Team First: 2009 Broncos Similar To 2003 Patriots

If the late John Denver were still alive to write a song about the 2009 Denver Broncos season thus far, it would have to be called “Rocky Mountain Low.”

After one of the wackiest offseason’s any franchise in NFL history has had to deal with, it would appear to all observers the Broncos are reeling. In the past year, the team fired the head coach that led the team to its two Super Bowl titles, traded their Pro Bowl quarterback, and suspended their No. 1 receiver after his request for a trade was not met.

To even the most casual of football fans, this seems like a train wreck waiting to happen. Rookie Head Coach Josh McDaniels has had to deal with more in his first year than other coaches face in their careers. Broncos fans all over the country are preparing for a four-win season and what they consider to be an “inevitable” top-five pick in the 2010 draft.

Pardon the pun, but hold your horses Broncos fans.

Yes, the Broncos haven’t shown much in their 0-3 start to the preseason. Yes, Jay Cutler got the last laugh this past Sunday. Yes, Kyle Orton’s hurt and so is backup Chris Simms. Yet, I do not worry, and that is because of the new head coach that has become the scorn of many in Denver.

Let’s look back at the 2003 version of the New England Patriots, the team which McDaniels worked for from 2001-2008. While Tom Brady was able to start all 16 games, other parts of the team were decimated by injuries. 

How remarkable was it to see Troy Brown, a wide receiver, playing on both sides of the ball when he had to play in the secondary after injuries wiped out their defensive backfield. All in all, the Patriots started 42 different players during that season. McDaniels was part of that team.

The injury situation isn’t the only similarity between the two teams. Days before the regular season began that year, the Patriots cut Pro Bowl safety Lawyer Mulloy, prompting many fans to second guess head coach Bill Belichick (yes, that Bill Belichick). 

Mulloy went on to sign with division rival Buffalo, whom the Patriots faced in their season opener, and were promptly shutout by the Bills in a 31-0 shutout. Sound familiar? (For posterity, the Patriots reversed the score and shut the Bills out 31-0 in the regular season finale).

Now, I am not saying the 2009 Broncos are going to light the NFL on fire and win the Super Bowl like the 2003 Patriots. Far from it. What I am suggesting though is to give McDaniels a chance. You don’t work in one place for eight seasons and not have a significant part of that employer’s culture rub off on you. The New England system worked there, and it just might work in Denver.

I also realize the two teams were not on the same level talent-wise either, but consider this: At the start of the 2003 season, Brady was not yet the Tom Brady. He led the miracle run to the Super Bowl in 2001, but followed that up with a 9-7 no playoffs season in 2002. While I am not necessarily predicting Brady-like greatness for Orton, give him some time. He did have a better record than Cutler did after 32 starts.

Even though his title was “defensive assistant” for the Patriots in 2003, a year before he became the quarterbacks coach who turned Tom Brady into THE Tom Brady, McDaniels saw what the “team first” concept he is now bringing to Denver can do.

As part of the 2003 staff, McDaniels witnessed arguably one of Bill Belichick’s best coaching performances of his career. He was only 27 at the time, but an impression had to have been made on the young man. 

So Broncos fans, give McDaniels some time to work his magic. Let him weed out the egos and put team players in place. With some luck, maybe this season will end on a “Rocky Mountain High.”

Count On It: Packers Playoff-Bound in ’09.

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The only two certainties in this life are death and taxes.  There are no certainties in the NFL. As ESPN’s Chris Berman says, “That’s why they play the games!”

Now, normally I hate making out and out predictions and telling people to ‘take it to the bank.’  It is a rarity that I feel something that much of a sure thing.  Right now though, is one of those rare moments where I tell you to ‘take it to the bank’:

The 2009 Green Bay Packers are going to the playoffs.

I’m not going to go and assign them a record or predict how far they go in the playoffs.  Let’s wait for the team to make it first.  However, I think it is a near certainty that the Packers make the postseason this year.   

Why such confidence?  First, the team lost seven games by four points or fewer in 2008. To go 0-for-7 in close games like that is a rarity in the NFL and one has to think because of the law of averages, the Packers have to fare better in 2009.

Speaking of those close losses, one of the big reasons for those was that the defense couldn’t maintain a lead to save their lives.  With new defensive coordinator Dom Capers bringing his aggressive 3-4 scheme to town, and judging by the unit’s performance in the preseason, one has to believe that the inability to maintain a lead will not be as severe an issue this season.

Aaron Kampman made a much quicker and smoother transition to linebacker and with the addition of big man B.J. Raji, the Packers should have no trouble generating turnovers, as has been evident throughout the preseason.

The inability to close out close games also falls on the lap of QB Aaron Rodgers.  Despite an outstanding season statistically in 2008 as a first year starter, the most common critique of Rodgers last season was that he could not win games in the closing minutes.   

