NFL Week 12: Five Things to Watch For

We are now 11 weeks into the 2009 NFL season, and we are still waiting for the first losses from the New Orleans Saints and Indianapolis Colts. In fact, many fans and experts are beginning to wonder if either teams will lose.

Well, with reasonably tough match-ups in Week 12 , this writer is hoping to finally nail the prediction we’ve all been chasing after.

Read on for some analysis on the Colts/Saints games, as well three more things to keep an eye on in this Week 12’s Five Things to Watch For :

5. Can the Green Bay Packers Continue Their Hot Streak?

The title says it’s hot, and for the Packers in 2009, it’ll have to do. The Packers have won two straight, one with a great defensive effort, and another by the arm of Aaron Rodgers and the legs of Ryan Grant.

Normally when a team loses two star defensive players, in this case Aaron Kampman and Al Harris, you’d think a winning streak would come to an end. But, not when you face the Detroit Lions, and especially not when Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are both doubtful for the game.

Packers 34, Lions 10

4. Will the Denver Broncos End Their Slide?

The AFC’s version of the New York Giants will take their own disappointing four-game skid into a match-up with the Giants, who got off the schneid with their first win in five games in Week 11.

We’re going with the team that has looked fairly solid in two straight games, rather than the one that has look absolutely atrocious for four straight.

Giants 26, Broncos 23

3. Will Chris Johnson Keep his Streak, and the Titans’ Alive?

Johnson has been on an absolute tear, running for 100+ yards in five straight games, while guiding the Titans to four straight wins. The Titans appear to be for real on both sides of the ball, as their pass defense has gotten stingy and their offense has played smart football during their streak.

They face a decent Arizona Cardinals run defense this week, but can we really start betting against CJ and Vince Young now? We wouldn’t.

Titans 24, Cardinals 20

2. Can the New England Patriots Expose the New Orleans Saints?

Every other team not named the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can, so why not?

The Patriots have made a strong commitment to getting their ground attack going in recent weeks, and they’ve done a very good job of running against their opponents. The Saints, while also stalwarts at rushing the ball, have no answer for the opposition’s ground attack, which in turn negatively effects their usually stellar pass defense.

Plain and simple: If the Saints are going to lose in the regular season, this is as safe a bet as any.

Patriots 31, Saints 27

1. Can the Houston Texans Bounce-Back and Get Their Revenge on the Indianapolis Colts?

I believe they can. They put up a decent fight against an inspired Tennessee team and a star running back (Chris Johnson) that simply will not be denied.

It doesn’t say a whole lot for their own resilience, but they still could be looking at a 7-3 record, instead of being 5-5, if their kicker (Kris Brown) could have sent them into overtime in their first game against the Colts, as well as last week’s game against the Titans.

Indy has to lose sometime, and this is a must-win week for Houston if they’re serious about making a run at the playoffs .

Texans 27, Colts 24

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As It Stands, Brett Favre Is NFL’s MVP

If we remove all biases and opinions, I feel that we have finally come to the point in the 2009 NFL season , at least for now, that Brett Favre is without a doubt the front-runner for the MVP award.

You can hate him. You can love him. You can respect him, and you can be sick to death of hearing his name.

But one things is for certain—you can’t ignore the season he and his team are having.

You can make arguments for his teammate, Adrian Peterson. You could easily say that Peyton Manning is deserving, that Drew Brees has been solid, and that because Favre isn’t undefeated, he can’t win the award over either of the aforementioned quarterbacks.

Hell, when it’s all said and done, if Aaron Rodgers can will his Green Bay Packers into the playoffs, as well as keep his ridiculous numbers up, perhaps he will be the league’s MVP .

Or if Chris Johnson can keep doing what he’s done, maybe he’s the guy.

Perhaps. Maybe. Let’s wonder about it.

But it’s Week 12. This is right now. I’m talking about which guy in this league makes his team the best; who’s team would be lost without him.

