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Three Up, Three Down: NFC Version
Published: May 17, 2009
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In part two of my “Three Up, Three Down” series, we’ll take a quick look at the NFC. To me, the NFC seems to be much more difficult to predict than the AFC, but I’ll give it a shot. Here are the six teams that I believe will have a different outcome this season than they had last season.
Three teams up
New Orleans Saints
The Saints came into 2008 with high expectations, only to finish the season at 8-8 and miss the playoffs. Injuries to Reggie Bush, Marquis Colston, Tracy Porter, Jeremy Shockey, and now ex-Saint Deuce McAllister derailed the Saints’ “playoff train”.
This offseason, the Saints added a veteran playmaker and a highly touted cornerback to their much maligned secondary. Darren Sharper will provide leadership to the secondary, while Malcolm Jenkins will join Tracy Porter and Randall Gay in a much improved secondary. Another season in the Saints defense should also be very beneficial to Jonathan Vilma and the Saints defense as a whole.
These reasons along the healthy return of the previously listed injured players will be enough to propel the Saints to a playoff birth in 2009.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks had owned the NFC West up to last season. This season, they look to reclaim their crown as the kings of the NFC West.
The return of Matt Hasselbeck and Walter Jones would be enough to for the Seahawks to contend in the NFC West. But the additions of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Corey Redding, and first-round pick Aaron Curry could be enough to put the Seahawks back on top of the division.
Aaron Curry with Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill could be one of the best linebacking corps in the entire NFL.
Also, the promotion of Jim Mora Jr. could be exactly what the veteran Seahawks team needs. Sometimes, a change of head coach lights a fire under some players, creates competition, and changes the same voice and message that players have heard for numerous years.
These reasons lead me to believe that the Seahawks will make the playoffs and possibly replace the Arizona Cardinals at the top of the NFC West.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers had a good enough offense and a good enough secondary to make the playoffs last season, but a leaky front seven proved too much for the Packers to overcome. But now, in the second season of the Aaron Rodgers’ era, the Pack will be back.
During the offseason the Packers decided to switch to a 3-4 defensive alignment, and they brought in 3-4 guru, Dom Capers, to institute the change.
With their two first-round picks, the Packers gave Capers two much-needed pieces to succeed. B.J. Raji gives the D-line a much needed playmaker, and Clay Matthews gives them a versatile linebacker that should thrive in this system.
Last season, Aaron Rodgers was in his first season as a starter and played very well. Now with one season under his belt, Rodgers should progress even more and lead an explosive offense in an offensively challenged NFC North.
For these reasons, I believe the Packers and their improved defense will make the playoffs.
Three teams down
New York Giants
The Giants defended their Super Bowl championship by going 12-4, but the lack of a proven wide receiver, questions at safety, the loss of a running back, and changes in the coaching staff will be too much for the Giants to overcome in a loaded NFC East.
Eli Manning was at his best when he had Plaxico Burress dictating what coverages he’d see. The loss of Burress and having no other proven wide out will cause Manning and the Giants offense to struggle this season, as they did after the loss of Burress last season.
The Giants did draft Hakeem Nicks in the first round, but rarely does a rookie wideout make a huge impact.
The Giants also lost Derrick Ward in free agency. With Brandon Jacobs’ physical running style often causing him to suffer injuries, Ward will be missed.
After their most recent mini-camp, Giants new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan expressed concerns about the safety position.
The losses of James Butler and R.W. McQuarters leaves the Giants thin and without much experience at the position. Leaving only Kenny Phillips, former seventh round pick Michael Johnson, and former Texan C.C. Brown at the back end of the defense.
Finally, the loss of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo could be huge. Not until his promotion to coordinator did the Giants defense excel.
Even though they are a very talented team, these losses and playing in a loaded division will cause the Giants to miss the playoffs in 2009.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers used an ultra-physical style of football to win the NFC South last season and the NFC’s second seed in the playoffs. But this season, the Julius Peppers’ situation and Jake Delhomme’s sometimes awful play will not allow the Panthers to repeat their feats of the 2008 season.
There have not been a lot of changes for the Panthers this offseason, so how can I say that a team that played so well last season will fall so far?
Two reasons:
1. The Julius Peppers’ situation. Not only will the Panthers be missing one of the elite defensive ends in the game, but the way both he and the Panthers are handling this situation will be a distraction for the team all season.
2. Jake Delhomme. His play during the playoffs was horrendous. He too often has shown a tendency to have just terrible games. Every quarterback will have off games, but when he is off, he can single-handedly lose a game.
And he’s not getting any younger.
I believe that the Julius Peppers distraction and Delhomme’s mind-numbing inconsistency will cause the Panthers to miss the playoffs this season.
