Larry Johnson To Sign With Cincinnati Bengals: Fantasy Football Impact

Ten weeks deep into the fantasy football season the waiver wire starts looking like a graveyard, especially when looking for running backs.

When you push that little “add” button most wires will auto-sort by preseason rankings, and there sits Larry Johnson with that tiny red NA next to his name.

Monday afternoon Larry Johnson will quickly have those two letters removed when he signs with the AFC Central leading Cincinnati Bengals, who open another troubled player to their roster with open arms. 

The Bengals star running back Cedric Benson , who has a rap sheet long enough to match his list of on-field accomplishments, strained his hip against Pittsburgh.

While he should start this week, it does create concern at the position.

All reports are that Johnson is being brought in as an insurance policy, someone who is being brought in as the fourth back on the roster, and someone who will need to work his way up from the bottom if he wants a shot at PT.

Child Please.  Cincinnati is the home of second chances, the best way to get the coaches attention is to wind up in the local police report.  I think it would be foolish to assume the Bengals are bringing in a player like Johnson to hold a dummy in practice.

Benson is on pace to finish with over 1,600 total yards on the year, he is nine carries away from his career high, and has already broke career rushing high.  Nobody is saying Benson is a soft runner, but this is the first time his body has had to take the punishment of a full NFL season and it is starting to show. 

Rookie RB Bernard Scott has big play potential, but the scat back is only averaging 3.3 YPC on the year. Briand Leonard has established himself in the passing game, but he will never develop into the rusher some though he would.

The Bengals need to be able to lean on teams late in the game via the run, and adding another big bruising back like Johnson into the mix will allow them to put teams away and bleed clock.  A hungry Johnson on a winning team is also something we haven’t seen in a long time, I expect him to adapt quickly to the Bengals locker room and their mentality of winning.

This season we’ve seen Braylon Edwards come in and catch a TD a week after being traded.  We saw Michael Crabtree quickly become San Francisco’s No. 1 target.  It isn’t easy to get up to speed in the NFL, but it isn’t impossible either—when it comes down to it football players will make football plays.

If you are in a deep league or one with lots of flex spots Johnson becomes a worthwhile add.  He isn’t a speed back, but he is capable of breaking off giant chucks of yardage and finishing with TDs. 

If you are in a standard league he is a fringe add depending on the hand injuries have dealt you and your overall depth at the RB position.

Keep in mind the Bengals play Detroit in Week 13, San Diego in Week 15, and Kansas City (LJ’s former team) in Week 16.  Even for a backup those are good matchups.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Larry Johnson To Sign With Cincinnati Bengals: Fantasy Football Impact

Ten weeks deep into the fantasy football season the waiver wire starts looking like a graveyard, especially when looking for running backs.

When you push that little “add” button most wires will auto-sort by preseason rankings, and there sits Larry Johnson with that tiny red NA next to his name.

Monday afternoon Larry Johnson will quickly have those two letters removed when he signs with the AFC Central leading Cincinnati Bengals, who open another troubled player to their roster with open arms. 

The Bengals star running back Cedric Benson , who has a rap sheet long enough to match his list of on-field accomplishments, strained his hip against Pittsburgh.

While he should start this week, it does create concern at the position.

All reports are that Johnson is being brought in as an insurance policy, someone who is being brought in as the fourth back on the roster, and someone who will need to work his way up from the bottom if he wants a shot at PT.

Child Please.  Cincinnati is the home of second chances, the best way to get the coaches attention is to wind up in the local police report.  I think it would be foolish to assume the Bengals are bringing in a player like Johnson to hold a dummy in practice.

Benson is on pace to finish with over 1,600 total yards on the year, he is nine carries away from his career high, and has already broke career rushing high.  Nobody is saying Benson is a soft runner, but this is the first time his body has had to take the punishment of a full NFL season and it is starting to show. 

Rookie RB Bernard Scott has big play potential, but the scat back is only averaging 3.3 YPC on the year. Briand Leonard has established himself in the passing game, but he will never develop into the rusher some though he would.

The Bengals need to be able to lean on teams late in the game via the run, and adding another big bruising back like Johnson into the mix will allow them to put teams away and bleed clock.  A hungry Johnson on a winning team is also something we haven’t seen in a long time, I expect him to adapt quickly to the Bengals locker room and their mentality of winning.

This season we’ve seen Braylon Edwards come in and catch a TD a week after being traded.  We saw Michael Crabtree quickly become San Francisco’s No. 1 target.  It isn’t easy to get up to speed in the NFL, but it isn’t impossible either—when it comes down to it football players will make football plays.

If you are in a deep league or one with lots of flex spots Johnson becomes a worthwhile add.  He isn’t a speed back, but he is capable of breaking off giant chucks of yardage and finishing with TDs. 