Now to be fair, Rodgers himself has publicly taken the blame for those close losses, even though the defense deserved its share of the blame as well.  You know Mike McCarthy and Rodgers worked intensely on the two minute drill in the team’s off-season ‘quarterback school’ as well as into mini-camp and training camp.  Rodgers should be much better in this area in 2009.

Another reason why the Packers have such a great chance of making the playoffs ironically comes from what was likely their greatest distraction from last season: former QB Brett Favre. 

When McCarthy and Rodgers say that the two Viking games this year will be like any other game, they are lying. This team will be fired up on October 5 and November 1.   In making his return to the NFL with the Vikings, Favre is intent on sticking it to Ted Thompson and showing that he made the wrong decision in trading him to the Jets, even with Favre publicly denying that is reason he came back.

Favre thinks the Packers can’t survive without him, and he is likely to learn that no man is above the team even when the head coach bends over backwards to accommodate you (I’m looking at you, Brad Childress).  Sweeping the Vikings would go a long way towards the Packers’ playoff hopes, and this year the pressure is squarely on Favre, not the Packers. 

Advantage: Green Bay.

The Packers have a very favorable early schedule.  Should they need to work out any last minute kinks in the new defense, the Packers face some fairly weak opponents (Chicago aside) in the first seven games of the season.  Jumping out to a 5-2 or a 6-1 start will benefit the Packers greatly as the schedule gets tougher down the stretch.

Also, despite an unusually early bye in Week Five, the Packers get what basically amounts to a second bye week between weeks 12 and 13 thanks to playing on Thanksgiving in Detroit on November 26 and then not having another game until December 7 at home against Baltimore.

This allows the team to break the season down into stretches of four, seven and five games each.  While it’s not the same as breaking the season down into four quarters, it will still help the trainers with any injuries the team will face during the 2009 campaign. 

Again, while there are no guarantees in the NFL season, the Packers have shown enough this season that even the worst betting man on the planet would place strong odds on the Packers making a return to the postseason this year and still hit pay dirt. Don’t do that though.  Unless you are in Delaware.

The Jaws Of Victory: Beware The 2009 Packers

Just when you thought it was safe to go back to the Frozen Tundra….

Despite recent events, it is no longer worthwhile talking about a decrepit, beat up 1991 Buick Skylark when the current model of the Green Bay Packers offense is a 2005 Dodge Viper.  As hard as it is to believe, Aaron Rodgers has been lighting up teams all preseason and yet still everyone is talking about Favre and his wannabe down in Chicago.  What does Aaron Rodgers have to do to get a fair shake around here?

As much as all the fans are raving about Rodgers’ performance this preseason, no one in the mainstream media is paying much attention to number 12.  Everyone is salivating over Chicago’s supposed best quarterback since Jim McMahon, the number one overall pick in Detroit, and the arrival of He Who Shall Not Be Named in Minnesota.  Rodgers, meanwhile, still somehow flies below the radar despite becoming only the second quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 4,000 yards in his first season as the starter.

You know what? Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy don’t care.  In fact, I think they are both salivating right now.  The Packers’ first teamers are playing lights out on both sides of the ball right now, and no one is paying any attention. “Detroit went 4-0 in the preseason last year! Look how that turned out!” people are saying.

WRONG!  Detroit’s preseason wins were actually due to the fact that the second and third stringers won those games.  The Packers’ starters this year have gotten the lead and the second and third teams merely maintained it.  It’s apples and oranges.

The Packers should adopt the “Theme from Jaws” as the team anthem this year.  They are going to sneak up on teams that don’t even know they are coming, even though they should had they been paying attention in August.  There is going to be pain and suffering across the NFC North.

It’s not just Rodgers that’s could be devouring the competition, either.  The patchwork offensive line that McCarthy finally settled on a week ago has shown signs it will gel very quickly.  Defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ new 3-4 scheme has been implemented with minimum speed bumps and the unit is a turnover forcing machine (and Capers is allegedly only showing ONE THIRD of his playbook!)  Defensive end turned linebacker Aaron Kampman has shown he can still rush the passer with the best of them. 

Now , could all this hype turn out to be a major bummer for the Packer faithful? Sure.  The Packers are shaky at the quarterback position behind Rodgers, though Matt Flynn was showing promise in the preseason before injuring his shoulder.  Linebacker Nick Barnett has yet to see action and there is no guarantee he will return to his previous form before undergoing knee surgery last year, causing him to miss most of the 2008 campaign.  The punting situation looks grim, and a couple blocked punts could be the difference maker in a couple of games. The injury bug can strike any team at any time at any position.

Let’s be honest here: preseason predictions are based on a whole lot of ‘what ifs.’  People assume things will go one way or the other and they have no clue which was some things will go..  Despite this, I think we can guarantee one thing about the Green Bay Packers’ 2009 season:

It will be fun.  Duh dummm….duh dummmm…

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