense was largely predicated on the production of Johnson last season.

But this man is all about the defense, and he could maximize the Lions who are already built on a 4-3 scheme, which is what he built in Tennessee.

Dewayne White was the only excelling player on the defensive line last season. Cory Redding is capable of production, but simply failed to do anything.

The linebackers he has, which are extremely important in a 4-3 defense, all look to be efficient in all phases of the game. With returning youngster Ernie Sims, and the additions of veterans Julian Peterson (OLB, Seattle Seahawks) and Larry Foote (MLB, Pittsburgh Steelers) figure to pose a threat all season long if they can avoid injuries.

My Prediction: Although the Lions have floundered in futility for years on end, the Millen era is gone, and the Schwartz era has been ushered in. With that comes a fresh mentality of hard-nosed defense.

The Lions will improve this season (thank you, Captain Obvious) and should end up with a 6-10 record at the very least. A lot of their losses last season were by seven points or less, and I would not be surprised to see them break even at 8-8,

But, hey, if the 1-15 Dolphins can improve to 11-5 in just one season, nothing’s impossible.

Puttin’ on the Blitz: The NFC East’s Top Defensive Players

Part two of my series takes us to what has been one of the most competitive divisions in football—the NFC East.

This division may be one of the most strong defensively, even more than the stifling defenses in the AFC North.

All of my selections are pass rushers, either lining up with their hand in the ground as a lineman, or as an outside linebacker. Interestingly enough, the Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all ranked within the top six in group sacks last season.

The Giants recently won a Super Bowl, and just last year they held the NFC’s best record. They were disappointingly bounced out of the playoffs in their first matchup against the division rival Eagles. Their defense was dealt a huge blow by the departure of defensive draftsman Steve Spagnuolo, but their personnel still figures to be one of the most talented groups in football.

The Cowboys led the league last season in sacks, and actually gained a lot of ground once Wade Phillips took over the defensive play-calling duties. They have plenty of room for improvement, but look to expand on their progress from last season and dominate the division.

The Eagles made it all the way to the NFC Championship game, only to lose in dramatic fashion to the Cardinals. Their defense was stifling against the run, allowing a paltry 3.5 yards per carry and a total 1,476 yards on the ground all season. The defense may be without the aide of its star signal caller, Jimmy Johnson, which could drastically effect a defense playing without the greatest talent in the league.

The Redskins acquired free agent defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth after a huge skid ended their season at an unremarkable 8-8 record after a 6-2 start. I’ve mentioned the dismal defensive stats down the stretch—last season they gave up more than 20 points in five of their last eight games, after allowing 20+ points only twice in their first eight. Haynesworth figures to help the defense improve on last year’s totals, but he will need the help of the players around him to make an impact.

Here’s my rankings of the top five defensive players in the NFC East.

The NFL’s Top Five Defensemen by Division: AFC East

I am starting a new eight-part segment on the top five defensive players in each division, doing one division per week leading up to the regular season.

The AFC East is a division that has seen a lot of improvement on the defensive side of the ball in the past few seasons, but what other choice was there? With teams gearing up to face the New England Patriots twice a year, there can never be enough emphasis on a stingy defense.

Even the Dolphins, who lack a game-breaking play maker on defense, made strides toward improving their defense last season, when they improved from having the league’s 23rd overall defense to 15th.

The Jets defense improved slightly last year, despite making many free agent additions to their roster. With the aide of new head coach Rex Ryan, they should get the maximum potential out of their starters this year.

The Bills defense has been a basement dweller for years now, but leaped to 14th overall in defensive rankings for yards allowed last year, though they still ranked fourth-worst against the pass.

The Patriots defense had been a staple of the franchise for a decade, but has recently seen its share of struggles in the red zone. Clearly, Belichick doesn’t approve.

Without further ado, here are my opinions on the top five defensive players in the AFC East.

Top Five Free Agent Signings of the 2009 NFL Offseason

Save for the free agent explosion that was the 320-pound Albert Haynesworth signing a $100 million contract with the Washington Redskins, this season was a bit quieter in terms of free agent signings than years past.