If you are in a standard league he is a fringe add depending on the hand injuries have dealt you and your overall depth at the RB position.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Week Two Starts N’ Sits for Success

In all fantasy sports it takes three S’s to have a successful season–stars, starters, and sleepers.  In fantasy football you always have to make that tough decision on who you will play and who will ride the pine.

After you’re done with the three S’s be sure to watch my starts n’ sits YouTube video and also watch my Week Two Pick’em video while you’re at it!

Star

Sit: Jay Cutler Vs Pittsburgh – Even without Troy Polamalu in the lineup the Steelers are still an imposing defense to face.  Cutler may not throw four picks, but he will be facing more pocket pressure than he did last week, and more than he faced in all of 2008.  LoStradamus prediction: 225 passing yards, one TD, two INTs.

Sit: Braylon Edwards Vs Denver – After struggling to connect with Brady Quinn against the Vikings, Edwards will have to deal with Champ Bailey hounding him all game.  All it takes is one play though, so if you are thin at WR don’t seat him just because.  LoStradamus prediction: Three receptions and 45 yards.

Start: Ronnie Brown Vs Indianapolis – After a disappointing loss to Atlanta the Dolphins are going to be looking to come out with a splash.  The Colts run-D is still a bit suspect and could use the wildcat to his advantage in Week Two.  LoStradamus prediction:  110 total yards, one rushing TD, 25 passing yards, one passing TD.

Sit: LaDainian Tomlinson Vs Baltimore – You never want to have to sit a first round back, but right now LT is slated as a game time decision up against a Ravens D that allowed 29 rushing yards.  Is the potential of a score worth the risk of a zero?  LoStradamus prediction:  45 total yards.

Starter

Sit: Kevin Smith Vs Minnesota – A Lions’ RB plus the Vikings D equals very few rushing yards.  Now Smith was able to break a few big runs against Minnesota last year, but it’s hard to bank on one big play for your starting RB.  LoStradamus prediction: 45 total yards.

Start: Darren McFadden Vs Kansas City – The Chiefs gave up 198 rushing yards against Baltimore and Oakland has an equally dangerous ground attack.  We also saw a lot of split-out looks from McFadden and he is a solid route runner.  LoStradamus prediction: 150 total yards and one TD.

Sit: Cedric Benson Vs Green Bay – Don’t be fooled by Benson’s 108 total yards and a TD against the Broncos, a majority of his fantasy production came on the team’s final drive.  The Packers held Matt Forte to 55 rushing yards on 25 carries, their new 3-4 scheme is looking much more productive.  LoStradamus prediction: 65 total yards.

Sleeper

Start: Washington Defense Vs St. Louis – Only one team was shut-out in Week 1 and that was the Rams.  The Skins addressed the D in free-agency and the draft so it’s time to put their money where their mouth is.   LoStradamus prediction:  10 points allowed, four sacks, and two turnovers.

Start: Fred Jackson Vs Tampa Bay – The dual-threat ability of Jackson makes him a strong play in Week Two.  Another bonus of Jackson owners is that the Bills only have one other RB and he’s half the player of Jackson.  LoStradamus prediction:  125 total yards and one TD.

Start: Mike Bush Vs Kansas City – The big, but deceptive back had a strong showing against the Chargers and he’s hungry to get in the goal line.  If you’re playing in a deep league give Bush a look and he’s also a great hedge play with McFadden.  LoStradamus prediction: 80 total yards and one TD.

Start: Chester Taylor Vs Detroit – Taylor was a bit of a no-show in Week One but it all means the Vikings could be setting up some plays for Week Two.  AP is still an automatic start but if you’re looking for an extra RB Taylor has a shot to get in the zone.  LoStradamus prediction:  60 total yards and one TD.

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Send questions to iwantstats@iwantstats.com for the MailBag Show or Tweet me @JohnLorge.
Don’t forget to watch The Daily Dosage on YouTube!

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Steelers, And Brady, And Bears, Oh My: The NFL’s Top Week One Matchups

Thank God, Allah, and Buddha, it’s football season ladies and gentlemen. 

The air is a little crisper, the kids are back in school, and finally sports radio has something relevant to talk about. 

The action doesn’t get any better than the NFL and football fans are already getting a healthy does of marquee matchups in Week One.  Here are some of the most interesting storylines for the week.

And be sure to watch my full NFL Week 1 Preview (click here) YouTube Video when you’re done.

Towel Stompin’ LenDale White Heads Into Heinz Field

While we like to think the pros are giving 110 percent every snap of every play, it’s amazing what a little locker room material can do.

Last year White and the Titans trampled on the Terrible Towel after rolling the eventual Super Bowl Champs 31-14 in Tennessee. The best part is that LenDale White says he will deface Pittsburgh’s yellow terrycloth icon again if he gets the opportunity.