Atlanta Falcons
This was the hardest pick to make. Actually, it’s the one that I have the most doubts about making, but what leads me to say that the Falcons will not make the playoffs is their defense.
When a team uses six of their seven picks on defensive players you know they have issues there.
At best, their secondary is average, with the projected starters being: Von Hutchins, Chris Houston, Thomas DeCoud, and Erik Coleman.
The losses of team leader Keith Brooking, run stopping D-lineman Grady Jackson, versatile linebacker Michael Boley, and cornerback Domonique Foxworth can’t help things either.
The Falcons defense is the reason that I expect the Atlanta Falcons to miss the playoffs.
2009 AFC North: Still Trying to Catch The Steelers
Published: May 11, 2009
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The AFC North provided both teams that played in the 2008 AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl Champions, yet the division appears to be getting stronger.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have been the team to beat in this division since the NFL aligned the teams in this current format and this year appears to be no different.
The Steelers suffered few losses in the offseason and continued to reload in typical Steeler fashion, through the draft.
They addressed their aging defensive line by adding Evander “Ziggy” Hood in the first round and Ra’Shon “Sonny” Harris in the sixth round.
The drafting of Keenan Lewis and Joe Burnett along with the signing of Keiwan Ratliff adds significant depth and playmaking ability to the secondary.
The signing of Shaun McDonald gives the team another sure-handed veteran, while third-round draft pick Mike Wallace gives an explosive playmaker at both wide receiver and kick returner. Also, Limas Sweed is expected to step up from what the Steelers’ consider a “red-shirt” season.
Youth was added to the O-line in the forms of third-round pick Kraig Urbik and seventh round-selection A.Q. Shipley.
Urbik, a mauler at guard, is expected to challenge for the starting right guard spot from day one.
Shipley, a former first-team All-Big 10 performer, reminds many in Pittsburgh of another undersized center, Mike Webster.
The Steelers also added a “Tank” at running back. Frank “The Tank” Summers is expected to make an impact as a short-yardage runner, fullback, and on special teams. In addition to “The Tank”, the Steelers hope Rashard Mendenhall can live up to the promise that the Steelers’ saw when they took him in the first round last year.
The Steelers and their mix of superstars (Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison), solid veterans (James Farrior, Aaron Smith, Willie Parker), and up-and-comers (Santonio Holmes, Heath Miller, LaMarr Woodley, Lawrence Timmons) should remain on top of the AFC North.
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore was one of the best teams in the AFC last season, if not the NFL. But it just so happens that they are in the same division as the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team that they could not find a way to beat in three meetings.
The Ravens lost some key pieces in the offseason, but did a solid job of finding replacements.
In free agency the Ravens added center Matt Birk. While Birk isn’t what he once was, he will be a solid addition to a young line.
After letting veteran cornerback Chris McAllister go, the Ravens signed corners Domonique Foxworth and Chris Carr along with re-signing Samari Rolle.
The Ravens looked to give promising quarterback Joe Flacco another weapon and did so by adding tight end L.J. Smith. He and Todd Heap should be a nice combo, if Heap can stay healthy.
In the draft, the Ravens traded up and got one of the best talents in the draft. Offensive tackle Michael Oher could have been a top-10 pick. The Ravens expect him to anchor their line for the next decade.
With their next three picks, the Ravens added some talent to an already stout defense.
Defensive end/linebacker Paul Kruger is a hard-nosed, versatile player that will get after the QB.
LaDarius Webb is a CB from a small school, but flashes a tremendous amount of talent.
Jason Phillips is another athletic LB that the Ravens expect to plug into their defense and reap the rewards of.
With their last two selections the Ravens added to two of their offense’s deepest positions, TE and RB.
Davon Drew is a raw TE prospect with some talent. He’ll sit behind a few veteran TEs and learn.
Cedric Peerman is a talented RB from the University of Virginia. With LaRon McClain likely seeing more time at FB in place of Lorenzo Neal, Peerman could battle for some carries with McGahee and Rice.
Baltimore will have a vicious defense and a powerful running game, but how far they can go will depend on the development of QB Joe Flacco and the passing game. To this point, I don’t believe that the Ravens have given Flacco enough weapons to overtake the Steelers.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals suffered through another disaster of a season, especially after the loss of franchise QB Carson Palmer. But after a stellar draft and a few free-agent signings, the Bengals have a look of a contender.
The Bengals have been busy this offseason. They’ve lost players such as wideout T.J. Houshmandzadeh, left tackle Levi Jones, and tackle Stacey Andrews.
Yet, they’ve added alot more, both though free agency and the draft.
The Bengals free-agent additions include wide receiver Laveranues Coles, defensive tackle Tank Johnson, and safety Roy Williams.
