The 10 Worst NFL Games of the Decade

The era of the Sunday Ticket has made it possible for many more people to miss out on the awful moments in the NFL during the 2000s. Sadly, technology is still lagging and too many fans were stuck watching some awful football during the decade.

There were plenty of games to review for the worst of the decade (the entire Lions 2008 season, about 50 Bills games, most NFC West games for the last five years), and I’ve narrowed it down to 10.

Luckily, I avoided watching some of these games for research; however, the few I did see will haunt me for years. Maybe this should have been a Halloween article.

 

10. Eagles 10, Rams 3 (2002)

This game makes the list mostly because it was a national game, a championship game rematch, and was sloppy and a mess offensively. Both teams combined for nine fumbles, and Kurt Warner threw two interceptions in the contest that best symbolized the end of “The Greatest Show on Turf.” Give credit to the Eagles’ aggressive defense in this game, however, as it was a huge game that was a huge bust with zero scoring in the second half.

 

9. Green Bay 10, Buffalo 0 (2002)

Drew Bledsoe must have taken the season off early, as he fumbled four times and threw two picks, yet the Packers could only score 10 points because they played pretty badly as well. To give you a sense of the Bills’ sad play this day, they had 17 first downs and 185 yards. That is pretty tough to do and was very tough to watch.

 

8. Carolina 10, Atlanta 3 (2006)

Somehow the Michael Vick-Chris Weinke quarterback battle didn’t pan out. A sign of a bad game is when the coach knows his man under center is so bad that he only gets to attempt seven passes. Chris Weinke went 4-of-7 passing and Carolina ran the ball 52 times in what at least was a quick bad game. Vick only completed nine passes, and neither team had 200 yards total offense. There was no scoring in the second half and no interest, either.

 

7. San Francisco 9, Minnesota 3 (2006)

To refresh your memory, the Niners had allowed 89 points in their two previous games. For Minnesota to score only three points and gain 238 yards took a special effort of terrible football. Making Minnesota’s effort even worse was the fact that the Niners had a total of 133 yards of offense. No touchdowns of course and the longest play of the game was 22 yards. Teams should not win games with eight first downs.

 

6. Detroit 9, Dallas 7 (2002)

When Joey Harrington and Chad Hutchinson battled, the world was silent. Mostly because they were asleep. Detroit had only 148 yards in the game and somehow still won. Detroit’s offensive players included James Stewart, Bill Schroeder, Az Hakim, Scotty Anderson, John Owens, Cory Schlesinger, and Mikhael Ricks. Luckily, they also had Jason Hanson, who kicked three 40-plus-yard field goals.

 

5. Tampa Bay 12, Carolina 9 (2002)

It should be pointed out this is the 2002 game, since both teams somehow played a 12-9 game the next year. At least that game had a touchdown and over 600 yards combined offense. The 2002 version had 386 yards combined and six turnovers. What else would you expect when Rob Johnson and Randy Fasani met?

This year’s Rams-Lions game has to be the lowest rated game of the decade, but this has to be a close second. Fasani went 5-of-18 for 46 yards and three interceptions and never started another NFL game again. Martin Gramatica did add excitement by kicking three fourth-quarter field goals, including the winning 47-yarder. Most everyone had tuned out by then.

 

4. Atlanta 6, Arizona 3 (2004)

They actually combined for over 500 yards, which is amazing when considering the score was 6-3. Such a low score with ball movement makes this game special, where it may have had moments of excitement but was so horribly played. Both teams had four turnovers and combined for nine fumbles.

Had it been a massive snow storm, the number of fumbles might be understandable, but this was in Atlanta. No touchdowns, the field goals weren’t even exciting, yet the Falcons were 3-0 after this game. Some wins should count for less than one in the “W” column.

 

3. Pittsburgh 3, Miami 0 (2007)

This was a Monday Night Football game, but ESPN should have shown poker instead. Miami was 0-10 going into the game, the field was an absolute mess like it always is at Heinz, and rain poured on the awful field all day. The game started 25 minutes late because of lightning, but unfortunately the lightning ended and the game began.

Combined, the teams gained 375 yards and the only score took place with 17 seconds to go on a 24-yard field goal. The field was sloppy, the game was sloppy, and the play luckily did not extend into overtime.

 

2. Cleveland 6, Buffalo 3 (2009)

This may have been the game that killed my Bills fandom forever. I hated football and despised myself after this mess. Trent Edwards was bad, and Derek Anderson was horrendous.

Anderson completed 2-of-17 passes, and Cleveland somehow won nonetheless. The Bills had nine false-start penalties, at home, which has to be a record for pathetic play.

It was so sad that I knew how the game would end. Roscoe Parrish would make a dumb play on a punt and fumble and Cleveland would recover and win with a field goal.

Of course that happened and Billy Cundiff kicked an 18-yarder for the victory. The Bills may have lost on the scoreboard, but the real losers were the idiots who watched for three hours.

 

1. Cincinnati 13, Philadelphia 13 (2008)

The worst game of the decade had no winners, though the tie actually did help out the Eagles in the long run.

Any game that lasted four hours and resembled a car wreck scene stands out from the rest. I’ve never seen both teams punt with less than two minutes to go in overtime.

Nobody wanted to win the game, and the Eagles thought they could win it in double-OT, which doesn’t exist in the regular season, even though the rules are explained during the OT coin toss in every game that takes extra time.

I think both teams wanted to get to a shootout or some football equivalent, since there were also three punts after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter. The quality of play in this game was unspeakably bad and easily stands out as the worst game of the decade, which is saying a lot.

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The NFL Stinks: The Dreaded Dozen

The NFL easily has the best marketing in sports, and this year they need to.

The speed of the game and the injuries the play causes, the expansion to 32 teams and massive over-coaching have been some factors leading to this being the worst NFL season in modern history.

Only three games last week had a victory margin of seven points or less. The previous week only had two.

The quality of play stinks. For the first time in 11 years, I am questioning my NFL Sunday Ticket subscription. Why am I paying $300 when I can see a majority of the important games for free? In many cases, by not paying for it I would have no opportunity to see quality games like Titans-Jaguars or Lions-Rams.

In previous years, the NFL had a lot of mediocre teams, but this year the league is filled with really bad teams. Let’s have some fun and explore their awfulness:

 

Buffalo is awful because the owner is a clueless demon and the coach appears to have zero interest in winning. The philosophy of the franchise is to see how much they can annoy their fan base in hopes of finding a richer city and more money. Teams where the fans are rooting for the owner to die are terrible.

 

Oakland is awful because the owner is paranoid and crazy. The franchise player might be a backup if he returned to LSU. The coach was the only person willing to take the job and now he’s headed down a path of job destruction. The Raiders draft speed over talent even if the talented players are just a bit slower. They also appear to have a desire to destroy their fan base in hopes of moving.

 

St. Louis is awful because they have one win in the last year. The win included a touchdown pass from their kicker, and a safety suffered when the only thing the Rams interceptor had to do was stay in the end zone, or out of it once he left it. If you live in St. Louis and need to watch actual football, $300 is cheap for the Sunday Ticket. The Rams currently have no active owner and are trying to sell the team and may move. Sense a trend?

 

Tampa Bay is awful because they have lost 11 games in a row. They actually thought that Byron Leftwich could start in the NFL despite his awful stint in Atlanta. They hired a head coach who appears to be lost. They also appear to have a desire to sell the team. Their hopes to get stuck in London and never come back sadly did not come true.