News flash Mr. White, you will be seeing about 65,050 of them flying high as well as 11 angry Steelers on Thursday Night. 

Don’t worry about the Pittsburgh being hung over from all the Super Bowl celebrations. White and the Titans have put a giant bull’s eye on themselves to start the season.

Tom Brady’s Head Versus His Knee Versus His Shoulder

The only thing that can stop Tom Brady against Buffalo is Tom Brady.  He looks like he has recovered fully from his knee injury but a jammed shoulder courtesy of Albert Haynesworth in the preseason may have him second guessing and looking to get the ball out of his hands prematurely.

Buffalo’s defense isn’t one of the feared groups in the NFL, but they did hold New England to 33 points in two games last season. And nobody wants 6’6″, 310 pound Marcus Stroud coming down on them.

Expect the Pats to get Brady in rhythm through running the ball and with the highly effective dink-and-doink offense of screens and draws—although Randy Moss should get a deep look or two.

NE can win this game easily with a conservative approach. The Bills will be starting the most inexperienced offensive line in the NFL, they just fired their offensive coordinator, and starting tailback Marshawn Lynch is suspended for the first three games of the season. 

Buffalo’s new no huddle offense has an equally good shot of imploding as exploding—same goes for the newest Bill, Terrell Owens

 

The New York Giants’ Chess Match With The Newly Informed Redskins

Tom Coughlin and the New York Giants were very worried that Andre Woodson would be spilling the beans on the Giants’ scheme after being released and heading to the division rival Redskins.

It is a valid concern—in a post-Spygate era, nobody can underestimate just how far another team will go to get the upper hand. 

If anything, this is another piece of locker room material for the G-Men. They have to cheat us to beat us, and nobody likes a cheater.

If you are Eli Manning you must plan for this accordingly, change the snap count, reverse terminology, and give dummy calls. In other words, do your best impersonation of your brother.

If you are Eli Manning you are also looking for a new wingman to replace Plaxico Burress.  Expect Hakeem Nicks to make a big splash in his first game. He had some monstrous plays in the preseason and the other Giants receivers continually let Eli down late in the season last year.

The Redskins did add the mammoth Albert Haynesworth and dynamic rookie Brian Orakpo, but the Giants get Osi Umenyiora back at defensive end and they have one of the most cohesive offensive lines in football, with all five members having played together since 2005.

LaDainian Tomlinson Against Oakland’s Defense

In 16 regular season games against Oakland, LT has averaged 119.1 rushing yards per game and scored 22 total TDs.  In other words, he’s had one of the greatest seasons of all-time against the Raiders.

Last year LT was knocked of his perch as the league’s top player not named Tom or Peyton, but he still managed to rush for 197 yards and three scores against San Diego’s NorCal foes. 

Tomlinson knows Super Bowl XLIV is his best shot of winning a ring. The Chargers need a quick start to the season to earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs after an 0-2 start to 2008 had them playing catch-up all year.

The Chargers’ 4,000-yard passing game is getting a lot of attention but look for them to set the tone with the run, especially if Richard Seymour isn’t ready to play by Monday Night.

The 178th Bears-Packers Slugfest

Ding, ding, ding.  This knock-down, drag-out battle has been a Midwest classic and anticipated matchup since 1921. 

Bears fans are welcoming Jay Cutler to the helm, a player some are calling the best quarterback the Bears have ever had in those 88 years of the NFL’s oldest rivalry. 

From Brian Urlacher to Devin Hester, it seems like every week Cutler has been in a media mess with one of his current or former teammates or coaches, and nobody should be happier for the new season to get underway.

For the Packers, Brett Favre is an afterthought since Aaron Rodgers passed for 4,038 yards and 28 TDs with only 13 interceptions in 2008. 

The Packers have switched to the ultra-popular 3-4 defense now that Dom Capers is in town, but there are questions about whether they have the personnel to run it at a playoff caliber level.

Before you crown the Minnesota Vikings NFC North Champs, be sure to give these two teams a look because they will be playing for more than just a wildcard birth in 2009. 

DeAngelo Williams Faces A Jim Johnson-less Eagles Defense

Nobody finished the 2008 season hotter than DeAngelo Williams and the Carolina Panthers’ two-headed rushing attack.  Unfortunately, the other head—Jonathan Stewart—is entering the season with a serious Achilles injury and rookie Mike Goodson might not be ready for a serious load.

Oh well, right?  Williams averaged 5.5 yards per carry on his way to racking up 1,636 total yards and 20 TDs last year—just give him the damn ball.

Not so fast. The Philadelphia Eagles only gave up 3.5 yards per carry in 2008 and when Williams faced defenses of that caliber last year (Minnesota and Chicago) he was held to 2.7 yards per carry. 

But how do you make up for the loss of safety Brian Dawkins (Denver), linebacker Stewart Bradley (injury), and defensive coordinator Jim Johnson?