The current state of limbo of the collective bargaining agreement could have a lot to do with that (though it didn’t seem to bother the ‘Skins any, so that’s up for debate).

Still, there are a few free agent signings that made a big splash, and I’m setting out to rank the five that I think are the most significant in terms of improving the team.

Top Five Free Agent Signings of the 2009 NFL Offseason

Save for the free agent explosion that was the 320-pound Albert Haynesworth signing a $100 million contract with the Washington Redskins, this season was a bit quieter in terms of free agent signings than years past.

The current state of limbo of the collective bargaining agreement could have a lot to do with that (though it didn’t seem to bother the ‘Skins any, so that’s up for debate).

Still, there are a few free agent signings that made a big splash, and I’m setting out to rank the five that I think are the most significant in terms of improving the team.

Matt Cassel: The Cure to Kansas City Misery?

Last year, quarterback Matt Cassel did the unlikely.

Let’s rewind to his college years at the University of Southern California first.

Cassel, who hadn’t started a game since high school, spent his entire college career as the second in line to Heisman Trophy winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.

On draft day in 2005, it didn’t appear as though Cassel’s name would be called, but he breathed a sigh of relief when his name was called in the seventh round, 230th overall. To make matters worse, his entire life seemed headed for the bench, as he had been drafted by the New England Patriots, home of All-Everything quarterback Tom Brady.

For three seasons, Matt Cassel watched from his usual spot on the bench, ready to jump at the opportunity to play. Then, the unthinkable happened.

Brady went down in Week 1 with an injury that sidelined him for all of last season season. Cassel had the unenviable task of taking the reins of a ship that set sail for a 19-0 record in 2007, only to be set off course by the gale force winds of the New York Giants’ pass rush.

In he stepped, and slowly but surely he grew into a reliable and consistent starter, posting impressive stat lines of 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns to go along with 270 yards rushing and 2 rushing scores.

With questions of Brady’s rehab abound, the Patriots did the only thing they could do—they put the franchise tag on Cassel.

Then finally, the answer became vividly clear—Brady would be back. Instead of putting Cassel back on the bench as an insurance policy, the Patriots dealt him along with veteran linebacker Mike Vrabel to the Kansas City Chiefs for a second round draft pick in 2009’s NFL Draft.

How ironic, that Cassel stepped in for the Patriots against the Kansas City Chiefs, and not more than six months later found himself suited up in red, white, and yellow?

No matter, though; now, Matt Cassel has a franchise to call his own, his home. For the first time in his life, he is expected to start a full regular season. One question remains—is he ready?

One would think that the solid mentoring he received from former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would’ve prepared him for life as a starter, but Cassel faces a much different environment in Kansas City.

As such, there are a lot of questions that remain unanswered leading into the 2009 season.

San Diego Chargers: State of the Franchise—2009

Last year’s San Diego Chargers started off terribly, and their record stood at 4-8 with just four games left to play.

The Denver Broncos, whose record stood at 8-5 in Week 14, completed a monumental collapse to become the first team to lose a division with a three-game lead with just three weeks left to play.

They were the phoenix, who rose from the ashes to reclaim their AFC West title for the third straight season.

A recent hot button topic has been whether the Chargers’ window for Super Bowl contention is beginning to close; even with Phillip Rivers playing at a Pro Bowl caliber, they were still only a .500 team. LaDainian Tomlinson’s performance dropped off drastically last season, and many wonder if Darren Sproles can be a feature back.

But the Chargers’ defense was without their all-star pass rusher, outside linebacker Shawne Merriman. If he can return to form, he can help to drastically improve a defense that ranked a dismal 24th in the league in sacks and second to last in passing yardage allowed.

They also drafted Larry English, a great prospect at outside linebacker, who can be a situational and rotational pass rusher.

While questions about Norv Turner’s leadership abilities have never quite been silenced (there’s even a fan blog with the sole intent and purpose of getting Turner fired), no one can question the drastic turnaround the Chargers made last season to make the playoffs.

Turner has helped the team post a remarkable 8-0 mark he has posted in December in his two seasons as their head coach.

