Looking Ahead to the NFL 2010

 

Draft class 2010, Top four picks

Admit I’m a draft junkie. I truly enjoy the challenge of trying to evaluate college kids coming into the pros. As the college season comes to a close, there is a great opportunity to evaluate players who will be attempting to go pro, play in some big games, against quality opponents.

Pro football is also entering its home stretch and the hopes and dreams of fans whose team as struggled this year often rest with the NFL draft. As a diehard Lions fan, I look at April as a chance to hopefully, maybe, get out of the NFL basement.

It’s pretty clear who the bottom four teams in the NFL will be at this point: St. Louis, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. At this point there are five teams who have 3 wins, so positions 5-9 is up in the air. In this article I want to look at the bottom four teams and look at how the top of the draft may look. (I realize trades are possible, but I am going to assume the team is unable to trade the pick).

St. Louis:

St. Louis has holes everywhere, as would be expected from a team that has only one win (against the Lions). When healthy the Rams have a pro bowl quarter back (Bulger) RB (Jackson), and FS (Atogwe). The Rams also, have a young offensive line, which will improve with time. I think with the Rams selecting in the top three they will most likely target one of the talented QB’s who will be coming out this year. If the Rams have the No. 1 pick they have three options.

Option one: Select a quarterback. Jake Locker, Sam Bradford, and Jimmy Clausen are all possibilities. I think Bradford would be the pick. Regardless of which quarterback the Rams choose, they would have the luxury of bringing them along slowly behind Bulger (assuming Bulger is healthy).

Option two: Select one of the two dominant DT’s: Gerald McCoy or Ndamukong Suh. Either DT would bring an immediate impact and be a great selection. Both McCoy and Suh routinely beat double teams, and make plays in both the passing game and the run game.

Option three: Defensive backfield. Eric Berry has been compared to Ed Reed, and currently sits atop Todd McShay’s big board. He’s a very solid against both the run and the pass and will be a pro bowl caliber player. The other choice is DB Joe Haden. Haden is eligible to return to FL for one more year, but I think he will declare for the draft.

Summary: St. Louis has many holes on their roster; however they do have pieces to build around. I think St. Louis would love to get a playmaker at WR but there isn’t a player at that position worthy of being a top 3 pick. I think in the end the Rams decide to draft a QB to replace the oft injured Bulger.

Cleveland:

Cleveland has struggled mightily this year. They absolutely must resolve the issue at quarterback between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Both QB’s have had years to forget, and the Browns have invested heavily in both. The Browns have needs at WR, OL, DL, LB’s, and DB. Three options the Browns will consider at the top of the draft.

The Browns would most likely love to trade this pick to get more draft picks. Cleveland is ranked at the bottom of all major offensive categories. Unfortunately for the Browns, outside of quarterback, there aren’t offensive players really worthy of being a top 3 pick.

Option one: Select a QB. If the Browns decide neither Quinn nor Anderson is the long term answer at QB they will most likely draft one of top three young QB’s coming out this year. Because Quinn or Anderson will be on the team in 2010, the Browns could target a QB who needs some seasoning. If I were the Browns, I would target Jimmy Clausen* or Sam Bradford. Bradford or Clausen would be able to challenge immediately for playing time.

Option two: Eric Berry or Joe Haden*. The Browns secondary could use a complete overall and either Berry or Haden would be a great start in that direction.

Option three: DE Derrick Morgan or Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap has big game experience and is a big time pass rusher. Morgan also, has tremendous upside, and could provide a legitimate threat alongside NT Shaun Rogers.

Option four: The Browns could “reach” for a skill player like Dez Bryant or CJ Spiller, but I think that is unlikely.

Summary: The Browns offense is horrible. Contrary to my opinion I think they will go after an offensive playmaker, a QB, WR, or RB.

 

Tampa Bay: This has been a season Tampa fans would love to forget. There is good news for Bucs fans, Bryant (WR) and Williams (RB) will be back next year and Freeman will have a year under his belt. The defense in Tampa is also a plus for the future. I think the Bucs will focus on strengthening their offensive and defensive lines early in the draft this year.

Option one: I think there is a good chance the Bucs will take OT Russell Okung. Josh Freeman is the QB of the present and future in Tampa and they need to protect him. Okung is rated as the top offensive lineman in the draft and would most likely be able to start from day one and anchor the O-line for years to come.

