Its a Bit Early, But May I Say It Now: Wow!

Julian Edelman was quick to point out that he “had a long way to go” when asked about his impressive debut last night when he suited up for the New England Patriots who took the field in Philadelphia last night to battle the Eagles.

So let me tow the humble Patriot line and say “there is a long way to go” before we can meaningfully say that the Patriots have struck gold in the 2009 draft.

OK, that said, let me now tell you what I really think.  Bill Belichick is excellence in action.  It is very interesting to watch his decision making in the rear view mirror.  Since he took the helm for Mr. Kraft we’ve seen an artist orchestrate an epic concert.

He definitely sees the forest through the trees.  He is the best football mind of our generation.  Like a world chess champion, he can see 20 moves ahead of where the board currently sits.  He can evaluate all the variables, in all their complexity, large and small, put them in a blender and come out with the perfect elixir.

This years draft class laced up for the first time last night, and its hard to be anything but impressed by the debut performances of the talent brought in this season.  His ever changing draft philosophy this year was focused on moving out of the first round, and getting many value picks to fill out a deep and experienced team with athleticism.

Looking back to previous years drafts, its easy to point to the late round gems he mined, like Tom Terrific (6th round), David Givens (7th round), Dan Koppen (5th round), Asante Samuel (4th round), Matt Cassel (6th round), Stephen Neal (undrafted wrestler), Mike Wright (7th round).

History also shows he picks as good as any in the early rounds.  Here a just a few of his successes:  Richard Seymour (1st round), Logan Mankins (1st round), Ty Warren (1st round), Vince Wilfork (1st round), Kevin Faulk (early round), Deion Branch (2nd round), Steven Gostkowski (mid rounder), Jerod Mayo (1st round).

Free agency, off season trades, and reclamation projects have also been areas where he stands above his peers:  Wes Welker (trade for 2nd rounder), Randy Moss (trade for 4th rounder), Corey Dillon (FA), Rodney Harrison (FA), Adalius Thomas (FA), Mike Vrabel (trade for middle rounder).

These examples are far from the complete list of outstanding moves he’s orchestrated.  There have been, of course, some that didn’t work out, like drafting Steve Stachelski early, who never even made it to camp.

I’m predicting a couple of  years from now, when we look back at this years draft class, I’ll be even more complementary towards Bill’s abilities to evaluate, assemble, and coach players than I am now.

Julian Edelman was extremely effective last night, likely fooling many casual fans into thinking Wes Welker had changed his number to 11.  This 7th round quarterback was unstoppable from the slot as a receiver.  He also had a 75 yard punt return for a touchdown.  And oh, by the way, he had several special team tackles on multiple coverage teams and threw several effective blocks.

This 7th rounder will be a force in his rookie year and into the future.

Ron Brace, a second rounder this year, held his ground at the defensive tackle spot and looks like he will be a solid role player this year, and future starter.

Patrick Chung was very active, made a lot of solid tackles, blocked a field goal attempt, and was a special teams standout last night.  He too will get significant time this year and clearly looks like he will excel at this level.

Darius Butler took a few lumps, but for a corner’s first time in the big leagues, he held his own and showed the athleticism that it takes to become an outstanding cornerback.

Like Logan Mankins, Sebastian Vollmer’s early selection was a ‘head scratcher’ to many so-called draft experts.  There is a long way to go before we will know if he will be an all-pro caliber talent like Mankins, but based on what I saw last night I could see him being a ten year starter and perennial pro-bowler.

Others in the class who got some playing time (Tyrone McKenzie and Brandon Tate did not play due to injury) looked solid and looked physically like they belonged on the field and could compete at this level.

Later round DT Myron Pryror got a lot of time and made some physical, stand out plays, including a sack of Mcnab.

So although there is a long way to go, it looks like a banner year for the Patriots organization.  Many talking heads will be, over the years, pointing out each week when they talk about the production of Julian Edelman, questioning how no one drafted him until the 7th round.   They will be marveling at how the Patriots were able to get Burgess for a bargain price from Oakland.   They will looking back at ‘top ten’ draft classes for teams and be talking about the 2009 Patriots draft.

 

 

Its a Bit Early, But May I Say It Now: Wow!

Julian Edelman was quick to point out that he “had a long way to go” when asked about his impressive debut last night when he suited up for the New England Patriots who took the field in Philadelphia last night to battle the Eagles.

So let me tow the humble Patriot line and say “there is a long way to go” before we can meaningfully say that the Patriots have struck gold in the 2009 draft.

OK, that said, let me now tell you what I really think.  Bill Belichick is excellence in action.  It is very interesting to watch his decision making in the rear view mirror.  Since he took the helm for Mr. Kraft we’ve seen an artist orchestrate an epic concert.

He definitely sees the forest through the trees.  He is the best football mind of our generation.  Like a world chess champion, he can see 20 moves ahead of where the board currently sits.  He can evaluate all the variables, in all their complexity, large and small, put them in a blender and come out with the perfect elixir.

