NFL Wild-Card Weekend: Packers Vs. Cardinals | Preview & Predictions

 

Wild-card Weekend

Green Bay Packers  vs. Arizona Cardinals  (-1 )            Current Over/Under 47

4:40 PM ET, January 10, 2010: U of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ on FOX

In the third rematch from a week ago, 11-5 Green Bay returns to the desert to take on 10-6 Arizona in a 4:40 P.M. start. The Packers come into this game as the #5 seed, clinching a spot two weeks ago with a win over Seattle, while the Cardinals are the #4 seed after clinching their second straight NFC West title with a win over Detroit in week 15.

In last week’s game both teams realized there was a very good chance that they would be facing each other in the first round, so you had no idea what to expect. Arizona pretty much folded up the tent early as QB Kurt Warner only saw limited action as did many of the other starters.Green Bay on the other hand decided to go full tilt for almost three quarters and the result was a 33-7 throttling of the Cardinals.

It is hard to say which team’s approach will pay off in this game, but one thing is certain; the Packers are playing at a high level and last week’s display at the very least has to put a bit of fear into their opponent’s hearts. Statistically, little can be taken from last week, but Packer QB Aaron Rodger’s performance was nothing short of perfect. He completed 21 of 26 attempts for 235 yards and one TD for a passer rating of 117.1

Green Bay heads into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league. After an embarrassing 38-28 loss to Tampa Bay in week nine, they went on to win seven of their final eight games, with their only loss coming against Pittsburgh on a last second TD. While their offense has averaged almost 31 points a game in this span, their defense has only given up an average of 14. Overall they are ranked sixth in total offense and Second in total defense.

The real heart and soul of this team has been Rodgers. Despite the fact he has been sacked a league high 50 times, he has shown the ability to take a hit in order to make the play. While he has thrown for over 4,400 yards he has also run for over 300, making him a legitimate threat with both his arm and his feet.

Arizona biggest concern heading into the playoffs is trying to figure out which team is going to show up on Sunday. They hope it is the one that completely dominated Minnesota in a 30-17 win back in week 13 and not the team that lost to San Francisco 24-9 the very next week. In last year’s dramatic playoff run that took them all the way to the Super Bowl their defense had as much to do with their success as their offense.If they are to have any chance to repeat this performance they are going to have to play much better than they have so far as they are giving up far too many yards on the ground and through the air.

Offensively they have QB Kurt Warner and WR’s Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin which is still enough to beat almost anyone. Rookie RB Beanie Wells provides some run support, but they are still going to try and beat you throwing the ball.

For Green Bay, it comes down to sticking to their game plan on both sides of the ball. They have an offense that can go point for point with Arizona if they have to and a defense that can easily prevent that from being the case. They need to continue to protect Rodgers as he has only been dropped two times in the last three games. If he has time in the pocket he should be able to pick Arizona’s 23^rd  ranked pass defense apart.

For Arizona, this game rests squarely on the shoulders of Warner. When he is in the zone there are few defenses that can stop him as he has the ability to get rid of the ball quickly and find the open man. Another key will be the health of Boldin, who is suffering from a sprained left ankle. They need him at full speed to keep Fitzgerald from getting double teamed. Defensively they need DT Darnell Dockett and the rest of the defensive line to put some kind of pressure on Rodgers to keep him from getting into any kind of rhythm.

Arizona had a magical run in last year’s playoffs, but that was a much more balanced team than this year’s version. Green Bay is playing as good as anyone and has a defense that matches up very well against the Cardinal’s strengths. I’m taking the Packers and the OVER .

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NFL Wild-Card Weekend: Ravens vs. Patriots

NFL Wild-card Weekend

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-3.5)       Current Over/Under 43

In the early game on Sunday, the 9-7 Baltimore Ravens will travel to Foxboro to play the 10-6 New England Patriots in a 1:00 p.m. start.

It took them to the final week of the regular season, but Baltimore was able to scratch and claw their way into the postseason by winning three out of their last four games to wind up earning the No. 6 seed.

New England had their share of ups and downs this season but they were also able to pull things together down the stretch winning three of four to capture the AFC East and lock up the No. 3 seed. These teams did meet earlier in the year with the Patriots coming away with a 27-21 win at home.

The Ravens head into the postseason after pounding out a 21-13 win over Oakland last week. Despite the fact that the Raiders had only won five games all year, they still gave them all they could handle doing their best to play spoiler two years in a row after knocking Tampa out of the playoffs in 2008.