 

Detroit is awful because they also have just one win in the last year and lost to the Rams at home. On Sunday, the NFL presented the worst matchup in its history. The people of Detroit must be thankful for the concept of blackouts. The Lions are 1-6 and already have more material for the highlight films this year.

 

Cleveland is awful in fascinating ways. Randy Lerner must have studied the movie “Major League.” They have enacted some of the techniques to be pathetic, minus the uplifting winning. The GM had to be escorted out of the building. The franchise quarterback is being sat to avoid paying him a bonus. The current QB appears to be playing terrible on purpose. It’s a uniquely sad team. I can’t wait for Cleveland versus Oakland in December.

 

Carolina is awful, although that win in Arizona is really confusing. Carolina has no quarterback of NFL quality and makes a lot of mistakes. They lost to the Bills at home by 11, so they must be pathetic.

 

Tennessee is awful because they lost a game by 59 points this season. Tennessee has serious quarterback problems and a defense that went from strong to sad in one season. Although they beat Jacksonville, Maurice Jones-Drew had 177 yards on eight carries. They won because they faced a worse team.

 

Seattle is awful even though they have two shutouts this season. Seattle may be the king of the awful teams, as they dominate really bad teams, but are pretty bad against teams not in the Dreaded Dozen. Seattle needs a new quarterback, new running back and some good luck, because they’ve been cursed ever since the Super Bowl against the Steelers.

 

Jacksonville is awful, despite having a good shot at reaching 4-4 this week after they play the Chiefs at home. I’m sure that one will have a similar buzz to the Packers and Vikings from last week. The Jaguars just got blown out by a winless team and had to beat the Rams at home in overtime the game before. The fans have already left the Jaguars and they will probably sell and move at some time. At least the Jaguars former season-ticket holders are smart enough to use their money elsewhere.

 

Kansas City is awful because they decided to make a backup quarterback the face of their franchise while destroying another that could have made progress and been an effective starter in this league. Add to that the turmoil of Larry Johnson and the pit that Herman Edwards and Carl Peterson put the franchise in, and this will take awhile to dig out of. Kansas City fans deserve so much better.

 

Washington is the jester of awful, as they somehow beat Tampa Bay and St. Louis while providing the only victories for Detroit and Kansas City. The owner has created a laughingstock franchise. The head coach had the playcalling taken away from him even though he was hired as the offensive coordinator and became the head coach when no one wanted to work for Daniel Snyder. They lost to the Chiefs at home, a game that should have been blacked out in Kansas City, Washington and North America.

 

The NFL has a dozen terrible teams and the problem the league has is a majority of the teams owners not investing in the success of their franchises. Seattle and Carolina will come back to the realm of the acceptable. But teams like Buffalo, Oakland and Cleveland appear to be hopelessly pathetic.

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Crash Of The Titans: Woe Is Tennessee

Trust me, I’m not very proud of my pun-styled headline, but when it comes to the Tennessee Titans these days, even the coach is making attempts at bad jokes.

Maybe Jeff Fisher was hoping nobody would notice the mustache and he could get a commercial pretending to be Peyton Manning. Maybe Fisher was longing to have Manning return back to the state of Tennessee. Most likely, Jeff Fisher is trying to change the karma of the Titans, because right now sports karma is breathing fire all over Tennessee.

Last weekend, the Tennessee Titans were down at 45-0 at halftime, and Tom Brady actually came out for the first series in the second half. The Patriots were running up the score against the Titans, yet after the game there was no outrage like the Pats felt two years earlier when they showed up the Redskins.

The lack of outrage may be because the Patriots are a lot more vulnerable this year, but appears to be more of a reaction of fans recognizing that the wrath of the Sports Gods the Titans are feeling is self-inflicted.

Last year, the Titans were 13-2 and celebrating a victory against their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Lendale White, in the middle of a 15-TD season, pulled out a Steelers terrible towel and stomped all over it on the sidelines.

Since that moment, Lendale White has one TD in eight games, the Pittsburgh Steelers went on to win the Super Bowl, and the Titans are 0-8.

Most of the players are the same for Tennessee, yet the team has fallen in the tank since the towel-stomping. They lost a meaningless game to the Colts last year, then made three turnovers against the Ravens in their playoff game and lost in the last minute in a close 13-10 game. This year has become much worse for the Titans, with zero wins and one event that added a cloud to the franchise.

The schedule-maker did no favors to the Titans by having them start the season in Pittsburgh. Tennessee had chances to win the game, including the reliable Rod Bironas missing two field goals.

Then Tennessee went home and blew a 14-point lead against the Texans, even though Chris Johnson scored three TDs over 50 yards. The Titans then went on the road and struggled against the Jets and were blown out in Jacksonville, according to the few witnesses at the game.

The season officially unraveled at that moment, as the next games against the Colts and Patriots produced a combined score of 90-9. Luckily for the Titans, they don’t play this week—although I can’t imagine watching two weeks of game film from a 59 point loss is inspiring. The Lendale White towel-stomping may have been the beginning of the franchise’s downfall. The catalyst of the karma turn took place when the face of the franchise hit his downfall.

Steve McNair was the most recognizable player since the Oilers moved to Tennessee. He was the one who led that amazing drive to get in range to tie the game against the Rams. McNair was a likeable, tough guy who was very popular in Nashville, even when he went to play with the Ravens.

His death on the 4th of July was shock to Nashville and Titans fans, especially when the news came out he was murdered. The Titans are wearing a patch commemorating No. 9 on their helmets this year. 

How could someone who stayed out of trouble his entire career have this happen to him? The sad truth is, he played with fire and got burned.

McNair was married and had four kids, two with his wife at the time. In the public eye, his marriage appeared to be going well. In reality, McNair had a bachelor pad apartment in the city and had a steady side-girlfriend he met at Dave & Busters. Sahel Kazami got pulled over in McNair’s car two days before the murder, and her stability was spiraling out of control.

McNair didn’t help the situation when he decided being a four-timer was more fun than two-timing. He had another side piece from Sahel, and she was around for awhile before the July murder. McNair was with a girl who was having money issues, just went to jail, is dating a big name local celebrity who is cheating on her, and other seedy stuff that CBS News has just begun to uncover. The more layers of this story that are peeled away, the more the situation smells—making McNair look worse.

The Titans understandably held a memorial for McNair a few days after the death, before a lot of the details were released, in addition to the number on their helmets.

I hope the Titans fans see the problem with that. The Titans have a constant reminder of the star of the franchise falling apart and having his life ended by his own indulgences. This is a black cloud on the Titans. They are losing games 59-0 because sports karma is fully against a team where Steve McNair represents the franchise.

The Titans will win a few games this year, but in order to get the team back to where they get lucky instances like the Music City Miracle in their favor, they need to do two things. First, remove the No. 9 from the helmet.

Eventually, if they want to retire the number in the stadium, that’s fine. Just don’t put his name on the wall. It does no good to have the name lurking over the franchise, and kids asking what happened to him and having to explain the mess that ended his life.

Second, either bench or cut Lendale White. He’s not doing much this year, and that stupid towel-stomping started the winds of change for the negative. Definitely trade him during the offseason, since the Titans are basically done from playoff hopes this season. These ideas might appear a bit harsh, but trust me, I’m well aware of how negative karma works. I was on the opposite side of the Music City Miracle.

If Titans fans are interested in learning about karma, look to Knoxville and the University of Tennessee and their struggles. The Volunteers, producers of NFL stars including Shaun Ellis, Dwayne Goodrich, Travis Henry, Jamal Lewis, Leonard Little, Onterrio Smith and Donte Stallworth. That list helps explain the Volunteers’ struggles the last decade, and should show that the Titans have bigger issues than if the coach is wearing a Peyton Manning jersey.

