NFL Midseason Awards: The Best So Far

Through the first eight weeks of the season, it seems like the best of the best are already asserting themselves in an effort to capture NFL hardware at season’s end.

With surprising play from unexpected rookies and reliable play from the steadiest of steady, a good portion of the awards seem to be shaping up pretty obviously.

I’ll break down who I believe are the midseason award winners and give projected 16-game stats for each based on the pace they are on right now.

And so, it is my pleasure to present to you now the mid-season NFL award winners:

 

MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Projected 16-game stats: 427/601 (71%), 5,090 yards, 34 TDs, 9 INTs

Peyton Manning has been lights out this year, leading his undefeated Colts team to the top of most expert power rankings. His undefeated counterpart, Drew Brees, is his main competition for this award. Ultimately, it comes down to individual performance and who means more to their team, and Manning wins that competition hands-down.

Don’t believe me? Let’s check out the stats:

The Saints through seven games so far this year have 14 rushing touchdowns, twice as many as the Colts’ seven.

The Saints defense has also helped out their QB by scoring six touchdowns themselves, whereas the Colts defense has scored only a single touchdown.

Simply put, Peyton Manning has carried his team, and is more valuable to the Colts than Drew Brees is to the Saints. He is right now the undisputed MVP.

 

Offensive Player of the Year: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Projected 16-game stats: 1,883 rush yards, 9 rush TDs, 313 receiving yards, 2 receiving TDs

It’s tough to believe that the Offensive Player of the year could come from a team that had to wait until week eight for its first win, but Chris Johnson has just been that good despite his team being that bad.

Johnson currently leads the league in rushing, total yards from scrimmage, and yards-per-carry among backs with over 50 carries, somehow averaging a ridiculous 6.9 per attempt.

Johnson is on pace for over 2,000 total yards and 11 total touchdowns, both of which are great totals. He is the ultimate weapon on offense and there are few players that could be put in the same discussion with him for this award.

 

Defensive Player of the Year: Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers

Projected 16-game stats: 153 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 INTs, 11 passes defended, 4 Forced Fumbles, 2 TDs

Patrick Willis has clearly established himself as the most dominant inside linebacker in football, and has been doing everything this season. If it weren’t for him, there is no doubt the 49ers would not be ranked second in the NFL against the run.

Willis does things that linebackers simply shouldn’t do. He already has two interceptions on the year, one of which he returned for a touchdown. He has also forced two fumbles and notched 2.5 sacks from the inside linebacker spot in a 3-4 defense, a very unfriendly position for sack stats.

Willis is a true defensive stalwart, and as a result he has his team’s defense playing at a high level and is very deserving of the award.

 

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Projected 16-game stats: 738 receiving yards, 7 receiving TDs, 78 rush yards, 4 kick return TDs

Percy Harvin has been lightning in a bottle this year for the Vikings, becoming one of Brett Favre’s favorite weapons.

And there’s a reason for that. Harvin is a big play threat every time he touches the ball, as is evidenced by his six receptions of 20+ yards. He is scaring opposing teams as a rookie, something not easy to do in the NFL.

His dynamic kick returning is also a reason for the award. Harvin is currently the league leader in kick return average among player with 20 or more returns, posting an eye-popping 30.7 yards-per-return. He also has more returns than anyone of 40+ yards with five on the season, and is tied with Ted Ginn Jr. for the league lead in kick return touchdowns with two.

Harvin has become a legitimate weapon as a rookie and simply outshines the rest of his competition.

 

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jairus Byrd, FS, Buffalo Bills

Projected 16-game stats: 64 tackles, 14 INTs, 18 passes defended

Obviously the 16-game stats are a little unrealistic, as Byrd’s hot streak won’t last for 8 more consecutive games, but this one is easy. Jairus Byrd, fresh off his third straight multi-interception game, has been lighting up the league since he was inserted into Buffalo’s starting lineup.

Byrd is currently tied with Darren Sharper for the league lead in interceptions with seven, and is third in tackles among rookie defensive backs with 32.

He’s a natural ballhawk and his rookie learning curve certainly hasn’t looked very steep thus far. If he can keep up his flashy plays, he should be able to hold off fellow rookie phenom Brian Cushing for this award.