Surely, you can make a strong case for any of the mentioned stars, and there are likely another handful of strong candidates. But in a numbers league, Favre is crushing everybody.

Before you scoff at my proposal and litter the world with petty comments about a 40-year old quarterback being an insane MVP nominee, take notice of the facts at hand.

Brett Favre and his Minnesota Vikings are 9-1. That makes for the second-best record in the entire league, with the Vikings only loss coming to the very respectable (and reigning NFL champion) Pittsburgh Steelers.

So, just for argument’s sake, let’s lay down the ground rules.

 

MVP Qualifications

-Team has to have a winning record

-Player has to be having a great statistical season

-Player has to be MVP of own team before being considered for league

Check, check, and check. Again, you can debate for Peterson, but without Favre, at least considering the magical performances his team needed to win in a few games, this team would have a very different identity.

Alas, I digress.

Favre is second in the league with 21 touchdown passes, just one away from Drew Brees.

Favre is second in the league in completion percentage (barely), falling just .1 percentage shy of Peyton Manning at 69.7 percent.

Favre also ranks in the top 15 in passing yards, yards per completion average, attempts, and completions.

He ranks near the middle of the league in sacks taken, and leads all starting quarterbacks who have thrown over 200 passes in 2009 with just three interceptions, while also losing just one fumble all season.

While all these numbers are great and easily put Favre in the conversation of being MVP for the fourth time, it’s his passer rating that leaves the greatest impression.

His 112.1 passer rating is tops in the league, beating out Drew Brees by seven points, and Manning by 10.

Enough now? Well, after looking at Favre’s team record, his stats, and his performance rating, it’s very logical to still, once again, point back to Manning and Brees being very close to Favre in the main categories, while also having their teams at 10-0.

But we’re not taking everything into consideration , are we?

That little thing that Favre always got in trouble for (turnovers), aren’t weighing him (or his team) down this season, while Manning and Brees have both thrown nine interceptions a piece, and Brees has lost four fumbles on the season.

And if this information hasn’t proven Favre’s case, consider the manner and style in which he and his team have performed over the course of the season:

-Favre’s game-winner against the San Francisco 49ers

-His happy-go-lucky style of play

-His two emotional wins over his former team, the Green Bay Packers

While everyone is promoting Tom Brady, Cedric Benson, and others for Comeback Player of the Year, and many others are looking over Favre for the MVP consideration, I suggest a serious glance at old number four for both .

In a season, and career, where Favre has made a habit of over-coming odds, breaking records, and shocking his fans and haters, why stop now ?

For more editorials, breaking news, and fantasy coverage, go here .

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NFL Fantasy Football Injury Update: The Opportunity-Maker/Taker

This article takes a close look at the effect of injuries on the players that sustain them, as well as the supporting cast around them.

Take a look at the key injuries affecting several teams for Week 12 :

Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams

Bulger has sustained his second injury of the season, but this it’s time one that will keep him out for up to a month and possibly the entire season .

Bulger has a broken tibia, and, considering his timetable is a very friendly three to six weeks, he’s likely to go on IR.

The Good:

This means the Rams will likely pound the rock even more with Steven Jackson, and it also means that rookie Keith Null (QB) could get a crack at proving himself if Kyle Boller struggles (he will).

The Bad:

The increased role for Jackson will be welcomed by all fantasy owners, but we can’t say the same for the increased focus defense will have on stopping S-Jax. Without a competent quarterback (not that Bulger was amazing) keeping the offense balanced, there is the real possibility that Jackson struggles down the stretch.

The Rams receivers who have very minimal value as is—Donnie Avery, Brandon Gibson, and Danny Amendola—will almost certainly see their production take a hit.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

There’s nothing official, but reports are already coming out of Detroit that Stafford will not be able to make Thursday’s Thanksgiving match against the Green Bay Packers.

The rookie quarterback has a minor injury to his non-throwing shoulder, but he is in enough pain to possibly keep him out of Week 12’s action.

