Week 14 Hot Hands and Cold Shoulders: You Know Where This is Going

I thought we’d do things a little differently this week. By this point, I expect that most of you know who you are starting and sitting during these critical weeks of the fantasy playoffs . As such, I don’t think you’ll need as much help deciding which players to start and sit.

Trust is as important a factor as any, and you have to go with your trustworthy guys.

So, rather than give you a few players with good games and a few players with bad games this week, we’d be better served just talking about what you can expect from those studs this week and what chances are worth taking for the playoffs .

For starters, the Fourth & 1 Debate fantasy football roundtable covered a few players who, while under the radar most of the season, could make a big splash in the fantasy playoffs . My pick is San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith, but you’ll have to go and read the full debate to see my reasoning. It’s good. Promise.

And it’s especially good if you need a sub for Peyton Manning in Week 16, when he is likely to sit out the second half, denying you those fantasy points you need in the championship.

Fanhous e lays out a very strategic plan to attack the playoffs , and a nice set of players to help you do so. I agree with most of their adds, but don’t jump all over the young guns they recommend. Sure, they look good now, but will they really be trustworthy enough to start? I doubt it. Fantasy Joe ’s Mike Gilbert doubts waiver wire studs Devin Thomas and Louis Murphy , too.

So, if you need the depth or just want to keep them out of the hands of your opponent, go get ‘em. Otherwise, keep your most trusted fantasy cogs close at hand and on your roster.

As FF Toolbox points out , Joe Flacco gets the Lions, Mike Wallace may get a chance to start against the Browns tonight (Joy!), and Kevin Boss faces the tight-end-friendly Philadelphia Eagles defense. On the other hand , dark days look to continue for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. I wouldn’t want to trust DeAngelo Williams if he plays this week either after what Michael Turner did to fantasy owners in his first game back (He immediately got hurt again, as if you didn’t know).

Fantasy Football Xtreme ’s Smitty cautions against Kevin Smith and Steven Jackson, and I would agree. As great as Jackson’s been on a bad, horrible, terrible, and atrocious St. Louis Rams (did I mention they were bad?), he may hit the wall this week with Kyle Boller at quarterback against the Titans.

Not a lot of surprises from Fantasy Joe in their start or sit recommendations this week. Among the names, Chris Johnson and Ray Rice look poised and ready to do some damage. I’m sure many of their fantasy owners would appreciate it in the first rounds of the playoffs , me included.

Also noted, Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson would seem like good starts if it weren’t for Matt Cassel’s struggles and Jackson’s recent cooling off period. I’d hate to have to rely on them, but you may be forced to start them.

Unlike Fantasy Joe , I’m not as afraid of Donovan McNabb against the Giants. He may be able to put two good games together against them this year, especially if he gets top target DeSean Jackson back this week.

By the way, in one of my leagues, the owner of Chris Johnson didn’t make the playoffs … in a 10-team league in which six, and let me say that twice, SIX teams made the cut. Do you realize how bad you have to be to not make the playoffs with Chris Johnson? Bad. So very, very bad. Rams bad.

Davone Bess and Chris Brown are two intriguing names in the sleeper pool. I’d pass on starting them over someone who got you to the playoffs , but they aren’t bad flex plays this week. Brown more so than Bess. Fanhouse likes Bess as well.

The FF Geek Blog predicts some struggle for the Land Baron and some promising returns on Jamaal Charles as he goes in against Buffalo, but my favorite note thus far was their take on Antonio Bryant ’s bad situation this week: “Antonio Bryant , Buccaneers vs NYJ – Darrelle Revis.” That pretty much says it all.

In keeping with the theme of starting the guys who got you there, ESPN ’s rankings look pretty familiar. Fanhouse doesn’t stray from the path of the studly either.

If you’re current options are a little sketchy, Fantasy Joe recommends trying the Titans and Cardinals defenses over the Steelers this week, but I can’t fully support the Cardinals defense as an option when they are facing my pick to be an explosive fantasy force this week, Alex Smith. I’m just glad I have the Saints D/ST to set and forget.

Song to Ease Your Pain While Setting Lineups

Now, since I know you can’t set your rosters without musical accompaniment, I give you your very own “Choose Your Own Adventure” of songs to set your roster to this week.

If you’re awesome: Three Days Grace – Animal I Have Become

Rage? Yes. Awesomeness? Completely. Playoff-worthy? Most definitely.

