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The 2009 Bills Off-Season: Filling in the Casual Bills Fan
Published: July 30, 2009
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The 2008 season was a tough one to swallow for Bills fans. One moment the Bills were riding high, and the next moment they had crashed and burned. The off-season started out a little rocky for the Bills and their public relations. The retaining of Dick Jauron and his staff left a bad taste in many fan’s mouths. Their talks with Peters weren’t going anywhere. They cut Dockery, in a fairly surprising move, when it seemed they could have, and should have, gotten some trade value out of him. Laveranues Coles, amongst others, skipped past the Bills and eventually sign with the Bengals. Angelo Crowell ran for the airport. Early on, the fan’s pessimisms were growing.
Did the Bills do enough this off-season to improve and sustain success over 16 regular season games and break the playoff drought? Despite the rough start, many speculate they may have.
Quarterback
Trent Edwards took a major step forward last year…. followed by two steps back. The Bills hope they have enough pieces in place to help Trent take the next step. He is entering his third year, and although he hasn’t quite set the league on fire, he has flashed serious potential at times.
While his arm strength has been questioned, especially in the late season winds at the Ralph, his cerebral approach may reap big rewards. Many experts agree year three is the normal break out year for a young QB, and this fact has many picking Trent as this years break out QB. The Bills have shown a commitment to Trent and his cerebral approach while working almost exclusively out of the no-huddle thus far this offseason. This will allow Edwards more use of his strengths, giving him freedom in changing the play at the line. Whether that continues to be the trend under live, pads-on action, remains to be seen.
The loss of backup JP Losman prompted the Bills to grab Ryan Fitzpatrick off the free agent market. His progression last year filling in for the injured Carson Palmer (Bengals) had him targeted early by the Bills. In fact, the Bills reportedly turned down a trade offer from the Lions, John Kitna for Derrick Dockery, because they wanted Fitz instead. The Bills later released Dockery for nothing.
G. Hamden is a backup holdover from last year. He knows the system, but will hopefully never see the field.
This isn’t a knock on the backups, but the Bills season hinges in the health of Trent Edwards and the progress it is assumed he will make. The Bills are loaded at the offensive skill positions all over the field, but a questionable pass blocking O-line needs to keep the often injured Trent Edwards functioning for the season’s duration if the Bills plan on having success in ’09.
Running Backs
Right when is seemed like Lynch, and his fans, had put his hit and run incident behind him, he was charged with an illegally possessed fire arm. When in the lineup he is one of the hardest running versatile running backs in the league. He may benefit from missing some games early in the season, because historically runners with similar bruising styles have gotten worn down too early in their seasons and careers. Lynch, who is accurately nic-named Beastemode, will not be easily replaced during his three game suspension. Luckily the Bills have one of the deepest, most talented running back stables in the league.
Fred “The Gem” Jackson is cut from the same clothe as Beastemode (The nic-name I gave him may not be as cool or as widely used though). The two combined to catch more passes then any other running back duo in the league last year. Jackson’s off-season, in-season, and game-day efforts are as high as anyone’s, and he has proved he can be highly effective as a starter. Rumor is he’s been in the weight room all off-season, and although he isn’t quite as powerful as Lynch, he is a bit faster, and every bit as versatile. Not a true “change-of-pace” back, but the two make a very effective duo.
These two did not benefit from good, or constant, run blocking last year or a consistent passing attack. But, the Bills made some changes on the O-line in attempts to get more physical up-front. If it goes according to plan, these two may be considered the leagues premier one-two punch by next off-season.
The duo will be joined by Dominic Rhodes in the backfield this season. He was added as insurance, and to be the primary backup to Jackson during Lynch’s suspension. Rhodes, who has produced a 1000 yard season before, has experience and versatility, and should fit right in with these guys.
In this crowed backfield Xavier Omon may be the odd man out. Despite his whooping college production, he only logged six touches last year, in his rookie season. He might be NFL caliber, but this backfield is overflowing. If he has an eye opening preseason, his roster spot may be saved for depth, due to Lynch’s suspension. Then again, sometimes the Bills will do a player like this a favor and cut him early, so he has time to catch on with another team.
The Bills will likely keep a fullback on the roster for goal line or short yardage. But, with the depth and versatility found in their skill positions, I would be surprised if one was used much. Cory McIntyre, fresh off his offseason wrongful arrest for flashing, is the lone holdover. Although the versatile Derek Schouman is now considered to be an in-line blocking tightend, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if using him in spot duty as a fullback prompted the Bills to cut McIntyre to save a roster spot, possibly for Omon. Preseason should sort that out.