Baltimore relied on a solid ground game racking up 240 rushing yards with Willis McGahee accounting for 167. Second-year QB Joe Flacco, who has struggled at times this year managed the game well completing 11-of-19 attempts. Overall, like many of the Ravens games the second half of this season it was not necessarily pretty, but effective.

New England came into the final week with the sole intention of staying healthy, as a win or loss had little bearing on their playoff position. Unfortunately that did not prove to be the case as their go-to receiver, as Wes Welker went down with a left knee injury early in the first quarter and is lost for the season. They went on to lose to Houston 34-27, but that pales in comparison to the loss of Welker.

Baltimore has been a hard team to figure out all season long. In their first seven games they scored over 30 points five times. In their last nine games they went over that total only twice; against Detroit and Chicago.

Their defense has remained solid, giving up an average of 16.3 points and 300.5 yards per game which is third best in the league, but Flacco’s overall inconsistency offensively have been part of the Ravens’ problems. He did throw for over 3,600 yards with a passer rating of 88, but it did not always translate to points on the board. The real strength of this offense is their running game led by Ray Rice. Rice ended up with 1339 rushing yards on 254 attempts for an average of 5.3 yards per carry. He also had 78 receptions for 702 yards to go over 2,000 yards from scrimmage for the year.

As Tom Brady goes, so does New England. After missing almost all last season with a knee injury, Brady got off to a slow start, but was still able to lead his team to six wins in their first eight games. After losses to Indianapolis, New Orleans, and Miami people began to question if they would even make the postseason, but in typical Brady fashion he rallied the team to another division title.

Statistically, this team is as good as any other in the playoffs. Their offense is ranked third overall, and their defense, which has bared much of the blame for a subpar season by their standards, is ranked fifth in points allowed.

For Baltimore, they need Rice to come up with his biggest game of the year in order to control the clock and minimize Brady’s time on the field. They are not going to beat the Patriots with Flacco having to throw the ball 30-40 times.

Defensively, they need to take Randy Moss out of the game as he is still a deep threat. Without Welker in the lineup, this could be the perfect time to force Brady to beat you with his arm as he will most likely struggle without his favorite target.

For New England, they need Moss to get open down-field and make a few big plays to put some quick points on the board. They will struggle to run against the Ravens, so Brady will have to be able to spread the ball around to which ever receivers are in the game. Keep an eye on rookie WR Julian Edelman as he could come up big in this one. Defensively, they have to contain Rice and keep him from tearing off any big runs. Their best bet is to try and rattle Flacco from the start to throw him off his game.

You cannot discount the loss of Welker to New England, but you also cannot discount the resolve of this team. They have been there before and know how to win these types of games. Baltimore will be able to keep this one close, but in the end it will not be enough. Take the Patriots and the UNDER.

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AFC Week 17 Match Ups and Predictions

With only one more regular season game to played, the playoff picture in the AFC has yet to be completed. After last week’s games, all the division races have finally been decided.

Indianapolis clinched the South a few weeks back and already had home field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up, so last week’s 29-15 loss to the Jets had no bearing on their position.

San Diego clinched the West in week 15 and with their impressive 42-17 win over Tennessee on Christmas night, they secured a first round bye. After a convincing 35-7 win over Jacksonville, New England has clinched the East and will be the either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed.

Cincinnati got a much needed win by beating the Chiefs 17-10 to finally lock up the North.

After that it is still anybody’s guess as to which teams will gain the two remaining wild card berths.

Baltimore and Denver had a perfect opportunity to improve their chances, but the Ravens fell to Pittsburgh 23-20 after self-destructing on a number of key drives in the fourth quarter, and the Bronco’s lost to Philadelphia 30-27 as their valiant comeback attempt from a 17-point deficit fell just short.

Baltimore and the New York Jets are now the only teams that can assure themselves a spot with a win next week. Every other team in the hunt, which includes Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston at 8-7 and Miami and Jacksonville at 7-8 need to win next week and then survive a multitude of tie-breaking scenarios to gain a berth.

Moving on to the final week of the 2009 regular season the key AFC match-ups of week 17:

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (-1 ) Current Over/Under 44

After digging themselves a hole by losing five straight games, Pittsburgh has won their last two to keep their playoff chances alive.

In those wins they have not looked spectacular, but they have found a way to win which at this point in the season is all you really need.

The two biggest things they have on their side heading into this game are momentum and confidence. They went on a roll last year at this time to win the Super Bowl and there is no reason to believe they cannot do it again.