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Worst Game Ever: Browns Win 6-3. Every Viewer Loses

To call the Buffalo-Cleveland game the worst game ever makes the crazy assumption that the heap of junk at “Hopefully He Dies Soon Stadium” qualifies as a football game. I would more appropriately call it sports purgatory, because the cities of Buffalo and Cleveland haven’t felt enough pain, and needed three hours of stabbing agony.

The book “The Secret” discusses the law of attraction and how you attract positive and negatives into your life. I think Bills and Browns fans would rather have spent three hours listening to a James Arthur Ray seminar in a Sedona sweatbox than be exposed to the drivel that played in between commercials on CBS Sunday afternoon.

What karma God did Lake Erie anger?

Last year, I wrote about how the Philadelphia-Cincinnati tie was the worst game ever, because somehow both teams tried not to win. This Bills-Browns game trumps it because at least their appeared to be some skill in the tie, unlike this game where it appeared that a UFL team would beat either team by two touchdowns.

For those of you who didn’t see the game, you’re lucky. I can’t unwatch it and I’m ready to pop in the 49ers-Bills mess from last year so I can see a better game. This game needs some dissecting to truly pinpoint the awfulness of a 6-3 craptacular.

No. 1 The Angels outscored both teams on Sunday afternoon.

No. 2 The last home game the Bills played before Sunday was against New Orleans. In that game, punter Brian Moorman completed a pass for 25 yards. Cleveland starting QB Derek Anderson completed two passes in the entire game for 23 yards. Anderson was so bad that on the sidelines Eric Mangini was overheard saying “Derek, you need to throw more accurately, like JaMarcus Russell.”

No. 3 Kavika Mitchell has been one of the few healthy Bills defenders the last two years. This was the first week he played middle linebacker, so of course, he got injured.

The backup middle linebacker for Buffalo is Marcus Buggs, who of course, also got injured. The only healthy middle linebacker they now have is Jon Corto, who is basically on the team because he lives near the stadium and the Bills could save money on moving expenses. 

No. 4 Roscoe Parrish was worse than nobody. Had the Bills tried to block every punt or even just allowed the ball to roll wherever it may go, the Bills would have had a better shot of winning.

Yes, Parrish did have one nice punt return. He also had a -15 yard punt return (that’s a skill) and who knows what he was thinking on his attempt to pick up the ball. Cleveland was handed the game by a guy who is on the team because the Bills have no one else to return kicks and punts, even if anybody or nobody would be better.

No. 5 Cleveland had nine first downs, under 200 yards in total offense, were four for 16 on third down, scored zero touchdowns, and still won.

No. 6 The Bills had nine false start penalties at home. That’s almost impossible. It’s not like the crowd noise was a distraction. It’s nice to see that extra week of training camp paid dividends.

Every penalty the Bills had was because they are a stupid team, and they only had two penalties based on aggressive play, both unnecessary roughness penalties by offensive players.

No. 7 Luckily, the Browns were playing the awful Bills, because after their field goal to take the lead, Billy Cundiff kicked the ball out of bounds to give the Bills field position at the 40 yard line. The Browns tried everything they could do to lose but couldn’t.

No. 8 Dick Jauron is a brilliant thief.

He obviously knows nothing about coaching. Going for it, punting or kicking a field goal is mind blowing to this guy. I understand going for it on 4th and 6 at Cleveland’s 38. I’m really curious to figure out how going for a 4th and 24 is a better percentage play, than a 48 yard field goal in a 3-0 game.

In a tie game, punting on 4th and 1 on their own 43 might have taken some guts, but it was the right play.

Throughout the day, Marshawn Lynch looked like he wished he was in his car and Jauron was a pedestrian. Jauron appears most content when he’s losing because it makes the other team happy.

He’s the John McCain of football.

No. 9 Cleveland now has two quarterbacks the coach doesn’t trust; and Buffalo has amazingly taken a pretty decent quarterback and developed him into a bad one.

On the day, Edwards missed plenty of open receivers, including a deep pass to Lee Evans. A quarterback with a 50 percent accuracy rating will not win games in the NFL, unless the team is playing the Bills. Then, 12 percent will do.

No. 10 The climatic game winning moment was an 18 yard field goal. There is nothing less exciting in football.

Don’t look for this game on NFL Replay, and for those of you with the Red Zone Channel, yes, this game did happen. I’m sure you didn’t see a lot of it. You should take pride in that, something the Browns and the Bills obviously don’t do with their football.

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A New Direction For Buffalo Bills Fans

I previously wrote the 10 worst moments of the decade, and after the Patriots loss I was going to go on and write the 100 worst of the decade. The Pats loss shockingly would not make the top 10 most painful moments, which I hope gives an idea to fans of other teams how bad the decade has been.

The idea was to write all of the bad things as a séance, to get them out in the air and clear the soul, but just writing the list brought back too many bad memories. As Bills fans, we are addicted to the negative, because we expect it as this point like a junkie expects his next fix.

Most Bills fans knew the Bills were going to blow the 24-13 lead and lose. That’s no way to be a fan of a sport that should be an escape. I’m going to go in a different direction for this article and write the positives and try to change my view of Bills games.

 

1. New England had to make an 11 point comeback 

The last time I checked before the game, New England was an 11 point favorite. At home, with Brady returning, the Patriots almost pulled an absolute choke in their season opener. Everyone picked the Patriots to win the division, and after week 1, that prediction looks a bit scary.

Good teams sometimes get lucky, and New England is good, but they aren’t that good. The running game fell apart, Brady threw 53 times, and that new defense appeared very shaky. If Brady has to throw a lot every game, he will eventually get hurt. Jerrod Mayo got injured, and New England has plenty of depth issues on defense, and offense.

Their new acquisitions in Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway looked old, and the Bills gave the footprint on how to stop the Patriots from scoring, before the Bills fell apart. The AFC East is a lot more open than it appeared before the season.

2. The Bills have the running back for the no-huddle

Discussions of the no-huddle made people laugh because when the Bills did it in the 90’s, they had the weapons. This Bills team looks to have very good receivers but questions everywhere else.

After last night, Fred Jackson looks perfect for the no-huddle. He catches the ball very well out of the backfield and he hits holes and always moves forward, and can run the ball out of the shotgun.

He has a style similar to Thurman Thomas, which is what is absolutely needed for this offense to succeed. Lynch can be a change-up, but Jackson fits perfectly as the feature back.

3. The Bills secondary looked pretty good

Yes Brady completed 39 passes and Moss and Welker both had 12 catches, but for the most part the secondary did exactly what they wanted to do. The secondary allowed few big plays, executed very good tackling, and provided great run support.

McKelvin had a terrible game and had a big missed tackle on Kevin Faulk on New England’s first TD drive. The two late touchdowns are because Keith Ellison still struggles in coverage.

With a pass happy team like the Pats, the Bills corners and safeties kept the action in front of them. If the front 7 does a bit more in future games, the defense can definitely compete against a good amount of NFL offenses.

4. No more Monday night games this year

Only one Thursday night game on the NFL Network, and no more ESPN games. The pain of a close Monday Night Football game will not happen for the rest of this season. Get the pain out of the way.

 

5. They are not the worst team in football

Going into week 1, the fear existed that the Bills may be one of the worst teams in the NFL. They didn’t look like it against the Pats. The Bengals, Browns, Broncos, Texans, Lions, Cardinals, Rams, Bucs and Panthers all looked worse in week 1.