Wide Receivers
The addition of Terrell Owens was easily the biggest move of the Bills offseason. Heck, it was one of the biggest moves in the NFL. After a Dallas surprise cut, T.O. was in limbo with teams reportedly blacklisting him. To Bills fans huge surprise, and mostly delight, three days later he was signed by Buffalo in what was arguably their boldest free agent signing ever.
T.O. has averaged more then 10 TDs a season in his career, and he cracked the double digit figure last year, his 13th NFL season. He will be welcomed by a team that had a total of 14 passing TDs last year.
T.O. combined with Lee Evans makes one of the most formidable combinations in the league. Evans, who signed an extension during the 2008 season, is one of the best long ball wide receivers in the game. Consistent double coverages have lowered his production enough to make him one of the most underrated players in the league by outsiders. Now, with T.O. opposite, defenses will be forced to pick their poison, and Evans can hit a big one from any spot on the field.
Josh Reed will now be relegated to his more natural position in the slot. His physical play, run blocking, and sure hands will be a strong asset in the three wide sets. He has developed good chemistry with Trent Edwards, and could serve as a very good security blanket. He has a nose for the first down marker, and his production may be surprising this year.
Not far behind Josh Reed is some very good depth. The Bills have a WR for every situation, and they may be set up for the long term. Despite off-season trade rumors, they still have the speedy Roscoe Parrish. I’ve argued he has been underutilized in years past, but with a crowded stable of WRs, he might be used even less. Steve Johnson came on late last year, his rookie season, and has been turning heads. His “NFL body” is most likely to challenge Reed for playing time. And, no one has yet given up on last years second round pick, 6’6″, James Hardy.
With some blocking, Parrish can execute a reverse with best of them. Second year guys Johnson and Hardy can make a “sizable” impact in the redzone.
Rounding out the receivers is a number of hopefuls headed by special teams standout Justin Jenkins. The Bills will likely look to replace Justin’s gunning prowess with someone from another position because of how crowded this position is.
Tightend
The Bills received very little production out of the tightends last year, and fans were starting to think it was a forgotten position. Robert Royal manned the position for three years in Buffalo, and that was approximately three years too long. I have him as the official leader in “fumbles per touch” over that span (yes, I made that stat up, and no, I didn’t count everyone’s). He was released in February, and has since signed with the Browns.
The Bills have been lacking an athletic, seem-finding, receiving tightend for quite some time, and at first glace, it appeared the Bills had too many holes to afford drafting a top notch one. But, the Bills managed to grab arguably the most talented receiving tightend in this draft, and quite possibly the most athletically gifted tightend they have ever had. To many people’s surprise Shawn Nelson was had in the lower fourth round.
Nelson will challenge holdovers Derek Schouman and Derek Fine. Both are capable blockers, and both are capable receivers. While neither is stellar at either requirement, Schouman is a little better at blocking, and Fine might be a little better at receiving. Nelson will see some playing time, and might even move into a starting role sooner then you may think. But it is unlikely he will begin the season as a starter. The Bills have started him out slowly, lining him up in the slot, as primarily a passing option. This is mostly how he was used in college, and his in-line blocking is a little raw for the Bills, who historically put a premium on the blocking type tightends. Don’t count him out though, he is an underrated and willing blocker.
The receiving production fans should expect from this trio, and the playing time fans should expect from Nelson, both hinge on how well the offensive line holds up. If the tights ends have to stay back for protection all the time, they obviously won’t be catching a lot of balls. If Edwards can get a little time, this offense will be putting a lot of defenses on their heels. With Trent being a younger QB with a propensity for checking down, the tightends have the potential be more productive then they have been in the recent past, despite the huge demands of T.O. If they do get opportunities in the passing game with T.O. and Lee outside, all three could be a problem for an opposing linebacker, and Nelson could be nightmare for them.
Offensive Line
The biggest question mark on the offense this year is the O-line. The Bills are solid-to-loaded at every other offensive position, but their entire season depends on how the offensive front holds up. On paper it might be one of the worst O-lines in the entire NFL. Someone different is manning every position across the line. But, with the Bills facing some of the league’s best nose tackles in the 3-4 defenses of the AFCE so frequently, it is clear they put a premium on shaking up their line, while trying to upgrade the toughness on its interior this offseason.
