Fantasy Rankings: AFC West Wide Receivers in 2009

Though the division is devoid of any superstars, as Brandon Marshall may be the closest to one, but has too many issues, a few of the young receivers are on the door step of announcing their entrance to the upper echelon of fantasy football.

 

1. Dwayne Bowe

In just his second year in the NFL, and playing for a horrendous 2-and-14 Chiefs team, Bowe took a big step forward and grabbed 86 balls, for over 1,000 yards, and seven TDs.

This year, playing under new offensive-minded coach Todd Haley, and with the upgrade at the QB position with Matt Cassel, look for Bowe to become an elite fantasy receiver with 90 plus catches, for over 1,200 yards and double digit TDs.

 

2.Vincent Jackson

Back when Tomlinson was the league’s premier running back, and Gates was the team’s top receiving option, the Chargers’ receiving corps was barely heard of.

But with Tomlinson now slowed by injury and age, and injuries taking their toll on Gates’ body, the receivers have now stepped to the forefront, and at the head of that charge is Vincent Jackson.

The 6’5″ third-year receiver caught 59 balls for 1,098 yards, and seven TDs last year, and became Rivers go-to guy late in the season.

This year, his fifth year in the league, look for Jackson to hit the 1,200-yard mark with double digit TDs.

 

3. Brandon Marshall

Based on talent alone, this guy tops the list. He has developed into one of the top receivers in the game since 2006.

However, immaturity, legal issues, and now the loss of Jay Cutler, will all keep him from ranking higher on the fantasy draft charts in 2009.

With the prospects of receiving balls from either Kyle Orton, look for Marshall’s numbers to take a significant step backwards, although he’ll still eclipse the 1,000-yard mark and score nine TDs.

 

4. Eddie Royal

Marshall’s counterpart, Royal, had an excellent rookie season in 2008. The former second-round pick out of Virginia Tech burst onto the season and torched the Raiders for 146 yards and a TD on opening day. Overall, he finished with 91 catches, for 980 yards, and five TDs.

This year, expect McDaniels to utilize Royal in the team’s short passing game as New England used Welker, and for Royal to catch between 75-85 balls for a thousand yards and five to seven TDs.

 

Sleeper

Johnnie Lee Higgins

For those of you expecting to hear Darrius Heyward-Bey’s name called here, think again. Rookie wide receivers rarely make a significant fantasy impact in year one and certainly not a guy playing on the Raiders.

Higgins on the other hand, began to step up late last season and finished with 22 catches for four TDs. This year, he could double both.

 

Draft Tip

Bowe, Jackson and Marshall should all go between round’s three and four. Royal will be a nice second receiver in round six and beyond, while Higgins, our fantasy sleeper for this division, will be ripe for the taking towards the latter rounds of the draft.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC West Wide Receivers in 2009

If you’re looking for star power at the receiver position in the NFC West, you’ll be very disappointed after the Arizona Cardinals. But there are some other players worth noting who could impact your fantasy team.

1. Larry Fitzgerald

Last year’s postseason (546 yards, seven TDs) elevated Fitzgerald into Superman. It also showed who was the most valuable receiver in the desert. Overall, Fitzgerald finished the season with 96 catches, for 1,431 yards and 12 TDs.

And expect for more of the same this year. Warner is back, the offense remains intact, and Fitzgerald is only now entering his prime. So look for at least 90 plus catches, 1,400 yards and 15 TDs.

2. Anquan Boldin

Boldin was the other half of the Cards dynamic duo. Although he missed four games due to injury, he still finished with 89 catches, for 1,038 yards and 11 TDs.

Although he’s been bickering about getting a new deal or being dealt all offseason, it appears that he’ll be back in Arizona in 2009. If he is, look for another 80-90 catch season, with 1,200 yards with double-digit TDs.

3. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

After years of playing second fiddle to Chad Johnson, Housh has moved on to become the number one guy in Seattle. And after totaling 92 catches for 904 yards and four TDs in ’08, mostly playing with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, look for him to improve those numbers in ’09 as Matt Hasselback will be throwing him the football.

I like him to break the 1,000 yard mark and increase his TDs to eight.

4. Donnie Avery

Although playing for a team devoid of passion last season, Avery burst onto the scene and caught 53 balls, for 674 yards and four TDs (one rushing) as a rookie. And this year, future HOF WR Torry Holt is no longer there.

With a healthy Marc Bulger lining up under center, look for Avery, and his blazing speed, to take a big step forward and eclipse the 1,000 yard mark with at least seven TDs. A fantasy sleeper with a lot of upside.

5. Steve Breaston

After catching only eight balls as a rookie, Breaston came out of nowhere in year two and grabbed 77 balls for 1,006 yards, with a majority of those catches and yards coming when Boldin was hurt. While a drop off in production is likely, he should still be a big part of the offense and capitalize in the short to medium range passing game.

And if the Cards do move Boldin, Breaston’s fantasy upside is even greater.

Sleeper – Josh Morgan

Morgan was a real bright spot for the 49ers in the 2008 training camp. And during the season, he showed some of that potential scoring three TDs on just 20 catches.  Heading into this year, with the addition of Michael Crabtree and a new offensive coordinator, the Niners have more pieces in place to score points, and we like Morgan to be a guy who steps up and produces a 60 catch season, with over 800 yards and six TDs.

Draft Tip

Fitzgerald is a late first round pick and should be the first receiver off the board. Boldin won’t last past round two, while TJ should go between rounds three and four. Avery is a good pick between round’s five through seven, while Breaston and Morgan will be provide value and depth from round’s eight and on.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC North Wide Receivers In 2009

The NFC North features two of the top receivers in the NFL, and a few other intriguing options.

 

1. Calvin Johnson

While Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are widely considered the two best receivers in pro football, they’re also in much more appealing situations. But regardless of the fact that he played for an 0-16 team and with three different QBs in ’08,  Calvin still excelled and had over 1,300 receiving yards and 12 TDs.

This year, and the next ten for that matter, the sky is truly the limit. We also think he’ll help bring along Stafford nicely. And if Culpepper’s the guy early on, he’ll bring back flashbacks from Daunte’s early days with Randy Moss.

However, this is also the reason why he won’t be the top ranked fantasy receiver in 2009.

 

2. Greg Jennings

Jennings is an extremely gifted receiver and showed that his breakout season in 2007 wasn’t an aberration. In fact, the transition from Favre to Rodgers couldn’t have gone any smoother as he quickly picked up as the big play deep threat. Overall, he finished with nearly 1,300 yards and nine TDs.

This year, in a season which the Pack should be much improved, look for Green Bay’s number one receiving threat to post big numbers once again, with over 1,300 yards receiving and double digit TDs.

 

3. Bernard Berrian

Berrian is a very good receiver who’s been handicapped by the QBs he’s been cursed to play with. First it was Grossman, then came Frerotte and Jackson. While he still managed 964 yards, with a real QB to throw him the ball, he’d do even more as he’s blessed with excellent top-end deep speed and good hands.

This year, in which old man Favre might be at the helm, look for an improved season and at least 1,000 yards and eight TDs.

 

4. Devin Hester

Hester is easily a guy who could amass 70-80 catches on slant patters, screens and deep balls. Now with Cutler the QB, the opportunities for big plays could be plentiful. After catching 50 passes for 665 yards and three TDs, all while learning the position,  look for an increase in 2009 to at least 850 yards and six TDs.

 

Sleeper – Percy Harvin

The Vikings intend to use Harvin similar to how the Bears envision using Hester—any way they can. Look for Percy to line up in the slot, the back field, the outside receiver position, etc., and for Childress to find a way to get him 10 to 12 touches per game.

This could be the top fantasy rookie of the year.