 

At the break of the season, those are the awards as I see them right now. Take the projections with a grain of salt, they are simply the current stats adjusted to a 16-game format. Never the less, don’t let that take away from the astonishing nature of what these players have done so far in the 2009-10 season.

These players have outplayed the rest of their league and have been simply spectacular week in and week out, and they deserve to be rewarded for it.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Draft Analysis: Bustology 101

The first round of the NFL draft is an exciting but dangerous place for both players and fans. The question on most people’s minds is the same:

Will [insert name here] actually play like a first-rounder or will he bust?

Well, I decided to dig deeper into the dismal world of NFL Draft busts to help you, the fans, have a better idea of whether a player picked in the first round is going to bust or not, based on what part of the round they are picked in and what position they play.

My formula is this:

General consensus is that any player taken in the first round is expected to be a full-time starter within their first three years in the league, and to hold that position for the better part of a decade.

So, looking at the past five drafts (up to 2006, due to the aforementioned three-year grace period), I decided to figure out where in the first round each position’s biggest and smallest bust rate is, based on that consensus.

How I determined which players could be labeled as “busts” is simple: if a player picked in the first round of those five drafts is not currently starting, they are considered a bust. And if they are not currently a starter due to injury, they will STILL be counted as a bust, since there are plenty of risky, injury-prone players picked every year. Sean Taylor will be counted as a starter, due to his tragic non-football related death.

*Note: If a running back picked is currently a part of their team’s increasingly popular “running back by committee,” they will be counted as a starter.*

I broke down the “areas” of the draft into quarters; picks 1-8, picks 9-16, picks 17-24 and picks 25-32, and took a look at each position’s “bust rate” in each to determine where the most dangerous spot is, as well as where the safest spot is.

So, after reading this article, you should be able to either justify your skepticism of your favorite team’s pick, or take comfort in knowing that there is a good chance whoever they choose will turn out fine.

These were my results:

Quarterbacks:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 17-24 (75% Bust Rate)

Of the four quarterbacks picked in this range over the five-year period examined, only one (Aaron Rodgers) is currently a starter, while two are not even on an NFL roster.

The three busts consist of:

• Kyle Boller – Picked No. 19 overall by Baltimore in 2003, currently a backup in St. Louis.
• Rex Grossman – Picked just three selections after Boller in 2003, currently a free agent.
• J.P. Losman – Picked No. 22 overall by Buffalo in 2004, currently on the roster for UFL Las Vegas of the newly formed United Football League.

If your team decides to take a chance on a QB in the mid-to-late portion of the first round, beware.

Safest Spot: picks 9-16 (33% Bust Rate)

Statistically, this spot is the safest to pick quarterbacks in, as only one of the three chosen in that spot, Matt Leinart, is not currently starting. And even he still looks to be the quarterback of the future in Arizona.

The two picked in this spot that are currently starting both turned out pretty well, as they have combined for two Super Bowl rings and two Pro Bowl berths between them. They are:

• Ben Roethlisberger – Picked No. 11 overall in a 2004 draft littered with current Pro Bowl quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Roethlisberger), starting QB for the reigning Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers.
• Jay Cutler – also Picked No. 11 two years after Roethlisberger, Cutler was actually taken immediately after Matt Leinart, the only current non-starter from this spot in the draft. Currently the starting QB for the Chicago Bears after being traded from the Denver Broncos earlier this offseason.

If your team is looking for a quarterback of the future, hope that they show just a little bit of patience in the first round.

Running Backs:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 9-16 (100% Bust Rate)

Only one team over the five-year span which I examined decided to take a running back in this spot of the draft.

That team happened to be the Cleveland Browns, infamous for their horrendous draft history (i.e. Tim Couch, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren). They lived up to that reputation by selecting Boston College product William Green with the No. 16 overall pick in 2002.

Not only is Green currently not a starter, he has not been in the league since 2005. Green may have been the only running back picked in this spot of the draft, but he certainly didn’t help make the spot look more attractive.