Last year’s right tackle was Langston Walker. This year it is slated to be Brad Butler. Butler hasn’t had playing time at right tackle since college so it will be a bit of a transition for him. But, he is a very hard worker and is quoted as saying he is willing to do whatever the Bills ask of him.
Due to Butler’s jump outside to tackle, there is a bit of a battle at right guard. Seth McKinney, who got most of the first team reps in OTAs, is likely just keeping the spot warm for first round pick, Eric Wood. Wood is not only transitioning from college to the pros, he is moving from center to guard. He is expected to be a building block on the interior of the Bills O-line for years to come.
The center position last year was arguably the weakest position on the team. The Bills made no attempt to retain Duke Preston or Melvin Fowler, not even as backups. I don’t want to bash the two guys, but Fowler wasn’t strong enough and Preston wasn’t smart enough. Hopefully the Bills have found a guy who can combine strength and brains in Geoff Hangartner. Hangartner started eight games last year for a stellar Carolina line, and although he may not be pro bowl bound, he should be an easy upgrade.
With last years left guard gone, the previously mentioned Dockery, the Bills were left with no clear starter. This position was left in limbo for much of the offseason. There were some trade rumors here and there, but none materialized. The position is being held at this time by last year’s backup tackle, Kirk Chambers. He is being pushed by second round pick Andy Levitre. The Bills traded up to the second round for Levitre, the second interior O-lineman drafted in as many rounds. He is expected to be the eventual LG starter, but he has to earn it.
The biggest change on the Bills line was the change at left tackle, the hardest line position in football. After over a year of pulling teeth with Jason Peters (a player I don’t mind bashing) to get him to play, the Bills finally parted ways with him. Last year he showed up late, then after a mystery injury, he left early. He found his payday, but after quitting on the Bills, it thankfully wasn’t in Buffalo. The Bills received a 2009 1st round pick (28th overall), a 2009 4th round pick, and a 2010 sixth rounder. No doubt his talent will be missed, but his effort will more then be replaced by the massive Langston Walker. Skeptics aren’t convinced Walker is agile enough to excel on the left, but Trent Edwards’ health depends on it.
If it all pans out like the Bills hope, the line from left to right will be Walker, Levitre, Hangartner, Wood, and Butler. This will leave the versatile Chambers as the first guy off the bench if there is an injury at any position. The Bills also have Demetrius Bell on the roster. Hopefully after a year in the NFL condition program he is physically stronger then he was coming out of college last year. Bell may be the most talented LT they have, and he may be the future solution, but right now he is simply too raw.
Defensive Line
In 2008 the Bills pass rush was one of the worst in the league and was near the bottom in sacks, pressures, and turnovers. When Schobel went out of the lineup in week five, the then less than average pass rush took a turn for the worst. No one knew it at the time, but Schobel ended up having a season ending Lisfranc injury. This offseason Schobel has heard his critics, and feels like he has a lot to prove. He said his foot shouldn’t be a factor moving forward and he plans to be as productive as ever. Schobel will likely be lined up with Williams (DT), Stroud (DT), and Kelsey (DE) again.
The only real addition to this unit is first round draft pick Aaron Maybin. He was drafted 11th overall, and is expected to make an impact. How much of an impact, and where, still remains to be seen. He lined up at LDE and RDE in college, and was also projected by some scouts as a 3-4 or rush OLB. He has excellent speed for a lineman, and possibly the fastest first step the world has ever seen in a big man. The only problem is he isn’t exactly all that big. He did manage to put on 25 lbs of muscle leading to the combine, and he is still young and growing, but there are still concerns he isn’t ready to be an every down DE in the NFL just yet.
Personally, I think it is just a matter of time before Maybin takes Kelsey’s job. Kelsey has managed less then five sacks the past two seasons combined. If Kelsey was stellar verses the run that would be one thing, but he is less then average. Maybin will take the obvious passing downs early in the year, and as the season wears on, I believe he will slowly relegate the over paid Kelsey to the pine.
Stroud and Williams will benefit from having Schobel back. These two DTs will be backed up by the capable Spencer Johnson, and possibly a rejuvenated McCargo. Word on the street is McCargo is feeling motivated and in his best shape ever.
Ryan Denny, who miraculously led the D-line in sacks last year will also see time in the DE rotation. Last years third round pick Chris Ellis has been unimpressive thus far, and at this time he is even behind ex-practice squad journeyman Copeland Bryan on the depth chart.