 

Offense

Last season was considered a down year for LaDainian Tomlinson. Injuries hampered his production and gave way to inconsistency throughout the year, and he collected a “meager” 1,536 yards from scrimmage and 12 total touchdowns.

But hey, it’s tough to have a better season than his record-setter in 2006, where he had 2,323 yards from scrimmage and set the single-season record for total touchdowns with 31.

Although it’s safe to say that Tomlinson’s best years are behind him, there’s no question that the future holds a bright horizon for franchise quarterback Phillip Rivers, who posted a league-best quarterback rating of 105.5 last season.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Rivers has the right tools to lead his team to victory on the strength of his arm, though it doesn’t hurt to have a feature back like Tomlinson who excels at catching passes out of the backfield and pass-blocking.

It also doesn’t hurt to have tight end Antonio Gates, who posted respectable numbers last season despite also being slowed down by an injury early in the season. With him back at full health, the options open right back up for Rivers and the offense.

Despite posting only 59 catches last season, Vincent Jackson picked up a whopping 1,098 yards. His seven receiving touchdowns last season were second only to Gates’ eight. At 6’ and forever,” with the amazing athleticism he has displayed, Jackson has slowly but surely molded into the top-flight receiver the Chargers always thought he could be when they drafted him in the second round in 2005.

Of course, it all starts with the monstrous offensive line the Chargers have built over the years. Center Nick Hardwick and guard Kris Dielman have been landmarks of the Chargers’ between-the-tackles running game for years, and have held their own in pass blocking situations to afford Rivers time to throw.

Defense

Shawne Merriman is back.

Those four words mean a drastic turnaround for a dismal defensive performance last season. The majority of San Diego’s problems stemmed from their utter inability to rush the passer or create any kind of pressure.

If Merriman’s return isn’t enough, or if he’s not his old self after major knee surgery sidelined him last season, first-round draft pick Larry English should factor in nicely and make a huge difference for a team that ranked 24th in sack output last season.

Cornerback Antonio Cromartie gathered a whopping ten interceptions in 2007, but last season Cromartie grabbed a measly two.

Pressure on the quarterback should result in more turnovers, as evidenced by the 2007 version of their squad which ranked first in turnovers with 48, 30 of those being interceptions. Last season, they ranked 11th in interceptions and an abominable 17th in total turnovers.

Of course, the pressure of creating pressure on the quarterback can’t fall squarely on the shoulders of Merriman; other players must step up as well. Defensive tackle Jamal Williams remains an anchor on the front line, despite age and injury.  

It’s hard to tell how much of a difference one player will make to a squad, but the absence of Merriman last season caused the defense to drop from the fifth overall ranking to 15^th in just one year.

Chances of Winning This Year

The Chargers’ shot at making another trip to the playoffs this year is strengthened by the fact that they’re in such a historically weak division.

They also gave another perfect showing in December of 2008, despite starting off their season at a miserable 4-8. If they can ride that momentum into 2009, they could be a force to contend with all season long.

The problem, however, will be riding that momentum; despite a perfect showing in December of the 2007 season, the Chargers fell flat for the first few weeks of 2008, losing a few last-minute shockers.

Could it be that Norv Turner really doesn’t practice the two-minute drill, as claimed by the site that wants him fired? If this is the case, it showed in their games, and this is an area that will sorely need improvement going into the 2009 season.

Especially come playoff time.

Let’s face it; the Chargers have been the bugaboo for the Colts in the playoffs for the past few seasons, but they won’t get to advance at their expense every year, and they have fallen flat in post-season match-ups with other AFC elites like the Steelers and Patriots.

The offense is coming into its own, as evidenced by Phillip Rivers’ spectacular performance all season long last year.

However, as exposed against the Steelers in the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs, Darren Sproles can’t carry the team on his legs alone, and both he and Rivers will need LaDainian Tomlinson to stay injury-free to keep a multi-dimensional attack in tact.

More or less, the Chargers need to gain momentum and keep it sustained for the duration of the season in order to prevent themselves from falling flat in the fall for a third straight season.

Chances of Winning In The Future

The future is bright for their offensive line. Offensive tackle Marcus McNeill has come on strong since his rookie year in 2006, and former sixth round pick Jeromey Clary started all 16 games last season at right tackle.