But if you’re hurting and a little worried about your game this week, I offer the more melodious but still awesome: Kings of Leon – Use Somebody

If only your stud players were still showing up. Will that one waiver wire claim you picked up this week save your team? Alex Smith? Jamaal Charles? Only time will tell. Good luck with that one.

And with that, I leave you to your games this week. Best of luck to those of you in the playoffs , and sorry to hear about those of you who are not. If you have any questions, you know what to do. Hit us up in the comments or get in touch .

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fourth and One Debate: Waiver Wire Stashes for the NFL Fantasy Playoffs

So you’re prepping your team for the final push, but you’re worried you need a couple more warm bodies? Well, that’s not a problem. That’s what a fantasy football roundtable is for.

This week’s Fourth & 1 Debate topic came from Hatty Waiver Wire Guru . He asked:

Waivers are about to close in some leagues for the playoffs; who should we be grabbing for the final push?

My entry to the fantasy football roundtable :

Two players that I’d grab for the final playoff push are Mike Bell and Mohamed Massaquoi. There are far better options out there if you’re making a playoff push, but I’m assuming that both of these players would be available in most leagues right now as free agents.

Bell has been vulturing touchdowns from Pierre Thomas throughout the season, and while I’d hate to rely on him in a critical playoff week, if you were forced to start him, I wouldn’t consider it the end of the world. Bell has a chance to score in every game the Saints play from now until the end of the season, and he’s been the closer for the Saints in games they put away early.

Massaquoi is part of one of the most miserable offenses in the NFL. Luckily, he gets to play two of the most miserable defenses in the NFL in Weeks 15-16, the Chiefs and the Raiders. If you need a desperation play wide receiver for Week 15 or 16 due to injuries , Massaquoi might just do the trick. In deeper leagues, he’s worth considering for a WR3 spot those two weeks.

For all this week’s entries to the Fourth & 1 Debate, check out the complete fantasy football roundtable at Hatty Waiver Wire Guru .

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

On the Wire: Week 12 Pickups, Playoff Prep, and Matt Leinart

Is there anything sadder than two coaches from the worst teams in the league arguing about who cheated? There are sad clown faces, and then there are SAD CLOWN FACES, people.

I’m pretty sure half the NFL wishes that this game wasn’t even televised. It might fool some people into believing that the Browns and the Lions are good teams.

 

Despite their big fantasy days Sunday, the downward-trending Browns and unfortunate Lions are not fantasy starters. They only get to play each other once this year.

Obviously, last week’s running back pickups look like fantastic grabs this week if your league neglected to snatch them up. Look to get Jason Snelling, Beanie Wells, and Jamaal Charles before anyone else on this list, but here are a few additional notes on some of the guys from last week and some new names.

No long-term investments this week as we approach the end of the fantasy season.

Hot Claims

Justin Forsett, RB, Seattle Seahawks — The receiving game made him a stud last week, and now he gets to face the Rams. I still don’t love his situation, but he makes a solid starter for your lineups this week.

Chris Chambers, WR, Kansas City Chiefs — He’s filling in adequately for Dwayne Bowe and would be a great receiver to add for depth if you are making a push for the playoffs.

Vince Young, QB, Tennessee Titans — While it seemed optimistic at first to consider him a dark horse stud for the fantasy playoffs, it’s looking more realistic than optimistic now. His consistent production and the confidence he showed in Houston have compelled me to rate him as a solid backup quarterback if you’re current starter doesn’t have a kind schedule in Weeks 14-16.

Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants — Eli Manning just realized how to use Boss again this season, and he’s making up for lost time. If your tight end hasn’t lived up to expectations, it might be time to show him who’s the Boss.

Rock Cartwright, RB, Washington Redskins — He gets to start in Washington by process of elimination. Portis won’t return in Week 12, and Betts is out for the season. Look for Washington to bring in some veteran depth as support, but for now, Cartwright is your starter against the Eagles.

Bernard Scott, RB, Cincinnati Bengals — He impressed against the Raiders, and this week, he gets the Browns. Best hope Cedric Benson sits one more week.

And if you’re really having trouble filling up that roster…

Matt Leinart, QB, Arizona Cardinals — If Warner were out for the rest of the season, I’d say you must own Leinart. Right now, Warner might not even miss a game, and that’s a good thing considering how terrible Leinart looked replacing Warner at the end of the game against the Rams. And yes, let me repeat that was against the RAMS. I shudder to think what Leinart could do to ruin the fantasy playoff plans of many a Larry Fitzgerald owner if Arizona is forced to start him for a few weeks.

