Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 17, Falcons at Bucs

And so it comes down to it: One game to validate our season.

One game to prove we really are headed in the right direction. One game to show that new GM Thomas Dimitroff’s personnel moves are good enough to remake an organization. One game to send the team and fans into the offseason with heads held high.

The best chance in recent memory to break the curse of inconsistency that has plagued us and finally string together two winning seasons.

If you think I sound dramatic, you might want to mute the TV tomorrow, and you sure as hell wouldn’t want to hear head coach Mike Smith’s pre-game locker room speech tomorrow.

What said it all to me was Tony Gonzalez’s interview as he was coming off the field at the Jets game two weeks ago. If he still has something to play for this year, then everyone on that team does, too.

The stars are aligning for the Falcons: The opponent is a nobody that we beat earlier with a less healthy and less inspired bunch on our side. Still, going down to Tampa and breaking their streak is not the easiest task the Dirty Birds have had this season.

 

Tampa Bay Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

In my preview of the Week 12 matchup in the Dome, I lamented Cadillac Williams’ lack of production this season. Now that the campaign is more or less done, the numbers I cite are even more telling:

Barring a cataclysmic Atlanta collapse, no Tampa back will finish with even 900 yards on the year; and the man second in yards behind Caddy, highly-touted free agent pickup Derrick Ward, probably isn’t going to touch 500. In other words, this is a one-headed monster on its best days.

Williams was at his most effective last week, when he topped 100 for the first time in ’09 and had his most yards since the opening game. That was against a resting Saints team, though, and not a bunch of inspired Falcons.

Because, see, while the Bay was swooning from their production against the NFC’s best, we weren’t stooping to the level of our competition. We held the Bills to 40 yards on the ground, and that’s with Curtis Lofton notching all of one tackle.

Linebackers taking a back seat like that wasn’t a method that worked so well at the beginning of the season for us, but I’m into what’s smart and what works, and the coaches seem to be, too. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is favoring packages with a defensive back up in the box for extra support more and more as time goes by, as evidenced by the tackle totals for Brent Grimes (nine) and Erik Coleman (seven) last week.

I could certainly see Williams having a decent game, somewhere along the lines of 80 yards, but he will be limited as long as the Bucs have this offensive line. On the other side, we may not have anything left in the tank, but I have a feeling these fellas will run on fumes if they have to.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Tampa Bay Rush Defense

Tampa’s ground D has at least been headed in the right direction since I was breaking down the first matchup: They have improved from their last-place spot.

Of course, they’re now only 30th in the league, so take that with a grain of salt. They just rely way too much on one position (linebacker) for this to be a reliable unit at all.

A couple of stats tell the story: First, the top three tacklers for the Bucs are their starting ‘backers. No, I do not expect a lineman to rack up the numbers, and no, I would not be so naive as to evaluate the line’s performance based solely upon their digits, but it’s sad that the top-tackling guy up front (Stylez White, 42) has just about exactly a third of team-leader Barrett Ruud’s 125.

Second, the team’s stoppage is dead last in runs greater than 20 yards, and that right there just about invalidates any of their efforts. After all, you can hold ’em to two or three for three plays per set of downs, but let up one big one, and well, it’s over.

On to our side of the ball, Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling went out and did just what I said they wouldn’t do last week (that’d be a productive two-back attack). That was against an underprepared and downright scared-looking Buffalo D, sure, but it was a confidence-boosting game nonetheless.

Obviously, if we can, we want to keep it on the ground and grind it out. There are too many ballhawks in the T.B. secondary for us to be relying on the pass (but you know I’ll get to that).

Now, I thought Harvey Dahl was going to be back on the line for last week and then was proved a bald-faced liar when Quinn Ojinnaka started; this week I know for a fact that Ojinnaka’s the one out there. This is a downside for us, as Quinn has been extremely penalty-prone to this point, and seems to infect Tyson Clabo with that same problem when he’s out there.

Of course, we got over the century mark running last week and won the game, so what am I complaining about?

 

Tampa Bay Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

On a team full of sorry units, the air game might just be the weakest for the Buccaneers. Of course, if you know who’s starting down there, that doesn’t even need a qualifier, but in case you’ve had your eyes closed for the past three months:

Josh Freeman’s not only a rookie, but one out of Kansas State. What, they play football there?

Still, I’ve never seen a guy do this poorly and keep his job. Not that Tampa has any other real options behind him, but just to give readers a taste, he’s got his team ranked 30th in interceptions, 29th in completion percentage, 29th in passer rating, 28th in first downs per game, and 28th in points to a contest.

Then again, when we saw him before, we had him playing like he did back in his college days: 20-of-29 for 250 yards, 2 TD and no INT.

So who shows up under center for them tomorrow, and just as important, who’s present in our defensive backfield?

Brent Grimes must be reading DDDB , because he’s picking up his play. I don’t think he ever expected to carry the responsibility he has this season, so really, he might just be ahead of the curve. Erik Coleman also looked more like the leader he’s supposed to be against the Bills.

Freeman just can’t be as hot as he was in the Dome, and if VanGorder goes with the containment style and box-stacking he showed last week, we won’t give up many big plays. That’s fine, because stopping Kellen Winslow after the catch is really the goal; what, you thought you were going to disrupt those hands?

But that brings me to another disadvantage for the Bay’s passing game: Winslow is the beginning and end. Note that his 72 receptions are almost double second-place receiver Antonio Bryant’s 37.

The cards are just stacked against poor Freeman.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

Matt Ryan is another week healthier, and considering his performance as he hobbled last week, I’m feeling OK about that.

The receivers have been our rocks all year long, so no worries there (except for Gonzo’s questionable rating, but I have faith). What does make me a little uncomfortable, though, is how the Buccaneer pass defense has gotten better since we played them.

Ronde Barber has the young boys around him playing up to his level, well enough that they’re all in a pack in terms of tackles and have 17 picks among them. Aqib Talib, for all his off-the-field problems and attitude questions, has emerged as a Asante Samuel-lite sort of player, and Sabby Piscitelli does a solid job of acting as enforcer.

Of course, we had Chris Redman throwing on basically every play in the Week 12 matchup, and that still resulted in no interceptions. Sure, his accuracy was piss-poor, but that’s more a symptom of his own problems, not what Tampa’s coverage was doing to him.

My thought process goes a little something like this: If we had Redman chucking the rock with reckless abandon last time, and still managed to not turn the ball over and eventually score enough to get the W, we’re going to be fine this trip with Ice dropping back instead.

I do not underestimate an 11th-ranked Bay pass D, but I focus instead on the facts that we won’t have to throw it nearly as much (41 times for Chris) and that when we do throw it, it’ll be a much more of a sure thing. If all goes well, the balance of running to gunning will even out a bit more, and Matty will only be relied upon entirely when it comes to the red zone.

 

Prediction: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17

Neither team is going to shoot the lights out. Neither will get an early jump. But I think the Dirty Birds will be in control from start to finish.

The key for me is that our guys know what this game means (for sure they do!) and that they know we’re the better team (here’s hoping they do). Playing away from home (last road game: win over the Jets in chilly NY) and Tampa’s mini-streak cannot be concerns.

Here’s hoping I’m writing a retrospective on what it means to have consecutive plus-.500 seasons later this week.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 17, Falcons at Bucs

And so it comes down to it: One game to validate our season.

One game to prove we really are headed in the right direction. One game to show that new GM Thomas Dimitroff’s personnel moves are good enough to remake an organization. One game to send the team and fans into the offseason with heads held high.

The best chance in recent memory to break the curse of inconsistency that has plagued us and finally string together two winning seasons.

If you think I sound dramatic, you might want to mute the TV tomorrow, and you sure as hell wouldn’t want to hear head coach Mike Smith’s pre-game locker room speech tomorrow.

What said it all to me was Tony Gonzalez’s interview as he was coming off the field at the Jets game two weeks ago. If he still has something to play for this year, then everyone on that team does, too.

The stars are aligning for the Falcons: The opponent is a nobody that we beat earlier with a less healthy and less inspired bunch on our side. Still, going down to Tampa and breaking their streak is not the easiest task the Dirty Birds have had this season.

 

Tampa Bay Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

In my preview of the Week 12 matchup in the Dome, I lamented Cadillac Williams’ lack of production this season. Now that the campaign is more or less done, the numbers I cite are even more telling:

Barring a cataclysmic Atlanta collapse, no Tampa back will finish with even 900 yards on the year; and the man second in yards behind Caddy, highly-touted free agent pickup Derrick Ward, probably isn’t going to touch 500. In other words, this is a one-headed monster on its best days.