By drafting Louis Vasquez in the third round of the 2009 draft, the Chargers assured themselves a security blanket in the event that either of their starting guards is injured, or perhaps he could fill the void left by recently departed Mike Goff.

They also have a lot of bright spots on defense, especially at linebacker, with Shawne Merriman yet to enter his prime, and a great developmental prospect in 2008 first round pick Larry English.

They’ve had problems in the past with their secondary, but a strong pass rush has proven effective for them in generating turnovers. Antonio Cromartie will be fed plenty of interceptions by quarterbacks feeling the pressure of Merriman, English, and/or Shaun Phillips next season.

With last year’s first round pick Antoine Cason developing nicely as a nickel cornerback, he could see more time as a starter next season, much like Antonio Cromartie in his sophomore year, and could make a much bigger impact as a result.

Minnesota Vikings: State of the Franchise—2009

The Minnesota Vikings have made a remarkable turnaround from just two seasons ago, where they were so bad they had the seventh overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft.

They used that pick on Adrian Peterson, and have ridden the running back straight to success in the mediocre NFC North.

In 2008, they traded their first round pick combined with a few other picks to go get Jared Allen. That acquisition paid dividends immediately, in the form of a team-leading 14.5 sacks and three forced fumbles.

They were beaten on their home turf by the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round, marking the second consecutive time the Eagles have bounced the Vikings from the playoffs.

They have a lot to prove this coming season; perhaps, for starters, that last year wasn’t a fluke, and that they can win the division more than just once.

If they pick up Brett Favre, he’ll have something to prove, too—that Ted Thompson made a mistake.

 

Offense

The offense is predicated on the performance of Adrian Peterson, who could make an even bigger impact with defenses playing more honestly; after all, Brett Favre will be under center for the Vikings in 2009.

Even if that doesn’t prove to be the case (and I’ve gone on record as saying I hope he stays retired), Peterson has helped the Vikings turn around from the 16th overall rushing offense, to first in nearly every category in 2007, and then fifth overall in 2008.

AP averaged a red hot 5.6 yards per carry average in his rookie season, in which he won the Rookie of the Year award.

But sports analysts have said this time and time again: it all starts with the offensive line. And the Vikings’ front line is notoriously stacked.

With beasts Bryant McKinnie and perennial All-Pro Steve Hutchinson anchoring the left side of the line, they’ve opened up massive holes for Peterson to break long gains. Their right side hasn’t been as effective, but second-round pick Phil Loadholt out of Oklahoma could contribute early and often as a right tackle in the Vikings’ power-based running game.

Center Matt Birk left the team as a free agent, and the Vikings showed confidence in their current prospects at the position by failing to draft a new center or to pick one up in free agency. Their current top option, John Sullivan, played in every game last season and could develop into a stud down the road.

What about the whole new dimension being brought to the offense by Florida wide receiver Percy Harvin? Of course, the notorious speed of Harvin would be complemented extremely well by the arm of the 40-year-old veteran Favre. 

Harvin also adds versatility with his arm and can line up in the backfield in a wildcat formation. The Vikings didn’t feature this formation last year, but if they develop it in practice, they could be deadly from the single-wing.

Bernard Berrian also has blazing speed, and could act as a mentor for Harvin; Berrian was once tagged an unpolished speedster with below-average route-running skills, just like Harvin has been by some of his doubters.

The threat of two deep options in their offense helps to open up the box for Adrian Peterson; likewise, the strength of their running game forces opposing defenses to play the run honestly with at least six defenders in the box.

They also have some nice developmental prospects at receiver in Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice, both of whom have come on strong at different points for Minnesota.

If they can polish their mistakes and hone their skills, they could become very viable options for the passing attack, opening up even more lanes for “All Day”.

But let’s not forget the most undervalued position on offense—tight end. Visanthe Shiancoe is stellar in the run-blocking game, but he’s a duel threat as a great receiving tight end as well.

With all of these options in the passing game, and no legitimate or established NFL quarterback to throw them the ball, this seems to be where Favre would fit in nicely. Though I think Favre would eventually grow tired yet again and be hampered by his beleaguered arm, I do contest that he would be a good fit in the Vikings offense.