 

Draft Tip

Johnson is a first round talent who will likely find himself taken in the beginning of round two due to the QB situation in Detroit. Jennings will be an early- to mid-second rounder while Berrian will last to the fourth. Hester will be available from the sixth on while Harvin, who could be around in round seven, could be the sleeper of this year’s draft.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC East Wide Receivers In 2009

The NFC East used to be home to a few of the top receivers in the game: Terrell Owens and Plaxico Burress. But after an off season which saw T.O. released because of chemistry issues, and Burress dropped for how he handled his legal process, the picture is now very clear: the East no longer possesses any substantial firepower at the receiver position.

Santana Moss

This almost reads like 2006, when Moss was a top tier receiver and warranted being taken high in the fantasy draft. Unfortunately this season, there’s just no other viable option, so Moss gets our nod. He struggled at times last season as Campbell and the rest of the offense learned Zorn’s playbook, finishing with just over 1,000 yards and six TDs.

This season, look for more of the same with 1,000 yards and six to eight TDs.

DeSean Jackson

Jackson burst onto the scene and showed his explosiveness from day one. He also showed he had much maturing to do when on a 60-yard plus bomb from McNabb, against the Cowboys on Monday Night in Week two, he dropped the ball before the goal line and proceeded to do his first TD dance. Only problem is it wasn’t a TD.

But as the season progressed, he began to find his stride, and his final fantasy numbers were quite solid for a rookie receiver: 62 catches, 912 yards and two TDs.

This year, playing in a revamped Eagles’ offense, look for for Jackson to take another step forward.

Roy Williams

Williams was brought to Dallas last year because Jerry Jones was desperate for a Super Bowl. And in the process, he vastly overpaid (first, third and a sixth) to land the former Longhorn who reeled inall of 19 catches for 198 yards and one TD over 10 games with the Cowboys.

Now you can blame a lot of those struggles on his having to learn a new system and develop chemistry with Romo, but I think Williams showed that he doesn’t have the toughness to be a number one and saw his production hurt by the competitive play. And we don’t see it getting much better in 2009: just 700 yards and six TDs.

Steve Smith

Smith will go into the season as the Giants number one, but probably won’t stay there long; he’s better suited as the number two. While he lacks the overall speed associated with top tier receivers, he’s quick, sure handed, and extremely adept at finding openings in the secondary. Look for Smith to haul in 60-70 passes, and put four to six in the end zone.

Sleeper

NYG Mario Manninghan. The Giants are desperate to fill the void left by Burress’ absence and Manningham has plenty of talent. And with an entire off season to absorb the Giants playbook, last year’s rookie out of Michigan might become Eli’s go-to guy and impact your fantasy roster.

Draft Tip

None of the NFC East receivers should go before round five, but Roy Williams might come off the board first because people will think Romo will target him more often. Jackson and Moss will go close to eachother and from that point on, you’ll be able to pick and choose from the others to fill out your roster. In the draft’s later rounds, Jeremy Maclin, Mario Manningham, Dominique Hixon, Hakeem Nicks, and Devin Thomas could be valuable third and fourth options.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC South Wide Receivers in 2009

The NFC South possesses a star studded lineup at the receiver position, and some that will be taken off the board very early in your fantasy drafts.

1. Marques Colston

The former seventh round NFL Draft pick has proven to be anything but. He’s developed into a premier NFL wideout and has one of the best in the business throwing the football to him. Last year, as a beneficiary of Brees’ 5,000 yard passing season, he hauled in 47 balls, for 760 yards, and five TDs; all while missing six games due to injury. In fact, in his short career to date, he’s caught 24 TDs.

This year, while Brees’ numbers may come down because the Saints should have a better defense, look for Colston to still emerge with 90 catches, for over 1,200 yards, and 10 TDs.