Miami on the other hand is coming off two straight losses as their playoff chances went from strong to bleak. Against Houston last week they were completely outplayed, falling behind 27-3 in the first half.

Give the Dolphins an A for effort, but they have reached the end of the line for this season.

Pittsburgh’s roll toward the postseason continues as I like the Steelers and the UNDER.

Baltimore Ravens (-10 ) @ Oakland Raiders Current Over/Under 38

Baltimore has become one of the most frustrating teams to watch in the second half of this season as they just cannot seem to stand prosperity.

In Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh they battled back from a 10 point deficit to tie the game at 20, but committed one costly penalty after another to allow the Steelers to steal the win.

While they should be able to come away with a victory over Oakland, remember that four of the five Raider’s wins have come against teams with winning records.

Also remember that they knocked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers out of the playoffs last season, beating them 31-24 in the final game of the season.

If the Ravens can eliminate the mental mistakes that cost them last week’s game, they will get the win.

I’m going with the Ravens and the OVER.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-10 ) Current Over/Under 36.5

New York caught a huge break last week when Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell decided to pull most of his starters with a little over five minutes to play in the third quarter and the Colts nursing a five point lead.

Something tells me if that did not happen, this game would have little meaning as far as the postseason. The Jets did however pull out the win and now can make the playoffs with a win over Cincinnati.

The Bengals have been on an emotional roller coaster ever since the death of their teammate Chris Henry. While mourning their loss, they are celebrating their first NFC North title since 2005.

You have to wonder how much they have left in the tank to put up much of an effort as a win does nothing to improve their playoff spot. New York catches another break as the Bengal starters will most likely take the night off.

The Jets and the UNDER.

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NFC Week 14 Match Ups & Predictions

The Saints survived their closest game yet when Washington all but handed them a 33-30 overtime win in a game they should have lost. Irregardless, the win moves them to 12-0, clinches the NFC South, and pretty much hands them home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Minnesota, the second best team in the Conference, took a step backwards on Sunday when they were pasted by Arizona 30-17. Cardinal’s QB Kurt Warner was back in action and clearly was the better man against another venerable veteran QB, Brett Favre. With this win Arizona now has a three game lead in the NFC West with a chance to lock things up with a win against San Francisco this week.

The 10-2 Vikings lead in the NFC North was cut to two games with Green Bay beating Baltimore 27-14 on Monday night. The Packers moved to 8-4 on the year and firmly in place for at least a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

The NFC East is still very much up for grabs after Philadelphia beat Atlanta 34-7 to go to 8-4 and the New York Giants beat Dallas 31-24, raising their record to 7-5 and dropping the Cowboys back into a tie with Eagles at 8-4.

Moving onto week 14 in the NFC, the key match ups we will be reviewing are; Green Bay @ Chicago, Philadelphia @ N.Y. Giants, and Arizona @ San Francisco.

Green Bay Packers (-3 ) @ Chicago Bears Current Over/Under 41

With their 27-14 win over Baltimore on Monday night, Green Bay has now won four games in a row and will look to make it five against a Bears team that is already making plans for next season.

The main thing in Chicago’s favor in this game is the fact that they are 4-2 at home and that Jay Cutler has played far better in front of the home town crowd than on the road.

The Packers main advantage is the fact that they are ranked seventh in the league in points per game going up against a Bear’s defense that is ranked 21^st in points allowed. Despite being the most sacked QB in the league, Aaron Rodgers has shown incredible ability to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball down field as well as the ability to escape the pressure and create some big plays with his feet. He actually leads all QB’s in rushing with 277 yards.

Green Bay’s offense will be just too much for Chicago’s defense to handle so I’m going with the Packers and the OVER.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-1 ) Current Over/Under 46

In a crucial NFC East match-up an Eagle’s win would maintain at least a share of the division lead while a Giant’s win would put them right back in the division race. Both teams are coming off solid victories last week as Philadelphia slammed Atlanta 34-7 and New York used a couple of long touchdowns to race past Dallas 31-24.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Philly jumped out to an early lead on some big plays and never let up rolling to a 40-7 win. This time I expect them to rely on a solid ground game with RB LeSean McCoy and FB Leonard Weaver to try and attack a Giant’s run defense that has slipped a bit lately.In their last three wins they have gone with a much more balanced attack running the ball almost as much as passing it.

The Giants running game has struggled a bit the last few games so it will be up to QB Eli Manning to use his arm to puts enough points on the board to keep up with Philadelphia’s high scoring offense.

I like the Eagles and the OVER in this one.