The Good:

Daunte Culpepper makes his third start of the year, and, judging by his awful results, that is almost solely good for his ego and nothing else.

However, Calvin Johnson is back in top form (but also dealing with injuries ), and, with the Packers losing both OLD Aaron Kampman and star CB Al Harris for the season, the Green Bay defense won’t be at full force. Culpepper is a sketchy play regardless, but Megatron still carries loads of potential in this matchup.

The Bad:

The Packers already do a solid job of stopping the run, and, even without Kampman and Harris, will likely be able to key-in on Kevin Smith and co. with Culpepper struggling.

Culpepper knows the Packers and he could shine with Green Bay’s secondary banged-up, but we wouldn’t bet on it, especially with him preparing in a short week.

Ladell Betts/Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins

Betts is out for the season with torn knee ligaments, and Portis has already been ruled out for the third straight week.

This leaves Rock Cartwright and whomever (if anyone) the Redskins decide to pick-up off the street. Where’s that Larry Johnson when you need him?

The Good:

Cartwright becomes an actual decent flex play and borderline RB2 for the first time in his career, while Jason Campbell and Santana Moss will likely be leaned on even more than usual with a lack of experience and depth in their running game.

The Bad:

If Washington can’t find the right balance on offense, they’ll inevitably be lost and ineffective against a solid Philadelphia Eagles defense. The Eagles would be the favorites, even if the Redskins had Clinton Portis and Chris Cooley healthy. It could be ugly.

Fabian Washington, CB, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens second cornerback sustained an ACL injury and is lost for the remainder of the 2009 season, killing the already weak depth Baltimore’s secondary had.

Add his name to the list, along with Terrell Suggs from last week, and this Ravens’ defense (and team) is officially falling apart .

The Good:

The only good thing about this is that the Ravens have a solid rookie prospect in Lardarius Webb, but even his promise and stellar play in spot duty will likely be cancelled out by the depth hit this gives the secondary.

The Bad:

For Baltimore, this probably means even worse pass defense, which in turn won’t do their run defense any favors. This means great things for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive players in Week 12, and if Ben Roethlisberger is fully healthy (he’s expected to be), you can expect something to the tune of his 380+ yards last week.

For more breaking news, injury updates, and fantasy advice, go here .

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Fantasy Football: Monday Night Sleepers

If you’re still struggling over who may give you your best shot at getting those final five-15 points to steal your Week 11 contest in your fantasy league, this is the article for you.

Obviously if you’re in the rare situation where you still have an open spot or still haven’t decided between some lesser-known Monday night options, it’s time to get some information on who is your best bet to rescue you this week.

With guys like Matt Schaub, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Andre Johnson on other teams or already must-start’s in your line-up, here are the guys that could help you out that are either on your bench, or could be available in the waiver wire:

James Casey, TE, HOU VS. Bo Scaife, TE, TEN

We’re voting for Casey to be the Houston dark-horse for tonight, as well as a huge sleeper pick for the rest of the season. Casey is still going to be coming off the bench behind the current starter, Joel Dreesen, simply because he isn’t an elite blocker.

However, Casey is fully recovered from a knee injury that held him out of Houston’s last contest, and head coach Gary Kubiak has vouched for him, saying that he’ll be a big part of what Houston is trying to do for the stretch run.

Scaife is beyond average, and is really only a candidate for 2-3 catches in any given week. Go with Casey’s upside, as he should begin his attempt to take over for the injured Owen Daniels in front of the nation.

Kenny Britt, WR, TEN, VS. Kevin Walter, WR, HOU

Walter saw his looks and production increase in his last game, and considering his five catches were the most he’s had since his first game of the season.

He’ll obviously be more involved as the season goes on, but with tempting rookie tight end James Casey expected to take over Owen Daniels’ role in the offense, it’s a safe bet that Walter’s production will still remain fairly inconsistent.

We like him this week, but we don’t love him, and even more importantly, we refuse to vouch for him.