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills — Marshawn Lynch injured his shoulder Sunday. Lynch could be ready to go in Week 12, but there’s a chance Jackson gets to carry the full load. During Lynch’s suspension, Jackson was a beast, but he’ll face the Dolphins on Sunday and Jets (in Canada) next Thursday if he gets the call.

Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans Saints — He’s suddenly become a reliable red zone target for the Saints and for fantasy teams. That’s worth stashing on your bench if you’re prepping for a playoff run.

Danny Ware, RB, New York Giants — His value increases if Brandon Jacobs sits, but it looks like that won’t happen. Just keep an eye on this situation.

Larry Johnson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals — Johnson didn’t shoulder much of the load on Sunday, but he could take on more of the offense in the coming weeks against the Browns and the Lions. I think Scott would have to show some inexperience or an inability to make the play for the Bengals in order for L.J. to take over as the starter during Cedric Benson’s absence.

Daunte Culpepper, QB, Detroit Lions — Looks like he’ll be facing the Packers since Matthew Stafford injured his shoulder against the Browns on Sunday, but something tells me you won’t be thankful for his performance on Turkey Day.

Kyle Boller, QB, St. Louis Rams — Matchups are good, but Boller is not. He will have to prove himself for me to trust him, and I am just hoping that he doesn’t cut into Steven Jackson’s value.

Mike Bell, RB, New Orleans Saints — Pierre Thomas just can’t win. With Reggie Bush out, the Saints let Mike Bell get two touchdowns while Thomas was held scoreless. While he’ll never be a lock for any points, Bell could vulture more touchdowns down the stretch as the Saints have one of the weaker schedules against the run.

Jason Avant, WR, Philadelphia Eagles — He’s not the first or second receiver on the depth chart, but the Eagles throw enough to keep him productive. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t trust him to keep it up when it counts.

Mohamed Massaquoi, WR, Cleveland Browns — Massaquoi can certainly tear up the Lions’ secondary, but unless you’re desperate for a starter during one of his two easy-as-cake matchups in the fantasy playoffs, you might find better use for a roster spot than a Browns receiver.

Brandon Gibson, WR, St. Louis Rams — He’s getting a lot of targets, and St. Louis has some favorable matchups down the stretch. But don’t forget that he’s still a Ram. Kyle Boller also takes over as the starter this week.

A Note on Fantasy Defenses for the Playoffs

If you’re in the hunt, David Dorey of TheHuddle.com put together an excellent preview of how defenses should perform in the fantasy playoffs. If you, like me, took a chance on picking up the New Orleans Saints and hanging onto them all year in Week 5, you should be pretty happy with his top four: New Orleans, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Green Bay.

Owners of the Jets’ defense probably won’t like the read as much.

For more waiver wire action, compare notes with The FF Geek Blog, Fanhouse, and Fantasy Joe.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

On the Wire: Week Nine Pickups and Must-Claims

There’s nothing glamorous about pickups at this point in the season. You’re either struggling to find meaning in your season after falling desperately behind the rest of the teams in your league, or fortifying and defending your team by building a stronger bench with these free agents.

But the picks are especially un-sexy this week. Pick ‘em if you gotta.

 
Hot Claims

Ryan Moats , RB, Houston Texans: While Steve Slaton warmed the bench and thought about what he had done (fumbled), Moats ran for 126 yards and three touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills. And don’t forget about his 25 yards receiving. As a part of the Texans’ offense, Moats is very Slaton-like, but he also saw most of the goal line work on Sunday.

While we’d all like to hum ourselves to sleep and believe Slaton will be the unquestioned starter again heading into Week Nine against the Colts, Coach Kubiak won’t give us that comfort. He’s saying that all three backs, Slaton, Moats, and Chris Brown, could play on Sunday, which leaves it up in the air whether Slaton can get his job back.

Whether you have the room or not, all smart Slaton owners will have to pick up Moats this week or risk missing the boat on the Texans’ running game. Those who don’t own Slaton could look at Moats as a speculation grab. If Houston elects to keep him as a starter, we might just have to learn to love him like our own top-drafted Texans running back.