Williams was at his most effective last week, when he topped 100 for the first time in ’09 and had his most yards since the opening game. That was against a resting Saints team, though, and not a bunch of inspired Falcons.

Because, see, while the Bay was swooning from their production against the NFC’s best, we weren’t stooping to the level of our competition. We held the Bills to 40 yards on the ground, and that’s with Curtis Lofton notching all of one tackle.

Linebackers taking a back seat like that wasn’t a method that worked so well at the beginning of the season for us, but I’m into what’s smart and what works, and the coaches seem to be, too. Defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder is favoring packages with a defensive back up in the box for extra support more and more as time goes by, as evidenced by the tackle totals for Brent Grimes (nine) and Erik Coleman (seven) last week.

I could certainly see Williams having a decent game, somewhere along the lines of 80 yards, but he will be limited as long as the Bucs have this offensive line. On the other side, we may not have anything left in the tank, but I have a feeling these fellas will run on fumes if they have to.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Tampa Bay Rush Defense

Tampa’s ground D has at least been headed in the right direction since I was breaking down the first matchup: They have improved from their last-place spot.

Of course, they’re now only 30th in the league, so take that with a grain of salt. They just rely way too much on one position (linebacker) for this to be a reliable unit at all.

A couple of stats tell the story: First, the top three tacklers for the Bucs are their starting ‘backers. No, I do not expect a lineman to rack up the numbers, and no, I would not be so naive as to evaluate the line’s performance based solely upon their digits, but it’s sad that the top-tackling guy up front (Stylez White, 42) has just about exactly a third of team-leader Barrett Ruud’s 125.

Second, the team’s stoppage is dead last in runs greater than 20 yards, and that right there just about invalidates any of their efforts. After all, you can hold ’em to two or three for three plays per set of downs, but let up one big one, and well, it’s over.

On to our side of the ball, Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling went out and did just what I said they wouldn’t do last week (that’d be a productive two-back attack). That was against an underprepared and downright scared-looking Buffalo D, sure, but it was a confidence-boosting game nonetheless.

Obviously, if we can, we want to keep it on the ground and grind it out. There are too many ballhawks in the T.B. secondary for us to be relying on the pass (but you know I’ll get to that).

Now, I thought Harvey Dahl was going to be back on the line for last week and then was proved a bald-faced liar when Quinn Ojinnaka started; this week I know for a fact that Ojinnaka’s the one out there. This is a downside for us, as Quinn has been extremely penalty-prone to this point, and seems to infect Tyson Clabo with that same problem when he’s out there.

Of course, we got over the century mark running last week and won the game, so what am I complaining about?

 

Tampa Bay Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

On a team full of sorry units, the air game might just be the weakest for the Buccaneers. Of course, if you know who’s starting down there, that doesn’t even need a qualifier, but in case you’ve had your eyes closed for the past three months:

Josh Freeman’s not only a rookie, but one out of Kansas State. What, they play football there?

Still, I’ve never seen a guy do this poorly and keep his job. Not that Tampa has any other real options behind him, but just to give readers a taste, he’s got his team ranked 30th in interceptions, 29th in completion percentage, 29th in passer rating, 28th in first downs per game, and 28th in points to a contest.

Then again, when we saw him before, we had him playing like he did back in his college days: 20-of-29 for 250 yards, 2 TD and no INT.

So who shows up under center for them tomorrow, and just as important, who’s present in our defensive backfield?

Brent Grimes must be reading DDDB , because he’s picking up his play. I don’t think he ever expected to carry the responsibility he has this season, so really, he might just be ahead of the curve. Erik Coleman also looked more like the leader he’s supposed to be against the Bills.

Freeman just can’t be as hot as he was in the Dome, and if VanGorder goes with the containment style and box-stacking he showed last week, we won’t give up many big plays. That’s fine, because stopping Kellen Winslow after the catch is really the goal; what, you thought you were going to disrupt those hands?

But that brings me to another disadvantage for the Bay’s passing game: Winslow is the beginning and end. Note that his 72 receptions are almost double second-place receiver Antonio Bryant’s 37.

The cards are just stacked against poor Freeman.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

Matt Ryan is another week healthier, and considering his performance as he hobbled last week, I’m feeling OK about that.

The receivers have been our rocks all year long, so no worries there (except for Gonzo’s questionable rating, but I have faith). What does make me a little uncomfortable, though, is how the Buccaneer pass defense has gotten better since we played them.

Ronde Barber has the young boys around him playing up to his level, well enough that they’re all in a pack in terms of tackles and have 17 picks among them. Aqib Talib, for all his off-the-field problems and attitude questions, has emerged as a Asante Samuel-lite sort of player, and Sabby Piscitelli does a solid job of acting as enforcer.

Of course, we had Chris Redman throwing on basically every play in the Week 12 matchup, and that still resulted in no interceptions. Sure, his accuracy was piss-poor, but that’s more a symptom of his own problems, not what Tampa’s coverage was doing to him.

My thought process goes a little something like this: If we had Redman chucking the rock with reckless abandon last time, and still managed to not turn the ball over and eventually score enough to get the W, we’re going to be fine this trip with Ice dropping back instead.

I do not underestimate an 11th-ranked Bay pass D, but I focus instead on the facts that we won’t have to throw it nearly as much (41 times for Chris) and that when we do throw it, it’ll be a much more of a sure thing. If all goes well, the balance of running to gunning will even out a bit more, and Matty will only be relied upon entirely when it comes to the red zone.

 

Prediction: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17

Neither team is going to shoot the lights out. Neither will get an early jump. But I think the Dirty Birds will be in control from start to finish.

The key for me is that our guys know what this game means (for sure they do!) and that they know we’re the better team (here’s hoping they do). Playing away from home (last road game: win over the Jets in chilly NY) and Tampa’s mini-streak cannot be concerns.

Here’s hoping I’m writing a retrospective on what it means to have consecutive plus-.500 seasons later this week.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills Week 16 Preview

The 1-2 records in the past three weeks of the Atlanta Falcons and Buffalo Bills appear similar on the surface. But I don’t have to tell you that looks can be deceiving, now do I?

The Bills are averaging 13 points on a little over 120 yards passing and considerably less than 100 yards rushing per in that stretch. They’ve guaranteed themselves another losing season, despite the move for Terrell Owens in the summer and the promise showed by Trent Edwards in ’08.

The Falcons, on the other hand, put up a decent fight against the best team in the NFC and gutted out a tough road win at a decent New York Jets team over that span. They’ve kept their hopes for back-to-back winning seasons alive, and ignoring the debacle of a game that occurred when the Eagles came to town, they’ve looked a little like the team of the first four weeks of 2009.

In other words, one of these clubs is performing like their same old selves – disappointing and mediocre year after year. The other might just be ready to buck their trend, get the gorilla off their collective back, and legitimize themselves as an NFL team.

One of the marks of a true pro is being able to find something to play for when there apparently is nothing. Last Sunday the Falcons did it and took a big step towards finally becoming a legitimate NFL team.

Now can they do it again?

 

Buffalo Rush Offense vs Atlanta Rush Defense

Allowing just 99 yards (and zero points) on the ground to the best rush offense in the league was an important confidence-booster for our run-down (pun intended) defense last week. It’s got me thinking that we can handle what Buffalo’s 17th-ranked unit throws at us.

Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch continue to share carries in this backfield, though neither one has shown much throughout the campaign. In my personal opinion, both have a chance to be decent lead backs, but I think it’s safe to say at this point (with all of one triple-digit rushing game between them) that they are not making good on their potential here in ’09.

Of course, it’s far from just the backs’ fault; indeed, the real culprit is probably the ineffectiveness of the passing game, but more on that later. Anyways, in terms of the big let-down (read: coughing the rock up), Jackson and Lynch have fumbled just five times.

But that’s just about the only thing the Bills can take away from their offense at large this campaign. We, meanwhile, are coming off somewhat of a renaissance with Curtis Lofton and Mike Peterson playing again like they just came off summer workouts.

Between them, they had 23 tackles against the Jets, reminding me intensely of how we stopped the solid attacks of the Dolphins and Panthers in Weeks One and Two.