Arizona Cardinals (-3 ) @ San Francisco 49ers Current Over/Under 44.5

Arizona is coming off a huge 30-17 win at home over the Vikings that moved their record to 8-4 giving them a three game lead over San Francisco in the NFC West. The 49ers are coming off another tough loss on the road, falling to Seattle 20-17.

The good news is that the ‘Niners are 4-2 at home, but the bad news is that the Cardinals are 5-1 on the road and with a win on Sunday would virtually lock up their second straight division title.

Arizona has way too much fire power on offense for San Francisco to keep up in this game. When QB Kurt Warner is on, there isn’t a defense in the world that will be able to take away all the offensive weapons he has at his disposal especially a 49er’s defense that is ranked 27^th against the pass.

If the Cardinals can get an early lead this one is all but over as San Francisco does not play well from behind and is only averaging 20.4 points per game. I’m going with the Cardinals and the UNDER.

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AFC Week 14 Match Ups & Predictions

Week 14 saw two perennial AFC powers falter, a couple of division races tighten up, a newcomer to the post season inch closer to their official invite, and a new record set for regular season wins.  Perennial powers Pittsburgh, losers of four in row, and New England, losers of two in a row, are starting to cause some serious concern for their fans.

The Steelers lost to Oakland 27-24, giving up two fourth quarter touchdowns to a team that had been averaging only 11 points a game. At 6-6, it is doubtful they will even make the playoffs.

The Patriots lost 22-21 to division rival Miami, cutting their lead in the AFC East to one game. Cincinnati won their ninth game of the season, beating Detroit 23-13. This, combined with Pittsburgh’s loss as well as Baltimore’s loss to Green Bay on Monday night gives them a three game lead in the AFC North as well as the tie breaker over these two teams by virtue of their season sweep.

The Indianapolis Colts left no doubt as to which team is the best in the AFC South with their 27-17 win over Tennessee. This win put them at 12-0 for the season, as well as setting a new record for most regular season wins in a row at 21.

Denver won again beating Kansas City 44-13, and is still only one game back of San Diego in the AFC West. The Chargers beat Cleveland 30-23 for their seventh straight victory.

Jacksonville firmed up their grip on a wildcard spot beating Houston 23-18, and the Jets kept their postseason dreams alive with a 19-13 win over Buffalo last Thursday night.

Moving onto week 14 in the AFC, the key match ups we will be reviewing are; Pittsburgh @ Cleveland, Miami @ Jacksonville, and Denver @ Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10 ) @ Cleveland Browns Current Over/Under 36.5

After four straight losses, last year’s Super Bowl Champions are not only out of the AFC North division race, they are in real danger of not even making the playoffs. Breakdowns in all phases of the game have plagued the Steelers. The low point in their season came last week when Raider QB Bruce Gradkowski led not one, but two fourth quarter scoring drives including throwing the game winning TD with 15 seconds left to play, dropping their record to 6-6.

Without SS Troy Polamalu in the line-up, they have a very average secondary that can be scored on. Fortunately, they face the 1-11 Browns this week who have made an art of blowing the few opportunities they have had to win games this year, taking losing to a whole new level.

While it is doubtful Pittsburgh will make the post season the way they are currently playing, it should still be good enough to beat the Browns on Thursday. I like the Steelers and the OVER.

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3 ) Current Over/Under 44

Both these teams were left for dead earlier in the season, but they have continued to find ways to win games, keeping themselves squarely in the AFC playoff picture.

Looking at their stats for the year they are extremely similar on both sides of the ball. They will both look to run the ball and control the line of scrimmage as to avoid putting the game completely in the hands of their quarterback. My intangible in this game is Miami’s resilience this season as they have played one of the toughest schedules in the league and are still 6-6.

Given the fact that they need this game a bit more than the Jaguars I’m going with the Dolphins and the UNDER.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (-7 ) Current Over/Under 44

The division is clinched, home field advantage is all but locked up, and the winning record is set so how much motivation can the Colts muster against a Denver team that still needs to win is the big question in this game?

They are playing at home so this adds a bit of incentive as well as the fact that they have not technically locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but will that be enough to cover a touchdown spread to a hungry Broncos team?

Denver has recovered from their mid season slump and is back to playing the way that got them to 6-0 in the first place. Their defense is ranked third overall and second against the pass which helps to negate the Colt’s biggest strength; their passing game. On offense they will look to grind it out on the ground against an Indianapolis defense that is ranked eightenth against the run.

I like the Broncos and the UNDER.

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