Something has to give.  Expect the Eagles to be playing inspired football as a tribute to the late Johnson. 

Philly will continue playing that aggressive style of defense that teams struggle with and they will be focused on shutting down Williams, forcing the erratic Jake Delhomme to beat them.

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Send questions to iwantstats@iwantstats.com for the MailBag Show or Tweet me @JohnLorge.
Don’t forget to watch The Daily Dosage on YouTube!

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football 411: The Preseason Limps Into Action

We’ve played the Hall of Fame game, and now it’s time for the rest of the NFL to get down and dirty.

Unfortunately, there are some players who will never see the game field in 2009 due to injuries. Others will miss the entire preseason.

Training camp has been especially hard on wide receivers, as the repetitions and battles with defensive backs has taken its toll.

Let’s take a look at how the latest storylines could impact your fantasy football season.

Only Steve Smith Can Stop Steve Smith

The Panthers’ star receiver is in jeopardy of missing the team’s opener for a second year in a row, but this time it’s due to injury.

Steve Smith, who initially thought he broke something in his shoulder, jammed it on the turf—continuing his history of shoulder injuries. I don’t think the injury will stop Smith from playing. He’s too tough and too competitive, but it could have a slight impact on his performance.

Don’t downgrade Smith too much, but think twice before drafting him in the second round.

Braylon Edwards Healthy and Hungry

Braylon Edwards is a receiver, he’s paid to catch the ball, so it’s never good when his name is synonymous with drops. In fact, Edwards led the NFL with 16 drops last year. On the positive, 2009 is a contract year for Braylon. This means if he wants to get paid, he needs to catch the football.

He’s been having successful practices in Cleveland this summer, and you can anticipate Edwards having a very good season, regardless of who’s throwing him the ball.

Super Sleeper Donnie Avery Falls Back Asleep

In practice, Donnie Avery hurt his foot and he is supposed to miss up to six weeks, which could have him missing the first few games of the season. Not only will Avery miss time, but foot injuries need time and rest to fully recover, meaning this could stick with Avery all season.

The Rams will be looking to Keenan Burton, Ronald Curry, Nate Jones, and Laurent Robinson to take over for Avery. This makes all four potential sleeper picks, but nobody has risen as a clear No. 1 option. 

As for Avery, you can downgrade his sleeper status from the middle to the later part of the draft—there is a chance he may even hit the waiver wire in some leagues.

Antonio Bryant Shipwrecked In Bucs Camp

Out with a torn meniscus, Antonio Bryant will miss the rest of Tampa Bay’s camp and maybe more time. This doesn’t look good for a team trying to find a new QB who was counting on Bryant to provide some stability.

With Joey Galloway in New England, Tampa will let Dexter Jackson, Michael Clayton, Joel Filani, Maurice Stovall, Sammie Stroughter, Cortez Hankton, and Paris Warren battle it out. 

From a fantasy perspective the injury may help new-Buc Kellen Winslow, who will now be the premier target in the receiving game.

The Bucs could be the worst team in football, which might have worked out well for Bryant. With this injury, there’s no reason to reach on him, or really to draft him at all unless his injury is less significant than initially reported.

Star Defenders Stuck In Star Caps Case 

You could make a Pro Bowl caliber defensive line of the four players suspended from Minnesota and New Orleans due to the Star Caps case.

The Saints will be without Charles Grant and Will Smith for the first four games of the season, making their defense a questionable play against Detroit, Philadelphia, Buffalo and the Jets. Yes, I said Detroit and Buffalo.

For Minnesota, there’s still a pending court case that will decide whether Pat Williams and Kevin Williams can play or not. The players and team are hopeful, but you wish for the best and prepare for the worst.

The Vikings D is still draft worthy. This is a team that will be calling on that D to keep them in the NFL playoff hunt. You may want to reconsider reaching to draft them until a verdict has been reached, though.

A suspension would be welcome by Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and Green Bay in those four weeks.

Philly D Looking Swiss Cheesed

First, the Eagles let captain Brian Dawkins go to the Broncos. There goes their heart.

With MLB Stewart Bradley out for the year, and defensive coordinator Jimmie Johnson coaching from the box in the sky, Philly seems to have severed their head. The Eagles received another scare when Trent Cole, who’s recorded 21.5 sacks over the past two seasons, incurred a sprained left shoulder.

A month ago, the Eagles defense looked like they should be a top-five fantasy D. They get sacks, force turnovers, and hold their opponents. With all of the injuries and change, Philly’s defense is being put into question. I still have them as a top 10 defense, but don’t reach outside of the final few rounds to get them.

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Send questions to iwantstats@iwantstats.com for the MailBag Show or Tweet me @JohnLorge.
Don’t forget to watch The Daily Dosage on YouTube!