Tell you what: Those two give me 18 today, and I’ll be happy. Lofton’s injuries are certainly a concern, but with the line’s distraction of Jonathan Babineaux’s arrest seemingly already on the past (not saying it should or shouldn’t be…just that it is), other people providing the necessary compensation is likely.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense vs Buffalo Rush Defense

To put it nicely, Dirty Bird fans can look forward to next year when Michael Turner will hopefully be healthy again. I mean, with the amount of time he’s been out this year, when he returns healthy in ’10, it’ll be like his debut season with us all over again…right?

The point is, Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, for all their efforts, are not getting much of anything done. I’ve said it before and I’m afraid I must say it again: The run game is serving the role that the pass did last year, in that it appears with about a third of the frequency of the alternative in the hopes that it keeps defenses partially honest.

The Falcons face a D not nearly as fearsome as New York’s, but still with its threats. Sure, there’s a big discrepancy between the linebacking corps with Bart Scott and David Harris clearly outclassing Scott Posluszny and Keith Ellison, but what Buffalo packs the box better than the Jets. Bryan Scott might be out, but George Wilson is way better than just a “backup” and might just rank as the most underrated safety in the league right now.

In terms of playcalling, I rescind my remarks encouraging creativity. Snell going up the middle or taking a short pass is way better than trying to run a reverse, and I realize that now. Norwood is slower coming off his injuries, so I think simple, low-risk plays suit him better for the moment anyway.

Some good news for us is that the line is back at full health. They need to not underestimate Kyle Williams and Aaron Schobel on Buffalo’s line, as both can break through (they have eight and six tackles for loss, respectively).

 

Buffalo Pass Offense vs Atlanta Pass Defense

Well, at least we’ll (hopefully) get to see something new today: Brian Brohm in extended NFL action. Sure beats the heck out of more of former Bengals benchwarmer Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Regardless of our opponent’s offensive leader, though, my focus is on poor Trent Edwards. It’s too soon (and to cruel) to assume he’ll suffer the same fate as the last talented-but-unfortunate Bills quarterback, J.P. Losman; after all, this is just like a delayed sophomore slump, and he couldn’t do anything about his ankle.

Still, this was supposed to be his year, with T.O. complementing favorite target Lee Evans in a wide-open vertical passing game. Alas, the football gods are a mean bunch.

For once, I’m not going to moan about our cornerbacks’ chances to match up; we ought to just let ’em beat us, considering Buffalo is 29th in the L in pass plays over 20 yards. You want to talk about an inability to capitalize on a roster’s strengths?

Overall, the aerial assault of our foes ranks 30th, and their slingers have notched 14 TD to 17 interceptions. And beyond that, they’re tied in second for sacks allowed (not that we particularly like getting after the QB, but it’s something).

To be fair, there was a fair amount of shakeup on the line this offseason. Anytime a team has Jason Peters leave and must replace two other spots (LG and C) with rookies and free agents, it’s tough.

But weren’t all the new fellas they brought in (Andy Levitre, Geoff Hangartner, Richie Incognito, etc.) supposed to be significant upgrades?

Maybe the curse of the Buffalo signalcaller is spreading…

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Buffalo Pass Defense

Some people I know couldn’t stop talking about how shaky Matt Ryan’s mechanics looked last week, about how his turf toe injury was clearly affecting his follow through and how he moved backwards and laterally.

What I couldn’t shake was that he was out there, despite his aches and pains, leading us to a halfway tolerable performance. The confidence he brings every time he takes the field really does make a difference.

Yep, his number really did look like those of a man playing on the road against the top pass defense in the league, but in the end, he came through. He was mentally on when it counted, though perhaps a little bit quicker to give up on a play (or entire drive) due to his decreased stamina.

At home against the third-ranked pass defense, I like our chances. Ryan’s been in practice all week (as compared to once last week), and though he’s been limited, that’s a week more to heal and get used to the game again. He won’t face anywhere near as much pressure, as once again, these aren’t the Jets linebackers we’re talking about.

Schobel comes off the edge pretty nasty, but the lack of other pressure points produced along the line by his teammates mean he’s easy to key in on (and he’s got “just” seven sacks to his name this year).

Besides that, Tony Gonzalez looks to have a heyday as he faces no one over 6’1″, and Posluszny can’t hope to keep up with him all game long while playing defensive coordinator on the field.

It’s that mid-range passing game that’ll be key; we don’t want a hurt Matty Ice throwing into a secondary that has 26 picks (nine from one young Mr. Jairus Byrd) to 11 touchdowns. Besides, Buffalo just doesn’t allow the long pass: They’re fourth in plays over 20 yards allowed.

 

Prediction : Falcons 28, Bills 14

“The NFL is a league of parity.”

“Everything can change week to week.”

“On any given Sunday…”

All so, so true. But I’ll put my money on an Atlanta team that dug deep a week ago in cold confines, as long as they aren’t looking ahead to a surprisingly formidable road test in Week 17.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 14, Falcons @ Jets

I was really quite proud of myself. I didn’t get angry; I didn’t throw a remote, kick a table, or even punch a pillow. I took the Falcons’ loss to the Saints with, dare I say it, dignity .

Not saying our performance was anything special; a lot of teams have made it close with Nawlins, and such squeakers should be expected in the midst of a 13-game win streak (and especially if that win streak is occurring in the NFL). Gotta ask, though: Who expected us to move the ball at all without Michael Turner and Matt Ryan?

Anyway, here’s to me swallowing my pride for another Sunday and understanding that there are things in life other than the Falcons ending the drought and earning a second consecutive winning season. Because, see, I’m not holding out hope as we travel (we’re 1-5 on the road this year) to a defensive powerhouse (you saw how we did against the Eagles, right?).

Besides, the Jets are on a three-game win streak, making them the sizzle to our…”room temperature?”

Hey, I’m tryin’ here.

 

New York Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

I wonder, what will the Jets will try against us? They’re only the No. 1 rushing team in the league, fifth in rush touchdowns, and third in first downs on the ground.

Not like they’ve got anything to be scared about. The Atlanta stuffage has steady slipped since I bragged about the D-line way back when, and we’re fresh off putting everything we had into last week’s game…only to still give up nearly 100.

The only reservation I’d have about NYJ’s running attack is how much it relies on Thomas Jones. He’s making a few people eat words for doubting his ability to produce after turning 30, but should he go down, there’s really little behind him.

Sound familiar, ATLiens?

After Leon Washington went down in October, Shonn Greene was charged with the change-of-pace duties. He’s only just now catching on, as before he’d been wildly inconsistent.

Wait, that rings a bell, too.

But besides the backs, let’s give a little credit to this line. Yeah, that Sporting News cover a couple summers ago was premature, but it was also prophetic. Alan Faneca’s seemingly whipped them into shape and has D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Damien Woody finally playing to their potential.

Staring them down from our side of the trenches are those same folks I keep badmouthing, at least until Jonathan Babineaux gets convicted. And that wasn’t at all sarcastic; it was more melancholy than anything.

For what it’s worth (and that’s not much at all), Jamaal Anderson has made this into his best season yet by getting the occasional stop at the line.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. New York Rush Defense

You could stick the domes of Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling on the same body, making one of those so-called “two-headed monster” rushers, but it wouldn’t really help. They just don’t amount to a lead back together, and that’s not a knock on them, but a blatantly obvious conclusion to draw from the past few weeks.

With them taking the handoffs, it’s as though our offense is flip-flopped. Last year, we ran, ran, and ran some more, occasionally tossing the pigskin to keep the opposition honest. Now, the ground game is sprinkled in only sparingly, and when we need a first down, you better believe we’re going to the air.

So just how will our replacements fare against a run defense that, while not the pride of its team, still is sharp enough to have not let up one play of more than 35 yards?

If you’re a Falcons fan, you might wanna get like me and just take a deep breath.

As you might expect, Rex Ryan has his inside linebackers absolutely smashing some mouths: David Harris and Bart Scott have 187 tackles between them. Beyond that, the line (featuring breakout Marques Douglas) is clearly doing their job pretty well if there have been so few game-breaking rushes against this club.

For us, it’s no longer a matter of receivers sucking it up and making the blocks—they’re doing that, but for naught, as Snell and Wood simply can’t make it that far out. Seems to me that doubt has not just crept into their minds, but it has taken up permanent residence.

Oh, and play calling can’t solve it either, though I thought so at one point. Mixing it up has largely failed. Remember that reverse we tried to run with Eric Weems in the fourth quarter on Sunday?