2. Roddy White

In his first two years playing with Michael Vick, there were whispers that White was a probable bust. Then, in 2007, otherwise known as the year of the Falcons’ meltdown, he began to show the promise that made him a former first round pick with 1,200 yards and six TDs. He did this with guys like Chris Redman at the helm. Last year, playing with rookie sensation Matt Ryan, he broke out and became a top five, to ten receiver in the game.

This year, look for him to take an even bigger step forward, and see his success coincide with Ryan’s development, and look for 90 catches with over 1,200 yards and double digit TDs.

3. Steve Smith

Smith might be the best overall receiver in the game, or right in the conversation with Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson,  but his fantasy value is hurt because he plays in a run oriented system with an erratic QB. In 2008, he finished with over 1,400 yards and six TDs in 14 games.

Regardless, Smith is as explosive as they come, and can be counted on for making tough catches and big plays. Look for another 1,200 plus yard season and at least eight TDs.

4. Antonio Bryant

Only a year ago, Bryant was trying to find a roster. After year’s of moving around from team to team, not because of talent, but because of his poor attitude and some off field incidents, he landed with the Bucs and actually overtook Joey Galloway as the top receiver. For those of you who picked him up off the waiver wire in the beginning of the season, you were rewarded amply, and found a top 10 receiver for the last half of the season.

This year, regardless of his role on the team, look for Bryant to post solid numbers, close to 1,000 yards and over seven TDs.

Sleeper

Last year Lance Moore came on and posted huge numbers for a guy(928 yards and 10 TDs) who came out of nowhere. This year could be much the same, as the Saints show no signs of slowing down on the offensive side of the football.

Draft Tip

While none of these receivers are worthy of being selected in the first round of your fantasy draft, Colston, White, and Smith could come off the board in the second, while Bryant should last no later than the fourth. Moore could be taken from rounds six on and provide top tier fantasy receiving numbers once again.

Fantasy Rankings: AFC North Running Backs in 2009

The running backs from the AFC North once commanded a lot of respect. Age and injuries have forced this group to take a step back.

1. Jamal Lewis

This was probably the most difficult division to choose the top fantasy running back from, but after assessing the overall landscape, Lewis is the logical choice.

While he’s definitely on the downside of his career,  he’s still powerful and still has speed. The drop off in numbers last season can be attributed to the season-long offensive funk the Browns were stuck in. After totaling just 1,000 yards and four TDs in 2008, look for a solid rebound as Mangini takes the reigns. We like Lewis to carry the rock 300 times and hit the 1,200 yards with eight to 10 TDs.

 

2. Willis McGahee

McGahee’s been a bit of an enigma since coming into the league in 2003. At times he’s looked like the star from Miami, pre-horrific knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl, and at other times he looks like a middle-of-the-pack type guy. In an injury-shortened 2008 campaign, and one which saw most of the carries go to McClain, he still managed 675 yards and seven TDs.

With the expected improvement of the Ravens’ offense in year two under Flacco and the addition of first-round pick OT Michael Oher, look for McGahee to once again approach the 1,000 yard mark and score at least seven TDs.

 

3. Willie Parker

In 2008, Parker missed five games due to injury, but still managed to post 791 yards and score five TDs. And while under Tomlin, the Steelers have gone away from traditional Steeler football (smash-mouth) and become more of a finesse team, offensively speaking, there’s still ample opportunity for Parker to load up on yards in both the rushing and receiving department.

 

4. Le’Ron McClain

Coming into last season, the Ravens backfield was supposed to consist of Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. When it was all said and done, a little-known 260 pound fullback had rushed for 900 yards and 10 TDs. For a big, bruising back, he possesses a nice combination of speed and power, and while he might give some carries back to McGahee in 2009, he’ll still be given the ball between 150 to 200 times and be the primary goal-line back. Expect double-digit TDs and another solid fantasy showing.