Option two: They draft a stud defensive lineman. They could go with McCoy, Suh, Dunlap or Morgan and have the position locked down for 10 years. Tampa’s best years were built around a tough defense, so I think it would make sense to draft a player like Suh who will command double teams and create havoc along the line in a similar fashion to Warren Sapp.

Option three: Safety Eric Berry. Barry has been compared favorably to Ed Reed, and for a team known for defense, that will be hard to pass up.

Summary: I think it makes the most sense for Tampa to draft an OT with their first pick. They need to protect Freeman and give him the time to develop. There is always a possibility they will draft on the defensive side of the ball, with a player like Suh, McCoy or Berry.

Detroit:

The only positions Detroit doesn’t need to drastic improvement is QB (first round pick Matt Stafford), TE (first round pick Brandon Pettigrew), FS (second round pick Louis Delmas) and the line backing core. Every other position in Detroit needs improvement. One area the Lions will look to improve in the draft is their pass rush which ranks last in the league. If the season ended today Detroit would be picking 4^th I’m sure the Lions would love to trade down, but I doubt they will have that option.

Option one: Draft McCoy or Suh. I highly doubt both McCoy and Suh will drop out of the top 3, so Detroit most likely won’t be picking between them. The Lions would love to inject some talent and youth at the DT position, so drafting either of these players make sense.

Option two: Berry or Haden. The Lions could use a hard hitting strong safety which Barry brings, but the Lions could also use a shut down corner which Haden brings. The Lions secondary is by far the worst in the league, so drafting either of these players would help to bring some respectability to the position.

Option three: Okung. Okung is the top offensive lineman in the draft and the Lions offensive line has been in shambles all season. The Lions really need help at the guard positions, and drafting Okung can help there as Jeff Backus (current LT) could be shifted inside to guard. Okung should be able to start immediately and improve the pass protection and running game.

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The Detroit Lions look to the 2010 Draft for Help

In the 2009 NFL draft the Detroit Lions drafted quarterback Matthew Stafford as the cornerstone of the franchise. This season has been predictably difficult for the rookie QB whose team is painfully short on talent. Short of a sudden miracle turnaround, the Lions are looking like a guarantee for a top five (if not top three) pick in the 2010 draft.

As a die-hard Lions fan, once the Lions have reached this point (1-6) with no real hope of winning many, if any more games the rest of the season, I begin to look ahead to the draft, where maybe, hopefully, some talent can infuse this team and make it possible to win four games in a year.

I want to look at the first three rounds of the draft. Players who maybe available and what positions I think the Lions should target.

Round One

The Lions have so many holes its sad. In round one, the Lions should target defensive line, offensive line and secondary. The Lions secondary could be considered the weakest link on the team, but the offensive and defensive lines are close behind.

Jeff Backus has been a reliable and a solid left tackle, but both guard positions lack a clear starter and right tackle is still a work in progress with second-year player Gosder Cherilus. This year’s draft seems weak on rock solid offensive line players worthy of a first-round pick outside of Oklahoma State offensive lineman Russell Okung.

Defensive tackle is in transition. Rookie Sammie Hill has played better then expected, but he needs a partner inside. Grady Jackson is a stop gap player (like most on the defensive line) so the Lions should be looking at defensive tackles as well as defensive end. The Lions pass rush is very weak. The 2010 draft has several very good DT’s as well as DE’s that should be top-10 picks.

DT: Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy lead the defensive tackles, while Carlos Dunlap is the lead DE is the class of this group. If the Lions choose to draft along the d-line, I would draft one of these tackles. Both McCoy and Suh are good run stoppers as well as being able to put pressure on the QB.

Secondary: Second-round pick safety Louis Delmas has shown improvement as the season has progressed. The other three spots in the secondary have been a string of revolving doors. Defensive back Eric Berry, corner back Joe Haden, and S Taylor May are the elite players in the secondary in this years draft (assuming Berry and Haden leave school early). Berry and May play primarily safety. All three players have good upside and could be starters from day one.

In round one I would like to see the Lions draft DL help. I believe a successful football team is built around defense and a good defense is built along the line. My preference would be Suh, McCoy, or Dunlap.

Round Two

It would be easy to say round two should follow the mold of round one picking the “best” player to fit one of the areas not addressed in round one. I have a different opinion.

Following the Lions loss to the St. Louis Rams and their dismantling by the Green Bay Packers, it has shown just how valuable wide receiver Calvin Johnson is to the Lions and how badly they needed another weapon on offense. In round two, I would love to see the Lions draft WR/PR Jordan Shipley.