 

New York Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

No reason to get excited about being on equal footing, backup quarterback v. backup quarterback: As of this writing, Mark Sanchez is more likely to go than not.

And though at the beginning of the season I would have given you the big eye-roll regarding his status, it’s become apparent that the team’s success has a lot to do with his.

That is…

How would one serve crow, if one were to eat it? Would you fry it, or bake it, or put it on…

OK, fine, Sanchez is looking good, and might just be a pro-starter. He actually has reminded me of Ryan as a rookie at times, as he plays well beyond his years, maintaining poise no matter who’s coming at him.

His numbers aren’t stellar and the Jets are near the cellar in terms of pass yards per game, but what does that matter when he’s playing smart with the ball and the running game is working as well as it is?

His targets are many, though Jerricho Cotchery takes the cake as the one to worry about with his all-around game. Braylon Edwards is panning out a lot better than I thought he would, and all of a sudden Danny Woodhead is making some waves from deep down.

Toss in Dustin Keller and you see where I’m going with this. Dirty Birds, you can only do your best.

What I hated most about our performance against the New Orleans receiving corps was how our defensive backs let Drew Brees spread the ball around like warm butter. Seven, count ’em seven, different guys got over 30 yards receiving.

I’m sure Sanchez would like nothing more than to complete a pass no matter who he chucks it to, just as Brees did last week. If we could isolate one man and make him beat us, that’d be one thing. But it’s a lost cause when only Brent Grimes can play man-to-man and only Chris Houston has any sort of field vision.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering, that O-line I was talking about can block, too. Jets quarterbacks go down only two times per game this year.

Not like we can get after anyone!

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. New York Pass Defense

To only throw one pick against the Saints is actually pretty good, considering they average almost two per game.

And to throw for more yards than Drew Brees in the same game is really quite nice, seeing as how he leads the league in that category.

Chris Redman is no stud, but he’s getting the job done better than our second- and third-string running backs. Sure, he’s got a wealth of great receivers around him while Jason and Jerious have a banged-up line to block for them, but there’s something to be said for putting oneself on the line for three straight weeks (including one against the Eagles!) and not looking like a total buffoon.

Now for the real test of doofus-ness: How you lookin’ against the best pass defense around?

All of seven balls have flown into the end zone for scores against these Jets, and this team’s average yardage per completed pass against is the only in the league below six. No, they don’t get after picks as often as, say, our last foes, but who needs turnovers when you can waste clock and force a punt?

The roles are pretty defined in the N.Y. defensive backfield: You’ve got your hitters in Darrelle Revis and Jim Leonhard and your hawk in Lito Sheppard. As a Falcons fan, I’ve got to envy the kind of precision with which the unit operates.

I do like that Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White tower over Leonhard, but that’s not going to mean a whole lot if Harris or Shaun Ellis are getting after the darn-near stationary Redman. New York doesn’t rack up the sacks big-time, but both of those fellows have the sort of athleticism that lets them surprise an O-line.

There could be a lot of rushed, low throws, as it seems there always are when “Rojohombre” is involved.

 

Prediction: Jets 27, Falcons 21

It won’t be a blow-out, but it won’t come down to a final possession the way our most recent matchups with Tampa and New Orleans did. The Jets are not a vastly superior team to the Falcons, but they’re clearly clicking better than our banged-up bunch is at this point.

Were the Atlanta team that started the season still out there, I wouldn’t hesitate to predict a win, as I did when I first analyzed this game so long ago.

Just goes to show that paper does not translate to field and that a lot can happen in the course of a football season.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 14, Falcons v. Saints

What have the Atlanta Falcons done since their much-ballyhooed Monday Night matchup with the tops-in-the-NFC New Orleans Saints?

Why, they’ve eked out wins against sub-par teams (the Skins and Bucs) and dropped two tremendously important contests against Wild Card contenders (the Giants and Eagles). The team’s dug themselves a postseason hole that more or less requires them to win out.

And what have dem Saints done since then?

Oh, only managed to stay undefeated by bashing the Pats to the ground and snagging a victory from the jaws of defeat on the road in Washington. They’ve clinched the NFC South and are darn close to getting home-field up to the Super Bowl.

So it’s understandable if the Falcs’ faithful are a little down. As of this writing, offensive stars Matt Ryan and Michael Turner are both questionable, and that tells one a lot about just how they’ll play if they do get on the field.

A contest uglier than last week’s debacle against Philly would be hard to imagine and possibly even more difficult to realize, and for that reason, the final of this Sunday’s contest might not reflect the actual discrepancy between these two clubs.

It’s a pretty sure thing at this point that a healthy Saints team has the edge over a Chris Redman-Jason Snelling Dirty Bird bunch.

 

New Orleans Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

We saw some decent stoppage from our guys up front last week, which was very convenient, considering how run-down the linebackers must be feeling at this point. Jonathan Babineaux and Jamaal Anderson show up just often enough that I don’t forget the guys’ names.

Of course, the real question is: Were they around the last time we played the Saints? Not so much. Pierre Thomas got 91 on the ground, Mike Bell 49, and Reggie Bush didn’t even need to provide his change-of-pace but twice. The Falcons took their steady doses of the main two backs like well-behaved children.

You would think the team with Drew Brees at quarterback would take it a little easier on you up front, but that is not the case with the now fifth-in-rushing Nawlins. Their execution-related stats are even better: Take a look at their league-leading 18 TD and tied-for-third-least four fumbles.

There was a time when I was very confident in Atlanta’s ability to stuff; Mike Peterson and Curits Lofton were playing with unmatched field vision and moved to meet ball-carriers at the line with the speed of a top-tier cornerback. And while they continue to be valuable, they’re showing the effects of overuse in the ugliest ways.

Against a fine-tuned, well-oiled, insert-superlative-here N.O. offense, we can’t afford to be out of position as much. The guys are playing tired, and some (Peterson and Lofton) have a reason to be doing so, while others seem to have their minds on other things or nothing at all.

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems like our ground D has already packed it in.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. New Orleans Rush Defense

Yes, on that distant Monday evening we did end up with more rush yards than N.O., but I’ll go ahead and guarantee that won’t be the case, even though the venue is now our (once) well-defended Dome. With at best a hobbled Michael Turner, we simply will not be playing the same game.

The nothing-special Saints run defense is nonetheless good enough. They might be ranked 20th (compare that with the Eagles now sitting pretty at spot No. 7), but they’re still getting the all-around game from their LBs that makes up for shortcomings along the line. Is it that Jonathan Vilma knows his team has a shot that he’s playing with the endurance of a marathon runner?

Can’t be sure, but it must be a touch easier when you’re team’s 12-0, plus you’ve got Roman Harper behind you.

Last week my Dirty Birds tried just about every rush variation with both healthy backs, and nothing really worked. Here I was preaching for Norwood to get some up-the-middle, and then we went for that a few times, nothing doing.

It didn’t help to have Harvey Dahl out. He’s no master puller or anything, but he does all the stuff you don’t see (and don’t wanna see) along the line. Poor ole Quinn Ojinnaka just gets swallowed in his stead.

In terms of effective playcalls, what more can I ask for if we already threw the proverbial kitchen sink last week? I guess a few more two-back sets wouldn’t hurt, maybe with Snelling blocking for Norwood, but overall, if we improve upon our 2.8 per carry from last week, it’ll be due to a single breakout run rather than real extra production.

Even then, we’ll probably only notch around, oh say, 3.0 per.

 

New Orleans Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

“Ah, well, there goes my smile.”

Like I had one on my face anyway. A hundred bucks to whoever tells me where that line comes from (check’s in the mail).

First, to lay the stats bare, Brees has the best passer rating in the land, the most TD in the land, and has his team No. 3 in the league in yards through the air. And last time he met us, he went a dandy 25-for-33 and hovered right around his rating average.

Ask yourself this if you’re still a little muddy on just where Drew stands among today’s QBs: Where did Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Devery Henderson come from? Have they only become so good since Drew started slinging it this way?

Of course, the real question is, do those answers even matter? Brees spreads the ball like butter to those fellas, plus some tight end considered half-decent, Jeremy Shockey. Don’t care where each guy comes from or what round he was drafted, but the individuals are excellent, and then the whole is a heckuva lot more than the sum of the parts.

Plain and simple, the New Orleans aerial attack is something to envy.

Now watch me turn green.

…

Oh, what, you were expecting me to say the same old thing again about our secondary?

Not gonna happen. Go do your DDDB homework .