 

5. Cedric Benson

After the release of Chris Perry in the offseason (and trust me, that’s not a big loss to anyone), it is clear Benson will be the guy in Cincy this year. In 2008, after missing the first four games of the season, and splitting carries once he got in there, he still managed 747 yards and two TDs.

Provided Palmer stays healthy, which will make the Bengals a more competitive unit, look for Benson to build off last year and come close to the 1,000-yard mark with at least six TDs.

6. Rashard Mendenhall

His rookie season was a total bust as he went down with a broken foot early on, but he should have a chance to atone in year two as the 2008 first-round draft choice should get a lot of carries. And with the Steelers likely to be playing with a lead, thanks to its stellar defense, he’ll have the opportunity to wear teams down late in the game. He’ll also be used as the primary back at the goal line.

 

Draft Tip

None of these backs warrant first-round consideration. Lewis will probably come off the board late in the second round or early third. McClain, Parker, and McGahee will all be selected between rounds three through five, while Benson can be had in rounds five through eight.  Mendenhall could be a nice sleeper after round eight.

Fantasy Rankings: AFC South Running Backs In 2009

The collection of running backs in the AFC South is both deep and talented, and represented as well as any other division at the top of fantasy drafts.

1. Maurice Jones-Drew

It was only a matter of time before this mighty mite became the full-time starter. After splitting carries for the past few years with Fred Taylor, the Jaguars said good bye to the long time vet and passed the torch to the tailback from UCLA.

Jones-Drew has been stellar since he’s come into the league and last year, playing behind a decimated offensive line, still managed 824 yards and 12 TDs.

After the Jags went out and stockpiled talented offensive linemen in the draft, look for Jones-Drew as the No. 1 one guy to explode for over 1,400 yards and 15 TDs.

2. Chris Johnson

After Johnson ran a 4.2 at the 2008 NFL Combine, he snuck his way into the first round of the NFL Draft. But everyone thought it would be as a change of pace back with LenDale White. That wasn’t the case.

Johnson’s blinding speed and moves served him well and he established himself as a bonafide fantasy stud from day one, both as a running and receiving threat.

Look for him to pick up where he left off and surpass the 1,300 yard mark this year with double-digit TDs, some being of the longer variety.

3. Joseph Addai

Many of Addai’s problems last year can be attributed to his decimated offensive line, but injuries also prevented him from posting numbers worthy of a top five fantasy pick. And this year, the Colts went out and drafted Donald Brown in the 1st round.

Addai, when healthy, is still an elite back in this league, and with an offensive line back intact, plus better luck in the injury department, he should regain form and post over 1,200 yards with double-digit TDs. He’ll also do well receiving out of the backfield.

4. Steve Slaton

The steal of last year’s fantasy draft, Steve Slaton, shrugged off all naysayers who said that he couldn’t be a number one guy, and rushed for over 1,200 yards and nine TDs. And over the last five games of the season, he began to get stronger and stronger, and rattled off three 100 yard games with three TDs.

This year he’ll look to prove that he wasn’t just a one year wonder. And playing in a potentially potent Texans’ offense, we think he’ll do just fine. Look for him to eclipse the 1,200 yard mark and hit double-digit TDs in year two. And like the RBs listed ahead of him, he’ll also provide some points in the receiving department.

5. LenDale White

While White’s not a threat in the yardage department, he does know how to get into the end zone; he crossed the goal line 15 times last season. And this year we look for similar results.

Fisher is a run first, pass second coach, and Kerry Collins isn’t exactly a gun slinger. While Johnson is clearly the MAN in Tennessee, look for White to pick up 30 percent of the carries and score double-digit TDs once again.

6. Donald Brown

Brown’s initial role as a rookie will be to keep Addai fresh, but as the season moves along, look for his load to get heavier. The talented player from Connecticut, taken in the first round of the Draft, went ahead of many other areas of need, so you know GM Bill Polian plans to use him. And should Addai once again miss time, look for Brown to be a nice sleeper.