Is Matt Cassel the Poor Man’s Tom Brady or Rich Man’s Billy Volek?

You know Matt Cassel? 

The preseason PR story turned most coveted quarterback in the NFL. 

The second coming of Tom Brady…Not so fast.

There is no denying that Cassel was impressive last year.  As a regular season starter for the first time since high school, he led the Patriots to an 11-5 record on the year and posted back-to-back 400 yard passing games in weeks 11 and 12.

A feat the Tom Brady hasn’t even accomplished.

Want to know who HAS thrown for back-to-back 400 yard games?

Billy Volek.

In 2004, Steve McNair struggled with injuries with for the Tennessee Titans, giving Volek the opportunity to start eight games and play in 10. 

In that time Volek compiled 2,486 yards, completing 61.1 percent of his passes.  He threw 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions to his receiving corps that included Derrick Mason, Drew Bennett, and Ben Troupe. 

It’s a Team Sport

There is no position in sports that gets more praise, more criticism, or more attention in general than the quarterback.

Occasionally the QB deserves the volume of cheers or boos headed his direction.  Often times the quarterback is receiving attention that’s deserved for his teammates or coaches.

Any quarterback has to be proud of an 11-5 record whether he threw for 2,000 or 4,000 yards.  The reality is that football is a team sport and Cassel’s success had to do with him being a reaction, not a catalyst.

Of the Pats 11 wins they came against the second, third, fourth, seventh, 10th, 11th (2x), 12th, 17th, 25th, and 31st picks of the NFL Draft.  The five losses came against the 16th, 17th, 25th, 27th, and 32nd picks of the draft.

Playing with a fantastic defense and with a very talented offense, Cassel helped NE win the games they should.  In all reality, Brady would have won 14-to-16 games with the same schedule.

As a starter, Volek was 2-6 in 2004 on a team that was reeling losses of Eddie George, Justin McCareins, and Jevon Kearse.  The Titans did not have enough talent surrounding the quarterback for Volek, let alone McNair, to win. 

It was interesting to watch Cassel’s progression throughout the year.  With a backfield-by-committee and high percentage passing options then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels was able to keep the Patriots train rolling for the most part.

Statistically, Cassel was solid, even very good in some instances—he was far from Tom Brady, however.
 
Cassel never really found a rhythm with Randy Moss, the best jump-ball receiver in the NFL, because he has a very pedestrian deep ball.  Overthrows, underthrows—Moss was half as effective as he was in 2007.

Many of the short passes went to Wes Welker, the premier possession receiver in the NFL.  This is where Cassel proved to be more effective but he was working with the best in the business.

We all saw what Brady did in 2007 with the same passing attack and although Laurence Maroney was injured, the 2008 Patriots had a bigger (2278 to 1849 rushing yards) and better (4.4 to 4.1 YPC) rushing game than the 2007 version.  Cassel did add 270 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) to Brady’s 98 (2.6 YPC).
   

We Play to Win the Games… and Get Paid

It’s every pro athlete’s dream to have their most successful season during a contract year.  As a businessman, you hear a caching with every successful moment. 

Had Cassel encountered this success one or two years ago he would have still been coveted by other teams, but as an inexpensive insurance option, he would have remained a Patriot. 

The most recent situation like Cassel’s was Damon Huard in 2006. 

Huard had bounced around the NFL, and even spent time as Brady’s backup before Cassel. 

In his 2006 contract year he backed-up the injury-prone Trent Green.

As usual, Green went down and Huard was able to win five of three stars with a 11-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, good enough to keep Kansas City in the playoff hunt.  The Chiefs rewarded Huard with a three year, $8 million contract and the starting role in 2007.

It’s funny how KC will be starting another backup who flourished in a contract year.

As for Volek, he was not as fortunate to be in a contract year during his 2004 breakout. 

He was in a similar situation to Brady, replacing an aging vet.

Volek stuck it out in Tennessee, playing some in 2005, and it looked like he would get an opportunity to start in 2006 after McNair went to Baltimore.

The Titans never felt that way. 

Tennessee brought in Kerry Collins and drafted Vince Young in the 2006 offseason.

Volek felt deceived, had a rift with Jeff Fisher, and was sent to San Diego after completing 64.3 percent of his passes for Tennessee in the preseason.

New Hollywood

There was an unbelievable multiplier effect that made Matt Cassel this season. 

First, Tom Brady was injured. 

Of all of the predictions before the season this was the one nobody made. 

Brady is a media darling and when he fell it was perceived that the Patriots would be lost without him—never mind the fact that NE is a team built on defense and efficient offense.

Second, it’s New England or sports’ version of Hollywood. 

With the Patriots, Red Sox, and Celtics the Boston sports machine has been through the roof.

No matter how many degrees of separation there are between the playing field and the issue at hand, it will be blown up to catastrophic proportions.