 

Defense

The “Williams Wall” may come tumblin’ down for the first few games of the season, but I would anticipate them to jump right back into form.

Defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams have been a fixture in the Vikings defense for years, and have ranked first in total rushing yardage allowed for three straight seasons. Both have made the Pro Bowl all three of those years.

Their group of linebackers is known more for strength and making sure tackles than for speed and rushing the passer, as is usually the case in a 4-3 defense. After injury brought his 2008 season to a screeching halt, the return of E.J. Henderson to the lineup could mean even better things for their top-flight run defense.

Last year, in an effort to bolster their passing defense, they went and grabbed defensive end Jared Allen from the Kansas City Chiefs in a trade. He contributed immediately at right end, registering 14.5 sacks last season along with three forced fumbles and two safeties.

Despite ranking fourth in sacks (45), they ranked in the bottom half of the league in nearly every other passing defense category.

Their long-standing deficiency in passing defense has made opposing offenses take notice, and they now exploit the Vikings’ weakness in the secondary. Opposing offenses attempted 530 collective passes (good for 11th in the league) against only 371 running plays (31st), so the passing game is a huge area of concern for the Vikings.

They drafted third-round cornerback prospect Asher Allen out of Georgia, and took the necessary measures to lock up Cedric Griffin with a three-year contract extension. Antoine Winfield has been a fixture in their defense for years.

But will that be enough? They failed to make any major additions to their secondary, despite the notorious weakness they show against the passing game. They ranked 24th in the league in interceptions with only 12, four of which came from two players – the aforementioned Griffin and Winfield.

However, with pass rushers like Kevin Williams, Allen, and Chad Greenway swarming the opposing quarterback, perhaps the strength of their front seven can mask their weaknesses in the secondary.

At least, that’s probably what Childress is banking on.

 

Chances of Winning This Year

With the wacky way in which the NFC North has jumped back and forth between different teams over the past few seasons (a different team has finished first in the past three seasons), don’t think that the Vikings can write their ticket to the playoffs based solely on their performance last year.

The consistent and error-proof play they got from quarterback Gus Frerotte will need to be duplicated by whoever is under center for the Vikings this coming year, whether that be Tarvaris Jackson, Sage Rosenfels, or Favre.

The question is, can any of those three guys provide that kind of quarterbacking for a full 16-game season?

In their playoff loss, Jackson completed only 42.8 percent of his passes and threw an interception.

Meanwhile, their defense gave up 300 yards to Donovan McNabb, who completed 67.6-percent of his passes; all of this, despite Jared Allen sacking him twice.

It seems that no matter how heavy the pass rush is, their secondary will have to make marked improvements across the board to become Super Bowl contenders, instead of pretenders.

Their personnel are talented; they just need to play up to their potential.

 

Chances of Winning in the Future

The Vikings have managed to stay relatively young at all the key positions in their defense.

Pat Williams, Winfield, and Hutchinson aren’t getting any younger, but I wouldn’t expect their performance to diminish too heavily this season compared to last (if it diminishes at all).

Key cogs like Kevin Williams (28), Henderson (28), Chad Greenway (27), Cedric Griffin (26), and of course Adrian Peterson (24) are still in their youth and/or their prime, and have a long time to go as heavy contributors to the team.

If the Vikings continue to build through the draft wisely as they have in the recent past (Sam Bradford?), they can seriously improve their chances of contending down the road.

It’s clear the Vikings still have some holes in their defense, particularly in the secondary, and one glaring hole on offense at quarterback.  But if they can continue to make the right offseason moves for a few more years, they can prime themselves to be contenders down the road a couple of years.

The players they will lose due to age, though they are major contributors, can be replaced (though replacing a perpetual Pro Bowl guard who is literally the building block of your running game may be easier said than done.)

I’m not sure that the Vikings will contend for the Super Bowl this season, but in the weak NFC North, they can at least contend for the top spot in their division.

Three Good Reasons Why Brett Favre Should Stay Retired

I know what you’re probably thinking, and those three girls are not the three reasons why Brett Favre should stay retired.

