Chargers’ PYP an Indicator of Where They’ve Been, What Could Come

The mathematicians of the world might be mostly entrenched in the baseball realm, but there’s some moving over to the football world as well.

A unique stat that is breaking ground is Potential Yardage Percentage (PYP). It’s a simple one to monitor; it’s the percentage of yardage a team could have obtained during the game.

So, if a team starts on the 50 yard line and goes one yard, then they only gained two percent of their potential yardage.

If you have a better PYP than the other team, does that mean you’re always going to win? That still has to be determined; a team could have a great PYP and lose 12-0 on four field goals.

But that was the case for the Chargers. Eight times during the season, they had a better PYP than their opponent. They won all eight games. So for a team that went 8-8 you can imagine what happened when they didn’t have a better PYP than the other team.

Who do you pin that on? It’s hard to tell. PYP is still making its way to the forefront. And the Chargers’ PYP gained and allowed was all over the board last season.

But there was something to note; the Chargers seemed to stay even with a lot of their opponents. When their opponents had a low PYP, the Chargers seemed to have a low one as well.

There were a couple of big differences. Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chargers’ PYP was only 38.16 percent, and the Steelers dominated for 51.59 percent.

In the Chargers’ final loss before their miraculous run, Atlanta had a PYP of 58.61, while San Diego only had 21.76 percent.

The Chargers’ best performance of the season in terms of PYP differential was the week after the Atlanta loss, when they virtually made Oakland irrelevant. Oakland’s PYP in that game was a putrid 14.81 percent.

San Diego, meanwhile, only had a 41.12 PYP in that game (below their season average of 47.00), but it didn’t matter because they destroyed the Raiders.

In the eight losses, it’s hard to tell where things went wrong. Aside from the Pittsburgh and Atlanta games, the Chargers’ PYP wasn’t horrible. It’s tough to solely blame it on the offense for not doing more or the defense for not holding down the opposition better.

I think we’re going to see a big shift this season because of the defense. The draft acquisitions plus the return of Shawne Merriman should make the defense stronger than it was last season.

Also, Philip Rivers continues to improve; his quarterback rating has increased every season. The offensive PYP should go up slightly, but I expect the opponents PYP to go down.

San Diego Chargers Potential Yardage Percentage Statistics

*Regular season only

• 2008 Defensive PYP average allowed: 47.38 percent
• 2008 Offensive PYP average: 47.18 percent
• Record when having a better PYP than opponent: 8-0
• vs. 2008 playoff teams: 0 wins when having a worst PYP than opponent (5 teams)
• Best Offensive PYP performance: 78.78 percent (Week 17 vs. Denver)
• Worst Offensive PYP performance: 21.76 percent (Week 13 vs. Atlanta)
• Best Defensive PYP allowed: 14.81 percent (Week 14 at Oakland)
• Worst Defensive PYP allowed: 63.07 percent (Week 8 vs. New Orleans in London)

Rivers the Leader: My Questions for No. 17 of the Chargers

Philip Rivers is one of the main faces on the San Diego Chargers. Most noted for being a part of the Eli Manning trade, Rivers has continued to show improvement and has flourished.

Despite an 8-8 record last season, and the team being down statistically in a lot of important categories, Rivers’ numbers rose. He had a 105.5 quarterback rating in 2008, the first time he cracked 100 since his rookie season in 2004, where he only played sparingly.

Rivers also amassed more than 4,000 yards passing, while finishing with a 65.3 completion percentage.

With the team celebrating its 50th anniversary, quarterbacks of past San Diego lore are likely going to be brought up throughout the season as the team reminisces about where they have been.

With that in mind, here’s a list of questions I’d like to ask Rivers if given the time to do so:

1. Last year you had, statistically, your best season as a quarterback. What do you think you have to improve on to have an even better season?

2. Do you believe you have to shoulder the majority of the offense this season, or are you willing to take a back seat while the two running backs try to run over everyone?

3. You have to go back to Pittsburgh again. Last time you all went, it didn’t go in your favor. What do you have to do this time to break through and win?

4. To follow up on the Pittsburgh question, the conditions at Heinz Field weren’t exactly the greatest. You haven’t had to play too many games in sleet or snow. What makes playing in that so difficult, or is it mental?

5. I’m looking at Week Nine on the schedule. You have to go to the Meadowlands to play the Giants. Is this the game where you say, “I’m going to prove that I’m better than Eli Manning?” or is this just another game on the schedule?

6. Speaking of quarterback battles, a lot of fans in the West know about the back-and-forth jabs between you and Jay Cutler. You won’t get to have any of that this year because he is out of the division. Are you disappointed you won’t be able to “share pleasantries” with him?