Safest Spot: picks 1-8, 17-24 (25% Bust Rate)

There was a tie here as far as the safest pick spot goes for running backs, as both spots listed produced only one bust out of the four taken in their respective spots. Both of these spots have produced some true stud runners, such as:

• Willis McGahee – Picked No. 23 overall in 2003 by the Buffalo Bills, currently part of a “running back by committee” for the Baltimore Ravens.
• Steven Jackson – Picked No. 24 overall by the St. Louis Rams in 2004, Jackson has notched 1,000-yard rushing seasons in four of his five years in the league.
• Ronnie Brown – Picked No. 2 overall in 2005 by the Miami Dolphins, Brown thrived in Miami’s hybrid wildcat last season, averaging 4.3 yards-per-carry and racking up 10 touchdowns.

These two spots are a safe place to dip into if your team is looking to grab a solid tailback.

Wide Receivers:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 9-24 (60% Bust Rate)

First-round receivers in general have a fairly high bust rate, but once again there were two sections tied, only this time for the most dangerous spot rather than the safest. Anywhere between picks No. 9 and No. 24 is a bad place to expect a stud receiver, as is evidenced by the pickings of:

• Donte’ Stallworth – Picked No. 13 overall in 2002 by the New Orleans Saints, has been injury-plagued his whole career and is currently facing what could be an indefinite suspension after pleading guilty to DUI Manslaughter earlier this summer. He is not on any team’s roster.
• Reggie Williams – Picked No. 9 overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2004, Williams always had talent but has been plagued by character issues and was sentenced to two years probation in May after pleading guilty to possession of half a gram of cocaine. He is also not currently on a team’s roster.
• Mike Williams – Picked No. 10 overall by the Detroit Lions in 2005, Williams was simply another one of Matt Millen’s mishaps with the Lions. Mike, much like Reggie, always had talent but was plagued by character issues and a lack of work ethic. Williams weighed 271 pounds during his 2007 season with the Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans, and was released after OTA’s the following offseason.

These spots in the draft are usually where teams take a chance on players who have issues either with their character or durability. Those tend to backfire, as is evidenced by these picks.

Safest Spot: picks 1-8 (33% Bust Rate)

If your team is looking to find a good receiver in the first round, earlier seems to be better based on these five years. The supreme talents taken in this spot of these drafts rival any, featuring:

• Andre Johnson – The NFL’s leader in receiving yards this past season, Johnson has been nothing short of spectacular since being drafted No. 3 overall in the 2003 draft, garnering Pro Bowl honors three times and All-Pro honors twice over his young career.
• Larry Fitzgerald – The No. 3 pick one year after Johnson, Fitzgerald is arguably the best receiver on planet Earth right now. He shattered NFL postseason records this year by posting 30 catches for 546 yard and seven touchdowns, including a stellar Super Bowl performance of seven catches, 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was not enough to give his Cardinals a victory, but was still extremely impressive.

If you want your team to get a top-notch receiver, having a top pick in the draft certainly doesn’t hurt.

Tight Ends:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 25-32 (25% Bust Rate)

Tight ends usually aren’t picked in the first round, but when they are, they usually pan out just fine. This is evidenced by the fact that, of the nine tight ends picked in the first round over the five drafts examined here, only one busted. Nonetheless, I need to post a most dangerous spot here, and so it happens to be the spot where the only bust fell.

Jerramy Stevens is most known for his trash-talking exchange with Joey Porter prior to Super Bowl XL. In that game, Stevens caught what still is the Seattle Seahawks’ only Super Bowl touchdown in franchise history.

However, Stevens also dropped as many passes as he caught (three) that game, and the Seahawks lost to the Steelers 21-10.

His legal troubles have been well-documented as well, as he has three arrests and multiple citations on his record. In 2008, Stevens was suspended for two games and was fined three game checks for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy.

Stevens is currently a backup in Tampa Bay behind Kellen Winslow.

Safest Spot: picks 1-24 (0% Bust Rate)

As I stated earlier in the article, the first round in general is a pretty safe spot to pick a tight end, but if your team takes one in the first 24 picks, well, you can sleep like a baby knowing that whoever they took is going to be a starter soon and should be just fine.

The most notable tight ends picked in this range are Tampa Bay’s Kellen Winslow (ironically being backed up right now by the only bust on the list) and Indianapolis’ Dallas Clark.