With all of the turmoil of the last 2 weeks with cuts and Schonert’s firing, that’s a pretty positive note for this point in the season.

 

6. Edwards looked comfortable 

The Patriots have defensive flaws, but still have always given the Bills fits. Edwards looked very composed in an offense that has been in flux and was terrible in the preseason.

He made the plays necessary to win the game, the Bills special teams and defense let him down. He also was playing better as the game went along. The Bills need very quarterback play to compete, and at least he looks like he can achieve that level.

 

7. The schedule is pretty nice 

Division games at Miami and New York will be tough, but at least the Bills showed they can compete with the big dog in the division. New Orleans looks to be an offensive powerhouse but their defense is still questionable.

The rest of the first half of the schedule is Tampa, Cleveland, Houston and at Carolina. I know the Bills find ways to lose games they should win, but some of these teams are also very talented at losing. There are some wins in this mix.

 

8. Seven more games with the old jerseys 

I don’t think many Bills fans would mind if the throwback AFL jerseys became permanent. We get half of the season with them this year, which should make any Bills fan clamoring for the destruction of the CFL style junk thrilled.

 

9. Blackouts 

One of the biggest fears of Bills fans is that the team is eventually going to move to Toronto, or somewhere else. With the problems around the NFL in terms of selling out games, the Bills aren’t No. 1 on the list to move anymore.

Jacksonville is in deep trouble, San Diego isn’t far behind, and the viability of St Louis and other franchises which will probably have 4, 5 or 6 blackouts make Buffalo and their sold out stadium an asset.

No matter what Jerry Jones may think the league to be successful needs as many fiscally successful teams as possible. Once Ralph Wilson dies, someone will buy the team, look for a new market and a handout for a publicly financed stadium, and will get few if any offers. Blackouts are the Bills best friend.

 

10. Weird History 

The Patriots game felt like Friday the 13th Part VI. A horror movie where the ending is basically known. An interesting tidbit though about the Bills under Jauron. Not always, but a lot of times after painful losses, they win the next week.

The Cleveland MNF loss and the JP Losman fumble game last year, the Dallas MNF two years ago, and the road losses to Miami and Indy in 2006, all led to wins the next win.

With Tampa coming into town this week, they look beatable. 1-1 wouldn’t be so bad and would be tied for second in the division. It’s going to take awhile to bred positivity as a Bills fan. I’m taking baby steps now.

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Top 10 Reasons the Philadelphia Eagles Will Not Make the Playoffs

 

In my last article, I analyzed 31 NFL experts and their playoff predictions. Twenty-eight of the 31 experts predict the Philadelphia Eagles to make the playoffs. Ninety percent of the sample of experts thinks that the Eagles will build off their NFC Championship run and additions during the offseason to make another playoff run.

I must be missing something, because I see a very difficult road for the Eagles to make the playoffs.

Before I get into my reasoning for them not making it, I will look at some positives. The Eagles have the positive fact going for them that since the NFL went to 32 teams; half of the NFC Wild Card teams have come from the East. The Eagles home schedule is very manageable, with them facing the Chiefs, Saints, Bucs, 49ers, and the Broncos.

They definitely have the potential to go 6-2 at home (assuming they go 2-1 at home in division and 4-1 out of division) and have three games in a row at home including a bye. The Eagles have added some dynamic players on offense. I see 10 reasons that trump the positives above on why the Eagles will not return to the playoffs.

10. Road Schedule – I know it is tough to predict how teams will be from year to year, but the road games they face look to be really challenging. Luckily they get the Cowboys on the road in January, when Dallas usually has fallen apart for the year. The rest of the road games are all tricky.

They play in Carolina, Oakland (long trips are always risky), San Diego, Chicago and Atlanta. Three stretches of two road games in a row, no bye breaking up any of the road games. Combined, the Eagles have an eight game stretch of games at Washington, vs New York, vs Dallas, at San Diego, at Chicago, vs Washington at Atlanta and at New York.

That is a brutal physical stretch with five division games, one west coast trip and a trip to Atlanta which I’m sure will be fun for reasons listed later.

 

9. Sports Karma – Sports Karma is a bitch, and so far the Eagles have not received the wrath of negative karma since their horrible crime (well maybe they have, but I’m not going there). In fact they had some really positive karma working for them. The Eagles finished 9-6-1 last year, and needed a series of strange events to even make the playoffs.

The Cowboys had to choke against the Ravens. The Bucs had to blow a lead against the Chargers and then screw up a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Raiders at home, and Chicago lost to Houston in the last week of the season.

Then the Eagles got incredibly shaky Minnesota, and faced a talented yet distracted Giants team. The Eagles made a great run, and had a lot working for them in terms of karma.

The one has to come back and haunt them. There is no way the Eagles escape free and clear from the worst game in NFL history last year. That Cincinnati tie was horrendous on so many levels, and to think that the same Eagles team made the NFC Championship only makes the likelihood of a crash much more likely.

The Bengals suffered the wrath by being the Bengals; they’ve done their time for 20 years. The Eagles will not catch the same positive breaks they caught last year.

8. History – Since 2002, only one out of six NFC No. 6 seeds have returned to the playoffs the next year. In the last four years, only 28 percent of teams that missed the playoffs the previous year and then make the playoffs the next year return in year three.

The last four NFC Champion runner-ups have failed to make the playoffs the following year. The turnover rate of playoff teams in the last 10 years has been 53 percent. The last six years the turnover rate of playoff teams in the NFC has been 61 percent.

7. Michael Vick – He’s a backup who will be put into certain formations. His impact will range from little to a few bursts here or there. He might still make an impact running the ball but a big question has to be asked about his speed given his time away from football.

In 2006, he did throw 20 TD’s, but also only completed 53 percent of his passes, and also gave the finger to the Atlanta fans after a game. Bet that won’t go over well in Philly.

Game eight of Philly’s really difficult stretch is at Atlanta, and if any group of fans will backlash over Vick’s return to the NFL, it’s the Falcons fans. At that crucial point in the season, Vick becomes a distraction.

How much Vick plays at quarterback depends a lot on No. 6.

6. Jason Peters – Good luck with all that. Peters came out of college as an undrafted tight end, and with the Bills he showed a lot of athleticism. I’m not sure any other left tackle has a punt block and fumble recovery touchdown on his resume.

He developed into a successful left tackle, and during the 2006 season he played really well. He wasn’t as good in 2007, but he was solid and made the Pro Bowl.

Then the fun began, as Peters held out for a new contract before the 2008 season, and the Bills wouldn’t give in. He finally showed up in time to play for week two, and he came in out of shape. He never really got in shape either, and he was terrible last year.

He tied for the most sacks allowed by a left tackle with 11.5, the Bills offensive line played better the games he wasn’t in there, and yet he still made the Pro Bowl. Please take a moment to remember the JP Losman fumble against the Jets and the left tackle who failed to even lay a hand on the corner that sacked Losman.

That’s pro bowl stuff. He never got in shape last year and has had multiple injuries the last few years and it becomes difficult to believe he will ever get back to his 2006 condition. Why should he? He got his payday from the Eagles by playing mediocre football last year.

I have to wonder if McNabb can take 11 blindside sacks and numerous hits and pressures without an injury.

 

5. Injuries – The season hasn’t even started and the Eagles already have wrath of injuries. Their offense line has been decimated this preseason. Shawn Andrews is hurt, Todd Herramens is injured, Stacey Andrews is as healthy as a 300+ pounder with knee surgery can be, and Peters has been hurt already. Middle linebacker Stewart Bradley was lost for the season.