Draft Tip

The first round will see Jones-Drew, Johnson and Addai all taken off the board, starting from pick five on. Slaton shouldn’t last past round two, and White will go between rounds three and five because he scores so many TDs. Brown will be a late round sleeper who could turn out to be a gem should Addai suffer an injury.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC West Running Backs In 2009

The NFC West was the worst division in football last year, but not because of its running backs. A few of the better ones in fantasy football call this division home.

1. Steven Jackson

Jackson possesses a tremendous amount of talent and would be a top two or three pick each year if he were able to stay healthy. At 6’2″, 230 plus pounds, he has the speed to take it the distance, the toughness to get extra yards, and the hands to be a viable receiving option out of the backfield.

Even in last year’s injury plagued season, he still managed to hit the thousand yard mark and score seven TDs, although he played for one of the three worst teams in the NFL. In 2009, provided he stays healthy, look for him to close in on 2,000 yards total (1,600 rushing), and score double digit TDs.

2. Frank Gore

Gore’s a bit of an enigma because he had a huge breakout season in 2006 and then reverted to a middle of the pack back in 2007 and 2008. A lot of this has to do with the offensive situation he’s found himself in.

2009 offers a new opportunity; Martz is gone, Singletary is a run oriented coach and the Niners have put some talented pieces in place (Crabtree, Morgan, etc) to open things up. Look for Gore to hit over 1,200 yards and score between eight and ten TDs.

3. Chris “Beanie” Wells

Wells brings an impressive resume to the NFL and should find a nice home in the desert. While he’s not a standout in any one area, he possess the size, toughness and speed to be a solid fantasy back.

And although the Cardinals went away from the run for the better part of 2008, after the 47-7 whipping at the hands of the Patriots in December, they realized that the run was necessary to balancing out the offense and James ended up thriving in the post season.

Look for Wells to be effective right off the bat and hit the 1,000 yard mark with eight to ten TDs.

4. Julius Jones

Ever since his breakout year way back in 2004, Jones has been a disappointment. He peaked as a rookie and has never come close to regaining that form which took the NFL by storm.

With Hasselback fully healthy, Seattle should once again find its offensive form, but we see a running back by committee in the Northwest and we like Jones to get 750 yards and five TDs.

Draft Tip

Although Jackson has been injured in the past two seasons, he’s worth the pick if you’re at No. five or six. Gore should be taken at the back of the first round, early second, while Wells could provide nice value between rounds five and seven. Jones will be around between rounds eight through 11 and will be nothing more than a flex option until proven otherwise.

Fantasy Rankings: NFC East Running Backs in 2009

The NFC East features a collection of talented runners, who also happen to rank among the elite in fantasy. Here’s how they rate in 2009.

1. Brandon Jacobs

The mammoth Giants back put up over 1,000 yards in 13 games last season and scored 15 TDs. His biggest obstacle to overcome is the injury bug, as he’s been unable to stay healthy for an entire season in each of his two seasons as the full-time starter. But with the Giants more committed to the run in 2009, look for Jacobs to have his number called 15-20 times per game and put up big numbers, especially in the six-point variety.

 

2. Brian Westbrook

Westbrook is still one of the top two or three most dangerous game breakers in the NFL, but age seems to be catching up and the injuries over the past few seasons are beginning to take their toll. The Eagles went out and drafted LeSean McCoy in the second round this year, so look for Westbrook’s load to be lightened. But he’ll still be a 1st round selection and solid fantasy threat.

 

3. Marion Barber

The Cowboys will adjust to the loss of T.O. by focusing more on the running game. And Barber will be the beneficiary of the increased carries. He seemed to wear down towards the end of last season—his first as the full-time starter—and sustained a toe injury, but we like him to bounce back with over 1,000 yards and double digit TDs in 2009. He’s also very good as a receiver out of the backfield.