Winslow has had some injury issues, but received a very well-earned Pro Bowl selection following a 2007 season in which he recorded 82 receptions for 1,106 yards and five touchdowns. He is undoubtedly one of the top talents in the game at the tight end position.

Clark, on the other hand, was inexplicably snubbed from the Pro Bowl in 2007 even after hauling in 11 touchdowns, good for seventh in the league and tops among tight ends.

Regardless, if a team thinks that a tight end is a first-round talent or not, they should not hesitate to pull the trigger. It generally turns out well.

Offensive Linemen:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 9-16 (33% Bust Rate)

Offensive linemen selected in the first round, typically speaking, have a fairly good shot at meeting their team’s expectations. However, there are always some that don’t.

Of the three offensive linemen picked between selections No. 9 and 17 over the five years I looked at, two have made Pro Bowls during their careers, and one is currently not on an NFL roster.

Shawn Andrews and Jammal Brown are the two Pro-Bowlers, while Levi Jones is currently looking for work.

Jones was a solid player early in his career, but injuries have plagued him over the past three seasons, as he only started 28 of a possible 48 games during that span. Those injury concerns led to his being released from the team this offseason, and Jones has yet to find a landing spot thus far.

Safest Spot: picks 1-8, 17-24 (20% Bust Rate)

There was a tie in here which actually made quite a bit of sense to me, and explained the reasoning behind picks 9-16 being the most dangerous. Allow me to explain why:

The top picks (1-8) are where the cream of the crop get picked. These are the guys with high enough talent to be able to handle playing right away for what is usually a very bad team with a very bad offensive line.

Which leaves the “second-tier” talents to be picked over picks 9-16 and, while they certainly have good talent, they may not have the amount of talent necessary to overcome playing along a bad line for a bad team.

For example:

• Jordan Gross – Picked No. 8 overall by the Carolina Panthers in the 2003 draft, Gross performed extremely well right off the bat, even being named to Sports Illustrated‘s All-Pro team as a rookie. Gross was voted to the Pro Bowl and was a first-team All-Pro selection this past year.

The middle picks (17-24) are usually teams on the verge of a playoff berth that have three or four solid players on their line, and so are able to throw a “lesser talent” from the first round into the starting lineup right away, knowing that the solid veterans on the line will take care of them and help them be successful.

For example:

• Alex Barron – Picked No. 19 overall by the St. Louis Rams in the 2005 draft, Barron was an immediate starter at right tackle as a rookie, and was lucky enough to be playing across from arguably the best left tackle in the game at the time, Orlando Pace as well as playing next to a couple 10-year vets in right guard Adam Timmerman and center Andy McCollum. Playing with experienced guys like them helped make Barron’s transition to the league a smooth one.

Those two greatly help to support my theory.

Defensive Linemen:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 1-8 (40% Bust Rate)

Defensive linemen are sometimes viewed as “safe picks,” like when the Houston Texans took Mario Williams No. 1 overall in 2006 despite most—including myself—viewing Reggie Bush as a lock for the top spot.

However, not all defensive linemen picked that early turn out to be like Super Mario. The one super-bust in this spot was Johnathan Sullivan.

Sullivan was selected No. 6 overall by the New Orleans Saints in 2003, and was out of the league by 2006. After three unproductive years with the Saints, Sullivan was traded to the New England Patriots for Bethel Johnson following the 2005 season, and was then released by the Pats that October after seeing the field in zero games.

So if your team takes a defensive linemen early, be a little afraid. You could have landed the next Mario Williams, but you also could have landed the next Johnathan Sullivan.

Safest Spot: picks 9-16 (33% Bust Rate)

This section of the draft proved to be the most prosperous for defensive linemen, as of the 12 that were picked, only four turned into busts.