Malcom Floyd , WR, San Diego Chargers: Chris Chambers ’ release is a vote of confidence in Floyd, who has shined in a limited role for the Chargers since last season, when injuries forced him into starting duty. Now that he’s on the field as the No. 2 every week, he’s a must-claim in all formats.

The Chargers are a passing team, and Floyd’s big frame is a weapon in the end zone. As Vincent Jackson draws coverage, Floyd will find success.

Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets: The young tight end played a big part in the offense on Sunday. If this one-game performance suggests he’ll be more involved in the future, he’s worth adding.

Mark Sanchez hasn’t been the most exciting quarterback to watch, but playing from behind forced him to include Keller and unleash the full offense on Miami. The Jets’ receivers and Keller can only get better and more in-sync with Sanchez over the bye week.

Jamaal Charles , RB, Kansas City Chiefs: Larry Johnson slurred his way off the field with a two-week suspension and left the much more promising Charles at the top of the depth chart. He may not hold up to every-down running, but he’s explosive enough to make a play when called upon.

His chance has come at a good time. The matchups are in his favor as he faces Jacksonville and Oakland with the Browns and Bills still on the schedule for the fantasy playoffs.

If you have the bench room to stash Charles, do it, but he’s a risky start until we see how Kansas City will use him as the feature back.

Fantasy Filler

 

Vince Young , QB, Tennessee Titans : He didn’t blow us out of the water with 125 yards and a score on Sunday, but he didn’t disappoint, either. His stats could improve as he gains confidence in this starting role, and his legs will bump his fantasy points when the passing yards aren’t there.

Young is worth adding if you need a backup quarterback or want to take a chance with a third quarterback on your roster.

Justin Fargas, RB, Oakland Raiders : Still productive when needed and when the matchup is right. Still a Raider.

Maurice Morris, RB, Detroit Lions: Much like Moats, Morris showed up in place of Kevin Smith in the Detroit’s “Showdown of Champions” against the Rams on Sunday. Smith went out with an injury, but he claims he could have played more if called upon.

Now, talk suggests Morris could share time in a RBBC with Smith going forward, but Smith will be working to prove he’s everything he’s cracked up to be the rest of this season. In a pinch, you can grab Morris, but how much can half the Lions’ run game really help you?

Joel Dressen, TE, Houston Texans: With Owen Daniels out for the season, we’d like to see what Swiss-Army-knife-of-the-gridiron James Casey could do. Unfortunately, we won’t . Instead, we get Joel Dressen. Schaub will make him a target, but Dressen is no Owen Daniels.

Kevin Boss, TE, New York Giants: Eli Manning had to target Boss as the Eagles attacked him on Sunday, and Manning gave him his best game of the season. I don’t see seventy yards and a touchdown happening every week, especially if the Giants can’t get their offense (and Eli Manning) back on track.

Eli just hasn’t utilized the tight end much this year, but he might change that against the Chargers in Week Nine. Boss did suffer a small injury on Sunday, but he was able to return, so it doesn’t seem like a concern.

LenDale White , RB, Tennessee Titans : He didn’t do much of anything on Sunday, but his role could expand if the Titans become more of a running team under Vince Young than they were with Kerry Collins . Having a lead to protect will help on that front.

If you’re desperate for a running back, White is an option to add in deeper leagues.

Leonard Weaver , RB, Philadelphia Eagles : The big man took carries behind LeSean McCoy on Sunday for some big numbers, but Brian Westbrook ’s return should mean the end of his fantasy usefulness.

Dropables

 

Don’t just drop these players because they are listed here (unless it’s Marc Bulger), but if you have more promising candidates to add to your roster, these players can all be let go to make room.

-Marc Bulger, Marc Bulger, Marc Bulger
-Fred Jackson
-Derek Anderson
-Ryan Fitzpatrick
-Larry Johnson
-Owen Daniels
-Chris Chambers (if you don’t want to see where he lands next)
-Julius Jones
-Donnie Avery

Think I’m too foolish for your tastes? More great waiver wire picks from Fantasy Joe , FF Toolbox , Fantasy Football Librarian and The Hazean .

 

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Guest Post: 2009 NFL preview from a fantasy outsider

This guest post comes to Fantasy Football Fools from Eric Amzallag of sports pick site UnlockedSports.com. Rather than stay in our fantasy bubble this season, I thought taking a look at the playoff picks from a relative fantasy outsider would be a nice jump start to the conversation—since, inevitably, my Super Bowl and playoff picks would be largely influenced by what players I have invested in this season.