 

4. Clinton Portis

Portis is still a premier back, but he was used heavily last season and began to wear down towards the end. The Skins don’t have too many weapons (outside of Portis) to put fear into opposing defenses and play in the toughest division in football, as the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles all possess top 10 defenses. Look for Portis to post solid numbers, but we expect his carries, yards and TDs to be lessened in 2009.

 

5. Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw finally assumes the No. 2 role in the Giants running back rotation and should provide an excellent change of pace to the bruising Jacobs. In his limited time during the 2007 Super Bowl run, he showed flashes of brilliance. Now, he gets to show what he can do over the course of the season, and we expect he’ll put up 1,000 yards and break a few long TDs.

 

6. Felix Jones

Before injuring himself, Jones showed his tremendous speed and took a few balls—on both special teams and out of the backfield—to the house. As the complement to Barber, and with the Cowboys relying more on their running game as well, look for Jones to have the opportunity to get between 700-900 yards and take a few more to the house.

Can Michael Turner Match Last Year’s Fantasy Success in 2009?

After years of being buried behind the great LaDainian Tomlinson on the depth chart in San Diego, Michael Turner, the former backup running back, flew the coup in 2008 and headed for a starting job in Atlanta.

The Falcons, coming off a horrific 2007 campaign, signed the 244-pound bruiser to a $34-million contract over five years, and he rewarded them handsomely with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 TD last season.

Or, in our language, 277 fantasy points, good for No. 2 at the position behind fellow NFC South back DeAngelo Williams (278).

Was this an aberration, or should we expect these type of numbers from Turner again in 2009?

 

All elements certainly appear to be in place to build off of 2008.

Roddy White is a year older and is now in the conversation of top wide receivers in the game. The Falcons boldly went out and upgraded the tight end position by picking up Tony Gonzalez in a pre-draft trade. The offensive line is a year more mature and developed from midseason on into a formidable unit.

And we can’t forget that quarterback Matt Ryan, the 2008 NFL Rookie of the Year, will be entering his second season and could be poised to take a big step forward.

So there’s a lot to like.

 

But there are also reasons to think that Turner will be unable to match last year’s fantasy success and could take a significant step back.

The Falcons will no longer be blessed with a last-place schedule; they’ve now got a second-place docket and face off with the NFC East in 2009. Facing defenses like the Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, and ‘Skins—all in the top eight statistically last season—is a far more daunting task than dealing with last season’s opponents, the Lions, Packers, Bears, and Vikings.

The Falcons also get the AFC East, which features stingy defenses in the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins.

This could present obstacles to Ryan’s maturation. Already having to face two tough defenses in his division two times per year in Carolina and Tampa Bay, now he has to add seven more to his plate. Quickly, it looks like yards will be harder to come by in 2009.

Turner’s production will definitely be affected as a result of the schedule. As quality defenses know how to pressure the QB, they’ll key in on Turner and force Ryan to beat them.

And as sensational as “The Burner” was last year when defensive coordinators tried this approach, it’s a whole different story when Giants defensive end Justin Tuck is breathing down your neck or when Cowboys linebacker DeMarcus Ware gets a free release and is draped all over your back.

On top of this, the set enemies for the upcoming campaign are well balanced and pack a solid offensive attack as well. That could leave Atlanta playing from behind in ’09, which will take away carries and attempts from Turner, as Jerious Norwood usually comes in for passing situations.

 

So based on the arguments presented for the two sides above, do I think Turner could have an even better fantasy season than he had in 2008, or even match last year’s production?

Not a chance.

In fact, a significant drop-off should be expected. Look for 17 TD to turn into 11 or 12 and 1,699 yards to turn into 1,250 to 1,300.

This is not a knock on Turner himself or his ability; it’s a testament to the schedule his team was given and the fact that gaining yards will be a heck of a lot more difficult in 2009.

So as you put together your board prior to this year’s fantasy draft, definitely keep Turner in Round One, just towards the bottom half, from picks seven to 10.

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