And the successes? Well, they’re not just low-end starters. They’re full of full-blown superstars. Just take a look for yourself:

• Dwight Freeney – Picked No. 11 overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 2002, Freeney has been a mainstay on the defensive line since day one, as he recorded a mind-boggling 13.0 sacks as rookie, while setting an NFL rookie record with nine forced fumbles. Freeney led the league in sacks in 2004 with 16.0, and has recorded single-digit sacks in only two of his seven seasons.
• Albert Haynesworth – I shouldn’t even have to say anything about this one. Selected No. 15 overall by the Tennessee Titans in 2002, Haynesworth is a downright nasty player and the top defensive tackle in the game today. Haynesworth recently notched himself a seven-year, $100 million contract with the Washington Redskins, an unprecedented amount for a defensive linemen, let alone a defensive tackle. That probably made this next player, who may be the only defensive tackle better than Haynesworth, grin from ear to ear thinking about his next deal.
• Kevin Williams – Picked No. 9 overall in the 2003 draft by the Minnesota Vikings, Kevin currently teams up with teammate Pat Williams to form the dreaded “Williams Wall” in Minnesota, anchoring what has been the top-ranked rush defense in the NFL the past three seasons.

If your team takes a defensive lineman during this chunk of the draft, set your drink down and jump for joy. Odds are, your team just landed one hell of a player.

Linebackers:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 25-32 (50% Bust Rate)

Linebacker is another position usually not addressed in the first round. And while only one player picked between picks No. 25-32 busted, only two players were picked in that spot, giving it the highest bust percentage.

Robert Thomas was picked No. 31 overall in the 2002 draft by the St. Louis Rams. Thomas has always been injury-prone and has played in 16 games only twice in his career, with one being strictly on special teams with the Oakland Raiders in 2006.

Thomas sat on the bench that season behind the likes of Sam Williams, a starter who notched only 38 tackles over 12 games started. So clearly it was not just the injury issues holding Thomas back. There was also a severe lack of talent.

While there is a very small sample to examine here, it would appear that late-pick fliers on linebackers in round one is not necessarily a risk worth taking.

Safest Spot: picks 1-16 (0% Bust Rate)

Linebackers picked high in the draft generally seem to do pretty well for themselves, seeing as all nine who were picked between No. 1-16 over the five-year span which was considered for this article are all current starters for their respective teams, with four becoming Pro Bowlers.

The Highlights of this group include:

• Terrell Suggs – Picked No. 10 overall by the Baltimore Ravens in 2003, Suggs has become a true stud as a rush linebacker in Baltimore’s 3-4 scheme, garnering three Pro Bowl berths in his six seasons and receiving a six-year, $63 million extension this offseason.
• DeMarcus Ware – Picked No. 11 overall in 2005, the NFL’s sack leader in 2008 notched an unbelievable 20.0 sacks despite facing double-teams every week. Ware has turned into arguably the most dominant pass-rusher in the league, posting double-digit sacks in three of his four seasons and earning Pro Bowl selections in all but his rookie year.
• Shawne Merriman – Before missing last season with an ACL injury, Merriman was the picture of pass-rushing perfection after being picked right after Ware in 2005, posting double-digit sacks all three of his years in the league and earning Pro Bowl berths each time.

That list does not even include Jonathan Vilma, one of the top inside linebackers in the game today. So if your favorite NFL team is looking for a linebacker, this is the area of the draft to do it.

Defensive Backs:

Most Dangerous Spot: picks 25-32 (56% Bust Rate)

Late-pick fliers are not the place to be looking for help in the defensive backfield.

Examples of these failed experiments include:

• Mike Rumph – Rumph was picked No. 27 overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2002, and retired after playing five injury-riddled seasons, during which he started 19 of a possible 80 games.
• Sammy Davis – Picked No. 30 overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2003, Davis started as a rookie, but was benched after two seasons for his poor play. Davis was out of football last year and last played for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2007.

Oddly enough, the league’s current top corner was also picked in this spot (Nnamdi Asomugha, No. 31 overall, 2003), proving that there is an exception to every rule.

Safest Spot: picks 17-24 (0% Bust Rate)

Of the five defensive backs picked in this area between 2002 and 2006, all five are still current starters, the cream of the crop being none other than Ed Reed, picked No. 24 overall in 2002 by the Baltimore Ravens. Reed is the definition of a ball-hawk, and is without a doubt the top free safety playing the game today.

If your team is looking for defensive back help and has a pick in this range, be happy. Recent history suggests that they will come away with a good player.

 

That completes my analysis of NFL Draft Bustology 101. Keep in mind that this is just one theory that I decided to look into, and is in no way guaranteed.

I hope that you enjoyed reading my article, and that you can take away some knowledge and have a better understanding of what to expect from players drafted by your favorite team.

 

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