Going into the game versus Carolina, the Eagles have 14 players on the injured list. The Panthers have two. A team that is lacking health in September rarely gets healthy in December, especially with an eight-game stretch like the Eagles have this year. Especially since the offense line is really stricken and they have to protect their two stars.

4. McNabb and Westbrook – Football players are not like wine. They rarely get better with age. The Eagles are a mostly young team, except that McNabb and Westbrook have the most mileage on them. Contrary to common belief, Westbrook has played most of the games the last few years, just missing four games in the last three years.

Westbrook was banged up a lot last year, and his productivity was hurt, and he’s already hurting before week one. The Eagles were at least smart to draft a backup. McNabb played very well last year, but of course has had many injuries and is a year older and has to deal with Jason Peters allowing free blitzes on way too many occasions.

McNabb will be 33 by the end of the season, which isn’t old, and can definitely succeed if he can stand up for all 16 games, but that offensive line has to scare him.

3. Jim Johnson – It was a terrible situation in the offseason for the Eagles. Johnson’s cancer came back, and he put up a strong fight, even coming back to practices to give his best effort to coach during minicamp. He had to leave the team as the cancer got worse and ultimately took his life at the age of 68.

What effect that Johnson being gone on the players is unknown, but for sure he is gone, and this is a big hole in the Eagles organization. He was the mind behind an always aggressive defense and will be very difficult to replace.

2. Brian Dawkins – Jim Johnson was the mind of the Eagles defense, Brian Dawkins was the heart. At 35, and with a big contract offer on the table from the Broncos, letting him go might have made sense in terms of long-term dealings.

However, with McNabb at the helm, the Eagles need to be more short term, and Dawkins was the leader of that defense.

He was the energy, he was the energy that brought the crazy Eagles fans off their feet. Victor Harris may be quicker than Dawkins, but Dawkins was Philadelphia, and that’s something Harris needs about six years to do.

1. The experts – When five of the 16 ESPN experts have the Eagles going to the Super Bowl, and countless other experts across the country have the same, one has to wonder what the track records of the experts is, and last year the hot team was the Cowboys. They didn’t make the playoffs.

In the NFC especially, the further off the radar a team is, the better shot they have to make the Super Bowl. The Cardinals, Giants, Bears, Panthers, Seahawks are perfect examples of that this decade.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

NFL Preview: Experts’ Predictions Analysis

This is the fun part of football, where everyone pretends to be an expert by making playoff predictions for the 09-10 NFL season. I warn you, as the common internet reader, that this predicting gig should only be left to experts. The media members who get paid to follow the NFL have more knowledge, background, and understanding of what has happened and what is going to happen this season. Well, at least they think they do.

Below is the amount of new playoff teams that have made the playoffs each year since the playoffs expanded to 12 teams in 1990-1991.

5-6-5-5-4-5-5-5-7-6-6-5-8-5-7-7-6-7

In 16 of the 18 years, 5, 6 or 7 new teams have made the playoffs. When making predictions for the upcoming season, no matter which teams are predicted, the experts should pick at least 5 new playoff teams. This is pretty common knowledge that the NFL is constantly changing and new teams come out of nowhere. It’s common knowledge to us, obviously not to the NFL experts. I reviewed 31 predictions from NFL experts (in honor of the amount of blackouts Jacksonville, Oakland, Detroit and St. Louis will have combined) and below are the results.

The Smart Ones:

7 New Playoff Teams – 1 out of 31 – Don Banks of CNNSI – He used intelligent analysis to guess that the NFC will have a lot of turnover and since 3 of the last 4 years 7 new teams have made the playoffs, 7 is a pretty smart guess.

6 New Playoff Teams – 3 out of 31 – Hub Arkush of Pro Football Weekly, Adam Schefter of ESPN and Seth Wickersham of ESPN – These 3 analysts reviewed schedules and made some bold predictions, yet they are definitely possible. All possibilities except Hub’s pick of the Bills to make the playoffs. I’ll get to the team analysis in a bit.

5 New Playoff Teams – 2 out of 31 – Peter King of CNNSI and Gene Wojciehowksi of ESPN – Two respected football journalists who mostly picked different teams yet came to the same conclusion, just because a team was good in 08 doesn’t mean they will be in 09.

 

The Passive Predictors:

4 New Playoff Teams – 6 out of 31 – Matt Williamson, Kevin Seifert, Len Pasquarelli, John Banks and Paul Kuharsky of ESPN and Peter Schrager of Fox Sports – I definitely will not question the football knowledge of these 6 people, since I know why they made their predictions. They are the writers who don’t want to receive a lot of mail mocking them for picking the Raiders or some out there team to make the playoffs. Most of their picks are really safe, except John Banks did pick the Texans to win the division.

I have to take a moment out to point out Peter Schrager, a very knowledgeable writer who lives on the edge. His sleeper team was the Bears, go crazy man. From that wild prediction article I pull this quote “Since 1996, 78 teams have made the playoffs after not qualifying the previous season — exactly 50% of the 156 playoff teams over that span. 2008 also marked the 13th consecutive season with at least five new playoff teams in the field of 12.” With that knowledge he picked 4 new teams. Fox Sports must initiate some sadistic torture ritual if a writer guesses too many wrong teams in his predictions.

The Football Experts in Name Only:

3 New Playoff Teams – 11 out of 31 – Kent Somers, Paola Boivon and Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic, Chris Schultz of TSN, Tony Moss of Sports Network, Paul Woody of the Richmond Times Dispatch, WVBR.com, Mike Williamson, Mike Sando, Pat Yasinskas and Gregg Easterbrook of ESPN – Since the NFL has expanded to 12 teams, there has never been a season where 3 or less new playoff teams make the playoffs, yet 61% of the NFL Experts I reviewed think this is the year it will happen. Given the fact that all of them had 1 of the 3 new teams as New England, and you can see where the level of stupidity builds. All of them have the Eagles making it because they got Michael Vick and they are trendy and because these experts don’t pay attention to football.

I’m sure Gregg Easterbrook is a lightning rod for fans, since he does have a lot of strong opinions about football. His punting and passive play analysis is some of the best information I’ve seen a writer discuss in years. Yet with all of the information in terms of facts he puts out there, he picks 3 teams. He also writes an annual bad prediction article, and that probably explains his incredible passiveness in his picks. He should have gone for it.

 

The Idiots:

2 New Playoff Teams – 6 out of 31 – The Sporting News Staff, Jeffri Chahida, John Clayton, Tim Graham, Jeremy Green and Matt Mosley of ESPN – Consider once again that all of them picked New England, and all 6 of these predictions involve picking one new team. They somehow believe that out of 7 new playoff teams from last year, 5 of them will make it again. Since 1991, that has also never happened. The last 4 years only 1, 2, 2 and 2 teams have returned for a 2^nd playoff year. Why do the predictions if they put zero thought or effort into them? At least the ESPN guys were terrible individually; the Sporting News staff had to agree on their awful predictions. I think you seriously have to question their football knowledge if they believe that the NFL will be almost exactly the same as last year.

 

The Brain Dead Vegetables:

1 New Playoff Team – 2 out of 31 – Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic and James Walker of ESPN – They both picked New England to make the playoffs. Either a 3 year old or the pet parrot or a house plant must have made these picks. These dummies actually believe that the NFC will have the same 6 teams from last year, which of course is almost impossible. Supreme moron Bob actually has the same NFC division winners and wild cards. The odds of that happening are about 1 in 1700. I take offense to this as a sports fan because these two guys are writing to people as experts, and they might as well be making job forecasts (somehow job forecast results are always unexpected, maybe hire some new prognosticators). I hope everyone reading this would be embarrassed to hand those in as predictions and have the predictions published for the internet world to read.

