Raiders v Broncos Game – Five Key Matchups to Watch

The Oakland Raiders – Denver Broncos game this Sunday renews one of the oldest and fiercest rivalries in the NFL. In two games this year the Broncos have posted more impressive offensive and defensive statistics than the silver and black, but the Raiders should get a boost by playing at home in front of the Raider Nation.

However, in games like this statistics are thrown out the window, and the winner will emerge based on making big plays at crucial times, and winning important match-ups. Five key match-ups to watch this Sunday include the following:

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Oakland Raiders Focus Areas: Preparing for the Kansas City Chiefs

On Monday night, the Oakland Raiders outperformed the San Diego Chargers in a number of areas, unfortunately, not in the one that counts…the final score.

 

One hates to use the term moral victory, but for the Raider Nation, the game was oh-so-sweet until the final quarter.

 

There were a number of key areas in which we outperformed the Bolts, including time of possession, total yards, rushing yards, yards per carry, and third down efficiency. We also avoided our old nemesis, and only had six penalties for 40 yards.

 

However, there were some key areas that the team needs to focus on this week prior before facing Kansas City.

 

 

Passing Game

 

Everyone has good days and bad days, and unfortunately for the Raiders, JaMarcus Russell was off his game on Monday night. This was surprising since the Raiders’ pass blocking limited the Chargers to just one sack and one hit on the quarterback.

 

It was obvious that Russell’s aim was off, as he threw way too many uncatchable balls. He wound up completing 12-of-30 passes for 208 yards, one TD (actually two, but we won’t go there again), and two interceptions. This was a dismal 40 percent completion rating, and 47.6 QB rating, well below his performance last season.

 

In 2008 he completed 53.8 percent of his passes with a 77.1 QB rating, with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions. And that was with a banged up wide receiver corps.

 

This week, the coaches and players are rallying around JaMarcus Russell. He needs to develop confidence in his passing and let his natural talents take over, much like he did at LSU. It’s fortunate we are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, who in Week One only had a single sack and no QB hits against the Baltimore Ravens’ Joe Flacco.

 

I anticipate the Raiders will start the game by mixing in some high percentage pass plays designed to build Russell’s confidence, and then progress to longer routes, especially if the Chiefs’ safeties begin cheating up on the line, to attempt to stop the Raiders’ ground attack.

 

 

Kickoff Coverage

 

In the first half of Monday Night Football, the Raiders’ offense and defense were dominant, and the silver and black scored a touchdown followed by a field goal. However, special teams laid an egg on both of the kickoffs following those scores, which kept the Chargers in the game.

 

In the first quarter after the Raiders went up 7-0 on Michael Bush’s four-yard run, Sebastian Janikowski then kicked the ball off to the one-yard line, only to have Darren Sproles return it 66 yards to the Oakland 33. Fortunately, LaDainian Tomlinson subsequently fumbled the ball away to Michael Huff on the Oakland nine-yard line, killing that drive.

 

Janikowski kicked a go-ahead field goal with 43 seconds remaining in the half, and then drove the ensuing kickoff to the goal line, where Sproles once again waltzed through the Oakland kickoff coverage for 59 yards to the Oakland 41, before Janikowski drove him out of bounds. The Chargers drove 12 yards and kicked a tying field goal as the second quarter expired.

 

Against the Chiefs, we can expect even more kickoffs (due to more Raider scoring), and the silver and black coverage team needs to stay in their lanes and not give up big returns. This should be an easier task since the Chargers’ longest return in Week One was to their own 26-yard line, except for a squib kick at the end of the game that they returned to their 34-yard line. 

 

 

Prevent Defense

 

Late in the game, the Raiders were unable to protect a 20-17 lead with 2:34 to play, and Phillip Rivers led the Chargers 90 yards for the winning touchdown. Rivers exploited the prevent defense with an array of short passes, including dump-off passes to Sproles that allowed him to skitter up the field for crucial first downs. During the drive, he completed passes for seven, 12, 15, 23, and 13 yards.

 

Decreasing the linebacker drops off the line would seem to be one logical solution to try and contain runners like Sproles from capitalizing on short dump-off passes, but that would compromise the downfield coverage on the tight end and wide receivers. Like many football fans, I hate prevent defenses, and hope our performance in this area improves.

 

Fortunately, the Chiefs don’t have a Phillip Rivers or a Darren Sproles.

 

 

Right Tackle Play

 

Overall the offensive line did a great job, only giving up the one sack and one QB hit, and opening running lanes for Darren McFadden and Bush. Right tackle Cornell Green played fairly well throughout the game, which was not an easy job against the very active Charger front seven.