The entire D-line should benefit from a change in approach. Bill Kollar, who emphasized a high effort and motor approach, moved on to the Texans, and he was replaced by the very experienced Bob Sanders. Sanders was Green Bays defensive coordinator last year and has 30 years of coaching experience, including 15 years of D-line coaching. He is being billed as a soften spoken technician and veteran players have already admitted to learning a thing or two from him.
Linebackers
The heart of this unit is third year pro Paul Posluszny. Poz now has over a full year starting under his belt. He struggled and was caught out of position at times last year, but expect him to put those experiences together with his skills to become a leader in the middle of the defense. Plus playing behind Marcus Stroud again isn’t going to hurt. Poz’s top backup is Pat Thomas who started most of last year for the Chiefs.
Weak side linebacker Kawika Mitchell is returning, and although he wasn’t the smash hit I had hoped he would be last season, he is still better then average. If Perry Fewell, the Bills defensive coordinator, could bring himself to send Mitchell on a blitz more often, he can be very effective. But, Mitchell was very inconsistent dropping into coverage. Hopefully with a year in the system he can make the plays he is capable of making more often.
The strong side LB spot is the weakness of this unit. Angelo Crowell, who was put on IR prior to game one last year, is now gone. Keith Ellison, who was shoved into the starting role in Crowell’s absence, somehow managed to keep his job after an unimpressive ‘08 season. This past off-season the Bills must have interviewed half a dozen upgrades, most notably Pisa Tinoisamoa, but none landed in Buffalo. Ellison will be pushed by second year pro Alvin Bowen, and rookie Nic Harris. Alvin was injured his entire rookie season, and Harris is converting from safety to OLB. This may be the weakest spot on the entire defense, and the position is Ellison’s job to lose.
I was hoping the Bills would let John DiGiorgio enter the competition at SOLB, but he recently failed a health physical and was waived from the team. He had knee surgery two weeks ago, and couldn‘t have contributed this year. His loss opens the door for hopefuls Jon Corto, Marcus Buggs, and undrafted rookie Ashlee Palmer.
Cornerbacks
The cornerbacks on this roster are surly the deepest position on the defense. With underrated play maker Jabari Greer gone to the Saints, last years second round pick Leodis McKelvin is primed to step into a full time starters role. He had his rookie moments last year, but at times he showed the skill and playmaking ability that has fans thinking he can become an elite CB.
Paring McKelvin with Terence McGee will give the team a solid starting CB duo. They both lack ideal size to match up with the Randy Mosses of the league, but the are confident and physical playmakers. Each can assist in run support, and each is extremely dangerous if they get the ball in their hands.
The nickel CB job is a hotly contested battle. Right now it is between Ashton Youboty and Reggie Corner. Youboty is entering his fourth year, and he has been held back by off-field problems and injuries. There were times early on last year when he looked like the best player on the field in the nickel package. He was making shoestring, open field tackles, and looked like he was starting to fill some of the massive potential he had coming out of Ohio State. But, he got injured again, and will now be in a struggle to regain his spot.
Reggie Corner was as surprise 4th round pick last year in more ways then one. First, I was surprised the Bills picked him. Then I was surprised he was so good. He is pushing Youboty hard for that nickel spot, and he may actually have the inside track. The biggest difference between the two is Youboty can line up on the outside in case of an injury, so that makes him slightly more valuable.
Another guy in the mix for a backup CB job is the veteran Drayton Florence. Florence made a name for himself working onto the field with the Charges, and then signed a huge contract with the Jags one year ago. But he was cut by the Jags in less then one year. He is the tallest CB on the roster at 6’0″ and will probably land as McKelvin’s backup. Although he has spent time there, he is not likely in the mix for the nickel role.
The Bills also have holdover Dustin Fox and they drafted two CBs late in the draft, Cary Harris (sixth round) and Ellis Lancaster (seventh round). At first, both rookies seemed like long shots to make the team, but Lancaster has turned heads this summer. This is just speculation here, but he may be able to nail down a sixth CB position if he can excel as a gunner. This would also give the Bills the ability to cut Justin Jenkins (WR, and last years gunner) who has almost zero chance of contributing as a WR this year. The only other factor is the Bills may be able to stash Lancaster on the practice squad, and Jenkins is ineligible for that.
These guys held their own last year with an abysmal pass rush. If the front get any kind of pressure look for these guys to make a lot more big plays in 2009
Safeties
This unit is led by the vocal leader Donte Whitner. Whitner was arrested in the spring for an altercation outside a nightclub, but it doesn’t look like it will impact his 2009 season. Critics will tell you he has yet to live up to his draft status of eight overall in the 2006 draft. However, his impact has been hard to assess if you factor in how bad the run defense and pass rush has been since he was drafted. Patience is wearing thin for fans who expected many more big plays from Whitner last year, and it has led many to speculate that the former Ohio State standout is now in jeopardy of losing his starting job. I think this is unlikely, and just like the CBs, he would benefit greatly from an improved pass rush.