 

Now onto the team analysis and one thing I’ve learned from studying the media closely the last few years. Groupthink is lethal

.

Consensus – The Steelers, Chargers and Patriots were picked by all 31 experts to make the playoffs – All of them picked San Diego and New England to win the division. I can see that because of the competition, but not one person took a chance with a different team. New England should win the East, but they are one Brady injury away from a lot of trouble and Miami should still be competitive. The Chargers were 5-8 at one point last year. Are they really worthy of consensus, with Norv Turner as the coach, even if any of the other 3 teams winning would be stretch? The consensus teams of last year were the Cowboys and the Patriots, and we saw how well that worked out for them.

 

Almost Consensus – The Giants and Eagles were picked by 28 experts and the Colts by 27 experts – The Giants play in a tough division and have a lot of offensive questions. The Eagles are going to take a separate article to show why they won’t make the playoffs. The Colts have two major things going against them. Since 1983, only 1 team has made the playoffs 8 years in a row and that was the 49ers from 83-90. Also, 8 times in the last 9 years, the #5 seed in the AFC have not made the playoffs. With a new coach and a questionable defense, the Colts look far from a sure thing.

 

Popular Picks – The Falcons, Ravens and Titans were picked by 25 experts – The Ravens and Falcons both came up from bad records the previous year with rookie quarterbacks to make the playoffs. In the last 6 years, 15 teams rose up from 6 wins or less to make the playoffs. Only 3 of them returned to the playoffs the next year. Out of the Dolphins, Falcons and Ravens, at least two of them are not going back.

 

The rest of the totals are below, and as you can see a lot of teams are already written off. I guarantee at least 1 of those teams with 0 or 1 or 2 people picking them makes the playoffs. How the experts picked the rest of the lot:

 

18 experts – Packers

17 experts – Cardinals

12 experts – Seahawks

11 experts – Saints

8 experts – Cowboys and Bears

6 experts – Panthers and Texans

3 experts – 49ers

2 experts – Jaguars, Bengals, Dolphins and Bills (good luck with that)

1 expert – Jets and Redskins

Nobody – Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos, Browns, Lions, Rams and Bucs

 

AFC Fans. Don’t bother watching the regular season since the playoff teams have already been decided by the experts. The Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Titans and Ravens are making the playoffs. They are picking a 6 team exacta, and football gamblers know how often those pay off. Thanks football geniuses.

 

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

10 Reasons the Cleveland Browns Will Make the Playoffs

In preparation for this article, I sought feedback from the Cleveland Browns fans to get their opinion of why my pick of the Cleveland Browns in the playoff prediction article made sense. Most of the people instead decided to trash the fact that I made a mistake and wrote AFC Central for the division instead of AFC North.

I can see why the Browns fans would have such angst with my lack of knowledge, because the Browns have won numerous AFC North titles. Oh yeah, they never have. Their last division title was 20 years ago, in the AFC Central.

Since the Browns fans were little help, I have had to go this crazy journey alone and justify why I think the Browns will make the playoffs.

The Browns went 4-12 last season, have a new head coach, traded maybe their best offensive player in Kellen Winslow, had another player suspended for the entire season, and had a very suspect defense last year along with an offense that struggled to do anything.

The Browns also appear to be unsure at to who will lead the team at quarterback. Vegas started the Browns at over/under seven victories and they have been bet down, and most experts will have the Browns no higher than third in the division.

I feel crazy even trying to rationalize a winning season, much less a playoff appearance, but I think I can do it by breaking down 10 points that make the Browns a potential breakout team in 2009.

 

10. New Coach – Eric Mangini isn’t currently viewed as a top tiered coach, but he definitely appears to be an upgrade over Romeo Crennel. The Jets let Mangini go, and really their problems were partially Mangini’s fault, but also the Brett Favre circus derailed any hopes of a playoff appearance last year. Romeo Crennel was a statue on the sidelines, and Mangini will definitely change the energy level on the team.

Last year, all three teams with new head coaches made the playoffs, and, of course, this season that won’t happen since so many teams changed coaches. A few probably will though, and of the teams with six or less wins, Detroit and St. Louis have to see benefits since they were both so bad, and Kansas City and Cleveland should see upgrades because their previous coaches were so mediocre.

 

9. Clean Slate – Luckily the 2008 season is in the past, and the Browns have nothing to build off of. Most people are predicting bad things for the Browns this year because they were so bad last year. Consider that they scored 29 points against the Bills, and then 31 points in their final six games. The offense is most likely not going to be as bad this year. They have a new head coach and new GM.

They also don’t have to start the season the way they did last year. They were basically penciled in for 0-3, with home games against Dallas and Pittsburgh and a road game versus Baltimore. They aren’t likely to go 1-7 at home this year. The Browns start the season 0-0, and 2008 means nothing, and the Browns took the correct steps in the changes they made to emphasize that point.

 

8. Getting rid of malcontents – A lot of the criticism of the Browns is about their terrible offense and that they traded away their best offensive player, Kellen Winslow. How can they possibly get better? Simple, the Browns offense was terrible with him. They can’t get worse. However they can get better since he was a major distraction on the team.

There is a lot to say about that strategy, especially in football, for getting rid of a cancer on the team.

The Dolphins perceived Jason Taylor would be one last year, they sent him to Washington, and the vibe of the Dolphins improved. Donte Stallworth got rid of himself, but guaranteeing that he will not be on the team this year helps to remove distractions.

No Kellen Winslow and no Donte Stallworth may take away weapons from Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson, but they weren’t good with them and both guys being absent will help team chemistry.

Yes, I realize the Browns still have Braylon Edwards, and have to hope he will lead a group of young receivers instead of being a distraction. One is better than three.

 

7. The Browns aren’t the Bengals – Seeing the list of the six or less win teams, the two that stood out to me were the Browns and Bengals. Kansas City and Oakland are very tempting as sleepers because the AFC West should once again be a weak division, but both teams face really challenging schedules otherwise.

Kansas City faces the entire NFC East and San Diego in the first seven weeks and Oakland have no easy road games out of division. The Browns and the Bengals therefore stand out from the list in point 10, and Cleveland has definite advantages over Cincinnati.

The Bengals defense was improving last year, and Carson Palmer is set to play this year, and may tease people into believing they will be a sleeper.

Remember, they are the Bengals. They still have their malcontents, Marvin Lewis is still the head coach, and Mike Brown is still the general manager. The Bengals just signed their first round pick, and have to rely on Chris Henry to be a star receiver this year.

Yeah, the Bengals may get to seven or eight wins because of a similar schedule to the Browns, but Marvin Lewis is really a strong coach at turning victory into loss.

The Browns should finish ahead of the Bengals in the AFC Central (Oh my god, the idiot wrote AFC Central again. He knows nothing about football. So what if he’s actually predicting great things for my team, I have to mock this loser for being so dumb.) 

6. Low expectations – Is anyone besides me predicting the Browns to make the playoffs? I’m having a really difficult time finding 10 reasons to say they will make it. The fans just want anything better than the drivel they saw to end last season, and the Browns are on nobody’s radar and the only reason people have any interest in week one is because Brett Favre and Minnesota are playing in Cleveland.

The Browns have a great opportunity during this preseason to develop that sense of us versus the world and underdog mentality that so many athletes tend to feed off of.

 

5. Added depth – The Browns offseason looked odd at times, because they appeared to give up opportunities to gain talent and instead traded down during the draft and traded away Kellen Winslow. What the Browns did is add a lot of protection against injuries, a very important factor for any team during a long season.