Third, Cassel had a story. 

No, he hadn’t started a regular season game since high school but he did star all four of the teams preseason games in 2008.

Cassel wasn’t a rookie and he wasn’t a former bag boy either.  He played behind Heismans at USC and an MVP in New England. 

At 26-years-old Cassel is entering his athletic prime and the Patriots would not have had him as their backup QB if he was just some charity case.

Back to Reality

For those with high hopes in the Midwest there’s going to be some let-down for Chiefs fans next-year.

Not only did KC make a critical error in trading away Tony Gonzalez, but they have questions in the backfield.  Their defense has improved but they need time to congeal and cannot afford any injuries.

Most backups in the NFL could have broken the 10 win mark in New England last season, Billy Volek included.

As long as Brady remains healthy the Patriots only real question marks are games against Baltimore, Tennessee, Miami, and Indianapolis. 

Double-digit wins are not a goal, they are a requirement.

It’s been amazing to watch the Matt Cassel saga this offseason. 

If the Patriots though he was an elite quarterback don’t you think they would have got more in return for him?

Matt Cassel is a former backup who proved he is a starting caliber quarterback, nothing more, and nothing less.

How the 2009 NFL Draft Impacts Fantasy Football

I love the NFL Draft, but what’s more important to me than where 2009’s prospects were drafted, is how they play on the field.

For something like fantasy football, you don’t (or shouldn’t) care about when a player is drafted and if it was a reach or a steal.  All that matters is where they play, who they play, and how many points they will get for your team when they do play.

Let’s take a closer look at how some of the top rookies will do, as well as some sleeper picks.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) is the only rookie who has a chance at being a starter when the season kicks off (barring injury).

If Sanchez is the starter, I wouldn’t recommend taking him much higher than a kicker or defense, but it doesn’t mean he won’t be successful.  You can expect the Jets’ quarterback to play in a ball control style of offense much like Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens.

Sanchez might earn a spot start on a few fantasy rosters this season, but he should not be your regular starter because he won’t record enough fantasy value stats.

It will be interesting to see how the fantasy leagues handle Pat White (MIA).  Will he have dual eligibility?

Miami will use White eight to ten times per game, if not more, giving him an opportunity for a touchdown per game whether it’s through the air or ground —possibly even catching a pass from Chad Pennington as well.

I would not laugh at someone drafting White in the top 100 because of his fantasy ceiling, but he does carry risk.

Running Backs

Last year, rookie runners were pivotal in most owners’ playoff runs.  It doesn’t matter if they were picked in the beginning, middle, or end of the draft; all players are just one play away from the spotlight.

However, I don’t expect the same production out of this year’s group.

Denver made a power play drafting Knowshon Moreno and new head coach Josh McDaniels will use him a lot.  I like Moreno as a fantasy player because you don’t have to necessarily hand him the ball to be productive.  I see Moreno ranking in the top 75 prospects to start the season.

Other first-rounders, Donald Brown (IND) and Chris Wells (ARZ), should also be fantasy productive as well.  Brown will be behind Joseph Addai, but being a versatile back, expect it to be a shared backfield in Indy earning him a worthy mid-late fantasy round pick.  Wells should unseat Tim Hightower as the starter in Arizona, but he carries some risk entering the fantasy season, earning him a mid-to-late round pick as well.

With Brian Westbrook’s health in question LeSean McCoy (PHI) will take some of the load in Philly but unless Westbrook is injured, I don’t expect many touchdowns from him, making him a reach in fantasy drafts.

Shonne Greene (NYJ) was very productive last year in college, though his one-sidedness puts his rookie potential into question.  Thomas Jones has never been much of a touchdown machine, but in Rex Ryan’s philosophy I expect him to get a bulk of the red zone carries.  I would hold off on picking Greene until it looks like he will be a major part of the running game.

Another waiver wire sleeper to watch for is Andre Brown of the New York Giants. He ran a sub 4.4 forty at the combine and will be replacing Derrick Ward behind NY’s great offensive line.

If Willis McGahee cannot bear the load in Baltimore, Cedric Peerman will earn some touches.

Lastly, I like Rashad Jennings the seventh-round pick of Jacksonville. The Jags have both lost Fred Taylor and upgraded their offensive line.  Jennings will add some much needed size to the rotation and could earn some goal line carries.

Wide Receivers

We are looking at one of the thickest rookie receiver crops in a long time.

While I wasn’t a fan of the Darrius Heyward-Bey pick, the Raiders will attempt to get him the ball deep making him a good option as a fifth, maybe fourth receiver in your draft.  That being said, I think he will be a bust as a player, so beware.

Michael Crabtree (SF) lacks a trustworthy quarterback right now, but he will be working opposite Isaac Bruce, which will help him to get open. I like his chances of out producing DHB as a rookie.