I think Eric makes some interesting calls that should get us talking, but keep in mind that Eric sent these to us this offseason before much of the news had been made.

Feel free to share your own playoff predictions on this glorious Sunday of football in the comments. We’ll give greater cred to those who post before their picks destroy opponents in their opening game this week. Now on with the show…

Now that football season is quickly approaching, fans, poolers, and bettors are eager to gather as much information as they can to make some informed sports picks in the upcoming season.

Every single year, we seem to come into the NFL season with all eyes on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots to win it all. There is nothing wrong with that. The Patriots always have a great team surrounding arguably the best quarterback of our time.

But times are a-changing, and this season we will see some new teams in the running for the Lombardi trophy. With a relatively painless offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers will be looking to repeat and have a good chance to do so.

Don’t count out these playoff contenders from the AFC:

• Indianapolis Colts: Peyton Manning! With Peyton behind center the Colts will always be contenders.
• Oakland Raiders: The AFC West is the worst division in football right now, and the Raiders are the only team with promise and a good, young core of players. This year will be the season they break out of the funk.
• Buffalo Bills: Although some people disagree, getting T.O. was huge for the Bills. Not only will their offense be hard to stop with two star receivers, a promising young quarterback and Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, but they are well-coached and poised to have a breakout season.

The NFC is another beast altogether. The Arizona Cardinals will be good but not as good as they were last season. The Dallas Cowboys may have dropped some baggage, but this year will be a make-or-break season for Tony Romo.

In the NFC, watch for these teams to make an impact this season:

• Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner and Roddy White! ‘Nuff said.
• Dallas Cowboys: Do or die! If the Cowboys are going to stay in the title contender picture they will need to come together. This season will be the one that defines them, and I think they will come through.
• San Francisco 49ers: Kind of a sleeper pick here, but I am sticking with it for one reason, Mike Singletary’s first full season.
• Chicago Bears: Although the defense was suspect last season, this year everything is going to come together for Chicago. Not only will the defense get back to its stingy ways, but with Jay Cutler in the offense, this team could be scary!

So those are Eric’s picks, made right around the time of the NFL draft this offseason. Who do you think is going to win it all this year? You can check out more from Eric and UnlockedSports.com.

As always, the comments are yours.

 

 

Related Articles:

• A Fool and His Money – Week 1
• Hair Model Mock Draft 2009: Tweaking the System
• Foolish Thoughts on Week 6: Last-second nonsense
• Foolish Thoughts: Foolish Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 12 Quarterbacks by ADP

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Contest: Win a Free Season of Dominator Service Player Alerts

Now that you have your fantasy football team drafted and ready for action, you should be looking for any way to get an edge on the rest of your league. Besides subscribing to Fantasy Football Fools, another great way to stay in the know is by signing up for player news alerts.

Top Fantasy Football recently contacted us to offer one free subscription to their Dominator Service to one lucky Fantasy Football Fools reader, and we decided to make it happen. It is, after all, a special day with it being 9/9/09, the final day before the regular season begins. Keep reading to find out how to enter.

Their Dominator Service sends out updates about waiver wire pickups and notifications on up to 20 preselected players of your choice. You also get injury news and game day weather updates to save you time researching each week.

It’s almost like the Dominator Service makes fantasy football your significant other — girlfriend, boyfriend, wife, puppy or houseplant, as the case may be. From time to time, you get a message with an important update that you have to act on immediately. The rest of the time, you may get a few flirty texts or email messages that keep you informed and in touch with your fantasy football team’s inner feelings and emotion.

It’s really much less like “The View” than I just made it sound. You can see everything that comes with the dominator service at Top Fantasy Football.

To enter to win this free service for the 2009 season, all you have to do is leave a comment on this post at Fantasy Football Fools (for the sake of having them all in the same place), and, in your comment, tell us why you need to win your fantasy football league this year. Comments that do not include an explanation of why you deserve the Dominator Service this season will not be considered.

Note: Humor will be taken into account when choosing the winner of this contest. While the most important thing is to leave a comment with a reason, the more entertaining your comment is, the better.

For example, explaining that you need to win because your league mate recently stole your lunch money, your girlfriend or your job will win you special bonus points. We have a soft spot for revenge tales.