This years draft class laced up for the first time last night, and its hard to be anything but impressed by the debut performances of the talent brought in this season.  His ever changing draft philosophy this year was focused on moving out of the first round, and getting many value picks to fill out a deep and experienced team with athleticism.

Looking back to previous years drafts, its easy to point to the late round gems he mined, like Tom Terrific (6th round), David Givens (7th round), Dan Koppen (5th round), Asante Samuel (4th round), Matt Cassel (6th round), Stephen Neal (undrafted wrestler), Mike Wright (7th round).

History also shows he picks as good as any in the early rounds.  Here a just a few of his successes:  Richard Seymour (1st round), Logan Mankins (1st round), Ty Warren (1st round), Vince Wilfork (1st round), Kevin Faulk (early round), Deion Branch (2nd round), Steven Gostkowski (mid rounder), Jerod Mayo (1st round).

Free agency, off season trades, and reclamation projects have also been areas where he stands above his peers:  Wes Welker (trade for 2nd rounder), Randy Moss (trade for 4th rounder), Corey Dillon (FA), Rodney Harrison (FA), Adalius Thomas (FA), Mike Vrabel (trade for middle rounder).

These examples are far from the complete list of outstanding moves he’s orchestrated.  There have been, of course, some that didn’t work out, like drafting Steve Stachelski early, who never even made it to camp.

I’m predicting a couple of  years from now, when we look back at this years draft class, I’ll be even more complementary towards Bill’s abilities to evaluate, assemble, and coach players than I am now.

Julian Edelman was extremely effective last night, likely fooling many casual fans into thinking Wes Welker had changed his number to 11.  This 7th round quarterback was unstoppable from the slot as a receiver.  He also had a 75 yard punt return for a touchdown.  And oh, by the way, he had several special team tackles on multiple coverage teams and threw several effective blocks.

This 7th rounder will be a force in his rookie year and into the future.

Ron Brace, a second rounder this year, held his ground at the defensive tackle spot and looks like he will be a solid role player this year, and future starter.

Patrick Chung was very active, made a lot of solid tackles, blocked a field goal attempt, and was a special teams standout last night.  He too will get significant time this year and clearly looks like he will excel at this level.

Darius Butler took a few lumps, but for a corner’s first time in the big leagues, he held his own and showed the athleticism that it takes to become an outstanding cornerback.

Like Logan Mankins, Sebastian Vollmer’s early selection was a ‘head scratcher’ to many so-called draft experts.  There is a long way to go before we will know if he will be an all-pro caliber talent like Mankins, but based on what I saw last night I could see him being a ten year starter and perennial pro-bowler.

Others in the class who got some playing time (Tyrone McKenzie and Brandon Tate did not play due to injury) looked solid and looked physically like they belonged on the field and could compete at this level.

Later round DT Myron Pryror got a lot of time and made some physical, stand out plays, including a sack of Mcnab.

So although there is a long way to go, it looks like a banner year for the Patriots organization.  Many talking heads will be, over the years, pointing out each week when they talk about the production of Julian Edelman, questioning how no one drafted him until the 7th round.   They will be marveling at how the Patriots were able to get Burgess for a bargain price from Oakland.   They will looking back at ‘top ten’ draft classes for teams and be talking about the 2009 Patriots draft.

 

 

Saints Will Tweak Streaking Offense

In recent years I estimate the New Orleans Saints have run more than 40 percent of their plays from a three wide receiver, one tight end, one running back set (3WR/1TE/1RB).  This was a comfort zone them for good reason.  Either the team was playing catch up because of their undermanned defense, or they were sticking with their big play offense because they were so bad on short yardage third downs.

The Saints have essentially the same offensive personnel, but they need to, and will, adjust thier game plans this year.

The Saints have Gregg Williams as their defensive coordinator this year, and the team has brought in some new talent and experience to bolster the struggling secondary of last year.

In order to become more balanced, which they must to make a Superbowl run, the Saints must improve their defense dramatically.  A great catalyst to improving this defense will be for the offense to posses the ball longer during the games.

To posess the ball longer, coach Payton needs to adapt his game planning to the strengths and weaknesses of each opponent, and tone down, just a bit, the big play focus for a more steady approach.

With all the talent at the skill positions on offense, its going to be a challenge for Payton to both tone it down a bit, and to effectively utilize all his weapons.  His instincts are going to have to be sharp, so he can go with the hot hand week to week, or even quarter to quarter.

So how do the Saints posses the ball longer?  Well, they need to run the ball more effectively, get Shockey the ball and have him show up consistently, and receive the mentality and grit to consistently pick up first downs in short yardage situations by running the ball up the gut.

The Saints next favorite formation seems to be the 2WR/2TE/1RB set.  This is where I believe they need to mix it up.  Some how, the Saints need to have two and three running back sets.  

In order to commit to and develop an effective, consistent running game, the Saints need to run more plays out of multi-back sets so they can disguise their running attack.

