Wild Card Rematches: Three Reasons the Games Go the Other Way

The 2010 NFL Wild Card Weekend will feature three rematches from Week 17. All three games turned out to be blowouts.

The Jets defeated the Bengals 37-0, the Eagles fell to the Cowboys 24-0, and the Packers took care of the Cardinals 33-7.

The playoffs are a new season, though. Everybody has the same record, 0-0. Here are three reasons why all three teams that got blown out will win this weekend.

1. Andy Reid is 7-0 in opening playoff games. Wade Phillips is 0-4.

Since Andy Reid took over as coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999, they have never lost an opening playoff game.

Rather, they have compiled wins against Tampa Bay (2000, 2001), Atlanta (2002), Green Bay (2003), Minnesota (2004), the New York Giants (2006), and Minnesota (2008).

On the other side, Wade Phillips has yet to win a playoff game.

With the Broncos, he lost to the Raiders (1993). With the Bills, he lost to the Dolphins (1998) and the Titans (1999). Most recently, with his current team the Cowboys, he lost to the Giants (2007).

Look for Reid and McNabb to do what they always do: win their first game of the postseason.

Look for Phillips and Romo to do what they always do: go one-and-done in the playoffs.

2. The Bengals will be at home this time (and actually trying).

The Bengals only lost twice at home this season. One of those losses came in Week 1 on a fluke play when Brandon Stokely, of the Denver Broncos, had a deflected ball fall into his arms in the final seconds of the game.

Among their six home wins are victories over the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

While the Jets compiled an impressive 5-3 road record, it’s not quite as good as it sounds. Their last four road victories came against the Raiders, the Bills, the Buccaneers, and a Colts team that was resting its starters.

It’s never a good sign when the only reason you’re in the playoffs is because the last two teams you played weren’t trying to win. Look for things to be much different this time around.

3 . Kurt Warner > Aaron Rodgers.

In a game featuring two high-octane offenses, a lot depends on which quarterback is able to avoid mistakes.

Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal in his first two years as a starter. He is the first player in NFL history to pass for 4,000 yards in his first two seasons.

But Sunday will be his first playoff game and he’s facing one of the decade’s best quarterbacks. As good as Rodgers has been, it’s still an unknown how he’ll deal with the pressures of the second season.

Arizona’s defense finished with 43 sacks (despite not rushing the passer at all in Week 17), good for sixth in the league. Green Bay finished with a league-leading 50 sacks allowed (despite not having to defend a pass rush in Week 17). 

Translation: Rodgers will be under serious pressure, both figuratively and literally, all game long.

Kurt Warner, on the other hand, will be starting his 12th playoff game with eight playoff victories under his belt. He has played in three Super Bowls (and holds the record for first, second, and third all-time passing yards in a Super Bowl).

Just last year, Warner set NFL records for both passing yards and touchdowns in a postseason.

Look for Warner and that accurate arm of his to shine against the Packer’s banged up secondary.

 

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Green Bay Packer Fans Should Be Booing Ted Thompson, Not Brett Favre

It’s time. Time to call out Ted Thompson.

I cannot understand why the fans at Lambeau Field were seen booing Brett Favre. That passion and anger should be directed in an entirely different direction.

Packer fan: If you don’t like seeing Brett Favre run out onto your field in a Vikings uniform, don’t get mad at him. Get mad at your General Manager who ran him out of town.

Get mad at the man who decided that the Packers didn’t need Brett Favre anymore. If the Packers are too good for Brett Favre, why should they be worried about him playing anywhere else?

Brett Favre took a ton of heat from media members and fans alike for his indecision. Where is the heat that Ted Thompson so richly deserves?

Ted Thompson, we are now a season and a half into your Brett Favre dismissal operation, and I think we can declare you as the official loser.

Your team that won 13 games two years ago and found itself an overtime away from the Super Bowl has compiled a 10-13 record since the departure of Favre.

Yes, Aaron Rodgers is playing well. He’s putting up great numbers. Kudos to him for performing well in a tough situation. But, with almost entirely the same team as two years ago, the wins are just not happening.

Anyone who has followed the career of Brett Favre knows that he doesn’t put up the best numbers you’ve ever seen. But he does win.

And winning is exactly what he did last Sunday at Lambeau Field. He showed the men who turned on him how big of a mistake they made.

He showed the crowd of fans who turned on him that he still has it.

So it’s time to start talking about one of the biggest blunders in the NFL. Its time to bring out the nominations for the Worst GM award.

Don’t look now, Ted Thompson, but Brett Favre is running away with your division title.