As is the case every year, a media circus has swarmed around one burning question – will Brett Favre return to the NFL for one* more year?

*Words apparently don’t mean much to Favre, who has retired twice and pondered a comeback both times; he always leaves the door propped open just enough to keep us guessing, though.

As many NFL experts have discussed over the past few weeks and months, there’s really nothing left for Favre to prove; he won a Super Bowl, he’s won three MVPs, and holds nearly every major passing record in the book.

This time, his comeback seems to have taken on a new dimension – it’s no longer “for love of the game” as it always has been in the past (although even that is up for debate).

This time, Favre has a vendetta against his old team, and only wants to return to make a statement.

I don’t know who to blame more heavily; Brett Favre for making this such a ludicrous and ridiculous event year after year, or the media for continually feeding the attention-hungry beast that is Favre’s ego.

Quite frankly (and I think I am speaking for most football fans here), I’m sick of it, and I just wish he’d stay retired.

Here’s a list of a few good reasons why Brett Favre shouldn’t come back.

Denver Broncos: State of the Franchise–2009

With that lanyard swinging and the hoodie dangling from his shoulders, new Denver Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels looks like the spitting image of his mentor Bill Belichick. Perhaps he should have paid more attention to the team management talk, rather than the fashion statement conversations.

McDaniels was known for his offensive genius in engineering the highest-scoring offense in NFL history, as well as nurturing the young and inexperienced Matt Cassel into a viable starter.

Apparently, his genius applies to the playbooks and not to the management of a team.

Only weeks after his arrival in Denver, he began trying to court the Patriots for Matt Cassel. The shockwaves of Jay Cutler’s fury were felt in the media for a month and then some, until he was finally traded to Chicago.

Now, McDaniels will once again get to prove his ability as a coordinator in an offense that lacks a franchise quarterback, a stable offensive line, and a consistent/proven running back.

 

The Offense

According to Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton is the No. 1 quarterback as of right now, but that job is still up for grabs to lifetime pine-rider Chris Simms.

“I promise you this: the best quarterback we have on our roster will be starting on September 13th in Cincinatti. I don’t know who that’s going to be, but as of right now that’s Kyle,” said McDaniels recently.

Orton was a statistical surprise in Chicago for the first seven weeks of the 2008 season (prior to his knee injury), completing an average of 62.2% of his passes and throwing for 1,669 yards. On that pace, he would have gone over 3,500 yards with no viable No .1 receiving option.

Now, with McDaniels’ offensive wizardry and a more distinguished group of targets, Orton hopes to have even more success.

He will need to get good, or even great, protection from the offensive line to survive. Though Jay Cutler was only sacked 11 times last year, he is a much more mobile quarterback than Orton, whose mobility may even be decreased following the knee injury.

In terms of the running game, they still managed to produce respectable numbers despite being near the bottom of the league in total rushing attempts, a product of their pass-happy offense last year.

At an average of 4.8 yards per carry and with 15 total rushing touchdowns, the Broncos produced a legitimate running game even through inconsistency at the position. They started five different running backs over the course of last season, and by the end of the season they had placed six on injured reserve.

After taking Knowshon Moreno in the first round of the 2009 draft and picking up former Patriots running back Lamont Jordan, McDaniels has addressed the strength and durability issue at running back.

But did they do too much with their running game and not enough anywhere else?

Though many of their running backs were injured last season, they failed to address more pressing issues in the trenches, particularly along the offensive line.

Their list of starters last season possesses unheralded (and unknown) names like Ben Hamilton, Chris Kuper, Ryan Harris, and Ryan Clady. Their center, Casey Wiegmann, was one of three Pro Bowlers from last season’s offensive squad. The other two were Brandon Marshall, and of course, Jay Cutler.

How did McDaniels choose to address this? They took a few late-round fliers on Iowa guard Seth Olsen, who has potential no doubt, but is hardly the type of guy who can be stuck in the starting line-up on day one.

Perhaps he’s hoping that he can develop the talent much like New England did with their offensive line, only one of whom was a first-round draft pick (Logan Mankins).