Other speedsters Jeremy Maclin and Percy Harvin received warm welcomes form Philadelphia and Minnesota, respectively.  Whether it’s in the receiving, running, returning, or even the wildcat, Maclin will score touchdowns this year.  I don’t expect him to rack-up a ton of yards though.  Harvin will be used in many of the same ways Maclin will be, maybe in an even more diverse setting.  Teams are starting to stack the box against the Vikings, which will give Harvin plenty of space to work.  I like Maclin as a fifth receiver and late round pick, while I may take Harvin more towards the middle rounds as my rookie receiver with the highest ceiling.

The New York Giants drafted a very NFL-ready receiver in Hakeem Nicks and a project of sorts in Ramses Barden.  Nicks is the best receiver on the New York squad, and he should consume a lot of yards and catches with decent touchdown production.  Barden has great jump ball potential in the end zone and he should have a high YPC with limited receptions.  I would take Nicks somewhere after the 10th round and would wait on Barden before I roster him.

In Tennessee, Kenny Britt will get an opportunity to be the man but don’t expect the Titans to air-it-out much.  He’s a late-round grab at best.

Cleveland also added two good receivers in Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi, and it doesn’t necessarily mean they are moving Braylon Edwards.  Robiskie is much more polished and should be the Brown’s second receiver while Massaquoi is more of an insurance policy competing for the third or fourth receiver position.  Depending on who’s throwing in Cleveland, Robiskie would be good as a very late pick because he’s ready to play right now.

Miami made an interesting selection in the third round with Patrick Turner out of USC.  Expect Turner to be used in an H-back role where the accurate Pennington can exploit him in mismatches.  If there’s nobody left, Turner could be a sleeper pick and he’s definitely a player to keep your eye on.

Chicago made the big offseason trade for Jay Cutler, and in the third round they added to his arsenal with Juaquin Iglesias.  This could be a very productive pick for Chicago. Iglesias has plenty of experience and Cutler has proven success with rookie receivers.  I don’t think he will be Rookie of the Year, but Iglesias is a strong fourth or fifth receiver for your roster. Also keep you eye on Chicago’s Johnny Knox.

I’m a big fan of short receivers because of they are great route runners and usually have to be very athletic to get as far as they have.  Apparently Jacksonville is thinking the same thing, going away from the giant receivers they had last year.  Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard will be learning from and working along side Torry Holt, giving the Jags their best receivers since the Jimmy Smith-Keenan McCardell days.  I like Thomas, but Dillard was my top sleeper in the entire draft, so I will give him the nod if you’re choosing between the two.  Dillard could have Eddie Royal numbers, and I will be picking him late in the draft.

Anthony Gonzalez should be looking over his shoulder in Indianapolis because the Colts may have drafted Marvin Harrison’s replacement in Austin Collie out of BYU.  Collie has fantastic hands and he is a very good route runner and ball carrier.  He cannot run the go route like Harrison, and I cannot suggest him as a pick because he will start the season as the team’s sixth offensive weapon, but keep an eye on him.

The last potential deep sleepers are Brandon Gibson of the Eagles and Demetrius Byrd of the Chargers.  Neither player merits a pick but they could be instrumental in their teams’ success late in the season.

Tight Ends

With Daunte Culpepper under center in Detroit, Brandon Pettigrew will have plenty of opportunities to get big and make a first down, or touchdown catch.  Pettigrew should be on the board fairly late in the draft so if you’re not going to target one of the elite tight ends, be sure to include the former Oklahoma State Cowboy on your watch-list.

The Titans have been looking for a go-to tight end for a while, and they got a steal in the third round with the super athletic tight end Jared Cook.  This is primarily a receiving pick, which bodes well for fantasy players.  I wouldn’t expect Cook to be a draft pick, but if he emerges as the primary target down the middle of the field add him quick.

The New York Giants seem happy with Kevin Boss, but his stats may take a hit with the addition of Travis Beckum.  Considered an H-back in the NFL, Beckum may produce a touchdown here and there but nothing draft worthy.

Shawn Nelson is another H-back type in Buffalo with playmaking skills. It doesn’t look like there will enough balls coming his way for a pick this season though.

Cincinnati and Houston also added very good tight ends in Chase Coffman and James Casey, respectively.  Both players catch the ball very well and are worth keeping your eye on.

The last tight end pick that could impact the fantasy season is Cornelius Ingram going to Philadelphia.  Ingram hasn’t played football in over a year, but he could come down with the clutch catches for Philly that L.J. Smith couldn’t.

The 2009 NFL Draft Live Blog

Finally, the 2009 NFL Draft is here.

I’m sure you’ve mocked yourself out by now and all you care about is seeing how thew draft will fall out.

The chips, dips, and beverages have been bought.  I am in draft HQ with my buddies PJ and Scott – we have NFL Network on one TV and ESPN on the other.