Kenny Britt, on the other hand, had 55 yards last week as the starter with Justin gage missing action with a back injury. Gage is out again, and with Houston’s pass defense lacking great depth, Britt could see some positive results much like he experienced earlier in the season. Go with Britt this week over the inconsistent Walter.

For the remaining options for Monday Night’s game, go here.

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NFL News and Notes (Nov. 23rd)

Packers Lose Kampman, Harris For Season

Green Bay lost their star outside linebacker Aaron Kampman and cornerback Al Harris, to knee injuries. Both players are expected to miss the remainder of the 2009 season .

Kampman looks to be fairly replaceable with either Brandon Chillar or Brady Poppinga, who are both quicker and more athletic, making them more suitable for the outside.

Harris, however, despite being 34 and obviously losing a step, will be far more difficult to replace. His only serious replacement option is third year cornerback, Tramon Williams, while the inept Jarrett Bush remains their second-best option.

Needless to say, a Packers defense that was just getting adjusted, will have to learn on the fly and re-establish it’s chemistry.

Ladell Betts Done For Season for the Redskins

Betts reportedly has a torn ACL and MCL, which will effectively end his season.

With Clinton Portis already ruled out for week 12, back-up Rock Cartwright, who ran all over the Atlanta Falcons and gained over 100 total yards on Sunday,is suddenly a bit of a hot commodity.

The Redskins are reportedly searching for another running back to bring aboard, suddenly will be awaiting Portis’s return more eager than before.

Look for Cartwright to be the feature back in week 12 and be a solid flex play, but also keep up with reports dealing with a possible signing of an extra back.

Big Ben Uncertain For Week 12

Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a concussion that could threaten his status for week 12, but reports suggest that he is doing fine and looks as if he could still be a go against the Baltimore Ravens.

However, with an injury to back-up quarterback Charlie Batch as well, the Steelers have inquired about the possible services of veteran quarterback Jeff Garcia .

Dennis Dixon is currently the only other option behind the injured Roethsliberger, so this is a story you should follow if you are a Roethslisbeger owner.

Kurt Warner Confident He’ll Play in Week 12

Warner left week 11’s game against the St. Louis Rams with a head injury and was relieved by back-up Matt Leinart, who was 10-14 for 84 yards passing.

Warner isn’t necessarily expected to miss any action, but if you own him, picking up Leinart (if you haven’t already), is strongly encouraged.

Matthew Stafford Iffy for Thanksgiving Day

After an explosion for 400+ yards passing and five touchdowns Sunday (including the game-winner), Stafford is questionable heading into Thursday’s game against the Green Bay Packers with a non-throwing arm shoulder injury.

For more on Stafford and other NFL news, go here .

 

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Steve Slaton Retains Starting Job: Fantasy Impact

Houston Texans Head Coach Gary Kubiak has re-named Steve Slaton as the starting running back for Monday night’s game against the Tennessee Titans, according to Nick Scurfield, via Twitter.

Slaton was benched three weeks ago after fumbling for the third time in three games, and left the Texans victory over the Buffalo Bills with just three total touches for 11 yards.

Back-up Ryan Moats stepped in after Slaton’s exit and proceeded to run for over 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns, prompting Kubiak to name Moats the starter for Week 10’s match against the Indianapolis Colts .

Despite being listed as the back-up, Slaton still found his way to nine touches, but as only able to rack up 29 yards, while also scoring one touchdown on the ground.

Fantasy Perspective: This is a huge fuss about nothing, as we saw last week that being the starting running back in Houston doesn’t exactly mean you get all the carries.