I would anticipate a spread-based attack from the Denver Broncos, and I would expect McDaniels to employ a lot of the offensive strategies he used in New England; a lot of short dump passes and slants to Eddie Royal, a speedy Kevin Faulk-like running back in Moreno, who has experience in a pro-style offense and can catch passes out of the backfield.

 

The Defense

The production of the defense was downright abominable last season. They ranked 30th overall in yards allowed and 29th overall in points allowed.

A lot of this has been attributed to a lack of pressure up front. They only generated 26 sacks, the eighth lowest total in the league. They drafted Tennessee’s Robert Ayers in the first round, an outside linebacker who came on strong over his last two seasons with seven sacks and nearly 100 tackles.

Other than that, they did nothing to bolster their pass rush. They had draft picks in every round, and failed to use a single one of them on a defensive lineman.

Their secondary, which featured the highly regarded names of Champ Bailey and Dre Bly, generated only generated six interceptions. It was second lowest in the league only to the 0-and-16 Detroit Lions. They addressed this issue by picking up two defensive backs in the second round, Alphonso Smith and Darcel McBath.

Alphonso Smith is more of a cover corner, but he’s only 5’9”, and at that stature may never become a true shutdown corner; although he could be a good option as a nickel corner. McBath, on the other hand, isn’t as great in coverage, but he converted from corner and has great range, making him a good developmental prospect at safety.

But how can they expect to generate any interceptions with the front seven failing to create any pressure?

The Broncos woeful miseries in the running game are well-documented; they allowed 2,337 yards and 26 touchdowns, good for third worst in the league. With so many weaknesses on defense, the failure to address most of those spots could come back to haunt them.

Josh McDaniels must really be hoping that his defense can drastically turn their dismal performance from last season around. How they hope to do that without any drastic improvements in personnel remains to be seen.

 

Chances of Winning This Year

It’s hard to say exactly how good of a chance the Denver Broncos have in the 2009 season. In such a historically weak division of the AFC West, and in this day and age of free agency, it’s anyone’s ball game (though it’s hard to imagine the Raiders winning, isn’t it?)

Offensively, they have a handful of weapons; Eddie Royal came on strong in his rookie year, Brandon Marshall has continued to develop despite off-field issues, Tony Scheffler continues to create mismatches for opposing linebackers, and the presence of rookie Knowshon Moreno could add a whole new dimension to the offense.

But who will be starting at quarterback? And more importantly, how will they perform?

With two inconsistent quarterbacks in Kyle Orton and Chris Simms, the Broncos have taken a drastic turn from a certain future with franchise quarterback Jay Cutler to a former Rex Grossman back-up, and a guy who hasn’t started a meaningful game in almost three years.

As far as the quarterbacking is concerned, it seems McDaniels is going to rely on his ability to mold a quarterback to fit his system, as he did with Matt Cassel last year in New England.

Even if their offense produces spectacularly like they did last season, it will all mean nothing if Denver’s porous defense continues to perform as poorly as they did in 2008. With such dismal play all season long, and no real improvements in terms of personnel, they’ll be hard-pressed to turn things around.

But let’s not count them out; they are professional athletes, and they get paid to play the sport for a reason: they’re pretty good at it. It may just take a bit more overachieving on their part to create an impact, but the Broncos could do it in 2009.

 

Chances of Winning In The Future

We know the short-term success of Josh McDaniels’ ability as a tutor; he took lifetime bench-boy Matt Cassel, and made him into a surefire starter. 

The team has become a backlog of youth over the past few years. They helped their depth issues at a few key roster spots in the draft, especially in the secondary, where they selected three prospective rookies.

I’ve used a lot of adjectives for Denver’s defense, from dismal to abominable, but regardless of how their defense is described, it was downright disappointing for Denver fans from beginning to bitter end last season.

Quite frankly, it’s not a problem that could have been fixed all at once anyway; that many holes on one side of the ball can’t be upgraded or improved upon in one off-season. So they did what any organization would do: draft the best players they think are available and hope for the best.

The success of the Denver Broncos franchise relies largely on the teams ability to develop their young talent.

With so much potential talent on their team, good coaching will breed success in the franchise for years to come.

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