During the draft we’ll be playing a mock draft game (1 point for correct team & pick number, half points for correct team or pick number) as well as predicting the players pick by pick.

I’ll also be playing ESPN’s Streak for the Draft game.

Throughout the day I will be updating you with all things important, analytical, speculative, and funny so be sure to check back often.

You can also interact by posting comments and I WILL respond.

1:04 PM (PST):  It looks like the Lions weren’t even going to let Goodell leave the stage.  There’s nothing better than watching the number one pick coming to the stage with boos from the New York fans.

1:25 PM: Jackson was the first blown pick in my mock, as we’re watching the highlights PJ is yelling, “BUST”.  Jackson won’t have great stats but he can be disruptive and make an impact on every down.  It looks like the Seahawks will be taking Curry, extending my Streak for the Draft to two.

1:39 PM: Like when the Ultimate Warrior used to run into the run to the ring the Radio City Music Hall is exploding.  Sanchez will be the next quarterback of the Jets. 

This is a huge move by Rex Ryan’s Jets.  NY will be playing the same style of defense Baltimore played last year.  The Jets will control the pace of the game and allow Sanchez to be successful by focusing on risk mitigation.

PJ’s dad, Lou, a lifelong Jets fan said this is the first time in 45 years he has been happy with the Jets pick. 

New York is making a statement.

1:56 PM:  Al Davis drops a bomb!  Oakland did it!  Heyward-Bey is a Raider and Al Davis has to hope DHB isn’t a bust because they may have just passed on the next great receiver for the most Jekyll and Hyde player in the draft.

2:21 PM:  Crabtree is going to SF and has a reason to put it on Oakland every time they meet across the Bay.  In the top ten this is easily the steal.  In two years he has had more experience running routes and catching passes in football games than most seniors.  “Draft Streak” is at 5.

2:36 PM: My Streak broke on the Moreno selection.  I really like the pick by Denver because Moreno is one of my top 10 players but I was almost certain they were going to draft defense.

3:13 PM:  The Browns have to have set a record for most trades in the first round.  It looks like they may be targeting Clay Matthews at 21 now.

I though Maclin would go at 17 so I am not surprised with the pick at 19.  Philly has made a very good pick here.  McNabb has another weapon to throw to and it was a great value pick.   

If Detroit goes heavy my “Streak” will be back to four.

3:51 PM: It looks like the Pats are looking at trading the pick putting my sixth pick streak in jeopardy.  Plenty of talent on the board, it looks like they are targeting a UConn player in the second round.

4:31 PM: The “Pittsburg Steelers world champion Super Bowl champions” draft Ziggy Hood to close out the first round.  Solid pick although there is a lot of corner back talent on the board.

So far it looks like the Raiders ad the biggest reach in the draft and because of it the 49ers get the biggest steal.

Until the second-round that is.

5:00 PM: Rey Maualuga is the steal of Day One no doubt.  You cannot get better value in a football player than this.  He is a Pro Bowl player and a difference player on D.

The Pats are up soon, is Connor Barwin their man?

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Final 2009 NFL Mock Draft

The draft is only hours away and before the madness begins I wanted to get my final predictions published.

I have not added in any trades for this mock but you may see some players slip because it’s more about who the teams will take than where the players will go.

Because we’ve been mocked out of our minds, I will only be delivering picks, no analysis. 

1. Detroit Lions select Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia

2. St. Louis Rams select Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

3. Kansas City Chiefs select Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest

4. Seattle Seahawks select Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

5. Cleveland Browns select Brian Orakpo, DE/LB, Texas

6. Cincinnati Bengals select Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

7. Oakland Raiders select Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

8. Jacksonville Jaguars select B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College

9. Green Bay Packers select Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State

10. San Francisco 49ers select Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi

11. Buffalo Bills select Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee

12. Denver Broncos select Tyson Jackson, DE, Louisiana State

13. Washington Redskins select Mark Sanchez, QB, Southern California

14. New Orleans Saints select Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S, Ohio State

15. Houston Texans select Brian Cushing, LB, Southern California

16. San Diego Chargers select Rey Maualuga, LB, Southern California

17. New York Jets select Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri

18. Denver Broncos select Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State

20. Detroit Lions select Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi

21. Philadelphia Eagles select Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia

22. Minnesota Vikings select Eben Britton, OT, Arizona

23. New England Patriots select Clay Matthews, OLB, Southern California

24. Atlanta Falcons select Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

25. Miami Dolphins select Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut

26. Baltimore Ravens select Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State

27. Indianapolis Colts select Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

28. Buffalo Bills select William Beatty, OT, Connecticut

29. New York Giants select Larry English, DE/LB, Northern Illinois

30. Tennessee Titans select Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland

31. Arizona Cardinals select Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut

32. Pittsburgh Steelers select Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest

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