Donte Whitner was converted from strong to free safety mid season last year due to the regression of former starter Ko Simpson. Simpson looked horrible last year, but the coaches claim the door is still open for him. He must have a strong showing in preseason if he is to see any playing time, or even make the team for that matter.
When the Bills moved Whitner to Simpson’s free safety position last year, Bryan Scott stepped in at the vacated strong safety position and played admirably. He excels in run support and is physical enough to match up fairly well with the better pass catching tight ends in the league. But, Scott isn’t the fastest strong safety so his overall impact on the pass defense was limited by his questionable range.
Overall the safeties struggled in ‘08, and not one recorded an interception. This prompted the Bills to seek out a ball hawking type safety in the off-season. To many fan’s surprise, they drafted Jairus Byrd out of Oregon St. Byrd was a standout CB and recorded 17 interceptions in his three years there. He is being converted to safety, and is expected to compete for the starting free safety spot, which would likely move Donte back to his original strong safety position.
Other hopefuls for this position include George Wilson and John Wendling. Wilson is a fan favorite, and Wendling’s claim to fame is he can sometimes hurdle the line while attempting to block field goals.
Special Teams
The Bills have possessed one of the league’s premier special teams units for the better part of the past decade. The league has undergone some minor special teams rule changes, but the Bills are projected to have the leagues best special team unit again this year. Their returners Parrish (punts) and McKelvin (kickoffs) are second to none. The punter Brian Moorman is one of the best in the league. Ryan Lindell had one of his worst seasons last year, but it was pretty good for kicking in Buffalo, and I expect him to rebound.
John Corto, Wendling, and Jenkins where special teams standouts last year and will be struggling to make the team this year. They may be joining fellow 2008 special team standout Blake Costanzo, who was cut this offseason and picked up by the Browns. Fans shouldn’t worry though, there is plenty of fresh talent for special teams innovator Bobby April to play with. But, as always with Buffalo, if two players are close, the one who can contribute in more then one ways usually gets the nod.
Coaching
After the Bills third straight 7-9 season not much changed with the staff. As previously mentioned Kollar was replaced by Sanders on the D-line, but that is it. Many fans and media members speculate the Jauron is in the hotseat and cannot afford a slow start, despite the fact he signed a three year extension. But, if we know anything about Wilson it is that he is unlikely to buy out a contract, and even less likely to make a change midseason. But, one more 7-9 season, and Wilson may be forced to make a change or fans will be pouring on the pressure. It is doubtful he can make another T.O. sized signing to keep all the fans interested after another underachieving season.
The biggest differences may be a slight change in gameplans. The coaching staff has had some continuity, and it may be time to open things up. As mentioned earlier, the offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, had the offense working almost exclusively on the hurry-up offense thus far this summer. Perry Fewell has been switching around Poz and Mitchell some, in attempts to confuse opposing offenses and hide blitzes. There is also the thought that the Bills may cover using man-to-man a little bit more then they did last season, with more press on the line.
One thing is for sure, it would be very hard for the Bills to be as conservative as they were in 2008, so look for both sides of the ball to be at least a little bit more aggressive then they have been in recent years.
Conclusion
This season looks promising, but it depends on a couple things going the Bills way. First, if the O-line is even average, then this offense could be very dangerous. Second, not only does Trent have to stay healthy, he has to progress. And third, but not last, the return of Schobel, and the addition of Maybin has to generate a better pass rush.
After the Bills embarrassing loss to the Dolphins in Toronto week 15 last year, Bills owner Ralph Wilson (who was inducted into the Hall of Fame with Bruce Smith in the 2009 class) was quoted saying, “We don’t have enough talent”. Well, Mr. Wilson was recently quoted saying, “I think we have the talent now”. Only time will tell if this is just another hope-rising, suspense-building, talent-squandering off-season, or if this was finally the one to get them over the hump and into the play-offs.
The other day I was out sporting my Bills cap when a youngster came up to me and said, “Why the Bills? They suck.” And I will tell you what I told him, “They have for quite some time now, but it is a new season. Everyone is 0-0. They could be great for all we know.” I know it’s only July, but I’m itching to find out.