 

Unfortunately, Green was personally responsible for half of the Raiders’ six penalties. This included a false start penalty in first quarter, and a false start and holding penalty in the last four minutes of the game. It was fortunate that none of the penalties killed big plays, but these mistakes can’t continue if the Raiders hope to succeed this season.

 

 

Conclusion

 

To be successful against the Kansas City Chiefs this Sunday, and throughout the season, the Oakland Raiders need to continue the things they did well during Week One, and improve their performance in the areas noted above.

 

I am looking forward to a great game on Sunday.

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Oakland Raiders Game One Tackling Analysis

Football fans were treated to an unexpectedly strong Oakland Raiders defense Monday night, and the San Diego Charger offense was the recipient of some old school smashmouth football that was reminiscent of the silver and black’s glory years in the ’70s and ’80s. 

 

Without question the additions of Greg Ellis and Richard Seymour had a tremendous impact on this success, but many other defensive players also stepped up Monday night.

 

Compared to last year’s defensive effort, what was noteworthy in game one was the strong push the Raiders got at the line of scrimmage and the number of tackles made near or behind the line of scrimmage. An analysis of the NFL Gamebook tackling statistics yielded the following insights.

 

 

 

Tackles for loss

 

Not counting sacks, the Raiders recorded four tackles for loss, one each by Greg Ellis, Nnamdi Asomugha, Tyvon Branch, and Thomas Howard. 

 

 

 

Sacks

 

Richard Seymour is a man of his word. On Saturday he promised that Monday night you would find him in a No. 92 jersey on top of the quarterback. The Raiders recorded three sacks, two by Seymour and one by Ellis. This is a significant accomplishment given the reputation of the Chargers’ offensive line, which only gave up 25 sacks all last season.

 

In addition, the Raiders continually collapsed the pocket around Philip Rivers (affecting his timing and footwork) and registered five quarterback hits. Frustration over the silver and black pressure eventually led Rivers to commit a taunting penalty in the third quarter.

 

 

 

Tackles near the line

 

There were 46 tackles by the defensive unit, 16 of these for gains of three yards or less, a vast improvement over last year’s efforts. Fortunately what we didn’t see this game, compared to last season, was a large number of tackles being made by the front seven way off the line of scrimmage.

 

An excellent push by the front line and overall effective defensive scheme, particularly in the first half of play.

 

 

 

Defensive line

 

The defensive line was making tackles where you would expect a good defensive line to make them, near the line of scrimmage and in the backfield. By my count the line registered 16 tackles. Great job by this group, but too bad that Desmond Bryant, who was in on several plays, did not get to register his first NFL tackle.

 

One other interesting statistic was that Tommy Kelly only had one tackle in the game, even though he often appeared to be in the thick of things. Last year he averaged 3.5 tackles a game. In comparison, Gerard Warren was in on three tackles.

 

 

 

Linebackers

 

The linebackers recorded 19 tackles and seemed to be much improved against the run. Thomas Howard and Ricky Brown led the effort with nine and seven tackles respectively.

 

Kirk Morrison was noticeably absent from the tackling column with only two tackles, both recorded in the second half. He is normally a tackling machine and averaged 8.5 tackles a game last year to lead the team. Unsure if the drop-off in game one was due to the strong line play, the Chargers’ play selection, injury, defensive scheme, or some other factor.

 

 

 

Defensive backs

 

The defensive backs accounted for 21 tackles, of which nine were for 10 yards or more. This is not totally unexpected given the Chargers’ downfield passing attack. Tyvon Branch and Chris Johnson were in on nine and eight tackles respectively and were seemingly all over the field.

 

Some great hitting near the line by our DBs, with Asomugha dropping shifty Darren Sproles in open space for a two-yard loss on one play, and Johnson absolutely leveling Sproles at the line of scrimmage on an ill-advised (for Sproles) dump-off pass.

 

 

 

Conclusion

 

Whether it is the new coaching scheme, the addition of two stalwart defensive linemen, or both, the Raiders’ tackling in game one was a source of pride, not embarrassment, for the Raider Nation. The defense constantly pressured Rivers, manhandled the Chargers’ touted offensive line, punished their runners, and swarmed around their ball carriers.

 

Your thoughts on the Raiders’ tackling performance in game one?         

 

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The Facts About the Oakland Raiders’ Blown Call

Like the rest of the Raider Nation I was shocked Monday night when the officials, in their ridiculous orange striped uniforms, inexplicably chose to review Louis Murphy’s 19 yard touchdown reception with less than two minutes remaining in the first half, and then overturn the call and negated the touchdown.

This was a pivitol point in the game since the Raiders had to settle for a field goal, and the invigorated Chargers drove for their own field goal as time expired in the half. But emotions aside, let’s examine the facts involved.