Pierre Thomas and Heath Evans in the backfield on first and second downs, with Shockey and two wide-outs, give the offense a lot of options.  Evans would be essentially a blocking back in this scenario, but he is versatile enough to take some plays as a half-back to give some added flavor to the game plan.  

From this personnel package, the Saints can establish an inside the tackles running attack, and mix it up with a short passing game consisting of some wide-receiver screens, quick slants, and Shockey exploiting linebackers on seam routes.

Shockey will have to step it up and block a lot more.  But he has to step it up in the passing game as well.  He really needs to be a big factor this year.  He is due, and it will be fun to see him have a great year.

What about Reggie?  I know everyone is squirming in their chairs reading this because I don’t have Reggie in the game.  Think Kevin Faulk.  Reggie will be a third down back and run draws and catch short passes in space.

Also, when running in their more traditional 3WR/1TE/1RB set, that RB should be Reggie Bush.  He should go in motion to the slot, and essentially make it a 4WR set.  This puts a ton of pressure on the five linemen, yet that pressure can be neutralized by a smart, accurate quarterback.  That is what the Saints have in Brees.  He can make the quick read and hit receivers in stride, exploiting the talents of Bush and the wide outs.

The 3RB sets I referred to above would include Reggie Bush and his role again should be to go in motion and essentially become a wide-out.  This would be a variation to the two back set that I hope to see get a lot more play, and would allow Payton to satisfy his need to run creative, unconventional plays as well.

Again, as I stated in an article I wrote last week, the relatively anonymous role player, Heath Evans, I believe is a key component to transforming the Saints offense into a dynamic machine that can play wide open, or control the ball.  He can pick up first downs in short yardage situations, he can open holes for Pierre Thomas, he can pass block, and he has decent hands.  

His presence will allow Payton to have a much more flexible game plan that will at time slow the streaking offense of the Saints, but at the same time, make them more balanced, more effective, and most importantly, more capable of making the plays to win games.

New Orleans Saints Will Rise to the Top in 2009

The New Orleans Saints will represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLIV.

Is that direct enough?

I’ve stuck my neck out now.

I feel good about this, but I’ve placed calls to my insurance agent for life insurance just in case.  

As with every team, a few things need to come together this season for the Saints to meet my expectations—and for me to keep my head on my shoulders.

Ten wins is a must for a playoff birth this season, although I expect to see the Saints end up 11-5, and possibly 12-4.

That is asking a lot from a defense that has been horrible the past couple of seasons,  yet that is how things work in the NFL. Not much happens gradually. While there are teams that improve year-to-year and win consistently, more often than not a team’s successes evolve quickly.  

This is typically due to exceptional quarterback play, a bit of good luck, chemistry, and young talent.

The Saints’ season depends on quarterback Drew Brees. Brees needs to have yet another Pro Bowl caliber season for the Saints to taste success. Without a strong season for Brees, the Saints will be mediocre at best.

The “good luck” component is not something you can forecast, but life experience has shown me that superior preparation and a gritty, never-say-die attitude tips the odds in your favor.

Success starts at the top and head coach Sean Payton and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams are tireless workers who have a lot to prove.

I am confident that they will work together, complement each other, scheme effectively, and have their team ready to play each week.

The lack of chemistry is likely the weak link in this chain, and could be the reason why the Saints falls short.

Defensive end Charles Grant must serve a four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance-abuse policy and tight end Jeremy Shockey recently needed medical assistance after partying too hard.

Neither episodes bode well for team chemistry.

Team leaders must show up and work harder than everyone else, and players like Shockey and Grant must show up and find a way to overcome their selfish instincts and play team ball with a team attitude.  

The Saints have the leaders to make this happen. Brees has shown up and is leading the way and running back Reggie Bush could emerge as a leader this year.

Full back Heath Evans is a determined newcomer who has tasted victory. He has the grit and work ethic to inspire others and will be picking up first downs by grinding out short yardage in key situations. Together, this should give him credibility in the locker room.

Chemistry is a huge factor for this Saints squad and it must evolve, starting in the off-season.

In spite of these hurdles, I believe.

I believe Payton will put it all together this year. He will have a cool head in tight situations and manage the clock well. His schemes will have his offensive talent playing like an orchestra.

Williams will have full control over the defense and he will quietly blend the right talent with the right calls, allowing an otherwise average defense to excel.

I believe Brees will stay healthy, and dish the rock fast and furiously to his hungry play makers.

I believe Bush will gallop while running back Pierre Thomas dazzles, Evans grinds, Shockey excites, and wide receiver Marques Colston and the other receivers streak.  

I believe a balanced attack will emerge this year. The Saints will be able to control the ball and win a game both the old-fashioned way, and by simply outpacing their opponents.  

The improved secondary, the new coach, and a ball control offense will produce a top ten defense.

Whether the Saints limp in to the playoffs at 10-6, or fly in at 12-4, they will make it to the title game against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

With their young talent, team chemistry, and Pro Bowl quarterback, the Saints will find a bit of luck to put them over the top and into Super Bowl XLIV.

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