They signed two free agents on the offensive line and acquired Hank Fraley and drafted Alex Mack in hopes of building a group to protect Quinn or Anderson. They drafted two receivers and signed two guys who are very solid as possession receivers.

The trade with the Jets provided a lot of bodies on defense, and players who are very familiar with the style of play Eric Mangini encourages. With so many teams relying on bad backup QB’s, at least Quinn or Anderson can step in and look good if given the opportunity. The Browns have some trouble spots, but are deeper than last year in many areas.

Running back is the one position they appear to really lack depth, yet it’s also the one position where random people come out of nowhere, so a James Davis or Jerome Harrison may be a lot better than anyone knows.

4. Quarterback Play – This is just a hunch, but I think Brady Quinn starts for the Browns, and I think he will have a pretty solid season. The offensive line should perform very well, and Jamal Lewis and whatever changeup back will provide some help, but the success of the team will depend on how the QB does. Brady Quinn doesn’t have to be great; he just has to be smart.

This will be the third year for Quinn, and it should be the first year where he truly understands the pace of the NFL. Braylan Edwards can’t possibly have as bad of a season as last year and should provide a big name target to Quinn while the other receivers take the pressure off Edwards to catch tons of balls.

I know that I’m stretching a bit and this is irrelevant if Anderson wins the starting job, but Quinn just seems ready to take a jump.

 

3. The New Quarterback Circus to Start the Season – Last year, the Browns had a QB controversy and had to start with two games at home and it was a mess. This year, the crazy QB situations are on the other side the first two weeks.

The Brett Favre fiasco comes to Cleveland in week one, and if ever there is an opportunity to steal the spotlight, they have it.

A three interception game for the Cleveland defense is the perfect remedy to build confidence for the season. Week Two the Browns go to Denver. The Broncos fans must cringe at their team currently.

The Browns will be playing at the debut of Josh McDaniels and Kyle Orton in Denver, and if the Broncos don’t play well in Cincinnati, the Denver fans will turn bad quickly. The Browns will have the perfect opportunity to start the season against opponents with plenty of flaws and QB’s who make plenty of mistakes.

 

2. History – Someone has to be the surprise team. In seven of the last 10 seasons, there have been at least three teams that have had six or fewer wins in the previous season and then made the playoffs the next year. Last year, Miami, Baltimore and Atlanta all fit that category.

One factor against the three teams from last year, those six wins or less teams are then 8-17 in making the playoffs the next year, meaning probably two of the Miami, Baltimore and Atlanta group will not return to the playoffs this year. Only nine teams last year had 6 wins or less in the NFL.

Seattle, Jacksonville and Green Bay are recent playoff teams looking to rebound and look to be the most likely candidates, but there is a stat that provides opportunity for the other teams. In eight of the last 10 years, at least one of the six wins or less teams had not made the playoffs in any of the previous three seasons.

Miami and Atlanta were in this category last year, providing hope to what seem to be the six cellar dwellers in the NFL. Detroit and St. Louis have long roads to respectability. The only teams left are Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland. One of these four teams has a good shot to make the playoffs, as hard as that may be to believe.

 

1. The Schedule – I’m realistic, I had to pull a lot of the 10 reasons out of my behind, and throw out a hypothetical. The Browns schedule is the best reason why they have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. Yes, four games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh will be challenging, but the rest of the schedule is a blessing for a rebuilding team.

Although four of the first six games are on the road, they get their Baltimore and Pittsburgh road games out of the way early, and Denver and Buffalo on the road aren’t that difficult (A 4-12 Browns team won in Buffalo last year).

After that six-game stretch, their most difficult games are all at home. For a team that went 1-7 at home last year that’s not a really good thing, but they will definitely be better at home this year. The Browns’ final four road games are at Chicago, Detroit, Cincinnati and Kansas City. Four of their last five games are at home.

The Browns can start the season 2-4 and still have a pretty interesting road to the playoffs. If they can get to 8-6, they get Oakland and Jacksonville the last second weeks.

The Baltimore and Pittsburgh games are both at night, and last year showed that the Browns at night morph into a completely different team. Baltimore is after a bye week. The Browns can definitely get on a roll in the second half of the season because of the schedule.

 

Will Cleveland make the playoffs? I’m not sure, but with so many AFC teams in a state of mediocrity (Denver, Kansas City, Oakland, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Buffalo and maybe the Jets), six teams will make it from the AFC, and even if the Browns can’t win the North, they should be improved and if they get a break.

NFL Playoff Prediction Guide

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I wrote this before I realized that a Fox Sports columnist wrote a similar article, and in his article he went through all of the teams to find a sleeper and came up with the Bears.

Really? A 9-7 team from last year that traded for a big name quarterback seems to me to be a team that plenty of people expect to make the playoffs.

Peter Schrager even understands the rules of picking playoffs teams and will probably be one of the few columnists to pick five or six new playoff teams, yet his sleeper should be the favorite to win the division.

A sleeper is an Atlanta or Miami from last year, a nobody.

This is the famed annual predictions column, where I strive for perfection, 12 for 12. This goal is almost impossible with the NFL because of the playoff turnover that takes place every year.

Since the NFL went to 12 teams in the playoffs in 1990, this has been the number of new teams in the playoffs every year.

 

5-6-5-5-4-5-5-5-7-6-6-5-8-5-7-7-6-7

 

Only once in 18 years have eight of the previous year’s playoff teams made it the next year. In the last 10 years, the average is over six new teams. This knowledge is helpful in predicting teams and very easy for football experts to understand.

There will be a follow-up column where I analyze the picks of the football experts. This article is my best attempt at predicting the playoff teams and give you a good guide to help with your predictions.

 

Playoff Teams Last Year

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, NY Giants, Carolina, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia

 

Teams that Will Struggle to Make the Playoffs Again

Arizona: The only Super Bowl loser to make the playoffs the next year in the last nine years were the Seahawks, and that was probably more of the sports Gods proclaiming that they got a raw deal.

Carolina: Since 2002, the NFC South Winner has not made the playoffs the next season.

Minnesota:  If Brett Favre is the answer, what is possibly the question?

Philadelphia: Michael Vick is a side note for this team, but remember that the Eagles needed a Cowboys no-show vs. the Ravens and a Bucs choke job to even make the playoffs. The Eagles are already having a lot of injuries, and McNabb has Jason Peters watching his blind side. Good luck to you, Donovan.

Miami: They came so far out of nowhere last year, and benefited from a really easy schedule. They won’t be bad but they will have a fall back to around .500 this year.

In your predictions, make sure that you exclude at least four of those teams (one may surprise).

I think Pittsburgh and San Diego are pretty solid to make the playoffs again this year. Pittsburgh’s schedule looks to be very easy this year, and San Diego is still better than any team in the division and will not have the Gary Player travel schedule nightmare this year. That means I need to find one or two more teams from the remaining five from last year.

 

Playoff Teams from Last Year That Could Go Either Way

Tennessee: The Titans had a fantastic regular season last year. Can Kerry Collins lead the team to the playoffs again? With a really good coach and a strong defense, they would have to miss with a 10-6 record.

New York Giants: I think the Plaxico Burress fiasco derailed their season last year, and they still finished as the No. 1 seed. The Giants still look to have enough talent to have a winning record.

Atlanta: At first glance, I thought they would absolutely not make the playoffs, then I tried to find better teams and struggled. Matt Ryan was great last year and now has Tony Gonzales. Plus they didn’t win the division, so the NFC South curse doesn’t affect them.