On Thursday night (or Friday if we have to wait for a few more comments), we’ll select a winner based upon how much we liked a particular comment and how many “likes” it received within our new Disqus commenting system on this post. The winner will be notified and setup within the Dominator Service system by Top Fantasy Football.

So that’s it. Make sure to get a comment posted to Fantasy Football Fools by Thursday night. That’s tomorrow! And don’t forget to subscribe to receive our updates from Fantasy Football Fools while you’re at it.

Make your stories good, but try not to make anyone cry, okay? After watching Seven Pounds this weekend and talking to OU fans, I don’t need to see any more tears this week.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football: Three RBBCs to Target in Fantasy Football Drafts (Guest Post)

This second guest post comes to us all the way across the pond from Ross Mooring of Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth. This article is a follow up to his first guest post on three RBBCs to avoid in your drafts this season.

It’s now time to look at the running-back-by-committees (RBBC) that fantasy owners should try to monopolize in drafts this year. In most cases, fantasy players should study RBBC situations and draft only the favorites to receive the most carries when the time is right, but some teams possess running backs who collectively are undervalued or that, when drafted together, increase the value and reliability of those players.

Dallas Cowboys

A fit (well, fitter) Marion Barber is a surefire fantasy workhorse. One of the toughest running backs in the game, Barber is not only a threat on the goal line but also receiving out of the backfield. He will get every yard available.

MBIII has shockingly been falling to the beginning of the third round in 12-team drafts, mainly because of the presence of Felix Jones. This fall makes Barber an absolute steal given his propensity to carry the rock into the end zone on a weekly basis.

Jones still represents draft value at the very end of the sixth round, but here’s the clincher: the two of them offer different skill sets, don’t mutually deplete fantasy value very much and will be given enough touches to produce fantasy points.

Barber cannot carry the ball 25 times per game without breaking down while Jones is a threat in space, not in short-yardage situations. Take both with glee, and if you smell an injury, Tashard Choice won’t be waiver-wire fodder for long.

Indianapolis Colts

I’m making a joke, right? The Colts’ backfield, the very same backfield that struggled immensely in 2008, is one of the top three to target in 2009? Yes, it is!

Last year, not only did Joseph Addai have injury problems, but so did three of his offensive linemen and Peyton Manning. All have returned to good health this season. One must remember that Indianapolis is an offensive machine—always has been, always will be. At least while Manning is around…

Between Addai and rookie Donald Brown, we either have one back who will produce RB1 stat lines or two backs who will post RB2 and RB3 numbers. At the very worst, drafting both guarantees you will have insurance against an Addai injury.

You can wait on taking a second back through the first three or even four rounds—yes, Addai has been falling that far (ADP: 5.08!)—and secure the most undervalued RBBC in all of football in the sixth or seventh round.

Just make sure you don’t get arrested for robbery at the end of the year.

San Diego Chargers

The word on the grapevine is that last year was an offensive hiccup for San Diego, not in terms of total output but in the fact that the Chargers succeeded by passing the football and not running it.

With an improved defense (Shawne Merriman single-handedly improves this unit), why not control the game by slowing it down on the ground and letting Philip Rivers air it out with play action when necessary?

With LaDainian Tomlinson hitting the big 3-0 and Darren Sproles not yet a seasoned pro, one could be forgiven for doubting them, but L.T. is a once-in-a-decade back. A single season of wear and tear is not going to bring him down. A pick in the latter half of the first round—anywhere after that is a steal—represents value.

The kicker is that Sproles, who is playing under a franchise tag, is not going until late in the eighth round. If you’re in the right draft slot, take them both and sleep well knowing you have guaranteed yourself some big production at running back.

And one more bonus RBBC…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Editor’s Note: Tampa Bay was originally the third team to target until recent news revealed the 2-2-1 split they plan to use with Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams. Take these words as you will now that we know this committee will be very divided…

Tampa Bay is one of a couple of backfields that will be drafted late, mainly because of the lack of standout names but also because the statistical ceiling isn’t quite as sexy as it is elsewhere.

Make no mistake, Derrick Ward and Earnest Graham will consistently notch points for fantasy owners in 2009. The former will score with the bulk of the carries and the latter with the bulk of the touchdowns.