…

OK, fine, here’s one tidbit:

Sure, Thomas DeCoud picked Brees off early back in October, but then he pulled his usual disappearing act and more or less wasn’t seen for the rest of the game.

You think somebody else is going to suddenly step forth? Even leader Erik Coleman is quiet these days.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. New Orleans Pass Defense

I can admit when I’m wrong: I was in error when I said last week that Redman can handle the regular playcalls, the stuff that Matt Ryan normally works with.

Yeah, never mind that. Chris tries his damnedest, but he is no NFL starter. Last week, he turned the “quick release” and “laser pass” I lauded him for into “rushed attempts” and “low balls.” No offense to the guy whatsoever, but he looks like a college signal caller thrown into the pros when he gets out there.

He’ll just have a whale of a time with the hyperactive Nawlins secondary, that same one that leads the league in picks and features two of the best defensive back tacklers around in Roman Harper and Darren Sharper.

But back to that Eagles game; Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez followed my orders and played their same stellar games regardless of who was chuckin’ the thing to them. And boy, was it nowhere close to enough to make us a competent offense; there’s some more words for me to eat.

Having the O-line back and fully healthy could mean some more time in the pocket for Red, but will he realize that he doesn’t need to hurry, or will he go ahead and do it since he’s so used to it? Perhaps it’s just because Ryan is calm to a fault, but Chris looks scared even when he’s not holding the ball.

As a parting shot, I’ll go back to these two teams’ first meeting. Note that Matty was horribly inaccurate (19-of-42) and gave the rock away like week-old pizza; you think Redman’s going to look better?

 

Prediction : Saints 37, Falcons 14

It’s too much to ask for us to pull some sort of miraculous upset.

And you’re crazy if you want me to get my hopes up for this sucker.

If you’ve noticed a certain jadedness in me since the Giants loss, how very perceptive of you. Fact of the matter is, we started hot because the offense was clicking and everyone knew we belonged among the top NFC teams.

We cooled off when the leaders went down and the remaining group convinced themselves they just weren’t good enough to hang on while the fearless recovered.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 13, Falcons vs. Eagles

This past summer, we “enjoyed” the lively debate over whether or not Michael Vick could be an effective NFL player after being released from prison and then reinstated by the NFL.

Then there was that “fascinating” speculation about where he would land and the subsequent “insightful” analysis of how he would mesh with the Philadelphia Eagles when he finally inked a contract.

It became nauseating, but I was still excited about the prospect of him visiting the place where he began his career on Dec. 6 for a matchup with my club. Even gave him a shout-out in an early DDDB.

Much respect to Mike, but I couldn’t care less about his homecoming now.

An NFC Wild Card—and more importantly, the Falcons’ best shot at stringing two winning seasons back-to-back—is on the line, and Vick, his one pass attempt, and 1.6 rush attempts per game aren’t going to have any impact on the outcome.

Instead, my eyes are focused on some small names that will have a big impact on Sunday: LeSean McCoy, Chris Redman, and Jason Snelling. All three are to be forced into extensive action because of injuries to starters, and whoever can step up to the proverbial plate and deliver a pro performance has the potential to decide the game.

Maybe someday I’ll be able to enjoy a relaxing Sunday afternoon, but with a Philly win all but dooming us and a Falcons win pulling us into a three-way tie for the final NFC playoff spot, this game isn’t really one to nap through.

 

Philadelphia Rush Offense vs. Atlanta Rush Defense

First, I should just wish Brian Westbrook the best as concussions are nasty sons-of-guns that can come back to haunt a player. I’ve always loved the guy’s style and penchant for production, and whether or not it was time to start fazing him out, dude shouldn’t have to end it this way.

Of course, it works out OK for the Dirty Birds, because his injury means we can take it easy against the run, right? Besides, we held those mighty Buccaneers of Tampa Bay to just 73 rushing yards last week, we’re stout enough…

Unless we’re talking reality, in which case McCoy must be accounted for (and the fact that the Bucs suck must be recognized). We may have faced some great ground games, but we haven’t seen someone with this elusiveness and breakaway speed.

I remember at one point I made the assertion in a preview that Atlanta performs better against a single-back attack, but I doubt my own wisdom in a special way these days. The numbers say we’re No. 23 in the league in rush defense, but watching a game will tell you what you need to know: Guys are taking plays off, whether intentionally or not.

The fact that LeSean has yet to have a 100-yard rushing game this season doesn’t really make me any more comfortable, either. That’s just asking for a guy to go off, and McCoy is the type who is entirely capable.

And to boot, he protects the rock like few others: The Eagles as a whole have just four fumbles on the season, good for fourth fewest.

What will help me sleep at night?

For once, I’m not going to say “active play from the linebackers.” Instead, I’m going to request a stacking of the box, and bringing either Erik Coleman or Thomas DeCoud on any and all obvious running situations. Coleman in particularly will make plays on runners, as his best-on-the-defense field vision allows him to get in nigh-perfect positioning.

It’s a concession I’m willing to take because I’ve kind of already conceded that other part of the defensive backfield. But you now my style, wait for that subheader…

 

Atlanta Rush Offense vs. Philadelphia Rush Defense

Maybe we learned something last week when we put Michael Turner in and got a re-injured ankle in return. Was it worth the risk and is it again? And just how much do we expect to get from him in the stretch?

It’s imperative to continue giving Snelling and Jerious Norwood the majority of the carries, not just to preserve Burner for the remaining games against the Saints and Bucs, but also to massage our second- and third-stringers into the real offense a little bit more.

The packages seem too simplified when Michael’s out, and there’s really no reason for that. I for one think the blocking schemes should be the same for Jason and Turner, and ‘Wood ought to see more variety in his lines of attack as well. I swear, one more of those sideline squirts, and I’ll go crazy—that’s just not utilizing the man!

(As an aside: I know some would argue Jerious proved he couldn’t be a multi-purpose runner in ’07, but that doesn’t mean he can run reverses and only reverses. The one time this season I can remember him getting a traditional middle run, he picked up at least eight.)

Some creativity will be necessary against a Philly ground defense that has silently crept up to eighth in the league in yards allowed. Considering end Trent Cole (that’s right, a lineman) has the third-most tackles on the team, I’d say they’re pretty decent at stopping things at the point of origin.

Besides that, Akeem Jordan has come out of relatively nowhere to look like a total beast; what is this “James Madison,” a type of beer?

To me, all the more reason to keep the complexity of our offense at its normal level and to mix things the hell up. One can’t expect 70 from either of our fellas, but 100 combined would be a starting point.

 

Philadelphia Pass Offense vs. Atlanta Pass Defense

The phrase “Atlanta Pass Defense” makes me laugh so hard. Josh Freeman given 250 yards, two TD, and a 118.5 passer rating?

Ha! Attaboy!

There’s just no way we can keep a guy on both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin; throw Brent Celek into the mix (possibly; he’s rated questionable at the moment), and we’ve got a recipe for disaster. That’s why I was speaking of “concessions” earlier; we ought to just realize we can’t deal with their combination of speed and sure hands.

Instead, how about we try something new: generating a pass rush. Like I said, put Coleman in the box to either rush or be better prepared for a run, and just run like there’s no tomorrow to try to make a play on the ball if it goes deep. Who knows, maybe we can actually put some pressure on Donovan McNabb.

Why all the optimism? It’s not a glaring stat, but the Eagles have allowed the 10th-most sacks in the league. Also, and this is admittedly just a hunch/feeling/burning desire, but after so many weeks of ineffectiveness in getting after the quarterback, don’t our guys have some pent-up aggression?

Or maybe Philly’s line won’t be expecting the rush, because we’ve been so bad to this point. Or maybe the luxury of not having to deal with a bruiser like Westbrook will have us looking for more satisfying contact. Or maybe John Abraham will find a time machine.

The bald truth is that allowing Tampa’s offense to outplay ours for the majority of the ballgame was inexcusable, and we might as well make a big change.

Anyways, I’d rather see some of the offensive fireworks that this shift would leave us vulnerable to than the slow, inexorable march towards failure that quite nearly was Week 12.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense vs. Philadelphia Pass Defense

When I first laid out my now-all-too-familiar preview article format, this section came fourth because it was kind of like dessert. Save the best for last, you know?

It’s lost the large part of its sweetness with Matt Ryan having to take the week off and Philly’s pass defense having some gaudy numbers (wait for ’em…), but I’ve never been a cookies-and-cake-and-ice cream man, anyway.