It’s through the draft, however, where the Bengals believe they’ve struck it rich.
First-round pick Andre Smith once was thought to be the top overall tackle, if not the top overall pick. Maturity and desire still are the main issues with Smith.
Rey Maualuga was expecting to be a first-round pick, but questions about his ability to be more than a two-down LB and his maturity caused him to slip into the second.
In the third round the Bengals chose defensive end Michael Johnson. Scouts were wowed by his athletic ability, but questioned his consistency and motivation.
With their next two picks the Bengals chose TE Chase Coffman and center Jonathan Luigs. Both were very productive in college and solid citizens, but the questions were about their ability. Can Coffman block and can Luigs avoid being over powered.
With the rest of their picks the Bengals added depth.
CB Morgan Trent from Michigan, RB Bernard Scott from Abilene Christian, FB Fui Vakapuna from BYU, DL Clinton McDonald from Memphis, and WR Freddie Brown from Utah.
The Bengals continue to possess plenty of talent (Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Keith Rivers, Leon Hall, Rey Maualuga, Andre Smith), but can they come together as a team?
Besides Carson Palmer, they all have their issues. The return of Palmer gives the Bengals a leader and an elite QB. Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him Ocho Cinco) has quieted down his “trade me” talk, but does his talent still overcome his attitude?
And can all of these troubled but talented players come together? Can Marvin Lewis get them to come together?
If they do, the AFC North and the NFL will have to take notice.
If they don’t, it could be another disaster in the ‘Nati.
My guess is that it’ll be somewhere in between, good enough for third in the AFC North.
Cleveland Browns
Just two years ago the Browns went 10-6. At this time last year they were the NFL darlings. TV, radio, and the internet were full of claims that this was the Browns’ year.
Poor coaching, injuries, attitude, and horrible play sent the Browns to the basement of the AFC North at 4-12.
Now they are rebuilding again. A new coach, new GM, and new players.
The Browns traded TE Kellen Winslow, likely lost WR Dante Stallworth to legal issues, and have been dealing with the Braylon Edwards trade talks. Heck, there were talks that the Browns may deal for ANOTHER QB, Jay Cutler.
The Browns also lost two of their better players from a horrible defense.
Safety Sean Jones to the Eagles and LB Andra Davis to the Broncos.
As for the draft, Cleveland had the No. 5 overall selection. Fans were dreaming about Aaron Curry, Michael Crabtree, or B.J. Raji. Fans, guess again! The Browns traded down, and then again, and again.
With their first-round selection, the Browns took center Alex Mack. Mack should start from day one and give the Browns a very formidable O-line.
In the second round, the Browns selected WRs Brian Robiske and Mohammed Massaquoi along with OLB David Veikune.
While Robiske is the anti-Edwards. He’s happy to be a Brown and he has good hands. Massaquoi reminds me of Edwards in one way—the drops problem.
Veikune also reminds me of someone—Mike Mamula. He wowed people with his ability, but his production doesn’t add up. He had a total of 16 sacks in the past two seasons at Hawaii.
If he was such a pass rusher shouldn’t he have had more against the level of talent Hawaii played?
In the fourth round, the Browns selected USC linebacker Kaluka Maiava. He should contribute right away on special teams and possibly develop into a solid LB.
With their three picks in the sixth round, the Browns took two small school CBs with tons of upside in Don Carey and Coye Francies and a productive RB in James Davis.
In free agency the Browns added LB Eric Barton, WR David Patten, WR Mike Furrey, CB Corey Ivy, CB Hank Poteat, TE Robert Royal, LB Bo Ruud, LB David Bowens, DT C.J. Mosley, OL John St. Clair, & OL Floyd Womack.
They also added DE Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam, and QB Brett Ratliff in the draft day trade from the Jets.
They are collecting players that have played before under Mangini that are nothing but role players. I understand that they will at least understand his system, but they still are probably the least talented team in the division.
Also, they need to trade either Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson. Settle on ONE QB! By going back and forth, both are getting ruined just like Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb. QB is a position where stability is needed, they are supposed to be the leader of the team.
The O-line should be very strong. LT Joe Thomas, LG Eric Steinbach, C Alex Mack, RG Floyd Womack, and RT John St. Clair. Actually the left side should be dominate.
They’ve signed several average WRs. I guess Mangini is going to the Patriots theory when they had Branch, Givens, etc…. But there is one thing that they don’t have… Tom Brady!
The Browns still have no playmakers on the defensive side of the ball besides Shaun Rogers. D’Quell Jackson is ok. They have two young CBs that could develop, then they drafted two more CBs with upside. So they could potentially be ok there.
Unfortunately for my wife, who is a Browns fan, I believe that the Browns will once again be in the basement of the AFC North. But to end on a good note, they should score more than they did last season.