 

 

 

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Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb: Starting Two Quarterbacks

Michael Vick has signed a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, along with a team option for a second year.

Initial reactions from NFL analysts was that of shock, as many thought of the signing as a threat to Donovan McNabb. McNabb has told the media, however, that he lobbied to get Vick and that there is no threat.

So that got me thinking about how the Eagles could use Vick.

Now, what I’m about to suggest is admittedly far-fetched, but give it a chance. Imagine Vick and McNabb on the field together, at the same time, as quarterbacks. Throw in the running back, Brian Westbrook, and you have a very scary backfield.

The notion of starting two quarterbacks is a fairly new one, but it has been done.

A high school coach in California, last year, instituted such an offense calling it the A-11 offense. In this offense, two quarterbacks lined up in the shotgun, on either side of the center.

There have been many reports of other high schools and even colleges planning to adopt the idea.

In the NFL, however, rules do not allow for the kinds of formations used in the A-11 offense.

The NFL does, however, allow direct snaps. You could have two “quarterbacks” (and an additional running back) in the backfield, with one quarterback lined up behind the center. You would then have the option of snapping to either quarterback.

This idea has been a popular one in the NFL, lately.

Miami, for example, used the direct snap frequently in its offense last season in the Wildcat Formation. Ronnie Brown would often take a direct snap and run with the ball. There has been talk of using Pat White this season to take the direct snaps, adding the dynamic of having the ability to throw the ball.

With McNabb, Vick, and Westbrook in the backfield, the pressure would be on the defense. The offensive coordinator has the option of snapping to either quarterback. Both have the ability to throw and run. Once the ball is snapped, the other quarterback can either run a route as a receiver, take a hand-off, or wait for a lateral (which he could then chose to throw).

Imagine, as a defense, trying to keep this contained. Especially considering the other weapons on the Eagles’ offense that we haven’t even mentioned.

Sounds pretty interesting.

I admit, chances are that Vick will just serve as a backup, coming in for potential injury or maybe even to spell McNabb for a series. But wouldn’t it be interesting to see the Eagles start both of these dynamic quarterbacks?

The Easiest and Toughest 2009-10 Schedules For NFL Quarterbacks

Before you skim ahead to find the results, please understand that this is not an opinion article. I have deliberately kept any personal opinion from these results.

Rather, this article is entirely based on numbers. I realize that, because of this, it will not give the full picture. Statistics never can. So, take these results for what they are.

I tried to come up with the best way to represent which NFL Quarterbacks would be facing the easiest and toughest schedules for the 2009-10 season. This is what I came up with.

First, I calculated the average opponent QB rating for the 2008 season, for each team in the NFL. This should show how difficult or easy it is to perform as a quarterback against that team.

For example, the Baltimore Ravens had the lowest average opponent QB rating at 64.3. Clearly, it is not an easy task to perform well as a quarterback when you play the Ravens. (The next two lowest averages are the Steelers with 67.3 and the Titans with 68.2).

On the other end of the spectrum, the Detroit Lions had an astounding average opponent QB rating of 113.2. Surely, it isn’t too much to ask of a quarterback to do well against the Lions. (The next two highest averages are the Cardinals with 102.7 and the Broncos with 98.1).

Of course, some defenses will be better this year than last, while others will be worse. But in order to leave it entirely up to numbers, I am forced to rely on the most recent defensive statistics.

Once I had the average opponent QB ratings, I was able to calculate the average expected QB rating for each team’s schedule. Keep in mind, this does not factor in who that team’s quarterback is.

For example, if the the season was only two games long and the Giants were scheduled to play the Steelers and the Ravens, Eli Manning would have an expected QB rating of 65.8 (average of 64.3 and 67.3).

So, after spending more time than I care to admit crunching numbers in Excel, here are the easiest and toughest 2009-10 schedules for NFL quarterbacks. (In instances where there is a QB battle going on, I will just pick who seems to currently have the edge).

 

Easiest Schedules

    Player                           Schedule’s Expected QB Rating

1. Alex Smith (SF)               88.73

2. Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)     88.62

3. Marc Bulger (STL)            88.32

4. Aaron Rodgers (GB)          87.58

5. Travaris Jackson (MIN)     87.57

6. Kerry Collins (TEN)           87.43

7. Kurt Warner (ARI)            87.38

8. Jay Cutler (CHI)              86.95

9. Joe Flacco (BAL)             86.27

10. Peyton Manning (IND)     85.95

It is important to note here the presence of the NFC West Division. The top three quarterbacks on the list play in the NFC West, with the other, Warner, placing seventh.

