NFL Week 17: AFC Picks

Unlike previous weeks,  I’m going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

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NFL Week 17: NFC Picks

We’re down to Week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

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NFL Week 16 Picks

I’m usually not a morning person, but things got off to a fast start with my straight up picks last week .

In the early games, I won seven out of eight. Which means I hit eight out of the first 10 games counting the Thursday and Saturday games.

Things didn’t quite go as well in the afternoon however and I ended up finishing with a respectable, but not spectacular, 10-6 weekly record picking straight up.

It was also a bit rougher against the spread. For the week, I had a 7-8-1 record against the bookies.

It actually could have been better. I thought about switching my picks for the Dallas and Carolina games, because I had a feeling they might be close.

Unfortunately, I backed out and it cost me, since both of them not only covered, but won as underdogs. I guess that just goes to show you that betting isn’t for the faint of heart.

As long as we are talking about those upsets last week , what significance will they have on this week’s games? In the grand scheme of things, probably not much.

For the Saints, if anything, it is a good thing they lost. With the exception of the Patriots game they have been coasting since week seven. This will probably serve s a badly needed wake up call going into the playoffs.

As is typical for the Cowboys, they came up big in a game few people expected them to win. The other thing they typically do is lose a big game they are supposed to easily win right after that kind of win.

That and the fact there is a huge chance for them to be looking ahead to the Eagles game next week is why I am picking them to lose to the Redskins this week.

It’s admittedly hard to put a lot of faith in Washington after the way they laid down against the Giants last week, but this pick is based more on the Cowboys than the Redskins.

In regards to the Vikings, all you can really say is what a difference a few weeks makes. At this time four weeks ago, it was a foregone conclusion that the Vikings had the No. two seed sewn up and were a legitimate threat to grab the home field advantage away from the Saints.

Many people were even arguing that the Vikings were the best team in the NFC, if not the entire NFL.

Since then, Minnesota has lost two out of three games and word has leaked out about internal strife between Brett Favre, who has begun looking very ordinary, and Coach Brad Childress. At this point, they are even in danger of losing the No. two seed to the Eagles.

Things may get very interesting for the Vikings even though I’m pretty hard pressed to envision them losing to Chicago and the turnover machine they mortgaged their future to get from Denver (Jay Cutler).

My other big upset pick this week is the Titans over the Chargers. By all rights the Chargers should win this game, but I just have one of those feelings about the Titans.

In fact, there are going to have to be a lot of stars aligning just right over the next two weeks, but I think somehow, someway Tennessee is going to make it into the playoffs. Call it a Christmas miracle, but I believe in them.

For the year, my record now stands at 138-83 straight up and 113-107-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Sixteen NFL Games

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.

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Desean Jackson is for the Eagles Everything TO Could Have Been and More

For as long as Donovan Mcnabb has been in Philadelphia, the prevailing complaint among fans has been the lack of quality receivers.

Prior to last season, the lone exception to that rule was the 2004 season, when Terrell Owens came to town and the Eagles rode the Mcnabb/TO connection all the way to the Super Bowl.

Of course, the very next season, amid injuries to Mcnabb and the familiar antics by Owens, things quickly fell apart

Soon, TO was in Dallas and Eagles’ backers were once again bemoaning a lack of talent among Philly’s pass catching corps. Even Mcnabb himself complained on his personal blog during the offseason in 2008 about the lack of playmakers on the Eagles’ offense.

Perhaps as a result of that, Philadelphia drafted Desean Jackson in the second round three months later. And to slightly rephrase an old saying, the rest is quickly becoming history.

After a solid rookie season in which he showed plenty of potential, Jackson has fully blossomed into arguably the top playmaker in the league.

In the process, he is not only providing a glimpse into what could have been, but even threatening to totally eclipse that one great season Mcnabb and TO shared.

Their styles are clearly different. Desean Jackson is a skinny speedster who can leave defenders holding nothing but air, having tied the record (8) for TD’s of 50-plus yards with two games remaining.

Terrell Owens is five inches taller (6’3″) and fifty pounds heavier (224) than Jackson. While he is by no means slow, his ability to break tackles can turn a routine catch into a long gain.

However, outside of the obvious physical differences, there are plenty of similarities between the two. Not the least of which is their ability to score anytime they get the ball in their hands.

Beyond that, the stats Jackson has accumulated thus far in his breakout sophomore year are actually pretty comparable to TO’s one full season in Philadelphia.

In 13 games this season, Jackson has caught 56 passes for 1,087 yards. In 2004, Owens collected 77 passes for an even 1,200 yards in 14 games. That translates to 83.6 ypg for Jackson vs. 85.7 ypg for TO.

The one sizable advantage that TO has in that comparison is that he scored 14 receiving TD’s, while Jackson has found the end zone eight times on passing plays.

However, when you factor in Jackson’s rushing and punt return plays, the additional three touchdowns and 549 all purpose yards more than even things out.

More importantly, Jackson has already exceeded Owens’ 21 game tenure in green. And unlike TO’s now famous second season blow-up, which precipitated that short stay, Desean Jackson has been a consummate teammate thus far.

Provided that doesn’t change anytime soon, Jackson is just scratching the surface of what should be a long and epic career as an Eagle.

Meanwhile, Terrell Owens is in the process of fading way up in Buffalo, having squandered what easily could have been a great opportunity in Philadelphia.

It’s only a matter of time before “who?” is more than just a sarcastic response to references to TO among Philly faithful. Mcnabb and the Eagles finally have a top playmaker.

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Why the Dallas Cowboys Won’t Avoid Another December Collapse

The New York Giants upset of the Dallas Cowboys has once again prompted speculation that “America’s Team” will fade down the stretch.

Of course, even before last week’s loss there was reason to believe that things might get a bit cold for the Cowboys this winter.

Not only have they been very inconsistent this season, but they have put together a pretty solid record of folding up their tents as soon as the calendar reaches the final page in recent years.

Over the past decade, their December win-loss record is 15-29. So, it wasn’t (or shouldn’t have been) a big shock that they lost to the Giants and looked terrible while doing it.

However, the bigger problem for the Cowboys (and for Wade Philips’ job security) is that, with their schedule, even if they do play as well as they have played all season, they could very easily end up with a losing record in December again.

To close out the season, Dallas plays at home against San Diego, on the road against New Orleans and Washington, and finally back home against Philadelphia. Of those teams, the Redskins are the only ones not likely to be a playoff team.

It’s not at all inconceivable that the Cowboys could upset the Saints, but more likely than not, Dallas will be yet another victim of the juggernaut from New Orleans.

Provided they play up to their potential, the other three games are ones that they should have a good chance of winning. However, San Diego is one of the hottest teams in the league right now having won seven straight. Beating the Chargers will be a very tough task.

The dogfight doesn’t end there, either. Washington has already proved that they can compete with Dallas during their one point loss two weeks ago and Philly has a three game win streak of their own. Plus, no game between NFC East rivals is ever a given, especially if the Eagles and Cowboys are playing for the division crown in their week 17 matchup.

With one December loss already on the books, Dallas will need to win a least three of their final four games to post a winning record for the month. That, combined with their one game lead over the Eagles, leaves the Cowboys without much room for error the remainder of the season.

Beyond that, even if the Cowboys survive December intact, they still have to face their lack of success in the playoffs since ’96. Unless they post a couple wins in the playoffs, those same questions about their late season play will start anew.

The pressure is on for Dallas to finish strong this year and, unfortunately for the Cowboys, their remaining schedule has set them up to fail, yet again.

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