7. Do you think you’re in the upper echelon of quarterbacks, because most analysts have put you in the second tier.

8. (No?) Then what do you have to do to get there? Is it by getting to the Super Bowl?

9. I can understand if you’re spending all your time with the offense and the coordinators and Coach Turner, but have you been able to check out what the defense has been doing? Do you like what you’re seeing?

10. I join the many analysts that will examine what you all do in the first few weeks, because in the past, the team has had slow starts. What has to change to break that trend of slow starts?

11. That Sports Illustrated poster, where your face was pasted on the cover, do you still have it?

12. Now that you’ve been here for a few years, you’ve been able to get immersed in the San Diego culture. Do you have any restaurant recommendations?

Right Mix Of Teammates, Opponents Could Help Bolts Reach Promised Land

When the New England Patriots were expected to get to the Super Bowl, they did it. The same went with the Indianapolis Colts, and even the Seattle Seahawks.

The San Diego Chargers? They’re still trying.

Yep, they’ve won the past three AFC West championships. However, they’ve been one of the few remaining teams that have been consistently penned to be a Super Bowl contender and fallen short. The closest they’ve come in their recent run was when they lost to then-undefeated New England in the 2007-08 playoffs.

Now, those same pundits that have penned San Diego the past few years are using more of a pencil. It’s probably because they don’t know how this team will fare. In fact, it seems nobody knows.

But I’d still pick them to win the division and make a run in the postseason, partly because of its AFC West counterparts.

The Chargers became the third team in the past five seasons to finish 8-8 and make the playoffs. Only one of the previous two teams made the playoffs the next season. That one team was the 2007 New York Giants, which won Super Bowl XLII. If they want to take the sunshine route, they could look toward New York and see that the Giants improved from a mediocre playoff run to win it all a year later.

But here’s where the Chargers might be safe. The average team last season won about three more games than the previous season in reaching the playoffs (It was 2.83 in the AFC, 3.00 in the NFC).

So that means Denver, Oakland and Kansas City are being asked to win at least three more games from the previous season to match the Chargers.

Likely? I think not.

The Denver Broncos, which won eight games last season, shouldn’t count on winning 11 games with Kyle Orton at quarterback. He didn’t do it in Chicago. And their defense, which was toward the bottom in most categories, has to improve.

The Oakland Raiders went 5-11 last season. Winning three more only puts them at .500, which would be a feat in itself; they haven’t done that since their Super Bowl XXXVII appearance. They arguably had the worst player selections in the 2009 draft, so they’re counting on veterans—that went 5-11 mind you—to improve with technically a new coach.

The Kansas City Chiefs were 2-14 last season. Three more wins is a sign of improvement, but certainly not a playoff spot.

Now although we’re asking the other teams in the AFC West to do more work just to match the Chargers, here’s the downer for the SoCal franchise: Looking at the past five seasons, they’re the only team to make the playoffs three straight times but go backwards in win total.

After a 14-win season, they dropped to 11, then to eight.

San Diego cannot finish 8-8 again and yell, “Here we come South Florida!” They have to close out those nail biting contests that almost came back to hurt them last season. Also, a 6-0 run against the AFC West is very likely. That alone bumps them from 8-8 to 11-5, or maybe 12-4.

If they can get to double digits in wins, it will be tough for the rest of the AFC West to leapfrog them.

But reaching the playoffs is only the first task. They know they have to get the wins in the playoffs to not only satisfy the fan base, but also continue to justify that hiring Norv Turner was the right move.

Improving the running game will help matters. They have about $13 million locked up in LaDanian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles this season, so there has to be some production coming from the running back department; they were 20th last season and worst among the AFC West teams. The offense was saved by the passing game, as it was seventh overall.

It appears that they’re going to put their hopes on either Kynan Forney or incoming rookie Louis Vasquez to shore up that right guard position and give the ball carriers some extra time. Vasquez might get tapped, considering he was on a pass-happy Texas Tech team, yet the line gave up the fifth fewest sacks in the nation in 2008. However, some signs indicate that it will be up to Forney to lose the spot.

Defensively, the Chargers were 11th overall and first in the division against the run (and it wasn’t even close, the other three teams were in the bottom six). Against the pass, they were only better than Seattle. With the impending return of Shawne Merriman, that will likely help matters. But if they can also get help from incoming rookie Larry English, their defense could be a legitimate top-10 contender. English had 31.5 sacks while at Northern Illinois, fifth all-time in the Mid-American Conference.

The team might ride on those two guys, but they’ll seek additional support from new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera. The NorCal native joined the Chargers in the offseason, and he can explain to them what it takes to get to a Super Bowl; he did it as a player and an assistant coach.

The Chargers have the parts to get it done. And while it’s likely they’ll make the playoffs, they know they have to be in South Florida as one of the final two teams playing.

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