Houston basically just rides the hot hand, and Slaton is still a risky play, especially with a very tough matchup against a solid Tennessee Titans run defense.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Week 11 Wide Receiver Rankings

We’ve already covered the Quarterbacks and Running Backs rankings this week, so read on for the rankings and some selected analysis for Week 11, and then go check out the Tight End rankings:

1. Larry Fitzgerald @ STL
2. Reggie Wayne @ BAL
3. Andre Johnson vs. TEN
4. Vincent Jackson @ DEN
5. Randy Moss vs. NYJ
6. Roddy White @ NYG
7. Brandon Marshall vs. SD
8. Wes Welker vs. NYJ
9. Calvin Johnson vs. CLE
10. Marques Colston @ TB
11. DeSean Jackson @ CHI
12. Chad Ochocinco @ OAK
13. Sidney Rice vs. SEA
14. Anquan Boldin @ STL (Start )
15. Santonio Holmes @ KC
16. Mike Sims-Walker vs. BUF
17. Greg Jennings vs. SF
18. Hines Ward @ KC
19. Steve Smith vs. ATL
20. Devin Hester vs. PHI   
21. Miles Austin vs. WAS
22. Steve Breaston @ STL
23. Jerricho Cotchery @ NE
24. Donald Driver vs. SF
25. Nate Burleson @ MN
26. Jeremy Maclin @ CHI
27. T.J. Houshmandzadeh @ MN (Sit )
28. Chris Chambers vs. PIT
29. Austin Collie @ BAL
30. Derrick Mason vs. IND
31. Kevin Walter vs. TEN
32. Percy Harvin vs. SEA
33. Hakeem Nicks vs. ATL
34. Braylon Edwards @ NE
35. Michael Crabtree @ GB
36. Pierre Garcon @ BAL
37. Roy Williams vs. WAS
38. Santana Moss @ DAL
39. Lee Evans @ JAC
40. Malcom Floyd @ DEN
41. Devery Henderson @ TB
42. Donnie Avery vs. AZ
43. Lance Long vs. PIT
44. Earl Bennett vs. PHI
45. Bernard Berrian vs. SEA

Notes: The top ten this week are fairly interchangeable, although we caution some severe match-ups for Randy Moss and Andre Johnson. We by no means suggest sitting these guys, but we do warn you that they could be in for some average performances.

We like the receiver match-ups in the Pittsburgh vs. Kansas City game. The Chiefs corners are slow, so we like Santonio Holmes to score for the first time since week one, while Hines Ward continues his nice 2009 ride. As for the Chiefs, we’re quietly promoting Lance Long , while urging you to at least try Chris Chambers as a Flex play. The Steelers are missing Troy Polamalu this week, and we all know the Chiefs won’t be moving the ball on the ground.

All Colts receivers are a go, so that means you can play Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon without feeling guilty about leaving Santana Moss or Lee Evans on your bench. The Ravens should do a nice job stifling the Colts average rushing attack, so all Colts receiving options should be fairly busy against a weak Baltimore secondary.

The Sidney Rice “explosion watch” should continue, as Rice has now topped 130 yard receiving in three of his last four, and it shouldn’t stop against a rather weak Seattle secondary. Just look at what the Cardinals receivers did to them last week.

On another note out of Minnesota, we’re ranking Bernard Berrian this week at the final spot, with the thought that he simply isn’t getting it done. Still, with his speed and talent (and Favre throwing him the ball), he could be due a big game. Sadly, we feel his hamstring injury will be there all season.

For more analysis, check out Week 11’s Fantasy Player Breakdowns .

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Reggie Bush Ruled Out For Week 11: Fantasy Impact

New Orleans Saints star running back Reggie Bush will not travel with the team to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers, and thus has been ruled out for Week 11.

The team is likely being extra cautious with his surgically-repaired knee , one that seems to flare up near the end of every season.

Bush is coming off of a sensational game in which he topped 80 yards rushing off of just five carries while scoring two touchdowns, one on the ground and another through the air.

 

Fantasy Perspective:

Bush would still have only been a Flex play at best, as his touches and role in the offense wasn’t concrete enough to fully rely on. However, he has been scoring at a consistent rate this season, and is definitely roster worthy in almost every league.

His absence should clear any doubt about Pierre Thomas being a beast this week, as the Buccaneers can’t stop the run at all, and now Thomas will only be splitting carries with Mike Bell. In direct connections, Bush’s absence should get Bell back to his usual 10+ carry load, while making him a solid Flex play, as well.