The advantage of this RBBC is that Tampa Bay does not have much of a passing game to hang its hat on. Antonio Bryant is unpredictable and potentially unreliable, and the same could be said of Kellen Winslow and his health issues. On top of that, the quarterback situation is confusing, and there seems to be little reason for Raheem Morris to do anything but lean on the run.

Ward has been drafted right at the end of the fourth round (steal), and Graham has seen his number called as late as the end of the tenth round (bigger steal!).

Do you agree or disagree with Ross on these RBBCs to target? As always, the comments are yours. Read more of Ross’ writing at Never Kick a Gift Horse in the Teeth.

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• Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 24 Running Backs by ADP
• First Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for 2009
• Hair Model Mock Draft 2009: Tweaking the System
• Random ESPN Mock Draft: Results May Vary
• Fantasy Football Fools’ 2008 Average Joe Mock Draft

Brandon Marshall Suspended for the Rest of Preseason

“Wait, Coach, you mean THIS will get me suspended? I just thought I was mailing it in at Kyle Orton’s performance level…”

Yes, Brandon Marshall, that will get you suspended for the rest of the preseason. For now, Brandon Marshall’s not set to miss games once the regular season begins, but Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio thinks he could miss more time before this dispute is resolved.

And though Marshall’s plan likely is to be disruptive without providing full-blown cause for a conclusion that he’s acting like Terrell Owens circa 2005, what we saw in that video is, in our view, enough to justify sending him home for the first four weeks of the season, at a total salary loss of $517,000.

Marshall’s not helping his case by acting up in practice, and many teams will sit back to see if they can get Marshall at a discount rate when all of this blows up completely on Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos.

Surely, you don’t want this guy on any of your fantasy football rosters this year. If he gets traded, he could increase his value, but a trade looks unlikely this early in the season. I would stay away from Brandon Marshall in your upcoming fantasy football draft, but Eddie Royal may not be bad bargain. Royal is currently the Broncos’ best starting wide receiver.

As always, the comments are yours. How do you feel about Brandon Marshall?

Related Articles:

• Maybe that’s why Brandon Marshall wanted out of Denver
• Foolish Thoughts: Foolish Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• First Round Fantasy Football Draft Strategy for 2009
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• Fantasy Draft Day Pick or Pass: Top 36 Wide Receivers by ADP

The Favre Effect: Brett Favre’s Fantasy Impact on the Minnesota Vikings

It’s easy to hate Brett Favre right now. In fact, it’s encouraged.

Just as we were about to lock in Sage Rosenfels as the starting quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings, Favre decides to show up after the toils of training camp and sign a contract for, you know, whatever the Vikings could find in the couch.

Most NFL franchises might have moved on after they were “turned down” the first time. But no, not Brad Childress. Childress would have stood outside Favre’s house in the rain in a trenchcoat holding a contract over his head until the greatest player Childress has ever wished to have on his team finally accepted him.

After all, what’s the use of team chemistry at this point in the season? We got a month to put it all back together and forgive, right guys?

I would say that this move to obtain Favre looks even more “look-at-me-doing-everything-I-can-to-win-the-Super-Bowl” than the New York Jets’ reach for him last season, but I actually think Favre fits better in Minnesota than he did in New York, since he already knows the offense.

That said, it’s hard to like the guy.

Favre still has skills and opportunity, but I don’t think I would want to have him on my fantasy team. Call me indecisive. Harrumph.

 

Sage Rosenfels vs. Brett Favre

 

As I’ve previously argued, Brett Favre doesn’t impact the rest of the Vikings’ squad significantly by coming in for Sage Rosenfels and Tarvaris Jackson. Besides ego, age, and legend status, the physical attributes that Sage and Favre bring to the table are similar and Tarvaris would have been a long shot to start Week 1.

Brett Favre’s got a great arm, many years of experience, and loves to throw the ball down field, even when it’s going to be intercepted. That’s what a gunslinger does. As long as he stays healthy, he adds that vertical dimension to the Vikings’ offense that they’ve lacked with Jackson under center.

Take a little bit away from the experience column and Rosenfels offers the same arm strength and irresponsibility, but he does also enjoy helicopters.

Fantasy Impact on the Minnesota Vikings

 

Running Backs: Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor

If that’s the way your leaning already, Favre’s signing in Minnesota should cement Adrian Peterson as the consensus No. 1 pick. Just look at Thomas Jones’ performance last season. With Favre’s arm, defenses have to give Peterson room to run, and the Vikings have a strong run-blocking line just like the Jets built last offseason for Jones.