As I was saying earlier this week, the differences in Chris Redman’s mechanics can be beneficial to a team struggling with interceptions, and that combined with the show of concentration and hand strength of Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White late against the Bucs has me feeling…well, uneasy.

I mean, the Eagles are tied for the third-most interceptions in the league with 18. Still, it could be worse.

Honestly, considering two factors, Redman getting a chance to let it fly will likely be our bigger problem. First, there’s the number 31 staring us down, Iladelph’s sack total, good for sixth in the league. Then there are the nebulous injuries on our offensive line, to Harvey Dahl and (worse) Sam Baker.

Cole is a monster in this regard, and Juqua Parker isn’t too bad opposite him. The bookends have 14.5 sacks alone.

Ice isn’t too mobile, but Redman might be slower, so don’t count on him to evade much. The bread and butter needs to be quick, low lasers to Gonzo; the same dinks that worked so well on our final drive against TB. This is our best chance at avoiding the two things the Eagles unfortunately do so well (picking the ball off and knocking the quarterback down).

Asante Samuel is the big name in the Eagles’ defensive backfield, but his ‘mates Sheldon Brown, Sean Jones, and Quintin Mikell are all great tacklers. Mikell leads the team, for goodness’ sake, despite being just 5’10”, 205.

But there it is again: The indicator to go to Gonzo. He’ll see your 5’10” and raise you six inches.

 

Prediction: Eagles 27, Falcons 17

It would be in our interest to keep this one a low-scoring affair, as that’s how we pulled off last week’s squeaker. The Bucs are a totally different team than the Eagles though, of course, and keep in mind it’s probably Philly who will be dictating the tempo in this one.

Therefore, converting on the scoring opportunities we get would really be nice. Getting the ball in enemy territory, as I believe we did three times in the fourth last Sunday, means you should score at least some points. Which brings me to a request…

I would ask even Eagles fans to cross their fingers for us in the kicking game. Please, football gods, let us have solved our field goal problem with the replacement of Jason Elam with Matt Bryant!

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Liking Bryant-For-Elam, Tolerating Redman-For-Ryan

When it comes down to it, the Atlanta Falcons’ starter switches at two of the three most important offensive positions were inevitable and unavoidable.

A team can simply not stick with a kicker who misses half of his attempts between 30 and 39 yards and has a penchant for choking under pressure. In fact, those two attributes would be the exact opposite of what a club would desire.

Also, a team can simply not expect their star quarterback to remain healthy indefinitely. Indeed, considering the position comes with the honor of being the most hunted player on the field, a perpetually ready-to-go QB would be the exact opposite of a realistic demand.

The Dirty Birds are doing their best to get (or at least look) prepared for Sunday’s critical battle with the Eagles, despite the turnover.

They picked up Brandon Coutu last week to hopefully push incumbent PK Jason Elam a bit (exciting this former Bulldog to no end), and then acted swiftly when the latter didn’t respond in the Tampa game by signing Matt Bryant on Dec. 1.

And when Matt Ryan went down with a turf toe injury, the team looked immediately to 2007 starter-turned-trusty backup Chris Redman with no hesitation. He played well enough to eke out a win over the Bucs.

So what should the viewer expect from this slightly-new-look bunch?

 

Place Kicker: It’s All Smiles and Rainbows

Mr. Elam, I am proud to say you graduated from my high school (word to the ‘Wood…Brookwood!) and that you returned to the hometown team after years in the foreign countries known as Hawaii and Denver. But I am perhaps more proud to say this:

You (whether by choice or not) have stepped down once your effectiveness has ceased. These missed field goals this year, they caused me such pain.

The whiff in Week One was forgivable, if a head-scratcher: How could such a reliable vet manage that? , I wondered. You “answered” me a few weeks later with the performance against New Orleans, and then proceeded to dig your own grave in Weeks 10 through 12.

I really would rather not go into analyzing whether or not the Falcons might have pulled out the Carolina and Giants games—for me, the pain is still too near—but it was pretty obvious that Elam wasn’t performing at the level expected of a pro booter. It was probably due after the Panthers bout, but now Atlanta has finally come around to replacing him.

The man to step into the spotlight is the aforementioned Bryant, who played in NFL Europa and then for those same Buccaneers for four years (thanks for the info, Falcoholic). He’s had solid mid-range accuracy in the past, but that should be true of all kickers.

Cough cough , Elam.

I look forward to breathing easy when we get within 30 yards. At least on his first kick, that is.

Clean slate, Matt, clean slate.

 

Quarterback: Just Pretend It’s the Preseason, Chris

This past Sunday is just that—past. It turned out a win, so in my mind, there’s no need to go into the “ifs” surrounding what might have happened had Matty Ice not got hurt, had Redman not had the luxury of throwing to Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White, etc.

Instead, let us look forward to what having Redman on the field means for the next contest, one of even greater import. After all, a win here pulls us into, at worst, a three-way tie with Philly and N.Y., and we have the easiest remaining schedule of the three.

Obviously, offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is going to be a bit more reserved with the playcalling considering the franchise arm will be on the sideline, but he won’t forget that half of the magical hookup—meaning, Gonzo and Rod—are doing just fine. There’s no need to overcompensate with the run, especially considering the turmoil at tailback.

Simplification of the pass game is barely necessary, either. What viewers saw in the final Falcons drive against the Bucs can happen against the Eagles, if the team feels the pressure of this semi-play-in and Tony G and White down lose that super hand strength.

Oh wait, that second thing will never happen.

Chris has the accuracy to place the ball, and note that though his attempts were numerous this past week (41), he threw a rather low number of interceptions (0). Specifically, a quick release and low, short passes served him well, even if catches had to be made on around hip-level.

It’ll be nice to have someone not prone to giving the ball up, even if he has much less penchant for the big play or high completion percentage. Of course, with Asante Samuel in the defensive backfield, no one is safe…

But now I’m just teasing the game preview. Look for it in the next DDDB !

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 12, Falcons v. Bucs

There are a few reasons that my team should win this game.

• We’re coming home—thank goodness—to the Dome, where we’re unbeaten this year.
• We played a decent game last week, showing a good amount of moxie, despite the end result.
• And, of course, we’re facing friggin’ Tampa Bay.

Shortly before starting this article, I came to the realization that it might be easiest to just analyze the one game the Bucs have won—Week Nine, at home against Green Bay—and then show how the Falcons could not possibly come up short in the ways the Pack did.

But that’d be too easy, and the few DDDB readers out there know my personality by this time: total perfectionist. So I’ll break it down as I normally do, but let me remind you all to keep the comparison with the TB-GB game in mind this afternoon.

Because, in all honesty, that is the only game in which the Bucs did enough things right to matter at all.

 

Tampa Bay Rush Offense v. Atlanta Rush Defense

There can be just one reason a guy like Cadillac Williams has yet to top 100 yards in a single game this season, and that’s a piss-poor line. I have watched him since the very beginning of his Auburn days, and this is a feature NFL back, I guarantee you.

Besides that, the acquisition of Derrick Ward should mean more here. But no, these two studs combined have not clocked 700 yards on the campaign, making me even more certain where to point the finger.

Looking at these guys Tampa puts in the trenches, it’s neither inexperience nor old age that is holding them back. It’s clearly either playcalling or straight-up ability, as all have played between three and seven years in the league.

This just isn’t a bunch that can create holes or pull a back through, and they struggle with stopping penetration on runs, too. Not that we have guys who make too many tackles behind the line these days (looking at you, Jamaal Anderson), but after we held the Giants to 88 on the ground last week at their place, I ask anyone to tell me that the Falcons can’t make a tackle within five yards of the handoff against this bunch.

The Bucs are, in general, an awful offense, ranked 29th overall in the league. More on the air game in a sec, but keep in mind that this is actually the better half of their production, and it’s still barely getting to the century mark per game (100.9 yards average).

A Sunday ago, we Atlantans enjoyed a return to form for both Curtis Lofton and Mike Peterson, our real defensive keys (sorry, John Abraham). It was encouraging, especially on the road. They could only get in trouble today if they are looking ahead too much at the Eagles matchup in a week.

 

Atlanta Rush Offense v. Tampa Bay Rush Defense

A completely healthy Falcons team (I know, such a thing is hard to imagine) would be licking their chops at the prospect of facing this last-ranked rush defense. As is, I’d say we’re still probably looking forward to ramming it down the Bucs’ throats, considering how Jason Snelling looked last week against a stalwart N.Y. front.