If you’re struggling to find a replacement for Bush this week, take a look at our Waiver Wire Watch , and check out this week’s Fantasy Risers .

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NFL Injury Update: Anthony Gonzalez Could Be Back for Week 12

NFL.com’s Jason La Confora is reporting that Indianapolis Colts’ receiver Anthony Gonzalez could be nearing a return to the field.

After having surgery on his knee just three weeks ago, Gonzalez has been ruled out for Week 11’s game against the Baltimore Ravens, but has been given the green light to begin practicing with the team next week, and could see action as early as next Sunday.

The Colts have been and should continue to be extremely cautious with their young receiver, as his return is not necessarily needed with the offense operating at a high level, while two other young receivers, Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, have performed admirably

Fantasy Perspective: The return of Gonzalez means very little for your fantasy playoff hopes, other than makes you look a little less foolish for keeping him on your roster for this long.

Regardless, the fact that he’ll be returning next week (possibly) could mean he could be inserted back into the starting line-up as early as Week 13, which could have him playing effective football by the time most fantasy league’s begin their playoffs.

Stay tuned for more information regarding Gonzalez’s status and fantasy value.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

Fantasy Football Week 11 Running Back Rankings

We already got a taste of fantasy success if we had DeAngelo Williams or (better yet) Ricky Williams in our line-up on Thursday night.

However, injuries and roster shake-ups constantly change our fantasy perspectives every week, so take a look where we rank the top 35 running backs for Week 11 :

1. Chris Johnson @ HOU
2. Maurice Jones-Drew vs. BUF
3. Adrian Peterson vs. SEA
4. Ray Rice vs. IND
5. Rashard Mendenhall @ KC
6. Frank Gore @ GB
7. Steven Jackson vs. AZ
8. Brandon Jacobs vs. ATL
9. Kevin Smith vs. CLE
10. LaDainian Tomlinson @ DEN
11. Pierre Thomas @ TB
12. Cedric Benson @ OAK
13. Joseph Addai @ BAL
14. Matt Forte vs. PHI
15. Marion Barber vs. WAS
16. Ryan Grant vs. SF
17. Thomas Jones @ NE
18. LeSean McCoy @ CHI
19. Justin Forsett @ MN
20. Jason Snelling @ NYG
21. Ahmad Bradshaw vs. ATL
22. Knowshon Moreno vs. SD
23. Bernard Scott @ OAK
24. Ladell Betts @ DAL
25. Chris Wells  @ STL
26. Marshawn Lynch @ JAC
27. Tim Hightower @ STL
28. Carnell Williams vs. NO
29. Jamal Lewis @ DET
30. Mike Bell @ TB
31. Jamaal Charles vs. PIT
32. Laurence Maroney vs. NYJ
33. Reggie Bush @ TB
34. Ryan Moats vs. TEN
35. Steve Slaton vs. TEN

These rankings are highly dependent on how several player’s injury statuses go come game-day. Cedric Benson has declared himself a game-time decision, which should tease some hopeful owners for the next two days, and then even if he plays, we can’t be certain of his or any other Bengals running backs’ roles.

We’re highly promoting both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw this week, as we like the overall match-up for the Giants offense, and it’s finally time New York got serious about establishing its ground attack again. A soft Atlanta run defense will do it’s best to help out.

Kevin Smith and Jamal Lewis should both see a ton of action as the Lions and Browns both have awful run defenses. Both Cleveland and Detroit could vie to throw the ball on equally pathetic pass defenses, and really, this could be the week for both lackluster offense to reach their ceiling for the season.

Ryan Moats and Steve Slaton individually are top 10 talents in this offense, but the Texans do struggle with the run at times, and facing a tough run defense in Tennessee doesn’t help the value of two backs that are sharing the rock with each other and Chris Brown.

For more analysis on each running back for Week 11, check out NFL Soup ‘s fantasy player breakdowns .

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