Baltimore: The Ravens schedule is a bit more difficult than Pittsburgh’s, and like Atlanta they also could suffer from their QB’s sophomore jinx. Baltimore was also the No. 6 seed last year.

Indianapolis: The Colts have a new coach, but still have Peyton Manning. The Colts almost derailed last year but got a few breaks against the Texans and Vikings.

Plus consider this fact; since the NFL went to 12 teams in the playoffs, no team has made the playoffs eight years in a row.

Twenty teams did not make the playoffs last year, and I have broken those teams into a few categories to help pick the 6 new teams.

 

Teams That Have Little or No Shot to Make the Playoffs

Detroit: I know Miami went from 1 win to 11. Detroit could increase their win total by 10 and still not make the playoffs.

Cincinnati: The last time I checked, Marvin Lewis is still the coach and Mike Brown is still the GM.

Jacksonville: I just read that they expect zero sellouts this year. Jaguar fever, catch it. Just move already.

St. Louis: Mark Bulger is still the starting QB. They have a lot of problems.

Buffalo: As much as I am a Bills fan, I am realistic in understanding that if they can’t have a winning record after starting 5-1, they aren’t making the playoffs when they’ll probably start the season 0-1.

Tampa Bay: They only have seven home games, and look to be pretty bad.

Denver: I don’t think Kyle Orton will be as bad as everyone believes, but this is a team that is a mess with a disgruntled star and had a below-average defense last year. The Denver schedule also looks like a beast during the middle of it.

That leaves 13 teams for six potential spots. This step in predicting the teams is the toughest, since the NFL is so full of parity and so many teams can have one bad thing happen that will derail a season. See the Cowboys or Patriots from last year. I can just provide my hunch.

 

Non-Playoffs Teams With A Shot to Make the Playoffs

New England: If Tom Brady is healthy, the Pats are a shoo-in to win the AFC East. If he gets injured, Andrew Walter is in control, and all bets are off.

New York Jets: They probably below in the no-shot category, but I don’t know the effect Favre had last year, and Sanchez may bring life to a team that showed glimpses of being very good. Plus someone has to compete with the Pats for the division.

Kansas City: They may also belong in the no shot category, but the Herm Edwards factor can’t be discounted. The Chiefs were close in a good number of games last year, but Edwards was so bad that he actually created losses out of wins.

Oakland: I don’t know how Oakland would make the playoffs, but they definitely improved later in the season and some AFC team has to be a complete surprise.

Cleveland: The Browns are on this list for schedule mostly. They definitely should be at nine wins, just because of who they play and the new energy from Eric Mangini.

Houston: Their toughest road game outside of the division is either at Miami or at Arizona. The hurricane last year really threw the Texans off, and the awful meltdown against the Colts ruined their season.

New Orleans: They actually get to play home games in the second half of this year. They also finished last in the NFC South last year, which usually guarantees a playoff berth.

Dallas: The Cowboys imploded last year, and in theory should be better this year. The main question is if Roy Williams can become the No. 1 receiver the Cowboys traded for.

Chicago: The Bears upgraded at quarterback for fantasy purposes, and Cutler has already shown the immaturity that made him the 8-8 star he was in Denver. I just don’t see the Bears defense getting any younger or better.

Green Bay: No Brett Favre and they are now completely Aaron Rodgers team. If they can get any semblance of a defense, they’ll make the playoffs.

Seattle: I’m not sure how much Matt Hasselbeck has left in the tank, but I think Seattle feels pretty comfortable with Seneca Wallace, and luckily the NFC West will probably take nine wins to take the title.

San Francisco: They are the biggest unknown of any team in the league. If Michael Crabtree doesn’t sign, do they have enough talent to win?

Washington – The Redskins are most likely the team where a few small breaks will differentiate between 7-9 and 10-6. If an 8-8 team makes the playoffs in the NFC this year, it will probably be them.

Now you can see how difficult it is to go 12 for 12. I will give my best attempt and hope I get 9.

In the AFC, I predict New England wins the East, Pittsburgh wins the Central, Houston wins the South, and San Diego wins the West. My wild card teams are Tennessee and Cleveland (a crazy sleeper indeed, I debated between them and Baltimore).

In the NFC, I predict Dallas wins the East, Green Bay wins the Central, Atlanta wins the South, and Seattle wins the West. My wild card teams are New Orleans and the New York Giants.

I’m sure that some of the people reading this will get more correct, but at least this can serve as some knowledge. After reading this you should be smarter than paid NFL experts.

Before the season starts, I will analyze the experts’ picks and have fun in showing that you, the reader, know more than they do.

Who Would You Trade Brett Favre For?

Brett Favre is back in the NFL and all is right with the world.

Favre, who will be 40 in October, has been signed by the Minnesota Vikings and will be the starting quarterback this year.

The Vikings felt they needed to upgrade the quarterback position after Tarvaris Jackson had some shaky games during the regular season and melted down in the playoffs last year.

The Vikings signed Sage Rosenfels expecting him to be an upgrade, except that all along they have had an infatuation with bringing Favre out of “retirement”, as he is expected to be the leader to get them over the hump, like he did with the Jets.

Oh wait, the Jets and Favre melted down at the end of last year and missed the playoffs. The fascination with Brett Favre is the name, not necessarily the performer, as the Vikings are willing to overlook his choking against the Giants in the playoffs two years ago or terrible play during many games late last season.

The Vikings see a superstar, though, I’m not so sure about his superstar status currently.

I’ve decided to run a test, comparing every starting quarterback in the NFL versus Favre. Straight up, would each team trade their QB for Favre today. I have to do it straight up since every team might mix in a trade if Adrian Peterson was involved. Age only plays a small role in this analysis, as I’m looking more at recent performance to determine if these teams would prefer Favre or their current QB.

I’m also taking personal issues out of play, since there is no way Green Bay or Cleveland or the Jets would trade for him. I want to find out where Favre currently stands in terms of NFL QB’s.

1. Players who would definitely not be traded for Favre: Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Phllip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, and Peyton Manning. There is not much analysis needed, all of these QB’s are definitely better, even if a guy like Romo is sometimes shaky and not proven in the playoffs.

2. Players who would most likely not be traded for Favre: Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, and Aaron Rodgers. This is the next tier of QB’s, who have minor things against them either because of age, injuries, or inexperience, but are definitely better than Favre.

3. Players who would probably not be traded for Favre: Chad Pennington, Trent Edwards, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, Kerry Collins, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, and Jay Cutler. This next group either has players who are getting old (but have more in the tank than Favre), or experienced players who have went through injuries, or young guys still developing but who have showed signs of improvement. I think all of the QB’s above are preferred to Favre by their GM’s and coaches.

I’ve already named 22 quarterbacks, so only 10 teams may think that Favre is better than their QB (The Vikings of course being one of them).

4. Players who might be interested in trading for Favre: David Garrard, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Kyle Orton, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Marc Bulger, Hill, and Leftwich. Some of these QB’s and teams are on the list because they are unsure who their QB is going to be. Even if Favre is better than all of the guys on this list now, he might not be for long, as QB’s like Stafford and Sanchez and even players like Quinn, Hill, and Russell have the opportunity to develop into better quarterbacks. Whether they do or not is to be seen.

Two years, $25 million dollars, and around the clock media attention for a guy who is probably about the 22nd or 23rd best quarterback in the NFL today.

The Vikings became star struck and in the process completely destroyed the development of Jackson and Rosenfels. Rosenfels would probably be the 27th or 28th best quarterback right now, but given time he might get better.

Favre isn’t wine, he’s not getting better with age.

 

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