The latest on Michael Turner is that he’s expected to play, but that doesn’t mean a whole lot to me, personally. I have to expect that a guy still rated “questionable” is at best at 75 percent, so I’d rather keep our third-stringer out there than risk the main man.

Of course, Jerious Norwood is also apparently feeling much better, and I’m not going to pretend that having three bodies is worse than the one we did last week. Throw in that that one had never before started a game, and the ground should serve us well.

Few things would please me more than for us to just eat up clock, giving our defense a veritable bye week.

We won’t be facing much pressure; the Bucs rely far too much on Barrett Ruud (86 tackles to second-place-on-the-team Sabby Piscitelli’s 59). The fact that the man’s only at “probable” certainly doesn’t help the case, either.

Tampa has forced just four fumbles and given up 12 rushing TD, 14 runs of 20 or more yards, and 84 first downs on the ground. Their 168.9 yards allowed per game means they’re granting almost 100 yards more than league-leader Pittsburgh, and the 4.9-per-attempt is tied for the worst in the L.

Stoppage is just an ugly topic down by the Bay.

 

Tampa Bay Pass Offense v. Atlanta Pass Defense

One can at least say this for the Bucs’ air game: Things are more interesting since the rookie took over.

Meanwhile, one can at least say this for the Falcons’ air defense: Things are always interesting.

Whether or not you think Josh Freeman is “ever going to succeed at the next level,” he’s starting there right now. He’s been no rookie sensation like a certain someone I know and love, but consider that he’ll take over the Tampa lead for passing yards this week after getting serious burn in just four games, and I’m not ready to pass a verdict yet.

His ratio (five TD to five INT) is far from great, but he’s shown better mobility than the guy on the roster who’s got a better one (Byron Leftwich with four-to-three). It’s that mobility that’s the key to why he’s been getting the nod, after all, and it’s what’s led him to fourth in rushing yards on the club and a 6.9-per average when he scrambles.

I’ve quit pretending that Atlanta can produce a consistent pass rush, as Abe is at least playing like he’s past his prime (if he isn’t) and Kroy Biermann can’t be put in on every down for the liability he presents in the ground game. But I tell you what, I’ll take my chances with Freeman’s 51-percent completion rate.

Dude has questionable accuracy even when not pressured.

It won’t help that both Antonio Bryant and Kellen Winslow are a little shook up. Then again, against a secondary that let Eli Manning throw for over 380 yards last week (and more telling, let four different guys rack up more than 60 yards receiving, including Mario Manningham’s 126), you don’t really need health.

Just a pulse might be enough against the inconsistent Brent Grimes. I beg you, pray tell: How do you look so good one second only to suck the next?

Overall, you know I’m giving us the edge, though. Not even we can make a 61.1 passer rating across the Buccaneer QB corps look elite.

 

Atlanta Pass Offense v. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

At least you didn’t throw a pick last week, Matty Ice. I might really have cried had you managed that. Please let this be a sign of good things to come.

Though, of course, as I say that, it’s time to dig back up something I mentioned at the outset – the Tampa-Green Bay game. It was in that contest that the strength of the Bay secondary came out, and Aaron Rodgers threw three picks. Returns of 35 or more yards (including one for six) did the Packers in.

And so, all the more important to keep the ball on the ground. Aqib Talib and Tanard Jackson will be all too happy to wrestle us from the warm embrace of victory.

Still, don’t be fooled by the unit’s 13th-overall rating, or at least not entirely. See a group that’s given up the third-most passing TD in the league and allows the fourth-most yards per pass attempt for what they really are: prone to the big play.

The occasional big play is all we’ll need as long as the ground game does what it should be able to do. Now you see why I was stressing the run attack.

I was hoping for more Tony Gonzalez last week, and I got it; maybe they’ll listen again as I request that he gets a break here. We’ll need Roddy White down the sideline for the now-and-again bomb to keep the Buc defense honest, but Gonzo should take a breather while the mid-range game is handled by the tailbacks.

Good for us that four of our last six are at home, where Ryan seems not just comfortable, but All-Pro. How he got so harried against the Panthers a fortnight ago I’m trying not to think about; instead, I’m picturing a confidence-boosting crushing of Tampa’s defensive backfield.

 

Prediction : Falcons 34, Buccaneers 13

The Giants game was a heartbreaker for us. I won’t get into how we could have won had Jason Elam been a bit more accurate, though I will thank administration for exploring Brandon Coutu as an option.

We shouldn’t be worried, especially now that we’re back in friendly confines, but it’s important to keep in mind that our destiny is “in our hands.” Winning out is a long shot, but getting five of the remaining six would certainly help.

Tripping over Tampa, either today or in a few weeks, would spell certain doom. We must use this as a week to get our minds right and learn as much as possible about the Bucs so that we can earn a rare road win in late December.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: For Matt Ryan, What’s Luck Got To Do with Picks?

If you feel the need to put this article’s title to the tune of a certain Tina Turner song, I’ll look the other way. You think I didn’t think of that as I was coming up with it?

In all seriousness, a shout-out goes to Tim, a DDDB regular who contributed to the idea for this article. Let it be known: Your topic suggestions are welcome, readers!

But on to the analysis, which I’ll kick off with some digits. Specifically, a few telling ratios:

• Week Five: 2-to-1
• Week Six: 2-to-2
• Week Seven: 2-to-2
• Week Eight: 1-to-3
• Week Nine: 1-to-1
• Week Ten: 1-to-2

And if you guessed “Matt Ryan’s touchdowns-to-interceptions,” your check’s in the mail, winner.

To be fair to the man, I still consider him more messiah than pariah; the alibi isn’t without some merit. The Falcons have gone up against three of the top 10 teams in the NFL in total picks over this stretch (San Fran, Nawlins, Carolina), and two more (the Chi and Washington) that rank in the top eight in overall pass defense.

But with a rating steadily plummeting and endgame results steadily sickening (don’t tell me we wouldn’t have beaten the Panthers without Richard Marshall’s interception in the fourth quarter), I’m put on the spot as a Falcons FC: Is something wrong with Matty?

And if not, just what is wrong?

Readers of the Giants game preview got a taste of the observation that Ryan is getting picked off mostly on crossing routes, little intermediate passes slanting over the top of the action to the sideline. I’ll take it a step further here and note that the ball is being taken out of the air way before it gets close to an Atlanta receiver.

After all, when the ball does reach one of our pass-catchers, it, at the very worst, is hitting Michael Jenkins in the hands; Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White will prevent a takeaway with strong hands pretty much every time.

This places the blame more squarely on the quarterback, as he’s obviously not surveying the midfield well enough before launching, or he’s attacking at the wrong trajectory.

…

Or does it mean all that? Could these picks be just about defenders stranded in no-man’s land and happening to be in the right spot at the right time? We certainly saw just that occur when Marshall picked it, and also twice in the Saints game with the interceptions by Darren Sharper and Jabari Greer.

Please don’t get me wrong; I’m not trying to explain away our troubles to mere chance. As I said in the last edition of the column, Ryan’s always-cool exterior must sometimes just be a well-crafted disguise. There’s just no way this guy goes 9-to-11 over a six-game stretch, especially not with the best tight end in history and one of the top five wideouts on his side.

But just how much is luck playing into these picks?

Well, according to my calculations, it’s approximately 33.289756 percent…

As if a number would even help us here!

The answer is:

I don’t care; change the playcalling and, more importantly, Ryan’s reads, and we don’t even have to worry about that garbage.

…

Now you’re probably assuming I want to place blame on offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, or, even more ludicrously, on head coach Mike Smith.

Wrong again. I just want to see greater variety and more options presented to Ryan when we are in passing situations. Like we don’t have enough trustworthy receivers on the team to give the man three check-downs when it’s necessary to go to the air?

For some reason, since the bye week we’ve gone away from the straight shots to Gonzo. Why, might I ask? This was what got us charging down the field late in both the Miami and home Carolina games, allowing the clock to keep running and some late points to be scored.

And I know it’s un-Falcons-like, but presenting a running back as a bailout is starting to make more and more sense, at least on plays which don’t involve Gonzalez. Considering Michael Turner is going to be replaced with Jason Snelling for the entirety of the game coming up at Giants Stadium, it’s even more obvious now that this could help Ice from melting.