Shipley would help the Lions on two fronts: One, he is an excellent slot receiver with good hands and after the catch ability. Secondly, Shipley is an above average punt/kick returner, another area of the Lions team this year which has been exceptionally bad.

If Shipley is unavailable, the Lions should then look to the secondary,offensive line and defensive line.

Round Three

Again, the Lions secondary,offensive line, and defensive line are so poor, round three should be an effort to continue to build there. In round three in 2009, the Lions scored with outside linebacker DeAndre Levy.

Some players who could be interesting and available in round three such as: Kyle Wilson, CB Boise State, Mitch Petrus OG, Arkansas, Mike Johnson, OL Alabama, Sam Young, OT Notre Dame, and Kyle Calloway, OL Iowa.

I think Johnson would be a good pick here as he has played multiple OL positions and has played them well.

The Lions remain two good drafts from a .500 season. It is critical for the Lions to improve their defense and offensive lines if they are going to get out of the NFL basement.

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Detroit Lions: 2006 What Could Have Been

It takes thee to four years to truly evaluate a draft class. The 2006 draft class has three full NFL seasons under their belt. As draft grades are being tossed around, I think its time to look back at the ’06 draft and see where the Lions could have taken a different (better) direction.

Round One, Ninth Pick: Ernie Sims, LB, Florida State

Sims has compiled 371 tackles, 2.5 sacks, four passes defended, and one interception. Those are decent numbers. I would like to see some forced fumbles, but he’s been solid.

My grade on the Sims pick: B+

Notable Players Available at No. 9 Overall

QB Jay Cutler, DT Haloti Ngata, and DE/LB Kamerion Wimbley. If the Lions could have a do over, I think they would have taken Cutler over Sims., Sims has been a solid, but not a game changing LB. Cutler would have provided the franchise the QB they’ve been searching for.

Round Two, 40th Pick: Daniel Bullocks, DB, Nebraska

Bullocks missed the 2007 due to injury. In two seasons he’s compiled, 168 tackles, five passes defended, and 0 interceptions. Bullocks has been a back up. While he’s not a horrible player, he has not lived up his second round draft status.

My grade: D

Notable Players Available at No. 40 Overall

DB Danieal Manning, OG Deuce Lutui, DB Roman Harper, DB Cedric Griffin, DB Devin Hester, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew. Clearly the Lions struck out with their pick. Any of the mentioned players would have been a better pick. My pick would be Harper or Griffin, but an argument could be made for any of them.

Round Three, 74th pick: Brian Calhoun, RB, Wisconsin

Calhoun missed the 2008 season. He has not done much, this, in my opinion is another poor pick.

My grade: D

Notable Players Available at No. 74 Overall

RB Jerious Norwood and OG Jason Spitz. Either of these players would have been upgrades for the Lions. I would have picked Spitz, to help solidify the offensive line.

Round Four: The Lions Did Not Have a Fourth Round Pick

Round Five, 141st Pick: Jonathan Scott, OT, Texas

Scott plays for the Buffalo Bills now, and has played in 20 games over three years, with six starts. This isn’t a horrible pick, the later rounds are more of a crap shoot anyway. Scott has been a backup. Adding depth should be the primary goal of rounds 5-7 anyways.

My grade: C+

Notable Players Available at No. 141 Overall

LB Brandon Johnson, DB Dawan Landry, DE Mark Anderson. There are others, Landry seems like the best of the bunch in my opinion.

Round Six, 179th pick: Alton McCann, DB, West Virginia

To my knowledge, McCann has not played an NFL game.

My grade: D

Notable Players Available at No. 179 Overall

DT Johnny Jolly, OT Jeromey Clary, and OT Charlie Johnson.

Round Seven, 217th pick: Fred Matua, OG, USC.

Round Seven, 247th pick: Anthony Cannon, LB, Tulane.

Matua has gone to a couple of different teams, but has yet to play a game in the NFL. Cannon has not made it in the NFL.

My grade: D

I grade similar to a college grading scale (A =  4.0, B = 3.0, C = 2.0, D = 1.0, F = 0.0) and give rounds descending values (first = five credits, second = four credits, third = three credits, fourth = two credits, fifth-seventh = one credit).

Based on this scale, the Lions would recieve a C- from me for their 2006 NFL draft.

Hopefully the 2009 class grades out better.

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