Opposing defenses might have felt the same way about Rosenfels, once he beat a few teams who didn’t respect his abilities, but we’ll never know for sure.

Rosenfels aside, Favre also adds a concern for Peterson.

A.P. often needs close to 20 carries each game to be effective and score his touchdowns. If Chester Taylor continues to take carries away from A.P. and Favre allows the Vikings to do more in the passing game, Peterson could have limited opportunities this season. If the game plan calls for shutting down Peterson and letting Favre do what he will, Peterson’s owners lose in a big way.

 

Receiving Options: Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe

Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, and Visanthe Shiancoe all have a better outlook this season, but the upgrade isn’t significant enough for me to recommend drafting them any higher than their current average draft positions, or ADP.

Other than Berrian and Shiancoe, all the receiving threats for the Vikings are a little risky and inconsistent. Berrian will get a slight upgrade now that we know who’s throwing to him, but his history suggests his numbers will stay the same.

Shiancoe was a low-end tight end at best despite his big fantasy point total at the end of last season, and he stands to benefit if Favre’s love of the tight end comes with him to Minnesota. As of now, Shiancoe could still go undrafted in many fantasy leagues, but he might be worth grabbing if he gels with Favre.

 

Minnesota Vikings Team Defense

Here is where things get interesting. The Vikings defense could suffer from the addition of Favre because with Favre comes turnovers. Getting stuck on their own side of the field could prevent the Vikings from keeping the score low, and if any games become blowouts as a result of Favre’s arm, the defense will probably give the opponent a little slack.

The Vikings are usually a stout defense, but facing Cutler’s Bears and Rodgers’ Packers this season with Favre handing the ball over a time or two every game could wear on them in a hurry. I’d drop them a few spots in your rankings after Favre’s signing.

 

Where To Draft Brett Favre?

Now that he’s back, Favre is a middle-of-the-pack backup fantasy quarterback in most leagues. He’s got weapons and a great running back, but he’s still a threat to fall apart near the end of the season. He’s not a bad option to bet on near the late rounds of your draft, but I’d rather have a guy with more upside like Trent Edwards, who probably carries about the same draft stock right now.

So there you have it, the Favre effect. He makes the Vikings slightly better than they were without him. Do I think the Vikings are Super Bowl bound? Not likely. The Vikings have to prove that they’re better than the Green Bay Packers Favre left with Aaron Rodgers and the Chicago Bears with new quarterback Jay Cutler.

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Michael Vick Signs with Philadelphia Eagles, Playing Tight End?

When you think about it, an eagle is just an older, more mature cousin to the falcon. I guess once you’re a bird, you’re always a bird.

Michael Vick finally landed in Philadelphia after an offseason of speculation. The most recent rumors had him signing with the Patriots or Bills, but the Eagles jumped to work out a deal this week after current backup quarterback Kevin Kolb went down with a knee injury.

The Eagles expect Kolb to return “in about a week,” but his injury along with all the other freak injuries the Eagles have had in camp may have urged them to err on the side of caution and add more depth with Vick.

Current statements from McNabb and Andy Reid suggest there is no threat to McNabb’s starting job or Kolb’s backup role, but if that is the case, how will Vick be involved in this offense?

One theory out there has him slotted as a tight end, but can you really believe what you hear on TMZ? It’s an interesting proposal, nonetheless, since playing Vick at tight end would keep him on the roster each week without unseating Kolb or McNabb and allow for some creative playcalling with Vick, McNabb and Brian Westbrook on the field at the same time.

From a fantasy perspective, getting him on the field more can only serve to increase his value. If put on a shelf as a backup quarterback or used only in a Wildcat role, Vick’s fantasy stock would be nothing more than as a late flier in your drafts this season. As a tight end, he might really be worth something.

We know that the Eagles are in “win now” mode this year. McNabb isn’t getting any younger and Philly fans have tasted blood too often not to have made it to a Super Bowl in recent years.

Three weapons in the backfield may be the surest way to guarantee they make it as far as possible this season even if their defense comes up shorter than expected without their starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley or Brian Dawkins’ leadership.

On less of a fantasy note, the reactions to the Vick signing have been mixed. The NFL’s tweeting players seem excited, but some NFL fans are having a hard time accepting the news. When it comes to Philly fans, every single one of them that types in all caps seems to like this decision.

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