Far be it from me to proclaim myself the doctor to cure the Dirty Birds’ offensive ailments, let alone the offensive savant Mularkey is, but things have to change when success is becoming sporadic and injuries are in the mix.

Let’s get back to what had me writing love letters to pieces of the Atlanta aerial assault, not more of this cross-field nonsense.

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Do Da Dirty Bird: Previewing Week 11, Falcons @ Giants

The bye is a ponderous thing. It can be a blessing, allowing a sliding team to rest, regroup, and refocus; or it can be the kiss of death, interrupting a group’s rhythm or allowing losses to fester.

The Atlanta Falcons got theirs out of the way right away, but they’ve been unable to escape the bye week’s effect since then: They’ve drawn three teams coming back from their Sunday off as of the end of Week 10, and are about to play yet another rested squad.

Not to sound overdramatic or anything, but this one is singular in its importance to the rest of our season, as we’re facing the wild card of the NFC Wild Card contenders, the New York Giants.

Did they get their minds right on their sabbatical, or were their four straight losses before it just the beginning? How soon will the fickle Big Apple turn its collective back on the Boys in Blue? Is one of these injuries going to turn into something serious?

And finally, say it with me now: Will the real Eli Manning please stand up ?

I won’t be so pretentious to answer these questions, nor will I be so groan-inducing as to quote Eminem again. I will, however, give you the standard DDDB rundown for this pivotal matchup.

New York Rush Offense vs. Atlanta Rush Defense

Last week’s debacle was just not funny for us. If you read my preview, you know I was expecting us to give up more on the ground in our second meeting with the Panthers than in our first, but good gosh .

Great news, fellas: It gets barely (if any) easier on Sunday. A third-ranked unit drops to a seventh-ranked, but the two-back style persists, as does the general power.

And any concern about missing Derrick Ward’s production following his departure to the Sunshine State? Gimme a break, I knew Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs could do it all on their own.

Blocking and play-calling are exceptional when it comes to running up in East Rutherford. Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride plays to his strengths (read: shoves it down people’s throats), frequently going old-school and employing fullback Madison Hedgecock or the off running back as a lead man, but mixes it up just enough to keep defenses guessing.

I’ll admit that I like to see the G-Men have no triple-digit yardage rushers in the past four games, but then again, we didn’t allow anyone over the century mark last week, and look how that turned out. Maybe it was because we had two different guys coming at us, but we didn’t seem to know where to meet the ball carrier, which obviously portends poorly.

Since day one, I’ve lauded Mike Peterson and Curtis Lofton’s ability to come up and make a tackle at the line without leaving the middle open. But that didn’t happen last week. A return of the usual swarming activity is really the only way NY doesn’t ring up 150 total.

I hate to be so down on the line, but John Abraham looks disinterested out there, Kroy Biermann is all about the sacks, and it’s become, at best, a two-man rotation at tackle, though we can seemingly only get one guy to pay attention to the play per down.

Atlanta Rush Offense vs. New York Rush Defense

I smiled for the majority of the first two quarters this past weekend, despite the score. Michael Turner was back, or more specifically, his monster production was back.

I could say it with certainty, as he beasted for three games in a row and looked like an indestructible…

Too soon? Too soon.

Never has the sprained ankle of a man I’ve only exchanged a nod with been such a concern to me.

Reports are all over the place, so I’m not going to try to add my guess as to the probability that he’ll play this weekend. Suffice it to say if he does, one shouldn’t expect more than 70 yards, as he’ll need to take it easy.

This means we’ll be relying on Jason Snelling, as we did for more than half of the Carolina game, and not to a terribly bad effect. Dude will never be a starter somewhere (did people ever say that about Burner?), but he’s got power and finds his holes a lot better than I once thought he could.

Jason gets the treat of going up against an absolutely sick line. They’re firmly in the middle of the pack when it comes to yards allowed per game, but when it comes to touchdowns given up (four) and rep, there’s nary a team that’s better. Good luck pulling these rocks, Harvey Dahl and Justin Blalock!

This means we’ll need even more skill-position blocking. The receivers have done admirably in appeasing me—it seems my weekly mentions result in weekly improvements, as both Roddy White and Michael Jenkins had memorable chip-ins last week—but we’re going to need even more.

Luckily, I’ve got an idea. Allow me to regale you with another one of my tales of observation that led me to my crackpot plan: Last week, Verron Haynes made a horror of a block downfield on a Snelling run. It led me to think: We need more of this grittiness.

I say put in Haynes and Justin Peelle, blue-collar type guys, in exclusive blocking roles with Snelling in the backfield. It sounds strange, taking out the big names like Tony Gonzalez in exchange for some third-stringers, but clearly we need an alternative when Turner, Jerious Norwood, and Ovie Mughelli are all questionable.

New York Pass Offense vs. Atlanta Pass Defense

Perhaps recalling Marshall Mathers’ 2000 hit was a little harsh for the Giants’ quarterback. In truth, he’s been steady the past three games, though his team has lost all three (two of them at home).

He’s just not the guy who went into Dallas and chucked 330 yards, ensuring a key divisional win. He seems more his pre-2007 self: The younger brother, the guy who can’t take a team to the top, or whatever else they used to think of him.

To think that he’ll play this middling way the rest of the campaign would be a mistake, of course. Will it be this game that he turns it around? I’ll just note that his best two ’09 performances have been on the road, where the Giants are somehow more confident than at home.

But getting to specifics, to think that we’ll pressure him much come Sunday would also be a mistake. The Giants have allowed him to go down just 13 times, and the line’s 15 total sacks allowed is good enough for seventh place in the league. Maybe we’ve been looking at the other side of the trenches too much?

Out in the flat, though, the worry that dominated the preseason—which wide receiver would emerge in Plaxico Burress’ absence—is still a worry. This other Steve Smith has nabbed five scores and managed a nice chunk of yardage due to being targeted so much, but I’m fairly confident in saying that Chris Houston can lock him down, considering he’s not prototypical size.

Get beyond that, and I’m only feeling better. Yes, most of the time I hate to analyze how our other corners will play the No. 2 and No. 3, but I’m not feeling Mario Manningham, let alone baby Hakeem Nicks.

They’ll get a chance to prove themselves, considering Eli will have his usual amount of time in the pocket, but unless we really crap-out in coverage, we should be able to contain.

Atlanta Pass Offense vs. New York Pass Defense

What I assumed was just a few fluky passes is becoming a trend. While I would never turn my back on Matt Ryan and it pains me immensely to even criticize him, something must be done about interceptions.

Over and over again, likely to reader’s nausea, I talk about how ice-cold Ice is, how he never looks shaken. I’m starting to realize he might just be a very good actor; he looks sure throwing the ball pretty much no matter what, but these passes are more inadvisable than he’s letting on.

The timing of his second pick last week just couldn’t have been worse. There’s just no way he can give the Giants, the second-best pass defense when it comes to yards per game, more than one chance at taking one, let alone more than one actual INT.

The unit may only have eight picks among them to this point, but the other numbers don’t lie: C.C. Brown and Terrell Thomas have 72 solo tackles between them, and Michael Johnson and Corey Webster have 27 apiece.

To keep things safe, Dr. McCurdy would prescribe a steady and consistent diet of Gonzo. Long sideline passes to Roddy can come now and then—it seems like it’s crossing routes that freak Ryan out, anyway. The bottom line would be that we’ve got to use the guys with size and strong hands to decrease the likelihood of turnovers.

The bad news is that New York has some size in the defensive backfield to counter ours in the corps. Webster is tall for a corner (though he luckily doesn’t play overly physically), and Michael Johnson is a man’s man.

Of course, they’re more about blowing guys up after the catch, and we’re more worried about what’s going on with the ball in the air. Back to that point, routes need to be run sharply, and Matt needs a bail-out option, even if it’s Snelling for no gain.

Prediction: Giants 24, Falcons 21

You know I’m going to predict a loss as a close loss, right? I think the Giants will have the lead from start to finish, but that my Dirty Birds will never disappear from the rearview mirror.

The G-Men’s week off couldn’t have come sooner. If 14 days without a chance at redemption for their four-game skid doesn’t get these guys fired up, then we’ll have a great chance, but they can’t possibly come back and not have an energized attitude.

A win would take tremendous amounts of pressure off down the stretch, considering we’d be bumping down one of our Wild Card opponents, but I’m afraid we’re going to be relying on the four home games (and trips to a couple of teams with Super Bowls much farther behind them) to get our playoff spot and, more importantly, second consecutive winning season.

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