 

Facts: What Happened

 

The facts on this play as I see it, after looking at multiple slow motion replays:

Murphy leapt in the air and grabbed the ball with both hands, well within the boundaries of the end zone. 

He shifted the ball to his right hand and wedged it against his chest as he came down to the ground.

He landed on his left foot, then his right foot as his left foot remained in contact with the ground. At this time there was no indication that the ball was slipping from his grasp, and not grasped firmly in his possession.

As Murphy went to the ground (in contact with the defensive back), his right elbow struck the ground with the ball still between his hand, arm and chest. The ball appeared to contact the ground about the same time as his elbow, certainly not before.

While rolling across the ground, the ball eventually slipped from his grasp a little.  

The play was called a touchdown and then the officiating crew decided to review the call. 

The officials overturned the touchdown reception, saying the receiver lost possession as he went to the ground.     

In the second half ESPN showed a view of the play, showing Murphy’s back, that they indicated was used by the referee to overturn the call. It did not show the ball prior to Murphy’s feet contacting the ground.

Facts: The Rules

 

In examining the Digest of Rules of the National Football League, one entry applies, as follows: 

 

“A forward pass is complete when a receiver clearly possesses the pass and touches the ground with both feet inbounds while in possession of the ball.“

 

Since the NFL does not post the complete 2009 NFL rule book on its website, an online copy of the 2008 NFL rulebook was found that indicates the following:

 

Possession. To gain possession of a loose ball (3-2-3) that has been caught, intercepted, or recovered, a player must have complete control of the ball and have both feet completely on the ground inbounds or any other part of his body, other than his hands, on the ground inbounds.

If the player loses the ball while simultaneously touching both feet or any other part of his body to the ground or if there is any doubt that the acts were simultaneous, there is no possession. This rule applies in the field of play and in the end zone. The terms catch, intercept, recover, advance, and fumble denote player possession (as distinguished from touching or muffing).

Note 1: A player who goes to the ground in the process of attempting to secure possession of a loose ball (with or without contact by a defender) must maintain control of the ball after he touches the ground, whether in the field of play or the end zone. If he loses control of the ball, and the ball touches the ground before he regains control, there is no possession.

If he regains control prior to the ball touching the ground, it is a catch, interception, or recovery.

Note 3: If a player has control of the ball, a slight movement of the ball will not be considered loss of possession. He must lose control of the ball in order to rule that there has been a loss of possession.

 

Reviews by Referee. All Replay Reviews will be conducted by the Referee on a field-level monitor after consultation with the other covering official(s), prior to review. A decision will be reversed only when the Referee has indisputable visual evidence available to him that warrants the change.

 

Conclusion

 

Based on the facts, and not emotions, it is apparent that the play was a touchdown, for the following reasons.

 

When Murphy came down in the end zone with both feet on the ground and in possession of the ball, it’s a touchdown. He did not need to go to the ground and still possess this ball. This just isn’t in the rules.

 

There was no view of the play on ESPN, including the view that the replay booth said was used to overturn the touchdown, that showed the ball was not in Murphy’s possession when his feet came down. Therefore there was not indisputable visual evidence that warrants overturning the call on the field.

 

Was I surprised at the call? Not really, the Raiders have been getting the short end of the stick when it comes to officiating crew calls ever since the holy roller.  

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Fearless Game-by-Game Predictions for the 2009 Oakland Raiders Season

This morning I was beaned in the head by an empty coffee mug cup that Psycho Bob threw at my friend Bob, the retired foot doctor, at the Almaden Roasting Company. Still stunned by the blow, I looked at the Raider’s season schedule on the table. Suddenly, in a flash, it was very clear to me, the results of all of the 2009 regular season Oakland Raiders games.

Included below are the predicted outcomes for all sixteen upcoming Oakland Raiders games. It’s interesting to note that the Raiders’ schedule includes six games against 2008 playoff teams and, as pointed out by my friend Bug, four very winnable games against the Chiefs and Broncos. Not having a clear take on the Richard Seymour situation complicates this projection, but here goes.

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Calculating Oakland Raiders 2009 Season Record by Position Strengths

This article provides a unique way to calculate the 2009 win-loss record of the Oakland Raiders. There are several ways to predict a team’s win-loss record based on objective criteria like player additions and subtractions, strength of schedule, match ups, etc.

For this exercise the Raiders’ 2009 regular season win-loss record will be calculated based on improvements/regressions for each position on the team. The baseline for the projection is last year’s 5-11 record. If positions improved since last season, this will add a half or whole game to the projected 2009 wins. If positions degraded this season it would reduce the projected wins by a half or whole game. Let’s now look at the team positions this year compared to last, starting with the offense.

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