In addition to this, all other quarterbacks on the list, with the exception of Joe Flacco, will play games against the NFC West this season.

The NCF West has 2008 average opponent QB ratings of 102.3 (ARI), 95.7 (SEA), 88.9 (STL), and 87.8 (SF).

 

Toughest Schedules

Player                                 Schedule’s Expected QB Rating

1. Matt Ryan (ATL)                80.38

2. Byron Leftwich (TB)           81.59

3. Jake Delhomme (CAR)         81.61

4. Tony Romo (DAL)               81.73

5. Tom Brady (NE)                 81.98

6. Philip Rivers (SD)                81.99

7. Kellen Clemens (NYJ)           82.59

8. Kyle Orton (DEN)                82.70

9. Chad Pennington (MIA)        82.81

10. Matthew Stafford (DET)     82.87

It is important to note here the presence of the NFC South Division. The top three quarterbacks on the list play in the NFC South, while the other, Drew Brees, does not appear on the list.

In addition to this, four other quarterbacks on the list (Romo, Brady, Clemens, and Pennington) will play games against the NFC South this season.

The NFC South has 2008 average opponent QB ratings of 77.1 (NO), 77.9 (TB), 79.9 (CAR), and 82.5 (ATL).

 

Conclusion

So there are the results. If these stats prove to be meaningful, perhaps we will finally see a good year for Alex Smith, or a return to form for Matt Hasselbeck. Maybe we will see Matt Ryan stumble a bit in his sophomore season, or more struggles for whoever manages to win the job in Tampa Bay.

Is Michael Vick a Better QB Than Eli Manning?

Eli Manning has agreed to a six-year $107 million contract with the Giants, making him the highest-paid NFL player. He is widely regarded as one of the league’s premier quarterbacks.

Michael Vick, if he ever manages to find a team, will likely sign a contract for less than $1 million. Lately, he has been widely criticized as a “mediocre-to-poor” quarterback.

So what is the difference between this $100 million quarterback and this $1 million quarterback? I believe we can sum it up under two items. Dogfighting and a David Tyree catch.

Michael Vick participated in disgusting criminal activities that have kept him away from the game of football. Eli Manning had his catch miraculously hauled in by David Tyree, leading to an improbable victory and a Super Bowl ring. (If Tyree doesn’t hold onto the ball, is Eli getting this contract?)

Clearly Eli has made better decisions and has far more to show for his efforts. But I want to keep this comparison on the field. So lets put these two very different paths aside for the moment and look at the numbers.

In five years, Eli Manning has a 55 percent completion rate, 6.4 yard passing average, 200 passing yards per game, 98 TD, 74 Int, 120 sacks, and a 76.1 QB rating.

In six years, Michael Vick has a 54 percent completion rate, 6.7 yard passing average, 155 passing yards per game, 71 TD, 52 Int, 187 sacks, and a 75.7 QB rating.

The statistics are nearly a wash, from the touchdown-to-interception ratio, to the completion percentage, to the quarterback rating. The stats do show Eli being sacked significantly fewer times (though this is, at least in part, a reflection on Vick’s tendency to run) and producing more passing touchdowns in less time.

The pure passing statistics are very close, but we’ll give the edge to Eli. But what of the running game? This is Michael Vick, after all, and the running game is an integral part of what he brings to the quarterback position.

In five years, Eli Manning has a 2.0 yard rushing average, 2.9 rushing yards per game, and three rushing TD. In 2005 he rushed for a career-high 80 yards.

In six years, Michael Vick has a 7.3 yard rushing average, 50.2 rushing yards per game, and 21 rushing TD. In 2006 he rushed for a record 1,039 yards.

Couple Michael Vick’s record rushing stats with his passing stats, and (I think) the numbers show that he is the better quarterback. He has about the same passing ability, but far-superior running ability.

We should also look at the talent that each player had surrounding them. In his years with the Giants, Eli Manning has played behind an offensive line that has included Pro-bowlers Shaun O’hara and Chris Snee. He has handed the ball off to Pro-bowlers Tiki Barber and (FB) Madison Hedgecock.

He has thrown to the ball to Pro-bowlers Jeremy Shockey and David Tyree. I should also mention AP NFL All-Pro selection Plaxico Burress.

In his years with the Falcons, Michael Vick has handed the ball off to Pro-bowler Warrick Dunn and has thrown the ball to Pro-Bowlers Algae Crumpler and Roddy White.

It is a very wide barrier that separates the current state of Michael Vick’s career from Eli Manning’s. But there’s not much separation in their ability on the field. Neither is a great passer. Vick is a great runner. I give the edge to Vick.

On the field, anyway.

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